Staying, Leaving, Re-Joining?

[H-D]

I am still on track to leave RAF very soon at my 38ish pt. I am in a hold pool for a big airline but expect to be unemployed in aviation for a while.

Obviously a little concerned by what's happening out in the real world.

Heard a few people say that pilots are flooding back into the RAF, but haven't seen any of this first hand!

What are you doing?

Are you still leaving, changed your mind and staying, are any of you re-joining or are you all like me and waiting for the 11th hour to finally decide?

Would be great to know how this current global situation is affecting your decisions. And are people really re-joining?

[juliet]

Unless the job starts immediately stay in. Hold pools are pretty big at the moment, nothing happening in the short term.

Stick with it mate, its a tough old world out there, especially if you dont have a job.

[H-D]

Thanks for advice, I would happily take a couple of years out and have some fun and quality of life. I am just interested in what other's are doing. Are you at an option to leave?

[Jambo Jet]

H - D, I would stay flying if I had the choice; an airline would not be too interested in someone if they havent got a bit of recency.

Lifestyle thing and all that, I'm sure the desky could find you a job nearer where you want to settle.

[H-D]

Thanks again I will be flying just not for the cash.... Right less about me!

Lets get back to my original question...

What is everyone else doing?

And in particular are lots of you re-joining who have already left?

[brit bus driver]

Dare I say, they may also not be too interested in the 'I don't need this, it's just for $hits & giggles...' approach. IMHO of course.

[Truckkie]

I'm staying in as I took an offer of PAS last year.

Stay front-line military flying, keep my ATPL current and re-evaluate after 6 years productive PA service at age 44.

Suits me - have been in for 19 years and still enjoying it - though about leaving at 38 point and bloody glad I took the offer.

Have friends in the holding pool and it doesn't look good.

You could always ask PMA for a re-tour past 38 and have a look later - there's still the PVR option:ok:

[Biggus]

It's all a case of predicting how long the recession/depression will last...

For pilots, when will the airline industry start growing again, for the non-aircrew when will the general economy pick up?

One thing to consider, when the senior neddies are thinking the reccession will save any mass exodus from the military, is that if somebody is considering leaving now, but hasn't put their paperwork in yet, they will not be out for about one year. So it is not so much a case of the state of the economy now, but in a years time.

Alistair Darling is "banking" (to coin a phrase) on the economy starting to recover a year from now, personally I have my doubts...

[Wrathmonk]

Is the PVR waiting time still flexible? I seem to remember the last "bust into boom" mass exodus was slowed by raising the PVR wait time to 3 years (in a non-flying tour as well!).

[H-D]

Brit bus - sorry didn't mean to come over flippant, not my intention.

Wrathmonk - I have no ideas on current PVR waiting times or flexibility of them.

Trukkie - Thanks for your reply.

[winkle]

I wouldnt mind re-joining as a civi instructor back on the Hawk, any news if there will be this option in the future. Hawk 2 1/2Khrs A2 IRE TI and bar. But whatever, I am not doing OO or SDO. :cool:

[brit bus driver]

I'm sure you didn't...would that I were in your position! Maybe I'd take some of the unpaid leave my company are trying to persuade us to take!!

Best of, whatever you decide. FWIW, I deliberated long and hard and - and don't tell anyone - there are still elements I miss. But, on balance, I made the right move. I think if you commit past 38, you cannot position yourself for a second career in a major airline. That's not to say that there aren't (well, were) plenty of jobs out there to suit the 44 year old aviator. My push factor was the prosect of a bunch of (more) time behind a desk at sunny High Wycombe, or a considerably reduced amount of time in a shiny 'bus mostly flying over STC downwind for 09L.

I think you've made your decision...see you in the CRC in a year or so.:ok:

[The Real Slim Shady]

Guys, if you don't have a TR you will struggle to get a job at the mo.

