Some basic job stats............

[Okavango]

I put this info on another thread but it's probably worth it's own discussion. I'd be grateful for any other views - if my figures are correct, hopefully they'll be useful to others.

Basic stats show ~12000 jobs in the UK. Allowing for natural attrition this suggests about 200-300 jobs for an average year with no expansion or retraction (which unfortunately we find ourselves in for the forseeable future, so it can be assumed, as is being experienced, that there are next to no jobs for a while). With 1200 new CPL/IR's issued per year (CAA figures), is it any surprise that some people struggle to find jobs and it takes a while to get employed. For the average newby at a time with no expansion using the above figures, this should be typically 5 years (some may be lucky, but then others will also be unlucky). This should be assumed from this very basic research and all this talk of 'I haven't found a job after 2 months' ended. People should enter this career with their eyes open and with the correct desire - to fly whatever, not to instantly become an airline pilot. Any views appreciated.

[Aerospace101]

The truth of the problem is that out of those 1200 CPL/IRs each year only a small proportion have what the airlines are looking for. Too many wannabes go into training without proper careers advice & personality/aptitude testing etc.

This comes straight from the mouths of one of the top of GAPAN and a UK regional airline head of recruitment.

Sadly, during training their schools wont tell them they're unsuitable for this career and are happy to take their money!

[Upslope]

All the luck in the world for following your dream......... but hand on heart, I seriously wouldn't want to be a newbie now.
Even two or three years ago, when things were booming, it was difficult getting that first start. Now in the current situation which according to all sources is just the tip of the iceberg, it will be almost impossible.
In my company, we get inundated every week with CV's and the only ones getting looked at are upwards of 2500TT and type rated. We are not even taking recommendations from existing staff anymore for anyone with less then the above.We could tile the entire hangar with CV's from 200hr guys and girls and we're not even recruiting and won't be for a long time to come.What you have to remember is that there is a huge pool of experienced and probably type rated people available at the moment.

I'm not telling people to give up the dream, just sit on it for a while. IMHO there will be little or no chance of recovering the massive layout for at least five years.

Sorry to be the prophet of doom, but thats how it is airside at the moment. We're all worried about our jobs.

[BerksFlyer]

is it any surprise that some people struggle to find jobs and it takes a while to get employed.

Not only that, but many fail to ever find employment.

[C195]

I agree with the above. I have friends with well in excess of 1000 hours who are looking for work with the airlines. Flight instructors, twin piston pilots etc. Then there are the pilots who have lost their jobs with the likes of XL, Zoom etc.

So, in my opinion, all the new CPL/IR holders have some tough competition, especially those who have 'graduated' but not kept flying and therefore current. If I were recruiting people for type rating courses, I'd prefer to take pilots who just passed their IR or MCC and were current. Of course, I'd first be looking at the pilots with hours and experience in commercial ops as they would present less of a training risk and take less time to be on line.

Time to command would also be an issue, especially for the turboprop operators.

[C195]

Further to my previous post, have you considered how many ATPL holders are currently looking for work in the UK/ Europe?

I know that many airlines let their F/O's take the ATPL Skill test when they have reached the required experience.

[doctordoom]

Its all about who you know not wot you know in this game :ok:

[Tootles the Taxi]

C195

I know that many airlines let their F/O's take the ATPL Skill test when they have reached the required experience.

What's an ATPL Skill Test? JAR-FCL ATPL issue is based on experience.

In principal the ATPL holders will be encompassed by yourpilots who have lost their jobs with the likes of XL, Zoom etc.

[pilotmike]

What's an ATPL Skill Test?
It is a skill test for issue of an ATPL. See LASORs.
JAR-FCL ATPL issue is based on experience.
... and a skill test.

[shaun ryder]

Its all about who you know not wot you know in this game

That is certainly true down your neck of the woods doctordoom!

