Security and Defence against what?

[RansS9]

I have been reading with interest threads on SDR, Future Carrier and Independant Nuclear Deterence.
Rather than speculating about how many Type 22's, CVGs, Typhoons, Challengers, Helicopters, Battalions, spies, Satellities, Drones etc we need it would be interesting to speculate on present and future threats to ourselves/allies/ planet.

What threats (in the broadest sense) are real now?
What threats could emerge and how much flexibilty should we preserve?
What elements of history can inform the answers?
Are the threats able to be prioritized?
How are those threats best defended against?
If they can be prioritized can this be used to efficiently direct limited funds?
How much needs to be done alone? How much in partnership and with whom?

Surely these are the key questions the answers from which should dictate SDR.

[Pontius Navigator]

Rans, 10/10 for stating the bleedin obvious. Obvious that is except to the politicians of the moment. We must hope that the NSC has the balls to determine policy and then let the MOD propose the means by which we should implement that policy.

[Jabba_TG12]

You're right, they should.

Unfortunately, someone forgot to tell the starred community that. They're far too busy trying to perpetuate their "knife fight in a phone box" to preserve their own empires.

Treasury divide and rule, first started in the 1960's. Set them fighting amongst each other. Makes HMT's role that little bit easier, if they cant be seen to be reaching a co-ordinated decision themselves. And, unfortunately, considering the weakness of most of the defence secretaries since then, no-one has got hold of the place, shaken it warmly by the throat and had the experience, vision or desire to do just what you have advocated.

Not really much of a change where Foxy is concerned., unfortunately.

[racedo]

Surely these are the key questions the answers from which should dictate SDR.

How dare you suggest that as you would then remove the lucrative consulting roles for recently retired ossifers............they all can't play golf you know.:{

Its a fair question but don't expect any answer.

[Modern Elmo]

What threats (in the broadest sense) are real now?

3td world immigrants

What threats could emerge ...

Additional 3td world immigrants

What elements of history can inform the answers?

Former Yugoslavia. Before that, Andalusia or Byzantium

[Piltdown Man]

Big picture stuff: Will we actually press the button if we have to? And if we will press the button, will we allowed to (on our own)? And if we could, who would we obliterate? If the answer is No to either of of the first two questions or don't know to the third, then we have to decommission our nuclear weapons now.

Little picture stuff: We have thousands of prats, goons and idiots in procurement now. Don't axe them, get the chainsaw out. 2/3rds minimum. I'm sure we are also top heavy on chiefs as well. And I'd like to prevent anyone who leaves the forces, procurement or politics being prevent from employment or consultancy work with the defence industry for a minimum of two years from leaving.

Our front line guys have to have some help on return and leaving the forces. Too many end up hitting the bottle or buffers and far too many who are injured don't get proper support. They shouldn't have to worry about prosthetic limbs, adapted cars, computers and so forth.

Legal stuff: Make sure the suppliers takes the risk. We specify, they quote. On delivery to spec., on time we pay. Finish. If anybody in procurement changes the spec. chop their fingers of and divide their pension out with their colleagues.

Oh, and buy some helicopters - who cares who flies them.

PM

[Pontius Navigator]

And I'd like to prevent anyone who leaves the forces, procurement or politics being prevent from employment or consultancy work with the defence industry for a minimum of two years from leaving.

Our front line guys have to have some help on return and leaving the forces.

Bit of a conflict here. Being employed or as a consultant would be an ideal for a front line guy leaving the forces.

Although I agree that some consultancies are self-licking lollipops. There was one, fronted by a very personable ex Lt Col, who collected buckets of money for presenting documents that were effectively a reprint from a JSP that we had to populate.

Where they had populated the documents as a first hash it was a complete nonsense. When we eventually worked out what it was all about we realised we might need a bucket of money for what was effectively a CYA document. Finally, when completed, it simply sat on a shelf for 2 years gathering dust with one happy serving Col whose a*se was now covered and an equally happy pension drawer banking his consultant fees too.

[sitigeltfel]

The most dangerous threats are always the ones that everyone saw coming, but chose to ignore.

[Laarbruch72]

1: What threats (in the broadest sense) are real now?
Who knows? We order and buy equipment 5-20 years in advance so you need to know who your foe will be in 5-20 years time. As you know that's impossible. Today the threat might be North Korea, Iran, and maybe China. In 20 years time it might be India, Russia (again) or even Japan, who knows?

2: What threats could emerge and how much flexibilty should we preserve?
You need to preserve the maximum flexibility possible, because you don't know, ever, who the agressor of tomorrow is.

3: What elements of history can inform the answers?
None. The past can't inform you about an uncertain future.

4: Are the threats able to be prioritized?
No.

5: How are those threats best defended against?
See answer 1-4.

6: If they can be prioritized can this be used to efficiently direct limited funds?
Not really.

7: How much needs to be done alone? How much in partnership and with whom?
I personally believe we don't need to be in partnership with the USA any more... lets face it, anyone "in partnership" is getting shafted, just look at JSF. You're a poor relation. So we go it alone, and keep our noses out of everyone else's business, and we might not be everybody's target in the next 50 years.

Evening all.

[racedo]

The most dangerous threats are always the ones that everyone saw coming, but chose to ignore.

So what can nukes do about Global Warming ?

[MATELO]

What threats could emerge and how much flexibilty should we preserve?

For 40 years we "practiced" for action against the Warsaw Pact.

For the last 20 years it has been sand and insurgents.

I dont think anybody can really predict the future "enemy" with any great confidence.

[teeteringhead]

It's always the "unknown unknowns" isn't it?

I heard that in the back end of 1999, when everyone was getting all aflutter about the Millenium Bug, the B Word, who was AMP at the time, realised he was double-hatted as UK Home Defence Commander or similar.

At the end of a briefing of his staff and Stn Cdrs, having discussed contingencies many and varied, he apparently said:

"But most importantly, gentlemen, are there any unforeseen circumstances that we haven't thought of!!":ugh::ugh: