Want to know your time to command ( if you pass the course that is)?

Simply divide the people ahead of you in seniority by the expected upgrades per year.

Example : Join now equals 1600 divided by 49 (upgrades 2011, and that was a good year) = 30 years

:yuk::yuk::yuk:

Rounding down just makes it sound better:

1600/49 = 32.6 years

Boy-O-Boy 711!!

Your maths is awesome. Seriously.

You'll get a quicker command for sure, what with that mathematical acuity of yours.

:cool:

Hey Einstein
Are there going to be no retirements in your 32.6 years. Or resignations? Or sickness?
11 years is bad but 32 is plain wrong.:=

Hey Arfur, are you thick or something? No where did he mention any connection to retirements. This is simply about the training department's ability to train captains.

They have admitted in writing a total of 49 successful commands in 2011, which, as 711 points out, is a good year. Ok, it's not their absolute best year ever, but there is an upper limit on training capacity.

For example, doubling last year's total to 98 would bring it down to about 16 years, still not a quick command. However, 98 is not physically possible.

Unless of course more people volunteer for training......

They are still calling for more training volunteers. If they want you to do 30% more work, maybe they should pay 30% extra, rather than 10%.

They could switch to a normal command course and not the fiasco that happens now. How long does it take and how many sectors/checks to change seats? Odd at CX when it comes to command courses.

No need to be rude Broadband just 'cos it's anonymous.
No I don't think I'm thick but you have proved my point really. 16 is a long way from 32 isn't it??
Reducing the ludicrous length of the so called 'course' would be a brilliant idea so it obviously won't happen!

Very good point sloppy, having done 3 command courses with normal companies, I can tell you it generally takes 2 months from woah to go.
Of course, that's just your " average " jet command, you are not a qualified shuttle commander after a " meagre " 2 months ;)

What was the average number of upgrades/year within the last 10 years ? 20 years ? 30 years?

Why is it, that the massive expansion/early retirements/ sickness etc etc is always something that is ABOUT to happen, but never does??

And some of you call ME naive...

Retirements are already included in the above calculation of the current rate of upgrades.

Retirement of a captain may create a captain position for the next FO, as does an increase in the total number of aircraft, but vacancies do not create captains. It is an upgraded FO that creates a captain.

At the current rate of 49 upgrades per year, with no change in manning levels or training rates and assuming that 1600 SOs and FOs ahead of that last pilot on the list, it will take 32.6 years for the last pilot on the list to complete his upgrade.

Besides the minor variables affecting this estimate a little bit, what's wrong with this calculation of the current time to command?

Then there is the age 70

Between seniority numbers 700-799 there are 20 FOs. Odds are that these guys will not want / will not do / have failed a command. So assuming 20% of FOs never achieve command within CX despite having the required seniority, then that reduces the TTC for anyone behind them. In addition, you are assuming that none of the FOs ahead of you will be retiring pre command. There are a lot of 'late joiners' in CX and again this will reduce the TTC for the man who 'hangs in there'. On top of that there are probably a number of Freighter capts in the group and they will not be counted as 'doing a command' in the stats.

Baywatcher ..... stop being a tease!!

A few FACTS

90 Command Courses "planned" for 2012.

35 are on the 744....not sure how many are split between Airboos & the Tripler but I would imgone its heavily weighted towards the 777?

There are 16 guys/girls still on course who started in 2011.....assuming all pass that would mean 65 successful in 2011

By-Pass Pay currently commencing at 10yrs6mths

Command Courses currently commencing at 11yrs7mths

*One A330 FO and one 744 skipper quit last week (ie: gave 3mths notice, both leave CX in Mar '12)

What seems to be lost in some of these calculations is not so much the command fail rate (an area in which we are clearly an industry leading airline), but the necessity to double count courses when an unsuccessful trainee has his/her 2nd course 18 mths - 2 years later.

The pass rate fluctuates over time because of many factors, sometimes it's 50%, sometimes it's almost 100%, but let's take the 20% alluded to above, and assume not all of those people want, or are given, a 2nd go, so let's say on average over the years, 10% of first time applicants do a second course.

That means a new joiner today isn't waiting for 1600 command courses to transpire before he gets his, it actually means he is waiting for 1760 course.

