RBS's view of the EK future

[donpizmeov]

By 2020, RBS expects Emirates to add a further 25 new destinations with a heavier emphasis on south Asia and North America. This assumes that all 90 A380s will be in operation by this time, in addition to 70 A350s and 67 777s.
The report predicts that Emirates' total fleet will increase to 249 aircraft in 2020 from 155 in 2010. "This is notably more modest than one might expect, given the media discussion around Emirates' high-growth plans," says RBS, noting that this compares to a current 722-strong fleet at Lufthansa (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/lufthansa.html) Group and a 1,261-strong fleet at United Continental. "These figures are boosted by large portfolios of regional aircraft but the scale of the Emirates fleet, on our modelling, would be modest."
RBS expects Emirates to retire a "significant share" of its existing fleet over the coming 10 years. This is in line with earlier comments from Emirates chief executive Tim Clark (Flight International, 15-21 June 2010) that the carrier would begin a phase-out in February of around 68 of its older widebodies, including A330 (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/airbus%20a330.html)-200s, A340-300 (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/a340-300.html)/500s and 777-200s.


The above is cut and pasted from the flight global website. It suggests a total fleet growth of less than 100 frames from the 2010 fleet size by 2020. So real growth of approx 10 frames per year for the next 10yrs as an average.

This would tend to go against the "you will have a command in 4 to 5 years" comments we sometimes hear. I think this would suggest that the last 400 FOs on the list are already without a command by 2020 if we use 8 Captains per aeroplane.
I think it would be sensible to work your figures on 10yrs plus to command if you are about to join. If new orders are made and the fleet size plan is increased you get a nice surprise, if things stay the same you were prepared.


The Don

[halas]

Sorry Don, l don't respect any bank that is majority owned by the UK tax payer.
They couldn't see that the music was about to stop with the sub-prime mess, so what authority do they have over middle eastern airline futures?

I do recall TCK saying we were going to have 100 aircraft by 2010 back in 2003. We all thought that was pretty impressive - if they could do it.

halas

[donpizmeov]

Halas I agree RBS has a questionable past, and it was one of the largest debt holders of Dubai Inc. However the fleet size numbers quoted are based on ordered frames less retired frames. It also ties in with what TC has said numbers wise. So unless some big orders are placed soonish this is the future. It still has the airline growing by over 64% size wise in 10yrs, nearly one new airframe per month for 10 years. Not a bad feat.
I think EK is too large now to continue growing at 100% fleet size wise in a 4/5 year period. As this is what is needed for a new joiner to achieve a command in that time frame. That was much easier to do when the original fleet size was numbered in the 30s than when its numbered in the 150s.
So to join now thinking that a command will be happening prior to ten years would be relying on luck and hopes rather than the present facts.

the Don

[shresht]

Wikipedia says the 330s are to be phased out beginning Feb'11 (now).

Wonder if they took that into account.

[M-rat]

I'd trust RBS with more of my money than I would anyone in management!

Or for that matter anyone with connections to local gov't, especially, (ahem), real estate.

Over the past 2 years the number of unhappy FOs has increased dramatically. It's the most unpleasant aspect of my job when on the flight deck.

Usually I demur, identifying myself as someone who is largely content with his lot in life. On occasion, when the FO persists, I have only one retort: what part of www.pprune.org (http://www.pprune.org) didn't you understand?

I have moved up many seniority numbers in less than one year. Approximately 5% so far.

The evidence is there.

[Wizofoz]

I'd trust RBS with more of my money than I would anyone in management!



Yep, because, after all, the RBS continued to make profits throughout the worst of the GCC where as Emirates lost it's investors a fortune, was technically insolvent, and had to be Bailed out with tax-payers money.....


No...Wait......

As to fleet size, I certainly see constraints in:-

1) the capacity of DXB and
2) the ability to gain landing rights
3) the ability to train in sufficient numbers

So yes, it's possible the current rate of growth and therefore times to command will have to slow.

[wingflex]

don,

10 years seems to be your magic number eh!
let me tell you, that there are people who dont come in with the bare minimums that EK requires, and some even come in with time on type. and yes, they will bypass some of the guys in front of them, when they have served their 3 years.

a few recent upgrades on the 777 have been with guys under 4 years in EK! good luck to all applying.

[donpizmeov]

Wingflex,
The only way to bypass someone who is senior to you on the list, is for the more senior person to not have the upgrade criteria hours. And you are right, some guys are being held back as they don't have the 3000hrs on an EK type, or the 4000hs over 55t when their number comes up.
Do you really think a new joiner should plan on bypassing the 1200+ FOs already on the list? :ugh:
Upgrade at the moment is averaging 4 to 4.5yrs on the Boeing, 5 to 5.5 yrs on the Bus. A decade ago it was averaging 18mths to 3yrs, this was when we had 250 FOs on the list. The last Boeing presently on order will be delivered by year end 2013. A350 delivers start after this, how long after will depend on if it works out of the box or not I guess.
By all means join, but do so with a realistic idea of progression times.

