Airline career not the way to go if you aim for a long-term job?

[eikido]

What do you fellow wannabes and pilots think about the future and airlines jobs?

I have this feeling aiming for an airline career is not the way to go if you aim for a long-term job.

The oil will soon be a rare substance which will make it cost several hundreds $ per barrel (this is a fact) and we have no alternatives to oil yet for the airline industry. Compare vehicles which has got alternatives such as the electric car which will more likely take a leap over the gas car (and even if we have alternatives, this will take many many years to replace).

Also the CO2 taxes all the airlines has to pay 2012 (Europe).

I'm not talking about 1-5 years. I'm talking 20-30 years>.

This has probably been discussed before, however it is getting more obvious today than before.

Take me for example. I will never ever buy a new gas car. I didn't think this way 1 year ago.

Eikido

[daria-ox]

If that's your dream, you'll go for it.

[Trippple]

There will always be a need for quick transportation, and until something faster comes along planes will adapt to fulfill this requirement. When the oil does run out, I'm sure some kind of genius will find a way to supplement it :ok:

[eikido]

Yea mate, i'm still going to do it. And i'm not expecting to get a job. Getting a job is a bonus and a goal.
My dream is to take the license and fly. And i will.


Eikido

[DarkSoldier]

The boffins are already at work attempting to find alternative sources to jet fuel. I have already come across a number of serious prototypes. Sure, they look a bit different than what we know as a 'traditional' jet but they still fly...I hope

I wouldn't worry about it - by the time oil starts to dry up, which is not going to be any time soon, we will have the next generation of flying machines. This industry is far far too big just to give up on.....

.....but then I once heard that the future of fast long distance transport lies in very high speed underground train systems throughout the globe :uhoh:

[eikido]

I saw a british documentary from 2008 about oil.

The realists estimated the oil reserves to last around 30 years.

The oil producers estimated the oil reserves to last around 100-150 years.
The oil producers will ofcours lie (because of many many reasons) so imagine the real number your self.

So i hope there will be alternatives soon.
Even if there are many alternatives and prototypes, there won't be enough fuel to provide so many flights.

Eikido

[Re-Heat]

I'm not talking about 1-5 years. I'm talking 20-30 years>.
Doom and gloom - the reality is that is will indeed become more expensive, but as other uses of oil decline (cars moving electric perhaps), it will free up capacity for those sources that make more efficient use of it.

CO2 emissions may indeed be traded in the future: even more efficient aircraft will also be built.

Oil decline is not a one-way road to an agrarian economy - it is simply evolution - no different from moving away from heating your home with a coal fire, to gas / electric.

[wilky]

Hi Folks,

I’m sitting on an Oil Platform in the North Sea as I type this, believe me there is more than 30 years of oil left out here alone, never mind the rest of the world and the reserves that have not been tapped yet. The platform I’m on now has been here since 1976, it has just been given an expired field life of 2028, new drilling technologies, surveying etc will ensure oil will be produced for a hell of a long time. It’s all scaremongering about we have very few years left of oil supply, yes it is a non renewable source, but when it runs out we will be running on some sort of hyper biological cow pat.:8

[Re-Heat]

The oil producers will ofcours lie (because of many many reasons) so imagine the real number your self.
No - they simply do not have the technology to extract oil for 150 year, but one day, the technology to extract the 70% of oil that is left in the ground will indeed be developed, and old wells will continue in use.

[JB007]

It's still an awesome job...but 'timing' is becoming the key word...

The question will be what choices you have in, say 5 years, when the economy is back and people are happy to spend money on fATPL's again...

Employers are reducing, making competion huge, even for experienced folk.

[v6g]

I'm inclined to agree with the original poster because of a number of reasons:

1) The era of cheap money has ended. This affected both people's ability to travel and airlines ability to grow.

2) Erosion of T's & C's due to it being perceived as a glamour profession. It's an unconquerable fact that when a lot of people are willing and able to do a job, that job generally pays poorly. There's no reason to expect this trend to end.

3) Technology will soon replace the need for pilots, just as they did for radio operators, navigators & flight engineers. Regulatory authorities are recognizing that pilots no longer need such thorough training with the advent of the MPL. I expect that within 10 years, the next generation of aircraft will still have two seats in the cockpit but for certification one of them will be empty. The First Officer will instead be a "Flight Manager" sitting in an office monitoring 100's of flights.

4) The era of cheap oil is ending. OK, you say, but oil has fallen back to $60 from its high of $140. Yes but....
4.1) The suggestion that "there's plenty of oil left in the North Sea - at least for 30 years" doesn't make sense. North Sea production has been in continuous decline for 10 years already. The 30 years figure assumes that oil will continue to be produced at a constant rate until the very last drop is extracted, and then fall instantly to zero. That is gibberish.

4.2) Global oil production has been mostly flat for the last 7 years (despite record prices). The only region of the world to record any significant gains is Russia, who have now declared that they too have peaked.

4.3) The recent decline in the oil price is due to an expected mother-of-all recessions, once things get going again, prices will soon pick back up. Look what happened on the 23rd September, the biggest one-day gain in the oil price ever, simply because of a short-lived belief that the worlds economic woes were going to be fixed.

4.4) The only super mega-oil-field the world has (Ghawar in Saudi Arabia - a gusher beyond all extremes) is showing signs of old age. The water-cut is rising steadily (that's the percentage of water that comes out with the oil). Reports show that it's nearing the 30% point - that's a problem. The Saudi's say "Just trust us - there's plenty" and deny the problem - but over the last decade they've made enormous investments in secondary & tertiary recovery technology (basically ways to extract the water); a strong indication that they know they've got problems coming. New technology inevitably just stems the decline, nowhere in the world has it led to sustained production increases.

4.5) Despite the recent falls in price, the oil market remains in contango - that is the market expects the future price of oil to be higher than it is today. This trend has remained constant throughout all the recent turmoil.

4.6) The lack of insight and understanding of the problem from the worlds leaders doesn't inspire confidence. At the peak of the oil crisis in the summer, Gordon Brown announced that it was "outrageous that OPEC controls 60% of the worlds oil reserves", well it's simple geology Mr Brown. George Bush seems convinced the answer lies in drilling offshore. Well, there's always a chance that he might find a replacement for the Saudi's Ghawar field, but it's slim.

If anybody can convincingly disprove these points, I look forward to hearing them. Aviation is a fun hobby, and I might even try it full-time for a few years, instructing or bush flying, but I simply can't see it being a viable life-long career for someone currently in their 20's/early 30's.

[Rj111]

Ahh stop with the doom and gloom. Sceince will find a way to overcome the future challenges, aviation is too important to the world's economy.

[fadedfootpaths]

Hello

I am NOT very experienced to debate on this topic but, there are 10000 planes flying in the skies, with almost a few thousand airliners on order and Some planes like the 787, A350, B747-8 in the development stages and all of those planes have a cockpit designed for two pilots. So I am sure there will be a basic requirement for pilots to fly these planes and that all these 10K+ Odd planes wont be scarpped overnight. I do agree Science will bring up new ways of transportation and that the oil rigs are going to dry up soon, but that would be in 30-40 years time and by that time I am sure the youngest group of ppruners here are going to be about 50- 60 years old(retirement time) and It really doesnt matter if people travel using planes or some other alternate mode of transportation. So, Please stop blasting each other and just enjoy whatever flying job you have at the moment.

