The Recession

[bjlurzjet]

Does anyone know how the Asian airline market will handle this economic downturn? I know it's a broad question and I realize the smaller LCC's will have difficulties, but in general, are the larger airlines in China, Vietnam, Japan and Korea able to weather this recession? Thanks for any insight.

f9brian

[knee how]

What recession?

[southernmtn]

Perhaps, someone should explain to this man from China the 2 meanings of this English word; one is a definition in economics and the other is a literal meaning.:ugh:

[knee how]

Perhaps, someone should explain to this man from China the 2 meanings of this English word; one is a definition in economics and the other is a literal meaning.:ugh:

I know what recession is, buddy. It's something that's happening in your part of the world due to economic greed. It aint happening here. And with that sort of arrogant attitude, you wont last more than 2 seconds here in China so best stay where you are.

[Luke Darkstar]

Uuuh, the only one who is showing an arrogant attitude is you, knee how.

The problem which arises right now concerns every country and I am sure it won't make a big avoidance turn around your place, mate. Sooner or later every expanding country will have to face some limits - especially when it will be set by the stock market. Maybe this is the lesson we have already learned coming from countries who try to keep a certain standard which we built up before, a situation which will take place in your future - but it WILL take place. Momentarily you might be quite happy with your expanding economy, but remember who brought it to your country and from whom all of your experts did copy the originals.
So, just lay back and relax, and be advised: you will be surprised one day. You better don't shout like a lion when you are just a little kitten.

So, is anybody around here who is willing to do a little smalltalk about topic??
For the major Vietnam Airline I am quite sure there is a kind of buffer zone due to government support. But it won't last forever. What about other Asian airlines? India seems to face some problems...

[AiRBuS_380]

Hi guys,

no matter where you are airlines are goin to be a roller coaster ride anytime soon. many major airlines are freezing headcount with many piloting intakes being KIV. Cadetship has been affected as well as i have heard from many colleagues that training will be slowed down and even stop if the economy goes down. On the other hand, the LCC market have seen a sudden boast of travellers due to the paradigm shift occuring in the price ticketing world. guess it would now be great to just sit tight and enjoy the ride....

Hongkong and Macao have been seen being affected as well, thus China as a whole will feel the impact as well. As for aviation industry from knee how, China aviation market (domestic) might not be fully affected as they are not really as deregulated as other nations are therefore, aviation employees might be in a buffer zone at the safer side compared to us. Since the start after SARS, Airlines whom are registered in China has more demand then supply... therfore perhaps thats the reason why knee how dont feel the heat yet.

I would like to comment that unecessary arugment will not help, rather hope people can help fellow pilots survive and get job placement during such difficult times.

airlines staff worldwide i suppose are in a 'what to do' state i guess.. for me rosters have slowed down and signs are simply showing up....

good luck!

Great way to fly!

[little_flyer_340]

In the long run, CHINA will WIN!!!

[James' Bro]

Perhaps, someone should explain to this man from China the 2 meanings of this English word; one is a definition in economics and the other is a literal meaning.:ugh:

Oooooohhh petty petty...:rolleyes:

Bet you do not know who Uncle Dandie Fenandie is !

[jumpdrive]

asia's "the" place to be
f$@% the rest

[Tacolegend]

Seriously?? What has this forum come to? I haven't seen such petty bickering since I was in grade school. If you are what is considered "professional pilots" in Asia it makes me sick and scared.

"Asia is the place to be! F@$k the rest" Get back to flying your Cessna and maybe you will break 100 hours sometime this year. If you are a "Airline pilot" god help whoever has to spend time in the pit with you.

Grow up.

Someone please lock this thread.

[anito4a]

What the recession will mean for Asia? Well, a flood of US pilots coming here increasing the supply and consequently lowering the demand. This can only mean one thing for terms and conditions for the future. :yuk: It's economics 101.

Someone please lock this thread.

And you're learning fast. Yes, censorship and lack of freedom of expression are some of the things you'll need to get used to in this part of the world. You'll fit right in. Welcome to Asia! :D

[Luke Darkstar]

It all doesn't make any sense.
This shouldn't be the place to show desperate pride or fighting all the others. It shouldn't be black against white or USA against Asia. The whole game will only work out well when we are sticking together, at least on the basis of our work. And once you look beyond the borders of your country you will realize that things become quite the same everywhere. Just calm down.

