The long term future of GA in Oz

[DancingDog]

Wondering if anyone can let me know what the long term future of GA is in Oz. Would the carbon tax and price of fuel affect it? I found this graph on dick smith flyer which made me think of this.

http://www.dicksmithflyer.com.au/hours_flown_2008.gif


:eek:

If it is on a downward spiral, can anyone please suggest why. Thanks

[345789]

Darwin/ Kunners/ Broome/ Weipa/ Horn Island/ Cairns (Nrth Aus) etc. in my opinion is rather immune to the national GA trending as you show. Mainly supported by the Government through their support of the Indigenous (teachers, tradesmen, counselors, politicians etc.)

However, Just pointing out the obvious as to why I could agree with the chart for all other regions in Australia that don't have a contribution to the Indigenous; cost of maintenance is exponentially higher than 15 years ago, Insurance for a GA operator for a high performance s/e upwards of $7-8k PA per aircraft (C210), landing fees/ parking fees and en-route charges, lease of land for an outfit i.e. Darwin International Ap charge roughly 55K per lot of land in the GA arena. Although, the only thing in favor for the GA operator is low wages it can pay the pilots.

Just for those not in the know, a typical Overhaul for an IO-520 (C210, bonanza etc.) is in the region of $35-40k plus any accessories (mags, alt, starter etc.).

But in support of Para 1. Darwin seems to be as stable as ever, Hardys' are growing at their consistent rate as shown over the last 20 years, all other operators seem to be just happy doing the said quota for the week.

And Yes, I do think eventually the Carbon Tax will have some effect on the GA industry. Might not be this year, or the next, but one day I believe we will be paying a premium to chew up Avgas/ JETA1.

[Jabawocky]

The stats do not include the recent uptake of RAAus and other flying that once was done in the GA fleet.

A lot more RPT service means business flying, such as Jaba and Mrs Jaba going to Sydney for a meeting and back in a day.

If that was Emerald, the cost of going Q link would make it worth flying myself, but to Sydney and back, not so.

Horses for courses

[Horatio Leafblower]

Of course, putting the bottom of the graph at 380,000 hours is a great way to over-dramatise the decline. I'm sure that wasn't Dick's intention, of course. :rolleyes:

From 580k to 380k is a decline of 200,000 hours - that's a lot, I grant you, but it's a decline of less than 35% over 20 years.

Lies, damn lies, statistics... and graphs.

[mattyj]

Better question would be: what is the long term future of GA airframes in Australia?

[LeadSled]

----that's a lot, I grant you, but it's a decline of less than 35% over 20 years.

And compared with the increase in population, and the size of the Australian economy, the decline of GA as a percentage of the GDP is very dramatic.

One of the results, that really annoys me, is the number of pilots, some with what I regard as very doubtful backgrounds, coming in on 457 visa.

That Australia no longer produces enough pilots from the domestic population really rankles!!!!

Tootle pip!!

[DancingDog]

I knew not to totally beleive the graph. GAs obviously down anyway, but do you reckon it's going keep going down forever, or bounce back after a while? With the cost of everything going up (thanks Julia) it seems predictable that this part of the industry is going to struggle, any thoughts?

[LeadSled]

And compared with the increase in population, and the size of the Australian economy, the decline of GA as a percentage of the GDP is very dramatic.

If the economy has doubled (and it's more than that, and there has been a big population increase in the last 20 years) and GA hours had not changed, that's a relative decline of 50% ---- Compared to where GA ought to be, the decline is probably about 85%.

This is the only non-outsourceable (more or less) industry sector that has suffered such a decline.

Tootle pip!!

[DC3Qld]

Does anyone know what this graph is actually representing? I was trying to find the stats on the Dept of Infrastructure and Transport website and can't find it anywhere. What I did find was GA hours reported as fairly stable around the 2 million hour mark for the last 10 years.

Someone using data selectively to prove a point?

[Aussie Bob]

Getting an AOC IN 1990 took aound 3 months, a 50 page ops manual and not that many bucks

Getting an AOC today takes 1 - 2 years, costs a motza and requires an ops manual as thick as a phone book, a business plan and so much bull that the average applicant gives up.

So goes the way of GA, slowly dying, slowly leglslated out of business by the nanny state. You will tell your kids about it, very few even care.