Some of my numbers are only my best estimates, and any more exact details would be appreciated, but I'm sure you understand the concept.

by june commands will be 12 years and slowly increasing

That may become true by June 2012, for someone who joined in 2000, but as of Dec 31st, 2011, and using 2011's upgrade rate, a new joiner will have to wait 32.6 years for his upgrade to captain, as there are 1600 pilots ahead of him and only 49 per year are being upgraded.

The big variable over the next two years for command timing, is how many based FOs are going to come back for commands.

I would guess a significant number of FOs on bases are now nearing the 2 year mark from commands (top 200 seniority of FOs give or take),

Its a tough guess, if there wasnt this double tax issue hanging over their heads i would guess that most if not all would turn down commands and stay on the base especially as its obvious that command bases are a thing of the past for all but the most senior.

But double tax does change the game, how many will comeback to HK?? any thoughts. I know the AKL boys would be mad especially with their new tax ruling. and if i was able to get an FO slot down there i would be content to stay an FO but how many of the others will come back?

Silberfuchs, you must notice yourself the irony when announcing the planned numbers as facts? Also I respectfully disagree with your altered 2011 statistic. Passed commands are those in 2011 and not beyond. ( or you substract those who started their course in 2010, see what I mean?)

The important thing now is in my opinion :

How do we live with the fact of a very very long time to upgrade?

I think it is about time to talk about increasing F/O yearly stages AND the subsequental transition to a higher entry level on the command pay scale.

A quick look at payscales shows that we currently have 16 paygrades from joining the company (as an SO) prior to command. Given that we currently take 12/13 years to get to command, is a demand for more paygrades jumping the gun a little? Or was this whole discussion just an excuse to rattle the "gimme more pay or else" brigade?:D

What about the hundreds of very experienced F/O's ( many of them former CPTs) who joined as DFO?

Is your lack of empathy maybe related to the fact that you got your command already? After how many years?

No I have empathy. I have been in similar positions of stagnating pay. I just felt that we were taking a long slow winding road to raise this subject. Do I remember correctly that last year's paydeal addressed this issue somewhat? I guess the situation gets worse though as COS08 individuals will not get bypass as an additional paygrade. My personal situation is immaterial.

Just think we should be realistic. I was so shocked reading 49 as well. And yet 2011 was not the worst year,especially considering how tough the coming years might become(economic downturn etc etc).

But guess we are all looking at the wrong part of the equation. We should think of the future. It is now more clear than ever that unfortunately our management don't have any ambition for expansion,they want to earn the big bucks as is and conservatively. All machines coming in the next 6-7 years are replacements and we don't hear of any new or any planned destinations.

So the sad part of this story is that there is no expansion thus no real need for any massive commands. Unfortunately the commands in the next 10 years probably will be determined only by retirements and I cross my fingers that age 67 doesn't pop up anytime in the next 10 years. So guess 30+ years to command is pretty realistic.

Damnn want to blame someone but can't. If this is the company's growth rate than this is the company's growth rate. Question is now, HOW IMPORTANT IS YOUR CAREER FOR YOU. Wanna swap money for career? Or sit on that seat for the bucks.

Truth just hurts man......Good Luck guys.

before the inclusion of freighter only oasis/asl/dragon air age 65 commands were at aprrox 81/2 to 9 years

So even with 65 (retirement) simple maths would add 10years.
But not that simple as there were many pilots amongst this group who were already over 55 and even over 60.

Not all pilots will go to 65
And not all will stay due double tax basing fiasco and the newer generation who think anyone in management is an idiot.

Currently commencing command course is heading to the 12 year point by june.
Another factor affecting this is the joining rate in the previous years ahead of you.
in the period 2000 -11/2001 (i.e. 9/11) the rate was high so from mid 2001 to the end of 2001 you should anticipate late 2013 or early 2014.
So heading to 13 years just with the joining rate impact add in 6-8 years increase purely for 65 and time to command should extend out to 15 -19 years.
As 2011 courses only produced 65 commands assuming the remaining 16 pass.
At most that can be increased up to 90.

Ciggie packet maths find out who is starting in particular month see how far behind you are take 30% off due base not suitable divide by 75 would give you an idea +/- by 8-12 months.
Lots of variables

turnandburn,

Repeat The FO's who got promoted in 2011 joined in 2000, and ended up being captains in their 12th year with the company. This is not the current rate, this is the rate for those in their 12th year with the company, as they benefited from earlier expansion and younger retirement ages of those ahead of them.

Repeat: The new joiner in 2011, at assuming a rate of 49 new captains per year and 1600 pilots head of him, will have to wait 32.6 years.

