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View Full Version : Conflict looms in South China Sea oil rush


Lyneham Lad
28th Feb 2012, 19:16
In a Reuters report (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/02/28/us-china-spratlys-philippines-idUKTRE81R03420120228):-

(Reuters) - When Lieutenant-General Juancho Sabban received an urgent phone call from an oil company saying two Chinese vessels were threatening to ram their survey ship, the Philippine commander's message was clear: don't move, we will come to the rescue.

Within hours, a Philippine surveillance plane, patrol ships and light attack aircraft arrived in the disputed area of Reed Bank in the South China Sea. By then the Chinese boats had left after chasing away the survey ship, Veritas Voyager, hired by U.K.-based Forum Energy Plc.

But the tension had become so great Forum Energy chief Ray Apostol wanted to halt two months of work in the area. "They were so close to finishing their work. I told them to stay and finish the job," Sabban, who heads the Western Command of the Philippine Armed Forces, told Reuters at his headquarters in Puerto Princesa on Palawan island. Over the next few days, President Benigno Aquino would call an emergency cabinet meeting, file a formal protest with China, and send his defense secretary and armed forces chief to the Western Command in a show of strength.

The March 2011 incident is considered a turning point for the Aquino administration. The president hardened his stance on sovereignty rights, sought closer ties with Washington and has quickened efforts to modernize its military.

A year later, Forum Energy is planning to return. Top company executives told Reuters the company intends to sail to Reed Bank within months to drill the area's first well for oil and natural gas in decades, an event that could spark a military crisis for Aquino if China responds more aggressively.

The U.S. military has also signalled its return to the area, with war games scheduled in March with the Philippine navy near Reed Bank that China is bound to view as provocative.

"This will be a litmus test of where China stands on the South China Sea issue," said Ian Storey, a fellow at the Singapore Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. "They could adopt the same tactics as they did last year and harass the drilling vessels, or they might even take a stronger line against them and send in warships."

A decades-old territorial squabble over the South China Sea is entering a new and more contentious chapter, as claimant nations search deeper into disputed waters for energy supplies while building up their navies and military alliances with other nations, particularly with the United States.

Reed Bank, claimed by both China and the Philippines, is just one of several possible flashpoints in the South China Sea that could force Washington to intervene in defense of its Southeast Asian allies.

As if there are not more than enough actual/potential flashpoints already. :(

Lonewolf_50
28th Feb 2012, 20:38
This sort of thing was obviously on the horizon as far back as 1991.

One of the things I used to confuse people with at cocktail parties was

"Ever been to the Spratly Islands?"

It was one of a number of places in the SCC that China was trying to establish rights to, at the expense of countries like Viet Nam and the Philippines.

It's only gonna get worse. Those of us who learned to see the world economic model as based on the Pacific Rim in the future (put yourself in Pearl Harbor, or Wake, as your center point, and see the area of interest as all of the shores the Pacific reaches from there) were shouted down as China grew into a serious threat during the 90's.

The money was too good, ya see ...

And the rest of what I have to say is :mad:

Sir George Cayley
28th Feb 2012, 20:46
A Spratly to catch a Mandarin?

SGC

Daysleeper
28th Feb 2012, 21:01
In the early 90's I got marked down on a course for suggesting the south china sea islands would spark a major war. still it was the same tutor who said cultural ties had prevented the cold war turning hot.

Lonewolf_50
28th Feb 2012, 22:38
I feel you pain.

kluge
29th Feb 2012, 00:21
An interesting view on the topic from the same timeframe :

http://twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_yoshihara_holmes.pdf

Heathrow Harry
29th Feb 2012, 15:54
ever seen a map of claims out there?

Everyone claims everything

could be the first war with 8 participants all fighting each other at once

Fareastdriver
29th Feb 2012, 18:01
One of the pre-occupations of Chinese foreign policy is righting what it considers are the wrongs of the last two hundred years. During the past millenniums it, with Japan, has been the major maritime power in the region with its influence stretching over the entire South China Sea. From the middle of the nineteenth century it was humiliated by every other major power in the world. This caused it to cede territory and have some of its major cities dissected with foreign powers having absolute control over their sections.

It is now the second largest industrial power in the world and it wants to correct the past and restore itself to what it feels that it was. The Communist Revolution restored the cities in 1949 and the end of the 20th Century saw Hong Kong return to Chinese rule. Macau was a different deal. That was a commercial arrangement between them and the Portuguese. Taiwan is a continuing sore in the side but they have not shelled the Matsu Islands for decades and they are looking for a diplomatic solution to that problem. They now feel that they have the economic power to correct the other injustices.

However: There are three quarters of a billion people who are looking at TV knowing that they are part of this enormous economy and they are demanding their share. China knows from its own and the Party’s history that revolutions start with dissatisfied peasants and it does not want another one. The government’s overwhelming objective is to continue their economic growth; they pumped half a trillion dollars into the economy recently to keep it going; and this is dependant on export markets. Upsetting your market base by pushing for your objectives militarily is not the way to do it.

Wait thirty of forty years. China is going to have its hands full until then.

Lonewolf_50
29th Feb 2012, 19:00
Nice article, kluge, thanks for sharing it.

