Forecast of pilot jobs openings

[BelArgUSA]

Had email yesterday from a young pilot graduate... asking me "what I think"...
His question, as you guess, is "do I have a chance"...?
It is not my expertise, but I can volunteer a few answers.
xxx
Openings with airlines, for pilots in 2009 will be derived from -
xxx
(1) Attrition -
This is the case with "legacy" airlines, or well established air carriers.
My past experience with airlines tells me, it averages 5% of the pilots, yearly.
End of career retirement, early retirement, medical leaves etc.
If you know how many pilots with XYZ airline, you can bank on that.
Many of these airlines, however, factor in that some have pilots on layoff.
Some airlines, it is 5% of their pilots, some might be up to 10%.
Low cost carriers do not have retirement attrition, due to younger age of pilots.
xxx
(2) Increase of fleet requiring new hires -
I doubt many airplanes will be additional to the 2009 fleets.
You and I know that some airlines, in the past, parked new planes in the desert, upon delivery.
Some other airlines will request to delay these deliveries.
So for them, there might be a layoff of 5 to 10% of their pilots.
xxx
So, there will be 10% (wild guess) of pilots unemployed.
Now, ask yourself how many pilots get on the job market, from training.
And how many have been selected (holding pool) by these airlines.
And how many need to be recalled after layoff by these airlines.
It takes minimum 4 to 5 pilot crews (8 to 10 pilots) to operate 1 airplane.
That is based on rosters, vacations, sick leaves... etc,
I do not factor in, the few airplanes still requiring flight engineers.
xxx
The above is basis of the equation. I have no numbers. You might have them.
Have no idea how many new graduates from training.
But by now, 5% of all pilots of many airlines, are in the streets.
In the USA/Canada, I heard about 2,000 as a number on layoff.
Europe, would be 1,000.
South America, 1,000 as well.
Africa, a few numbers. Asia might be hiring (attrition and new airplanes).
Australia/NZ, maybe a few openings...
In rough numbers, air traffic has decreased some 5 to 10% so far.
xxx
Wannabees, how about asking your FTOs "how many graduates last year"...?
They will proudly tell you how many "succesful" fATPL they qualified.
Of course, not to say how many are looking to get a job...
xxx
Another of my recommendations -
Grab any flight job you can get - I mean ANY flight job...
And keep on applying and sending CVs... until thiings get better.
xxx
:ok:
Happy contrails

[zwarriorz]

Thanks for the valuable information and they make alot of sense, well, at least to me.

Despite the fact that we are facing a worldwide economic recession and a shrinking airline industry, one airline worths looking into at this time is Etihad Airways because
1) They have a global cadet pilot programme with bond.
2) They are expanding very fast, doubling its size every year (according to wikipedia) and they simply need alot of pilots to operate their planes.
3) It is founded and backed by the UAE government and they have been paying everything with cash, so job security wouldn't be a concern.

From my last visit to their website, they just closed applications to the cadet pilot programme because they have gotten way too many applicants than they need. However, they are still hiring direct entry first officer and captain for A320, A330, A340 and 777.

Just my two cents, hopefully some folks will find this useful. =)

[redsnail]

A couple of things I use when trying to work out who's employing come from reading Flight International's employment section.

I look for ads calling for ground engineers.
I also look for ads calling for sim instructors/TRI/TREs.

If the airline is expanding, they'll need all of them.

Now, specifically for the low houred guys. Do a lot of research on past hiring practices. Have they ever hired low houred guys and from where? Their own scheme or not. If not, good.

The UK CAA specifies a ratio of low houred (ie inexperienced) to experienced pilots. So, if you see an airline that has hired low houred guys previously (ie a few years ago) hiring experienced guys, get your CV in. They will eventually get to you.

If on the other hand, the airline's been hoovering up low houred guys already and you haven't got your CV in, it's possibly too late. (Unless it's a pay to train sort of deal. :yuk: )

Never turn down a flying opportunity. It is much easier to get another flying job if you already have one. Contacts are vital.