Repeat: The calendar year in which a command course begins has no effect on the number of promotions in a calendar year. The 16 you say began their training in 2011 will count in 2012, just as those who began in 2010 but finished in 2011 counted as new captains in 2011, not in 2010. Beginning a course is irrelevant: Finishing the course and being promoted is what creates a new captain, and in 2011 there were 49.

Repeat: While there are variables (training rates, retirement rates, etc.) and other factors (FO's on bases staying on bases, failures, expansion/reduction etc.) the point is that the current rate as of 2011, which is known after all the variables and factors are included for that whole year, is 49/year, and with 1600 pilots ahead of a new joiner, and that works out to 32.6 years from joining to promotion to captain. Even if the rate unrealistically doubles and is sustained forever at 98/year and nothing else changes, that would mean 16.3 years for a new joiner. But the current time to command for a new joiner is 32.6 years.

So, for those who joined in 2000, it is around 11-12 years, for those who joined in 2011, it is around 32 years, and for everyone in between, it varies between 11 and 32 years depending on how soon they joined after those in 2000.

Repeat: While there are variables (training rates, retirement rates, etc.) and other factors (FO's on bases staying on bases, failures, expansion/reduction etc.) the point is that the current rate as of 2011, which is known after all the variables and factors are included for that whole year, is 49/year, and with 1600 pilots ahead of a new joiner, and that works out to 32.6 years from joining to promotion to captain. Even if the rate unrealistically doubles and is sustained forever at 98/year and nothing else changes, that would mean 16.3 years for a new joiner. But the current time to command for a new joiner is 32.6 years.

Repeat: No it isn't. You acknowledge the 'variables' but do not include them in your calculation. It is not so much important that 49 captains were generated in 2011, what is important is ...what was the seniority number of the first captain and then (looking at the same list) what was the senioriy number of the last captain promoted in 2011. The difference between these two numbers is the rate of consumption of seniority numbers ahead of any one individual. This is the number you should be looking at. I confess that unless you are a seniority geek this number is much harder to obtain.

So as of Dec 31st, 2011, and despite 49 promotions in 2011, you're saying there were more than 49 promotions in 2011, because of their seniority numbers, right?

The variables are included in 1600/49, because those 49 are the end result in 2011.

Repeat: 32.6 is the current time to command for a new joiner as of right now, until the next promotion or the next variable or factor changes, all of which can change the rate either way.

Repeat: 32.6 is not the current rate for someone who joined in 2001-2010, or who will join in 2012 and beyond.

:rolleyes::ugh:

Number 49 capt as of 31 Dec 11 ..... on 1 Jan 11 he looked at the seniority list and saw who was last promoted ..... call him 'Number 1'. Number 1 was more that 49 places ahead of Number 49. So Number 49 being in possesion of a crystal ball from RH said ... "bugger me, no promotion in 2011 then" .... but he was wrong, why?

Agree only 49 completed commands in 2011

I was more interested in estimating when current F/O s will commence commands in the next 5 years beyond that, variations really become to large.
personally more interested what i time i would start.
5 years and beyond is speculation at best.

However the trend does not look good.
maybe plot it against the price of gold

Gotcha to bang your head! But yes, there are more than 49 seniority numbers between 2011's first and last new captains, and I thought we figured out that will vary too.

Yes, 32.6 assumes every FO does his course and gets promoted. Wasn't that implied in the variables and factors thing? What if 10 more planes go to Air China this year and 10 more to Air Hong Kong next year and 10 more to Dragonair the year after that, and the price of fuel quintuples and air travel falls by 75%, how does that affect the rate?

OK, so let's assume 25% of FO's refuse/fail/quit the course: 24.5 years

Or how about 50%: 16.3 years.

Amended Repeat: In general, with plenty of unknowns and no way to predict the future, and lots of variables and factors that come and go that change the rate in both directions at random times, the time will vary but generally increase from approximately 11 to 32 years depending how soon after 2000 that someone joined, with the worst case being the most recent joiners...in general. :ok:

....Emirates: 5 years to command. (and regardless of the actual number....it's years less than at CX).

Ohhh, let's go to Emirates then, it sounds like an awesome airline:hmm:

Let me have a go:

How many places are there between the first command in 2011 and the 49th? Let's say there are 100, that means the company had to screen, offer, assess, train etc in order to produce 49 commands. Let's assume 49 commands out of every 100 is the natural rate for this company.