"Flying truly is one of the most beautiful things you can ever do in life":D:D

I wish all you guys flying out there Happy Landings and Safe Flights:ok:

Arun(FFP)

[wilky]

Nobody mentioned that oil production would increase. Of course Oil is decline, however what you are failing to take into consideration that the reserves that have been drilled and have been producing have a significant amount of oil left. Alot of the North sea fields have been in decline because we did't have the technology or capabilties to extract the remaining oil due to the formations/depth underground. With direction drilling and new deepwater semi submersible drilling rigs these resources are now becoming accessible.
Researchers have received a grant of some 6,000,000 pounds to fund their work into advancing the generation of future oil activity in the Faroe-Shetland basin near Scotland.
Innovative technology will be employed over the two-year project that marks the first stage in what will be a significant new frontier of oil exploration in the United Kingdom. These fileds have been discovered under a layer of Lava that has been impossible to drill through and tap into until now.

But all this must be gibberish, what do I know, I only work in the oil industry.

[fadedfootpaths]

but then I once heard that the future of fast long distance transport lies in very high speed underground train systems throughout the globe


If something like that comes up, I will make flying a hobby and then become a train driver :E:E:E

[eikido]

There is a difference between pessimistic and realistic.

And i wanted to say that v6g completed a lot that i wanted to write but didn't.

Especially this:

4.6) The lack of insight and understanding of the problem from the worlds leaders doesn't inspire confidence. At the peak of the oil crisis in the summer, Gordon Brown announced that it was "outrageous that OPEC controls 60% of the worlds oil reserves", well it's simple geology Mr Brown. George Bush seems convinced the answer lies in drilling offshore. Well, there's always a chance that he might find a replacement for the Saudi's Ghawar field, but it's slim.

You people just wait and see about this. I think many people are too comfortable today and don't realize things can change drastically because the leaders don't (won't) understand many issues.

Eikido

[Lost man standing]

Any time anyone says "this is a fact" it is a strong hint that the piece of information they refer to is complete nonsense.

This is a case in point. People have been talking about us only having 30 years of oil left for more than 30 years now, and known economic reserves are higher than ever. This is not only not a fact, but the actual fact is not known. There are far too many unknown factors in determining the future supply of oil - size of known but unexplored fields, future population, future technology both in oil extraction and efficient energy. In fact for the last 30 years unlimited power generation from fusion has been just 20 years away, so it seems we'll have ten years to build fusion power stations before the oil runs out, then this energy can be used to make artificial fuels.

[wilky]

Lost Man Standing

Bang on!!:ok:

[Slipstream86]

3) Technology will soon replace the need for pilots, just as they did for radio operators, navigators & flight engineers. Regulatory authorities are recognizing that pilots no longer need such thorough training with the advent of the MPL. I expect that within 10 years, the next generation of aircraft will still have two seats in the cockpit but for certification one of them will be empty. The First Officer will instead be a "Flight Manager" sitting in an office monitoring 100's of flights.


Airbus have stated publicly that "their aircraft will always have two flight crew"

[Superpilot]

The oil will soon be a rare substance which will make it cost several hundreds $ per barrel (this is a fact)

How can something be "a fact" if it hasn't happened yet? :hmm:

If you want a sneak peak of what the future might hold for us all in terms of transportation and technology. Just look at the advances of human society between 1800-1900, then 1900-1950, then 1950-2000. Which period saw the biggest difference? What does that tell you in general about human society? It tells you we get bigger, better, sleaker, cleaner and quicker all the time and there can be no limit to our advancement (scientists have failed to find an absolute brain capacity limit to this date). If there was, we'd all be chuffed at being chimps (as I hear you can teach them to fly too) :O

[Reluctant737]

V6G,

Your third point is utter garbage. You take a tally of people who are willing to travel on a pilotless aircraft versus those who are not. I conducted a greatly flawed survey down the pub one night - it's simple, nobody will do it. Everything else you've written is a pretty good prediction however!

Kind Regards, A

[potkettleblack]

Regulatory authorities are recognizing that pilots no longer need such thorough training with the advent of the MPL.

You should use the search function and read up on the syllabus for the MPL. You will then find that the training towards the MPL is tailoring todays pilots for the demands of flying a modern aircraft in a multi crew environment.

[LambOfGod]

In my oppinion... The number 1 priority for oil should be aviation. Cars can suffer the 'extra' weight of batteries.

Although, I still have nothing against anyone who wants a petrol car for a hobby. In the future of course...:ok: When Electric/Hydrogen/(other) have taken to the skies (not litterally).

[eikido]

V6G,

Your third point is utter garbage. You take a tally of people who are willing to travel on a pilotless aircraft versus those who are not. I conducted a greatly flawed survey down the pub one night - it's simple, nobody will do it. Everything else you've written is a pretty good prediction however!

Kind Regards, A


You mean the same way everyone said no to automated trains 100 years ago? The subways are automated in many countries today. Singapore is one example.

The no to automated trains 100 years ago is probably much stronger than the no to automated planes.

Eikido

[Prophead]

The difference being if an automated train has a problem it can be programmed to stop!

[ChrisLKKB]

I have worked in the oil industry and know lots of people still working in it, it's widely considered oil supplies will not run out in our life times. There are still untapped reserves and the technology to recover what is left in the ground is on it's way and in some cases already exists.

I wouldn't worry about future job prospects based on the supply of oil i'd be more concerned about the tree huggers.

[hitmanishere]

:mad: crude oil.....We wont need em anymore to fly in 10-20yrs... Didnt you guys know the A380 already flew on BIO-FUEL.....:}


Airbus tested gas-to-liquid fuels Friday on a superjumbo A380 in the first flight of a commercial aircraft using the potential alternative to regular jet fuel.http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/Next2.4d.jpg
Airbus conducted the trial flight with Rolls-Royce Group PLC, whose Trent 900 engines power the double-decker A380 used for the trip, the Toulouse, France-based manufacturer said at a briefing in Filton, England. Royal Dutch Shell PLC., Europe's largest oil company, provided fuel for the flight, which didn't carry passengers.
GTL plants use natural gas, rather than crude oil, to make fuel that contains virtually no sulfur, including a mixture that can be used in cars. Airbus predicts that about 25 percent of fuel used in aviation will come from alternative sources by 2025.
"GTL is a good precursor to BTL," said Sebastien Remy, Airbus' head of alternative fuels research, referring to gas-to-liquid and biomass-to-liquid options. "When biofuels will be available, yes, of course, we'll use them."
Airbus is competing with The Boeing Co. to develop alternative fuels. Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd., the British carrier controlled by billionaire Richard Branson, will conduct a biofuel test later this month with a Boeing 747. The plane will fly from London to Amsterdam, Netherlands, without passengers in a joint project with Chicago-based Boeing and engine maker General Electric. Co.
Biofuels, made from plant material, are years away from mass production. Shell is trying to develop second-generation biofuels that are more energy efficient and aren't made with food crops. Shell has said it's five to 10 years away from substantial second-generation biofuel production


SO I say lets not eat up all those cows!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:8

[v6g]

Firstly, automated flight:-
Airbus have stated publicly that "their aircraft will always have two flight crew"
and
V6G,

Your third point is utter garbage. You take a tally of people who are willing to travel on a pilotless aircraft versus those who are not. I conducted a greatly flawed survey down the pub one night - it's simple, nobody will do it. Everything else you've written is a pretty good prediction however!

Kind Regards, A

Firstly, I didn't say pilotless aircraft. I said two-pilot aircraft where one pilot is on the ground controlling many others simultaneously. Sure, Airbus may have stated their intentions (and I wasn't aware of that - thanks!) but what will happen if Boeing offered a competing product where, although the plane still had two seats in the cockpit, one of them is empty for the certification flights? The airlines will be free to choose if they have 1 or 2 pilots onboard - and this will be reflected in the ticket price. If an airline today can increase profit by removing paltry things like inflight magazines think of the competitive discounts to be made by being able to operate a fleet with only half the number of pilots.

