ethiopian airlines aircraft down near Beirut

[wkw198]

BBC reporting at 0211 UK time.

if so would have been ET409. 737-800 series according to site of Addis Ababa airport.

lebanese national news agency now confirming... (nna-leb.gov.lb)

[6000PIC]

Reuters says 85 pob , crashed into the sea shortly after takeoff.

[Bonge]

A little dramatic as usual but a bit more info than the Beeb for now

Ethiopian Airlines Plane Crashes Into Mediterranean Sea After Taking Off From Beirut | Home | Sky News (http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Ethiopian-Airlines-Plane-Crashes-Into-Mediterranean-Sea-After-Taking-Off-From-Beirut/Article/201001415534864?lpos=Home_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15534864_Ethiopian_Airlines_Plane_Crashes_Into_M editerranean_Sea_After_Taking_Off_From_Beirut)

[kotakota]

If , as the 'reports' say that it crashed 30 / 45 minutes after departure ( take your pick ) , then it would not have been in Lebanese airspace , more likely Larnaca or Cairo FIR , but then nobody would have seen 'flames' at 0330 local . I think more likely a few minutes at most after departure .

[SummerLightning]

BBC now reporting crash happened 'some five minutes after take off'. Wreckage apparently found on beach, 'major rescue operation taking place'.

[BreezyDC]

2010/01/25 03:00 UTC

The observation is:
OLBA 250300Z 06004KT 030V090 5000 VCTS RA FEW020CB BKN026 10/06 Q1014 NOSIG

[IBMN]

BEIRUT, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Rescue workers have located the crash site of an Ethiopian Airlines plane that went down just off the Lebanese coast on Monday, Lebanon's Transport Minister Ghazi al-Aridi said.
"(The crash) site has been identified three-and-a-half km (two miles) west of the (coastal) village of Na'ameh," Aridi told reporters at Beirut international airport.
He said search and rescue operations were underway but refused to give any further details. He also said it was too early to say what caused the crash but confirmed the plane took off from Beirut international airport in stormy weather. Aridi said an investigation into the cause was underway.

[T-21]

Thundery weather in the area maybe a contributory factor.

[DocSullivan]

Ethiopian Airlines has issued a first press release confirming the accident, and specifying the nationalities of the eight crew members and 82 pax on board:

Ethiopian | Press Releases (http://www.ethiopianairlines.com/en/news/default.aspx)

[18left]

BBC reporting police not suspecting foul play,but weather.

[vapilot2004]

Short of a million-to-one lightning strike causing a fire as reported, little else comes to my mind when a modern jet transport burns, then crashes rather than the other way round.

I may have been influenced by pictures of a certain someone in the news lately and the point of departure of that Ethiopian flight.

edit: initial reports, now amended, said that the aircraft was in flames as it went down. Now Sky News among others have changed their tunes.

I stand corrected until further information - accuracy improved - arrives.

[bearfoil]

BBC reporting Police suspect the weather. Right then, closed.

[Old King Coal]

Well it's certainly an interesting press release from Ethiopian.

It starts with 3 sentences of facts on what's known thus far about the incident (which is reasonable enough).

But it is followed by 5 sentences about how many destinations Ethiopian Airlines serves, how dependable it is (irony is abviously not their strong point), plus how many awards it has won (all be they the self-serving type awards from the 'aviation awards industry', which is a whole industry unto itself! ).

Imho, this is hardly the time for them to be banging their corporate drum. :suspect:

[threemiles]

Crash site as described by police is just 2 NM from departure end of runway. Reminds me of Kenya 737-800 Douala.

[QCM1]

Ethiopian Airlines website quote...

"ET-409 Incident - 25 January, 2010 :ugh:

Ethiopian flight ET-409 scheduled to operate from Beirut to Addis Ababa on January 25th lost contact with the Lebanese air controllers shortly after take off. The flight departed at 02:35 Lebanese time from Beirut International Airport.
Flight ET-409 carries 82 passenger plus 8 Ethiopian Crew members. Out of the total passengers 23 are Ethiopian, 51 Lebanese, 1 Turkish, 1 French, 2 British, 1 Russian, 1 Canadian, 1 Syrian, 1 Iraqi nationals.
A team is already working on gathering all pertinent information. An investigative team has already been dispatched to the scene and we will release further information as further updates are received."


So as they say,this is only an incident,no need to worry...:suspect::suspect:

[747JJ]

Without coming into any conclutions, reasons behind the crash can be various. However fot the numpties, anoraks, alarmist and conspiracy theorist's I've got the following: In many accidents, perhaps most, witnesses report the aircraft being on fire and hearing large explosion before the aircraft reached the surface.

To be fair, the political situation in Lebanon is sensitive to say the least. The PAX manifest, should it contain political players or unlikely PAX, could provide some clue to the possibility of foul play/ illegal interference with the flight. Ethiopian Airlines would be somewhat strange target for the groups targeting West, but Somali militants would certainly have a motive after Ethiopian military action in that country.

As is said, the weather conditions have been bad. It does not take a rocket scientist to understand that a direct lightning strike is not needed to destroy an aircraft.

Regardless, I am sad to hear about the latest loss of life. I've used Ethiopian and I've found their pilots well trained and Ethiopian one of the better Airlines to fly to Africa with a good safety record even by European standards.

[Another Number]

First thought same, threemiles.

As far as "numpties" speculating ... its good to see the better press agencies giving us pertinent background info like:

It comes just one month after a Panamian-flagged ship transporting livestock capsized in similar weather and sank off the coast of northern Lebanon with about 80 sailors on board.
The majority of the sailors were rescued but 26 were unaccounted for and presumed dead.
- AFP

:ugh:

[Lancman]

Migrating birds?

[UV]

Well it's certainly an interesting press release from Ethiopian.

It starts with 3 sentences of facts on what's known thus far about the incident (which is reasonable enough).

But it is followed by 5 sentences about how many destinations Ethiopian Airlines serves, how dependable it is (irony is abviously not their strong point), plus how many awards it has won (all be they the self-serving type awards from the 'aviation awards industry', which is a whole industry unto itself! ).

Imho, this is hardly the time for them to be banging their corporate drum.

Not to mention a single word of regret or condolence...
UV

[Mark in CA]

That's what we call boilerplate at the end of the press release. Most companies have these kinds of self-promoting sections they automatically stick on to the end of every press release. But in this case the juxtaposition with the statement above the boilerplate on the incident creates a rather tasteless document. At the very least, they need a better PR agency.

[blueirishPDX]

It's being reported that per BEY ATC, the flight made it to ~8000ft in something like 3 minutes after takeoff in heavy rain, before crashing about 5km off the coast of Beirut.

[parabellum]

I have worked with Etheopian pilots and they were very good.

[4Greens]

Eyewitnesses regularly report fire and then the crash. This is a normal human factors issue. The speed of light is of a much greater magnitude than sound. You see the flash and then hear the bang. The brain just uses that info to come to a conclusion that the aircraft was on fire before it hit.

[StopStart]

Flown with Ethiopian a couple of times and would rate them much higher than a lot of the airborne dross knocking round Europe. Their cabin crew could certainly teach most of the global flag carriers a thing or two about service & pride in their companies. :hmm:

Sad day :(

[kotakota]

I will be travelling with Ethiopian on my hols in September , best way to get to Mombasa from the Gulf , and possibly in May also to Lusaka . Never a doubt in my mind , just as I never worry about flying with other carriers who have had the odd tragedy . Their history is very good , they continue to buy new aircraft , standards are high . One swallow does not a summer make.

[ManaAdaSystem]

It's not unusual with bad wx and CB activity around BEY at this time of the year, but to drop out of the sky from 8000ft? Most CB accidents happen at fairly low altitude, but thats not to say you can't loose control if you enter a CB at any altitude.
Provided it's switched on, the NG has got a good radar, so there should not be a problem avoiding bad wx.

[MATaxi]

Like ThreeMiles earlier in the thread says , it has certain parallels with Douala in plane type , weather and time of incident occuring within the flight. Lets hope answers are found.

[mustafagander]

BBC news (in London) right now says wreckage found, bodies recovered and no survivors yet.

Lebanese authorities report "heavy storms" when B738 departed.

Sad business when any aircraft crashes.

[Lamyna Flo]

From The Times (UK): "Michel Sleiman, the Lebanese President, said that authorities had ruled out terrorism or sabotage as the cause of the crash."

That was quick.

[badgerh]

I live in Addis and my wife, particularly, and I are regular and happy users of Ethiopian. They seem to concentrate their efforts on safety and good service. Some departments are a shambles and it does not surprise me to see a press release with "inapropriate" boiler plate on it.

My sister was also flying on Ethiopian when this incident occured. Big fear this morning but all is well - she is safely on her way to Uganda after a lay over in Addis.

[747JJ]

I fail to see where displayed such arrogance in my previous post. I commented on the conspiracy theorists posts on the first page and and obviously ruffled someones feathers.

Fact 1: EU has standards that airlines need to uphold to be able to operate. Most African countries do not have these standards or these are rampantly disregarded. Ethiopia again does have standards fully comparable to EU and enforces these standards. With the latest accident they have 3 fatal accidents including the Comores B767 ditching due to hijacking. So in essence they have a very decent safety record.

Fact:2 Ethiopian troops have been operating in Somalia and Eritrea on different times. For their reasons, valid or not, I don't care either way. Their Somalia operations do make them a potential target for the local militants and their associates. I am not suggesting terrorism as a cause of the accident

Fact 3: There was no information when I wrote my previous post nor is there now, to rule out any single cause for the accident nor is there any info to confirm a cause or causes. I will wait for an answer from the accident investigation.

The PPPPDS ( Professional Pilot PPrUne Disclaimer Statement)
As I said on my previous post and previous lines, I am not suggesting any cause or contributory factor or the involvement of any organisation or indivudual as a cause for the accident.

[matkat]

If it is indeed G-CEJP it bring's it closer to home for me as I accepted the A/C for FGS on it's delivery flight from Boeing.

[ExSp33db1rd]

Going by that last report of flames, it could well have been a bomb or shoot down.


Remember the comment by the satirical columnist, Roger Bacon, in Flight International many years ago ?

He declared that he was going to fly a pilotless aircraft full of explosive over the next Farnborough Airshow, and remotely detonate it, so that - for once - 50,000 spectators could DEFINITELY state that the aircraft exploded in flight and was on fire before hitting the ground.

[GS John]

JP did head to Ethiopia according to:

GINFO Search Results | Aircraft Register | Safety Regulation (http://www.caa.co.uk/application.aspx?catid=60&pagetype=65&appid=1&mode=detailnosummary&fullregmark=CEJP)

[oxide]

Will have to wait for more information to surface, but a stark reminder of KQ507 that was in a similar predicament. Never really knew what happened in that incident, but hopefully in this case things will be brought to light.

