Sth Korea deploy F16's as the 2 Korea's exchange artillery rounds

[Sqwark2000]

From the NZ Herald website:

Tensions between the Korean nations have reached a boiling point as North Korea fired dozens of rounds of shells at a South Korean island tonight.

Two people have been confirmed injured, and up to 60 houses are on fire, Sky News reported, as shells continued to fall on Yeonpyeong Island, near the western border.

South Korean authorities are on their highest wartime alert and have deployed F16 planes in response to northern aggression.

South Korean officials, including President Lee Mung-Bak, are meeting at an underground bunker in Seoul to plan their response.

Mr Lee said he was trying to prevent a greater conflict, the Korean Broadcasting System (KBS) website said.

KBS reported 14 South Korean soldiers had been injured, four seriously.

South Korea television network YTN said between 1,200 and 1,300 people live on the island, citing an island resident. TV pictures showed black and white smoke rising from the island.

Citizens on the island have reportedly fled to bunkers.

A South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff official (JCS) said dozens of rounds of artillery landed on the island and in the sea. The official said South Korea fired back. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of JCS rules, said South Korea's military is on alert. He had no other details.

South Korea officials said it has deployed F16 jets.

The firing comes amid tension over North Korea's claim that it has a new uranium enrichment facility and just over a month after North Korean leader Kim Jong Il unveiled his youngest son Kim Jong Un as his heir apparent.

Tensions between the two Koreas also remain tense after the sinking in March of a South Korean warship in which 46 sailors died. Seoul has blamed a North Korean torpedo, while Pyongyang has denied any responsibility.

The countries' western maritime boundary has long been a flash point between the two Koreas. The North does not recognise the border that was unilaterally drawn by the United Nations at the close of the 1950-53 Korean War.

North and South Korea have fought three bloody skirmishes near the maritime border in recent years, most recently in November 2009.

- NZ Herald staff, AP

[Donna K Babbs]

What a good job we haven't just binned the Harrier, MRA4 and reduced the RN fleet........oh hang on! :ugh:

[tonker]

It is a good idea.

Stop home, mind own business, other side of planet, we small bankrupt island.

[Whenurhappy]

Not wishing to understate the seriousness of this incident (and, inter alia,the UK & Commonwealth commitment to maintaining the ceasefire), there is always sabre-rattling between the two Koreas. DPRK's attack on the South Korean corvette earlier this year was, arguably, a more serious event yet South Korea remained steadfast.

[El Grifo]

That event was a bit more stage-managably deniable that this, more bold adventure !

[BEagle]

Perhaps not, in Korea?



.

[orgASMic]

Op DENY CHRISTMAS has started early this year, hasn't it?

[Finningley Boy]

This'll push the Lossiemouth/Leuchars debate off the front page!:)

FB:uhoh:

[Willard Whyte]

What a good job we haven't just binned the Harrier, MRA4 and reduced the RN fleet........oh hang on!

Alternatively base Tiffy in Japan.

Can't think what good a Harrier would be unless they fitted them with loudspeakers and got the seat/stick interface to blather on for hours about being a Harrier pilot. The North would surrender pretty damn sharpish.

[charliegolf]

What a good job we haven't just binned the Harrier, MRA4 and reduced the RN fleet........oh hang on!

and...

It is a good idea.

Stop home, mind own business, other side of planet, we small bankrupt island.

Spot on tonker, spot on.

CG

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

I wonder if that's what the kiwis and ockers thought in '14, '39 and various tribal skirmishes since?

[Whenurhappy]

Willard Whyte,

Voice Aircraft (VA)were tried and failed during the Korean War due to the threat posed by North Korean air defence (primarily AAA). As a result, Gen Sir Gerald Templer secured several C-47 Dakotas(as we know them) from the USAF (via Gen Mark Clarke) and moved them south ot the Malay Peninsula where they were used very, very sucessfully to defeat the insurgents. Typical message was 12-15 seconds long, and repeated itself on an endless loop. Perhaps like a Bona Mate?

All seriousness, VA and leaflet dropping together were the most successful tools in causing hundreds of surrenders ('self-renewal') amoungst the Communists. By comparison, dropping c 18,000 tons of HE and FAW over five years acounted for...18 dead insurgents!