Technically, there's no reason why it can't be done today. It's just the public perception, and this will change over time - particularly when the tickets are cheaper! Remember the initial skepticism when the Channel Tunnel first opened? No doubt there were the same concerns when air travel first dawned on the world.

And now oil:-
I have worked in the oil industry and know lots of people still working in it, it's widely considered oil supplies will not run out in our life times. There are still untapped reserves and the technology to recover what is left in the ground is on it's way and in some cases already exists.

I wouldn't worry about future job prospects based on the supply of oil i'd be more concerned about the tree huggers.
Nobody is suggesting that oil is going to "run out" in our lifetimes. My suggestion is that very soon, supply will begin to decline (or more likely, enter a prolonged plateau) and be unable to keep up with increasing demand. That means higher and higher prices which means less & less mass transportation. To consider how a high relative cost of transportation might affect our lives in the future, just look back at the past. The 90's brought long-haul travel to the comfortably-employed middle class - Florida became affordable for the annual family holiday as well as an easter trip to Spain to mix with the working class. In the 1980's it was for the families and package holidays. In the 1970's air travel was mostly for the wealthy/upper class with good jobs - once a year to the Med. In the 1950's-60's it was only for the super-rich / film-stars.

Untapped oil reserves are great, but are they anywhere near the size of the giant fields currently in production (eg Ghawar in Saudi Arabia) and will they be able to increase production at a rate that is greater than the decline in other fields (eg the North Sea)?

And I'm not too worried about the environmentalists. Public opinion will rapidly sway once standard-of-living begins to be affected. Notice how you don't hear too much about the environment now the economy has taken a tumble.

crude oil.....We wont need em anymore to fly in 10-20yrs... Didnt you guys know the A380 already flew on BIO-FUEL.....
Bio-fuel is great, so long as the rich world can accept forcing the poor world into starvation by displacing their food production. The food riots in Haiti (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7331921.stm) earlier this year, demonstrated that it's easier to make people in poor countries starve than it is to get us in rich countries out of our SUVs. The question is, in the future, which countries will be the "rich" ones - and how rich is "rich"?

In my oppinion... The number 1 priority for oil should be aviation. Cars can suffer the 'extra' weight of batteries.

Although, I still have nothing against anyone who wants a petrol car for a hobby. In the future of course... When Electric/Hydrogen/(other) have taken to the skies (not litterally).

I agree that ground-based transportation (particularly urbanised commuting) is a gross waste of a valuable resource when there are far better alternatives available. However, for aviation, there is currently nothing that even comes close to a viable replacement for oil.

[BerksFlyer]

The airlines will be free to choose if they have 1 or 2 pilots onboard - and this will be reflected in the ticket price.

The cost to the passengers of having 2 pilots on an average flight equates to a pittance.

Technically, there's no reason why it can't be done today. It's just the public perception, and this will change over time - particularly when the tickets are cheaper!

There is a reason. How's a computer going to distinguish between a technical fault with certain variables? Is it going to have decision making abilities? Remember, the first crash caused by a computer making the wrong decision (they are categoric, there is no inbetween) or by failing, will almost certainly be the last. Sure, human error is the still single largest cause of crashes (though I read it has come down greatly recently?), but still the best way for humans and their cargo to be transported (psychologically anyway) is by humans. Then again it would be typical of humans to manufacture our own downfall.

[v6g]

The cost to the passengers of having 2 pilots on an average flight equates to a pittance.
- about the same "pittance" as the Radio Operator and the Flight Engineer.

There is a reason. How's a computer going to distinguish between a technical fault with certain variables? Is it going to have decision making abilities? Remember, the first crash caused by a computer making the wrong decision (they are categoric, there is no inbetween) or by failing, will almost certainly be the last. Sure, human error is the still single largest cause of crashes (though I read it has come down greatly recently?), but still the best way for humans and their cargo to be transported (psychologically anyway) is by humans. Then again it would be typical of humans to manufacture our own downfall.
- Thank you! That's exactly why the plane will still have 2 pilots, but one of them will be on the ground.