[PPRuNe Towers]

Departures from Beirut have an early handover to Lebanese FIR controllers - normally 2000 feet.

This has been a particularly bad winter for extensive lines of thunderstorms lying just off the coast at night. While not extending to anywhere near the altitudes of summer CB activity they have been extremely developed and very densely packed. More cores per unit of airspace if you like. Departures in these conditions can be very difficult as there is no single bit of convective activity you can expect to drift away in the next hour or hours.

Should reports filtering through from Beirut ATCC remain consistent regarding extremely poor wx conditions I, for one, take notice. In my direct and recent experience the controllers there have available a weather radar feed I consider to be at least equal to that on board a 737 NG.

Several of the controllers are extremely adept at offering guidance in these conditions when asked.

Rob

[White Knight]

Except that this forum ain't for condolences and sympathies Mr V1 rotate.......

8000' in 3 mins - straight up into potential serious icing in Cbs and with that rate of climb maybe the icing potential wasn't fully thought through with regards to use of EAI. Possibly a contributing factor? Can get pretty nasty over the eastern Med at this time of year..

[Carjockey]

"Marla Sanchez Pietton, the wife of the French ambassador to Lebanon, was one of the passengers on board Flight 409 when it crashed".

Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes after takeoff from Beirut - Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7001194.ece)

[Old King Coal]

Fwiw, I too concur with what PPRuNe Towers has said (above) about Cb activity just offshore at BEY (Orographic uplift?) and of the very able ground based Wx radar system they use.

My most recent flight to Beirut was 21st Jan during which we too had Cb's (plus a quite low freezing level on departure, with ice soon to form under the wiper blade and also on the wiper nut).

ATC were top notch on our arrival (giving us excellent vectors to avoid, i.e. before we had to ask for it) and likewise, pre-takeoff, giving us a clearance that would see us clear the Cb's on the departure track - top stuff!

As for the Cb's themselves, whilst they might not be the size of summer ones, they are not to be under estimated! :}

[AN2 Driver]

Hmm, seems to be a confusion going on about the registration. According to Aviation Herald it was ET-ANB not AMZ, supported by the statement of Ethiopian's CEO that the plane was built in 2002.

http://www.avherald.com/h?article=4264b8d5&opt=1

so any final confirmation on the airframe? Just for the record.

[champair79]

It's either AMZ (ex FlyGlobeSpan) or ANB (which was ex-Ryanair EI-CSW). Most of the sources I've seen suggest ANB. I haven't seen any other website reporting it's ANA so we can rule that aircraft out presumably.

Either way its too early to be speculating. The black boxes should be found quickly anyway and then the truth of the accident should emerge.

[Nimer767]

according to media ATC guy say the pilot asked for course deviation to the right to avoid thunderstorms ATC report the last altitude reported was aprox.. 9000ft

[Gulfstreamaviator]

The know the weather problems, they offer some awsome reroutes as and when requested.

Once when approaching from the East, we stayed high, FL510, and went almost to Cyprus, then returned and descended, (high rate), avoided the weather, then they permitted us to descent to 2000 ft, 25 miles out, on LOC.....
Great service, and great guys.

I am certain they would never vector anyone towards a known active cell.

On departure subject to incoming, the sky is yours, they want you off the shore line, and only limit is the exit level, other than that the sky is yours... (edit added)

glf

[Nimer767]

it was departure my friend ,

[White Knight]

He's just describing how helpful BEY are for WX avoidance - arrival or departure..

[top jock]

The aircraft was MSN29935 which is the ex Ryanair one, EI-CSW

[MD83FO]

never heard of a a/c climbing out of 8000 feet and falling because of a thunderstorm.
the rudder again?
engine fire?
speculating (it's not wx)

[Litebulbs]

SFAR 88 and Lightning?

[ManaAdaSystem]

I would think most NG's have been modified by now, and if not, there are procedures in place to deal with this specific problem.

Lightning has never been a part of that equation.

[vapilot2004]

737 rudder issues - any and all have been complied with since 2002 for aircraft using the Parker/Hannifin PCU

[Litebulbs]

I would suggest that lightning will always be part of the problem, the variable will be how big a part.

The following link gives some previous info.

http://www.caasd.org/atsrac/FAA_PI-Engineer_Workshop/2002/SFAR-88-Related-Operating-Rules-and-Special-lMaintenance-Requirements.pdf

I do not know the mod state of the aircraft in question, but even a full inerting system and CDCCL procedures in place, does not completely eliminate all risk.

[norodnik]

Dark, bad weather.....

As per Gulf Air, it's easy to lose situational awareness and dive into an empty void.

Would not be surprised to see a severe turbulent episode and/or wind shear followed by the above and with little height to recover it's all over in a matter of seconds.

[G-BHEN]

Can't find a video online at the moment but they have just shown CCTV footage of the crash on 5 News. You see the aircraft climbing out of the top of the frame, followed shortly after by a big flash then a smaller flash.

Can't find this anywhere online yet.

[kenparry]

Speculation, speculation, speculation. Come on guys, you are not accident investigators, you have no idea what happened, just leave it.

[peter we]

"Speculation, speculation, speculation. Come on guys, you are not accident investigators, you have no idea what happened, just leave it."

You are correct but, this is a Rumour forum.

[White Knight]

You're right Peter we - always one isn't there:rolleyes: May not be accident investigators but a lot of pro pilots on this forum kenny and a lot of 737 guys who are probably fairly interested in what went wrong:uhoh:

[oleczek]

Can't find a video online at the moment but they have just shown CCTV footage of the crash on 5 News. You see the aircraft climbing out of the top of the frame, followed shortly after by a big flash then a smaller flash.

Can't find this anywhere online yet.
This one ?

FZ73y0sxCfs

[polarus]

Are You Kidding ... check the WX report at time of accident. Standard WX for Beirut. NO severe WX. Do Not speculate!

[Aviaservice]

post has been deleted

[pmat]

Rumour has it that KQ507 was caused by pilot disorientation. The same thing may have occur here, too preoccupied avoiding the weather in the vicinity of the airport and loss of aircraft control.

[forget]

I can't see what the video's supposed to show. The flashes on the climb look like anti collision beacons to me.

Agree with both. The last flash could easily be landing lights from a taxiing aircraft sweeping past the camera. I'd say the video has zero to do with the downed aircraft.

[fantom]

For the first time, I agree with forget.

They are strobe flashes but was that a lightning flash as well?

[Avman]

I rather think that the two flashes as the a/c climbs out are the strobes.

[theredbarron]

Anti-collision light was my first impression and I still believe that's probably what we are seeing, despite the first two flashes not being followed at exactly the same time interval by a third which should have occurred just before the aircraft exited the frame.

[Ace Springbok]

A wild theory maybe, but is it probable that a lightning strike with an unfortunate case of small fuel leak?

A former colleague had a suspected tiny fuel leak ( about 200-300lbs per hour ) and he told me that he refused company orders for him to divert back to home base and some nearer airports because there were lightning storms all over those places. He even decided to avoid clouds like plague as they might have electrical discharges that could ignite the fuel from a small atomising fuel leak.

[hetfield]

@ace

I'm NOT a scientist, but I think that's highly remote.

What burns/explodes is not the fuel, , it's the fueel/air (gas) mixture.

So if you have a small fuel leak AND lightning happens, eventually you will have a torch like flame but no explosion inside the tank.

My 5 pence

[protectthehornet]

saw the video in question on local tv.

obvious strobe lights during climbout...it seemed that visibility was good

as the plane left the frame of the camera, a few seconds later a huge flash of light...thought to be the plane.

I would not rule out an explosion.

[Piltdown Man]

I've not seen an event which has pulled generated so much floating brown stuff from so many people so quickly. NDT inspections mishandled, lightning, fuel leak and lightning, company orders, bird strike, disorientation, windshear - the only things missing so far are little green men from Mars. Oh, and what really happened! I'm not even going to try and give it a go. Please, give it a rest.

And Brian, most pilots like me are wimps, we don't take off into thunderstorms. We can see them just like our friends in ATC and we either wait or route around them.

PM

[Litebulbs]

Piltdown Man,

Thanks for that. I will use it to get out of my next SFAR 88 CDCCL training later this year. I can go back to my old understanding of fuel vapour and ignition sources; don't fly over Navy boats on manoeuvres.

[Romeo E.T.]

regarding the video and the reports that the aircraft had reached 9000ft, at a normal rate of climb on the B738, then any vizible explosion would have only occured around 2 to 3 minutes later, not a mere seconds as depicted in the video.

[Norman Stanley Fletcher]

At this stage nobody knows anything. Conjecture is just foolish talk and causes enormous pain to family members looking for answers. PPRuNe is exactly where they come looking for scraps of 'insight'. May I humbly suggest that at this point no one has any insight of any kind.

[Flight Safety]

My guess is the large flash occurring several seconds after the aircraft departed the camera view, is a lightning flash. So far it looks like the only useful info that might be gleaned from the video, if it's indeed the accident aircraft, is that the departure looked pretty normal.

[boristhemini]

Sky News just reported Lebanese Military Spokesperson saying pilot ignored ATC instructions? Bit quick to apportion blame.

[JamesT73J]

...pilot ignored ATC instructions?

Speculation, but weather avoidance, perhaps?

[Brookfield Abused]

If anyone is use to flying around severe weather it has to be the ET Pilots. After having been at their Flight Operations 2x in 2008/9 they showed no reasons to suspect any maint. or crew training issues on the 737 fleet.
Assuming this crew did not suffer sudden a loss of Comm. for various reasons- why does nobody not even send of a short brief one way broadcast of what is happening? "Maydayx3 / lightning strike loss of control / severe turb. loss of control / cargo fire & loss of pressurization / explosion on board / etc."?
Maybe we Pilots never assume that these situations will lead to such an event? A short message or burst of info that would have been picked up on either Dep. of 121.5 and avail. for immediate scrutiny. Now some of you will say the crew workload was too high, but then again on the CVR I would still expect to hopefully hear "Brace Brace Ditching" or similar from the Cockpit. Makes a big difference then just a splash! As with AF447 and dozens of other crashes this short info transmit would have helped the investigation a great deal?? Should this maybe become SOP?

[parabellum]

The little regular flashes are the strobes, the big flash doesn't relate to the aircraft does it?, it would have had to have done a 180 off the end of the runway to be back in that position and certainly not at 8 or 9 thousand feet. I've had a few lightening strikes, particularly in the far east, they will knock out systems but usually only temporarily, probably a spike protection or surge facility that they don't bother to tell us pilots about!

How deep is the Med. there? Hopefully the boxes will be recovered soon.


Should this maybe become SOP?