West Coast
21st May 2015, 03:56
China warns US surveillance plane | Politics - Home (http://m.wmur.com/politics/exclusive-china-warns-us-surveillance-plane/33131068)

ExRAFRadar
21st May 2015, 04:22
Interesting Video, thanks for posting.

How legal is that ?

Assuming the area is not in anyone else's territory can anyone just build a pop-up Island and then claim territorial rights?

If you can forgive the Wargaming 'geekiness' my brethren have been discussing this here.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3843742

ShotOne
21st May 2015, 10:49
"Just build a pop-up island and claim territorial rights.." As opposed to slaughtering or enslaving the inhabitants of an existing island then claiming territorial rights, like in the good old days?

rh200
21st May 2015, 11:07
P-8 snooping around the new Chinese islands

I hope there isn't a repeat of the last time there was an "incident" with a survalience plane. I'm presuming the P8 has a lot better goodys, would be puuurrrrfect for the Chinese to get hold of.:p

ExRAFRadar
21st May 2015, 13:00
As opposed to slaughtering or enslaving the inhabitants of an existing island then claiming territorial rights, like in the good old days? At least in the good old days it was a hard fought battle that our glorious troops and superb commanders won against well equipped and blood thirsty naked nasty types , delivered to the distant shores by a Navy that was the envy of every land locked country in the World. The World I say.

Which we then, by the grace of our Divine Providence, bought piece and prosperity to those savage races who simply had no concept of bagging a brace of the local wildlife before tea and cucumber sandwiches at mid afternoon, followed by a bit of a siesta before a decent round of 'shag the local totty' while we watched the sun never go down with a large G&T in hand. Lords and Masters of all we surveyed.

Ah, I miss the good old days

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiBwh-GKIOs

megan
21st May 2015, 15:02
bought piece and prosperityNot too sure about that, I thought all the locals were stoned off their faces with the opium the Brits grew and imported from India.

ExRAFRadar
21st May 2015, 18:21
Yep, Fubar'd that bit. I of course meant 'Brought Peace.....'

Opium? Brits Grew? Sir, pistols at dawn.

KenV
21st May 2015, 19:10
Opium? Brits Grew? Sir, pistols at dawn.

First Opium War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Opium_War)
Second Opium War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Opium_War)

Fareastdriver
21st May 2015, 19:20
It all comes down to the fact that the South Eastern Continental Shelf is awash with gas and oil. The more territory that you can claim, by fair means or foul, means that you get a bigger portion of it. China needs lots of it and it is now in the position where it can shoulder aside other countries to get it. You cannot blame them. The islands in dispute have had minimal, if any, development in recent histrory so as far as they are concerned they can go back a thousand years, or even more, for written confirmation from some Chinese admiral who landed and claimed it for the Emperor.

How far back do the maritime laws of possession go? The Chinese can go back 3,000 years.

SMT Member
21st May 2015, 21:56
How far back do the maritime laws of possession go?

As far back, I suppose, as the strength of your armed forces will allow. That is to say, the Royal Navy is unlikely to decide it would be prudent to light all 10 boilers it has on call and steam across the Atlantic to rectify an earlier mistake, as the ex-colonials have quite a few more, and substantially more radiant, boilers to light up if need be.

Which is also why the PRC Navy will continue with the island creating business, until such time the ex-colonials drop by with Task Force and show them who's the boss.

dagenham
21st May 2015, 22:10
Intersting topic.... Reminded me of reading dale "flight of the old dog" brown's skymaster novel.... All set around a modern china with a carrier trying to retake the spratlys . The intelligence synopsis at the front demonstrates how much of this was going on nearly twenty years ago.

Lonewolf_50
21st May 2015, 22:19
This is all one of the reasons why the government in Vietnam and the US have been doing better with relationship since the 90's. They realize that without a big friend, even though we have a not so pleasant history with each other, is handy when the 800 pound gorilla in their area bellows and stomps about.

Interesting times, folks, interesting times.

SARF
21st May 2015, 22:29
No need for blighty to worry. .. East of Eden old chap, nor our show anymore...
Let them all get on with it, we can sell everyone the hardware required , I'm sure we can knock out carrier a year out, or three years if you want a catapult..
We can join in at the endgame , perhaps for a few strategic islands and favourable trade deals. Make a nice change

rh200
21st May 2015, 23:48
This is all one of the reasons why the government in Vietnam and the US have been doing better with relationship since the 90's. They realize that without a big friend, even though we have a not so pleasant history with each other, is handy when the 800 pound gorilla in their area bellows and stomps about.

Yes its amazing how friendships can develop when there's a much bigger percieved "evil" :p.

I often wonder how the post war years would have gone for Germany and Japan if there wasn't the Soviet threat.

Wokkafans
22nd May 2015, 06:07
An audio transmission recording of the P-8 encounter is available here:

https://soundcloud.com/marcus-weisgerber-1/p-8-encounter-with-chinese-navy

With a Navy video of the "pop-up" islands here:

Navy Unveils Video of Manmade Islands in South China Sea - Defense One (http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2015/05/navy-unveils-video-manmade-islands-south-china-sea/113443/?oref=d-topstory)