Bahrain, Saudi Arabia & Iran

[ORAC]

Torygraph: All eyes on Bahrain as Gulf tremors frighten oil markets (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/oilprices/8341667/All-eyes-on-Bahrain-as-Gulf-tremors-frighten-oil-markets.html#)

Oil analysts are paying very close attention to fast-moving events in Bahrain, fearing that clashes between the island’s Sunni elite and an aggrieved Shi’ite majority could embroil the two Gulf giants of Iran and Saudi Arabia.

"While events in Libya are undoubtedly of prime importance, they are a red herring for the oil market," said Helima Croft from Barclays Capital. "We believe the unrest in Bahrain may be of far greater importance to the strategic balance in the Middle East and to the oil market." The risk group Exclusive Analysis said there is a "moderate risk of an extremely violent transition" in Bahrain, the linchpin of stability in the Gulf and host to the US 5th Fleet. "There is a significant probability that the present order is completely overthrown and replaced by a new order aligned with Iran," it said.

Marchers from Bahrain’s Shi’ite community, 70pc of the Island’s 800,000 population, poured into Manama’s Lulu square on Tuesday in another day of civic protest after the royal family promised to call off the bloody crackdown. King Hamad is under intense pressure from the US to refrain from further bloodshed, but this softly-softly policy contains its own risks. While the centrist Shia party al-Wefaq wants peaceful reform, the more radical Haq movement is less easy to control.

Exiled Haq leader Hassan Meshaima, wanted for alleged sedition, has announced plans to return to Bahrain next week. It is unclear whether he has a green light from authorities hoping to defuse the crisis, or whether he is throwing down the gauntlet in a move with echoes of Ayatollah Khomeini’s return to Iran thirty years ago. "If he is detained on arrival, this is likely to galvanise the opposition and increase the risk of a violent widespread uprising, " said Exclusive Analysis, which sees a one third chance that the 200-year old monarchy will be overthrown.

Gary Sick, a former White House adviser on the Mid-East, said it is "too late for dialogue" after the killing of 10 people, deemed a massacre by Shi’ite clerics. He said the Saudis are "terrified" of contagion and are determined the line drawn in Bahrain before protests spread through the Gulf. "There does not seem to be any happy ending to this story," he said.

Iran is clearly hoping to bring Bahrain into its orbit. An aide to supreme leader Ali Khamenei called three years ago for Bahrain to be absorbed as Iran’s 14th province. Manama has repeatedly accused Tehran of inciting revolt.

However, the immediate concern is that Bahrain’s troubles will either cause Saudi Arabia to step in directly, or serve as model for revolt in the kingdom’s Eastern Province nearby. This region also has a restless Shi’ite majority, and holds a fifth of the world’s oil reserves. There have been low-level clashes been Saudi security and Shi’ite activists in the province over the years, though Riyadh has made efforts to address grievances. A small protest this week in Awwamiya was handled with kid gloves. Three Shi’ite prisoners were released as a goodwill gesture. However, Saudi dissidents are calling for a much bigger 'Day of Wrath’ on March 13 to press for political freedoms.

Exclusive Analysis said there is a 25pc chance that the Saudi Kingdom will disintegrate, perhaps into three states. "We don’t think it is likely, but it will have a very big impact if it does happen," said Firas Abi Ali, the group’s Mid-East strategist. "The threat to Saudi Arabia is if they have both a Shi’ite uprising and a Hejazi uprising at the same time on the other side of the country. The Saudi royal family depends on Sunni clerics for its own legitimacy. It cannot easily meet the demands of Shi’ite protesters, and is likely to oppose any move by Bahrain to do a deal in order to avoid setting a precedent," he said........

[larssnowpharter]

ORAC:

I suspect your sources are wrong and have not factored in:


The fact that over 10% of Saudis are unemployed.
Nearly 45% of Saudis under 25 of, working age, are unemployed.
The Kingdom is ruled by a bunch of old farts who have lost touch with reality; that is, when they are not in their expensive hospital beds in the USA.
The Kingdom is rife with corruption.
The Iranian meddling with the Shias.
That 50% of the population is disenfranchised - totally.
The huge divesion between the haves and have nots.
The fact that the Kingdom is, essentially, an oligarchal monarchy.
That GDP per capita has dropped year by year for, what, the last 15 years.

I used to think that it might last 10 years before the system imploded. I have revised my estimates downward.

It will happen unless the current regime changes things. The only question is when.

[Wiley]

I've recommended this book before, but in 1994, the author pretty well predicted what we're seeing today. More worringly, he included Pakistan (along with all the small Gulf States) as a state that will collapse into anarchy in his predictions. I'd highly recommend this book to anyone living or looking like being asked to fight in the area.

