High season dates and prices

[TeachMe]

Just SLF, but went on-line to book tickets for this summer. Living in Asia I was not sure where to go this summer with the family. Europe to travel? Perth for mother? Vancouver for sister? I went on Cathay Pacific's web site and a ticket leaving Seoul via HK (leaving late June and arriving back late August) to London is $700 plus tax, to Perth is $600 plus tax, and to Vancouver is $2200 plus tax. WHY!!!! The distance is mostly the same and I can not expect airport costs in Vancouver are so much more than London. Is it high season dates? But if high season dates, why not to London and Vancouver, especially with the Olympics in London this summer? Airline pricing makes no logic.

Is there somewhere I can find out high season dates for various airlines to various destinations so I can plan better? I will play the ticketing game if I have to but do not want to waste time.

Thanks,

TME

[G-CPTN]

Do you really want to be in Britain during the Olympic Games?

[TeachMe]

Not that I want to be in London during the Olympics, as the continent would also be fine, but really I do not want to be in Seoul in the summer. This city is bad enough most of the year, but with the humidly, temperature, and dirt I just got to get out as much as I can between teaching semesters.

Mostly what I am looking for is insights on how tickets are priced so I know where to look instead of wasting hours. I have looked on the net but the hints there are really too simplistic like 'book early'.

Thanks

TME

[Gordy]

If Airlines Sold Paint

Customer: Hi. How much is your paint?

Clerk: Well, sir, that all depends on quite a lot of things.

Customer: Can you give me a guess? Is there an average price?

Clerk: Our lowest price is $12 a gallon, and we have 60 different prices up to $200 a gallon.

Customer: What's the difference in the paint?

Clerk: Oh, there isn't any difference; it's all the same paint.

Customer: Well, then I'd like some of that $12 paint.

Clerk: When do you intend to use the paint?

Customer: I want to paint tomorrow. It's my day off.

Clerk: Sir, the paint for tomorrow is the $200 paint.

Customer: When would I have to paint to get the $12 paint?

Clerk: You would have to start very late at night in about 3 weeks. But you will have to agree to start painting before Friday of that week and continue painting until at least Sunday.

Customer: You've got to be kidding!

Clerk: I'll check and see if we have any paint available.

Customer: You have shelves FULL of paint! I can see it!

Clerk: But it doesn't mean that we have paint available. We sell only a certain number of gallons on any given weekend. Oh, and by the way, the price per gallon just went to $16. We don't have any more $12 paint.

Customer: The price went up as we were talking?

Clerk: Yes, sir. We change the prices and rules hundreds of times a day, and since you haven't actually walked out of the store with your paint yet, we just decided to change. I suggest you purchase your paint as soon as possible. How many gallons do you want?

Customer: Well, maybe five gallons. Make that six, so I'll have enough.

Clerk: Oh no, sir, you can't do that. If you buy paint and don't use it, there are penalties and possible confiscation of the paint you already have.

Customer: WHAT?

Clerk: We can sell enough paint to do your kitchen, bathroom, hall and north bedroom, but if you stop painting before you do the bedroom, you will lose your remaining gallons of paint.

Customer: What does it matter whether I use all the paint? I already paid you for it!

Clerk: We make plans based upon the idea that all our paint is used, every drop. If you don't, it causes us all sorts of problems.

Customer: This is crazy!! I suppose something terrible happens if I don't keep painting until after Saturday night!

Clerk: Oh yes! Every gallon you bought automatically becomes the $200 paint.

Customer: But what are all these, "Paint on sale from $10 a gallon" signs?

Clerk: Well that's for our budget paint. It only comes in half-gallons. One $5 half-gallon will do half a room. The second half-gallon to complete the room is $20. None of the cans have labels, some are empty and there are no refunds, even on the empty cans.

Customer: Forget this! I'll buy what I need somewhere else!

Clerk: I don't think so, sir. You may be able to buy paint for your bathroom and bedrooms, and your kitchen and dining room from someone else, but you won't be able to paint your connecting hall and stairway from anyone but us. And I should point out, sir, that if you paint in only one direction, it will be $300 a gallon.

