Who ISNT in a spot of bother...

[silverstreak]

The heat has certainly been turned up on the worldwide commercial aviation scene recently with numerous airlines and operators going under, and through the mill in one form or another...

Just who ISNT in a spot of bother?

NO airline / operator will admit to being short of funds - corporate madness, however many if not all will try painting a pretty picture, to try and buy time and consumer confidence.

It really would be interesting to see the ballance sheets of the top 100 worldwide airlines and see just how they are doing...

[Charlie Roy]

Lufthansa seem to be doing exceptionally well.
The list ends there :cool:

[Certa Cito]

Not at all Charlie Roy :)

Flybe are doing very well at the moment thank you. £32m profit last year with £12.3m in the first Q alone this year already. Still expanding their new fleet and continuing to recruit albeit slowly. :ok: New routes to come with the winter schedule in a few weeks time.

I believe a sudden increase in applications have been received recently.

[Expressflight]

With the oil price dropping to $91/barrel overnight at least that provides a glimmer of hope to those airlines in difficulty.

There's a certain grim satisfaction in hearing the analysts say that the huge price fall yesterday was largely due to the fact that Lehman Brothers had been one of the main participants in the speculative buying which contributed greatly to oil reaching $147/barrel in the summer.

[heebeegb]

I wouldn't be so sure Certa Cito.

[VAFFPAX]

Expressflight, I heard the same kind of thing... It will be interesting for those airlines who did their hedging at $120/bbl, the question there is, for how long did they hedge at that price?

Those who now hedge their fuel before it wanders back up (if the reports are anything to go by, there are a LOT of Lehmans brokers out there at the moment... watch them getting soaked up by the banks and them starting the cycle up again).

Sorry, I'm very cynical when it comes to the financial industry.

S.

[Rollerboy]

What would you not be so sure about heebeegb????

I for one don't want to see any more airlines to go down but unfortunately in the present climate we may loose a few more. However I cannot speculate and will not speculate on this who is going to go next rubbish.

If you and any of the other doom mongerers are sure you can predict the next airline collapse then get yourself over to the betting websites and put your money where your mouth is. That way you won't be posting rubbish on here.

Bye for now.

[Shamrogue]

Betting on a demise I can't say I agree with.

However, looking at the list with the exception of Alitalia and maybe Spanair, the rest I would suspect are not in bad shape. How Aer Lingus is at lower odds to Ryanair, I have no idea. The debate on that could go on for a while.

The one serious instability is the "credit crunch" and I beleive that will effect carriers from behind. Ie - the ability to borrow to hedge etc. If they can't borrow they are screwed and the game is over, or at least a knight in armour is required. And on that basis I would lower the odds on most of the airlines. There are very few of them with "Cash cash" in the bank. And where they have cash, it may not be enough to keep them plodding along. This might be a simplitic view, but it's more than charter airlines who are "flaky".

Cheers

Shamrogue

[MANAGP]

Monarch

3 shareholders (owners) all very happy with business and profits for this year.

[heebeegb]

I didn't predict anything. Nor did i hazard a guess about who is next. All I'm saying is that i wouldn't be so sure about Flybe or any other airline for that matter. None has faced a set of circumstances like this before. Survival will be that of the fittest. I know where i'd want to be (am) but I'll keep that to myself. There's no doom mongering from me - it's just pure reality. I can't afford to bury my head - you may be in a more fortunate position.

[Sean Dillon]

I know where i'd want to be (am) but I'll keep that to myself.

With a name like yours and a 320/1 rating not that difficult to work out! But you are correct, for the next few years - it's all about keeping a job! And you'll be secure...

TUI and Thomas Cook also ok, between the two - Europe is now pretty much theirs!

[Cloud1]

"With a name like yours and a 320/1 rating not that difficult to work out!"
:D

Heebeegb - Flybe are in a strong position and are looking at expanding. They are doing very well. Mainly business passengers, several corporate clients I cannot see them leaving that behind. End. :rolleyes:

[heebeegb]

Well, i hope so. Really. Although I didn't particularly enjoy my time there, they have certainly got a market niche. Not me you have to convince though. It's the big economic picture that's the boss.

[beauport potato man]

Cloud1,

not so sure about the bullish expansion you speak of......

Flybe cuts plans for growth after fall in business passengers | Business | The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/09/theairlineindustry)

this says exactly the opposite!!!!

and before you you put your Poirot hat on, I work with heebeegb too.

[JB007]

and before you you put your Poirot hat on, I work with heebeegb too.

Not a potato farm on Jersey then!?!

[Beancounter1]

The only carriers that are not in a spot of bother are carriers which have a monopoly in their country through state aid/protectionism in one form or another ie Air France/KLM & Lufthansa, plus airlines that have more money than they know what to do with ie Emirates, Etihad, Qatar.

[beauport potato man]

A potato farm??? HAHA!! Almost JB007..... i've not been there for years.

How's the old man in IOM?

[JB007]

Loving the Kippers, local beer and Ducati riding on weekends...work plays a part somewhere...