If the target is 98 commands a year, we can then assume the front 200 FOs on the list (excluding those who have been at the top of the list for a long time and are likely to stay there for whatever reason, with due respect) will get a shot. From this simplistic scenario no 1601 will be in that batch of 200 in the 8th year. But over this 8 year period, how many of the 102 who remain an FO after their first attempt/assessment will come back for their second attempt?

Let X be the average number of FOs between the first new command to the last in any year.
Let C be the average number of new commanders each year over the next 20 years.
Let N be the number of FOs who make a second attempt when the time comes and let's assume that to be 2 years after their first attempt.
(let's assume all FOs succeed on their second attempt)
Let T be the year since joining the seniority list when a person would begin the command process ie assessment, accepting or turning down a course and beginning the actual course.

T = (1600 / X) + [(1600/X - 2) * N]/C

An example: 200 seniority numbers produces 98 new commanders, the company targets 98 new commanders a year for the next 20 years. All first time failures will have a second attempt and passes.

T = (1600/200) + [(1600/200 - 2) * 102]/98

= 9 yrs

Obviously, this number is not consistent with the reality. The reasons are in the assumptions: 200 and 98 are likely to be higher than average. If we use 49 commanders out of 80 and target 80 commanders a year, both not difficult to imagine, it would give T = 20 yrs 2 mths

Any improvement on estimates for X, N and C welcome!

Yet another way of looking at it: Everyone joins an airline at the age of 20 and progresses through to becoming a capt but then retires at age 65. The airline has a fixed ratio of capt to total pilots .... this ratio in CX as of the last seniority list is 998/2509 (not including those not yet allocated a seniority number). Thus as everyone progresses through their career with no airline expansion taking place and a steady rate of recruitment and retirement everyone will be made a capt after 24.1 years of service. They will then remain a capt for 15.9 years.

This scenario is pessimistic in a number of its assumptions (averge join age is prob higher, leaving age is definately lower, expansion may be occuring in fits and starts, the crew ratio driven by economic needs may well fall etc ...) However, it still comes out with a better number that the 'boundary' defined by the OP.

The above model may well provide a 'better boundary', but reasonable prediction needs to take place if the aim is to forcast how long I must remain an FO. If you throw your hands up in the air and say "there are way to many unknowns" and still come out with silly figures you might as well not take part in the predictive exercise in the first place.

All great guessing, but...

As it stands now many senior FOs are stayng on bases. This will not happen as much in the future.

My prediction is that the 50% uptake being suggested will drop and most if not all FOs of the future will put their hand up for command. Historically the failure rate on initial courses varied as high as 30%. However the failure rate on second courses was much lower maybe 5%.

So you need to adjust the rate accordingly.

If you join today, 1500 slots before command. 80 commands for 5 years, then slow down, 40-50 commands for 5 more years then bigger retirements and 60 per year after that. Add in 20% loss rate and you get 480 no.s / years 1-5, then 240 in years 6-10, and 72 every year after that. So join today = 20 years time to command

Big what if no expansion ? I don't see much in the next ten years. So 20 years may be CONSERVATIVE !

FG

My 2c.

fG

Regarding widespread hopes of a possibility to jump the line:

In Europe there are only 10(!) guys or so below the 900 mark...

The variables are included in 1600/49, because those 49 are the end result in 2011.

No, all the variables are not included. For example some of those 1600 will leave to go to other jobs or retire for health or other reasons, some will fail the upgrade or don't want it.

We just said that.

First of all, you all should shut up and wait for Numero Crunchero to come to the rescue.

Secondly, most of you sound like the types who get all bent out of shape when someone doesn't say, "Clear right" when he's taxiing eastbound on H approaching H7 for a left turn!

All your bickering about 16 vs 32 years is so irrelevant! By that time, CX will be a Chinese airline. If you think the Cat A/B/C/D crap is laughable now, just wait until upgrades are solely offered based on subjective evaluations. By the time your 16-32 year upgrade comes along, seniority will be completely irrelevant.

Thread over!:yuk:

Oval, I will not comment on your style and debating skills, as they are obvious.

But let me explain to you just this:

This is a discussion about a best-case scenario, not a worst-case scenario.

Of course there might be even more bad news to come, there could be another SARS, a major oil crisis, hard landing of China followed by political instability,maybe even a war in Iran or in Korea, nobody knows (except you, of course)

Thread reopened.

