So what happens to the RAF after 2015?

[Training Risky]

If we withdraw from the Stan and the ME totally by 2015 and cruising into downtown Tehran with a few battlegroups is not a viable option, what's left to do?

1. UK and FI QRA?

2. Small scale humanitarian aid flights?

After allowances have been cut to ribbons, CEA cut, pay freeze continues, manpower bill shrinks to c. 20 000 or lower...is there a job we can or should do outside the two above?

How low can we go? 10 000 personnel as part of a UK Defence Force by 2020?

(Basically, should I PVR next year....? (Considering I reach 38 on AFPS 75 in 2015!))

:\:uhoh:

[Biggus]

How do you know that you are not about to be made redundant?

[cazatou]

To put the current situation in context; in 1919 the RAF's 188 Operational Squadrons were reduced to 12 - of which only 2 were based in the UK.

In 1945 the RAF had more than 1 million Personnel and 55000 aircraft - but by 1948 that been reduced to 38 thousand Personnel and slightly more than 1000 aircraft at home and in overseas Commands.

In both cases the prime mover was the state of the economy - as it is today. The coffers are empty and the current conflicts do not impinge on the every day life of the British Public. The current concerns for THEM are how the cuts in Public Spending will affect THEM. Students protesting about their fees get more Publicity from their actions than the Armed forces get in a month of Sundays.

The vast majority of the British Public do not understand why the British Military are in Afghanistan and the Funeral Parades through Wooton Bassett no longer make News Bulletins as a matter of course. In the eyes of many of the Public those Parades have become a matter of routine and they are more interested in who is going to win "X Factor".

Nobody in HMG makes any effort to explain to the British Public in simple terms exactly why we are in Afghanistan. Until that is done the sacrifices of British Military will not fully register on the conscience of the British People. Only then will the British Military get the Funding and Resources to carry out their roles properly.

[NutLoose]

So what happens to the RAF after 2015?


Well if you are the last one there, perhaps you be so kind as to turn out the light before you lock up the gate at the last Remaining RAF/RN merged base, RAF Queen Elizabeth, anchored out on Doggerbank so as not to disturb the NIMBY's who have long since built their new houses and Mosques on Coningsby, Odiham,Brize Norton etc........ :ugh:

[vecvechookattack]

How do you know that you are not about to be made redundant?

Because there was a DIN issued on Wednesday which told those who were not on the list that they were safe

[Jayand]

Cazatou, "Nobody in HMG makes any effort to explain to the British Public in simple terms exactly why we are in Afghanistan."
There is a good reason why nobody is trying to explain to the British public and that is because there is no explanation!
Complete and utter waste of British tax payers money and much more importantly and sadly a complete waste of life for every nation involved.
Whatever reason or aim they have tried to sell us in the past has not been achieved, when we eventually leave not one of the politicians will honestly be able to look in the families of lost ones eyes and say it was worth it.
In ten years time it will still be the same dusty ****hole, still peddaling the worlds supply of drugs and terror
As for Iran, well if we (the west) go in there then you have to seriously wonder if we have learnt any lessons at all from history:ugh:

[Jayand]

What list?

[glad rag]

What list?

The one the little pixes gave him in his sleep.:*

[Jabba_TG12]

Sad but true Caz.

last one out, turn out the lights... :sad:

[Trim Stab]

By then the yanks might have elected Sarah Palin as President.

The world will rapidly become a very dangerous place. Who knows, she might even mix us up with France and try to nuke us.

[cazatou]

Jayand

As the Coalition Forces in Afghanistan include Sweden - a Country which was neutral during both World Wars - it would seem that your viewpoint is not universally shared.

Pakistan would fall completely into Civil War - which would doubtless engulf the whole Sub Continent as India has a sizeable Muslim population. Iran would subjugate the UAE, Iraq, Oman and Saudi Arabia for their oil assets. There is already considerable concern in respect of Iran's Nuclear Programme, and both India and Pakistan are alleged to hold stocks of viable nuclear weapons.

