Black Buck Alternatives

[Coochycool]

I'd appreciate input from those who have knowledge of the considerations made for possible solutions to the RAF being "caught short" in the Falklands crisis. Black Buck using the Vulcan evolved as the solution, but what other possibilities were there if the Vulcan had been rendered irretrievable for example? Was the Victor ever considered in the bombing role? How unfeasable a prospect was this? Had the Victors' bomb bays been rendered thoroughly unusable for example? I believe the Buccaneer was rapidly discounted as it would run short on engine oil. But what if that had not been the case? What would have been the next limiting factor? Could it have been fuelled up enough given its bomb bay tanking capacity? And what would/could it have carried?

Bit leftfield I admit but its a daydream query which refuses to disappear.

[Pontius Navigator]

You really need a Victor man to answer this question. I have several thoughts but will only cover ne for the moment.

The Victor 2 was never a bomber after 1968 :). It is unlikely that they ever made bomb carriers or installed the wiring for the bomber role. While the Victor 1 was a bomber and its carriers might have fitted it is unlikely that there would have been any available.

[Coochycool]

Makes sense. It was a missile man. Thankyou.

[pr00ne]

Pontius Navigator,

"The Victor 2 was never a bomber."

Really? So just what were 100 and 139 Sqns doing with the Victor B2 at Wittering between February 1962 and December 1968? Who was the Bomber Training Flight training crews for after the OCU wound up and the B1A squadrons disbanded or went tanker?

I know they went on to Blue Steel but not straight away.

[Tankertrashnav]

By 1982 the only Victors flying were the K2s. I was on 214, the last K1/K1a squadron, which was disbanded in 1977, with all the aircraft being withdrawn in that year.

The bomb bays of the K2 were totally occupied with two very large fuel tanks. In the case of the K1 these held around 25,000 lb of fuel and I assume the figure was around the same for the K2. Removing these in some sort of retro-fit to the bombing role would not only have been a massive undertaking requiring an extensive redesign of the fuel system, but would have also have reduced the aircraft's unrefuelled range by around 25%. All in all I reckon a non-starter.

P-N I'll introduce you to a few ex Victor 2 bomber guys at Newark - they may wish to have words with you ;)

[Coochycool]

Much appreciated. Begs another question too. How far stretched was the Victor force at that time in getting the Vulcan within reach? 19 aircraft wasnt it? I know the story of the in-flight ballet dance whilst they debated how much to transfer during Black Buck 1. And the emergency relaunch towards missions end. But how many surplus Victor aircraft would have been available had the bomber aircraft's reach not been so far? (given normal servicability expectations at the time). Would there have been extra Victors available to get a Bucc there for example? Tough one admittedly.

[Lima Juliet]

How about a modified Nimrod? That might be an interesting thing to speculate on...

[Milo Minderbinder]

I suppose we could have emulated the Argentines and started chucking bombs out of the back of a Hercules by hand
What was the name of the tanker they hit - was it Hercules? Bomb didn't go off, but the ship got scuttled as too dangerous to defuse

[Coochycool]

Thats the kind if idea I'm talking about. Might sound crazy but I wouldnt have wanted to be the Air Officer who had to tell the PM the RAF was impotent. So all sorts of scenarios must have been considered, however fleetingly. Every jet jockey must have got their slide rule out, guessed at the tanking available, and exhaled rapidly. So would they for example have considered commandeering a BA 747, ex-RAF crew included, and bombed it up? Extreme I admit, but it must have been promptly rejected and other scenarios brought to the fore. But which? Like what weapon load might Nimrod have delivered? Would it have been worth the effort? And survivability?

[Lima Juliet]

Looks like there was a plan B after all...

Meanwhile, urgent modifications were carried out on Nimrods to fit them with ex-Vulcan air refuelling probes, a version then designated MR.2P. The MR.2P was also given the ability to carry Sidewinder AAMs, Stingray torpedoes, AGM-84A Harpoon ASMs, and 1000lb iron and cluster bombs. In the event, none of these weapons was actually used in action.

XV229 made the first flight with just the AAR probe installed on April 27th 1982; this was enough to allow crew training to be carried out. The actual fuel plumbing was very much a jury-rigged affair, but it allowed probed MR.2s to fly missions lasting up to 19 hours, refuelling from Victor tankers.

LJ :ok:

[Archimedes]

Coochy - hitting the airfield wasn't seen as a necessity.

The Chief of the Air Staff, Sir Michael Beetham, told the war cabinet that the RAF could mount a Vulcan raid on Stanley, but, that all things considered, he would only guarantee shutting the airfield with a minumum of 25 sorties, and preferably 50. He didn't think this necessarily the most practical approach, but if it was thought to be of help, then the RAF would crack on and do this.

