Middle East. All change again?

[STANDTO]

Big changes in Egypt. Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Iran all experiencing serious unrest. The world is undoubtedly in an ever changing state of flux.

Surely if the region now implodes on itself, as is possible, the world picture will change yet again. Where will this put oil output? Do we go, or do we suffer the unrest back home brought on by fuel shortages.

I've seen very little informed 'big picture' comment on the situation as yet. doubtless it is early days as yet, but if the situation in any of these regions is purely suppressed by state power, how different is that (in simplistic terms) to what was happening under Saddam in Iraq.

Its an interesting debate. The world could look very different in twelve months time.

[Biggus]

For the oil producing countries of the Middle East, and most in your list are not major oil producers, they have little choice but to export their oil to the rest of the world. It is virtually their only source of income. This basic fact will not alter no matter who is in power there....

[STANDTO]

The majors aren't in yet, but this is spreading pandemically. There was mention of Saudi in one news feed possibly being at risk.

[minigundiplomat]

There was mention of Saudi in one news feed possibly being at risk.


Hope springs eternal......

[Willard Whyte]

Careful what you wish for, you might just get it.

Can't see asmadasadinnerjacket sitting back and watching the chaos and not getting involved.

[parabellum]

Iran's most likely involvement will be in Bahrain, as Iran claims Bahrain as it's own and has spent years stirring up dissent among the Sh'ite section of the population. USA 5th Fleet no doubt keeping a close eye out for boat loads of 'martyrs' from the East side of the Gulf.

[GreenKnight121]

Tunisia and Egypt were the moderate middle class speaking out... radicals got short shrift from those doing the organizing and leading.

Libya is North Africa's largest oil producer, and also the biggest question mark... just exactly who is leading the revolt there is uncertain... as is whether they will win, and what form of government would take over.

[Siggie]

If the populations of a few more nations join in, it may give the politicians the excuse they need to get us out of there, without it being seen as 'Run away' and avoiding the ensuing loss of face.

[Boy_From_Brazil]

I share the same concerns as Willard W. I am sure that OBL and his cronies haven't just been standing on the sidelines watching events unfold. I would be very surprised if they weren't among the key agitators on the social websites.

A pretty horrifying thought!

BFB

[tramps]

Sounds bad, but look at this:uhoh::
Monday, 21 February 2011
WASHINGTON: The United Nations has predicted the global population will reach seven billion this year, and climb to nine billion by 2050, “with almost all of the growth occurring in poor countries, particularly Africa and South Asia”,

To feed all those mouths, “we will need to produce as much food in the next 40 years as we have in the last 8,000,” said Jason Clay of the World Wildlife Fund at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

“By 2050 we will not have a planet left that is recognisable” if current trends continue, Clay said.:\
So...we are all f*cked one way or another, just enjoy the flying whilst you can:E

[Phoney Tony]

When the Government were looking at the world during SDSR did they assume stability in the World; thus there will being no major conflicts within the next 10 years.
The potential for State resource grabs in North Africa and Middle East is high at the moment.
My point is that things change rapidly; is a 10 year planning horizon underpinned by an MBA approach to managing risk is flawed?
Also the FCO should reflect on the fact that their strong words are just that without a way of delivering coercion, deterrence or destruction. If you want influence you need credibility across the full range of effects.

[NURSE]

looks like SDSR 2 will need to be produced in 2012. The assumption that nothing major will happen for a decade giving us time to rearm has been the cornerstone of defence reviews going back to the 1930's and has always been proven wrong. "peace in our time" ????

[air pig]

We never learn the lessons of history and only repeat them time after time!