The Don

[Wizofoz]

Don's right, wingflex- an FO joining now with zero hours 55t will have close to his 4000 by the time his number comes up- ASSUMING the FCI is still in place (which I'm tipping it won't).

[captainsmiffy]

Not holding my breath about the FCI being rescinded; been here over 3 years and have 2100 hours towards the 4000 so it isn't happening as fast as I would have liked either. Bear that one in mind should you get the bus.

What is so important, anyway, about the magic number of 4000 when you have 11500 total with 10 years in command previously?! Am the first to admit that I have loads to learn but these arbitrary figures are crazy! Oh well, back to the books...!!

[atiuta]

With those numbers, it will only be a question of time before DEC's are hired.

[Wizofoz]

smiffy,

The 4000hrs means nothing. The FCI was a totally unnecessary knee-jerk reaction- which is why I THINK it will quietly go away given time.

[Instant Hooligan]

Small Comfort for those that have been bypassed already.

[fatbus]

Don't see any change to any FCI's regarding upgrades, if any thing it will go up based on the large number of failures.
The guy that joins now does not have an upgrade in the current plan, that being said it will all depend on attrition. 2500 now 4000 to crew 250 A/C. Also it would seem the bus is the fleet to be on for the long term( long term in EK .......12 m ). 777 will start to decrease in fleet size 2012/13

[Flying Spag Monster]

The only thing certain about upgrades at Ek is that it is never certain. Don gave some numbers which prospective new joiners should not ignore. Fast track commands etc will always be an option as will other variations that we could not yet imagine. Please all come to EK, we need the days off, but picture your self in 3-4 years time lamenting that you have been by-passed or gazzumped by a DEC. You will have become just like the FOs today who complain of such things, knowing (or should have) that those options existed at the time they joined. EK has good FOs which lots of command time but their square peg doesn't fit the round hole, does yours?

[halas]

Hey Falcon,

I don't know what the present pass rate is, but if you cut the interview and psych BS and get down to just the training, what is it?

There never will be a cut and dry upgrade process that stacks up to any reasonable measure.

This mob are a very fluid, day to day operation. It may work for them, but it definitely works against those who work under such a system.

There is no certainty, or fixed goal posts.

Having said that, after nearly thirty years in this business, l can not recall anytime, in my career, when this was ever offered anyway!

Something l figured out back in the late 80's...."Never believe anything, until your pay packet reflects it"

halas

[IXNAT]

Heard from a B-TRE that the failure upgrade rate on the B was over 20% while the 'bus was under 10%. He didn't have exact figures.....go figure the higher rate. :confused:

[Will_Fly_4_food]

How many Captains in the company now? I guess 1200? for 150 aircraft and 1200-1300 First officers?

250 aircraft in 10 years would mean 2000 Captains
Average Captains from now until 2021 =1600

Retirements/resign/fired = 5% per annum = 80 captains need upgrading
10% fail or are not ready for Upgrade = 160 bypassed
10 new aircraft delivered each year = 80 extra captains each year.
Total of the above=320 Captains trained/bypassed/processed each year

If there are 1200 First Officers in the company now divided by 320 = 3 years 9 months until Captain upgrade?

Do these figure sound right? No one seems to include retirements and failed upgradeswhen trying to guess how long a pilot will stay an First officer, and in fact I believe the failure rate is probably higher than 10% anyways, which could make upgrade times faster.

So those who say 10 years to a command are way off the mark. My math aint so good but logically 4-5 years still seems right

[Oblaaspop]

The other thing that also needs to be considered is that we are currently woefully under-crewed, and it will get worse as the amount of ULR we do increases.

There should be at least an extra 2-300 pilots on the list than there are now.

Cathay has a smaller fleet than EK, and runs an almost identical operation (short/medium/long/ulr all wide body), and yet has around 2800 pilots.... Go figure!:hmm:

[Mysalami]

Some very interesting numbers there fly for food. Lets consider the candidate at your 3yrs 9mth point. What has happened to the 600 pilots that were denied or failed in the 3yrs 9mths before him, using your 160 pilots/yr figure? Wont the earlier ones have now made the hours by that time? Wont those that have failed now be up for their next chance? Or should it be a once you are bypassed or failed you have done your dash policy?

However you are right. If only every third FO meets the requirements for command, and all those other two thirds are never to again get the opportunity to be considered within seniority for command, that eligible one third of FOs will indeed get their commands in 3yrs 9mths. While the other two thirds miss out for good. So a 1 in 3 chance....What did dirty Harry say.."Do you feel lucky?"

[wingflex]

So 1300 FOs in EK at the moment, and how many upgrades happen in total every year? my sources tell me ard 200-240 upgrades a year

WF