Brookfield, you can't create SOPs for the crew that has just suffered a catastrophic failure, yes, messages do get sent, but not necessarily related to the aircraft and it's status.

[protectthehornet]

AS to messages sent in the last seconds...

I recall a PSA (real PSA with the smile) after colliding with a C172 over San Diego (USA)...last transmission was: I love you mom.

Don't expect a pilot to correctly diagnose the cause of his plane crashing and transmit it.

Even Sully got his call sign wrong...

[Tango Uno]

Does anyone know for sure what brought down KQ507? Were both black boxes retrieved intact from the swamp? Or were they badly damaged and not very useful for providing conclusive evidence?

How deep is the Med. there? Hopefully the boxes will be recovered soon.

Shouldn't be more than 100m, at a guesstimate.

Aloha,
T-01

[11Fan]

I recall a PSA (real PSA with the smile) after colliding with a C172 over San Diego (USA)...last transmission was: I love you mom.


pth, That was the first one I remember as an adult. I went over to LGB and stood there looking at a PSA 727 wondering how something that tragic could happen.

PSA Flight 182 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PSA_Flight_182)

That was a bad day.

[yokebearer]

No matter what the end result of the investigation - I find the idea of pilot disorientation when hand flying very intriguing..

Pure speculation - but in the last few years we had first Kenyan into a storm in
Africa, then Gulf Air, then Yemenia in the Maldives, Turkish in Amsterdam, now this - all bad wx and possible AP disconnects/handflying/ stalls .... can it be that we are finally seeing the effects of years of depending on autopilots too much and struggling when they disconnect...?

[dicksorchard]

You guys may be interestd in this you tube video ...sea looks very rough .

1L9AZtd2EzU

[rottenray]

Norman writes:

At this stage nobody knows anything. Conjecture is just foolish talk and causes enormous pain to family members looking for answers. PPRuNe is exactly where they come looking for scraps of 'insight'. May I humbly suggest that at this point no one has any insight of any kind.Most assuredly true - nobody here has all the information.

(If we did, it would be PPfactN.org)

Suggesting that everyone here remain mute until the investigation is complete defeats the purpose of this forum thread, which has so far been conducted in a rather well-behaved manner.

I'd guess that the next of kin aren't reading this, as they have so much more to attend to.

Pilots frequent these forums, and any discussion they might share is certainly more important than your feelings or mine, as SLF.

As far as causing "enormous pain" to family members, trust me - it's the information vacuum which surrounds these types of accidents which causes that pain, not healthy discussion found in PPrune's forums.

Want to save families grief?

Work with those who report such accidents, and eliminate the chance that any major news org will publish "X" number of survivors before checking facts.

That's what really hurts - hearing "some" survivors turn into "no" survivors on newscasts.

Once you've tackled that, come back and align us into a better state of being - but certainly don't start here before you've fixed everything else.

This is a rumor network, this is a forum for discussion, don't build anything more into it than it should be.

[Graybeard]

Most lightninng strikes that hit aircraft, hit them when near the freezing level.

[ExSp33db1rd]

Ref post #68

An early 707 was hit by lightning over Maryland ( I think ? ) which ignited fuel - or vapour if you want to be pedantic - in a vent area near the wingtip. Later modified.

[Walder]

Looking at the video, I believe too it is strobelights. However it could also be an engine surge as well - but that should not bring a 737 down. The final flash looks to me like an other lightning - like comming from the depature direction.
Overall the video until now gives more gueses than facts.
If there had been any fire I would have expected some burning fuel at the surface, but until now there has been no evidence of a fire - unless I missed somthing???

Walder:p

[pmat]

Both black boxes from KQ 507 were retrieved. Cameroon government is to release the report but they are sitting on it as ATC allowed two other airliners Air France and Virgin Nigeria to takeoff without getting a confirmation report of KQ507 location. Remember the airspace was non radar. These black boxes should be easy to find.

[BackPacker]

I'd guess that the next of kin aren't reading this, as they have so much more to attend to.

I think you're wrong. With no positive confirmation (ie. a body) that their loved one is dead there's surprisingly little the next of kin can do other than sit around, talk, and weep. And try to find out what might have gone wrong.

There are several examples of crashes where the next of kin not just stumbled upon this little website of ours, but actually participated in the discussion as well.

[Desertia]

To put it back in perspective a bit:

The pilot of the aircraft which crashed off the coast of Lebanon failed to follow instructions to avoid a severe storm, according to the country's defence minister.

<irrelevant background deleted>

Defence minister Elias Murr said the plane failed to follow instructions from Beirut air traffic controllers, for reasons that were not immediately clear.

"A command tower recording shows the tower told the pilot to turn to avoid the storm, but the plane went in the opposite direction," he said.

"We do not know what happened or whether it was beyond the pilot's control."

[T-21]

With the Air France accident last year and now this accident with bad weather as a factor is it time all airlines reviewed their Standard Operating Procedures with regard to flight in and around thunderstorms ? Is too much faith in autopilots and weather radars,commercial pressure to fly hindering decision making when thunderstorms are forecast ?

[bereboot]

Even if I would add up an extra triptime of 15 minutes , with a small note 'WX avoidance' , there would not be a single word from my employer !
So commercial pressure / WX etc , I don't know , but not in many company's !!

[320DRIVER]

From GulfNews (http://gulfnews.com/news/region/lebanon/lebanon-minister-pilot-in-crash-flew-opposite-way-1.573907):


Lebanon minister: pilot in crash flew opposite wayTransportation Minister Ghazi Aridi told The Associated Press on Tuesday that the tower "asked him to correct, but then he did a very fast and strange turn."

Lebanese Red Cross workers move a body retrieved from the sea after an Ethiopian Airlines plane crashed in the Mediterranean on Monday.

Beirut: Lebanon's transportation minister says the pilot of an Ethiopian Airlines jet did not fly in the direction recommended by the Beirut control tower before the fatal crash. Transportation Minister Ghazi Aridi told The Associated Press on Tuesday that the tower "asked him to correct, but then he did a very fast and strange turn." He says it's not clear why that happened or whether it was beyond the pilot's control. Like most other airliners, the Boeing 737 also is equipped with its own onboard weather radar which the pilot may have used to avoid flying into the storm cells.

No survivors had been found more than 24 hours after the crash. Searchers are trying to find the plane's black box and flight data recorder.



Maybe vertigo induced by a non-instrument turn in dark, no-horizon night in order to avoid breaching Israeli airspace following weather avoidance?

Just a thought...

[rik Sound]

quote..

But taking off from Beirut in bad weather has always been an unsettling experience. The location of the airport, just south of the city, means that outbound airliners must fly out to sea immediately after leaving the ground. If they continued south, they would quickly be heading for the Israeli frontier. The usual take-off runway forces pilots to bank heavily to starboard and passengers can sea the ocean immediately below the right wing of the plane. In bad weather – and I write as a veteran Beirut airline passenger – the sight of massive waves and sea-spray under the starboard wing-tip is usually a little terrifying. It normally takes more than 10 minutes to rise above the turbulence and flight ET409 exploded when it was still in cloud, just five minutes after leaving the ground. Beirut has a first-class record in on-time takeoffs; the question must be asked if controllers allowed this to overcome any doubts about the weather. But planes had been taking off into the same storm and lightning for more than 12 hours before the disaster....
... The last crash at Beirut airport was more than 20 years ago when a Polish freight aircraft crashed in the hills to the south-east.

from Robert Fisk, The Independent
An explosion in the sky &ndash; and Beirut's worst fears came true - Middle East, World - The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/an-explosion-in-the-sky-ndash-and-beiruts-worst-fears-came-true-1878804.html)

[S.F.L.Y]

If they continued south, they would quickly be heading for the Israeli frontier.

This shouldn't be a problem since Israelis F15 are used to daily supersonic flights within the Lebanese airspace :E

[MATaxi]

I know Fisks column is not an official line but he clearly reports 34 bodies as being found. You would assume that bearing in mind the alledged timeframe of the incident and the poor weather , that most passengers would still be buckled into their seats when whatever befell them took place.

Were this to be a CFIW incident then , once again assuming , most bodies would still sadly be in the wreckage.

The fact that the Lebanese authorities may have found remains of over 1/3 of the passengers and crew on the waters surface makes me question whether an in-flight break-up or explosion did actually take place.

[HEATHROW DIRECTOR]

<<Beirut has a first-class record in on-time takeoffs; the question must be asked if controllers allowed this to overcome any doubts about the weather.>>

Not wholly sure what the writer meant, but it's the pilot who decides whether to take-off, not ATC. ATC can only issue a clearance based on traffic and one or two other factors. The weather at the time is not (usually) a consideration. I've seen many pilots refuse take-off into storms whilst others did.

[threemiles]

but then he did a very fast and strange turn."

Unusual turns

Flash 604
Kenya 507 http://www.pprune.org/african-aviation/334603-what-happened-kenya-507-a-2.html see last entry
Gulf 072
Armavia 967


YouTube - Flash Airlines Accident Animation (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCLD6bwGq1I)

[jammydonut]

Have we forgotten the 737 into the sea off Sharm El Sheik 5 years ago minutes after t/o

[The late XV105]

Have we forgotten the 737 into the sea off Sharm El Sheik 5 years ago minutes after t/o

Err, no, I don't think we have!

Unusual turns

Flash 604

[MD83FO]

are there many unexplained 737 falling out of the sky accidents??

[Flaperon777]

Saw the video.Seems to me like an engine surge,followed by another engine surge. Both of these could be due multiple bird bits(very common in rainy conditions and all the more dangerous since the pilot can never see them right untill the moment it is too late!). The bright explosive flash seen later on the video could well be either one of the damaged engines' blades disintegrating and either rupturing a fuel line or piercing a fuel tank(therby causing the explosion and the flash). The rest can be a little less imaginative. As it DID crash.
Alternatively,the 'flashes' were the aircraft strobes.
But it DID crash...
My 2 krunos...

[captplaystation]

Then again, more likely could be a lightning flash :hmm:

[Speed of Sound]

Seems to me like an engine surge,followed by another engine surge.......

...Alternatively,the 'flashes' were the aircraft strobes.


If this footage came from CCTV then surely there must also be other footage of similar aircraft on a similar heading in similar 'light' conditions, to compare the 'brightness' of anti-collision lights with the footage in question?

SoS

[BillS]

If this were a single strobe, by timing, there is a flash "missing" before the sequence of two as well as after.

[hetfield]

@captplaystation

Can't remember any fatal loss due to lightning strike. Do you?

[ribt4t]

Airliner loss due to lighting strike appears to be very rare :

Aviation Losses from Lightning Strikes - National Lightning Safety Institute (http://www.lightningsafety.com/nlsi_lls/avaition_losses.html)


I was actually on a DC10 a couple of years ago that was struck by lightning - nothing unusual appeared to happen from a SLF point of view.