[L J R]

GBZ.........:D

[ORAC]

I wonder if that's what the kiwis and ockers thought in '14, '39 and various tribal skirmishes since? We paid our price in the original Korean War, and while the UK might feel a debt is owed to support Australia and/or New Zealand if they ran into trouble, I can't quite see how that stretches to the Koreans.

And if either wish to join the Americans in another SE Asian adventure, they did that before in Vietnam, and we didn't join them in that war either.

[charliegolf]

Orac..............::D

CG

[Rakshasa]

IIRC part of the UN ceasefire agreement from the original war (it's still only a ceasefire) was that if it kicked off again, we'd be involved again.

So it comes down to honouring commitments the UK made 55 years ago.

[ORAC]

IIRC part of the UN ceasefire agreement from the original war (it's still only a ceasefire) was that if it kicked off again, we'd be involved again. Nope.

TEXT OF THE KOREAN WAR ARMISTICE AGREEMENT (http://news.findlaw.com/wp/docs/korea/kwarmagr072753.html)

[Lonewolf_50]

Op DENY CHRISTMAS has started early this year, hasn't it?

Yep, you stole my thunder.

From the news coverage here, it appears that an SK military exercise, wherein the South were shooting artillery away from NK was used as the excuse that South were "shooting at us" by the Norkers.

They are so transparent.

[glad rag]

Best we tell the UN where to stick that then.

[SCAFITE]

I will be sleeping safe in my bed tonight cos this is not a Cyber War and Call me Dave has taken Military advice from high and we dont need Big Guns, Big Tanks, fast pointy things and those pisky sub hunters any more.

A mate teaches in a Korean town near the border and the streets are strangely empty and will be a easy walk home not having to dodge loads of folk.

[Rakshasa]

ORAC Quote:

Nope.

It's not that there is a black and white paragraph stating Britain is bound to help defend SK from NK attack. It's that we're signatories of the ceasefire as part of the UN command and that if one side did violate the terms of the agreement then technically, hostilities resume in which we're one of the beligerents.

We'd technically be at war with North Korea.

[Whenurhappy]

The UK Defence Attache used to have in his portfolio in Seoul the wartime role of COS, Commonwealth Division, or somesuch. Certainly did 4 years ago...

[Bannock]

Ahem -

The Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) are a series of defence relationships established by bilateral agreements between the United Kingdom (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), Australia (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/Australia), New Zealand (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/New_Zealand), Malaysia (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/Malaysia) and Singapore (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/Singapore) signed in 1971, whereby the five states will consult each other in the event of external aggression or threat of attack against Peninsula Malaysia (East Malaysia is not included as part of the area of responsibilities under the FPDA)or Singapore.
The FPDA was set up following the termination of the United Kingdom's defence guarantees of Malaysia and Singapore as a result of Britain's decision in 1967 to withdraw its armed forces (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/Armed_forces) east of Suez (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/East_of_Suez). The FPDA provides for defence co-operation, and for an Integrated Air Defence System (IADS) for Malaysia and Singapore based in RMAF Butterworth (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/RMAF_Base_Butterworth) under the command of an Australian Air Vice-Marshal (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/Air_Vice-Marshal) (2-star (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/2_star_rank)). RMAF Butterworth, until 1988 under the control of the Royal Australian Air Force (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/Royal_Australian_Air_Force), is now owned by the Royal Malaysian Air Force (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/Royal_Malaysian_Air_Force), but hosts rotating detachments of aircraft and personnel from all five countries.
In 1981, the five powers organised the first annual land and naval exercises. Since 1997, the naval and air exercises have been combined. In 2001, HQ IADS was redesignated Headquarters Integrated "Area" Defence System. It now has personnel from all three branches of the armed services, and co-ordinates the annual five-power naval and air exercises, while moving towards the fuller integration of land elements.
John Moore (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/John_Moore_(Australian_politician)), then Minister for Defence of Australia said, "As an established multilateral (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/Multilateralism) security framework, the FPDA has a unique role in Asia. It is of strategic benefit to all member nations and, in Australia's view, to the wider Asia-Pacific (http://www.pprune.org/wiki/Asia-Pacific) region.