The RN leadership, however, thought that a raid might very well persuade the Argentines to divert some of their Mirage IIIs to a defence of the homeland role, further weakening the ability of 8 Grupo to contest control of the air against the Sea Harriers. They therefore told Sir Michael that the raid could be of help, and would he mind awfully....?

There is, of course, a certain irony in this - for 30 years, we've had the joys of reading an array of comment - not all of it by Sharkey Ward - explaining that the RAF feared that without the Vulcan raid, they'd not play a part in the war (utter nonsense if you look at what the AT, AAR, MPA fleets got up to, and there were others, of course), and this would represent an existential threat to the service, etc, etc. Yet the most enthusaistic proponents of the idea of launching a series of Vulcan raids in a bid to achieve some sort of strategic/operational level effect wore dark, not light blue...

The net effect of this is that had the Vulcan not been available, there wouldn't have been an Op Blackbuck. The Argentines wouldn't have increased 8 Grupo's AD of Argentina tasking and more fighter sweeps - albeit limited in duration for want of AAR - would've occurred. Whether this would've simply offered the SHARs more targets, or whether it'd have made Corporate more difficult either through more air-air combat, or simply the presence of Argentine fighters more often prior to about 18 May (when the Mirage IIIs began to increase the number of fighter sweeps over the islands, albeit never managing to get their limited duration sorties to coincide with the SHARs' slightly less-limited duration sorties) is open to bar room speculation and nothing more.

Despite the Nimrod being fitted for 1,000lb bombs and CBU, I can't help thinking that the apparent lack of a strategic imperative to bomb Stanley at the time the decision to launch Blackbuck was taken would probably have seen any bombing of the airfield conducted by SHARs and the GR3s (as actually happened) with perhaps a greater weight of attack there had it become clear that the Argentines had taken steps to forward based A-4s/Daggers/SuE there.

[MAINJAFAD]

The Argie Herc 'bomber' back in 1982 didn't chuck bombs out the back, but dropped them off a MER fitted to a modified starboard wing tank plyon.

Photos Here (http://www.dagger-lamarinete.com.ar/hercules.htm)

[Dan Winterland]

Having flown the Victor K2, it think reverting it back to a freefall bomber would have been too problematic. There was nothing of the original bombing kit left, except for the NBS navigation system.

Th Black Buck missions required 11 victors on the outbound leg (two as reserve) and five for the return. Of course, some of these aircraft flew twice each mission. The Victor fleet at the time numbered 24, so this was a pretty impressive aircraft generation for such a long range operation.

The value of the Black Buck missions has been questioned frequently - particualrly by a certain vociferous SHAR pilot. A lot of this criticism is based considering the success of the raids in tactical terms. The strategic value of the missions is incalcuable - they sent a clear message to the Argentinians that they were in range. The effect on morale and redistribution of assets is hard to measure.

The Buccaneer was considered for the role and I gather there was a proposed modification to extend it's range. However, the Vulcan was the obvious choice and although the generation of airframes for conventional freefall missions wasn't easy, it was rapidly acheivable. The Nimrod was easily converted to carry freefall bombs - it had been one of it's design parameters. I gather it had dropped PGMs in later times.

And of course, the RN had Polaris. But I expect the use of that systems was considered a little extreme!

[Yellow Sun]

How about a modified Nimrod? That might be an interesting thing to speculate on...

The 1000lb bombs and CBUs were intended for anti-shipping use only, there was no intention to employ them in any other way. However, the Nimrod bomb bay was measured to assess the feasibility of carrying LGBs but it got no further than that.

The Nimrod was easily converted to carry freefall bombs - it had been one of it's design parameters. I gather it had dropped PGMs in later times.

I have never heard of that before. I can understand that it may have been mooted but would be very interested to hear more detail of any actual events.

YS

[cokecan]

was any thought given to equipping Vulcan with the Laser Guidence system welded onto the GR3's in the closing stages of the war (and absolutely not borrowed off the septics, oh no sirree)? surely a vulcan with 3 x 1000lb LGB's is going to use a much smaller proportion of the tanker fleet than a Vulcan with 21 x 1000lb...

once it became obvious that Vulcan was the only land-based aircraft that could/would be used for strike, were other weapons considered (i know Shrike ARM was fitted) like Harpoon, Martel, CBU ?

and, to be a pain, does anyone know why Nimrod was discounted from the land strike role when it had the capability to get that far and the kit to use relatively sophisticated weapons?

[Pontius Navigator]

If the Vulcan carried say 14,000lbs then it could also have carried a drum tank or 2 if the load was 7,000lbs. I don't know if it could have loaded 4 lgb and 2 drum tanks.

Also, IIRC the Victor did not have the Calc 3 ballistics computer?

