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View Full Version : So, Let's open a can of worms....or at least speculation (ME Airlines future musings)


CAVnotOK
24th Jun 2010, 17:51
So Guys and Girls,

With what seems like another era of unprecedented expansion ahead of us in the Middle East it seems like the right time to get views/opinions on how the Airlines (EK,EY,QR, etc) will ALL manage their respective plans to expand?

It seems quite possible there will be an intriguing "battle" between the airlines, and extremely interesting for those already in the ME, as well as those who are considering moving here.

I for one cannot believe they will all succeed, and sooner rather than later one of the "Big" players are going to have to "make a move" which will ensure their expansion continues the way they have planned.

EK for one has targeted recruitment of 500-700 in the next 18 months. Given the problems they are facing in just filling courses month to month seems that sooner or later there are 2 choices. The first of course is the hiring of DEC's, and the other will be to make the Package so much more attractive that qualified candidates will be tripping over each other in order to get there.

Your guess is as good as mine as to how many would leave EK if DEC recruitment is started again, and if the package is "jacked up" to meet the recruitment target the problem now remains that the whole world knows what EK will do once they have recruited all that they need.

There also seems to be a "buzz" on the street as to Qatar announcing a massive aircraft order/purchase at the Farnborough Airshow in July. If the rumour turns out to be true, how will QR and EK both achieve their recruitment objectives? Will QR be the first in the region to offer Basings/ or off Base living, and if so what effects will it have on the expansion of both EK and EY?

If EY continue to try and "tighten the screws", as they have done recently they might well find themselves completely out of the equation.

After all, this is a network based on here say, and what ifs, so let's hear what you think??

Cav.

kotakota
24th Jun 2010, 18:13
I reckon the Gulf carriers will lower their requirements way before jacking up their T&Cs . I have been quite surprised by the surprisingly poor RT work by the odd EK crew recently , a sign of things to come ?

ruserious
24th Jun 2010, 18:29
I reckon the Gulf carriers will lower their requirements way before jacking up their T&Cs . I have been quite surprised by the surprisingly poor RT work by the odd EK crew recently , a sign of things to come ?

Yes and Yes

OrryFace
24th Jun 2010, 18:48
From a commercial perspective, and former employee of one of the aforementioned, here is my take:

The three main players have all got an ace in the hole -

EK - strongest stable commercial management, most professionally managed and despite all the moans and whinges on this site, they are the one I would put my money on to still be around in 30 years time. Best network, and they know how to run an airline (really!)

EY - $ $ $ $ $. Deep pockets and political will to keep going despite commercial reality

QR - Likewise. A small country sitting atop the world's largest exporting natural gas field. This airline could keep going for 50 years. What's stopping it leap frogging the other two is only one thing, but one day he will not be there. Impossible to grow and sustain any type of company without a stable senior and operational workforce.

As for all the rest, they will flounder or disappear. Exception could be Oman if they are sensible enough to contain themselves as a niche regional carrier.

OF

global707
25th Jun 2010, 07:47
It'll be interesting when the US carriers start hiring again and taking back furloughed guys. That could start to make a significant dent in the number of drivers that all the incumbants have. Therefore T&C's have to get better to attract more to come here or make those already here stay. With cras decisions like the EY housing policy etc going on, some the airlines don't help themselves

Cheers

Wiley
25th Jun 2010, 08:08
My prediction? If the US carriers start re-hiring in even moderate numbers, even if the T&Cs in the Middle East carriers were to improve quite a lot, the Americans will leave in droves.

My prediction has two major tripping points.

(1) That's a huge 'if' at the beginning of my last sentence and, given the current situation in the U.S., if an observer was being realistic, he'd say my premise is highly unlikely for quite some years to come. And

(2) As kotakota said before me, I don't think any of the Middle East carriers will improve T&Cs before trying the lower experience/lower standard of recruits route first. My reason for saying this is that I think senior management have begun to believe their own propaganda - that flying an aeroplane is easy and anyone can do it as long as there's a rule to cover every eventuality. I fear they'll only be convinced this might not be so after they all look - both figuratively and literally - into a smoking hole containing very little pieces of aluminium and possibly a tail with their company logo on it.

kingpost
25th Jun 2010, 12:00
Despite the moaning I don't think the Yanks will go home. The reason being is that aviation in the US is so unstable, why leave a ME carrier where you would be assured of a job or go back home to be retrenched in 5 years time and earn a real crap salary.

Many of the RJ boys will stick around to try and get their command on some "heavy metal" and once they have over a 1000 hrs PIC they'll go and work for an airline that will allow them to commute, i.e. Korean, and live in the US

nolimitholdem
25th Jun 2010, 13:44
Despite the moaning I don't think the Yanks will go home. The reason being is that aviation in the US is so unstable, why leave a ME carrier where you would be assured of a job or go back home to be retrenched in 5 years time and earn a real crap salary.


Respectfully, disagree. It isn't just a question about stability/instability, it's a whole raft of factors. That all boil down essentially, to: employment instability in the First World, to job security (which in itself is a bit of a mirage) in the Third World.

Many of the RJ boys will stick around to try and get their command on some "heavy metal" and once they have over a 1000 hrs PIC they'll go and work for an airline that will allow them to commute, i.e. Korean, and live in the US

I'm sure you're correct in a few cases of BJE-types (*Big Jet Envy, ie the A380 FO who wouldn't admit he formerly flew an RJ until pressed). But for the most part that would be piss-poor risk management and most guys realize it:

-moving goalposts for command
-uncertain upgrade times due other factors (fleet plans, company whims, EGT's interviews, etc)

So years in the Pit in a "secure" job in the HOPES that maybe Korean or the like will be hiring by the time an aspirant meets the arbitrarily-changing upgrade prerequisites. And Korean (if hiring) calls them, and they are successful in the interview.

I personally think that if US hiring rebounds even slightly we'll all hear a lot fewer US accents on the radio, pronto...nothing like working for Emirates to help one to lower one's expectations!

:}

cf680c2b
25th Jun 2010, 14:29
The US airline industry will become more stable and hiring will commence (barring any unforeseen catastrophy) for the following reasons:

- Airline mergers will diminish competition allowing for higher prices, hence better profitability.

- The age 65 factor will work itself out through the system in the next couple of years with lots of guys saying bye bye.

- Baby boomers retiring in droves within the next decade.

This excludes any growth that may occur (which is unlikely).

my 2 pennies

Patty747400
25th Jun 2010, 15:47
"as to how many would leave EK if DEC recruitment is started again"

So why do you think anyone would leave? If EK upgrades 150 a year and gets 10-20 DEC:s (they can't get more, I promise you) it would have a very marginal effect on the time for upgrade. And, if you have waited three years in EK, would you leave just "to make a point" (that no one would care about) for another carrier where it will take you another 10 years?

DEC:s will not create cheers but I doubt people will leave because of it. DEC:s or not, there's simply no better options than EK if you're looking for a widebody command and the FO:s know this.

Andu
26th Jun 2010, 01:11
IMHO, if there are jobs in the US, all but a very few of the Americans will go home. EK management should factor that in to their planning.