What exactly was Oval's contribution to a "forum" there .....

.... Oh yes ..... NOTHING

Sorry to open old wounds regarding ASL, but I know of several DEC on that scheme. Whilst having considerable previous Command time and being DEC, they were, nonetheless, subjected to the ruthless 6 month course. CX, essentially, gave them the upgrade course. Equally, I know of several F/Os, hired under that scheme, who were subjected to a six month square bashing & some, failed. My question being, why is CX quite so ruthless ? The attrition rate appears high & complicates the 'Time to Command' debate. There is something terribly wrong with the Selection procedure if lots of people, subsequently fail the course, whatever the course might be. In house, Right to Left should be very straighforward when dealing with a known entity, a Company FO with established track record. Cripes, I am glad that I failed all four attempts at Selection. I would clearly have failed the course. A rare, GOOD selection decision. Last attempt was DEC, ASL but after a few mates got seriously harmed in local pubs, I was glad to get the one line reject letter.

That's the best post I have seen for a long time Landflap. They are questions that are rarely discussed here but commonly discussed on the flight deck.

The Cav

Last attempt was DEC, ASL but after a few mates got seriously harmed in local pubs, I was glad to get the one line reject letter.

One of them "slashed" his own "arm" did he not???

crwjerk
that was a DEFO who didn't make it through training.

Anyways, I think time to command will be less then 32 years, more like 16-20 years. I don't think 49 commands a year is representative for the next 10 years with all the outstanding aircraft orders. I believe it will be more like 75-100 commands per year for the coming years. Also taking into consideration that most likely the 3rd runway will be approved and CX will try to get as many of the available slots. Someone went through the trouble to build an age 65 retirement list and posted it on the AOA forum a year or 2 ago. As I recall correctly from 2020 on more than 50 pilots/year hit age 65 and from 2030 on over 100/year.

"I believe it will be more like 75-100 commands per year for the coming years."


Really....:rolleyes:

b.

What exactly was Oval's contribution to a "forum" there .....

.... Oh yes ..... NOTHING

As I was not intending to contribute to the forum, my post served its purpose and was recognized as such.

Your post, 744drv, is a waste of space.

I believe it will be more like 75-100 commands per year for the coming years.

I believe the highest we have ever achieved in the past is 80. I don't see how we can exceed or sustain that in the future without some changes being made.

I don't see how we can exceed or sustain that in the future without some changes being made.

Agreed. As it stands, 100 MIGHT be achievable in any 1 year (only barely), but it's totally unsustainable over the long term.

Agreed also.

Perhaps if there is another SARS-like lull in the proceedings, then we could utilise all the spare capacity to train like the blazes.

Maybe 150 for that year, but clearly unsustainable (too few trainers for too many flying hours, for starters).

No, because when there is a "lull", the company cries poor and stops training as well.

This was a list I developed about two years ago. I believe in 2011 we had more than 5 retirements. This represents everyone at CX leaving at 65 and is not updated. What is interesting is that this shows that we have about 24xx pilots two years ago.....not much diff today.


2011-5
2012-8
2013-11
2014-12
2015-20
2016-27
2017-20
2018-24
2019-44
2020-58
2021-53
2022-51
2023-58
2024-57
2025-58
2026-47
2027-70
2028-62
2029-73
2030-76
2031-81
2032-101
2033-129
2035-137
2036-132
2037-148
2038-125
2039-110
2040-104
2041-95
2042-75
2043-77
2044-77
2045-57
2046-46
2047-42
2048-28
2049-23
2050-8
2051-19
2052-6
2053-2
2054-3
2055-1

Not to be negative but, with aircraft orders there will be aircraft retirements.

We will be letting older 777s and 747-400 s go I would guess. This will be driven by demand. No demand more old a/c will leave.

FG

Oh and it was not a defo in the slasher's arms it was an SO.

He was a nice guy going through some tough family crap and combined with the stress here at CX it was too much for him.

FG

Actually it was a DEFO who was demoted to SO.

2031-81
2032-101
2033-129
2035-137
2036-132
2037-148
2038-125
2039-110
2040-104
2041-95

Interesting "bubble" in numbers in 2031 onwards from age 65'ers, cos thats about when all the current COS 99'ers will be retiring too:D.....but I'm sure they thought about that:eek:

asianeagle...