[tornadoken]

pp00ne no.4: PN said "after 1968". No Yellow Sun Mk.2s were allocated to Wittering. The Sqdns were nominally formed 1/5/62 (100) and 1/2/62 (139) and were effective on Blue Steel early-1964 (100) and 24/10/63 (that's all as per Wynn's Official History. B.2s available to Wittering 1962-63 before those Blue Steel dates were rolled back into HP Radlett to be brought up to (then described as "Autoland mod") standard.

[Pontius Navigator]

pp00ne no.4: PN said "after 1968". No Yellow Sun Mk.2s were allocated to Wittering. The Sqdns were nominally formed 1/5/62 (100) and 1/2/62 (139) and were effective on Blue Steel early-1964 (100) and 24/10/63 (that's all as per Wynn's Official History. B.2s available to Wittering 1962-63 before those Blue Steel dates were rolled back into HP Radlett to be brought up to (then described as "Autoland mod") standard.

Tornadoken, thank you for that. I made the stupid mistake of believeing pr00ne without further checking. Had I thought for a moment I would have realised it was b0ll0cks as I recall one generation for a Mickey Finn where it took 3 days for the Wittering wing to reach its generation target so the Vulcans were stuck on their dispersals until the Thursday when 3 Gp came out to play.

Now, what about the Tornado? It entered service in Jan 82. As Archmedies pointed out, the aim was a force of force for deterrence. The very latest operational nuclear bomber being employed only 4 months after entering service would have sent an unmistakable message. To counter such a modern, high-speed, and more accurate aircraft would have needed even more aircraft held back at base. It would have been a real ball-buster of a sortie and possibly too high a risk for such an unproven aircraft.

Imagine having to do a couple of 18 hour sorties around the UK to see how many piddle packs were required.

[The Old Fat One]

Archimedes.

Well done mate...a coherent, intelligent and knowledagable post on the Falklands War. Something of a rarity on pprune. Note how it has been studiously ignored. Wouldn't want facts to get in the way of a good thread.

OP

No Vulcan, no black buck, no big deal. World would have been short of one very good book. Great effort by the crews/support teams for a job well done in any event.

[Yellow Sun]

Now, what about the Tornado? It entered service in Jan 82. As Archmedies pointed out, the aim was a force of force for deterrence. The very latest operational nuclear bomber being employed only 4 months after entering service would have sent an unmistakable message. To counter such a modern, high-speed, and more accurate aircraft would have needed even more aircraft held back at base. It would have been a real ball-buster of a sortie and possibly too high a risk for such an unproven aircraft.

A navigator was provided with the sortie parameters and a set of Tornado ODMs/performance data. He then retired to a quiet secluded room to contemplate and cogitate. When he emerged he is quoted as saying:

"Not really the Tornado's sort of war"

....and that was the last heard about it.

YS

[Lima Juliet]

Re: Tornado

You would have to mod the RB199s oil tanks as it would have run out of oil on the bomb run! That said, the F3 had bigger oil tanks and I once did 10hrs15min accross Alaska and Canada - yes, you're right it would be a real ball-buster even if the jet could be modded.

LJ

[500N]

I hope this isn't too much of a thread drift but IF the RAF had had F-111's,
could they have been used ?

[Pontius Navigator]

TOFO, I didn't !

[Pontius Navigator]

I hope this isn't too much of a thread drift but IF the RAF had had F-111's, could they have been used ?

Same sort of answer to the Tornado I would guess.

The Vulcan OTOH had already proven an ability to fly that distance and with only 3 prods, well half as far again as it happens albeit a Mk 1. That it only needed 3 prods would have been down to better sfc and the availability of diversions along much of the route.

[Easy Street]

The oil consumption rate of RB199s varies quite a lot. The maximum rate allowed before the engine is rejected is about 1 litre per hour, and it was this rate upon which the broad guidance of 8hrs max was written (10hrs with the slightly bigger tanks of the F3 engines corresponds to the rough same guidance). However a nice, tight, newly overhauled engine might only burn oil at a third of that rate - meaning a 24-hour sortie could be possible with careful selection of engines (not to mention selection of aircrew for arse padding and bladder size!). I would have liked a gauge to show the oil contents, rather than a caption to tell me I'd run out - and a sail for dinghy, to try and sail my way to safety if it all went wrong!

[Gentleman Aviator]

I was always curious about this when I flew Hercs.
My assumption was that with no more than one refuel, the Herc could get overhead, drop, turn back and hope to find a tanker again.
Couldn't be the hardest thing in the world to get reasonable accuracy with dumb bombs, and not beyond the ingenuity of the boffins to hook up navigation for the ordinance to ensure a DH.

If no tanker available, then descend to a reasonable altitude, drop a boat and some rafts out the back of Albert, then parachute the crew out into the oggin.
One aircraft lost, but crew safe, and bombs on target

Expensive, but far less logistics than is required to get a fuel-hungry jet bomber backwards and forwards to the Falklands.

Enormous fun, as well!