Customer: I thought your most expensive paint was $200!

Clerk: That's if you paint around the room to the point at which you started. A hallway is different.

Customer: And if I buy $200 paint for the hall, but only paint in one direction, you'll confiscate the remaining paint.

Clerk: No, we'll charge you an extra use fee plus the difference on your next gallon of paint. But I believe you're getting it now, sir.

Customer: You're insane!

Clerk: Thanks for painting with British Airways.

[ChrisVJ]

Actually it is all about the direction.

If you fly West to London you will be on the day you left all the way. Fare $700.

If you fly East to Vancouver you have to pass into yesterday for which the time lords charge $1100 plus taxes.

[Pitts2112]

You won't find the logic in airline pricing because it is buried deeply in the logarithms of a diabolically complex computer-controlled system. It is largely based on supply and demand, but responds to nearly-instantaneous input.

For instance, if you check prices on a flight on something like ebookers.com, don't keep going back to check it every day to see if it changes. It will. Because you're checking it. The computer recognizes your click as increased interest in that route, therefore increased demand, and it will incrementally raise the price accordingly.

I'm sure someone who wrote or controls these algorithms can be more specific, but it is so complex as to not really be worth trying to second-guess it, from what I can tell and what I do know about it.

[G&T ice n slice]

YVR is where a huge number of HKG Chinese have their second homes as their 'fall back' in case the relationship with Peking goes awry.

ergo there are a LOT of HKG residents flying back-and-forth between HKG & YVR
So CX run pretty well at 100% LF on the sector, so charge more or less what they want.

You might find that KE direct ex ICN or JL via NRT could well be cheaper.
Alternatively a roundtrip to SEA could be another option

[RevMan2]

You won't find the logic in airline pricing
Actually, you will.
You'll find that on routes or at times of high demand, the prices go up.. They'll drop when there's low demand.
There will also be a limited number of cheap seats and an almost unlimited number of expensive seats.
Roses on Valentine's Day, anyone..?

[Tableview]

You won't find the logic in airline pricing Actually, you will.You'll find that on routes or at times of high demand, the prices go up.. They'll drop when there's low demand.

True, but only in very fundamental terms as the algorythms are constantly updated and depend many factors which are not obvious to the layman.

http://www.pprune.org/passengers-slf-self-loading-freight/479087-why-dont-all-airlines-compete-route.html#post7074027

[StainesFS]

Try the website named after Wolfgang Mozart's middle name. It provides options much cheaper than the one you mentioned in your original post.

SFS

[Hartington]

This idea that frequent checking of prices is, in my view, an urban myth (at least as far as agencies are concerned). People like ebookers use a cacheing technique. They have to because the GDS that they deal with don't want the agency constantly asking the same question (it plays hell with their ability to provide a fast response). Indeed, the GDS charge over use fees. And there are similar arrangements in place between the GDS and airlines for the same reasons.

So what happens is that the user asks a question and the agency consults its' cache of availability data. If they haven't renewed the data for a period of time they may well ask the GDS, who in turn will consult their cache and may ask the airline. Since only the airline controls inventory you can see the fact that the question may never even reach the airline cannot affect the number of seats the airline is allocating at a given fare.

In fact, you can see the reverse effect in play when you get offered a fare and then, when you go to commit and the agency finally gets to go to the GDS and airline you can get the dreaded "that fare isn't available, how about this one" (usually more expensive) because they have found out the cahced data is incorrect.

The airlines have all sorts of ways of determining what to charge for a seat. The speed of sale is certainly one but generally they are looking at historic data for the same period (and they can, for instance, tell the difference between an early Easter and a late one and what effect that has on sales) in previous years. They will look at special events such as the Olympics. They consider holidays, business patterns, bank holiday Mondays vs ordinary Mondays. Mondays in March vs Mondays in August.

One critical thing to bear in mind is that it's not just the city pair you are looking for. Hong Kong to Vancouver might well be a high ethnic travel route but if (and I'm making ideas up here) August also happens to be a time when Thais want to visit Vancouver and HK Chinese don't then Cathay may well offer fares BKK-HKG-YVR and set the fares HKG-YVR higher to actively discourage bookings.