Link below

"http://ukinmalaysia.fco.gov.uk/en/about-us/working-with-malaysia/defence-new/five-power-defence-arrangements


A key aspect of this arangement was UK PLCs wish to support our partners with LRMPA,CVS with Harrier and SSN support. SDSR my Arse. Yet again an example of relying on partner nations to wipe our :mad: whilst ignoring obligations to others but happy to financially support someone not too far away and not too long ago, that wouldn't piss on us if we were on fire.

Respect,Integrity and oh never mind.

I need to f:mad: lie down.

[ORAC]

We'd technically be at war with North Korea Technically, there was never a war, it was just a U.N. peace keeping operation under Resolution 83, (http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/3b00f20a2c.html) with the USA named as their executive agent. No war was ever declared, so we can't still be at war.

[Rakshasa]

Recommends that the Members of the United Nations furnish such assistance to the Republic of Korea as may be necessary to repel the armed attack and to restore international peace and security in the area.

I think you and I maybe interpreting that a little differently. :}

[Wyler]

Did 2 years with the FPDA.

T!ts, Bull, Fireguard, Chocolate, Fish and Bike spring to mind.

[ORAC]

No declaration of war.

USA: Korean Conflict: (http://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/korean-conflict/) ........Truman did not seek a formal declaration of war from Congress; officially, America's presence in Korea amounted to no more than a "police action.".......

UK: Parliament and the use of force: (http://www.parliament.uk/documents/documents/upload/snia-01218.pdf).......A debate was held on 5 July 1950, and this was on a substantive motion:that this House fully supports the action taken by His Majesty’s Government in conformity with their obligations under the United Nations Charter, in helping to resist the unprovoked aggression against the Republic of Korea.

[Lonewolf_50]

ORAC, that is a fascinating parsing of language, however one will also find that a state of belligerency exists regardless of any declaration or otherwise. Put another way, your patch and mine are at war when you invade me whether you declared anything or not. All that needs showing is that a state of belligerency exists.

This becomes politically important in a number of ways, since once the state of belligerency exists, the laws and rules of war apply, else My Lai cannot have been a war crime.

[VinRouge]

http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/Everyone%20Else/images/kim-jong-il-in-team-america.jpg

Sorry. Just had to get that off my chest. :E

One would suggest that Korea is a litle too far for our completely knackered AT fleet anyways.

[minigundiplomat]

I can see yet another bombardment of the airwaves and print presses by the dark blue using this as justification for keeping the Harrier and Ark Royal - In fact anything grey prior SDSR plus 2 white elephants.

I'm reticent to open the Telegraph these days lest I learn that global warming is due to the SDSR cuts on the RN. Someone must have 'leaned' their ipod again.

[advocatusDIABOLI]

Vin,

Isn't that the soon to be elected President's Photo? !!!

Do you have a time machine?

Advo

[Bannock]

Minigundiplomat,
SLOC means Sea lines of Communication. Wether it is light blue or dark blue its vital for a nation such as ours to preserve its integrity. Irrelevant of how long that line is. Do me a favour and go for a walk around your house and look at where everything comes from. Then ask yourself why you bought it? Was it because it was reliable and cheap, and possibly made in an exotic country that you once visited on Det or was because it was from an average and more expensive country that you would avoid going on Det to.
The reason why Ireland became the Celtic Tiger it was and we became its major trading partner was they were so wealthy and they didn’t mind paying extra for average. Well, we are now propping them up and I am sure that out of appreciation they will continue to buy from us. Only a complete sceptic would expect them to find a cheaper trading partner to exist with.
As for massive financial aid to India and their latest defence procurements including a new MPA fleet, SSNs and Carriers I shouldn’t have to point out the bleeding obvious.
We are taking austerity measures not for the good of UK plc but to allow others to take the piss.
Oh well back to bed!

[JFZ90]

I heard about this Korean exchange at work, and came home to just catch the headline artice on the ITV1 main news.

The top story I tuned into however was where the Middleton family might sit in Westminster Abbey.

Obviously not as newsworthy. :ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Willard Whyte]

Whenurhappy, familiar with psyops, just like riling jump(ed up) jet jocks.

[tonker]

The royal wedding is directly relevant to us. An artillery strike the other side of the planet is less relevant, especially if we take our military place on this. We have 38,000 infantry soldiers! They have a 1,000,000.