[Pontius Navigator]

GA,

The airbridge involved two tankers and one refuelling out of ASI but no prod on the return flight.

Before there was an airstrip on the FI the herc used to fly non-stop from ASI; I don't know but I imagine in would have needed at least a second prod on the way home.

And of course you overlook the shortage of speed and the need to fit ECM for flight in the MEZ, but back to Archimedes point; who would have been afraid of that fat albert might overfly down town BA with a tactical nuke.

Don't lose sight of the message.

[vascodegama]

The point you are missing PN is that on the airbridge although the C130 did not need a prod on the way home, it took off with max fuel from Stanley so , in the scenario suggested, of course it would need AAR on the way home. The other point is that the lack of common speed with the Victor made the planning a bit more difficult. How many prods did the Herc make on its long-range drops during the conflict?

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

Bone question but what provision would there be in a Herc to accurately (Stanley is uncomfortably close to the aerodrome for any impact errors) bomb visually or on H2S equivalent? Also, I imagine that a low ingress and climb to release height would have been a bit interesting.

Regarding Nimrods, I expect JEZ' could have given a reasonable RADAR picture but with little provision for visual aiming; not forgetting no immediate equivalent to NBS. Additionally, I find it difficult to see how an AAR equiped Nimrod could perform as efficiently as a built for purpose Vulcan. I also remember that we we were still involved in a hide and seek game with Uncle Ivan at the time. That didn't seem to leave many gash MR/ASW assets to mod/retrain for mud moving, particularly as ASW FFs and SSNs were pulled from NATO task to go South.

[Tankertrashnav]

Also, IIRC the Victor did not have the Calc 3 ballistics computer?

The Calc 3s were removed from the K1s around 1973, and were removed from the B2s as they were converted to K2s

[Pontius Navigator]

Vasco, perhaps you would care to point out where I missed the point?

I imagine in would have needed at least a second prod as this left open the option for a 3rd or even 4th?

lack of common speed with the Victor made the planning a bit more difficult

True but they managed with the Victor refuelling the long Herc and also on the long-range drops, a difficulty therefore recognised and dealt with.

[Pontius Navigator]

Bone question but what provision would there be in a Herc to accurately (Stanley is uncomfortably close to the aerodrome for any impact errors) bomb visually or on H2S equivalent? Also, I imagine that a low ingress and climb to release height would have been a bit interesting.

Time and distance which was a backup technique on the Vulcan.

Regarding Nimrods, I expect JEZ' could have given a reasonable RADAR picture but with little provision for visual aiming; not forgetting no immediate equivalent to NBS.

I think you meant Searchwater. Good ranging if no automatic steering and again a time and distance solution.

I also remember that we we were still involved in a hide and seek game with Uncle Ivan at the time. That didn't seem to leave many gash MR/ASW assets to mod/retrain for mud moving, particularly as ASW FFs and SSNs were pulled from NATO task to go South.

As the Nimrods were modified for AAR, crews trained, cleared for bombing, and were deployed south you statement is clearly inaccurate - see above.

[minigundiplomat]

I thought the alternative to the Black Buck Missions was Sharkey Ward on his own....least it is if you read his book.

[cazatou]

Mgd

Naughty naughty!!:D

[Lima Juliet]

...without a Sea Harrier as well. Just one man, a pistol and some dem charges!:ok:

[pr00ne]

Pontious Navigator,

"stupid mistake of believing ppr00ne?"

You said the B2 was NEVER a bomber, which was untrue. It WAS a bomber, it was introduced as a bomber but appears to have been left in permanent Blue Steel fit post 1964. So it WAS a bomber, fitted with the Calc 3 ballistics computer and serving as a bomber until retirement in December 1968.

I think what you meant to say was that it was never in free fall fit after 1964, therefore would not have been a candidate for free fall bomber use in 1982, a statement with which I would agree.

Alertken,

I responded to the post by Pontious Navigator that the "B2 was never a bomber" which is clearly not true. Even a Victor B2 in Blue Steel fit is still a strategic bomber. His point about the free fall fit however is totally valid in terms of potential use in 1982.

[Pontius Navigator]

pr00ne, agreed. It was still my stupid mistake, I didn't say you were stupid. I also meant bomber in the pure sense rather than missile carrier.

The B47 carried a missile and was also a free-fall aircraft. The B52 was also a bomber and missile carrier at the same time. In the case of the Blue Steel aircraft they were of course pure missile carriers unless extensively reconverted to FF.

I know some Vulcans were converted to carry BS and presumably Command had the foresight to store the original conventional bomb doors. Where the Victor bomb doors also left in storage or were the Mk 2s earmarked as tankers once the BS was taken out of service?

PS

As I recall the Mk 2s were not worked up in the conventional role until 1964. The Victor 1s had the Far East and The Vulcan 1s had the Near East (the Valiants before that). The Coningsby Mk 2s were the first to work up for the Far East in 1964. Prior to that both Victor 2 and Vulcan 2 were worked up in their primary role. It is possible therefore that the Victor 2 never had the 90-way kit installed.

[langleybaston]

C Met O STC was in a very early huddle on day one, and phoned me [P Met O 1 Group Bawtry, me looking after the Vulcans and Victors] when he emerged and told me "the bastards have done it", which I understood, and then "not that anyone thinks your lot are going to be involved".

Crappy forecast, boss.

[Pontius Navigator]

Is this moving into a where I was thread?

I was sitting behind Ewen Southby-Tailyour.

[sitigeltfel]

Couldn't one of those UAV things do the job?

[langleybaston]

my contribution, ill-conceived as it might appear to be, was intended to demonstrate the received wisdom on Day 1, nothing more, nothing less.

My recollection is that the Iron Lady was, however, a believer.

[vascodegama]

PN

Slightly misread your post. For the round trip missions the Herc needed more than one prod on the Southern leg in order to make an eventual RV going north again . The C130s used were fitted with internal tanks I believe. Clearly if the ac was going to carry any significant quantity weapons then the weight of the long range tanks(and their fuel) would have to be sacrificed in order to achieve the objective. Without the long range tanks then more prods would be needed further south from Victors which themselves would need extra brackets. As I said the different speed ranges would have made it all but impossible.

[ASRAAM]

There was also a plan B forming for the later Black Buck raids. A Victor was fitted with an A/R Martel in place of one of the wing pods, with a view to setting up carriage and wiring.

As far as I know it did not fly, mainly because some Shrikes became available from an unknown but friendly source, but possibly because of the difficulties encountered wiring it in.

[TEEEJ]

cokecan wrote

was any thought given to equipping Vulcan with the l@ser Guidence system ...

The Vulcan was trialled with Paveway.

http://www.pprune.org/military-aircrew/368129-bucs-black-buck.html#post4828182

http://www.pprune.org/military-aircrew/368129-bucs-black-buck.html#post4828336

From

http://www.pprune.org/military-aircrew/368129-bucs-black-buck.html

[Lima Juliet]

And more Nimrod stuff in the PPruNe archives:

To add to hairyeng's remarks (I must know you hairyeng!), during the Falklands the MR2 carried a retard 1000lb and cluster bombs (BL755?). A test was carried out to assess the suitability of the aircraft to carry the Paveway LGB (one Sunday afternnoon at Lossie IIRC) but I don't know if one was ever actually carried. The Harpoons had to be carried internally because of directional control considerations and as you know the existing hardpoints were utilised for the AIM 9 fit. Harpoon was never carried on the wing pylons.

They were interesting times.


And

A last bit of history- During the Falklands War it was decided to see if the Nimrod could drop 1000lb bombs and a trial was conducted on a range somewhere up in Scotland, Garvie Island I think. It never came to much but I can still remeber the sight that was fitted to the coaming in front of the co-pilot which consisted of a perspex sheet covered with graduated lines which the Co was supposed to use for ranging information. Not very effective in terms of accuracy I feel.

All on here http://www.pprune.org/military-aircrew/154474-more-non-nuke-knicker-knotting-kipper-kvestions-nimrod-asms-lgbs-etc.html

:ok:

[Pontius Navigator]

I can still remeber the sight that was fitted to the coaming in front of the co-pilot which consisted of a perspex sheet covered with graduated lines which the Co was supposed to use for ranging information. Not very effective in terms of accuracy I feel

This sounds very much like the CVBS. This grand-sounding piece of equipment was the Co-pilot's visual bombsight on the Vulcan. On the Vulcan it was actually calibrated using a form of collimation tube that was fitted into the nose some how. I watched one being done (in amazement). A vertical line could be used for tracking and horizontal lines for range.

The proper range line would vary with pitch which was proportional to speed and also depended on the 'standard' co-pilot adopting a standard seating position. Oddly it used to produce quite good results :)

[passpartout]

I've seen video of a Nimrod attempting to drop sticks of retarded 1000lb bombs. Looks like nobody involved in the trials consulted a QWI, who might have educated them about the perils of 'stores capture':ugh:

[Harley Quinn]

Surely stores capture is a function of aerodynamics, weapon dynamics and release speeds, I doubt any QWI would be sufficiently competent to predict its onset accurately on release trials. On a system that that has been trialled tested and documented- yes, but on a virgin system? probably not.

[Milo Minderbinder]

If you accept the theory that the objective of the Black Bucks was to simply spread fear and confusion through an implied threat to the Argentine mainland, could one of the longer-range Canberra variants have been used as an alternative? For instance could you hang anything useful off the wings off the Navy's T22s or a PR7?

[Harley Quinn]

Don't think Canberra had the range (unless for a 1 way mission) or a fuel system suitable for AAR; anyone know of any Canberra variant so equipped by any operator?