[S.F.L.Y]

Have you ever seen the damages caused by lightning strikes? It can be bad enough to take you down.

[Kita]

lots of good comments here & also lots of speculation....so Ill add to the list. Good aircraft flew into thunderstorm after T/O and overwhelmed the crew is my take on it so far...there is always a chain of events leading to a tragic end!!

[ECAM Status]

I fly on the area quite often. I was also flying there last night. There is a NOTAM of UNIFIL exercises in the area between Cyprus and Lebanon in areas called BARBARA 1 and BARBARA 2 for the last few weeks. I believe there were exercises going on that night as well. You can find this NOTAM in the Nicosia FIR notams. How about a rocket flying loose tha night from all those ships that are in the area???? No surprise they were quick in attending the scene of the accident to help out. We've seen this scenario in the past.

[Speed of Sound]

If this were a single strobe, by timing, there is a flash "missing" before the sequence of two as well as after.

This could be caused by the aircraft passing a tower block, lamp-post or any other obstruction in the field of view of the CCTV.

That is why I suggested comparing the footage with other aircraft climbs from the same camera.

SoS

[hetfield]

"The jet turned north.........140°..."

:confused:

[captplaystation]

Hetfield,

Very rare indeed but reading & refreshing my memory of the Iranian Air Force 747 accident on the approach into Madrid on the link on post# 108 doesn't fill me full of confidence.
This aircraft, by coincidence was ex TWA & the sister ship of the ill fated TWA off Long Island which "appeared to suffer an in-flight explosion of the centre tank" caused by shorting fuel pumps or USN cock-up depending on the version you subscribe to.
The B738 incidentely is a lightning magnet & (not just my opinion but confirmed by "ginger-beers" ) seems to suffer a disproportianete number of strikes compared to other types (before winglets too, so not that)
Don't know if it is relation of wing-span to length / where the composite bits are located/ poor bonding ? really no idea, but it attracts lightning like no other type I have flown & is several scales worse than the 733/4/5 for instance.

Incidentally I wasn't suggesting that a lightning strike caused this, merely stating that what I saw, in duration & intensity, looked more like a lightning discharge than an explosion. Difficult to say anything with any degree of certainty concerning the poor quality of cctv anyhow.

Edited to say, having read the post above about the exercises :hmm: Itavia DC9 over the Med / Iran Air Airbus / TWA (maybe?)/ a TU154 not so many years ago ? indeed why not, but in that case we will wait 20 ? 30 ? or how many years ? for the truth.

[Graybeard]

Informative, CPS, thanks. Could it be that long thin wing in a 30 degree bank emulating a lightning rod?

Seems like the majority of strikes to most aircraft types occur wings level, and to the fuselage. I wonder how much study has been done of strikes to the wingips, especially with winglets?

GB

[S.F.L.Y]

I had two experiences with entry points on turboprop blade tips (which melted) and many exit points (small holes over the airframe or melted flap parts).

[threemiles]

Departure runway 21 calls for a right turn to the sea at 400', thence SID to Chekka (CAK) which is 030 track. This path crosses final rwy 16 at low altitude, so after 5000' ATC rightly tried to vector towards the West to avoid approaching traffic. Then they did an almost complete left two-seventy back to South of the airport, climbing to 9000 feet (4000 feet is 1 1/2 minutes). Continue on this path would have flown them directly into the mountains. EGPWS warning adding to confusion?
My speculative bet - autopilot disengagement went unnoticed when switching to heading mode - tried manual correction while spatially disorientated = Kenya + Flash

[TWOTBAGS]

Here is my experience with it, one strike on the winglet of a 1900 and it blew the crap out of the internal carbon fibre.

http://i194.photobucket.com/albums/z96/redlum5x5/DSC00072.jpg

Other strikes and issues follow, junked the PT6 because the core was magnetised... basically a not fun and very expensive day

http://i194.photobucket.com/albums/z96/redlum5x5/DSC00098.jpg


So an average stike of 30kA /500MJ is food for thought. It certainly opened my eyes :ok:

[Machaca]

KALDE 2D when headed South, no?


http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/OLBA-SID-KALDE.jpg

[parabellum]

"Pilots turns the wrong way, ignored ATC instructions"


Well, did they? Depending on the severity and location of a lightning strike it may disable some systems, usually temporarily, in my experience. In this case, if they were struck by lightening, they may have lost radio and not heard the instruction and radar and not seen the core of the CB, as it was an NG it may have taken out their flight instruments too.

All speculation but we mustn't be too quick to blame the crew. As the crash was at least five minutes after the take-off none of the flashes etc. at the airport are likely to be relevant.

[OldChinaHand]

Many years ago while flying a large turbo prop over Italy we were hit 3 times in quick succession by Lightning while trying to negotiate weather. This was coupled with severe icing. The compass system was damaged by the electric discharges and rendered useless/unreliable. We were about 30 mins from destination (Pisa) and Radar assisted us with position and Hdgs (utilising standby compass) to continue. Vectors and descent to a high cloudbreak and visual approach into Pisa. Once landed we also discovered a 5 square inch chunk had been blown from the RH elevator. Not a fun morning.

I am not saying Lightning downed Ethopian, just relating my experience of a what it can do. I have been hit by same many times since, but never saw this damage repeated.

[slamer.]

Back in post 112 there is mention of "other traffic" close by, wonder if some TCAS manoeuvering could be a factor here..?.... just a thought in light of the reports re not following ATC instuctions.

[threemiles]

Flight plan was via CAK, then Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia. Long way around east of Israel.

Other traffic was two approaches to runway 16, that's why vectored away from.

[Philflies]

Ryanair 'used Ethiopian crash jet in Dublin last year' - Local & National, News - Belfasttelegraph.co.uk (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/ryanair-used-ethiopian-crash-jet-in-dublin-last-year-14652992.html)

The journalists are really clutching at straws here, but thankfully MOL puts them straight at the end of the article.

[atakacs]

Any news about the CVR/FDR recovery ?

[Speed of Sound]

Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary said: “It's a bit like you selling your car and 11 months later the new person driving it has a crash. It had nothing to do with us.”


Did anyone say it was Mr O'Leary? :confused:

SoS

[Machaca]

Threemiles:
Flight plan was via CAK, then Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia. Long way around east of Israel.

Other traffic was two approaches to runway 16, that's why vectored away from.


BOD 1 then:


http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/OLBA-SID-BOD.jpg

[frequentflyer2]

'I fly on the area quite often. I was also flying there last night. There is a NOTAM of UNIFIL exercises in the area between Cyprus and Lebanon in areas called BARBARA 1 and BARBARA 2 for the last few weeks. I believe there were exercises going on that night as well. You can find this NOTAM in the Nicosia FIR notams. How about a rocket flying loose tha night from all those ships that are in the area???? No surprise they were quick in attending the scene of the accident to help out. We've seen this scenario in the past.'

Just say something like this did happen. Would the pilot have any warning a rocket or missile of some kind was accidently heading for the aircraft? Could the unexplained turn actually have been an attempt to avoid it? The plane is consistently being reported as being on fire before impact and there are also suggestions it broke up in the air. The injuries to the victims recovered from the sea so far are horrific. Wouldn't some of this point to at least the possibility of an explosion?

[Machaca]

Air Transport Intelligence reports (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/01/26/337637/ethiopian-737-failed-to-maintain-correct-heading-before.html):

Beirut centre discussed navigating towards the VOR beacon identified as CAK, which lies on the Lebanese coast north of Beirut. But he says that air traffic control needed to ensure separation between ET409 and two aircraft which were on approach to Beirut's runway 16 at the time.

In order to maintain separation, he says, ET409 was instructed to turn left onto a heading of 270° but the crew apparently failed to comply.

"Instead it turned left, further," says the source, adding that - as the heading wound down to 140° - controllers became alarmed that the aircraft was turning back towards land and high terrain.

Controllers tried ordering the aircraft to turn right, warning the crew of the mountainous area, but the source says that radar contact was lost with the jet shortly afterwards. It came down off the Lebanese coast south of Beirut.


That will get the inner ear fluid spinning!

http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/OLBA-SID-BODturn-1.jpg

[Doug E Style]

I flew over northern Lebanon a few hours before the crash occured. There was a SIGMET issued for the Beirut FIR advising of CBs and although it was only valid until 1500Z we (and indeed the aircraft just ahead of us) needed to take avoiding action over the Lebanese coast in the vicinity of the CAK VOR. I haven't read all the threads on here so haven't seen if anyone has mentioned which runway was in use for departures at Beirut but I can say that if you were lined up on runway 21 to depart via CAK, you could have an awful lot of weather behind you that the radar obviously won't pick up until you've made the turn to the north.
Just found the SIGMET:
OLBA SIGMET N01 VALID 241100/241500 TS OBS AND FCST SW OF OLBA FIR TOP CB ABV FL240 MOV NE 14KT INTSF

In any case, it's a terrible tragedy to all involved.

[threemiles]

BOD 1 then:

I understand the message from Flight Global that a direct CAK was negotiated soon after departure. This would cross the final Northwest of BOD. Therefore the controller may have been concerned about separation from ILS 16 traffic. Though a take away on heading 270 is quite rude, I feel.

I believe your red circle brings it to the point.

[snowfalcon2]

I believe your red circle brings it to the point.

More or less... but the plane came down much closer to the shore. The impact point (2 NM W Na'ameh) is on a line about 15 degrees to the right from the direction of rwy 21, i.e. the plane crossed its initial outbound track at some point. Flight path might resemble the "&" character :rolleyes:

Does not alter the conclusions anyway, I guess....

[Finn47]

60 bodies found so far, according to this:

Walta Information Center - Ethiopia: 60 confirmed dead in Ethiopian Airlines crash (http://www.waltainfo.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=18987&Itemid=45)

That could mean the hull broke up at some point, but no way to be certain, of course.

[S.F.L.Y]

That could mean the hull broke up at some point, but no way to be certain, of course.

Aircrafts usually break at some point when they impact the sea at high speed...

[samuelmj1]

Does his track not suggest he was turning back towards the field?

[lomapaseo]

Does his track not suggest he was turning back towards the field?

Aviate.....Navigate.....Communicate

The lack of a reported radio call suggests the crew was overwhelmed.

The red circle in a post above is interesting if only altitude loss was known.

Has any coments been said about altitude changes over time from radar returns?

[snowfalcon2]

Has any coments been said about altitude changes over time from radar returns?

Not literally, as far as I've seen, but...
From two different news posts in Flightglobal:
-------
Chamieh says that the jet climbed to 9,000ft before contact was lost.
"The aircraft was called several times but it did not respond," he says
-------
ET409 was instructed to turn left onto a heading of 270° but the crew apparently failed to comply. "Instead it turned left, further," says the source, adding that - as the heading wound down to 140° - controllers became alarmed that the aircraft was turning back towards land and high terrain.
Controllers tried ordering the aircraft to turn right, warning the crew of the mountainous area, but the source says that radar contact was lost with the jet shortly afterwards.
-------

One way to interpret the above is that the aircraft reached 9000 ft at the point when its was heading west, and everything still looked OK on the controller's screen. Then when it continued its left turn it would have descended - prompting the terrain warning from the controller.

There has been no mention of possible technical communication faults, so presumably the ATC radar data is good including altitude data, until contact was lost. But this is still speculation.

[downwindabeam]

If the red drawing is correct, one would think that they were trying to turn back to the airport!!!

They probably realized something went terribly wrong and were trying to make the airport again...

[Speed of Sound]

They probably realized something went terribly wrong and were trying to make the airport again...

Assuming they still had the ability to communicate you would have expected some attempt to inform ATC of their desire to do that and ask for a runway.

Even Sullenburger had time to do that in NYC and he was much lower and still very busy.

Whatever happened seems to have been both quick and unexpected.

SoS

[downwindabeam]

Maybe they tried. We dont know what their comm system status was at the time, and we also haven't heard tapes yet.

I think that it's more logical to err towards the notion that two competent pilots sat at the controls and did a "pilot act" rather than the opposite notion that they had no idea what they were doing.

Air france never communicated anything either. El-Al in AMS communicated very little. Aloha Air back in the 80's tried to communicate but came out very broken.

When structural damage occurs, sometimes time is limiting and communication very unreliable.

[MagnusP]

BBC reporting recorders found.

BBC News - Ethiopian crash jet flight recorders found off Lebanon (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8484215.stm)

[protectthehornet]

wondering:

is there a cycle of testing for electrical continuity of the airframe to ensure that a bolt of ligtning can pass from one point to an exit point without creating a spark gap which might trigger a fume explosion?

[repariit]

Hornet

C & D checks cover electrical bonding and static dissipaters.

[etrang]

[QUOTE]How about a rocket flying loose tha night from all those ships that are in the area???? No surprise they were quick in attending the scene of the accident to help out. We've seen this scenario in the past.'

Just say something like this did happen. Would the pilot have any warning a rocket or missile of some kind was accidently heading for the aircraft? C/QUOTE]

An El Al pilot would, yes. But on Ethiopian Airlines, no.

[Bridge Builder]

As I understand things:

- Black Boxs went to Canada for analysis.

- Canadians cannot reveal what they reveal, under ICAO rules, because Cameroon has not given ‘permission’.

- This means that they may (I emphasise may - I have no idea), be information of great relevance to 737-800 pilots contained in those black boxes.

- We won’t know until Cameroon, the world's leading aviation power and authority on civil aviation - gives its ‘permission’ to the Canadians to reveal all. :ugh:

[20driver]

Bridge Builder raises a good point. Letting national authorities control the release of the flight data is not the ideal situation. The Tunisian ATR ditching is a good case in point. Prosecutors want to put a spin on the CVR tapes that many pilots felt was dead wrong. Having the tapes to listen to made a big difference in that case. Canada will not even allow the release of CVR transcripts, let alone the recordings themselves.
I know this is a hot button item but at some level I think ICAO should insist that the raw data be available to a wider audience.

20driver

[None]

I know this is a hot button item but at some level I think ICAO should insist that the raw data be available to a wider audience

I wonder if they have an obligation to share the info with the aircraft manufacturer for flight safety purposes only?

[lomapaseo]

I wonder if they have an obligation to share the info with the aircraft manufacturer for flight safety purposes only?

It's commonly done when something needs to be fixed. Of course in many cases it's the pilot training that needs to be addressed at the operator level.

[repariit]

Is there any sourced report of the voice or data recorders actually being retrieved form the bottom? I see such reports of their pinger signals being received, but not of the boxes being raised to the surface and sent to Canada, or anywhere else for analysis.

[snowfalcon2]

The search still continues. It seems the exact location was not yet pinpointed on Thursday evening.

[Flight Safety]

Interesting article from Flight Global.

Pilot disorientation accidents have become a phenomenon (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/01/29/337743/pilot-disorientation-accidents-have-become-a-phenomenon.html)

This accident is discussed in the article.

[protectthehornet]

We spend such little time on basics of flight. Once you are flying for a big airline, we seem to forget the little things.

The transition from visual to instrument flight is tough...especially at night...especially over the sea.

I remember quite an article about losing engines in the mighty 757 and the high nose attitude in normal two engine climbing flight. The article had to remind pilots to lower the nose.

We must stay on instruments and be able to transition from visual to instruments as easily as canadian controllers switch between english and french.

We must practice such things, just like we must do physical exercise.

And remember, if you can't avoid thunderstorms, check out the AIM for good advice...including watching your instruments and turning on the cockpit lights to protect from lightning flash.

also, try to know a ''safe'' attitude and power setting...one that you can reliably go to when all else fails...most jets will survive a pitch of 10 degrees up and max power...level wings of course...at least below 20,000feet.

[vapilot2004]

Who is not going to fly the numbers particularly in scenarios such as most of these?

...save AF447, where apparently some of their more important numbers went missing, or worse, wobbly.

[Zimpilot1]

I have just flown to Addis Ababa on Ethiopian from Harare via Lusaka. The flight was delayed by 4 and a half hours. Conflicting reasons were given by Ethiopian and the pilots for the delay. There was however heavy CB activity in Harare though.

Despite the delay, the flight was exceptionally good and enjoyable.

[badgerh]

There have been inordinate delays on Ethiopian this week - not totally unusual but somewhat extreme. I have not found anyone that has been given a valid reason yet. My wife returns tomnight after a 3+ hour delay for a midnight departure on her way out. Will be interested to see if she gets the same again.

[assymetric]

Hey guys,
stop complaining about delays. After all they are one frame short.

[captplaystation]

And one crew :uhoh:


Poor guys, just like you and me.

Maybe someone sent them a "really wide ball" that evening, or maybe they just cocked it up, but they didn't go home, and all we know they did was go to work.

F----ng sad.

[repariit]

This appears to be the most current status:
Lebanon’s Transportation and Public Works Minister Ghazi al-Aridi said on Saturday that advanced submarines were on-route to Lebanon to aid in search operations of the Ethiopian Airlines flight ET409 crash.
“We did not expect to discover that 10 kilometers from the Lebanese shore, there are depths that go beyond 1300 meters.” Aridi said
During Friday’s cabinet meeting it was revealed that the company that owns Ocean Alert ( which identified the location of the black boxes ) will send Odyssey Explorer, which has the capability a deep diving ROV that will help in recovering the plane’s boxes from the bottom of the sea .

Ocean Alert is currently in the Beirut area, but Odyssey Explorer is in the English Channel doing 8.5 knots. You can follow its path while in areas where its AIS signal is received at this web site: Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=309814000&centerx=-2.995983&centery=50.18708&zoom=10&type_color=9). As of 31 Jan 2010 Odyssey Explorer is out of AIS contact with web site.

On 30 Jan 2010 the Odyssey Explorer was near Falmouth, UK, approximately 3,200 Nm from Beirut. Based on its speed of about eight knots, it will be mid February before it could arrive at the crash site.

[Pvt. Godfrey]

My sister Dolly tells me that within Lebanese aviation circles the track publicly provided and discussed here is expanded with rather more dynamic data.

It is suggested that the maximum altitude of around 9000 feet was reached during or following the mysterious turn to the left. There was a very rapid climb to that altitude from around 6500ft associated with a remarkable decrease in ground speed - from more than 250 knots down to less than 150.

[andrew_wallis]

would IMC, loss of instruments tempo due to ??? lightening strike, and then spacial disorientation be an explanation?
Quite a bit of direction change, with ? no visual horizon following departure.
The last post talks of a rapid ascent at declining airspeed, 6550 to 9000-ft, with 250kt to 150kt.

[protectthehornet]

a sudden increase in the rate of climb and a decrease in ground speed (one must also suppose a decrease in IAS)...could this be a sudden problem with the pitot/static system...

a massive stab trim runaway?

[repariit]

Deep water exploration vessel Ocean Alert is searching the track displayed here today:
http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?zoom=10&mmsi=667932000&centerx=35.38093&centery=33.74397 (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=309814000&centerx=-2.995983&centery=50.18708&zoom=10&type_color=9)

This is real time data so it will change as time goes on. As I am writing this Ocean Alert is running back and forth on a line parallel to the shore about three miles west of Damour at 4.5 knots. He is most likely towing sonar equipment.

[vapilot2004]

a massive stab trim runaway?


that would be hard to miss and easy to stop.

[mary meagher]

Pvt. Godfrey's sister Dolly mentions a possible rapid climb to 9,000' with con-comitant decrease in ground speed to less than 150 knots......

Strange things can happen in a cu-nimb, but wouldn't it be very unlikely for a jet to linger long enough to be so affected by updrafts?

[Jumbo744]

yes well spotted, Ocean Alert is the one towing the sonar equipment.

[Southernboy]

The above CU nim reference must have credibility. Windshear has done for others in the past.

[threemiles]

And 9000 feet should be high enough to recover in any case

[pkg.kit]

look at the path of the Ocean Alert
Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?zoom=10&mmsi=667932000&centerx=35.39497&centery=33.75848)

they narrowed the search and move very slowly, it looks like they have found something.

[beamender99]

they narrowed the search and move very slowly, it looks like they have found something.

Zooming in they seem to have three sites that they have concentrated on.

[repariit]

Over the past two days, Ocean Alert has covered about forty square miles, apparently towing sonar equipment. I think that they are mapping a debris field based on their steady slow speed. The western portion of their recent activity is about 33.7846n 035.2819e. By plugging these coordinates into Google Earth, you can see that the water depth there is about 4,200 feet. This appears to be the area that the US Navy and Ocean Alert read the FDR and CVR pingers. Most of the recent activity has been further east, closer to shore near Naame, centered on 33.7587n 035.3938e. The depths here is about 470 feet.

According to the Lebanon's Transportation Minister, Odyssey Explorer, a sister ship to Ocean Alert, will be heading to Beirut soon. It is currently in the UK, maybe Falmouth, about 3,200 miles away. At 8 knots it will be mid February to arrive if it gets underway now. This ship is equipped with two deep diving ROV's capable of doing archeological quality explorations of ancient shipwrecks. It has the ability to extract the boxes from the wreckage if they are still in their aft fuselage mounts.

The width of the apparent debris field indicates that ET409 broke up in the air. The time spent in the eastern portion of the search area indicates that there must be a larger portion of wreckage quite a distances from the CVR & FDR.

It is amazing to be able to witness this search from a laptop computer while in a hotel room on the opposite side of the planet.

If you follow these ships on the web, keep in mind that their tracks only show about a day's data. If you place the cursor on the little triangle symbols on the track, it displays the date, time, and position information.

[vapilot2004]

In flight breakup does not bode well for the anti-terrorist gang. :ouch:

[Spooky 2]

Not sure what that means? Can you expand a little.

[pkg.kit]

it could also disintegrate in the air by excessive speed, this is all just speculations, we have to wait for FDR and CVR, then we can continue our "PPRuNE investigation" :ugh:

[snowfalcon2]

Military sources have said that Ocean Alert is not receiving clear signals from the black boxes.

On the other hand there are reports of a robot submarine sent down to take pictures of the wreckage.

There are also reports of Ocean Alert having spotted "geometrical shapes" in a location farther north, 10 km from the coastline W of Beirut.

Sounds like a number of false positives occurring in the search.

For the speculation brigade I recommend the story of Partnair 394 at Partnair Flight 394 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partnair_Flight_394) , or for Norwegian speakers, at 1993/03 | sht (http://www.aibn.no/aviation/reports/1993-031) .

In short, the Convair broke up due to forged parts, and radar echoes from the first separating inspection hatches were registered several kms from the main part of the wreckage.

[BillS]

keep in mind that their tracks only show about a day's data.
But by adjusting the olddate in this format url:
olddate=1/27/2010 (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?zoom=12&oldmmsi=667932000&olddate=1/27/2010%2012:02:01%20PM)

you may find previous days :ok:

edit:
even easier:
Daily Vessel's Itineraries - AIS Marine Traffic (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/datasheet.aspx?datasource=ITINERARIES&MMSI=667932000)
gives daily history.

[parabellum]

Bear in mind that there will be an awful lot of junk on the bottom in the eastern Mediterranean, dating from WW2 and various conflicts since then, including arms carrying boats from Syria that didn't quite make it to Gaza etc.

[repariit]

Odyssey Explorer is now underway from Falmouth, UK. It was briefly in AIS range and appeared here: Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?oldmmsi=309814000&zoom=10&olddate=2/1/2010%207:44:00%20PM).

[Swiss Cheese]

The UK Telegraph website had an article on it at the weekend about the Families of pax and crew of KQ507 being left in the dark since May 2007 about the accident causes, no Coroners Inquests etc, and links between it and ET 109.

Common features are a 737-800, Night Departure, Weather, no Radio call, and high velocity impact with surface, ADs with the spoiler actuators etc.

Boeing were alleged to be pointing fingers at the KQ crew for mistakenly thinking they had engaged autopilot, but they would say that, wouldn't they?

How long will it take for the truth of ET109 to emerge?

[ettore]

BEIRUT: Remnants of the Ethiopian Airlines aircraft which crashed off the coast of Lebanon have been found in Syrian waters, the Transport and Public Works Minister said on Wednesday, even as storms disrupted the ongoing search for wreckage. Ghazi Aridi told reporters at his ministry office in Beirut that the piece of the wrecked Boeing 737-800 would be handed over to Lebanese authorities, after he was alerted by officials in Damascus.

The Daily Star - Politics - Wreckage from crashed plane found in Syrian waters (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=111434)

[Speed of Sound]

50 miles North of where it is assumed the bulk of the wreckage is?

Is this floating wreckage that has been moved by the currents or evidence that the aircraft came apart at some altitude?

I say floating wreckage, as I would doubt whether anyone would be searching the sea that far away from the 'official' search area.

SoS

[avlerx]

Ocean Alert left Beirut Port 7.05am and has gone South back to the same area it was searching before.

Edit:- Searching 1 - 2 miles of the coast.

[maDJam]

Al-Hayat newspaper reported on Friday that US vessel Odyssey Explorer will not arrive in Lebanon before next week to help in the search operations for last week’s crashed Ethiopian airliner wreckage and black box.

The daily added that the vessel will help the search teams expand their operations in the area between Naameh, south of the Lebanese capital, and Beirut’s port.

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Odyssey Explorer arrives in Lebanon next week, Al-Hayat reports (http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=143925)

As mentioned earlier it's a long & slow journey to get here- apparently the gov't are paying upwards of $100,000 a day for each vessel

[ettore]

No comment. :sad:

Loading... (http://aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=19749)

[Speed of Sound]

Some even considered the Western ships to be exploiting this chance to photograph the coast and depths which Hezbollah overlooks,

As if the area hasn't been photographed a million times already. :ugh:

SoS

[repariit]

Ocean Alert has been in port at Beirut for a day or so, reportedly due to weather. It is now back at an area a couple miles west of Damour doing a very tightly spaced pattern in water a little over 100 feet deep. Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?zoom=10&mmsi=667932000&centerx=35.38093&centery=33.74397).

Ocean Alert has been stopped at 33.7441N 035.4084E for the past few hours after doing a very dense path of scans of this area over the past 24 hours. The depth is about 135 feet. Perhaps they now have divers down in this location. It is six or seven miles east of where the FDR & CVR boxes are thought to be located in 4,200 feet of water. Odyssey explorer has deep diving ROV's that are capable of examining and recovering objects from very deep water.

Also, Odyssey Explorer is now approaching Gibraltar which leaves about 2,200 nm to Beirut. It is making a little over eight knots. It will arrive mid February. Position updates will be seen here (when it passes AIS receivers): Daily Vessel's Itineraries - AIS Marine Traffic (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/datasheet.aspx?datasource=ITINERARIES&MMSI=309814000).

[maDJam]

Here's the track they've been on for the last 24 hours- they most likely found something
http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a382/djmadjam/OceanAlert.jpg

[avlerx]

ODYSSEY EXPLORER passed Gibraltar and into the Med.

[BoeingMEL]

Black boxes have been found according to BBc news... hopefully some hard facts soon.

[repariit]

USS Grapple, a Navy "Ops" vessel, has joined the Ocean Alert at the site two miles offshore. It looks like they will be plucking something off of the bottom pretty soon. This location is six or seven miles east of where the boxes were reported to have been located via their pinger signals early in the search. I am not sure if the BBC reference to the boxes one post earlier is talking about being located or actually recovered. There may be other vessels in the area that do not appear on AIS. Military combat vessels and small civilian craft are exempt from AIS requirements.

Odyssey Explorer is now within 2000 nm's of the site and has increase speed to 10.7 knots.

[Machaca]

Beirut-Online reports (http://www.beirut-online.net/portal/article.php?id=6571):


Searchers have located the black boxes of the Ethiopian Airlines plane under the jet's tail that has been discovered off the coastal town of Naameh, Transport Minister Ghazi Aridi said Saturday.

"The boxes have been found under the rear part of the fuselage," which was found on Saturday morning, the minister said. "Lebanese army divers have gone down to retrieve them, but this operation will take time," he added. Aridi's announcement came after a press conference he held on Saturday afternoon.

Earlier in the day, a search vessel, the vessel Ocean Alert found the rear sections of the aircraft's cabin between 10 and 12 meters long at a depth of 45 meters off Naameh, 12 kilometers south of Beirut. The minister said during the press conference that retrieving parts of the plane was sensitive work.

"We made a positive progress in the search for bodies, the (black) box and consequently the plane," Aridi told reporters.

"We need time. This is a delicate operation. The most important thing is that we have reached an advanced stage," Aridi said. "The result is positive. However we can't deal with it with hastiness."

He also unveiled that Syrian authorities informed him about the discovery of a small part of the plane on the Golden beach in Latakia. It will be handed over to Lebanon on Monday, the minister said.

"I take responsibility for any decision I took and any step I made," he told reporters in response to a question on criticism for allowing foreign ships to scour Lebanese waters.

The minister reiterated there was no foul play in the plane's crash. An army command communiqué said Saturday morning that crews located parts of the wreckage and teams were photographing them before retrieval.

Retrieving the black box and flight data recorder are critical to determining the cause of the January 25 crash. However, Aridi said that even if they were retrieved, the investigation committee needed time to announce final results.

[vanHorck]

....found the rear sections of the airplane.......45m... (ie not the front fuselage?)

.... small part of the plane in Syrian waters.... (my edit) (ie not where the main parts were found)

previously: multiple bodies found

previously: depth of several thousand (ie the rest of the fuselage)

All this information, I know it is early days, however, does it increasingly suggest an inflight breakup?

[Machaca]

vanHorck:
...does it increasingly suggest an inflight breakup?


No.

[repariit]

I agree that the new news of the boxes being in 140 feet of water 2 miles offshore instead of 7 miles offshore in 4000 feet of water means that the debris field might be concentrated in one spot. The items collected elsewhere may all have been floating and moving with the wind and currents.

[Teddy Robinson]

of searching for "known" aircraft wrecks ... it takes a while, nothing is where you think it is, if it in shallow water it could well have moved or be buried by a storm... best trust the people with the equipment who know where to look, have the means to do so.. and the first findings of what they discover in an initial official release.

TR

[repariit]

This is from yaLIBNAN, February 7, 2010

"Minister of Transportation and public works Ghazi Aridi told an Nahar newspaper that Lebanon was unable to recover the black boxes with the technology available to the army and Ocean Alert vessel. For this reason he said , Lebanon plans to acquire more advanced technology to complete the task of recovering the debris, the black boxes and the remaining bodies of the victims . Lebanon Files"

Is the more advanced technology the two ROV's on the Odyssey Explorer, currently en-route and about 1800 nm's away? The depths of about 140 feet where Ocean Alert has been working and the tail section was reported to be should not be very challenging for divers to reach. The deep diving ROV's can operate down to the 4000 foot depths of the originally reported location of the recorders' pingers.

The currently available facts do not fit together very well. It is not possible that ocean currents could move such structure seven miles uphill from a 4000 foot depth to 140 feet of water. Stayed tuned for further news.

[Machaca]

It is not possible that ocean currents could move such structure seven miles uphill from a 4000 foot depth to 140 feet of water.



It is possible for wreckage to achieve neutral buoyancy at any depth and be moved about by currents until being snagged by undersea terrain.

[Mr Optimistic]

Wasn't the a/c well within radar coverage ? If so, why any doubt about where the incident occurred and the impact point of debris. Also, wouldn't the primary radar clearly show any break-up or am I being dumb ?

[MagnusP]

BBC website breaking news reports retrieval of the recorders. No details yet.

[Peter H]

... according to BBC News - Ethiopia Airlines jet 'black box' retrieved in Lebanon (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8502741.stm)

Which reports that one black box has been recovered, together with 'the cockpit' and 'the rear wings' [?]. Still 'searching' for the second black box.

If the report is true, presumably they have the CVR.

Regards, Peter

[Sobelena]

What makes you think it's the CVR? It doesn't reside in the "cockpit".