The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War
(ISBN: 0375503544 )
Robert D. Kaplan
Editorial Reviews:

Synopsis:
When The Coming Anarchy was published in The Atlantic Monthly in 1994, it was hailed as among the most important and influential articulations of the future of our planet, along with Francis Fukuyama's The End of History and Samuel P. Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations. More...


Review:
Robert Kaplan warns of a bifurcated world divided between societies like ours, producing goods and services that the rest of the world wants, and those mired in various forms of chaos. This is a familiar theme for previous Kaplan readers (Balkan Ghosts, The Ends of More...


Review: "[I]nformed by a rock-solid, unwavering realism and an utter absence of sentimentality....The book...conveys a tragic sense in recognizing humankind's tendency toward a kind of slipshod, gooey, utopian and ultimately dangerous optimism."

Richard Bernstein, New York Times, 02/23/2000

[Saintsman]

It's all going to get terribly messy.

We need to keep well clear, though I see Cameron's recent visit to Egypt included representatives from defence companies.

They won't want a peaceful resolution.

[50+Ray]

ORAC may I just make a minor comment on your opening post?
The recently published census for Bahrain gave a total population of approx 1.1 million. Of this figure more than 50% are expats, the majority being from South Asia doing all the manual work.
The reporting of last week's events here has been rightly criticized for gross innaccuracy. BBC, Sky, CNN, & Jazeera made it seem a dangerous place. I can truthfully say that nothing in the past two weeks has prevented my going about my life in the normal way, with the exception of a certain amount of traffic chaos (not unheard of in this part of the world).
The local press works fairly well within it's limitaions. Pro government activities will fill the first three pages, and anti government the next couple. Numbers given for those attending demos should be treated with some scepticism.
The last time I drove past Pearl roundabout - which never could be described as a central Manama square - the atmosphere was more carnival than riot.
i am not qualified to comment on wider political aspects, but there has been much more anti-social activity in the past - tyre burning in the streets etc.
Ray

[SmilingKnifed]

There used to be a regular unclass lecture to the studes at Chicksands by an American analyst named Tim Carr, who basically surmised that if (more likely when IMHO) Saudi collapsed, the west would have no options but to deploy forces to secure the oil heads.

Am I the only one fearing the current situation developing into something cataclysmic for our way of life?

[andyy]

SK, I wonder if that scenario was wargamed as part of SDSR? A bit towards the extreme end of the spectrum, perhaps, but not impossible & therefore still a scenario worth considering.

[SmilingKnifed]

I'd like to think so Andy, but given the current lack of foresight at ministerial level, I doubt it.

Total War: 2006 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_War:_2006)

Just remembered reading this a few years back and a lot of it seems strangely prescient. Imagine a unified middle-east (a caliphate if you will) aligned against the west.

[pr00ne]

Or, how about a free Middle East, no longer governed by corrupt dictators or medieval monarchic dynasties supported by the West, but free independent democracies who bow to the will of the people?

Why would they be aligned against the West?

[SmilingKnifed]

And I'm sure regional players like um, Iran, would sit by and let that fluffy liberal utopia unfold Pr00ne. Particularly in majority shia countries. :rolleyes:

[pr00ne]

SmilingKnifed,

What makes you think that this process won't spread to include the likes of Iran and Saudi Arabia?

[SmilingKnifed]

I'd be very happy to see that (in Iran at least) but the leadership of both are watching and learning.

BBC News - Saudi king offers benefits as he returns from treatment (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12550326)

That said, even a moderate Saudi government would be unable to maintain the required oil output to feed our addiction, particularly during a transition of power.

I agree with you in hoping for the best. Sadly, I fear the worst.

[dalek]

History has shown that Religion and politics do not mix.
Fourteen hundred years into Christianity came the Reformation coupled with the Spanish Inquisition / Counter Reformation. What follow was one of the biggest bloodbaths in history.
Islam has now come to the same crossroads. For Catholic / Protestant, read Shia / Sunni.
Unfortunately with modern technology and weapons, we are all going to be invited to this party. Like it or not.

Within the next few years the world will welcome the balanced stability of the USA v Soviet Union.

And what do our Conservative government do? At the time of maximum threat and danger they reduce our Armed forces to the weakest level in nearly a century.
Rant over.

[soddim]

Whatever you may think about the Saudi regime at least they understand the Shia threat and they have not ducked their responsibility to fund their forces adequately to deal with it.

Their only major problems are quality and training of personnel but at least they still have the quantity required unlike us.