Are we a military super power.NO

Are we geographically local.NO

Do we have the military recourses and resolve to involve ourselves in a conflict that is none of our business.NO

Is Germany, France, Brazil, Australia(local), Canada, Turkey(4th biggest army in the world) talking themselves into a conflict? NO:ugh:

[racedo]

I reckon South Koreans have been heavily infiltrated by North Koreans to make the west pay. Otherwise how do you account for all those Hyundai and Kia cars.

I think North Korea is in Leadership transition which can go anyway hence a need to appear strong.

[orgASMic]

JFZ90 - ITN ran Korea as the headline piece last night (for about 3 minutes), but that wedding did get second billing and rather more of the 'analysis'. Clearly the researchers are more interested in a day off next April than new and interesting opportunities for blood-letting.

[chopper2004]

USS George Washington carrier battle group is heading up the way for the still planned exercise with the RoK and also as a show of force from what I just read :cool:

Statement: Naval Readiness Exercise Announced - Korea Real Time - WSJ (http://blogs.wsj.com/korearealtime/2010/11/24/statement-naval-readiness-exercise-announced/)

[BEagle]

Yup, that'll surely help to calm things down.......:rolleyes:

[Two's in]

Well despite yesterday's schoolgirl hysteria across the American media, today, the biggest threat to our national security is once again a high school drop-out with the TSA touching Granny's prosthetic limb in an inappropriate manner.

[RubiC Cube]

I'm sitting in the transit lounge at Paris CDG having just landed from Seoul having just had an exceptionally long flight the wrong way around N Korea to avoid the conflict zone.

Korean TV was full of the news last night and this morning, but basically rerunning the same 5 min segment over and over again. Seoul was operating as normal amd my Korean hosts were interested but not overly concerned.

Technically North and South Korea are still at war, the western allies are just guarantors of peace (IIRC from a briefing received nearly 20 years ago).

Still I will be keeping half an eye on whats happening there.

[RubiC Cube]

PS There was a lot more visible security in Seoul last week for the G20

[BEagle]

It'll be interesting to see the difference between the news as reported on Sky Ch 509 (Fox News) and Ch. 510 (China Central TV News).

The redneck 'Nuke 'em NOW!' nonsense of Fox News is always worth a laugh...:\

[BEagle]

If you've got a rabid dog in your garden, you don't prod it with sticks, you stay well away from it and it will die in it's own time.In Korea, you probably wouldn't need to wait that long....

[Modern Elmo]

SLOC means Sea lines of Communication. Wether it is light blue or dark blue its vital for a nation such as ours to preserve its integrity. Irrelevant of how long that line is. Do me a favour and go for a walk around your house and look at where everything comes from. Then ask yourself why you bought it? Was it because it was reliable and cheap, and possibly made in an exotic country that you once visited on Det or was because it was from an average and more expensive country that you would avoid going on Det to.

Are some of these things in your house electronic devices incorporating rather advanced technologies? Has it ever occurred to you that that it’s not good for Britain to be dependent on foreigners for electronics?

And in the longer run, how is Britain supposed to balance or offset its trade deficit with respect to higher-tech manufactures? With more exports of pop music and TV shows? Are east Asians supposed to do all their investing with City of London banks?

The reason why Ireland became the Celtic Tiger it was and we became its major trading partner was they were so wealthy and they didn’t mind paying extra for average. Well, we are now propping them up and I am sure that out of appreciation they will continue to buy from us. Only a complete sceptic would expect them to find a cheaper trading partner to exist with.
….

We sure do hope that British armed force can continue to keep SLOC in the Iraish Sea open … Quite a challenging task, but you guys may be up to it.

AS for Ireland having been a wealthy Celtic Tiger – No, it wasn’t. Too much credit and debt was created in Ireland, the collateral for the loans being vastly inflated real estate values.

It looks like Eire may have to go back to balancing its trade deficit the old fashioned Irish way – by the export of Irish people.

[Fire 'n' Forget]

Some keen amateurs out there, tbf he put a bit of work into his thread using google earth. Im sure he wants a job in the CIA, the time he spent on this especially further pages in is incredible.

Bluffer's guide: Fortress North Korea (http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?128528-Bluffer-s-guide-Fortress-North-Korea)

[JFZ90]

Interesting to see the 2 replies to my post about how ITV thought the royal wedding was a bigger story than this Korean spat.