[repariit]

The recovered box is the FDR which will go to France for read out. The CVR is located too. See the reports here: ET409 | Ya Libnan | World News Live from Lebanon (http://www.yalibnan.com/tag/et409/).

[snowfalcon2]

Interestingly the eventual location of the wreckage as reported yesterday (2 NM W Naameh) is exactly where the initial reports said, less than six hours after the crash.

Hopefully the black boxes are not damaged.

[maDJam]

http://nowlebanon.com/Library/Images/MainPagePictures/1st-blackbox-420.jpg
http://nowlebanon.com/Library/Images/MainPagePictures/airplane-wings-2420.jpg
Is that the CVR or the FDR? Cause this is the only one they found so far that will be flown on the Prime Minister's private jet to Paris this evening.

Still searching for the other box

[repariit]

The first box found and recovered is the FDR.

USNS Grapple has been running a pattern over the bottom ranging from where the FDR was recovered in 150 feet of water and also an area a bit west where the depth is 2,300 feed deep. I wonder if the CVR's pinger is still operating. It is supposed to work for about a month. There must be something of interest in the deep water.

The Grapple's recent path can be seen here:
Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?level0=100)

[Machaca]

http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/ET409-00.jpg


http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/ET409-01.jpg


http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/ET409-02.jpg


http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/ET409-03.jpg


http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/ET409-04.jpg


http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/ET409-05.jpg

[lomapaseo]

Nice pictures Machaca:ok:

Predictably this should feed the speculation on this board about the similar looking parts to AF447 and all the possible theories du jour :}

[repariit]

This report seems odd > > > >

ET409: Search stopped due to bad weather in Lebanon (http://www.yalibnan.com/2010/02/08/et409-search-stopped-due-to-bad-weather-in-lebanon/)

February 8, 2010 ⋅ News Brief
"The search operations for the victims , debris and voice recorder ( black box ) of the crashed Ethiopian plane was halted due to bad weather conditions according to Future TV
Al Manar TV quoted Minister of Transportation and Public Works Ghazi Aridi said as saying that the investigation committee will issue a report in couple of days and the search will either continue or halted based on the report"

Given the current weather report showing southerly wind at 12 knots with light rain.

[etherate]

From those pictures which show some fairly large sections, seems to suggest that the airplane was intact before impact. Lends credence to the theories of spatial disorientation postulated earlier.

Re the lightning theories, strangely enough EAL have not had happy experiences at Beirut. I recall many moons ago the first (new) B720B Ethiopian had, (ET-AAG I think) was supposedly destroyed on the ground by lightning in the 1960s. Story at the time was it was struck on landing and the net result was an uncontrolled fire which destroyed the airframe.

It makes rather sobering reading in the Ethiopian press and online journals, that many of the crew were replacements for the original crew who had their rosters changed. E.g the Captain rostered for the 409 was changed to enable attending a wedding.

Anyway with several international AAIBs input, sounds encouraging that some cause may be discovered in time.

[Sqwak7700]

Now that is what the tail of an aircraft that hits the water intact looks like. :hmm:

[snowfalcon2]

Today: "Lebanese army marine commandos resumed search for the victims of the ill-fated Ethiopian plane while USNS Grapple continued hunt for the second black box."

(TAFs had forecasted winds tempo 20g30 knots and thunderstorms since yesterday afternoon, and still today up to 26 knots. Actuals were indeed 15g27 early today. Beirut airport is by the sea so presumably the wind at sea is not that much stronger than at the airport, but anyway those conditions are not very nice for salvage. Hopefully operations can progress today.)

[threemiles]

Ocean Explorer was out this morning but returned after a few hours.

[wes_wall]

What is in the second container of water pictured above?

[S.F.L.Y]

looks like a servo

[theov]

Dutch newssite reports: crash caused by pilot error. This would be the first conclusion after a readout of the FDR, 'according to a source close to the investigation'.


Fout piloot oorzaak crash bij Libanon | nu.nl/buitenland | Het laatste nieuws het eerst op nu.nl (http://www.nu.nl/buitenland/2180672/fout-piloot-oorzaak-crash-bij-libanon.html)

[Hedge36]

Lovely. Call off the investigating parties, case closed.

What bunk.

[wozzo]

The story is from Reuters, English version (NY Times):
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/02/09/world/international-uk-airlines-lebanon-crash.html

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Pilot error caused the crash of an Ethiopian Airlines plane off the coast of Lebanon last month which killed all 90 people on board, a source familiar with the investigation into the accident said Tuesday.
"The investigation team has reached an early conclusion that it was pilot error, based on the information from the black box," the source told Reuters.
That's all of new "information".

[FA10]

I could imagine that the guys were not aware of their wrong (eastbound) heading, ran into a warning from their EGPWS (the terrain rises steeply, some peaks around 3000 meters) and lost control during their escape maneuver, which probably had to be carried out in very unstable air!

[ettore]

More to speculate on... :confused:

Ethiopian plane 'exploded' after take-off: Lebanon minister (http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Ethiopian+plane+exploded+after+take+Lebanon+minister/2541043/story.html)

[repariit]

So we're told "pilot error caused the crash" of an airplane that "exploded during flight", and "no terrorism" is involved.

How does one accomplish that?

[wozzo]

So we're told "pilot error caused the crash" of an airplane that "exploded during flight", and "no terrorism" is involved.

How does one accomplish that?

Some (media) background:

"pilot error": reported by Reuters, sourced from Beirut, from their correspondent there, attributed to someone close to the team who has access to FDR data. So, it might be actually an (maybe not everybody's) preliminary opinion within the group of people in the center of the investigation.

"exploded": Offered by the Lebanon health minister, because of the state and location of some recovered corpses. He probably made it up.

"no terrorism": As currently nothing points into that direction, and given the general inclination to suspect terrorism and/or consipracy when it comes to airplanes falling from the sky, especially in that region (to witness also in this forum), you'll have to have solid evidence before anybody official will say the opposite.

[maDJam]

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Ethiopian Airlines does not rule out sabotage in Beirut crash (http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=145350)

Looks like this will be another Lebanese "Find the truth... if ever..." issue
&

Public Works and Transportation Minister Aridi told NOW on Wednesday that search teams found the second black box of the Ethiopian plane that crashed in January as well as additional victims’ bodies.

Only DNA testing can identify the remains, he added.

They identified one of the bodies on Tuesday afternoon as the Pilot.

[repariit]

Odyssey Explorer has reappeared on the internet AIS tracking system 720 nm west of Beirut. ETA is 0200 on the 15th. It is interesting that it is proceeding as though it remains under contract to Lebanon to join an on going search effort, despite various reports that the effort could be terminated soon.

[Finals19]

Sorry, but having read that Debka article, the political bias is shocking.

Bear in mind the recent very heated relationship between the Lebanon and Israel and the Israeli political position in the broader sense of the word in the middle east. And how incredibly convenient - now the memory module is now missing.

Did anybody say Mossad?

[CirrusF]

Just heard a report on French radio that BEA have released a statement to say that all flight instruments were in full working order until impact.

[wozzo]

AFP reporting:
AFP: Black box data rule out sabotage of crashed plane (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gpGWWrSFzNkpz99e4SbjVpdlAMiA)


BEIRUT — Black box data show sabotage cannot be blamed for the crash of an Ethiopian airliner that killed 90 people when it plunged into the sea off Beirut last month, a Lebanese minister said on Thursday.
Transport Minister Ghazi Aridi said the conclusion was reached based on a preliminary report of technical information found in the flight data recorder following expert analysis in France.
The data "showed that all the aircraft's instruments functioned well until it crashed, which rejects the hypothesis of an act (of sabotage) involving an explosion," Aridi told a news conference at Beirut airport.
His comments came after the office of Information Minister Tareq Mitri issued a statement saying "there is absolutely no evidence an act of sabotage or a terrorist act."
It would also speak against lightning strike or any other technical malfunction, wouldn't it?

[repariit]

Will the search continue?
Current news here and below: ET409 | Ya Libnan | World News Live from Lebanon (http://www.yalibnan.com/tag/et409/)


ET409 crash: No official announcement before CVR is found (http://www.yalibnan.com/2010/02/11/et409-crash-no-official-announcement-before-cvr-is-found/)

February 11, 2010 ⋅ News Brief
Lebanon’s Transportation and Public Works Minister Ghazi Aridi declared the coastal strip of Naameh off-limits Thursday and vowed not to make any official announcement before the entire second black box VCR ( the cockpit voice recorder ) was found.
“The area of search operations off the coast of Naameh is off-limits,” Aridi said during a press conference at Beirut airport.
Lebanon he said will halt recovery of debris unless it was told otherwise by the Ethiopian Airlines company.
“Some of the plane parts were kept in place. If the insurance company wants to retrieve them and ask Ethiopian Airlines for that, then we will do the job,” said Aridi as he showed pictures of the plane wreckage taken underwater.
Search teams on Wednesday recovered the base of the second black box but an essential piece was missing.
“The base of the second black box from the ill-fated Ethiopian jet has been recovered; however, it appeared that the part containing the memory device of the cockpit voice recorder was separated from the base,” said a statement by the Lebanese army.
Aridi has said all equipment and systems on the Ethiopian Airlines plane functioned properly until the moment it crashed into the Mediterranean last month making it unlikely that the jet was brought down by an explosion.
http://www.yalibnan.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/ethiopia-airline-crash-lebanon-debris-underwater.jpg
A combo image shows underwater photos of parts of the Ethiopian Airlines plane which crashed into the Mediterranean sea on January 25, 2010, during a news conference held by Lebanon’s Minister of Public Works and Transport Ghazi Aridi at Beirut international airport, February 11, 2010.
REUTERS/ Jamal Saidi

[atakacs]

“The base of the second black box from the ill-fated Ethiopian jet has been recovered; however, it appeared that the part containing the memory device of the cockpit voice recorder was separated from the base,” said a statement by the Lebanese army.Anyone remembering a similar event with a modern passenger jet ? Strikes me as rather odd...

[repariit]

Here is some information on the CVR. The pinger is securely fastened to the memory module, and may still be active.


https://commerce.honeywell.com/wcsstore/B2BDirectMyAerospaceAssetStore/images/spacer.gif


https://commerce.honeywell.com/wcsstore/B2BDirectMyAerospaceAssetStore/images/spacer.gif
https://commerce.honeywell.com/wcsstore/B2BDirectMyAerospaceAssetStore/images/catalog/Recorders%20-%20Large%20Image.jpg

For over 50 years, Honeywell has led the industry in crash survivable recording systems. Honeywell supplies state-of-the-art solid state data, voice and video recorders to support applications in air transport, regional, business jet, military, and helicopter markets.