[pr00ne]

soddim,


Not very reassuring when you take into account how oppressive a regime it is and how much funding and support for SO many extremist groups in the region come from the place. Bin Laden is after all a Saudi...

[SmilingKnifed]

And his post-Afghanistan operations with MAK/AQ were brought about through outrage at western soldiers setting foot in the land of the two mosques during GW1. What would be the response if we had to deploy there again to secure the oilfields?

[LH2]

The last time I drove past Pearl roundabout - which never could be described as a central Manama square - the atmosphere was more carnival than riot.
i am not qualified to comment on wider political aspects, but there has been much more anti-social activity in the past - tyre burning in the streets etc.
Ray

Indeed. I remember from when I lived across the causeway that demonstrations have always been alive and well in Manama--kind of reminded me of France, except in Manama they're a lot more civilised. Our employer used to get all shirty if they found out about us joining in :E

[pr00ne]

SmilingKnifed,

They are not OUR oilfields so if we did deploy there to 'secure' them folk would have a perfect right to get a bit shirty. This is after all the main reason we have bombs on the streets in London, we invaded other peoples countries and it's not very popular or nice. So best we stop doing it then.

[SmilingKnifed]

If you have a solution as to how, without western civilisation as we know it, collapsing, Pr00ne, then I'm all ears.

[soddim]

pr00ne, re post 13, you're quite right. However, we are now militarily too weak to do anything effective in the region and the reality of life is that we need their oil. On that basis we must be pleased that they maintain military forces to defend themselves with - we don't.

[pr00ne]

A solution?

Well, how about this for starters. They have virtually no revenue apart from oil. They have very little domestic need for oil.They have lots of oil. We have very little oil. We need lots of oil. We could always, you know, buy it off them...

Only solution I can see in this capitalist world we live in.

I suppose we could always invest in non mineral based energy, but that would only annoy the City and the oil interests.

[MTOW]

how about a free Middle East, no longer governed by corrupt dictators or medieval monarchic dynasties supported by the West, but free independent democracies who bow to the will of the people?Pr00ne, I'm assuming the nearest you've ever been to the Middle East is a pro-Palestinian rally on the liberal arts campus at your local polytechnic.

A democratically-elected government in many if not most Middle Eastern countries would result in a 14th century style theoracy not unlike what we've seen in Iran for the last thirty years.

If you haven't lived there, you can have no idea of the incredible one-eyed pride Arabs have in their glorious history, their vastly superior military prowess, [I'm not kidding on that point - don't you know they've soundly defeated the Israelis in every military encounter they've had with them since (and before) 1948, only to have every hard-won victory stolen from them by the Great Satan America on the floor of the United Nations? Ask any Arab and he'll tell you, in great detail, how this is irrefutably true], their religion, and their deep-seated distrust, even hatred, of all things non-Arab and non-Muslim. I'm not talking about the educated Arabs you may have met during your pro-Hamas rally at the poly, but the other 95% - the ones who'll give the mullahs the overwhelming majority in any Western-style democratic election.

Oh, and once you've voted - democratically, Western style - you've voted. Once and once only. After that, any election involves no women allowed to vote, no candidates not approved by the local mullah allowed to stand, [as already happens in Iran], no non-Muslims and no-anyone else who doesn't toe the party line.

[Trim Stab]

The country with the most to worry about in these unfolding events is Israel.

Israel has succeeded in justifying its stance in many controversial wars since its creation because it proclaimed itself as the the only "democracy" in the region, thus illiciting unbridled support from the USA and to more considered extent from Europe.

If real democracy does fill the power vacuum in Egypt, then it is likely to be more anti-Israel than the Mubharak regime, which was propped up by expensive US support.

Tunisia, Libya and Iran are all important - but not crucial. Yemen, Morocco are incidental.

The real issue is what will happen in Saudi. Saudi is the most extreme dichotomy of all these states - a profoundly fundamentalist, oil-rich state whose dictatorial leaders have been bought off by the West for years.

If Saudi erupts, then Israel could feel so cornered that it is reduced to a nuclear response.

[parabellum]

The oil belongs to Saudi. The infrastructure, the exploration, development costs and the production and maintenance costs are met by the Western, (usually American) partner, those are the terms, always have been, always will. The owner of the oil takes 51% of the profit and the Western partner gets the balance after deductions, still enough to maintain their continued interest.

Or, how about a free Middle East, no longer governed by corrupt dictators or medieval monarchic dynasties supported by the West, but free independent democracies who bow to the will of the people?


Oh how I laughed!:rolleyes: I think you are probably what is generally known as a 'theory man' pr00ne.

