Was there a pilot boom for jobs after the last recession

[AllInGoodTime]

Just wondering for people who were flying back when we had the last recession, was there a boom or demand for pilots after the 1990's recession. Is there likely to be a boom this time ?

[apache]

yes....
make sure you are ready for it. ie have all your exams done, resumes sent in etc.

[Road Trip]

Not really. At least not in Canada / North America.

Preaty much the opposite. During the recession flight schools kept pumping out Commercial Pilots telling them those old wives tales about retiring pilots ect. So by the time the recession was over for the rest of the world we had a huge glut of 200hr wonder pilots to swarm over the few jobs that started coming available but they got nothing becuase all the more experienced pilots that were laid off and had connections snapped them up quickly. Even the few ramp spots got filled by guys with 800hrs. The 200hr wonders were preaty much left out of any recovery until the 800hr guys made it off the ramp 2-3 years later.


The only boom I've seen since before the 80s was the one we just had briefly for the past 3 or 4 years. And trust me that was a huge boom. Hard to describe what normal is but basically low time is around 1500hrs 1300PIC which might get you a pipe line survey job in a 172. 2500hrs 1500 Multi and at least 500 multi PIC to fly a PA-31.

And a recession well those 2500 hour guys are getting laid off and can't even get work on the ramp.

[Fred Gassit]

Definitely not, the only boom in pilot hiring I've seen in the last 20 years was the one last couple of years, mid nineties was very slow for pilot opportunities, I don't know if that had anything to do with the previous recession tho.

[neville_nobody]

Yeah the only boom in Australia has been in the last two years. Before that it was the usual same old story. Don't be planning on another boom any time soon. All you will see is downward pressure on pay and conditions.

The other issue to consider is how people will get the experience in the future GA is dying, yet all the legal requirements remain, so there may have to be a paradigm shift in the future in how recruitment occurs.

[remoak]

Depends where you are. There was a massive hiring boom after the last two European downturns. During the boom of the late '80s, the airline I worked for in Scotland sent recruitment teams to Australia, Eastern Europe and Canada. There were validations and fast-track work permits on offer for foreigners.

Hiring has been stagnant in Canada for years, the US seems to be similar.

Oz and NZ are good after either an airline starts or expands, or the legacy carriers have a retirement bump.

The most recent forecasts I have seen seem to indicate that overall, depite recessions, the number of pilots will need to double over the next ten years.

[Wizofoz]

The shortage two years ago may have been the most acute, but there was still a pretty good hiring scene in the late 80s and again just before 9/11.

[Capt Claret]

In my perception the only boom time for pilot hiring in my 23 years in the industry, is the one that's just ended. Nothing to speak of after the last recession.

Aviation is one of the first industries to wilt in recession, and one of the last to bloom in the recovery; sadly.

[tinpis]

Hmmm...wonder what caused that little bubble Wiz? :rolleyes:

[Mr. Hat]

A boom like the last one, be it pilot, property, shares ect was a once in a lifetime event. Those that took advantage did so at the best possible time those that didn't won't catch up in their entire lifetime.

Some pilots seized the day some didn't. Some groups seized the day (teachers builders police ect) others didn't (pilots ect).

It's the reality. Now its time to be happy with what you've got and move on from the "pilot shortage".

[sixtiesrelic]

The only booms I know of were early 1960s probably 61 and the recent one the rest of the time it seems theres a trickle to next to nothing.

[Zoomy]

Mr Hat,
I believe that all airlines are gearing up for rapid expansion once the economic crisis ends. When that will be is anyones guess. Aviation is indeed the first to feel the pinch and the last to recover. When it does recover there will be next to no pilots left for the taking. Flying Instructors with experience are scarce, people wanting and being able to afford training, are scarce, in fact I wouldnt be suprised if some training organisations do not survive the current economic climate.
All this leads to jobs galore in years to come. I will leave putting a number on the years to the experts. My opinion though, we won't reach the heights of the last boom for 7 to 10 years.

My two bobs worth, another pilot shortage?, you betya.

[Mr. Hat]

I hope so Zoomy i really do. Aircraft on order will be deferred or cancelled otherwise companies will shut.

Instructing or training to be a pilot these days? Good lord why would you? At least when i went through there were some good conditions to aspire to. Sure the jobs were few and far between but the hope back then was about running a marathon where most would drop out. Now you run a marathon and get very little at the end.

[the wizard of auz]

Was there a boom??? I must have missed it. :ooh:

[Keg]

QF expanded by about 30% from when it began hiring in mid '94 through until mid end of 98. In 3 1/2 years QF took on about 400 pilots to take the total establishment to about 1700.

If that type of expansion occurs again it will result in QF increasing from about 2400 pilots to 3200 pilots. Of course, the reality is that much of QF's expansion these days is done by J* so whilst the expansion will probably still occur, I'd be surprised if much of it is in mainline colours. Sad for all those currently in QF and who won't get a chance at an upgrade before those who joined J* a long time later.

[Aussie]

Out of curiosity Keg, any ship jumping between Jetstar and QF these days?

[Keg]

We've just had some come back from J* at the conclusion of their secondment but I don't know the ins and outs of that. I haven't heard of any going across since the former CP wouldn't release anyone when numbers were tight a couple of years back. The MoU still exists, I just don't know of anyone using it at the moment.

[Towering Q]

Was there a boom??? I must have missed it.

It arrived in YLEO 2 days before it ended, you must have been under a truck Wiz.:}

[the wizard of auz]

Or a Dozer........ or in one. sure as hell didn't make much of an impact on the local pilot fraternity here. :E

[Wizofoz]

Hmmm...wonder what caused that little bubble Wiz?

No, not what I was refering to Tinny!

I got a full time job flying twins in the NW in '87 with 1250 total, then got into Hazeltons in '88 with about 1800. I was accepted into Ansett (PRE-dispute) with 2500.

A few years before, you would have needed 4-5000 to be considered for Hazos, and at least that much to get an interview with AN.

[Tankengine]

Big crash in October 87, about 400 employed by QF from Jan88-91.
Fair recruiting into AN/TN in 88. [I won't go on here:ugh:]

[CharlieLimaX-Ray]

Seen some very interseting times in the industry,

Early 1980's when GA was very quiet the big thing was getting into Coastwatch and racking up heaps of twin time for the Ansett or TAA interview. The airlines then got caught with an economic slowdown and didn't do any recruiting.

Mid 1980's, Qantas started recruiting again as they were getting B767 etc They took a large number of pilots over a few years, which thinned out the gA ranks.

About 1987, both TAA and Ansett ramped up pilot recruiting in a big way and went on the usual rape and pilliage through GA andthe RPT operaters.

In 1988 a company called British Air Ferries arrived in Australia and did a recruiting drive, because they couldn't get enogh pilots in the UK.

Pelair for the Westwind wanted FO's minimum 5000 hours and at least 3000 multi and prior multi crew experience in the late 80's.

In 1989 Hazo's did the big expansion and took a large number of guys from the NT.

Post 1989, jobs were very hard to find.

Kendalls however expanded due to the transfer of work from Ansett and getting a job with them was as good as winning lotto.

NJS, Skippers, Impulse and Tamair expanded in the 90's and gave a lot of guys a start.

Hazo's had another expansion then a winding back of operations.

Kendalls moved into NSW and then a large expansion with the introduction of the CRJ in 1997/8

Then the demise of Ansett and the rise of Virgin etc

[ER_ZZZ]

The point to note is expansion needs cash.

So that means either a company travelling really well, or an investor with some serious money behind them.

Both of the above aren't around at the moment :(.

Hopefully next year things start moving again.