Both appeared to assume that somehow UK forces potential involvement (or otherwise) would have a bearing on its newsworthyness - in other words, as we probably won't get involved its therefore of no interest so back to the wedding.

In my view, it should be irrelevant whether the UK would consider any military intervention - 2 countries lobbing weapons at each other should always be a bigger story than 2 people getting married.

[lomapaseo]

Some keen amateurs out there, tbf he put a bit of work into his thread using google earth. Im sure he wants a job in the CIA, the time he spent on this especially further pages in is incredible.

Bluffer's guide: Fortress North Korea (http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?128528-Bluffer-s-guide-Fortress-North-Korea)


One curiosity is the apparent gap in the outer AAA ring on the West side of the city. There is no clear explanation for that.




Might that be a clue that their air defence has a weakness in discerning friends & foe so they have to allow a safe channel for friendlies. :}

[ORAC]

Things aren't cooling down in Korea, the South seems to have reached the end of their tether with the North, regardless of the pleas of the Chinese (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/27/world/asia/27korea.html?src=me).

DefenseNews: North Korea Issues More Warnings As Naval Exercises Await (http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5115805&c=ASI&s=SEA)

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea warned Nov. 27 of "unpredictable consequences" if the United States and South Korea go ahead with naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, days after launching a deadly attack on the South.

The U.S. aircraft carrier USS George Washington and its battle group were planning four days of exercises with South Korea from Nov. 28 as a show of force after Pyongyang stunned the world with its artillery strike. The planned drill has also heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing, which regards the Yellow Sea as its own ancestral waters and has refrained from condemning its communist ally Pyongyang over the Nov. 23 attack.

Washington has stressed that the maneuver is "defensive in nature," was planned before North Korea's attack and is not aimed against China. But North Korea's official KCNA news agency issued an ominous warning: "If the U.S. brings its carrier to the West Sea of Korea [Yellow Sea] at last, no one can predict the ensuing consequences".

The Nov. 23 attack - the first shelling of civilians since the 1950-53 Korean war, which Pyongyang says was provoked by a South Korean military exercise - has plunged the peninsula into its worst crisis in decades. The government of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has come under intense pressure from the opposition, newspapers and veterans groups to take a more forceful line against the regime of Kim Jong-Il.

Gen. Yoo Nak-Joon, the commander South Korea's Marine Corps, grimly pledged to "repay North Korea a hundred- and thousand-fold" for the deaths of two Marines, at their Nov. 27 funeral ceremony televised nationwide. "We'll engrave this outrage deep into our bones," he said.

Hundreds of mourners including the prime minister, Marines and weeping relatives paid their last respects to Sergeant Suh Jung-Woo, 22, and Private Moon Kwang-Wook, 20, who died in the attack along with two civilians. They filed past their portraits to lay flowers and light incense at an altar decorated with white chrysanthemums, before three rifle shots echoed for their final salute and their bodies were buried at a national cemetery.

KCNA also said two civilian deaths from its artillery strike were "if true ... very regrettable" but also charged civilians had been used as "human shields" by being placed near artillery positions.

Lee in a security meeting warned that "there is a possibility that North Korea might commit wayward acts during the exercise," according to Hong Sang-Pyo, senior secretary for public affairs at the presidential Blue House.

The newly named defense minister, Kim Kwan-Jin, had earlier pledged a tougher response in case of another North Korean attack, vowing that "we need to hit back multiple times as hard," a news report said. Kim, 61, a former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, replaced Kim Tae-Young, who resigned over criticism that South Korea was too soft in its response to the attack, firing artillery shells but not launching air strikes.

In Seoul, about 1,000 South Korean marine veterans held a rally, burning the North Korean flag and portraits of Kim Jong-Il and his son, the 27-year-old heir-apparent Kim Jong-Un. One of the demonstrators, Lee Kwang-Sun, said the elderly men in camouflage uniforms were prepared to return to active duty, said: "We are ready to rush to the frontline if we are asked to do so."

Many newspaper editorials demanded an urgent military overhaul.

The Korea JoongAng Daily charged that "the military's credibility and potency has become highly questionable as it scurries and scrambles in the face of bolder provocation from the North."