[manccowboy]

Another way to look at it.....if Saudia falls no one will be able to afford to drive cars.

[dead_pan]

The West will have no stomach, let alone the military clout, to take control of Saudi's oil fields. Also, how would our forces cope with a Shia uprising in the area were we to take control ? Would we ape Gaddafi and gun them down? The world has changed and we are going to have to live with it.

[hval]

@ pr00ne

Or, how about a free Middle East, no longer governed by corrupt dictators or medieval monarchic dynasties supported by the West, but free independent democracies who bow to the will of the people?


Forgive me for saying this, but I believe you are either extremely naive in the world of politics or disingenuous. I agree totally about the corrupt governments/ rulers etc, but "free independant democracies"?

You appear to have forgotten the following: -

1/ Irans political interference with a desire to have influence and control of all in the Middle East, and all that that leads to

2/ Religious interference

3/ Tribal influence

4/ The oil and every nation in the worlds requirement for oil - and lots of it

5/ Peak production of oil has been reached, or is close to it. Less oil, but still a growing requirement for it.

6/ Chinas growing requirements, and desire to control and own all minerals they can get their hands on, not only from a need in their own county, but also to have materials to produce goods to sell to the rest of the world.

7/ As stated elsewhere, you do not appear to understand oil exploration and extraction, licencing etc.

Finally, how many democracies do you know that aren't corrupt? I can't think of one. I had a discussion of how corrupt our politicians have been, and still are, recently with a bunch of Tanzanians and Ugandans when out in the field recently. None of them could believe that we hadn't had a revolution to get rid of them, and were still allowing them to be corrupt.


Hval

[Heathrow Harry]

"Peak production of oil has been reached, or is close to it"

not so - Greenpeace proganda

the main oil companies have declared reserves stretching out 42 years - and that number has been the same every year since the mid '90's

it just isn't worth spending money looking for oil you are only going to produce in year 43 onwards

gas production in the US Lower 48 is RISING after 150 years of production

[Goprdon]

Only slightly off topic.
Middle east problems relate to us because we need middle east oil to power our industries and lifestyle.
We should be aiming to solve our power problems with power generated by nuclear fusion.
Success with power generated by nuclear fusion would mean that we would not need oil.
Spend money on nuclear fusion research , not on a railway to Birmingham.
As an added bonus we could then afford proper funding for our armed forces.

[Capetonian]

Or, how about a free Middle East, no longer governed by corrupt dictators or medieval monarchic dynasties supported by the West, but free independent democracies who bow to the will of the people?

Oh what a lovely theory. Straight out of the Guardian Supplement or the Trotskyite Students' Union at some third rate university.

Can you name any such system, past or present, in the world?

[davejb]

Israel has succeeded in justifying its stance in many controversial wars since its creation because it proclaimed itself as the the only "democracy" in the region, thus illiciting unbridled support from the USA and to more considered extent from Europe.



Controversial, presumably, means they fired back when the arab states attacked them? Ok, 1967 they carried out pre-emptive airstrikes, but I don't think anyone seriously thinks the arabs were that hard done by.

I now teach - some of out science text books are a bit dated (don't blame me, you'd be amazed at how little cash I get to run my dept each year), apparently oil was due to run out 5 years ago....

I LOVED this comment:

We should be aiming to solve our power problems with power generated by nuclear fusion.


Err, except we have no idea of how to do it? Nuclear fusion is indeed the ultimate energy for free for ever issue, last time I checked it appeared we MIGHT have managed a fusion reaction for a tiny teensy fraction of a second.... there's also a small problem in that you need to do it at several million degrees K (or C - 273 degrees makes no difference at this scale) just like stars do it, and it's quite hard to build a container that can stand up to, say, 10 million celsius....

On the other hand, if we can make our solar cells more efficient then the Sun is quite literally beaming free energy at us - I've got solar panels on my roof, they help pre-heat my water, free energy. If we can improve our solar cell and battery efficiency we've got it hacked.

Dave

[Saltie]

don't you know they've (the Arabs) soundly defeated the Israelis in every military encounter they've had with them since (and before) 1948, only to have every hard-won victory stolen from them by the Great Satan America on the floor of the United Nations? Ask any Arab and he'll tell you, in great detail, how this is irrefutably true]We must know each other, or at least you speak to the very same Arabs that I do.

The Cairo Military Museum is a case in point. Whole halls devoted to the huge victories they scored against the Zionist Entity in 1973 (while everyone in Israel was home on holidays) - but not one solitary word about what happened to those victorious forces one week later when the "Zionists" came out to play.

