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FL170
13th Aug 2009, 11:03
Here is something that has me stumped, hopefully this thread will generate some discussion..

It is a common point thrown at those who aspire to fly jets. That is the inevitable depletion of the world's petroleum supplies.

I have trouble understanding how airliners can commit to investing in a brand new fleet whether they be 380's, yourDreamingliner's etc..I am no businessman however common sense prevails that the plane need be useful for X amount of time for the project to be financially viable. Look at the recently retired QF Classics and how long they were in service for. I'm sure they generated plenty of cash flow after they were paid off hence healthy company profits.

What is to happen say in 5, 10 even 15 years time when the oil rigs start spitting out dirt. Is there something the airlines know we don't? Committing to technology which will be obsolete in the not to distant future is an extreme risk in my eyes, so what am I missing?

This brings me to my next point. Quite obviously an alternative fuel is the only option. With the technology available in this era if we haven't found an economically viable alternative already, and we don't find one in the near future is it possible we will be seeing a revolution in aeroplane propulsion (extinction of the gas turbine?). If this is the case, how will an aeroplane with systems as complex as say the 380 have a 'conversion' kit fitted. I'd imagine this would require re-designing many components and systems and whether this is financially viable, well I doubt it.

Food for thought, I'll leave it to the gang now to figure it out..then onto world domination :p

Jabawocky
14th Aug 2009, 01:59
You have been listening to the Y2K bug and Global warming tree hugging, hairy legged yoghurt eating Tofu Farting fairies too much! :=

Ever wonder why during all the years of scare mungering we have not had an end to supply? Sure its not a infinite resource, and yes one day man will use other fuels, but believe me in 5, 10 or 15 years they will not be spitting out dirt, or mud for that matter.

In every well thats been tapped they have only ever taken about 35% of the oil, the rest is there but is harder to get and one day it will be cheaper to get it too. So there is a heck of a lot to go in the fields we have already used and are using.

Now another question to ask yourself, do you remember the Falklands, those pissy little islands of Southern America??? now why on earth did the Brits fight so hard for that little patch of the planet????

In short think.....British Petroleum! ;) Rumour has it there is more oild down that way than we have ever used or thought of using.

See what else you can learn.....but do not take the first page of Google searchs as ALWAYS containing the truth!

J:ok:

sleemanj
14th Aug 2009, 02:19
You don't have to dig up fossil fuels, we can grow it if it comes down to that.

World-First Biofuel Test Flight - Cheap Flights, Airfares & Holidays - Air New Zealand Official Site - NZ (http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/aboutus/biofuel-test/default.htm)

Early days so it's not practical yet on many levels - but expect the wonders of science to increase yields from such crops in order to both reduce the land required to grow it, and reduce the price "at the pump".

ForkTailedDrKiller
14th Aug 2009, 02:34
1) What Jaba said!

Australia, for example, has extensive known oil reserves - they are just not currently commercially viable as there are more easily tapped reserves available.

Biofuels are a disaster...

2) No so! While it is true that turning food-grade grains into ethanol is immoral, there are other second-generation technologies being explored that look really interesting. For example, biodiesel is already being produced by micro-algae in pilot plants. One of the bi-products of this process is a high protein feed supplement that is high in Omega 3 oils. That opens up all sorts of really interesting possibilities - high Omega 3 beef, milk, chicken etc!

Dr :8

YSMB
14th Aug 2009, 07:19
I got my very first delivery of AVGAS yesterday in my very own drums.

I have now glimpsed the power of oil. What Jaba said.

YSMB

sms777
14th Aug 2009, 10:08
That is a very intelligent post i will give you 10 out of 10 for that. Seriously we have nothing to worry about in our lifetime (that is about 30 years for me), there are plenty of oil reserves left in the world. Do not forget all the gasfields in and around Australia that we know of and the many yet to be explored. Where there is gas there is normally oil below that.
( One of the reasons why i am hanging on to my 454 Chevy powered El Camino utes.)

:ok:

RadioSaigon
14th Aug 2009, 10:28
You have been listening to the Y2K bug and Global warming tree hugging, hairy legged yoghurt eating Tofu Farting fairies too much! :=

ROFMPL :}

BEAUTIFULLY spoken Jaba -do you mind if I shamelessly plagiarise your words in potential, future missives???:ok:

Jabawocky
14th Aug 2009, 11:35
knock yourself out! lucky I kept it short...........:}

18-Wheeler
14th Aug 2009, 23:22
That is a very intelligent post i will give you 10 out of 10 for that. Seriously we have nothing to worry about in our lifetime (that is about 30 years for me), there are plenty of oil reserves left in the world. Do not forget all the gasfields in and around Australia that we know of and the many yet to be explored.

True enough there's a good 30 years world-wide of oil left in the ground, though it will rapidly become very hard and very expensive to extract. I am not looking forwards to but am expecting things like $5 per litre+.
Fortunately Australia has a lot of coal and it can be converted to fuel by the Fischer–Tropsch process.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer–Tropsch_process

Wallsofchina
14th Aug 2009, 23:56
There is an issue, and since aircraft are energy hungry, it is worth keeping a watch on development of alternative fuels, and alternative power sources.

M. King Hubbert, an oil man predicted that availability of oil would peak around the year 2000, with a decline after that.

It was a remarkable prediction:
M. King Hubbert • Hubbert Peak of Oil Production (http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/)

Dr Colin Campell's explanation on 4 Corners is as good as I've seen. he points out that what we are facing is the long decline, with some ups and downs in pricing, but an inevitable long term result if we just use traditional oil products.

4 Corners Broadband: Peak Oil? (http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/default_full.htm)