[Wander00]

Wondered how long before someone suggested a Canberra might, perhaps, possibly have been able to do something like it!

[Pontius Navigator]

Or Shacklebomber :}

[Milo Minderbinder]

I guess you could have pretended with the Canberra - announce there were some at Ascension and then launch a raid from Chile.....
Doesn't matter where they fly from, what matters is where the other side THINK they fly from

[Martin the Martian]

Very interesting thread. Could the Phantom have been used against Stanley?

What has struck me before is the question of timing. Had Argentina invaded in the autumn of 1982 rather than the spring it could have made a big difference to Operation Corporate.

On their side, they would have had a bigger stock of SuEs and Exocets to use against the Task force and, as the army's conscription programme went from January to December, their squaddies would have had double the amount of training that they did have.

On our side, the last of the Vulcans was planned to be out of service in June 1982, the first Tornado squadron had only just reformed, while as for the carriers, Hermes would have been decommissioned by then and Invincible would have been on its way to Oz, leaving just Illustrious to head south.

So, would the better option have been to wait until the following spring to build up our forces, possibly returning Vulcan and Hermes to service and talking nicely to Australia, gambling that Argentina would not have built up a big force on the Falklands, extended Stanley's runway to operate Mirages etc, or to go with what was available at the time?

[cokecan]

Martin the Martian wrote ''gambling that Argentina would not have built up a big force on the Falklands, extended Stanley's runway to operate Mirages etc, or to go with what was available at the time?''

'gambling'?

i cannot imagine what the odds that Argentina would not be extending the runway while we were running around the world buying up carriers would be, but i doubt they'd be very good.

in such a situation i can only imagine that we'd have had to go cap in hand to washington and litterally beg for help - possibly with the observation/threat that a British government that failed to re-take the FI would be out of office 15 minutes after a 'no confidence' vote was tabled, and that any incoming government would have a hard time explaining to the UK population why we were in NATO if NATO did nothing for us in our hour of need.

quite what the response would be i'm not sure.

[Pontius Navigator]

Martin interesting point about their training. Regardless of our forces, their actual timing meant the invasion was in late autumn with winter fast approaching. Maybe they gambled that we could not have reacted as quickly as we did and would have been faced with action in the depths of winter.

[Milo Minderbinder]

Remember there were other factors in any delay. First we would have had at least some AEW capability - six months later both Gannet and Sea King would have been available, though how the single Gannet would have got there is anther question. One way trip to an improvised airstrip maybe?
There would have been time to get Bulwark ready for sea - don't forget there were plans to refit her and send her south as part of the "second fleet" along with Illustrious, though if the boilers were really as bad as I've been told then that would have been a desperation move.
Then there was the alleged US offer to lend (sell??) us Oriskany - which was supposedly rejected on grounds of manpower and timing. However IF we had borrowed Oriskany, was there still enough residual knowledge around to get the Buccs and Phantoms flying off her in a six-month intensive period?
Presumably more Sea Harriers would have been delivered, and also more Chinooks, while the Army Lynx would have had time to be fitted with deicing gear (which prevented them from being used).
In many ways a delay in going south would have given us a number of equipment advantages.

[Mach Two]

Could the Phantom have been used against Stanley?

By 1982 the only air-to-ground that the RAF F4s could do was strafe. Also, it took about 9 hours to fly an F4 to Stanley from ASI (with at least 7 AAR brackets). I doubt the engines would have managed 18 hours there and back; most of the Speys would have run out of oil a long while before that.

[soddim]

With the benefit of hindsight (a luxury I know), knowing that often the weather over Stanley was clear enough, a C-130 modified to release LGBs could have self-designated using a Laser Target Marker. At 25,000 ft with CAP from the SHARs this could have provided very good results. Doubt if many people realised from the raw weather stats that there was a lot of similarity between Stanley and the north of Scotland - often gin clear but also 4 seasons most days.

[Martin the Martian]

"First we would have had at least some AEW capability - six months later both Gannet and Sea King would have been available."

Some interesting points, Milo, but the AEW Sea King only came about as a result of the Falklands war. So, still no AEW for the Task Force.

[Pontius Navigator]

Some interesting points, Milo, but the AEW Sea King only came about as a result of the Falklands war. So, still no AEW for the Task Force.

Quite.

Needs must and 6 month delay would have given time for the need to be satisfied. Same with the Gannet; that time would have been needed to get it ship shape.

I would agree that it was a moot point if they had recognised the need before the event. Similarly that they needed two ships, one with long range SAM and one with short range SAM, only seemed to arise when it was realised the ASM threat was different from the Soviet ASM threat.

