EK time to upgrade on 777

[littlejet]

Need honest opinions from insiders. Just trying to get an idea.
There is a new rule now, right?
Much appreciated

L

[SOPS]

The search engine is your friend. My guess, at the moment, for a new joiner 7 to 10 years.

[fatbus]

Right now 2400 total and upgrading about 50 this year and alot less next 2011/12 things are to pickup abit. So you would need 2400 upgrades 2 years ago there was about 200 in one year don't see that again as it was too hard to organize the total amount of training. As of now there is a big back log of 777 fo's at or very near the 3 year mark and the 330 fo's that went over to the 777 will have the regd time in the next wave (2011/2012), so the in fighting will be fun to watch again.Look at 10 years and you might not be disappointed, sorry.

[jumbo1]

Just heard the other day that Boeing upgrades have been increased from 40 to 80 for next year.
It's only hearsay but will be welcome if true
Rgds
J

[whossorrynow]

Let's see.
80 upgrades a year, 1200 F/Os at EK right now.
That'll be 15 years to get to the left seat for someone joining now. Or if it stays at 40 upgrades a year, 30 years to move over.

But that's not counting Airbus upgrades and not counting DECs, retirements and resignations. Expect more DECs than retirements. And expect relatively few new Airbus deliveries, a handful of A380s over the next two years of which Flight magazine reported this week that EK is once again looking at deferring. EK refused to comment.

Anyone joining EK expecting less than 10-12 years to left seat is probably going to end up whining on this board.

[Payscale]

Why are you only looking at B777. I think over the next few years Airbus will have more upgrades.
However, dont come here for a fast upgrade anymore. With 30 aircraft when I arrived, 60 was easy. With 130 aircraft, 260 is a while away!

[fatbus]

EK is in no way wanting to defer the 380's , airbus is having trouble getting them out on time, bring and they will fill em

I believe some 332 and 772 are retiring in 2010/2011

[whossorrynow]

EK is in no way wanting to defer the 380's...

Oh yeah. Check this out then.

Emirates in A380 delivery hiatus from late 2010 (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/11/30/335517/emirates-in-a380-delivery-hiatus-from-late-2010.html)

[Bring Back The Biff]

Littlejet.

Short answer is 'difficult to tell' - the maths above is dubious to say the least (fatbus think about it...).

Nobody actually knows what's going on.

Yes - the rules changed this year to increase the 'hard time' requirements; however, that FCI expires at the end of this year and will most likely quietly slip into the ether like most decisions made by that particular company executive.

So - you are left with waiting to see what happens on the commercial front which is anyone's guess...

As far as I can tell, EK is still not a bad option for a relatively short time wide body command - look at Cathay: probably 12-14 years for joiners right now, Air NZ probably 15-20 years, Qantas similar....

Like anywhere, 'you pays your money and you takes your chances'! The job here depends a lot on your attitude, if you come with a demanding attitude and get outraged by every inevitable change in conditions - stay at home. If you can view it a bit more as an adventure and enjoy the job for the good parts, then come and have a look.

I've been heavily disadvantaged by the change in upgrade policy, but after the initial disbelief - realise that it will probably change in due course for a number of reasons and the overriding factor will - as always - be commercial requirements. There is no airline in the world who can guarantee upgrade times...

Good luck.

[fatbus]

The delay you refer to was planned along time ago and as such posted in print along time ago, Airbus is facing some production delays with the end of the first wave airplanes, EK is now looking at filler due too the latest slow down on the 380 and it may work out to no gap instead 15 they can only get their hands on 13 and they want and or need 15. The loads are up and the yields are getting better. Believe what you what, but what difference does it make to the line driver

[mensaboy]

TCAS is on record as stating that the company is most concerned about the 'lack' of aircraft arrival projections for the next few years..... SO it is safe to assume that the opposite is true.

I have come to learn that what is stated is usually propaganda with an ulterior motive. I suspect this alterior motive, likely instructed from those above TCAS, is to get the message out that EK requires many pilots in the near future and that upgrades will come fast and furious. Needless to say, this is not the reality.

In spite of that, a 7 year upgrade timeframe is likely when one considers the amount of pilots who will be leaving EK in the near future and lets face it, this company is still growing at a faster clip than most other airlines. It's still not a bad deal, so I question why the subterfuge from our leaders?

[whossorrynow]

fatbus wrote:
The delay you refer to was planned along time ago and as such posted in print along time ago...
The article I linked to was published on November 30th and takes quotes and forecasts from the Dubai Air Show that ran from 15th thru 19th November 2009. Guess that could be considered to be a long time ago so I won't argue the point.

Although I think the real agenda of the article is to suggest that there is a credibility gap between EKs growth hype and what the engine manufacturers say they will be delivering over the next two years or so.

I didn't notice that the loads were ever that down even if the yield was, but I do think that EK is being more cautious with their growth than they portray in the press. I have no problem with that.

[kingpost]

Realistically, 7 - 10 years.

Something else to consider, they don't just give it to you, you have to work for it - at present there's over a 50% failure rate.

[desertflyer]

Kingpost.....where did you get your 50% failure rate data from. Can you name the official source??

[trimotor]

Heard that too, from people who know these things.

The alledged command upgrade failure rate needs to be seen in perspective though: there was a period, 4 years ago or so, when EK took on many pilots who had previously been rejected or not interviewed. In some cases EK approached them. (Apologies to anyone recruited around this time who had and are havng no problems).

Numbers to be recruited and trained were huge. Some around this time passed the FO transition course by a whisker, with concerns expressed at the time that there would be a long way to go before they would pass the upgrade. Sadly these assessments seem to have been correct.

Details could be discussed about the minimum pass mark for a command check, and some may have fallen foul of (positive) changes in this regard. Practically though, do any of us want anyone in the left seat in whom they cannot, as a colleague or passenger, have solid confidence?

[Fred Garvin M.P.]

CFI-A - Nearly a 50% failure rate on the last two CCQ classes. As well as the last two upgrade classes. Not sure which fleet he was referring too though for the upgrades.

[Volverine]

Any news about the stupid FCI stating revised requirements for upgrades ?
(Silly and unfair FCI printed just after MEL event to impress medias and others)
It should expire in few days (jan-1-2010)

[Watchdog]

Fred,
It was the Airbus fleet.

[sanddude]

Pretty standard stuff. When an airline is expanding fast, every man and his dog passes the (command) training. When things are slowing down all of a sudden the failure rate is going trrhu the roof. To bad for the blokes involved, wrong time,wrong place!

I see that they have changed the whole command process/traing as well.:hmm: