Is There A Recession In The Flight Training Industry?

[Ronnie1982]

I attended the Flyer Show on Saturday and, as I’m contemplating doing a full-time course, I was sniffing round the major schools to see if there was any sign of low course numbers which might translate into course price reductions. However, the consensus was that bookings are holding up well.

Given the sentiment here on PPRuNe, I was surprised by this news; I was expecting the opposite.

Is that all market BS, or is it true?

Are you currently training and, if so, how many students have there been on their recent courses, and which school are you with?

[TheBP]

I don't think many schools would come out and admit they're quiet, unless they had to. But honestly, I don't know the answer to that one.

I'm at a small aero club locally, and whilst having only just started I've already seen a couple of people wander in and ask about training courses - albeit PPL level as this one isn't known for its commercial training.

There was a thread recently on the Flight Instructors & Examiners forum which might be of interest, http://www.pprune.org/flying-instructors-examiners/334426-so-how-trade-during-downturn-busy.html - draw your own conclusions!

[preduk]

People that will be going onto these courses in the next couple of months will have already organised the funds etc. before the economy collapsed, some may not but I don't think you will see a major effect until next year, thats if things don't get better.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm not hearing anything other than full courses at the large FTO's.

I shouldn't be expecting discounts anytime soon.

WWW

[a797]

Really crazy....anyone starting training now could come out and the only airline hiring will probably be ryanair. So you can look forward to paying 30k for a job which statistically you have around a 25% chance of passing the sim assesment.

The rest can look forward to a couple of years queuing for the dole. FTOs must have some really great sales people.

The mind boggles.

[Aerospace101]

The mind boggles.

- yeah exactly, because theyre all ruled by their hearts

[gadude]

quote ""
The mind boggles.

- yeah exactly, because theyre all ruled by their hearts""

no there not ruled by there hearts, there ruled by dollars to make"


I don't know what it is like over there, i am down under, but i am sure it won't be to much different.

Here you see glossy posters and ad's to tell you that you should train with them because they are the best and prepare you the best for airline industrie, well that is just bs.

down here people won't be able to apply for any small airline untill they have like 1500 hours in there log book with a couple/few 100 off multi IFR.

FTO's are a buisines. just like Mc Donnalds. Mc Donnald sell Hamburgers. You buy one and what you do with it is up to you.

FTO sell pilot licences. they sell you one, thats all they care about, and what you do with it is up to you.

Just my 2 cents worth.

Dont let it hold you back from flight training tough. You train because you have an interest or pasion for flying. If you are going to let the economy try to make up your mind you will never achive your dreams.
By the time you have done your training who know's what has happend in the economie or other factors. If some other idiot makes 9/11 look small than there is likely a change you wont be flying any time soon.
just go for it mate. :ok:

[a797]

You cant compare FTO's to mcdonalds. The day mcdonalds start charging 80k for a big mac is the day that comparison becomes valid.

The sales people at FTO's dont seem to give a **** that they are potentially ruining peoples lives.

[Frankly Mr Shankly]

a797

The sales people at FTOs are there to sell their product. No one is holding a gun to the head of wannabees. If people want to buy their product in these uncertain times, then foolish in my opinion yes, and they should take heed of the warnings given countless times on here...however if theyre determined to go ahead, then that's their lookout isn't it surely???

The sales people are hardly going to say "listen mate, I wouldn't bother if I were you..." and you wouldn't expect them to either.

[MartinCh]

to give a **** that they are potentially ruining peoples lives.

Well, like junk food isn't able to ruin someone's life by CHD, obesity, lower life expectancy, emotional issues of persons being too fat to pull a bird or getting laid, indirect discrimination etc.

I pretty liked gadude's comparison. I'm just heli pilot in the making (over few years, sadly), but have keen interest and follow planks training options (and generally scour PPRuNe all around).

I'm no fan of integrated 80k cost schools. If there was something reasonable in the rotary world with less draconian feel to it, maybe.

I can feel for the youngsters craving for airline career/flying for living/having that Captain status/whatever does their kicks, seeing years of saving as waste of time (AND LOSING OUT ON SO MANY 100Ks OF SALARY THEY WON'T EARN BECAUSE OF WORKING IN CRAP JOBS - WHAT A LAUGH). I feel like that every day I hear the police Eurocopter above the city. I'm 1/4 or 1/5 there in my training hours wise, but 3-5 years until actually getting FI/CFI rating and the elusive first instructing job.

Different training, market, employment opportunities etc. You know..

Take it easy guys, get PPL, have fun experience building, do the CPL module etc and so on. That's what I'd do if my wish was to fly for fun and living later on in the fixed wing world. I may as well in the future.

[Ronnie1982]

Thanks WWW for answering the question. Obviously if there were a shortage of new recruits the FTOs are not going to admit it. I was wondering if anyone who has recently started with FTE/Bristol/CTC/OAA/Cabair/etc could give some indication of how many people are appearing on recent courses?

Whether or not going into training now is a sensible option is another question.
Certainly, I'm glad I'm not coming out of training anytime soon and I have sympathies for anyone who is, and is struggling to find employment.

However, what is of concern to me and others in my position is the job situation in a couple of years from now. Clearly, there is a risk that a recession will not be over, or if it is, it's effects are still felt. Clearly, there is a danger that there is a 'backlog' of CPL/IRs still looking for their first job.

On the other hand, if I'm training during a recession, I don't have to look for a job elsewhere. The airline industry is not the only industry that is facing a recession and therefore shortage of jobs. Those saying 'don't do it' assume that it is straightforward to gain alternative employment. In my case, I have saved the funds to pay for my training, I'm going to have to take a year or so out of employment sometime to train, and now seems quite a good time to do that. I could do it part-time, taking breaks to do a bit of training, but again, finding decently paid employment in-between training courses is not necessarily straightforward. How many employers are going to say 'yeh, no problem, take a couple of months off work to train to work for someone else then come back?'

Those are my reasons for considering going into full-time training now. I'm just interested if there are any others? (Although it takes a bit of confidence to admit it here, and risk the danger of being given a hard time!)

[skydiver69]

There may not be a shortage of students yet but there probably will be soon due to the credit crunch. HSBC apparently have stopped the big career development loans and raising finance via a remortgage has become a lot more expensive and with dropping house prices this option looks a lot less practical. The sum total of this will be that fewer students will be able to raise the money for integrated courses which in turn will affect the FTO's.

[Lurking123]

Training machines are invariably out of phase with demand. It wouldn't surprise me if the demand outstrips the training capability in a year or so because some schools will have folded and training capacity will have diminished. The secret is in keeping the system ticking over when demand is poor.

[Aerospace101]

The sum total of this will be that fewer students will be able to raise the money for integrated courses which in turn will affect the FTO's.

It wont affect the FTOs.

They will either drop entry standards/ requirements or get rid of them altogether so they get the same number of people through the door.

It just means that becoming an airline pilot via the large FTOs will be for the elite rich only!

...of course, not compromising safety / training standards and output quality in the process... :=

[Adios]

Prices won't likely come down. Service industries have no money tied up in inventory, so no fire sales occur when sales slow down. They will do exactly what airlines do when sales drop, make staff redundancies or go to the wall. Choose wisely so they don't take your money over the wall with them.

[Slipstream86]

It wont affect the FTOs.

They will either drop entry standards/ requirements or get rid of them altogether so they get the same number of people through the door.

It just means that becoming an airline pilot via the large FTOs will be for the elite rich only!

...of course, not compromising safety / training standards and output quality in the process...

Sounds like sour grapes to me.

Perhaps you are right about FTO's being forced into loosening entry requirements, but I have faith that the ATPL's and skill tests would ensure the quality of the graduates.

[Asrian]

I suppose its because of the $-€-relation and many international students training in the US...is it?

[mafemukh]

There's lots of reasons why it appears that the FTO's are not suffering as they have done in the past. One of the reasons I suspect is that we keep talking "global" recession/credit crunch when, in fact, outside of the Western world, there has been little evidence of it. Yes, there has been a "downturn" in some of the Eastern economies, especially those closely linked with the West but there has been nothing like what we have seen elsewhere. In fact, most of the Eastern economies are in growth, especially in the Middle East, where that growth is double-digit.

What does this mean to the industry? Much of the capacity that has been lost in the West due to downsizing, bankruptcy and cancelled aircraft orders has been offset by expansion in the East with new routes and accelerated aircraft orders. So the manufacturers/FTO's are still obtaining business, much of it from the East. The JAA FTO's are in the best position as the JAA licensing system has become the standard for many of the Eastern countries.

Overall, the World is in a much stronger position now that the U.S. economy is not the only mega-economy; this time the cavalry coming to save the runaway wagon-train will be from Beijing or Mumbai!

[JB007]

I'm not hearing anything other than full courses at the large FTO's.

I find that pretty scary! What was the name of that pub on the Yorkshire Moors in An American Wearwolf In London....Slaughtered Lamb???!!!!

A positive mindset is healthy, but I'd be interested to hear what diabolical spin these schools are telling people...

[eikido]

BTW.
So what if the schools are full and lots of fATPL's are released on to the market at the moment?

How difficult/costly can it to be to maintain the ME/IR and keep it current a couple of years (say 2-3) until the hiring boom?


Eikido

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Keeping your Fzn ATPL CPL IR/Multi alive for 3 years would be costing you close to £10k. You'd be rusty as hell and find a simride very hard due to lack of currency. A boom is much more than 3 years away. Even if it weren't there are now 3 years worth of identically qualified pilots all applying for the same job and some of them are fresh out of training and not rusty.


There is a lag in these things. If schools aren't going bust by this time next year I'll happily put salt and pepper on this hat and eat it.


WWW

[cc2180]

People who just started training cant just stop and collect a full refund.
People who are about to graduate cant just stop either.

This ensures at least a years worth of cadets from every FTO coming onto the job seeking market in an unforgiving climate.


If there ever was a time to delay your training start, this would be it right now. Yet the FTO's are still chock a block with courses booked up for months, with many eager wannabes waiting to start asap and take the place of someone who drops out.

In a years time, we'll have a better understanding of how the economy will fare, and what measures governments are willing to do and in what timescale.

One thing is for sure; the FTO's certaintly wont go bust in the next year or two. Most dont appreciate loaned money, and how long it takes to earn in the real world. It still feels like free money, so for now, wannabes will continue to spend it freely to follow their dreams.


Ofc, the potential is there for things to get much worse. We are seeing HSBC turning away some FTO's (for now), but most can still secure money through other means. Until those avenues dry up aswell, the insatiable masses will still want their flying!


tldr: The economy will have to get much worse before it starts affecting next 'generation' of applicants. Cant say for sure if this will happen.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

For 18 months now I have believed that a prolonged and deep recession at least as bad as 1990 - 1992 would occur in 2008 - 2010. This morning The Times Economics Editor writes this:



November 6, 2008

Deep and lengthy recession takes shape as UK output figures shrink
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor

The threat of a deep and prolonged recession mounted yesterday as bleak figures showed services industries shrinking at a record rate and manufacturing suffering its longest stretch of falling output since 1980...


Deep and lengthy recession takes shape as UK output figures shrink - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5093771.ece)



If you have one iota of sense you will look back at history to provide a guide to the future. You will see 2 major UK airlines going bust in the form of Dan Air and Air Europe. You will note that for Wannabes the employment prospects were virtually nil for over 4 years. Reasonable hiring rates returned in 1995 and a boom didn't happen until 1998.

Much of the recent growth in the UK airline industry has been financed by people spending money their house has earned or by unsecured credit. This source of spending has not only stopped growing but is rapidly shrinking.

Ignore the complacent media and the spinning politicians. This is going to be very bad.


WWW

[eikido]

Thanks WWW.

I suspected something like you mentioned.

I just wanted to hear it from someone who is experienced and knows more than me.

Paying to keep it current and also paying the loan can be very difficult for many.

:p

Eikido

[Aerospace101]

Paying to keep it current and also paying the loan can be very difficult for many.


Yeah, but sadly most dont think about this or even understand what keeping current means.

A large number of students at my FTO a few years ago didnt even know what an airline pilot actually does, or career prospects or even the avergae starting FO salary... This was even after spending over 60K

Sadly the majority dream about graduating and sitting in a shiny jet counting pots of dosh.

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Yep shocking..... ask them to file a flight plan from London to Paris and watch the colour drain very amusing.....normal answer is "doesnt ops do that??? :confused:)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Though to be fair its so long since I filled out a flightplan the colour would drain from me as well. Despite flying to Paris weekly.

House prices and car sales figures are flashing 19ft high bright red RECESSION warnings today. FTO's will follow, 100% guaranteed.

WWW

[expedite08]

FTO's will stay alive as long as people are willing to pay up for courses!

A hell of a lot of people are burying thier heads in the sand over this. I think it must be human nature not to believe in something bad espcially when it directly affects you!

Heard on the radio this morning that the mortgage lenders are on about keeping the prices up, even though the interest rates are now in the descent!! Crack on boys and girls! Keep it up! As that will only help house prices fall even more!! (muppets!!)