There has always been a flow of pilots from places with less demand to places with higher demand. And these places change. Take a look to Thailand: They were quite happy with taking all the expat pilots to help them growing their airline industry. And once they had enough locals, all of the expats were sent home. Not very nice, but that's the game. For a time expats can earn a very good money - but you are the first one to go. It seems to be similar with other countries: There is a lack of local pilots, for example Korea (and I won't value this fact right here) and expats are paid quite well.
So don't blame the drowning economy of the western part of the world for the situation of the pilots' job market in Asia.

[ZFT]

What does the recession mean for Asian carriers?

1)Temporary end to the pilot shortage.
2)Loss of expat jobs – already many carriers are either not renewing existing contracts or curtailing existing ones.
3)Loss of local jobs.
4)Quite severe cut backs in ‘rewards’.
5)Cut back in route/frequencies.
6)No or limited expansion.
7)Deferred aircraft deliveries.
8)Severe cut backs in training budgets.

..and the above have already occurred in many countries with worse to come I fear..

[ozthai]

Here in Thailand we copped a double wammie.

The world wide recession plus the political promblems.

Thailand aviation is suffering most in Asia.

Expats, (like me), fighting to get paid.

Lot stems from very bad planning from unprofessional upper management.

Thailand, the land of broken promises right now.

And yes, they need us but don't want us.

[bjlurzjet]

Here's a link to a yahoo piece regarding China's slowdown.

China Tries to Steer Clear of Slowdown: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance (http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/081024/260457.html?.v=1)

[mingalababya]

Expats, (like me), fighting to get paid.

Lot stems from very bad planning from unprofessional upper management.

Thailand, the land of broken promises right now.

And yes, they need us but don't want us.

Mate, how did you get a job in Thailand with just a PPL? :confused:

[SlipItIn]

Here is fairly ominous news:

FT.com - China Eastern axes flights as bookings fall (http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto111120081257451545&referrer_id=yahoofinance)

[barrybeebone]

yes the recession will provide a temporary end to pilot shortage, ATC shortage (limited effect), maintenance engineers shortage as companies will reduce recruitment.

These shortages will also stop temorarily as those losing jobs in US, Europe come to asia and look for work.

[DoctorEcam]

what about Middle East?

cheers
Doc

[Orangputi]

Hi Knee How,

Are you honestly saying that there is no greed in China?

If the process of watering down milk and adding a dangerous chemical to raise the protein levels to pass the government QA testing to sell twice as much of a product is not greedy then I am confused? I wont even mention the sickness and deaths caused from it (often to little kids!)

Keep the racism out of it. This is just a discussion on how the world I repeat world economic downturn will affect the aviation industry.

[jumpdrive]

hey tacoland!
its thanks to your country & all its specullators
w'r going through all of this in the 1st place
and in the airline im in
there is a FLOOD of "gringos" desperate for a job
free of taxes to give back to uncle sam!!!
and a coke for a dime!!!!!
son dont give me that nonsense c@#&
get real buddy......... not offended by the post here
its the main purspose of it....or not?

c ya

[4PW's]

Whilst nothing is certain, market analysts I have followed since 1995 assign a high probability to more downside movement of stock markets the world over, quite a lot more, as we are at the end of the first stages of the beginning of a multi-decade decline in man's optimism, reflected in stock averages.

Using the DJIA as a benchmark, January 2000 marks the conventional all-time bull market high. A two year cyclical bear market followed, drawing down to the 2002 low. A six year cyclical bull market spanning 2002-2007 then moved markets up worldwide. Yet the larger trend down reasserted itself circa October 2007.

That impulsive move down has not ended. However, internal dynamics show near term ending of the current short-term bounce from the recent October 10, 2008 low (one year out from the Oct 2007 high).

When the bounce has ended, more downside movement will take out the October 10, 2008 low. The target with the break is below 7200.

The break to 7200 will be short and sharp. It will also be the end of the drop from October 2007, the DJIA's all-time high in points. Being the end of such a large move will provide a rallying point for the market to retrace these massive losses, before we begin another impulsive move down of an order that will dwarf the run down to October 10 low (which caused the world to panic).

Even this will not be the end of the bear market.

Markets move from mass optimism to mass pessimism and back again in cycles that are complex but defined by wave-like structures. Arguing with the market is arguing with mass psychology, which has never once proved to be profitable.

What to do about all this is quite a challenge for all of us.

Near-term, the auto industry in the USA is about to be bankrupted with the loss of millions of jobs. Mass bankruptcy of domestic and international airlines will be close behind.

[777heavy]

Wow 4pw's!

A pilot and an expert on world economics. Amazing.

Its just as well not everyone shares your gloom and doom forecast.

Optimisim is a healthy attitude.

[4PW's]

Someone asked, I answered. I am sorry if my take offended you. Being able to answer the question doesn't make me an expert.

