Enough negativity. Projections please...

[DB777]

Ok, all of us wannabes on here no how bad the industry is at the moment. Anyone who's done any research or spent any considerable time on this website will know what they have/or will let themselves in for in the pursuit of becoming an airline pilot.

I, for one, started the pursuit 4 months ago, my PPL.
Obviously I haven't had to sacrifice alot yet, just an operation on my eyes and alot of time digesting all the negative & positive comments/feedback here- which I think has been worthwhile.
I, like most wannabe's have gone through a spectrum of emotions trying to determine whether I should pursue it fully or not.
In my case, it's not for a salary, I co-run a reasonably successful business which, in time, could well protect me financially.

One common statement I keep reading on here is that the majority of people (at any level) agree that flying is 'in the blood', be it a 8000+ hr Cpt or a 8hr ppl student. The decision to achieve this goal isn't always based on common sense and logic – I don't doubt that, like me, most believe it is written in the stars, and that it's a case of doing your best to achieve it WITHOUT sacrificing everything else you care about in life. Which, having read many posts, is certainly part of the process.

After initially proving to myself (and my instructor) that I truly have the aptitude to be a pilot, I for one, feel that if I research this enough, speak to enough people/pilots, plan it carefully and time it correctly I might be in with a good chance.

Something we can't predict is the future, I know that, yes we're in a downturn, but what can us 'wannabe's' expect in say 3 or 4 years time? (Roughly the time i've given myself to train!).
Certain members on this site, reply to us wannabe's and quite rightly fill us with dread, which I think is not necessarily a bad thing – knowing how it was and how it is now is all part of researching it, but what are the projections?
For example, with so much talk of low hour fATPL holders having to by or fund there own TR's as well as the 'paying to fly' schemes i've read about, could this be soon deemed as standard practice?

What sort of industry climate – employment wise, can we face?

Any feedback, on any level, is greatly appreciated

DB777

[Prophead]

Well it really depends on whether wannabes are going to refuse to pay anymore than they need to for an fATPL.

The problem is the role of junior FO is changing from being a necessary company cost to a way of saving or actually making money for some airlines. Depending on how bad the industry gets we may well see more 'Pay to be a pilot' programs.

You also then have companies making more & more money out of the fATPL training by making false promises. Now we hear of FTO's promising jobs to people who have already parted with a huge sum if they will just pay another huge sum.

When wannabes stop being a 'cash cow' to milk then things may improve but dont hold your breath.

[newb737ng]

Negativity or no negativity I'm jumping right in to this career. After having a PPL for about 10 years ive decided now at 27yrs old that flying is what i really want to do.

I have just enrolled for my cpl and will be starting at the beginning of '09.

Unfortunately at my age I don't have the time to wait for the economy to bounce back so i'm just jumping in - I know many will think this is foolish but I know that this is really what i want to do. I would rather fly (anything) than continue with the desk-bound job that i have now.

[ChrisLKKB]

If flying was in the blood you'd be a bird.

Having the right money is more important that having the right apptitude when it comes to being a pilot. It's equally as likely that this is what your instructor sees. Students are instructors lunch tickets.

If you want to fly regularly for the next few years then you'll need lots of money. It's very unlikely that you'll find someone to pay you to fly.

If you don't want to hear negativity, don't ask the question, we are in very negative times.

If you want a projection my personal guess is that you wont see any sort of improvement for at least 3 years.

Paying for TRings and paying to fly was becoming increasingly 'more standard' but not necessarily standard practice.

This slow down may change things in the long term. (it may not though, it depends how many people are willing to throw loads of money into trainning)

All this is and many other opinions are being covered in the 'Growing Evidence' thread.

Sorry but this is the reality, anyone claiming otherwise is living in cloud cuckoo land.

[preduk]

DB777 it's an excellent post, I agree with your conclusions on it all but I also need to agree with Prophead, the more we help fund Ryanair's cheap flights (along with other airlines) the harder it's going to be for us wanna be pilots.

We must be one of very few occupations that pays for all of their training themselves.

[PosClimb]

Anyone can be a pilot.

It's just a matter of how much money you have.

If you don't mind working for free, and paying some company like Eaglejet a very large sum of money, you could be behind the wheel of the shiny airplane in no time...

[hughesyd]

Im not sure the fare paying public would be entirely comfortable with that view if it were true do you!!!:eek::eek:

[PosClimb]

I'm afraid it's very, very true.

But the fare paying public wouldn't really care... all they care about is cheap seats....

[Bealzebub]

A bit like climbing a mountain I would imagine, the key to success is careful preparation and planning, physical fitness and a degree of luck. It doesn't matter about "being in your blood", or "sacrifices" or "faith" or "dreams" or other flowery nonsense. Save that for the biography.

