Which way do you see North Sea flying going?

[helimutt]

So we're in a 'bit of a downturn' at the moment. Which way do you think the offshore helicopter industry will go. Northern and Southern North Sea (Oil and Gas). Oil has just been forecast to drop to $30/barrel by one 'expert'.
Recession deepening and looking likely to last until 2010-2011 at least. House prices falling further a distinct possibility. Higher unemployment everywhere.

Will the offshore companies cut back or will things remain as they are? Just wondering what other folk think will happen over the next couple of years.
Are they likely to want to invest in new aircraft at great expense when there is great uncertainty?

[Impress to inflate]

I can't see OPEC letting oil drop that far, they have already looked at dropping production to raise the price of a barrel. Even if oil was to start running out, they still have to de-commission all those platforms under the UKOOA agreement, right to the sea bed !

[topendtorque]

Howdy,
Here is an email that lobbed up here just recently (as below) that may interest you technocrats, or seers of doom and gloom for the helicopter oil indutry. The sender who is based stateside and closely related, travels the world installing "bits" into nuclear power plants (usually new ones) and some fossil fired stuff as well.
cheers tet

G'day,
Well I though this is interesting. A new nuclear potential for energy.
Just when you thought you know about U238 and U235 reactions somebody
introduces a whole new system.
Australia has large reserves of thorium. Some say 25 % of the worlds
reserves. I believe it is not commercially mined as yet - however it is
a by product of sand mining. Oh no! Does that mean the beaches are
radioactive? Sure does.
Regards
----
Right here I feel real sorry for the hairy armpitted sun worshippers. (tet):ugh::{

BANGALORE, INDIA--December 9, 2008--Researched by Industrial Info
Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The recent Indo-U.S. nuclear deal has
given impetus to India's nuclear power development program. As part of
the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2007-12), state-owned Nuclear Power
Corporation India Limited (NPCIL) (Mumbai) has announced the
commencement of site and project work on 12 nuclear reactors to be
developed indigenously. This includes eight 700-megawatt (MW)
pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs), one 300-MW advanced heavy
water reactor and three 500-MW fast breeder reactors (FBRs). The eight
PHWR projects, part of India's Tenth Five-Year Plan (2002-07), was
delayed because of uranium mining constraints. The site study, project
and design, commercial and vendor selection, and construction activity
will take up to 30 months.

The recent nuclear deal has opened up many opportunities for the
country. India has developed a three-stage nuclear development plan.
Stage I will consist of the commissioning of natural uranium heavy water
moderated and cooled PHWR. Plutonium will be obtained from the spent
fuel. The second stage, to be fired by plutonium, will consist of FBRs.
This stage will also breed uranium-233 from thorium. The last stage of
the plan will develop power reactors from thorium and uranium-233. The
nuclear development plan will take forward India's commitment to develop
thorium-based reactors and thorium fuel cycle.

The thorium fuel cycle is a nuclear reaction in a thermal or fast
reactor between thorium-232 and uranium-233. Thorium is the fertile base
and uranium is used as a fissile fuel. Thorium-232 absorbs a neutron to
become thorium-233. Then, thorium-233 emits an electron and an
anti-neutrino to form protactinium-233. Protactinium-233 then emits an
electron and an anti-neutrino to form uranium-233, which is then used as
a fuel.

Although global uranium trade is opening up, using thorium is a
commercially viable option for India, as it has the one of the largest
deposits of thorium in the world. India has 363,000 tons of thorium
along its eastern and southern coasts. Uranium deposits in India total
about 78,000 tons. Thorium is a naturally available element, exhibiting
some radioactive properties. It is considered a safer alternative to
uranium as it helps decrease nuclear waste. The most naturally occurring
form of thorium is monazite, which contains up to 12% thorium oxide.
There are known reserves of 12 million tons of monazite in the world.

In 2002, India began to design and develop a prototype fast thorium
breed reactor (FTBR). The reactor uses uranium that is discharged from
other nuclear reactors along with thorium to form a fertile mix.
Plutonium is used as a "seed" to fire the nuclear chain reaction. FTBR
technology is among the first to use the concept of thorium breeding. In
a nuclear reaction, when compared to uranium, the consumption of thorium
is slow. This reduces nuclear waste by 50%. There is also a global
concern on the extensive development of uranium-based reactors, as they
produce a plutonium component that is used in nuclear weapons.
Thorium-based reactors eliminate this process. Thorium can be used in
existing reactors with little or no change to the design.

Though NPCIL presently generates only 4,120 MW of power through nuclear
reactors, this figure is expected to touch 22,000 MW in the next five
years. It has 17 reactors operational presently, with another five under
construction. NPCIL is also identifying sites in coastal areas of the
country to set up 25 to 30 light water reactors by 2030.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is a marketing information service
specializing in industrial process, energy and financial related markets
with products and services ranging from industry news, analytics,
forecasting, plant and project databases, as well as multimedia
services

[rotordude]

topendtorque - Interresting article but I really don´t see how this will affect the helicopter oil industry.

Thorium will never replace oil due to the fact that oil has more than one application. Thorium might be a contender to Uranium, but if you on the other hand still wanted to produce WMD, I´d stick with Uranium.

The oil price will come back up again, I´m sure.

[OffshoreHeli]

So many gloom and doom merchants out there. I have no doubt the north sea will see me into the grave as they are always developing new ways to extract oil. Then of course we can all move over to the Atlantic for it's oil.

[T4 Risen]

With the high demand for rigs that the north sea has seen over the last couple of years, i was under the impression that the oil drillers had booked ahead for years of exploration/ production, surely this will help to carry things through for a while and looking historically at other recesions, the north east never seems to do as bad as the rest of the uk.

Oil priced are bound to return in a short time and we will be back to complaining about the cost of petrol food heating etc.

T4

[Camp Freddie]

helimutt,

Oil has just been forecast to drop to $30/barrel by one 'expert'.

these will be the same experts that in july when the oil price was $140/barrel were forecasting $200.

who knows it may go to $30 but i am sure it will be nothing to do with any "expert"

regards

CF

[Brilliant Stuff]

I joined Bond in '99 because they never had to fire or make redundant any of their employees i.e. Jobsecurity. I don't know what it is like today to work for Bond, but considering how CHC operate making people redundant on Friday and hiring on Monday all i can say based on this limited knowledge is get a job with Bond. :}

[200psi]

I would like to see North Sea offshore flying going......................to Australia

[SASless]

There was a time when Bristow never laid anyone off....or would give "gardening leave" to those that wanted it to prevent having to lay someone off.

[heliski22]

Must have been some time, that!!!