Then there are groups. One large group on either half of your round trip can have an effect. If they've taken all the cheaper fares .....

Basically they have all the aces. Good luck.

[ExXB]

You won't find the logic in airline pricing

The perfect price for an airline is the price that the passenger is prepared to pay. Not a cent higher, not a cent lower.

Perfectly logical (for any business).

[ChrisVJ]

We are just going through the booking thing for May. Trips of a thousand miles in Asia for about $50, but Vancouver to Seattle is $375? That's nearly as much as we're paying for Seattle to Saigon! Well, not quite but it is half!

[PAXboy]

Trade fairs, conventions and regional sporting events can also havoc with prices. Further, bear in mind that the wonder of the internet is that all the carriers can also see what 'striking' prices are being listed by each other - all the time. If they want to make sample bookings to see what prices they are competing with, they can do it every hour. This tends, in my view, to push prices up, not down.

May I suggest that, when looking at prices, also look carefully at the indirect routings? For example, you might discover an indirect that enables a long weekend somewhere you haven't been and is better priced. Since most folks want to go direct between 'city pairs' they cost more. Or not, if any of the above mentioned factors come into play!!

[jackieofalltrades]

Gordy, that was an excellent analogy!

[TeachMe]

Thanks for the thoughts, and the point about checking back often. I will be sure to delete cookies. As to the paint thing, I have seen that before and it is too true! About many Asians living in Hongcouver.... my high school was about 95% Asians in 1985, and was not very appropriately named Britannica :)

I understand price is largely based on demand, but almost 3 times more expensive to Vancouver than London just seems a bit more than demand. Lots of Asians travel to Europe in summer so I can not see that being the reason. How much does tax matter. I ask because it seems that from Seoul to fly via HK (CA) or Tokyo (JAL) is less expensive, while for friends in Japan it seems to be cheaper to fly via Seoul (KAL). Is that tax or some non-stop 'premium'?

I am rather flexible in my destinations and plans, but what I really want to know is where can I expect it to be less expensive so I know when to think about looking for what destinations. Back to my original post, is there any good source for finding out when high season is, or alternatively, any good source for finding out average ticket prices between destinations at different times of the year? If I knew the statistical pattern of prices I could then know better when to look for tickets to where? (does that make sense???).

My other question is about a ''sweet-spot' time wise for bookings (6 months, 3 months, 2 months ahead - ignorring last minute luck of the draw things) where prices are statistically at their lowest?

Thanks for all the advice

TME

[WHBM]

Airline pricing makes no logic.

Is there somewhere I can find out high season dates for various airlines to various destinations so I can plan better?
Actually airline tcket pricing, with quite rare exceptions, normally makes considerable sense, in terms of maximising their revenue. It s far and away the most developed revenue approach there is. Just because all the parameters are not readily understandable to the end user does not mean it is not quite logical in its primary goal, which is to maximise revenue overall. It took the airlines themselves many years and much cost in analysis to get to the current position, and refining it continues.

I do notice that with bland comparisons there are very often key bits missed out, like one of the examples not staying over a weekend whereas the others do so, or one has some trade show or other high demand element associated with it.

[PAXboy]

TeachMe You ask two further questions: Where can you find out about high season and when is the 'sweet spot' to book.

In my opinion the answers are: Nowhere and Never.

Firstly because High Season now means anything the carrier chooses to call High Season. Whilst school holidays and the latitude of the sun remain the key arbiters, due to the factors mentioned in the thread, the season can move.

Secondly, due to the carrier's computers reviewing prices ever day - they have eliminated the sweet spot. There used to be one, when the carrier manually checked the sold/unsold and the time to departure, made a mgmt decision and telexed changes to their sales offices and agents. But that was a long time ago!!

[SeenItAll]

Why is the bellyaching going on. To me, $700 to London or $600 to Perth seem cheap. $2200 to Vancouver seems expensive. Stop complaining, these prices make your decision easy. Go to London or Perth and save $1500 per head to have a great time while you are there.