BLF

[junebuga319]

Does anyone know where I can find breakeven load factor numbers for airines?

[Whispering Giant]

I very much doubt you'll find that information published anywhere as it means competitors would be able to undercut on price in order to attract more customer's.
I think you'll find that this is a very closly guarded commercial department secret...

brgds

W.G

[TartinTon]

....plus there is no single break-even load factor. There would be a range of them depending on what the yields were.

[junebuga319]

I know it can be put together using average fares, route length, and CASM and I thought RITA had it in their database somewhere.

[Cyrano]

I know it can be put together using average fares, route length, and CASM and I thought RITA had it in their database somewhere.

Well, if you make the simplifying assumption that passenger-variable cost = 0, then

revenue per seat mile = (average fare / route length) * load factor

but for breakeven, cost per seat mile = revenue per seat mile

therefore

breakeven load factor = CASM / (average fare / route length)


You can probably find enough data either in airline annual reports or in US DOT filings (if it's US airlines you're interested in) to calculate breakeven load factor by airline on an aggregate (total-network) basis. I believe that US stats may include average-fare data by route. If that's the case, and if you generalise an airline's network CASM to a specific route (admittedly a very dangerous assumption) you might get a very rough idea of the BE LF for that route.

C.

[junebuga319]

I was hoping to find a source that had already done that bit of work.

[Cyrano]

..no, really, no need to thank me, you're welcome. :hmm:

Good luck finding your source.

[boredcounter]

How you doing mate, still ticking over in this beloved world of aviation ;-) ?

Hows about the other (very variable at the mo) belly freight...................

Hope you are keeping well fella,

Bored.


PS, Dont some people just seem to want spoon feeding!

[junebuga319]

I just got this reply from airline financials:

Thanks for your comment.

For a couple of reasons, I I don't calculate BLF's.
1. Cargo and other revenues have a wide variance from airline-to-airline. For any kind of validity, BLF has to reconcile that revenue with passenger revenue.
2. More important is the significant increase in ancillary fees. Some airlines are accounting for these fees in "passenger" revenue and some airlines are using "other" revenue (range of fees is from ~8-30% of operating revenue).

The above being noted: Some airlines do show BLF's in their 10Q & K reports. You can also use my interactive (Excel) models for each airline and make an adjustment to RPM's which will recalculate all of the applicable line items including LF, Net and Operating income etc. to arrive at something close to BLF.

Its looking like the BLF number is a very loose number and can be massaged quite a bit depending on what you put into it.

Thanks to those who responded!!!!