Timing is key

[Paperplanes89]

Dear all,

I know this post is a little bit specific to me, and I apologise for that, but perhaps some can relate to similar circumstances.

Firstly, desparately want to be a pilot eventually making it to the airlines/cargo (BIG JETS :cool:). Obviously at the moment there is probably very little point in starting training as all jobs are few and far between. (most definitely the impression from this forum).

I graduate university in June 2012, with a degree (BA politics)totally useless for what a ultimately want to do. I will be almost 23 when I graduate. Thing is I have been offered the opportunity to go and study in the USA for a year which I would really love to do, but would add an extra year to my course, thus I would be almost 24 upon graduation. Now I have read the perpetual 'am I too old?' thread and see that 24 is not strictly speaking going to be a problem. However, will being 24 be a noticeable disadvantage in what is an extremely competitive job market - (will be 26 upon completion of training). I mean, a lot of guys finishing flight training are likely to be 20-23 years old and I'll be in the same pile but 26.

Secondly, I appreciate that none of you have crystal balls, but as a general rule will going into flight training later be better as we try and crawl ourselves out of this black hole of a recession? Is 2015 likely to be better than 2014, jobwise? -Really I guess I am looking forward some kind of justification for having a year out in the USA which will be tremendous fun but may possibly be detrimental to my life long ambition of being a pilot. I think maybe I should just knuckle down, get through my degree and get on with things?

Sorry this post is a little messy, any info or general opinions are warmly welcomed. Thanks PPRuNers!

Paperplanes89:ok:

[mad_jock]

The age won't be a problem.

The going away and working in another country will look good on your CV.

Go away to the USA and try not to get Gonorrhea which the majority of people I know your age that went over there caught.

And as for when to get trained, I really don't know or have a clue to be honest.

[Bealzebub]

Some might argue (tongue in cheek) that a degree in "BA politics" would take a lifetime to achieve but give you an understanding that few other people have! However, obtuseness aside, I don't think any degree will do you any harm.

It is very difficult to predict the future, and particularly in this marketplace. Despite the cyclical economic conditions, there have been regulatory changes over the last 5 years or so that have changed some of the fundamentals of this business.

At the ab-initio end of the industry, competition for airline placements has always been severely over-subscibed and extremely limited. In recent years there has been a marked growth in what are often termed "pay to fly" schemes, and if you use that term to encompass, airline cadet schemes, self employment, and buy experience programmes, you will see that there been a significant change in the position and with it a significant change in the terms and conditions inherent in that role.

Any upturn in the cyclical market is likely to bring with it an increase in demand for experience (where that is the requirement,) and an expansion in this "pay to fly" industry (where experience is not the requirement.) Unfortunetaly for many of the "250 hour hopefulls" out there, I think there is going to be some serious disappointment in store unless they are prepared to enter into one of these revenue schemes., with the attendant lack of security and uncertainty inherent with them.

On top of this there is the real prosepct of an upward revision in the experience (hours) base necessary for airline flying. In the USA this is now going through the legislature, and although there are no similar proposals this side of the Atlantic at the moment, it is not difficult to conceive of triggers that would bring about similar changes.

Those are but two of many cautionary points. On the other hand you need to be in the game to stand any chance of winning, and to that end it can only ever be an educated guess coupled with a significant degree of luck as to when is the right time to participate. As these cycles go (and they are not always cycles, but sometimes short lived peaks and troughs,) it is fairly rare that they are not spread out over a number of years. In other words it has been common for a gradual increase in growth. On that historical basis it is extremely unlikely that any economic fuelled growth is going to be around only for Winter 2011 and terminate suddenly in the Spring. Likewise any growth is unlikely to make "250 hour" pilots a rare and sought after commodity, other than as customers for goods and services.

My advice would be that if you are in education and there is a part of that education process that results in something "(I) would really love to do" then I would say, do it! The chances are that this is something that is a once in a lifetime opportunity. If circumstances change, then I am guessing you can always change your mind and re-plan.

Your age is a really a non-issue at this point. It is certainly more difficult to embark on this career the older you become, but not impossible. I would group most people in the 18-30 age group as one entity for the purpose of ab-initio training. I think you will find that it is, by and large, the real world consenus as well, with some degree of flexibility. A graduate of 26 is not going to be at any practical age disadvantage than an undergraduate or school leaver younger than that. Indeed the higher education is likely to be an advantage and in any case will not be, by virtue of the extra few years, a disadvantage. Bearing in mind my previous comments on the "pay to fly" scenarios, in those cases and most others where you are being sold a product or service, the priority is likely to be the colour of your money.

My advice, which is only my opinion, is to go with your gut feeling. Take the opportunities as they arise, but certainly consider those that are only likely to be once in a lifetime. Employment (whatever it is) is going to take up a big part of your life, so give weight to education and to those associated opportunities that you can still easily do while you are still young.

[eikido]

It is always a pleasure reading your posts Bealzebub, thank you.

I haven't checked this forum for over a year.
I was mainly reading the doomsday thread "the downturn is upon us" and i'm back now to check how the forth cast is.

What do you guys think of the near future?

WWW usually also write good posts, what does he think about the near future?

Are there any signs of an upturn coming soon for commercial pilots?

[punk666]

Training during a recession is a good idea so when the upturn is upon us you will have the tickets needed so to speak.

Look at other trades for example who dont train during a down turn because there are no jobs after, but when there is an upturn no one is qualified so then the jobs go to expats.

Why be behind when you can be in the front of the que when things get good?

Ok training in a recession can hit home money wise and it is a big risk if your on a tight budget, but if money isnt an issue then I personally think go ahead with it.

We know (from experience) that the economy goes up and down in cycles 5-7 years and it usually takes about the same time to recover. Pilot training can take 2-5 years depending on your current circumstances. So training during a recession and managing your training to end when things are starting to look better is alot better than starting to train when its booming.

I personally found that out when I started training in 2007 that people were getting hired but the recession was starting to hit us and now I have been struggling to get work inside/outside of aviation but luckily I got a job offer in the far east.

[gandhini]

NICE POST!!!!Thanks a lot for such a good information......:ok:

[martin1001]

Thanks for a great post Bealzebub

But ... Oh no thats me stuffed then. I've always wanted to fly just never had the money.
Now at 42 i've the money and it seems im just too old.

Having said that the nice chaps at the flight schools are keen as mustard still ... "you've no worries ... of course your not too old!" etc.

I would still love to have a go as you say "got to be in it ... " but the cost of training, say 50K, type rating 30K and pay to fly schemes seem crazy.

Seems the best things in life aren't free.

Am I too OLD!? An Old bugger to be cast onto the tarmac and not allowed to join in :sad:

Any advice is appreciated

[speedrestriction]

Paperplanes89,

Start thinking of your finances now. You are in a really good position to start planning for what can be a very expensive entry into a career.

sr

[Paperplanes89]

Thanks guys for some really useful replies, much appreciated. :)