You seems to have a beef with guys who stayed on Cos99. I'm guessing you are not, and can further only assume that you are either too young or too stupid (or both) to have any real perspective on life. Many guys stayed on Cos99 for 1 or more of the following 3 reasons:

1. Who wants to be doing this crap at 60 or 65, when we could be enjoying our retirement with what's left of our joints at 55?
2. The company's initial 'offer' to change (if you could really call it that) was pathetic, and whether or not they improve the enticement is secondary to the obvious fact that the initial offer did not do enough to make the prospect worth it.
3. Bypass pay. Yes, the company tries to get out of it and not all the people who should be getting are, but guys are getting it and it does make a difference.

If you are bitter because you were forced onto Cos08, I can sympathize, but when did that become the fault of anyone who had the choice and decided to stay on 99? If you joined on 08, well tough luck, but the matter doesn't involve you so shut it. Or, if you had a choice and changed anyway, perhaps you are bitter because you now realize you don't like the choice you made.

In any event good luck at 65... :ok:

gosh all that vitriol from 4 lines. I thought he was talking about the company having thought about the big retirement bulge! I guess you have a greater insight. please be a manager at CX.

Great name, maybe its because u always on the transmit button!
If u sat back and actually listened and processed the above info, you may have realized it works to your advantage!

You may have used this info (like many others) 2yrs ago by reading between the lines.

IE Staying on Cos99 and STILL having the option of working beyond 55 and having BPP! Cake & Eat it! NR was laughing at the younger pilots that signed over.. Million dollar morons! (Well not that we have Millions these days anymore)

As there is just no way in HELL the company can have that bubble of 100+ RA65 and another 80+ RA55 guys leaving. IE 180+ leaving for 10years in a row. ie 1800 in ten (assuming you all 30-40 olds had the brains to see this info in this light)

We need more facts as in 10 years from now we are going have to stick together big time and make those retirement numbers work for our advantage and neg better contracts.

But with the SAD state of the AOA it seems the Co are way ahead of us out the gates and have already started C scale, when we should be reaching for a B+ (closer to A scale)

Maybe we need to get rid of JF first though! & get employ some more "brain power" to guide us sheep!

Can someone with some IT sense please set up an Anonymous CX pilots forum! We need a place to clear up all this baggage (like seeing a "shrink") then stick with flying Jets for a living!

Cheers, and for F>>K sake stay on Cos99 and fight the good fight for improved conditions everyone. Stop suggesting some porno idea to management just because it suits you!

and C Scalers that come here with experience I hope you have a plan!

Fcom,Crewsunite et al,

take a deep breath and relax. The decision to switch or not to switch to Cos 08 depended on many individual factors. Don't call somebody stupid because he or she did decide to switch, that isn't very respectful. For me, well above 40, I thought I rather accept (maybe) less money (= no bypass pay), but do have the security of RA 65 in return.

Will Cos99-pilots be able to continue beyond 55? Maybe, maybe not. I think your statements give away a hint of nervousness already, that is precisely what I didn't want to experience.But I can assure you I wish anybody on Cos 99 the best of luck, no hard feelings from my side, please stay as long as you can/want.

My guess is the company will those beyond 55 and willing to stay make to pay something ( reduced housing,benefits,pay, whatever), just not to loose face. Or you maybe lucky and just at the right time there will be a scarcity of qualified crew, who knows..

The voice of reason :cool:

Sorry Guys if I let fly with alot of emotion. Doing so once in a while helps me get back to focusing on other things. I just hate doing it here on a public forum. and it would be too embarrassing doing so on the AOA forum. So where else do I go to let off steam..

But my comment was made to those in 30-40 margin!

(assuming all you 30-40 olds had the brains to see this info in this light)

As you are 40+ Cos08 has better security esp if u have a family and no time left to mess around with the risks etc..

What I'm really saying is that Real Facts and statistics etc go along way to help predict a small part of the future. It took someone like Batmann (Thanks a million BTW!!!) to spend hours to produce something which the AoA should have had in spreadsheet before they even began neg on RA65. Tells you something about their preparation!

6P's = Prior Prep Prevents Piss Poor Perf

They did not do it & thus they did not do enough to educate and lead us!
We're still struggling with 25 housing, which in itself is a big saving for the co & now they trying their luck for more, forget change the 1 to a 2 (15-25yrs = done) + FTL and C scale are starting to haunt us. Get a grip everyone. We should be upping a preparation.