There's a difference between probability and certainty. The forecast in the post above is not certain, it's only highly likely. Time will tell.

If you traded markets for a living or as a past-time, I'm sure you'd eventually come to see their movement being irrespective of news, world events or the latest spin from the Federal Reserve or politicians.

Markets move as a reflection of mankind's swings from mass optimism to mass pessimism. You can fight that reality if you like, but you'll burn through a lot of money proving you were wrong.

[B747-800]

if chinese airlines are looking for help how much more other airlines need help?

FT.com / UK - Chinese airlines seek emergency aid (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/42c757b8-b510-11dd-b780-0000779fd18c.html)


China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines, two of the country's three largest state-run carriers, have applied for emergency government subsidies to keep them airborne in the face of rising costs and falling passenger demand.
The airlines told the Financial Times that they had applied to the government for the subsidies after industry-wide losses in the first 10 months of the year totalled Rmb4.2bn ($615m).



After struggling to cope with record high fuel costs over the past year, Chinese airlines have been hurt even more by the recent big drop in oil prices because of losses stemming from their hedging operations. They have also been hurt by a slowdown in the steady rise of China's currency, the renminbi, against the US dollar.
Most of the heavy debt-load of the Chinese airlines is denominated in US dollars, making them cheaper to service when the renminbi is appreciating.
China Southern's Hong Kong-listed shares, which can be traded freely by international investors, jumped 12 per cent yesterday, while China Eastern's rose 7.6 per cent and Air China's were up 2.5 per cent.


Singapore Airlines limits passenger load factor decline in October, but cargo continues to fall | Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2008/11/18/singapore-airlines-limits-passenger-load-factor-decline-in-october-but-cargo-continues-to-fall/page1)

SQ


Singapore Airlines passenger load factor for rolling 12 months (%): Nov-08 to Oct-08
http://www.centreforaviation.com/images/stories/2008/november/18/SIA1.png

Singapore Airlines passenger load factor and cargo load factor growth by region (%): Nov-08 to Oct-08
http://www.centreforaviation.com/images/stories/2008/november/18/SIA3.png
Singapore Airlines passenger numbers vs cargo volume growth (% change year-on-year): Nov-08 to Oct-08

http://www.centreforaviation.com/images/stories/2008/november/18/SIA4.png


KAL

Korean Air loses USD5.4 million per day in cruel third quarter | Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2008/11/18/korean-air-loses-usd54-million-per-day-in-cruel-third-quarter/page1)



Korean Air loses USD5.4 million per day in cruel third quarter
Korean Air's shares rose 6.4% on 17-Nov-08 despite the carrier unveiling its biggest quarterly loss in a decade in the third quarter (ended 30-Sep-08). The carrier's net loss reached a breathtaking USD495.7 million in the quarter, compared to a profit of KRW129.6 billion in the same period last year, despite a 16.4% year-on-year increase in revenue.
Korean Air stated, "given current economic conditions, air travel demand will continue to slow down during the fourth quarter and weak cargo demand will continue through the end of this year".
Despite the gloom, investors appear to have seized on management's predictions of an improvement in the airline's fourth-quarter performance on the back of a recent fall in oil prices.
Korean Air's fuel costs rose 83% in the three months to September, due to higher jet fuel prices and the won's sharp (13%) depreciation against the US dollar in the period, which contributed to larger foreign exchange losses and made overseas travel more expensive for Koreans. International travel demand departing from Korea fell 15% during the last quarter.
The confluence of bad news for KAL was enough to give it the worst net margin (-24.8%) among Asia Pacific carriers that have reported third quarter earnings to date. It was even worse than the chronic loss-maker, China Eastern, which turned in a negative 21.6% net margin in the quarter and now looks set to receive a multi-million dollar government bailout.

Selected Asia Pacific carriers' net profit margin for the three* months ended 30-Sep-08:


http://www.centreforaviation.com/images/stories/2008/november/18/20081118-1.png

[handsome one]

is it true or rumours air asia capt prod has been reduce from 195 per hour to a lesser amount?

[lastdon]

B747,

Thank you for posting the charts which is as clear as "THE writing on the wall."

if chinese airlines are looking for help how much more other airlines need help?


Currently the scenario for corporates is like.....Travel only IF required.
Most work now is carried out by Video Conferencing, Web Meeting etc etc.......

Airlines would be one of the last sector's where the boom (or so called +ve growth) will be seen. And the first one will be the Housing market. So only when the housing market starts to pickup once again in the future, should we start discussing about "The Great Upturn in Aviation Industry".

Till then it is Good Night.......I guess its going to be a long cold winter night......:ouch:

Regards