[ORAC]

Washington Post: Amid the Mideast protests, where is Saudi Arabia? (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022406480.html)

Two months into the Arab revolution, one very fat lady has yet to sing. But the turn of Saudi Arabia - home to one-fifth of the world's oil reserves, and the United States' most important remaining Arab ally - may be coming soon.

Think there's no chance that this kingdom's restless youth - 60 percent of the population is under 18, and 28 percent of working-age youths are unemployed - will rise in revolt? King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz doesn't agree with you. On Wednesday, the ruler landed in Riyadh after a three-month absence abroad for medical treatment - and for an 87-year-old with a bad back, he looked like a man in a big hurry. Before his plane even touched down, Abdullah had ordered up $36 billion in new welfare grants for his people - about $2,000 for every Saudi. There were loans for young Saudis to buy homes, get married and start a business, and a 15 percent pay raise for government workers. Next are a prisoner release and a cabinet reshuffle.

Meanwhile, waiting among the 50 or so white-robed men on the tarmac to meet Abdullah was the man who worries him most: King Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa of the neighboring island nation of Bahrain. A week ago the Khalifa regime tried to put down the first popular uprising in an Arab emirate by force - the solution sought by Saudi Arabia. It failed, thanks in part to countervailing pressure from the United States, which keeps a fleet in Bahrain's port. Thousands of protesters are camped in the center of Bahrain's capital, Manama. Their demands, from the Saudi perspective, are frightening: at the least, a constitutional monarchy that will empower the country's repressed Shiite majority - and maybe also the deposal of the al Khalifa family, which is Sunni. Watching closely are the 2 million Shiites of Saudi Arabia's oil-rich eastern province, who are also a disadvantaged majority in their region and who are separated from Bahrain by a 16-mile causeway.

King Hamad probably has broken some bad news to King Abdullah: I no longer have the option of ending this by force. It won't work - and the Americans won't let me. That leaves the Saudi ruler with a couple of hard choices. He can order Saudi forces through the causeway to put down the Bahraini Shiites, in what would be an Arab version of the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. Or he can let the al-Khalifas bargain away their power, while hoping that the democratic infection doesn't spread. The invasion is a real possibility: Saudi troops helped put down a Shiite rebellion in Bahrain in the 1990s. Earlier this week, the Saudi Council of Ministers issued a Brezhnev-like declaration: "The kingdom will stand by the sisterly state of Bahrain with all its capabilities." A lot of experts in Washington are convinced that the Saudis won't hesitate to act if the Bahraini regime appears in jeopardy."

But invasion could bring Saudi Arabia directly into conflict with the Obama administration, which is backing the reform route in Bahrain. It could even cause a historic rift in the 65-year-old alliance. At the least, a $60 billion arms sales package just agreed to between Washington and Riyadh would be in danger. Abdullah has no love for Obama; he spurned the U.S. president's request for help in the Arab-Israeli peace process and fumed at Obama's turn against Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak. According to the New York Times, the last of their two phone calls during the Egyptian crisis "ended in sharp disagreement."

Still, I'm betting that Abdullah would rather be a Gorbachev than a Brezhnev. Rather than invade, he's more likely to embrace the strategy of trying to get ahead of the Arab wave of change before it is too late. That's because Abdullah has started down this path before. After the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, in which 15 Saudis participated, the then-crown prince began to cautiously plan a liberalization of his economic and political system. One of his closest counselors was a 40-ish Georgetown graduate named Adel al Jubeir - who, since 2007, has been the Saudi ambassador to Washington. In a 2003 interview, Jubeir outlined to me an expansive political reform agenda: first, elections in professional organizations of journalists and doctors, as well as universities; then municipalities. Last would come an election to the quasi-parliamentary shura council, which Abdullah now appoints. "If we move deliberately and we do all the right steps, I don't see why we can't have a society with the rule of law and civil liberties and elections," Jubeir said.

The municipal elections were duly held in 2005; in 2009, when another vote was due, they were canceled. Abdullah's reforms, undertaken in large part because of pressure from the Bush administration, stalled. But Jubeir is still around - in fact, the king just extended his term in Washington. Is the fat lady finally ready to sing? We'll soon find out.

[NorthernKestrel]

Good analysis here on the RAeS site on Middle East unrest and implications for aviation & defence...

Shifting sands ? aviation and Middle East unrest | Aerospace Insight | The Royal Aeronautical Society (http://www.aerosocietychannel.com/aerospace-insight/2011/02/shifting-sands/)

Not just defence tho. - with a whole load of Airbus and Boeing's backlog tied up in Gulf airlines if things do spread even more then everyone is potentially up a certain creek without a certain nautical tool...