The Taliban fund their activities through the opium trade and they would increase the supply of drugs substantially if Coalition Forces withdrew their Forces.

When you volunteer for Service in HM's Armed Forces you accept that your life is no longer completely your own. There are times when you have to deploy at short notice and accept conditions which do not conform to the requirements of the Health and Safety at Work legislation.

If you are not willing any longer to accept those conditions then PVR - and let someone who is willing to fulfil their obligations take your place.

[vecvechookattack]

Hear Hear...... Bugger off and let someone with a little backbone do the job.

[akula]

If we are not already there, then we'll be getting flushed here

http://fatpenguinblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/01/dirty%20toilet.jpg

[KPax]

I don't know what was said, but there was a brief at Strawbs today to RAF pilots, trainees and instructors given by the Commandant. A lot of pensive looking people.

[Blighter Pilot]

See the trg pipeline clogged thread for the general gist!

[JTIDS]

Any chance of a link to the DIN???

[Biggus]

What DIN?

vec is either talking hoop, which is not unusual, or is referring to an RN only DIN.

The RAF DIN is due out in Feb 2011. Dates for all 3 RAF tranches (publication of field dates, decision notification dates, exit dates, etc) have been briefed by Manning, at least they have at one location.

Basically there is nothing you can do, except some individual long term speculative planning, until Feb/Mar 2011.

[vecvechookattack]

Apologies - It was an RN only Galaxy which told those who were safe that they were not going to be made redundant. If I recall correctly the only Aviators under threat were Sea King Pilots....which kind of makes sense.

[Talk Split]

Vec,

You either did not read the Galaxy note or are just spouting rubbish...

Across the FAA, the only PILOTS that are safe are QHIs (current within 6 years on SK4, Lynx and Merlin).

QOIs and Aircrewmen were also listed.

[vecvechookattack]

and all Pilots who are still within their ROS. A quick poll of those who are outside of their ROS and not instructors revealed..... Not many

[Rigga]

So what do I think? not that it means diddly-squat.

Dave stated that there would be a regular parliamentary review every 5 years to try and clear the build-up of waste...no reason to doubt that yet.

In 2014 troops should at least be pulling out of the combat zones, that we're already in, to complete their currently stated mission tasking by 2015.

So, a reduction of troop requirements will coincide with the next timed parliamentary review...just think about that for a bit...

What was the question again?

[Finningley Boy]

A series of rapid expansion schemes!:ok:

FB:)

[davejb]

So what happens to the RAF after 2015?


Well, at a guess, as there won't be enough people or airframes to constitute a corps, they'll form the Royal Flying Battalion.

Until the crap hits of course, when 'they' will discover that you can't resurrect a 2000+ era airforce as readily (given unlimited funds, which won't happen anyway) as you can a 1930's airforce.

At that point we all become followers of Islam, or Terminated, or assimilated by the Borg, or whatever the threat we can't deal with happens to be.

Dave

[Jayand]

Backbone has nothing to do with it, belief in the cause does.
Am sat watching the millies and am in complete awe at all the things that have been done by so many, history shows that the 2 world wars were fought for truly just reasons, can the same be said of the last few conflicts? history will show the same levels of bravery as 70 years previous but public support for the cause and understanding of the sacrifices will not be remembered so well.
I have no problem doing a job that I signed up for, it was cazatou who questioned why we aren't explained to the public better, I just answered what the Governments and nobody else seems to be able to.
We will leave in the next five years, do you honestly believe we will leave behind a better place? if not then what ha s it all been for?

[RumPunch]

I have been really inspired by CAS speach, its the same speech that was given by a different CAS in previous years . Merry Xmas blah blah blah nobody cares but throws in tough times for people. Do they have a standard speach to give out as they have no idea what its like in the real world anymore as they so shoved up there own arse they cant ****. :ugh:

Leadership is what we are told ,follow the top leaders of men. They out number us Ordinary Ranks yet not one stands up and fights.