Sure, these are issues that are way off in the future, 10 years at least. But if you're choosing to borrow £100K for integrated training right now, which will take most of that time to break even, they are just what you should be considering.

[ChrisLKKB]

Nobody is suggesting that oil is going to "run out" in our lifetimes. My suggestion is that very soon, supply will begin to decline (or more likely, enter a prolonged plateau) and be unable to keep up with increasing demand.

How soon ? Research by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicts oil production capacity is set to grow by 25% by 2015 and spare crude capacity to grow from 2 million barrels to 12 million barrels by 2010.

[v6g]

How soon ? Research by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicts oil production capacity is set to grow by 25% by 2015 and spare crude capacity to grow from 2 million barrels to 12 million barrels by 2010.

CERA have always been the one lone voice with anything more than an armchair-level of expertise who have offered an opposing opinion, which makes them worth listening to.

However, I've always doubted their prognostications because:
i) I'm not convinced of their impartiality.
ii) The only thing that seems to have been consistent with them is that they have been consistently wrong on their predictions - not just on actual dollar figures (which any rational mind can excuse) but on the overall price trend.
iii) They ascertain that, "We're right and everyone else is wrong. Just trust us.". Which, by failing to release the underlying figures that their research is based on, puts them right next to OPEC or an Icelandic bank in their trustworthiness. Their, "It's a fact - but we can't tell you why" stance is reminiscent of Tony Blair before the Iraq invasion.

One of their more recent predictions set the peak or plateau beginning not before 2020. Which means that they agree with the underlying theory, just disagreeing on some of the predictions for anticipated supply & demand.

I value their contributions to this topic though. It's crucial to hear both sides of the argument in order to build an informed judgment.

[corsair]

Far too much doom and gloom. I'm beginning to wonder if our younger generation's heads have been filled with too much negativity by the constant bombardment of the the doom mongers. You really can't open a newspaper or turn on TV without being some talking head informing us that if we don't do something about it soon: WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!

Frankly I'm pretty sick of it, and have gone from being an avid newspaper reader and follower of current affairs to someone who rarely buys a newspaper and if I do pick one up. I only read trivial stories. It's the same with the TV and the internet.

For those of you who believe all the crap you read, try and get hold of newspaper archives from 30 years ago and you'll find the same nonsense.

This current recession, is in part due to everybody having talked themselves into it. Sure the banks played their part. But mostly it's caused by negative thinking brought on by consistently pessimistic predictions.

As for the long term viability of an airline career? Well frankly, if that bothers you, don't become a pilot. Even if it did all end in 30 years, so what? You had a good run. I doubt if it will though. I suspect my new born son, should he chose that job when he grows up, will enjoy a long and fruitful career.


As for the oft mooted, unmanned or one-manned airliners controlled from the ground. :rolleyes: Comparing them to unmanned trains is just asinine. Usually people who come up with that suggestion are non pilots. People who think that the smoothness and routine of airline flying is only because of all the automation on board are simply ignorant. Microsoft FS is not like the real world.

I remember as a child worrying that with the tremendous rate of technological advances that aeroplanes would be replaced by 'something' before I could become a pilot. I was a child of the space age, which was a considerably more optimistic time and it looked quite possible. Now it's the era of climate change and global disaster. Pessimism rules. So the current child worries that there will be no aeroplanes because all the oil will be gone. Neither attitude makes sense. The world just rolls along. It's also important to remember that for the most part humans have advanced over the centuries. Rarely have they gone backwards. There is no reason to suppose that will happen now. Aircraft are here to stay, in what form remains to be seen.