[maxred]

Very expert analysis there ORAC. Enjoyed reading it. I watch in wonder the BBC reporting on this unfolding situation, almost ' hurrah, jolly hockey-sticks', at the 'uprisings'. People power the cry.
Few are looking at the fundamental difficulties that will lie ahead, Israel and the peace process being at the heart, then the oil, then the West wonderment at being caught on the back foot. What will we do now. The answer in short is not a lot. Reported this morning of US sanctions back on Libya, the Leader must be reeling at this??
Loved the previous comment on when the revolution would start here to remove our corrupt lot. Not soon enough in my view.

[Goprdon]

A reply to davejb at post 31

I prefer to believe Professors Stephen Hawking and Brian Cox.

Try this website: //www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/sep/11/science-stephen-hawking-brian-cox

[larssnowpharter]

ORAC:

Washington Post: Amid the Mideast protests, where is Saudi Arabia?

Please refer to my post (No 2) in this thread.

[ORAC]

Torygraph: Saudi Arabia contagion triggers Gulf rout (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8358176/Saudi-Arabia-contagion-triggers-Gulf-rout.html)

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock index has tumbled 11pc in wild trading over the past two days, led by banks and insurers. Dubai’s bourse has hit a 7-year low.

The latest sell-off was triggered by the arrest of a Shi’ite cleric in the Kingdom’s Eastern Province after he called for democratic reforms and a constitutional monarchy. The province is home to Saudi Arabia’s aggrieved Shi’ite minority and also holds the country’s vast Ghawar oilfield, placing it at the epicentre of global crude supply.

“Unrest in this region can have fatal consequences for the world,” said JBC Energy. “The plunge on the Saudi stock exchange can be interpreted as a sign of waning trust.”

In Bahrain, the island nation’s Sunni elite holds sway over a Shi’ite majority that is denied key jobs and has a token political voice, making it a trial run for Saudi Arabia’s near-identical tensions in the Eastern Province.

Bahraini dissidents have so far been much bolder, prompting a bloody crackdown last month when at least seven people were shot by the military. The ruling family – under intense pressure from Washington to stop the killings – has since held out an olive branch to protesters and let the radical Haq leader Hassan Mushaima return from exile, yet the crisis is far from contained.

My Mushaima said on Wednesday that protesters have “the right to appeal for help from Iran” if Saudi military units interfere in the struggle. Tanks were seen crossing the 17-mile causeway from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain on Tuesday.

“These were supposed to be Bahrain’s tanks returning from Kuwait: that is not a credible story,” said Siras Abi Ali, a Gulf expert at the risk group Exclusive Analysis.......

[dead_pan]

Looking forward to the implementation of a NFZ over Saudi and Bahrain when it kicks off.

[ORAC]

Independent (Robert Fisk): Saudis mobilise thousands of troops to quell growing revolt (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudis-mobilise-thousands-of-troops-to-quell-growing-revolt-2232928.html)

Saudi Arabia was yesterday drafting up to 10,000 security personnel into its north-eastern Shia Muslim provinces, clogging the highways into Dammam and other cities with busloads of troops in fear of next week's "day of rage" by what is now called the "Hunayn Revolution".

Saudi Arabia's worst nightmare – the arrival of the new Arab awakening of rebellion and insurrection in the kingdom – is now casting its long shadow over the House of Saud. Provoked by the Shia majority uprising in the neighbouring Sunni-dominated island of Bahrain, where protesters are calling for the overthrow of the ruling al-Khalifa family, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is widely reported to have told the Bahraini authorities that if they do not crush their Shia revolt, his own forces will.

The opposition is expecting at least 20,000 Saudis to gather in Riyadh and in the Shia Muslim provinces of the north-east of the country in six days, to demand an end to corruption and, if necessary, the overthrow of the House of Saud. Saudi security forces have deployed troops and armed police across the Qatif area – where most of Saudi Arabia's Shia Muslims live – and yesterday would-be protesters circulated photographs of armoured vehicles and buses of the state-security police on a highway near the port city of Dammam.

Although desperate to avoid any outside news of the extent of the protests spreading, Saudi security officials have known for more than a month that the revolt of Shia Muslims in the tiny island of Bahrain was expected to spread to Saudi Arabia. Within the Saudi kingdom, thousands of emails and Facebook messages have encouraged Saudi Sunni Muslims to join the planned demonstrations across the "conservative" and highly corrupt kingdom. They suggest – and this idea is clearly co-ordinated – that during confrontations with armed police or the army next Friday, Saudi women should be placed among the front ranks of the protesters to dissuade the Saudi security forces from opening fire.............