If you are in a holding pool there is no guarantee that they will call you: if you leave tomorrow, you can expect at least 12 months, if not more hanging about waiting for a course.

I know of people with good command time on narrow and widebodies who cant get jobs: with no civvy experience and no TR stay where you are for a few years.

[Front Seater]

H-D

I am all ready to go and have had enough of the AH world thanks - great job, but not for life and Mrs Front Seater is pretty threaders. In answer to your question though, although there is still a pretty good rotary jobs market at the moment(Bond big advert in Flight last week), as well as some over seas options as a civilian, I am just going to watch and endure this rubbish lifestyle for a bit longer as I am too frightened to jump just at the moment (although my CV is with Bond - as is everyone elses!)

I am not alone in my small AH world - as when the recession comes to an end (which many are saying is between 1 and 2 years away) and the job markets really do open up, then I know many colleagues that will leave as quick as possible, in the shortest legal time frame.

It is going to be extremely interesting to watch how the MoD and all 3 Services cope with the potential mass exodus when this recession does end, as I know that I am not alone in just sitting on my elbows watching to see the right moment to jump this sinking ship.

[Evalu8ter]

Front Seater,
Well put. I too have recently had the "stay/go" decision. I was all set for the latter when, upon being offered a job by a major defence contractor, it was suggested that staying put for 3-4 years was a sensible thing to do in this climate. Not only is there likely to be a big "pull" from airlines in 2-3 years (as, I hear, there is a rapidly diminishing number of people turning up at flying schools with the money for a modular ATPL course....) but also the Defence sector as a whole is in limbo awaiting the General Election and the inevitable Defence Review that will follow. If we're still embroiled in AFG during the Review, some sacred cows will have to be slaughtered and that will have a knock-on effect.

The key here will be the attitude displayed by the posters/appointers. If they get cocky and arrogant now, just watch the resentment build and people fly out of the doors when the recovery begins as the military, yet again, finds it on the opposite side to the airline sine wave. If, however, they start acting as genuine "HR" staff now then it could have a positive long-term effect on retention.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Jumping into the carnage of civvy street in 2009 would be barking.

1991/2/3/4 will be as nothing compared to 2008/9/10/11.

Stay in your trench.


WWW

[Stupidbutsaveable]

Things may be a bit different at the moment but I left in the back half of 07. I found my desk officer to be very flexible with my exit date. I started talking to him with just over a year to go and moved my exit date to the right by 12 months in the end. They only actually have to do formal paperwork at 6 months to go so they do have some leaway. Just be aware how long it takes to fit in all the resettlement courses though. It takes longer than you think to process the paperwork and get on the ones you want and you can't start until you have given notice. Took a bit of doing cramming it all into 6 mths.
Feel free to PM me if you want more detail. All the best.

[Yeller_Gait]

I think you've made your decision...see you in the CRC in a year or so.http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/thumbs.gif

Things must be really bad if that is what you think, please do not be so negative, you are a pilot ffs, not an ADO.

Y_G

[jayteeto]

I have a job, thank god!! The heli market is not that good at the moment. We were warned that our unit is up for closure, so I interviewed for a line pilot job on another unit last week, 19 applied, 3 interviewed. I had 5 yrs experience in role, 6000hrs and qualifications up your arm. Didn't get it.
There ARE jobs, but every man and his dog applies for each one. One of the other lads who interviewed but failed like me, is out of the AAC in a couple of months without a job yet. Just be careful........

[MINself]

H-D, I sympathise with your predicament for my tuppence worth I was in a similar position 4 years ago in having to decide whether it was the right time to jump ship or not and looking back I was fairly lucky as I left with a couple of thousand rotary hours and I received a couple of good offers before I my exit date, one of which I took, but what a difference a few years can make! The rotary job markets, and I think the fixed wing job market too, recruitment has slowed up in the last few months as operators batten down the hatches, who knows the pilot job market may even contract over the next year? Yes, there are job adverts out there but where as last year, as in the case of a certain advertised consortium pilot position there were over 30+ over qualified applicants, now there will probably be 40+ even more overly qualified applicants! If I were you I'd certainly consider staying in either until things pick-up or enter into an arrangement with your desk officer on short notice release option? If such a thing exists. Good luck whatever you decide.