[Fieldmouse]

From the current BTRE site.

Total hours flown by Australian VH registered aircraft in the General Aviation and Regional Airline sectors were 2.0 million in 2009, a decrease of 2.9 per cent compared with the previous year. Activity in the General Aviation sector fell in 2009, with a decrease in flying hours of 2.7 per cent to 1.8 million hours. Regional Airlines recorded a decline of 4.9 per cent in flying hours, continuing a recent trend. Consolidation of aircraft operators, larger aircraft and effects of the global financial crises contributed to the decline in hours. Only two flying categories showed an increase in activity — Private (4.9 per cent) and Training (2.4 per cent).
Training and Charter flying continued to make up the two largest activity categories in the General Aviation sector, representing 27.5 per cent and 26.0 per cent respectively of all General Aviation flying hours during 2009. Private and Business flying together represented 21.5 per cent of total General Aviation activity.
Decreases in flying hours were recorded in Test and Ferry (-24.8 per cent), Charter ( 9.4 per cent), Agriculture (-6.3 per cent), Aerial Work (-2.8 per cent), and Business flying ( 2.1 per cent).
The number of aircraft covered by the survey grew 1.5 percent in 2009 to 12 229. The number of fixed wing, single engine aircraft increased by 1.0 per cent to 8 301, or 67.9 per cent of all registered aircraft in the General Aviation and Regional Airline sectors. Fixed wing, multi-engine aircraft increased by 0.7 per cent to 1 885 (15.4 per cent of the total). The number of helicopters increased by 5.2 per cent to 1 703 (13.9 per cent of the total), with the number of single engine helicopters increasing by 3.9 per cent to 1 530 and the number of multi-engine helicopters increased by 17.7 per cent to 173.
In 2009, 1 171 amateur built aircraft accounted for 9.6 per cent of all VH registered aircraft in this survey. This represents a 3.4 per cent increase over the number of VH registered, amateur built aircraft in 2008 (1 133 aircraft).

Not so bad as that dramatic and likely wrong graph would have you think.

[Tankengine]

You need to define "GA" as well.:rolleyes:

There are far more bizjets now than in the 70s and 80s, Baron charters may now be Citation/Lear flights.

I used to do two FIFO jobs in the mid eighties, one in a Cessna 310 and one in a Navajo - most FIFO flights now are turboprop or jets!:ok:

[Charlie Foxtrot India]

One aspect of GA that declined rapidly a few years ago was the overseas pilots coming for flying holidays.

This was because of the difficulty in getting documents verified for an ASIC when the applicant is overseas, but worse was moving the issue of a Certificate of Validation or Special Pilot Licence from the regional CASA offices, where it took around 24 hours, to Canberra where it can take several months and still not get done.

My last flying tourist, with an FAA and JAA PPL gave up after 9 months of trying to go through the process and getting nowhere; they took her money though. So, there is no point in marketing aviation tourism any more :(

[metalman2]

There is definatly a decline but there is also a few more options around, RAAus ,HGFA and with the recreational PPL putting a few more airport garden ornaments back in the air the figures might not be so dire.
Something that really needs to be pushed here (Australia) is allowing CPL cost to be deffered through HECS, the cost is out of hand for a young person to fund without living like a pauper, peeps doing med or law degrees in fact just about every bit of learning out there can be deffered .Just making it more financially possible would be a massive boost the industry ,

[DC3Qld]

I think we have enough people with their commercial ticket in the industry without making it a lifestyle choice for those leaving school and thinking it would be cool to be a pilot. The figures shown below in Fieldmouse's post actually indicate that training hours are increasing. Perhaps taxpayer money would be better spent in the industry assisting GA operators to make it a bit easier to run a business instead of bogging them down with paperwork.

Of course that would require some common sense.

[metalman2]

just a suggestion, and as a small business owner (non-aviation) I can imagine my paperwork probably times ten for a GA operator, my point was that you can defer payment on most Uni courses but if you choose to be a pilot then someone better have deep pockets, as for people heading down the flying trail on a whim I was sitting in an aeroclub a while back and was looking at some old logbooks left there, heaps of TIF's and even a heap getting to solo and then giving it away, I asked another FI about it ,he reckons it's all to common, people have a go do a few lessons and then realize it's not for them, the difference if the costs could be deferred is that the people who really do want to pursue an aviation career can do so with a bit of help. Yes,,,common sense in government ,,,wouldn't that be nice ,,,can't see it catching on though!
other than that, maybe grab a friend (cost sharer) and go flying ,,you'll be doing yourself and GA a favour

[Fieldmouse]

Airplanes are getting faster and ATC is getting more efficient so it doesn't take as long to get where you are going?
Anyone?............