[MTOW]

Ohh, and it would be among the safest bets to say that the Iranians are in there stirring that particular pot as much as possible.

[ORAC]

Grauniad: Saudi Arabian forces prepare to enter Bahrain after day of clashes (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/14/saudi-arabian-forces-bahrain-protests)

Crown Prince of Bahrain expected to invite Saudi support following anti-government demonstrations in capital

[ORAC]

Foreign & Commonwealth Office: Bahrain - Travel Summary: (http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/travel-and-living-abroad/travel-advice-by-country/middle-east-north-africa/bahrain)

We advise against all travel to Bahrain until further notice.

Following an increase in protests over recent days, confrontations between protestors and police on Sunday 13th March, reports of protestors establishing roadblocks, and reports that the Bahraini Government has invited fellow Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members to deploy forces to help them preserve law and order, we also advise British nationals currently in Bahrain to remain at home until further notice. The risk of a further outbreak of violence has increased.

If British nationals do travel within Bahrain, they should maintain a high level of security awareness, particularly in public places and on major highways, and avoid large crowds and demonstrations. The airport remains open and transiting through the airport is unaffected by this advice.

[ORAC]

BBC: Gulf states send force to Bahrain following protests (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12729786)

Troops from a number of Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have arrived in Bahrain in response to a request from the small Gulf kingdom, officials say.

Troops from a number of Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have arrived in Bahrain in response to a request from the small Gulf kingdom, officials say.

It comes a day after the worst violence since seven anti-government protesters were killed in clashes with security forces last month. Dozens of people were injured on Sunday as protesters pushed back police and barricaded roads.

Bahrain's opposition said the foreign troops amounted to an occupation.

A Saudi official said about 1,000 Saudi Arabian troops arrived in Bahrain early on Monday.

The troops are part of a Gulf Cooperation Council deployment, a six-nation regional grouping which includes Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.....

[dead_pan]

Oh, so they are there for a spot of R&R, to be followed by baton charges and tear-gas volleys?

Gaddafi has reminded them how a strong man deals with protests...

[parabellum]

As long as you understand, Dead Pan, that the troubles in Bahrain should not be seen to be a natural follow on, or in any way similar to, troubles in other parts of the Middle East. As has already been explained, Iran claim Bahrain as their own and have been stirring up trouble there for years, the very last thing Saudi, or any of the Gulf states want is an Iranian presence on that side of the Gulf. By brining in the forces of the GCC, plus the existing presence in Bahrain of the American 5th Fleet, a timely message is being sent to Iran to butt out.

[Heathrow Harry]

where are we if Mr Dinner Jacket decides to follow Dave and declare a no fly zone to protect the rebels against a cruel government

[ORAC]

where are we if Mr Dinner Jacket decides to follow Dave and declare a no fly zone to protect the rebels against a cruel government In a target rich environment. :E:E

[hval]

Something I have eluded to previously is the influence of Iran and the intentions of Iran in Middle Eastern and global politics.
The following link ( Please Click Here (http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110307-bahrain-and-battle-between-iran-and-saudi-arabia) )provides an interesting and relevant insight. I would recommend a perusal.

Iran, militarily are better than all the other Middle eastern forces excepting Israel - and they know how to fight (my opinion). Iran have massive Shiite support throughout the Middle East. Read the report. It is well worth it.

[BandAide]

While I would concede Iran has proven quite adept at clubbing and torturing its own people, their military and command and control have never been tested against a force of stature.

Who knows how they will fight, or who will internally turn against the regime when the shooting starts?

Should they come up against a committed US force, and assuming nuclear weapons are not used, they would quickly find themselves made mincemeat of, I've no doubt of that.

[parabellum]

against a cruel government


Simply doesn't apply to Bahrain. If the Shi'ite population think they have it bad now, (and they don't), wait and see what life would be like under Iranian control!

If the tactics used in the Iran/Iraq war of the eighties are anything to go by Iran don't have a lot going for them, militarily.

[hval]

@ BandAide,

Should they come up against a committed US force, and assuming nuclear weapons are not used, they would quickly find themselves made mincemeat of, I've no doubt of that.

You have a point there. It is why I wrote "Middle eastern forces". Having said that, how would the US get back in to the middle East if it is under the control of Iran (either directly, or indirectly)? Now that may be a physical present, or a political presence.

If Iran do gain control of the Middle East, they then have us by the thingies - particularly now the UK have upset that nice Mr Qaddafi who used to provide the UK with much of it's oil. We really do not want to be dependant on Russia for our oil & gas, so that also gives problems; and yes I am aware that the UK have increased the amount of gas purchased fra Norway.

I was going to waffle on some more, but the article explains a lot of what I was going to write. I will write the following though..... Clausewitz & Sun Tzu both understood that "war" may be carried out by political means, and is generally preferable to "outright war" (particularly when you use a nations own populace against themselves). Ahmadinejad appears to have grasped this principle admirably.

[BandAide]

The oil's going to flow regardless of who controls it.

how would the US get back in to the middle East if it is under the control of Iran

The more immediate concern is that of the Middle East. How do they ensure continuing US interest in maintaining order there?

The Obama administration isn't interested in more commitments as Libya has shown, and Americans left and right are increasingly turning inward, finally recognizing the enormous problems in their own house need to be addressed.

The US doesn't depend on Middle East oil, but Europe does. Therefore, the Middle East is Europe's problem in the future, as Sarkozy and Cameron have recognized.

[Fubaar]

If the Middle East goes pear shaped for the US and they lose commercial access to oil, watch the US tree hugger resistance to developing the Alaskan oilfields be ignored poste haste.

After the first winter without oil, I suspect even the tree huggers' protests about endangering the habitat of the Alaskan three-eyed spotted seal will be somewhat muted.

I suppose the Iranians will still get some income from the Indians and the Chinese, but the big question will be: will it be enough income to keep their coffers filled to the level they'll require to maintain their cash flow at the level they'll require?

One thing you can guarantee: whichever way it goes, the *** Frogs will be in there making money at every turn.

[parabellum]

that nice Mr Qaddafi who used to provide the UK with much of it's oil


Er..............no he didn't/doesn't, Europe does take the lions share but not the UK.

[dead_pan]

Therefore, the Middle East is Europe's problem in the future, as Sarkozy and Cameron have recognized.

Shame the Germans haven't, though. They, like the Americans, seem pre-occupied with whats going on in their own back-yard i.e. Europe.

Whilst America may not be a major user of ME oil, they do have significant economic and strategic interests in the region. You can bet they will take an interest if the unrest spreads to the Shia populations in Saudi and Iraq.

Re Iran's involvement, Armoured Dinner Jacket is doing all he can to deflect attention from problems at home. No news on those two Iranian warships which transitted the Suez a few weeks back, just ahead of the Enterprise strike group?

[Willard Whyte]

More than 85% of Libyan oil exports go to Europe. The rest go to Asia, Australia and the US.

And rearranged in order of dependence: (barrels = barrels per day)

Ireland - 14,000 barrels (23% of all oil imports)
Italy - 376,000 barrels (22% of all oil imports)
Austria - 31,000 barrels (21% of all oil imports)
Switzerland - 17,000 barrels (19% of all oil imports)
France - 205,000 barrels (16% of all oil imports)
Greece - 63,000 barrels (15% of all oil imports)
Spain - 136,000 barrels (12% of all oil imports)
Portugal - 27,000 barrels (11% of all oil imports)
UK - 95,000 barrels (9% of all oil imports)
Germany - 144,000 barrels (8% of all oil imports)
China - 150,000 barrels (3% of all oil imports)
Netherlands - 31,000 barrels (2% of all oil imports)
Australia - 11,000 barrels (2% of all oil imports)
USA - 51,000 barrels (0.5% of all oil imports)

[The Old Fat One]

Taken in isolation the above figures don't mean a lot and don't really reflect any sort of dependence.

You need to factor in how much each country imports as a part of its overall consumption.

For example, consider the UK, 9 percent of not a lot, is ....not a lot.

I don't know the latest figures, but in 2005 half our oil was self produced.

As to Quaddifi supplying most of our oil...that's just nonsense.

[Airborne Aircrew]

but in 2005 half our oil was self produced

One wonders then, why it costs so much... :*

[Heathrow Harry]

It's a genuine world market dear boy.......

once you factor out transport and quality the price is the same everywhere

What Governments add on top is a local issue

[TBM-Legend]

all the displaced and unloved [by your Govt] UK military guys could form a modern version of the "Lafayette Escadrille" in Saudi Arabia on big salaries...

[Airborne Aircrew]

once you factor out transport and quality the price is the same everywhere

Poppycock... I live in the USA. According to you I should be paying about $9/gallon right now... Here in Detroit it's $3.45/gallon.

My point was more about how you're being raped by the government.

[ScufferEng]

Fiddlers Green, Warblers, Champagne Brunches all a distant memory.. I remember being "confined" to our apartments because of demonstrations out on the street, this was back in 06, guess it's always been simmering under the surface...:confused: