Pilot shortage, is it true this time?

[Apache702]

Demand for airline pilots set to soar - USATODAY.com (http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/story/2011/06/Demand-for-airline-pilots-set-to-soar/48661596/1)

i think this time they are right, starting from next year for the next 10-20 years.

Maybe we can hope for the good old days salaries we use to make, or maybe not, looking forward to see what happens.

[Non Zero]

Have a look on the aircraft order just form the 3 Major in the Gulf region ...

gulfnews : Of landings and take-offs (http://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/of-landings-and-take-offs-1.842306)

[Aussie]

Pilot shortage..... yeah right...

Last time there was a so called pilot shortage... they lowered mins and took fresh CPL out of school.... now most airlines have cadets, or access to schools with them and will draw on the wannabes to put bums on seats... old T&Cs,... thing of the past guys...:{

[atpcliff]

In the last 2.5 yrs, pay for 747-400 capt in China went from 16K-22K/month.
Pay for small Airbus capt went from 14K-16+K. Even ERJ-145 capts make 12K net in china now.

Some US regional airlines new hire classes are half full, with over 1/2 no-shows at interviews.

American Eagle (a regional) just announced lowering minimums to 500 Total Time/50 multiengine airplane. With that experience level, Eagle will PAY for a new-hires jet transition course at a vendor, and then you will start in Eagle training when the outside course is complete-1st time US airlines have done this since the '60s.

The Eagle guy I talked to said they would have been OUT of applicants in Oct, and were getting only 1 application/day. He said they have called everyone who was previously turned down, everyone in their database, even if their info was years old, and were calling guys at other regionals to come over. To try and improve their situation, they just announced that everyone at Eagle who joins by this Fall will get an automatic seat in an American Airlines new-hire class down the road.

Eagle is the biggest US regional, and hence needs the most pilots...

cliff
HNL
PS-Heard from a different guy that KAL will not make their new-hire quota this year...

PPS-The Eagle told me that, last year, in ALL of the US, the FAA only issued 500 commercial licenses. The numbers of student, private, commercial, instrument, and ATP licensees has been declining steadily the last 12 years here.

And, over 1/2 of last year's USAF pilots were sent directly to UAVs, with no manned aircraft training whatsoever.

[Mat Finish]

PPS-The Eagle told me that, last year, in ALL of the US, the FAA only issued 500 commercial licenses.

So in a country with 50 States there was only an average of 10 new CPL's per State?

That may be true but in sunshine States like Hawaii, Florida and California etc they must have more than 10 new graduate CPL's surely?

Mat Finish
never a shiny moment..

[Skylight Dome]

There is no such thing as a pilot shortage. Get that out of your minds (unless you also believe in fairies and Santa).
There may be a shortage of EXPERIENCED pilots, but that's not the point. Flight academies allover the world are spitting out thousands of newbies every year. Maybe a few more or less, depending on the economic situation. That's all.
Whatever shortage there may be, it will be covered by the end of the year. And if not, the minimum requirements for newjoiners will be adjusted a little bit, while at the same time all the current pilots will have to fly a bit more.
The "good old days" are over and gone forever.

[billabongbill]

With the upsurge of LCCs and start ups, there is certainly a shortage of experienced pilots. Flight schools and academies will be churning out heaps of newbies ever eager to fly for peanuts. The big crunch will come when the LCC business model implodes; this is just a matter of time........just like the sub prime crisis, the LCC business model is unsustainable whatever what fat hopes the various vested parties have.

[Wizofoz]

just like the sub prime crisis, the LCC business model is unsustainable whatever what fat hopes the various vested parties have.

Southwest Airlines traces its roots to the March 15, 1967 incorporation of Air Southwest Co. by Rollin King and Herb Kelleher to provide service within the state of Texas

Southwest is the largest airline in the United States, based on domestic passengers carried, as of June 30, 2010 (2010 -06-30)[update]

Yeah, you just keep on waiting for the LCC model to stop working.....

[PosClimb]

500 new commercial licenses in the whole of the US in one year?

I'd love to see an official FAA stat for that, but I would believe a number more like 5000...

Pilot shortage: Would be great, but I'll only believe it when wages and conditions skyrocket, companies like Eaglejet go out of business, and airlines are sponsoring their own cadet programs en masse in the US and elsewhere.

Till then, it's all just self-serving industry propaganda from people whose "food money" and stock portfolios are somehow connected to getting some young kid to sign up for flying lessons...

This extends from the counter clerk at your local flying school to the senior executives at Boeing Flight Training.

I'll tell you: that Flight Training industry is an industry unto itself... Everything is about marketing and sales.

Also remember that the US is on the cusp off entering another recession and oil is still very, very pricey.

If there is a little hiring surge, it'll be a short-lived one.

[Rule3]

There has been a shortage of PILOTS and an oversupply of SYSTEMS MANAGERS for quite some time.:}