[Milo Minderbinder]

Martin
The point I was trying to make was that we would have been better off if we had delayed our response - not if the Argentinians had delayed their attack.
If the Argentinians had waited, then Bulwark would have been scrapped, several frigates sold to Chile, Invincible to Oz, Stronmess to the USA (had Tarbatness already gone or was that also held back?), the Tide tankers pensioned off....

[Coochycool]

As originator of this thread and a newbie to this site, may I convey many thanks to all for the very informative and interesting posts to a query I thought might have been considered a tad too fanciful. But then the truth certainly smacked of being stranger than fiction in 1982.

Archimedes' eloquent synopsis sets the scene nicely, and it seems apparent from further contributions that Vulcan was the only serious contender, though Nimrod might have been able to do the job had political premise deemed it worth a go. Must admit though, a Canberra ex Chile would have been a really interesting strategy, there were of course similar dodgy dealings afoot at that time. Then the AOC might have trully been able to effect his 25 to 50 missions. I guess it begs the question though as to just how relatively difficult it was to get the Vulcan back into service from the knackers yard, knowing it to be a preferable optimised system. And I'd like to add to the "timing" arguments with regard to training and equipment considerations.

Nice gen, but then I think the real decider was simply that Galtieri's hide was on the line and his act of national unity was in desperation, surplus to strategic considerations. Luckily for us it would seem. With so many possible tangents to explore in this vain, I'd encourage others to continue as they see fit, its all good. Thanks though for the "Buccs for Black Buck" referal, of which I was not aware, that answers my main query.

Just thought I'd leave with the thought however of my reaction to the crisis as a 12 year old boy. The tabloids sold out before I could get a copy and I remember pestering my old man to go in search of one. "But why do you want that for son?". " Because they have a centrefold featuring all the task force assets". "What on earth do you want that for". "So I can cross them off when they get sunk". "Dont be so silly........"

[Lima Juliet]

Yes, but the Argies attacked in Autumn 1982 (for the Southern Hemisphere) hoping that they could entrench over the harsh winter expected in the FIs from May/Jun 82 for 4 months onwards (normally). Luckily for us Winter was later in 82 than in previous years.

[Milo Minderbinder]

actually on thinking about it, if they'd attacked six months later even the requisitioned Fleetwood long distance trawlers would have gone: Cordella, Farnella, Junella, Northella and Pict, were all sold overseas fairly soon after returning, and not replaced by Marrs.
I guess they weren't too important, but in terms of total number of hulls available it all adds up

[diginagain]

Cordella, Farnella, Junella, Northella and Pictwere all Hull trawlers, if you don't mind, Milo! ;)

[Pontius Navigator]

Milo, only one answer, STUFT :)

[kiwibrit]

The Tonados would have been very vulnerable in a low-level attack using JP233. At a higher level, the Vulcan was the right aircraft for the job.

[Milo Minderbinder]

in that sense, what was really needed would have been a Vulcan-launched stand-off JP233
Would it have been feasible to fit wings to a JP233 dispenser and glide / rocket it over the target if launched from a Vulcan bomb bay?
I realise this is fantasy world, but just sometimes the mad ideas work....

[Harley Quinn]

I do recall seeing a project brochure in the '80's for that very purpose, I suspect that crews tasked with this role pretty soon pushed back with 'you want us to fly straight and level for HOW long?'

[pr00ne]

What became JP233 was originally intended to be a powered munition. It was a joint US/UK project and destined for F-111 and Tornado. When economies reduced it to a free fall weapon the US pulled out of the project.

[Archimedes]

What became JP233 was originally intended to be a powered munition. It was a joint US/UK project and destined for F-111 and Tornado. When economies reduced it to a free fall weapon the US pulled put of the project.

...and bought the Durandal instead. If memory serves, the 20th TFW used some in 1991, and there is/was one on display alongside the Tornado the RAF donated tothe USAF Museum in Dayton (again, IIRC).

[soddim]

The vulnerability, kiwibrit, was very nearly a big issue for the Vulcan which probably only survived the first attack at 8000ft because they achieved the first principle of war - surprise. This was despite Hanrahan the night before reporting from Hermes that they were loading bombs on the Harriers - really? what for? Good job the Argies did not ask.

[Milo Minderbinder]

could the Hercules carry wing-mounted Durandal? In hindsight that may have been a better option?

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

had Tarbatness already gone or was that also held back?

Tarby was in Portsmouth (North Corner Jetty if I remember correctly) destoring for sale. I do remember the heated argument with the Stores staff who were diligently landing stores as planned and most reluctant to heed "put them back".

[Pontius Navigator]

Did the WEC in '74, visited Huntings. Asked about a powered JP233. They blanched as they thought we were in a position to cancel the overflight version.

[Coochycool]

Didnt realist that JP233 became available early enough, though you might imagine it to have been the weapon of choice. Begs the question as to how easy it would have been to integrate it with the Vulcan or Buccaneer? Perhaps a learned armourer could also enlighten me as to whether this system was ever tried in part ie. without a full complement of bomblets, for say weight considerations? And was it ever trial dropped from altitude?