20 years service I am a small fish but I want to leave ASAP just like many others. RAF= Joke hahahahah

[Tiger_mate]

Whatever happens post 2014 I will witness from afar as I will be gone. However I will look back through the rose tinted specs in the knowledge that during the Cold War, we were pretty good at completing the task even when faced with an overwhelming opposition. Likewise Op Banner was supported in partnership (not joint) with our Army peers pretty efficiently and most inter service rivalry never got beyond banter. The Falklands was a credit to UK Military Plc but lets not take away that the Navy & Marines did the lions share. We heard little regarding the RAF QRA but that is almost certainly because it worked most of the time. Gulf War 1&2 will be seen as a tenuous campaign by western bully boys based upon an argument that had little foundation. I dare say Wikileaks will expose this in the coming months.

We have overstayed our welcome in Germany and when the RAF pulled the plug in the early ninties, the Army should have followed in total. I am not a big fan of the US using the UK as a Carrier with a concrete anchor either. I appreciate that the Army required somewhere to go, but lets face it that is a pretty pathetic excuse built upon retaining a good quality of life for the troops and retaining access to awesome training areas.

In the fullness of time I believe that the premature demise of Harrier and the execution of not only Nimrod but any MPA will be perceived as the mother of all mistakes. An island with internationally agreed SAR commitments that is clearly exposed to a MCT threat really must have a fixed wing aircraft capable of completing the MPA role. I suspect in the future it (not Nimrod but a.n.other) will be resurected despite the inevitable loss of skills.

The potential overswing to shortfalls and panic recruitment that may be seen post 2014 will be a fiscal based decision. What we are undergoing at this time comes very close to a clean sheet & start again strategy. I fear that in 2015 (if that is post Afghan) the Army Manning will be massacred by politicians, and the Navy and RAF 'trimmed' even further.

MFTS or its descendent is expected to have been sorted by then and I suspect that some of the advanced training will be replaced with an expanded OCU, ie training on operational type. The graduates will not be as slick but such direction is achievable and cost cutting. The more expensive flying hours argument is not robust enough to compete against doing the same exercise over again on two differant courses.

Morale, Standards, Professionalism will be decayed and Traditions a luxury that cannot be afforded. Thank goodness I will have gone.

[Training Risky]

Tiger mate - spot on.

Words like loyalty, respect, spirit and commitment have no meaning to me any longer...the RAF I joined as a starry-eyed idealistic kid in 1999 has seen to that.

My lexicon is now filled with words like LEAN, overstretch, DWR, harmony 'guidelines', risk-mangement, capability holiday etc.

Shame really - but that's the world we live in now.

It's going to get worse before it gets better.

Happy non-denominational holiday everyone.:uhoh:

[Rigga]

- but you dont really mean "happy" do you? - Shouldn't you close your statement with "benevolent non-denominational..."and so on.

(can't say "etc" in case some poor mother... can't understand it)

[iRaven]

What will the RAF look like after 2015???

http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a145/ankoo/milarycutbacks.jpg

This is Quick Reaction Alert only though :ok:

[Melchett01]

Well AOC 1 Gp thinks we will be compared to Belgium by the time this whole round of stupidity is finished.

RAF commander: our air force will be little better than Belgium’s - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/8212090/RAF-commander-our-air-force-will-be-little-better-than-Belgiums.html)

Funny how his comments now 'appear to have been taken out of context'. I really can't see how, it was a fairly unambiguous statement.

[BEagle]

And yet, when he took over from Torpy, Dalton is on record as having said:
"I am very conscious of the enormous privilege and responsibility that I have been given as the Chief of the Air Staff to lead the Royal Air Force over the next few years. I recognise that I take on this honour at a time when the RAF is continuing to make the vital and highly effective contribution to the UK Armed Forces' enduring military operations in Afghanistan.

"Combining these with the RAF's other operational commitments - 24/7 protection of United Kingdom airspace, the continuing obligation for the protection of the Falkland Islands, maritime air operations around the UK and search and rescue missions across the UK - means that the Royal Air Force is exceptionally busy.