Also you suggest continuing past RA55 on reduced terms for Cos09! Are u crazy even suggesting such things you just feeding management with ideas!
We need to educate guys well in advance to do the contrary. I will accept continuing past RA55 on increased terms a bit like the A scalers could have done 3 yrs ago. But some of them were so self centered and impatient to play that game and ruined it for most of those that were gain. (2008 crisis hit and Pilots were totally unprepared) They were powerless then without unity and a plan! Like we are today and will be tomorrow, because we a million dollar morons with no ability for lateral strategies that are practical. Every time we start a clean page with management we offer them something.

Don't be sheep guys.. The heart of the airline in the new decade will be the current 30-40yrs old whom need to be empowered by good leadership which can do due diligence with the 6P's and thus provide a strong platform for us to neg and aviate this company to new high's.

Sorry to say I'm not nervous as I'm a long way into creating a plan B if the above pans out to become a mess.. Sad but true! If the AOA carries on the way it does I don't even think I'll make it to RA55.

It drives us all crazy, I know. As there are many in the company (some 1st class guys in the fleet offices / training & AOA that dedicate massive time to ensuring this company runs on rails. But there are still sooo many missed opportunities... Why? Bad leadership higher up in the Co and the union maybe!

HKA will hopefully add some stimulus to get things going with more integrity here?

BTW - No matter how much bar talk, prune post one does, it will do jack to change things.. We need GREAT leaders to make it all happen!

While we wait "wishfully" for that. For those that have not started, start by leading yourself to having MAX security in life apart from being a just being CX Pilot! and not PH's way either! (Aka crews news)

Back to these figures of "RA bulge" from 2020-40 with peak in the 30's is an hint for a huge opportunity for us to come. Who is going to capitalize 1st? Us in FOP or the bean counters. Well so far they have set the precedence with C scale esp now with LEP >250 hrs intake what's to stop them offering DEFO on Local terms and we seriously lack the synergy to pool our idea's to counter that. Thus are losing another round in the ring. None of us can fight this alone, and with the current arrangement in the union. Until then we'll keep seeing the horrible side of human nature greed and every man for himself!

The AOA forum is dead and this forum just hangs out our dirty laundry!
We need to re-invent yourselves and play catch up fast! Lets start by having a new FORUM! This is the new internet age and most layovers have free internet!

We need to change this C scale bull and get housing and DESO/FO back and have some well balanced / level headed cockpit crews flying for this premium Airline! At make it what it once was! No problem with Cadet's on C scale but stop at 20-30% of hires! If it continues this way, it's a time bomb!

Sorry if I offended some but for all the bitching you'll have to agree with some of my points. Alot of us including me go through parts of our career here with blinkers on..!!

Last comment = PLEASE CAN SOMEONE START A SECURE FORUM!
(Anything is better than this)
We've got alot to talk about..the silence is deafening.

The manager accepts the status quo; the leader challenges it.
The manager has his eye on the bottom line; the leader has his eye on the horizon.
Leaders must encourage their organizations to dance to forms of music yet to be heard.
Good leaders make people feel that they're at the very heart of things, not at the periphery.

PK, your horrendous yet unique grammar gives you away with each sentence! But a new secure forum won't help because there is always some jackass ready to copy/paste, forward and sell you out.

P.S. How's the writing skills course coming along? :ok:

You won't ever have to read it again!!!

Serious Thread Creep

The fact remains that an SO joining today is looking at 3 or 4 times the historic wait to go from back seat to left seat.

That is a lot of potential systemic abuse.

Happy thoughts.............

PK, your horrendous yet unique grammar gives you away with each sentence!

RS, your cloak isn't much better.

Cloak still working. Still trying to think of an RS to make a joke about!

OK! I gave, so now I get! :confused: Call me RS from now on! :rolleyes:

asianeagle...

You seems to have a beef with guys who stayed on Cos99. I'm guessing you are not, and can further only assume that you are either too young or too stupid (or both) to have any real perspective on life. Many guys stayed on Cos99 for 1 or more of the following 3 reasons:

1. Who wants to be doing this crap at 60 or 65, when we could be enjoying our retirement with what's left of our joints at 55?
2. The company's initial 'offer' to change (if you could really call it that) was pathetic, and whether or not they improve the enticement is secondary to the obvious fact that the initial offer did not do enough to make the prospect worth it.
3. Bypass pay. Yes, the company tries to get out of it and not all the people who should be getting are, but guys are getting it and it does make a difference.