[Archimedes]

could the Hercules carry wing-mounted Durandal? In hindsight that may have been a better option?

I'd want to check, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Durandal required a delivery at no more than 200ft and at around 550kts to be fully effective. I'm not entirely sure that sort of attack profile would necessarily be conducive to the good health of a C-130 crew, even with the benefit of surprise...

[Pontius Navigator]

A similar problem might have applied to Vulcan/JP233. The low height in a AAA zone would have been very dangerous. The delivery speed may also have been an issue.

With dumb bombs the time interval could be adjusted to ensure the proper interval between bombs. Did JP233 have a variable time dispense control?

The Vulcan doctrine was for a nuclear laydown attack as low and as fast as possible. With 117TUs a conventional laydown attack was feasible but not against a heavily defended target with AAA. There was a preferred option against AAA of 8,000 feet minimum.

Against medium SAM 18,000 feet was deemed acceptable, but all these were predicated against Soviet weapons in the early 70s.

[500N]

"I'd want to check, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Durandal required a delivery at no more than 200ft and at around 550kts to be fully effective. I'm not entirely sure that sort of attack profile would necessarily be conducive to the good health of a C-130 crew, even with the benefit of surprise..."


I looked up the Durandal when it came up in another thread (I think the Big Blu thread) and I thought it was a MINIMUM of 200 ft, but like you, I'd want to check :ok:

[Archimedes]

Sigh. Rewrote that bit of the post so that it read a little better, but made it factually incorrect (well, I think I did, but that's the bit I want to check).:ouch:

[Milo Minderbinder]

Wikipedia says min 200 feet, but we all know how accurate that is..

[kiwibrit]

Didnt realist that JP233 became available early enough

I must admit I am stretching my memory here. I can't remember whether it had started to come into service, TBH.

[Pontius Navigator]

KB, into service or not, we are into speculation here. Remember Vulcans hadn't flight refuelled for 18 years, they didn't have ARMs. The Nimrod was not AAR capable and I don't think our C130 was either.

We talked of Vulcans self-designating with LGB. 11 years later the Tornado still needed 3rd party designation with only the Bucc self-designating.

So some suggestions are realistic alternatives, others pure speculation on what we might have been able to do given 6 months more time. JP233 is possibly in that area as indeed would a Tornado deployment to ASI.

The deterrent value of an unknown aircraft like Tornado however was wholly different to the assumed capability of 4 Vulcan during Confrontation as we supposedly had a nuclear capabilty for 7 years.

[soddim]

There is a reason, Pontius, why it took so long to get a designator on Tornado - I know because of my involvement in the process. The problem was ignorance at the top - their headships were looking at Tornado weapon scores on controlled ranges and comparing them with the 50% CEP of Paveway 2. Typical range scores counted most bombs inside 30 feet as a DH whereas LGB scores were from a calibrated target and extremely accurate. If you compare apples and oranges you get a lemon and that was what Tornado was with dumb bombs.

[Pontius Navigator]

Soddim, can't disagree there. I know the Tornado was spectacularly accurate compared with the F111 with high level scores on the RBS ranges, so good that they were only invited once to the Giant Voice competition IIRC.

Now we know how good an RBS score was.

As you say the practice bombs scores were also a bit iffy. I have a picture in my log book of a direct hit on the raft at Epi. The bomb burst and splash were quite spectacular but had it been a 1000lb bomb and a tank the tankers would have had nothing to worry about.

[spiller82]

The trawlers, Cordella, Farnella, Northella, Junella, Pict were manned by Royal Navy personnel and were in Mine sweeper/Mine countermeasures role and carried the bomb disposal teams of FCDT 1 / FCDT 3, who cleared unexploded ordnance from several ships of the taskforce. Also they cross-decked ammunition from supply ships in South Georgia; as well as sweeping the channels into Stanley/Port William post conflict.

[Neptunus Rex]

Any ship can be a minesweeper...








Once!

[Milo Minderbinder]

just has to be noisy enough

[twinjetter]

Ref "Mil's" "second fleet"

As a non-mil type with a passing interest in Military history and logistics, the comment about a "second fleet" is very interesting - I've not heard anything of this before; but from an escalation point of view, the concept makes sense.

Would this have been a hotchpotch of recently decomissioned assets, rush-jobs on ships in-build/re-work and a retrenchment of extant vessels from around the world? Could we really have seen half-finished T42's with Tribals and additional Leanders etc making up a true second fleet supporting Bulwark and Illustrious?

On that note, were all RN naval assets worldwide immediately re-deployed homewards at the first sign of the troubles?

For those interested in reading about the Falklands, I recommend "Canberra, The Great White Whale Goes to War"....one of the first and still one of the best accounts of the conflict.