:rolleyes:

[Yozzer]

An SAS Colonel is reported to have resigned in protest at Govt cuts receiving little media coverage. Quite a dignified if wasted gesture.
Perhaps in this case the same theme but a little more overt. Has RAF HQ closed for Christmas yet? It'll be dust under the carpet by January

SAS commander resigns over defence cuts | The Sun |News|Campaigns|Our Boys (http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/campaigns/our_boys/3274969/SAS-commander-resigns-over-defence-cuts.html)

[Phil_R]

When I realised in the early 2000s that the RAF's fast jet fleet was half of its cold war size, this seemed somewhat reasonable as a dividend for peace, although recent and proposed cuts provoke deeper frowns.

Here's the question, though: how much have comparable organizations diminished in the same time frame? The French, the Americans?

[Finningley Boy]

When I realised in the early 2000s that the RAF's fast jet fleet was half of its cold war size, this seemed somewhat reasonable as a dividend for peace, although recent and proposed cuts provoke deeper frowns.

Here's the question, though: how much have comparable organizations diminished in the same time frame? The French, the Americans?


Others have diminished, but to nowhere near the proposed point that the R.A.F. is expected to reach next year. The French used to have marginally fewer combat aircraft than us, they currently have marginally more. Next year, I believe their numbers will not change, but ours will shed assets quite considerably. Furthermore, as has been pointed out, this country has money to burn. Its just a question of which portfolio the government chooses to burn it on. With Defence spending at 2.5% of gdp now and at more than 5% in the period 1984 to 1985, its easy to see how additional spending can be justified. Even so, as a broad comparison, the Dutch Air Force currently have six squadrons of F16s (one training role). They are a country the geographical scale of East Anglia with a population less than 30% of that of the United Kingdom. And a Defence Budget of 1.4%. Its a broad comparison, but it certainly puts the question marks over the efficiency of our Ministry of Defence and governance in general.:O

FB:)

[Biggus]

Before you make too many comparisons with the Dutch - don't forget that they disbanded their P-3 fleet, which had, justifiably, one of the best reputations in the NATO MPA community.

[engineer(retard)]

As I recall, the peace dividend occured during a period of sustained ops. Northern and Southern watch, Kosovo etc when we had trouble fielding enough platforms.

[TBM-Legend]

"Peace in out time" proclaims new PM Neville Clegg :}

[Sandy Parts]

And at least the Dutch have a very capable CoastGuard Air 'Corps' (home and deployed) - where many ex-P3NL aviators now serve I understand. We on the other hand have... a couple of non-governmental (private contract) twin turboprop fisheries monitoring aircraft (one division of which is costed so close to the bone, it recently had to be resurrected after the parent contractor went bust).

[Phil_R]

it certainly puts the question marks over the efficiency of our Ministry of Defence and governance in general

That's more or less where my line of thought was going.

I'm sure I'm going to get crucified for saying this, but it seems to me that with a fairly certain immediate future of military security , and a very certain present of severe economic strife, cutting armed forces is not, in principle, a completely indefensible option. It is also not in principle indefensible for public money to sponsor job-creation schemes. But if they're going to do either of those things, they should do it straightforwardly. The alternative is mixed messages - are the carriers being built to provide carriers, or to employ shipbuilders - and my impression is that it leads to massive inefficiency.

Cuts are worrying, but I'd like to know that at least we were getting value for money from what's left.

P

[BEagle]

I caught a TV programme earlier today which revealed that the UK had something like 147 different types of aircraft in WW2....all of which were ferried by the ATA at one time or another. One of the ATA pilots was told to go and help to move a mere 200 Spitfires from Castle Bromwich as they were considered vulnerable to Luftwaffe bombing...

And now the RAF is to be reduced to a pathetic 8 (or even 6) squadrons of fast-jets? Ridiculous.