[Rainboe]

Eikido, you really need to examine real life. You are coming out with these 'factlets' that are total garbage. Sadly you cannot help it, this generation is being bombarded with absurd 'green' propaganda. The fact is I suffered from it once. I believed those idiots. I had severe doubts at the start of my career because we were being told 'the oil is running out!'. Utter tosh! This Peak Oil nonsense relies on all reserves being known now. They are finding more oil all the time- the latest is a big find off Rio, and oil extraction is vastly improving all the time. As oil gets more pricey, alternatives will be found, but it's not at $200 yet, it's actually nearer $60!

If you want to believe there is no career in aviation, you are naive and stupid, and better you go into something else and leave more room for new starters! Sorry to be brutal, but if you are going to swallow foolish propaganda, then you don't deserve to be in aviation!

[PosClimb]

This current recession, is in part due to everybody having talked themselves into it. Sure the banks played their part. But mostly it's caused by negative thinking brought on by consistently pessimistic predictions.

Forgot fiscal reform...
Forgot overhauling the banking system...
Forget the principles of macro economics....

All the world needs is a "Power of Positive Attitude" motivational tape that they can listen to in their car on the way to work...

You got my vote, Corsair!

[PosClimb]

if you are going to swallow foolish propaganda, then you don't deserve to be in aviation!

That's rich.

[BerksFlyer]

People who think that the smoothness and routine of airline flying is only because of all the automation on board are simply ignorant. Microsoft FS is not like the real world.

That's so true. It's incredible the amount of ignorant people who comment "oh, it's all computers nowadays though isn't it, not much to do." Armchair experts.

[Aerospace101]

WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!

Its called Life...

[corsair]

Forgot fiscal reform...
Forgot overhauling the banking system...
Forget the principles of macro economics....

I'm not suggesting anything about positive thinking and other mumbo jumbo. In any case it was to much positive thinking that lead to this crisis, wishful thinking even.

But the problem is negative thinking and there's far too much of it at the moment. Many people for whom nothing has actually changed are now not spending money because of this recession. As a result the economy is slowing. Consumer confidence is as much a problem as anything else. We also have our friend deciding not to pursue a career as a pilot because he believes the oil will run out and climate change will stop people flying. It all becomes self fulfilling in the end.

[v6g]

Pilots seem particularly prone to self-delusion on the oil issue, it's notable by the lack of any sound arguments on the major points of the theory, other than the usual: "there's plenty of oil yet to be found", aswell as the confusion that it's something to do with the environmental movement. The most common response: "oil isn't running out" is profound since none of the serious supporters of the peak oil theory actually believe that either.

Although, it is encouraging that I've never heard amongst the aviation community my personal favourite answer: "Jesus will save us".

This Peak Oil nonsense relies on all reserves being known now. They are finding more oil all the time- the latest is a big find off Rio, and oil extraction is vastly improving all the time. As oil gets more pricey, alternatives will be found, but it's not at $200 yet, it's actually nearer $60!

If you want to believe there is no career in aviation, you are naive and stupid, and better you go into something else and leave more room for new starters! Sorry to be brutal, but if you are going to swallow foolish propaganda, then you don't deserve to be in aviation!

The Brazilian find is indeed interesting, but the current estimate of proven reserves is still far below that of Ghawar.

Please, if you're going to criticise or throw insults, at least read what's been said. I didn't say oil is running out. That comment alone demonstrates sincere lack of understanding of the issues.

So Rainboe, if as you say, I'm "naive and stupid", then could you please explain to me:
1) Why oil prospectors (armed with ever increasing exploration budgets) are deliberately finding smaller and smaller reserves and why these reserves are getting harder and harder to access?
2) Why the water-cut of the worlds largest producing oil fields is increasing rapidly?
3) How Russia can actually increase their production even though they've publicly announced that they have already peaked and are now in decline?
4) Why you unquestioningly believe OPEC when they say "We have plenty of oil - just trust us" - yet they refuse to publish any verifiable data?
5) Why OPEC countries sovereign wealth fund investments in surface-based transportation (rail, shipping, etc...) far outweighs their investments in aviation related industries?

Oh of course, I forgot, asking these questions simply shows that I'm "stupid and naive".