If you are bitter because you were forced onto Cos08, I can sympathize, but when did that become the fault of anyone who had the choice and decided to stay on 99? If you joined on 08, well tough luck, but the matter doesn't involve you so shut it. Or, if you had a choice and changed anyway, perhaps you are bitter because you now realize you don't like the choice you made.

In any event good luck at 65...


Fnob....

How you came to those conclusions about me is beyond me....dude, you are way too uptight, maybe go commando for a few days, it helps :(

For what it's worth, I am Cos 99, and remained so for the very reasons the other guys pointed out. I am niether too young or too stupid and its my perspective of life that made it clear this would be the case. I am going to have my cake and eat it. A lot is going to happen in the next 15 years :ok:

You may insert your humble apology any time :p

I stayed CoS99 and will have my cake and eat it, too! I'm sure that by the time I reach age 55 I will have received my bypass pay and age 55 will have been determined to be discriminatory.

Those of you reasonably younger than 55 who signed CoS08 are just more conservative than those who are older and didn't. Some of us chose to take the risk that RA55 will be abolished by the time we reach it; others chose not to do so. To each his own (cake).

Same here, stayed on Cos99. I WILL retire by 55 or before. All you have to do is decide what kind of life you will be happy living, and there is an associated number which will give it to you. It's all about choices, my friends...

box

So are you expecting the AOA to do anything for you in the future if you are approaching 55 and want to stay longer but stayed on COS99?

Do you recall that survey the AOA released that said at age 30 only 20% want to go to 65, at age 40 it's 50% and at age 50 it's 90% Was wondering if you had a plan to stop aging?

The AOA doesn't do sh!t for anyone except negotiate away good things in exchange for bad. I don't expect the AOA to do anything about age 55 retirement. I'm SURE the government will do something about it. You know, political correctness is all the rage these days.

COS 99 guys dream on.

This is China, do you really think Swire will still be a major shareholder in CX by then, rather than just a "management company". Are you really SURE the government will come to your aid.

Electricjetjock has a good point. It has been said before but I will say it again. Have a realistic Plan B. Because things have been a certain way before doesn't mean it will continue that way in the future. Swire have played a delaying game with Cathay since the handover, but a new bunch will be in charge up north this year and they will want their piece of the pie. Will that mean CX changing ownership? Who knows. But it is possible and should be planned for. I know it is easy to say, but have 6mths salary saved up or that amount in liquid assets. You might just need it if god forbid Plan A doesn't work and you have to activate Plan B.

Agree about Chinese etc..

Would like to remind my point is from 2025-40.
There is going to be a double wam! As 100-150 are going to be retiring per year & all of whom will be the life blood of co in term of experience.
(RA65 + RA55 on Cos99)

That's 5% per year for 15yrs. 10-15% of Cpt's per year for 10-15yrs.

Impossible to replace us if the stick together and don't sign some porno deal and ignore this great opportunity. We got time to plan for it and many cannot even see it coming.

Though with us sheep they can lead us into any "camp" and achieve the impossible!

So hence my plan B as we are our own worst enemies.

Unless my memory fails me, the COS99 -> COS08 was a choice. Those that stayed on 08 made the choice, the Government has already come to the party WRT discrimination, they won't be giving you a second chance. You decided to keep your 55 retirement age, there is no discrimination.
Now if the company starts running out of pilots due to those retiring at 55, you can absolutely bet that you will be given another chance to extend your retirement age to 65+, but do you think it will be on your current terms? Absolutely it will be C scale but more likely by that time it will be D scale. There will be no cake and crumbs in this one.
We all made a choice that we will live with, there is no discrimination in you choosing to retire at 55.
Just my crystal ball.

Supply and demand will dictate what happens in the future, which nobody can accurately predict right now.

It could just as easily swing the other way in 10 years, with 10 times less pilots available at that time due this decade's degradation of conditions.

CoS08 was not a choice for many. It was a case of sign or have your employment terminated (based crew).

Based upon quick glance, there are 120 +/- or so aircraft at present, with 32 +/- set to retire and another 97 +/- on order through 2019 (not including any VLA that could be ordered). Thus, there are +/- 65 new aircraft coming on-line in the next, say with delays, decade plus. Assuming these figures are more or less correct, I cannot see how CX can sustain growth with the number of yearly upgrades being discussed here? What is missing :confused:

What is missing

A proper training dept?

box

Well, sorry guys, but reading the today's newsletter I thought this thread deserves another chance :}