The question to ask the government is whether they are happy with 'Fully Comprehensive' insurance for the defence of the UK and its interests, or just 'Third Party, Fire and Theft'.....:rolleyes:

[F3sRBest]

And now the RAF is to be reduced to a pathetic 8 (or even 6) squadrons of fast-jets? Ridiculous

So we should never look forward and adapt, but always look back with rose-tinted spectacles? Arghhh!

[cazatou]

BEagle

The question is how many members of the current Government have seen Service (let alone Active Service) in the Military. Very few Members of either House will even have memories of WW2 or Korea and even fewer will have seen Active Service.

When Mrs Thatcher came to power many of her Senior Cabinet Members had seen Active Service; Lord Carrington for example had won a Military Cross with Guards Armoured Division. The same was true on the Opposition benches, Mr Callaghan had been Commissioned from the lower deck during WW2.

Serving Bishops sit in the House of Lords - why not the Heads of each of the Services?

Just a thought

[JTIDS]

If you put the Heads of service into the House of Lords they become political.

Of course they are in many ways political already, but having them in a position where they vote on the issues of the day (inc. the defence budget) seems a step to far.

[cazatou]

JTIDS

1. And the Bishops?

2. A MRAF never retires - MRAF Lord Craig sits in the upper House.

[Jackonicko]

When I realised in the early 2000s that the RAF's fast jet fleet was half of its cold war size, this seemed somewhat reasonable as a dividend for peace, although recent and proposed cuts provoke deeper frowns.

That would presuppose that the RAF's fast jet force was ever big enough to FIGHT a conventional conflict during the Cold War, rather than being sized to 'buy time'.

It would presuppose that the force structure that was big enough to allow us to mount an operation like Granby (a reasonable conflict to scale forces for to meet post Cold War challenges) or to be able to mount simultaneous ops in the Balkans and in Ops Northern and Southern Watch while still being able to meet 'contingencies'.

If we agree that the post Cold War world is a dangerous and unpredictable place, then surely being able to handle these scales of task don't seem unreasonable?

Taking the 'five turns of the handle' model for enduring ops, then surely having 25-30 FJ squadrons, allowing us to be able to deploy five or six squadrons, is not an unrealistic aspiration for a nation of Britain's size and pretensions to influence and importance? 18 Squadrons (able to support an enduring deployment by three squadrons, without compromising UK AD) certainly doesn't seen excessive, while a 12 Squadron FJ force seems too small, and anything less a joke.

Yet we are told, with apparent equanimity, that the RAF could no longer 'do a Granby or a Telic'. In today's unstable and dangerous world, how is that OK?

[TwoTunnels]

With only 6 (or 8) FJ squadrons, how on earth is the RAF going to do 'Combat' ISTAR as well?
Maybe if you got all those squadrons airborne at the same time, formated in line abreast and flew over the sea and land to search the same area as a Nimrod and Sentinel.
:ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Phil_R]

I'm not sure I would ever have expected the UK to have been able to unilaterally win a cold war turned hot.

In today's unstable and dangerous world, how is that OK?

Wearing my devil's-advocate hat, because we could have chosen not to do them. I would be the first one to advocate a much more muscular, interventionist foreign policy if I thought we could afford it, but while we can't, that might not be an unreasonable choice.

Funnily enough, I'd arrived at a 12-18 reasonable minimum as well, and if I can do it, I suspect the issue is not the complexity of the problem.

P

[JTIDS]

JTIDS

1. And the Bishops?

2. A MRAF never retires - MRAF Lord Craig sits in the upper House.


Church and state are linked in the UK which is why the Bishops get their seat in the House of Lords, and also why Church of England Law has the same force as law passed by parliament. I don't think this is correct in the 21st C but that is why its there. Incidentally the last time the State and the military were linked was during the interregnum after the civil war, and I don't think that worked out too well for anyone!

The Field Marshal's and equivalent who now sit in the upper house I think only received their rank and place in the House of Lords on the day of their retirement from active service. They never sat whilst they were still serving full time. This policy of promoting heads of service on retirement was I believe abandoned in the mid 90's.