[DC3Qld]

OK, so I have spent some time trying to find this graph outside of the website quoted below and I cannot find it.
All indicators show that activity in GA is fairly steady, other than GA hours expresses as a percentage of population I can't see any data to support a real decline in hours.
In answer to the original question by DD no I don't think the carbon tax or fuel prices are going to have much of an impact. Costs always go up anyway.

After all don't we all love to fly?

[Jabawocky]

And the stats do not include RAAus etc etc.

That graph is straight out of the AL Gore how to spin a lie into belief handbook :E

[Tankengine]

"Since 1988, gliding hours flown per annum have more than tripled."

They were steadily in decline from the 80s to 2004 and have then magically grown over the next years, dropped to 50% in one year and up 15% again while numbers of Aircraft and Pilots is fairly stable.:confused:

I would suggest the method of collecting data has changed [in fact I know it has:E]

Of course the average age of glider pilots is rising so a greater percentage are retired and flying more!:E

Ultralight/RAA hours on the increase for sure.:ok:

[metalman2]

aeroplanes getting faster????
you doing something sneaky to the forty year old 172's and pa28's ,cause I can't get them to go any better

and how do you quote a posting in your reply???

[Aussie Bob]

and how do you quote a posting in your reply???

Select and copy the quote then paste it into the middle of the html generated by clicking on the quote button. On my Ipad screen it is the third from the right just above the reply box

[baswell]

So, there is no point in marketing aviation tourism any more
Yes there is: RA-Aus! So long as the customers are happy to fly LSAs, all you need to do is do the requisite 5 hours, give them a check flight and do the human factors exam. A weekend's work and they are on their way.

[Charlie Foxtrot India]

These were folks who would have the wife and kids and enough stuff to bring a Cherokee up to MTOW so not really LSA material..but your post does highlight one of the major inbalances...that RA Aus folks don't need all the security checks and certificates of validation etc and it gives them a huge advantage over GA. :(

[Jabawocky]

Still need a bloody ASIC card at most of the regional places they would want to go to. :mad:

[Charlie Foxtrot India]

True, if you wanted to go more than a fuel tank away from base you'd usually need to go to a security controlled airport.

[baswell]

Yeah. I know a lot of RA pilots go to these major international RPT hubs (like Port Augusta and Birdsville) without ASIC.

I am not that brave, but I say: good on 'em for sticking it to the man. This is one rule you CAN break without compromising safety.

Bit hard to have an aviation business and telling your customer that, though. Someone might object...

[superdimona]

I wish we could disband CASA and give 50% of their former budget to the FAA. Let them take over with their rules.

[aroa]

I second that wish , super D.!

The $$s saved and the benefits to GA would be enormous, but wait,..no.. no...DONT.!

The "authority", as with bureaucrazies are so entrenched and skilled at feathering their own nests, and BSing pollies that I'm afraid there is no hope of a more practical, efficient and common sense regime....EVER.

Read some of the Senate hearings and delight in the fabulous examples of bureaucratic crapspeak. :D

Welcome to the land of Nannistan...! We know whats good for you and we will do all in our powers to save you from yourself. :sad:

[neville_nobody]

There was that guy operating out of Melbourne who used to organise self flown charters around the country in a big group of 172's. He had a bunch of new planes and plenty of people from all over the world would come to Australia to do these tours. Everyone was a winner, especially the outback towns.

The government then decided that they were a threat to national security and wouldn't give them a exemption on the ASIC's. Anyway business ended up being shut down thanks to bureaucracy. :ugh:

[Jabawocky]

Do you mean GOANA Air Tours that was run by Mal Shipton? If so that was ex YRED. There may have been another.

I just did a quick search for anything and I found this on Dick's website, pretty much explains it.

Government policy puts GOANA out of business (http://www.dicksmithflyer.com.au/Goana_out_of_business.php)

Mal had one of the few viable and profitable GA businesses until the ASIC. :ugh: