The Bear starts to growl again... [Archive]

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adrian mole

15th Mar 2009, 18:06

I heard on BBC Radio 2 News yesterday that Russia had announced that Venezuela had given them permission to base Bombers there. Russia also stated that they had the same invite from Cuba. Not mentioned in any of the Sunday's today or elsewhere. Did anyone else hear the newsclip?

adrian mole

15th Mar 2009, 18:14

AIDU - Thanks for the update

Hilife

15th Mar 2009, 18:24

Forget Russia, it’s China you need to be worrying about.

Although with England thrashing France and having found a case of Penfolds Bin 389 in the cellar, who cares just now. Hic!

BelArgUSA

15th Mar 2009, 18:32

As far as the anti-missile (supposedly against Iran) to be based in Europe, with radars in the Czech Republic, if I recall my geography basics, it is not too well located for "anti-Iran" defence... and curiously oriented more "anti-Russia". If it was so much "anti-Iran", Turkey always was a long standing NATO member strongly supporting the USA, and better location if you look on a map. I think Vladimir and I had the same geography professors.
xxx
Cuba, Venezuela...? There will be others. Maybe El Salvador after today's elections.
xxx
:8
Happy contrails

vikingdriver

15th Mar 2009, 19:34

Although Turkey would look good if you drew a straight line on a map from Iran to the US east coast, that is not the shortest route.
The Earth is spherical and the shortest distance between two points is therefore an arc of a great circle, you can now easily see why they want to put the kit in Europe.

Maybe we need to re-evaluate our geography funding!:E

Re-Heat

15th Mar 2009, 23:03

China is at least integrated into the world economy so much that they won't want to cause ructions (though the whole world was pre-WWI)...

Russia though is a beast with a chip on its shoulder, which won't take the loss of Empire as well as the UK managed.

BelArg - Eastern Europe works for the best stage at which missiles launched from Iran would be most accurately shot down. Russian missiles would not only be more Northerly, but are at a quite different boost stage to be shot at from there - same issue with Turkey in being too close proximity to Iran.

racedo

16th Mar 2009, 00:04

China making sounds re USN in South China Sea and asking about how secure are US Bonds.

Never assume a foreign power will act rationally and China dumping bonds and not buying any brings the western economies to a standstill.

pr00ne

16th Mar 2009, 00:23

racedo,

"......brings the western economies to a standstill."

Which would then bring the Chinese economy to a standstill!

Willard Whyte

16th Mar 2009, 16:23

Pontius Navigator

16th Mar 2009, 17:21

Actually looking at the map Turkey or Czech Republic either are well placed to track a passing shot with CR about 350 miles off track. The only difference is the flight stage with Turkey in the climb phase, I guess, and CR approaching cruise. A 6000 mile shot however is rather long for Iran I would surmise. The main west European capitals are only about 2500miles and CR is spot on track.

Assuming Russia is the launch site and western Europe is the target CR is again well placed.

Airborne Aircrew

16th Mar 2009, 18:18

Which would then bring the Chinese economy to a standstill!

Wasn't this the basis for Clancy's novel "Debt of Honour"? The collapse of the Japanese economy as a result of a bill in the USA that prevented many Japanese goods being allowed into the USA. The "viable alternative" was a pre-emptive strike on the aircraft carriers in the Pacific and war.

Vage Rot

16th Mar 2009, 22:02

....and I thought that the World economy had been brought to a standstill aready!!

Double Zero

16th Mar 2009, 23:28

The Russians, in my hugely important opinion, are just trying to re-establish themselves for reasons of national pride & to show off / market their engineering prowess, which was under-rated for a long time then took the West by surprise - witness John Farley flying the Mig 29, then recommending we buy it !

John does not say such things for a laugh.

The poster who said ' worry about the Chinese ' was quite right I think, and he echoes the reasoning of ...W.S.Churchill.

Load Toad

17th Mar 2009, 00:41

Which would then bring the Chinese economy to a standstill!

In the short term possibly but China could invest the money it has internally (infrastructure, military etc) and is developing markets in Africa / M.East etc. And - being a one party state with a generally very supportive population (who will be so unless they suffered great hardship) they have a fairly good control of the population. Taiwan is increasingly pro-China as the two governments become closer aligned so...I'd err on the side of caution with the new Big Kid on the Block.

And in the short term China has a lot of cash for social welfare spending if it needed to do it. The US must be what - ~30% of Chinas exports....

elderlypart-timer

17th Mar 2009, 03:02

Which would then bring the Chinese economy to a standstill!

Wasn't it Machiavelli who said that the best way to handle internal dissent would be to find a foreign enemy to blame?

Buster Hyman

17th Mar 2009, 05:19

When they start basing bombers in New Zealand, give me a call!

Load Toad

17th Mar 2009, 09:17

China tends to use publicity of fairly minor foreign 'slights' (that recent auction of the bronze statues as an example) to reinforce the Chinese peoples belief that they are generally not given enough respect though to be fair personally I find the Chinese to be very welcoming, generous and friendly - outside of business obviously! The use of the external 'enemies' certainly diverts some of the attention away from the government. The governments problem is the emerging middle class who are richer, better educated, internet savvy and are either travelling themselves and finding out more about the world and also sending their children to study overseas.

Double Zero

17th Mar 2009, 09:26

The use of external 'problems' to distract thought from home snags is the oldest trick in the book; take Galteiri & Thatcher in 1982 for example, who both gained politically, though Galteiri lost popularity when the inconvenient truth came out, which probably wouldn't have happened if his side won !

Neither was personally involved, and tough luck to the people who died or were injured.

I suspect the Chinese could and would do this on a grand scale...

racedo

17th Mar 2009, 11:00

If removing US as a financial power and military power then China crashing the bond market makes sense.........not rational sense but part of a plan.

China can control internal dissent but using a foreign power as the enemy makes it easier to do so.

As I said don't expect rationality from political leaders.

Load Toad

17th Mar 2009, 12:18

...and of course it's not unknown tor the USA as an example to 'express concern' about developing nations increasing military spending & technologies as an excuse for them to continue to out spend everyone else (isn't it something like more $$ than the next 5 nations combined or summat?) on weapons and the military. It's a rather dull game but one that's going on for the last couple of hundred years on account of penis envy or something.

Thelma Viaduct

17th Mar 2009, 22:27

(isn't it something like more $$ than the next 5 nations combined or summat?) on weapons and the militaryNo, it's the next 45 combined.

Spams have lots of friends around the globe. :ok:

GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU

18th Mar 2009, 09:03

Bearing in mind the Russian plan to re-life their sunshine generators, it’s an interesting time for Brown the Humourless to offer a reduction in ours. Maybe he is a great Visionary!

Gordon Brown pushes for world reduction in nuclear weapons as he makes Iran offer | Politics | guardian.co.uk (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/mar/17/gordon-brown-iran-nuclear-programme)

The UK is to push for a new multilateral deal to reduce the number of nuclear weapons stockpiled around the world, Gordon Brown said today, as he pledged that Britain was "ready" to reduce its own number of Trident warheads

These chaps have kept their eye on the Russian balls for over 20 years (formerly the Conflict Studies Research Centre) http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/arag/clusters (http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/arag/clusters) I stopped reading their Russian stuff 10 years ago as it no longer seemed that relevant. Perhaps I was wrong.

GeeRam

18th Mar 2009, 10:31

Good feature on BBC Newsnight last night on the Russians, including footage and interviews taken on a Russian airbase, incl the new Su-34, and how they have ramped up their montly flying hours etc.,etc.

It's on BBC iplayer now....

BBC iPlayer - Newsnight: 17/03/2009 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00jc39w/Newsnight_17_03_2009/)