View Full Version : Grand National
3rd Apr 2009, 14:44
Does anyone know diddly squat about this horse race going on tomorrow? I might well have my annual flutter so I'm all ears if there's someone with a hot tip to make me a tidy sum?
Any takers? Any advice? Anyone been given the nod from 'an insider'?
P.S please start a new thread if its about animal cruelty.
Well, the BBC's Runners & Riders (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7959295.stm) page is a good place to start, I think. As for betting, well... it's all about finding some piece of info that the bookies don't know yet, so that it's not factored in to their odds. The pundits have their ratings, but I would also look at:
Rambling Minster: possible, though 10-1 odds might be a bit short now
State Of Play: experienced, should be fresh
L'Ami: new trainer may have worked on last year's jumping problems
Not that keen on:
My Will: way too short at 7-1
Butler's Cabin: Tony McCoy is good, but not that good.
Comply Or Die: last year's winner, now with added weight.
Hey, you get what you pay for... :}
3rd Apr 2009, 15:25
Don't know much about horses but what I do know is I the horse I've got in the pub swindle (sorry, Sweepstake) isn't well fancied. Forecast odds 606:1 and description was 'possibly likely to be lapped'. Cerium is its name.
3rd Apr 2009, 15:36
Recon you must be thinking of 2008 winner 'Comply or Die' and the third horse 'Snowy Morning' both would be an each way bet in my book.
Good luck to all, and may you all be winners. Having a vast experience in horse racing, off the record I'm putting my £££ on Red Rum to win for a fourth time.
3rd Apr 2009, 15:37
Last year hit the winner Comply or Die (no joking my Doctor said a similar thing to me the week before the National last year so it seemed pertinent, and I'm still here cos I complied!), looks a little heavy this year but I will have an each way for old times sake.
Main bet this year for me is Rambling Minster, spent a good few years living in Minster in Kent with some fond memories!
Can't understand the form guides!
3rd Apr 2009, 16:46
Cloudy Lane, Donald and Ginger McCain's latest runner. Fancied a bit.
But what do I know, I've never won a thing on the National.
3rd Apr 2009, 19:16
With the number of competing horses put down over the years, i'm not surprised it's not sponsored by Pedigree Petfoods.
3rd Apr 2009, 19:52
Got to have a little E/W bet on Golden Flight!
Going for Rambling too so given my track record that's one best avoided!
3rd Apr 2009, 19:52
I backed a horse once at 20 to 1...........came in at 20 past 4. :}
3rd Apr 2009, 20:47
An old Boss of mine whose parents (both) were bookies / /bookettas - Told me that th GN was a bookies Haven - too many Nags, too long, too many tins of Katomeat/lizard food to be a fair bet for the great unwashed (like me) - avoid -Watch the race on the telly but do not commit your cash.- enjoy the race but do NOT Bet - Its too many NAGS jumping over Very HIGH fences on a demanding course.
3rd Apr 2009, 21:29
I backed a horse once at 20 to 1...........came in at 20 past 4. Well done!:ok: the race starts at 4:15 and usually takes about 8 or 9 minutes. Your horse finished it in 5 minutes. It must have won. How much did you win........Oh wait that must be a joke.:)
As for this years race. It's not the lottery it was. As a rule the race is won by a 9 or 10 year old carrying less than 11 stone and horses at the top of the market. You can eliminate No.1 to 16 straight away. Thus leaving a mere 28 possibles. You can also safely eliminate all the high priced 66/1 and above horses. This takes out another 8 leaving 20. And so on and so forth...............But to cut to the chase if the second favourite Butler's Cabin doesn't bloody fall again as it surely must with the burden of my money on it's back. It will win. An alternative, albeit obvious is My Will it carries too much weight but is a worthy favourite. A bit of an outsider to consider is Irish Invader around 20/1. Richard, make sure you put your money on at 20 to 1. If it does finish at 20 past 4 you're quids in again.:ok:
That's where I will lose my money anyhow.
3rd Apr 2009, 21:34
Ahhhhh.....the Irish and their horses.
'tis a meld of enchantment.
3rd Apr 2009, 21:36
I was told that betting on horse was a mugs' game - so now I only enter the National Lottery . . .
3rd Apr 2009, 21:40
In this country, everyone either owns a horse, has a share in a horse, knows someone who owns a racehorse or used to own a share in a racehorse (me for one), goes to the races at least once a year and everyone has a bet on the Grand National. Almost every pub is beside a bookies. Some pubs even have them attached. It's the national pastime.
It's the national pastime.
It's also a nice & legal tax avoidance method (http://www.grantthornton.ie/PublicationsAndEvents/Tax/GuidetoTaxationfortheIrishHorseSportIndustry). A couple of years ago, some rules were changed (http://www.breakingnews.ie/archives/2007/0201/ireland/cwsngbkfaumh/), so it's less of a benefit than it once was. You can still get a tax break if you're an "artist", though. :rolleyes:
4th Apr 2009, 01:14
I fancy Irish Invader, but it's anybody's race.
4th Apr 2009, 06:50
Actually I DO like the look of Irish Invader...:ok:
I fancy Irish Invader.....
Actually I DO like the look of Irish Invader.
Wouldn't these sorts of comments be more suited to a more, ahem, specialist adult type website...?
The going could be heavy on the BBC this pm. Coverage of the race starts at 1pm with the build up to the highlights of last years race. Claire and the gang will be hard pushed to avoid repeating themselves in the long trot down to the post for the 4.15 start.
Aaaand... false start.
I hope people aren't taking my advice... I thought Rambling Minster was short at 10-1, now it's going for 17-2. Whoa!
Aaaand... another false start!
State of Play is 14-1. Hmmm. :hmm:
3rd attempt... they're off!
4th Apr 2009, 15:31
Comply or Die E/W:ok:
Well, that was a bust for my predictions. Rambling Minster pulled up before the 20th fence. State Of Play made 4th, while Comply Or Die (which I didn't rate) came 2nd.
Mon Mome won by 10 lengths at 100-1 starting price. The trainer, Venetia Williams, is a former jockey who had to retire after breaking her neck in the Grand National. :ooh:
4th Apr 2009, 16:22
Bet on Mon Mome now at best odds of 158-1 with Betfair
(from:- Mon Mome Odds | Mon Mome Grand National Form (http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/Mon_Mome.htm) )
4th Apr 2009, 16:33
Good old Venetia Williams. What a lovely Lady.
Well done! Pity I didn't have a couple of quid on it!!!
4th Apr 2009, 16:37
I bet Mon Mome both ways as a long shot! £127 back from a £2 bet :cool:
Wish I had stuck a couple of hundred on it.
4th Apr 2009, 16:42
Too late now Al!!!
4th Apr 2009, 18:14
One of mine fell at the first place. That'll teach me for picking one because it had an 'interesting name'
4th Apr 2009, 21:54
"You can also safely eliminate all the high priced 66/1 and above horses."
Thank god didn't take your advice, £2.00 e/w on the winner, nice £254 back from Skybet!
Though to be honest, only put it on because I got it in the office sweepstake, so another £20 on Monday!
4th Apr 2009, 22:21
An old friend of mine, who's no longer with us, had a great betting theory. He would always assume that he was going to win any sweepstake that he entered, then bet the amount he was going to win on the same horse at the bookies. Then, by his logic, he would win a couple of hundred pounds for a £1 stake, or by anybody else's logic, lose about £21.