The Korea Herald said that "the South should secure overwhelming firepower and allow fighter jets to launch counter-attacks against the North's attacks."

The Korea Times argued that "the sacking of defense minister Kim Tae-Young should be the start of the wholesale revamping of the troubled military." It added: "Without cheering soldiers amid reform, the nation will face the repetition of humiliation in the face of North Korea's military adventurism."

[ORAC]

The Independent: Expats recalled as North Korea prepares for war (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/expats-recalled-as-north-korea-prepares-for-war-2145018.html)
By Shaun Walker in Moscow

A mass exodus of North Korean workers from the Far East of Russia is under way, according to reports coming out of the region. As the two Koreas edged towards the brink of war this week, it appears that the workers in Russia have been called back to aid potential military operations.

Vladnews agency, based in Vladivostok, reported that North Korean workers had left the town of Nakhodka en masse shortly after the escalation of tension on the Korean peninsula earlier this week. "Traders have left the kiosks and markets, workers have abandoned building sites, and North Korean secret service employees working in the region have joined them and left," the agency reported.

Russia's migration service said that there were over 20,000 North Koreans in Russia at the beginning of 2010, of which the vast majority worked in construction. The workers are usually chaperoned by agents from Kim Jong-il's security services and have little contact with the world around them. Defectors have suggested that the labourers work 13-hour days and that most of their pay is sent back to the government in Pyongyang. Hundreds of workers have fled the harsh conditions and live in hiding in Russia, constantly in fear of being deported back to North Korea.

"North Korea's government sends thousands of its citizens to Russia to earn money, most of which is funnelled through government accounts," says Simon Ostrovsky, a journalist who discovered secret North Korean logging camps in the northern Siberian taiga. "Workers are often sent to remote locations for years at a time to work long hours and get as little as three days off per year." Now it appears that some kind of centralised order has been given for the workers to return home.

Russia's Pacific port of Vladivostok is thousands of miles and seven time zones from Moscow, but only around 100 miles from the country's heavily controlled border with North Korea. In 1996, a diplomat from the South Korean consulate in the city was murdered with a poisoned pencil, in what was widely believed to be a hit carried out by the North's secret agents. There are even two North Korean restaurants in the city. It is not known how many of the workers in other Russian towns have been called back to their homeland this week, or whether the exodus is permanent or temporary.

[Yamagata ken]

Here's something for those who want to bomb the crap out of North Korea's civil population.

North Korea's undercover journalists reveal misery of life in dictatorship - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/southkorea/8165274/North-Koreas-undercover-journalists-reveal-misery-of-life-in-dictatorship.html)

Harrowing

[TEEEJ]

North Korean propaganda took on an added twist with Alejandro Cao de Benos. He lives in Spain, but has a North Korean passport and divides his time between the two countries.

Alejandro Cao de Benos certainly likes dressing up in uniform! In this clip he is seen praising the North Korean Supreme People's Assembly. :ugh:

2iqWx-iwkb0

De Benos is featured in the following videos. He is the chap dressed in black with the megaphone. A rare chance to see the Demilitarised Zone from the North side.

aynLmHJHeMc

TJ

[ORAC]

Strategic Logic on the Korean Peninsula Headed Toward War (http://cogitasia.com/2010/12/07/strategic-logic-on-the-korean-peninsula-headed-towardwar/) by Victor Cha (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Cha)

There is a real possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula. The cause is not a second North Korean invasion of the South like in June 1950, which was successfully deterred by U.S. and South Korean forces. The danger stems from two combustible trends: A North Korea which mistakenly believes it is invulnerable to retaliation due to its nascent nuclear capabilities, and a South Korea that feels increasingly compelled to react with military force to the string of ever more brash provocations like the artillery barrage on Yeonpyeong Island.

The shelling of Yeongpyeong had for South Korea much broader effects than the partial evacuation of its 1,600 residents. It forced a temporary closure of Incheon International Airport, the sprawling ultramodern hub of air traffic throughout Asia that stands only 122 km from the shelled island. The artillery flew only days after world leaders converged on Seoul for the G20 summit, undoubtedly causing world leaders to think twice about the next trip given the unpredictability of the North. These periodic crises undercut South Korea’s future bids to host global mega events like the World Cup or the Winter Olympics.

President Lee Myung-bak is forced to respond with calm and measured actions every time the North provokes. The pat responses to the island shelling and the sinking of the Cheonan — of enhanced military readiness, exercises with the U.S., and diplomatic sanctions — do not work. The reality is that Pyongyang’s provocations are getting more deadly, and that Seoul’s strengths are its vulnerabilities: The more affluent, educated, and cosmopolitan South is far more wedded to the peaceful status quo than its northern neighbor, and therefore is forced to tolerate provocations even if they kill soldiers or civilians. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il sees this vulnerability and will continue to exploit it to extort concessions from the U.S. and South Korea. This is a losing strategic spiral for the South. It will soon feel compelled to break it.

When the South Koreans respond to this or future provocations, it will likely be a serious but pinpointed display of military force. The purpose would be to stop the cycle of North Korean provocation through deterrence, but it could very well ignite a major war.

To make matters worse, Pyongyang does not see that it is pushing Seoul to the edge. This is because it is under the false impression that its nascent nuclear capabilities make it invulnerable to counterattack. It is no coincidence that the artillery attack took place right after the North revealed its shiny new uranium-based nuclear program to the world. The constant references of late to the “nuclear deterrent” are not mere rhetoric. The North believes it is on a new strategic plane superior to the South and that the U.S. really is deterred.

This is a strategic logic on both sides of the DMZ that is headed toward war.......

[Lonewolf_50]

This is a strategic logic on both sides of the DMZ that is headed toward war.......

North Korean attitudes in a nutshell (stolen from an old Bob Dylan lyric)

"When you got nothin' then you got nothin' to lose"

[ORAC]

AFP: N.Korea vows to strike back if South holds island drill (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gFsThd9oPD6DcdukyK-8LKqTWPkQ?docId=CNG.4fb1629dc68392c48ffbd287f0cd9a66.931)

SEOUL — North Korea's military threatened Friday to strike back if South Korea goes ahead with an imminent live-fire drill on a border island which the communist state shelled last month.

The North "will deal the second and third unpredictable self-defensive blow" to protect its territorial waters if the South holds the one-day drill scheduled between Saturday and Tuesday, it said. "It will be deadlier than what was made on November 23 in terms of the powerfulness and sphere of the strike," according to the military statement carried by the English-language service of the North's official news agency.

The bombardment of Yeonpyeong island last month killed two marines and two civilians, injured 18 people and damaged dozens of homes. The South, outraged at the first shelling of civilian areas since the 1950-53 war, has fortified Yeonpyeong with more troops and artillery and vowed to use air power against any future attack. Its military has said its artillery will be aimed away from the North as usual during the upcoming drill, but it will respond strongly if provoked. Members of the US-led United Nations Command are scheduled to observe the drill and about 20 US soldiers will play a supporting role.

But a top US general Thursday voiced concern over a possible "chain reaction". General James Cartwright, vice chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the drill was being held on a "well-established and well-used" range in a transparent way, but could draw a North Korean reaction. "What we worry about obviously is... if North Korea were to react to that in a negative way and fire back at those firing positions on the islands, that would start potentially a chain reaction," Cartwright told reporters. "What you don't want to have happen out of that is for... us to lose control of the escalation."
Seoul military spokesmen had no immediate comment on whether the drill would go ahead despite the latest warning.

The South's defence ministry, in a statement, suggested it would be held. "Our military's stance is that we do not need to react to every single threat and unreasonable statement," it said. The ministry said it had given a warning to shipping about the drill and made its plans for the exercise public.

Yeonpyeong is just south of the Yellow Sea border drawn by United Nations forces after the war, which the North refuses to recognise. It claims the seas around the island as its own maritime territory. A firing drill into the Yellow Sea by South Korean marines based on the island on November 23 was answered by the North's deadly bombardment. "The waters off Yeonpyoong island, the target of their shelling, are the inviolable territorial waters of the DPRK (North Korea)," the North's statement said.

In an earlier message, Pyongyang's official website Uriminzokkiri warned that another war with South Korea would involve nuclear weapons. "Because of the South Koreans' reckless war policies, it is not about war or peace on the Korean peninsula but when the war will break out," the website said. "If war breaks out, it will lead to nuclear warfare and not be limited to the Korean peninsula," it said in a posting dated Thursday.........