The reality is that there are boys and girls sitting at their school desks at this moment who may never have given a flying career a second thought, who in 5-10 years time will be flogging their way back and forth to airports around the globe, as part of their daily professional lives. Similarly there will be people who decide at an earlier or later stage of their lives that this is a career they want and feel able to embark upon.

Firstly, there is a medical standard, and although there is some fluidity in this regard, if an individual cannot obtain certification, then further progress is practically barred to them.

Secondly, there is the research. Understanding the reality and nature of the career they are seeking to embark upon. Within this phase lies such things as experiencing flight, determining what qualifications will be required. Assessing the risk for themselves (financial, ambition, other career options, time requirements, fall back options, contingencies, etc.)

Thirdly, there is the planning phase. Raising the necessary finance, seeking out the best training, having financial contingencies arranged, arranging "base camps" and safety "caves" where you can stop and take shelter if and likely when circumstances start to work against you. Finding people who can assist and support where possible. Assessing a sense of self awareness, so that you can maintain the requisite levels of determination, flexibility, adaptability, common sense, and preservation. The most sensible will always leave themselves with an escape route.

Forthly, There is the expedition itself, where all the preparation and planning is put into practice. It is here that success or failure will depend on how how much effort went into those prerequisites as well as a significant element of luck. Setbacks will not be unusual and many people will fall by the wayside, either permanently or to try at a later point in time. It is certainly true that (of those who succeed) some individuals will take longer to reach their eventual goal than others. The reality at this stage is that those who were poorly prepared and equipped or adaptable or unlucky, will fail no matter what their "dream" or what "was in their blood".

Fifthly, success and achieving any ambition is the reward or high. Whatever the climate or however long it might or might not take, there will be a proportion of those who started out, who will make it through. Of course it is at this level that having achieved the goal, reality starts to set in. Hopefully the earlier research will have prepared the individual for the career they have embarked upon, but it is now that the career really starts, and often it is a lot more mundane than the more exciting phase of achieving the opportunity. The prospects at this point are like many other careers. They include advancing your position through further education and experience. Maintaining your employment and your professional standards. Having the resources of your employment to get on with other aspects of your life.

It is certainly true that there will also be rare individuals for whom luck will allow them to survive poor planning and preparation when others don't. Conversely there will be those who are rich enough to have a helicopter to take them to the top of the mountain. However for the 99% of other wannabees this is the reality.

[JohnRayner]

......

I think everyone that wants to be a pilot but hasn't thought it through fully yet should read something like this.

Marvelous post, really good analogy.

:ok:

[eikido]

Bealzebub, this is the second time you make a post that gives me the shivers. I love how you are absolutly open minded. I'd persume you are a wonderful person to be around.

Another standing ovation! :D:D:D

Eikido

[portsharbourflyer]

A number on here seem to be critcising self sponsored type ratings and pay for line training schemes. But while I don't necessarily approve of these schemes, I would say when you start to look at the figures from a financial point of view these are not any worse than been stuck in a low salary turbo prop job with a three year training bond.

Consider when I took the plunge to full time instructing I probably took a 30,000 pound a year pay cut, infact for several months when I was a full time instructor I often had to rely on credit cards to cover monthly outgoings. So with hindsight would I have been any worse off spending 30,000 at Storm or Eaglejet, there was no guarentee that instructing would lead to a job or that paying for time on type does, but 300-500 hours on a 737 or 320 would certainly have been more useful on the CV than a couple hundred more hours of SEP time.

Prophead: "the more we help Ryanair fund cheap flights" think about the number of flying jobs Ryanair has created, I have had many of my colleagues go to Ryanair and after six months the pay deal there is quite reasonable, you will build hours very quickly on a very common type, so for a 250 hour fATPL pilot it is actually a very good opportunity. The hours built at Ryanair will soon put you in a position to pursue well paid ex-pat contract work.

Bearing in mind at Ryanair with in 3 to 4 years you could be looking at a command so you will soon recoup the cost of your training.

One of the only industies where we have to pay for all your training, if you reverted back to the days of sponsorship then flying would be for the ex-military and a few selected for cadetships, be grateful there is the opportunity to self fund your training. Remember no-one forced you to do this.

[Prophead]

portsharbourflyer,

I never said anything against Ryanair, your quoting someone else. I actually agree with you. I think Ryanair is a great place to go. As you say you will build experience quickly. I dont quite understand the need to pay you peanuts at the beginning when you have financed your training yourself but afterwards it seems like a good deal.

What i hate to see is people being taken advantage of. We now hear about integrated students being contacted by their training provided after they have their fATPL to be asked for even more money. Airlines using companies such as Eaglejet to get crew that have actually paid to be there. This is a job at the end of the day.

I dont want to see full sponsorship schemes return. As you say the only people getting jobs will be the ex military and the 21 year olds with a degree. What we do need to be careful of is it becoming just a job for the rich.