[Op_Twenty]

I heard that the poster is implying that if you go for a PVR then he may not be able to let you rescind it. Looks like a lot of people are staying in. Just a heads-up guys, I'm hanging in there as I want the pension the government don't want me to have. Then, when our mutually agreed contract of 16 years is over - I will leave and start another career away from aviation.

[dalek]

If you all look back, six months ago, before the banks dropped us all in it, you would see that a completely unrelated crisis was also developing. That was the peak oil / global warming problem.
If you remember, the price of oil was going through the roof. This was because China and to a lesser extent India were competing for a slice of an oil cake that had already reached its maximum size. Once the banking crisis is resolved, this problem will reoccur pretty sharpish. And China, as the bank of last resort will own all the dollars, euros and pounds.
Unrestricted growth in aviation is a thing of the past. Business and holiday flying will revert to the the levels of the seventies.
Am I certain of this? No. Is it possible or likely??

[Wrathmonk]

Op Twenty

The poster is playing a vary canny game! In recent years anyone who wished to rescind their PVR (or rejoin) pretty much got the posting of their choice (within reason!) and even command. Now, with the ball in the posters court, he can dictate the terms i.e. wait until the individual is pleading to be allowed to stay in then offer him 'that job' he couldn't get anyone else to take (or a swift 6-monther in a dusty hot place). Poster happy, individual still has a job so he is happy (ish). Very much in the same way that some companies are saying take a pay cut and you'll all have a job or get a payrise and I'll make x% of you redundant (unless you work in banking, of course, where you get rewarded for failure regardless!). And as I alluded to before, when (if) things improve in the civil aviation market, he (or at least the big cheese in Manning) can change the rules of PVR waiting times almost at will to ensure an orderly exit.

[Taff-Timelord]

H-D

I am leaving after 20+ yrs, wise move, not sure! However willing to dive in with the sharks in the real world. Plus most of the job offers I have had are immediate start. So being tied to 1 yr notice/ 3 mths PVR etc etc is a bit of a showstopper.

Good luck!

[Dan Winterland]

Jobs in the aviation world have all but dried up. There are a few jobs, mainly contract which require type ratings and experience, but these are getting fewer. There is no doubt that this recession is deep and it's going to take a while to get out of it.

I left in 2001, just before 9/11. I had the dubious honour of being told I was redundant before I had even left the RAF! My new employer (Virgin) had a knee jerk reaction and sacked about 35% of the pilots. But they had gone too far, as the effect of 9/11 was not as bad as anyone feared. In fact, they realised and tried to get some to return, but were suprised to find a lot didn't want to come back. It turns out my job was safe and I took voluntary redundancy, because I had been offered a more promising job.

This situation is very different. 9/11 was about a lack of confidence. This is now a lack of confidence and a severe lack of cash. Actually, 9/11 wasn't so bad partly because of the increased movement of money thanks to a de-regulation of banking suystems put in place to make post 9/11 more palatable. That's what we're paying for now!

Business isn't flying because business is in recession. People aren't flying because they can't afford to. Will it ever recover to previously seen levels? I doubt it. For the last seven years we have been spending money that didn't exist. And when the books are finally balanced, there won't be the money available thet there was. Taxes will be higher to pay for the bank bailouts, the oil price will shoot up when a demand is percieved (people will want to get into commodities as speculation on equities will take longer to recover) and the holidaying public will be in negative equity on thier houses.

A gloomy picture, but leaving now and competing with other pilots who have more hours, typr ratings and experience on type would be a very brave move. And if you are lucky to get a job, you wouldn't feel too secure being on the bottom of any company's seniority list.