5.0 SSCVR CRASH PROTECTION DESIGN
The SSCVR's crash survivable memory unit (CSMU) provides for complete data recovery when subjected
to the crash conditions stipulated in ED-56a, and thereby the intent of TSO C-123A :
• Impact Shock 3400G, 6.5 milliseconds
• Penetration Resistance 500 lb. weight from 10 feet
• Static Crush 5000 lbs., 5 minutes
• High Temperature Fire 1100°C, 30 minutes
• Low Temperature Fire 260°C, 10 hours
• Deep Sea Pressure and 20,000 feet, 30 days
• Sea Water/Fluids Immersion Per ED-56a
The CSMU design has been fully qualified to these requirements and, in fact, exceeds them by
considerable margin in key survival areas:
• Impact shock has been successfully demonstrated at 4800 G's
• High temperature fire exposure has been tested to 60 minutes
• Low temperature fire was tested immediately after exposure to 1100°C fire
The superior performance of the CSMU is the result of 30 years experience with designing and producing
protective enclosures. As shown in Figure 6, a very simple package design has been achieved, which not
only contributes to its industry leading survivability characteristics, but also assures a high degree of
maintainability. Compared to competing models, requirements for specialized repair knowledge and
support equipment have been greatly reduced.
Steel Armor
Housing
Housing Liner
Insulation
Upper Module
Thermal Block
FLASH Memory ICs
Memory Board
Access Cover
Steel Armor
Insulation
Cover Liner
Thermal Block
Lower Module
Patent
Protected
Figure 6: CSMU Cutaway View Showing Major Features
The CSMU is easily removed from the top of the SSCVR chassis without having to disassemble the
remainder of the unit. A steel bottom cover provides easy access to the Memory Board. Since the CSMU
uses modular "dry-block" materials for both the insulating liner and thermal mass, there is no need to deal
with the sticky thermal jells or special insulating fluids. The Memory Board design is very simple,
consisting of only a single small circuit card assembly.

[EmBee]

Anyone remembering a similar event with a modern passenger jet?

I believe the B737 Gol Flight 1907 CVR separated. The CVR ‘chassis’ and the complete FDR were recovered, but the CVR ‘memory unit/module’ was not located until some 3 weeks later. But then that aircraft reportedly experienced high altitude in-flight break-up; not the case here (allegedly).

[lomapaseo]

reparit

Thanks for the pictures.:ok:

The picture in the upper left is the most revealing. I would appreciate any similar high resolution pictures of this if anybody has a link

[snowfalcon2]

The picture in the upper left is the most revealing. I would appreciate any similar high resolution pictures of this if anybody has a link

Try http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/06fh90UgGu5n7/1000x.jpg

or, if it won't work, at the airliners.net forum

[MD83FO]

wonder why hezballah officials cancelled their reservation at the last minute

[repariit]

Anyone know if a bomb blast would mean burns on recovered bodies?

ET409 crash: No signs of burns from explosion (http://www.yalibnan.com/2010/02/11/et409-crash-no-signs-of-burns-from-explosion/)

February 11, 2010 ⋅ News Brief
Al Diyar Newspaper has reported that the investigation indicated that the plane exploded in the air, but the bodies and remains of the victims that were found did not reveal any signs of any burns from the explosion…

[Speed of Sound]

wonder why hezballah officials cancelled their reservation at the last minute

You tell us, seeing as you seem to know something that no-one else knows.

SoS

[Smurfjet]

What is the typical differential pressure on the B738 hull during climb through 6000-9000 feet?

[framer]

On the 73-300's and 400's it's about 3psi at that stage, by 9000' it would be very close to 4psi. i don't fly the 800's but I imagine it would be pretty much the same, happy to be corrected.

[framer]

Can fuel pump switching be ruled out due to;
a) nitrogen inerting (not sure if it had it)
b) fuel load being such that it wouldn't have been required at that stage of flight.
c) Aircraft was too new to have the faulty wiring/pump or whatever it was that caused centre tank explosions in the past.

[parabellum]

Anyone know if a bomb blast would mean burns on recovered bodies?



It is possible that the bodies would not show the effects of a bomb blast if:

a). The bomb was in a location that would cripple the aircraft without the blast reaching the passengers.

b). Not all passengers would be effected by the blast even if the bomb was in a location within or close to the passengers.

Have all the pax bodies been recovered yet? Possibly too early to discount a bomb blast.

[rottenray]

Framer writes:

Can fuel pump switching be ruled out due to;
a) nitrogen inerting (not sure if it had it)
b) fuel load being such that it wouldn't have been required at that stage of flight.
c) Aircraft was too new to have the faulty wiring/pump or whatever it was that caused centre tank explosions in the past.I've looked around a lot, and I'm not sure!

But www.b737.org.uk (http://www.b737.org.uk/thai737news.htm) has a page on B737 center tank explosions.

More info on their fuel inerting page (http://www.b737.org.uk/fuel.htm#Centre_Fuel_Tank_Inerting).

Here is the FAA page on SFAR88 (http://www.faa.gov/search/?q=SFAR88+&x=21&y=9) (dealing with fuel tank ignition sources).

Just guessing, I'd say the -800 series had wiring, pump and duty cycle improvements but I doubt they had inerting.

JetPhotos.Net has this page (http://jetphotos.net/census/aircraft2.php?msnid=737NG-29935) on the frame's history.


Anyone else got firm info on this?


RR

[rottenray]

Para writes:

Have all the pax bodies been recovered yet? Possibly too early to discount a bomb blast.No, they haven't, and we can assume that all never will be.

Without getting too grizzly, as time goes on less forensic evidence will be available.

In this instance, far more will be learned from the recovered airframe bits and pieces.

As far as the possibility of a bomb blast, we won't really know much more until more conclusive statements regarding the FDR are made and the data pod from the CVR is recovered and read.


Personally, I'm hoping the investigation reveals some issue which can be addressed and fixed so safety in the future is improved.

I think it's much easier to fix airframe and pilot problems than it is to fix the behavior exhibited by discontented, motivated humans.

RR

[repariit]

To review the little bits that we know about the search:
1. Early USN and Ocean Alert reports indicated FDR and CVR pingers located in 4000 feet of water, about six to seven miles off-shore.
2. Odyssey Explorer, with deep water exploration capability, leaves Falmouth, UK to join the search. It is currently about 600 nm west of Beirut with ETA of Feb 15th.
3. Ocean Alert and USNS Grapple search the area including shallow 150 foot depths 2 miles off shore where the FDR, part of the CVR, the horizontal stabilizer and a few other bits of airframe structure are located and recovered by divers from Lebanon's Navy. The CVR's pinger and memory module are still missing.
4. The deep water site has likely been searched via side scan sonar, but is too deep for divers to access. Presumably Odyssey Explorer will get a look at debris already mapped in the deeper water upon arrival Feb 15th.

[begbie553]

Can fuel pump switching be ruled out due to;
a) nitrogen inerting (not sure if it had it)
b) fuel load being such that it wouldn't have been required at that stage of flight.
c) Aircraft was too new to have the faulty wiring/pump or whatever it was that caused centre tank explosions in the past.


I can confim that the a/c did NOT have N2 Generation system installed, couldn't comment on the fuel load, and Mods had been c/out to improve the the Tank Issues per Boeing SB/SL/AD. All to the highest standards.

[iflytb20]

i don't fly the 800's but I imagine it would be pretty much the same, happy to be corrected. In the -800s at 10,000 feet the Cabin Altitude is 1000 feet and the DP around 4 psi.

I'd say the -800 series had wiring, pump and duty cycle improvements but I doubt they had inerting.In our fleet, 2 aircraft [leased ones] had the old pumps, so we have to leave 500 Kg in the Center Tank at all times. All the other ones have the modified pumps with the Automatic shutoff. The aircraft delivered after 2008 all have the NGS inerting system installed.

I hope they find the CVR Memory module soon. Chances are it might have been covered up by silt. Any idea how they are searching for it??

Cheers

[pinkaroo]

This aircraft was destroyed by an act of terror. The facts will out. Ask your security managers about the American report.

[Spooky 2]

The American report? What agency in the US has produced such a report? Not saying this is not the case but would like to see something more than your cryptic statement.

[Speed of Sound]

This aircraft was destroyed by an act of terror. The facts will out.

So by admitting that the facts aren't actually out yet, where does that leave your first statement? :ugh:

SoS

[rottenray]

Spooky writes:

The American report? What agency in the US has produced such a report? Not saying this is not the case but would like to see something more than your cryptic statement.I'm interested too.

NO US government agency is above suspicion, but there hasn't been any chatter about secret NTSB findings or discovery of motives in this unfortunate accident.


As I imagine things, here is how the various players might like it to work out:

-- Boeing: ANYTHING except a problem with the airframe
-- ETH: ANYTHING except a problem with maintenance or crew
-- BEY: ANYTHING except a problem with security or ATC competence

We have several interests at play here, and there has been some healthy speculation in this thread so far.

If I had to guess at this point, I'd have to say disorientation. Blinded by lightning, perhaps hit by same. High workload resulting in unclear communication, coupled with some astounding event. The frame was apparently in good enough health to not fly into the ocean itself, so there must be some nuances we haven't learned about.

I might have to revise that opinion based upon more FDR information.

Yes, there were military training exercises being conducted in the region, but, generally speaking, equipment is a bit more sophisticated now and so are operators. The chance of a training mission loosing a live missile are close to 0. The chance of a training mission loosing a missile with active and viable seeking capability is close to 0.

Yes, B737 did have center tank wiring and pump issues, but given the number of op hours, even unfixed, this problem is statistically irrelevant. Only a few exploded (not a comfort to next of kin, I know) but there are thousands of the family in the air at any second.

Yes, it could be terrorism, but that just doesn't play well. Any possible motive doesn't match the mix of souls on board.


As I stated earlier, I hope this ends up being a problem with frame or crew training, something that can be "fixed" as it were.

RR

[ettore]

A good round-up of the situation: The Daily Star - Politics - US Odyssey Explorer set to join airline crash search (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=111737)

[repariit]

Odyssey Explorer is now just six miles form Beirut. It appears to be heading into the port. Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?level0=100)

Ocean Alert is now tied up at the pier.

[Speed of Sound]

Ocean Alert is now tied up at the pier.

So is the Ocean Explorer now. ;)

SoS

[pinkaroo]

Recovery of the victims of this incident has revealed injuries which evidence an onboard explosion of specific origin. Last time I was perhaps too specific as to injuries for the likes of our moderators.

[rottenray]

Pink writes:

Recovery of the victims of this incident has revealed injuries which evidence an onboard explosion of specific origin. Last time I was perhaps too specific as to injuries for the likes of our moderators.

Got links? Statements? Photos?

RR

[lomapaseo]

Got links? Statements? Photos?


I'll settle for the links to authoratative statements and skip the photos of bodies. Of course I can make do with photos of the wreckage on the sea floor. So far all I can see is that it wasn't level when it hit.