[Fuel Crossfeed]

"Its all about who you know not wot you know in this game"

I think I would go with the following :ok:

Its all about who you know AND wot you know in this game

[wobble2plank]

The, 'OMG it's scary' ATPL skills test consists of an LPC plus ........ a manually flown ILS :eek: (shock, horror)

Hardly a ground breaking departure from the standard LPC/OPC schedule. The rest is purely meeting the flying hours requirements and having the sim instructor tick the relevant box on the LPC form. Add to that the usual financial bung chucked at the CAA to issue a smelly green plastic folder and some dodgy printed sheets of paper.

Many airlines REQUIRE the FO to take the ATPL skills test as soon as possible otherwise a pay freeze is applied. Also any LH FO will require to be a fully qualified ATPL holder on 3 crew LH sectors where the Captain is scheduled bunk rest and he/she is nominated as the Captains relief. ( :eek: no pun intended).

As to experienced crews floating around, there are alot of them! It seems to be that the current rating to have for SH is and Airbus rating and for LH it would seem to be 777 or the 787 when it comes.

[plumponpies]

Wobble2plank is right. A 73 rating at the moment is next to :mad: useless, especially in the UK.
777/320/330...loads of jobs abroad.

[adverse-bump]

i cant wait to do my raw data ILS in the sim! that little piece of plastic (aka FD) has been ruling my life for far to long!
:}:}:}:}

[Okavango]

I thought I was being helpful there with job stats. Next time others want to be helpful and stay on topic - how about creating a new thread to discuss ATPL's skills test etc? Maybe that's just common sense........!!

[wobble2plank]

I thought I was being helpful there with job stats. Next time others want to be helpful and stay on topic - how about creating a new thread to discuss ATPL's skills test etc? Maybe that's just common sense........!!

Don't get your knickers in a twist so quickly, it was just a reply to someones question. If you get the job your 'stats' thread is looking for then it could be relevant to you in the future as well so don't kick someone for asking or answering.

Nothing in this job is black and white, remember that.

To assist in your 'stats', just about all major carriers have posted either losses or profit reductions of up to 95%. There are recruiting freezes in place for most airlines as the full extent of the downturn becomes known. Airlines collapsing means a flood of type rated, qualified aircrew onto the market. FTO's are feeling the pinch as customers with spare cash are thin on the ground. Add to that that the recruiting drought means that FI's are not moving leads to a loss of new FI uptake. The business jet community is currently holding its own but stagnant.

That's the bleak, now onto the upturn.

This recession will end. The airline industry, akin to the housing market, has been in dire need of 'natural adjustment'. Far too many carriers competing on the same routes, often running at a loss. Consolidation will see the bigger carriers moving forward into a new age of aviation. When this comes, and 'for the stats' no one knows when that might be, the system will start to move again. If it takes 18-24 months then, for the newbies, add on another 12 months for all of the previously redundant, qualified crews to be re-employed.

Flying, of any sort, commercially is a cyclical industry. We have just hit an economic iceberg that has sent our industry to the ocean floor like the Titanic. The upturn will come, it just might take a little longer than many expect. Until it does, welcome to the commercial aviation war of attrition.

[potkettleblack]

The 1200 figure you quote is for UK CAA issued JAA licences. To get a better flavour for the amount of competition out there you need to factor in all the wannabes from the rest of the EU that are interested in heading to the UK for work. Then add in all of those from previous years still in the mix trying for the first job. And as pointed out above add into the equation those furloughed with a type rating and desperate for work and it gets a big number. Oh and if you really want to be depressed then think of all those lucky people that are married to an EU citizen or have ancestry rights and are getting laid off all across the world and could possibly be heading your way.

[Okavango]

Pot - yes I agree. I keep it simple by just looking at the UK market (you could also arguse that there are other jobs outside the UK that UK pilots could go for otherwise). Either way, these fairly simple facts show a situation that people seem to almost want to ignore or pretend that they're not real.

[theWings]

And yet still it happens. 250hr guys get airline FO positions (God knows there's so much more to a flying career than that, but that's a different topic). So for all the doom and gloom, these things are, no matter how unlikely, possible.

So what'cha gotta ask yourself is: am I feeling lucking? Well, are ya?!

the Wings