30 airlines will go bust this year

[Duff beer]

According to WW!

Warning: 30 airlines will go bust this year - News & Advice, Travel - The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/warning-30-airlines-will-go-bust-this-year-928774.html)

Anyone hazard a guess who will be around after the storm?

[bri1980]

I was slightly suprised to read in the article that Alitalia might have problems.

[Rollerboy]

Some have ideas of who is next. Place your bets

Next airline to go bust? - Next Airline To Go Bust? Betting (http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=45&ev_type_id=10368&ev_oc_grp_ids=86563&bir_index=)

I wonder if this is a joke?


Roller

[mono]

I was slightly suprised to read in the article that Alitalia might have problems.

What planet are you living on??

They have been propped up by sucessive governments for years and the EU has finally said enough. if the pilots and CC don't sort themselves out they'll be drawing the dole as early as next week!!

[False Capture]

From The Independent:Some bookmakers are now taking bets on which airline or tour operator will be the next to go bankrupt, though transport analysts are reluctant publicly to name those considered most vulnerable for fear of sparking a panic that would seal their fate.PPRuNe members should take note of this when posting doom and gloom about named airlines.

[Dani]

One thing is for sure:

Alitalia will never go bust!

Willie Walsh is slightly biased in his opinion: the more fear he spreads, the more potential customers will jump on a more safe bet - i.e. a well known carrier.

It all depends on the oil prices and before that on the US presidential election. If there will be a change in US foreign policies towards multilateralism, we will have much less international tensions and so - lower oil prices.

Dani

[HZ123]

WW is right to point this out. Buy cheap buy twice as some people are finding to their cost this weekend. After this week I wonder just how bad some airlines balance sheets must be.

[aspaceman]

One thing is for sure:

Alitalia will never go bust!


and another

The world is flat
King Canute stopped the sea
The Titanic is still afloat............ :ugh::ugh::ugh:

[bri1980]

What planet are you living on??

They have been propped up by sucessive governments for years and the EU has finally said enough. if the pilots and CC don't sort themselves out they'll be drawing the dole as early as next week!!


I live on a planet where watching to see what Alitalia is doing is not my primary concern...or even my secondary concern. Consequently I was a little suprised, though I admit not totally.

B

[captplaystation]

Which begs the question, if you don't have even a peripheral idea of the historical state of Alitalia what are you actually doing, let alone posting, on a Professional Pilots forum ? ?

[reamer]

To beg the question does not mean "to raise the question." (e.g. "It begs the question, why is he so dumb?") This is a common error of usage made by those who mistake the word "question" in the phrase to refer to a literal question. Sadly, the error has grown more and more common with time, such that even journalists, advertisers, and major mass media entities have fallen prey to "BTQ Abuse."

When one begs the question, the initial assumption of a statement is treated as already proven without any logic to show why the statement is true in the first place.
A simple example would be "I think he is unattractive because he is ugly." The adjective "ugly" does not explain why the subject is "unattractive" -- they virtually amount to the same subjective meaning, and the proof is merely a restatement of the premise. The sentence has begged the question.

[False Capture]

One thing is for sure:

Alitalia will never go bust!
If that's the case why are Alitalia's odds on that betting website 6 -4? :ugh:

[bri1980]

Which begs the question, if you don't have even a peripheral idea of the historical state of Alitalia what are you actually doing, let alone posting, on a Professional Pilots forum ? ?

Historical state yes. The suprise arose because I hadn't realised they were in such imminent danger. Perhaps I ought to have, but didn't! :eek:

[AvEnthusiast]

XL and Alitalia are the next. Don't know what will happen to this industry? Is it wise to go for flight training at this time. As I'm just about starting and sorting out visa issues. But this makes me afraid.

[Artificial Horizon]

Financial papers this morning are also saying that analysts believe there to be 9 airlines in the UK both scheduled and charter who are in danger of becoming insolvent in the near future.:eek:

[al446]

To Bri1980 -

Alitalia has long been known to be deep in the doo-doo, something that is known to most ppruners apart from those who spend their time in jet blast (who would want to do that?). Hence the surprise that many have with your ignorance of its perilous state, if it wasn't for Italian government nailing it to the perch it would be pushing up daisies, a late airline, despite its lovely plumeage. A pity in my eyes as their service was excellent when they flew me to Trieste.

To Reamer -

As to whether this begs or raises any questions, I couldn't give a flying :mad:, this is a rumour network, not the towering spires of Oxford (which are pretty crap and didn't impress me) nor the senior common room of Unseen University so could we forget about the Times Literary Supplement style sheet please. Methinks you have either too much time on your hands or suffer from OCD. Either way, professional help is required.

Cheers.

[windytoo]

So al446, I guess you must be a carpenter as you appear to have a chip on both shoulders.

[sussex2]

'Surprised that Alitalia might have problems' - a very dry sense of humour I suspect!

[Dani]

For those discussing the missunderstanding of English words like "begging" and "question", one has to ask the question if you not only not know the language used here, but also the political facts in one southerly nation on our continent.

Alitalia *is* bankrupt, but that doesn't mean that it will ever go bust in the near future or in longer terms. This is not an economic statement but the analysis of the actual Italian government and its nationalist behaviour. So if you bet on Alitalia's bust, you are plain wrong and don't understand anything about Italy.

Just because a funny page places a beg ratio against it doesn't mean that the facts have changed. So go home and do your homework. Maybe reading Machiavelli or an actual newspaper.

Dani

[bri1980]

To Bri1980 -

Alitalia has long been known to be deep in the doo-doo, something that is known to most ppruners apart from those who spend their time in jet blast (who would want to do that?). Hence the surprise that many have with your ignorance of its perilous state, if it wasn't for Italian government nailing it to the perch it would be pushing up daisies, a late airline, despite its lovely plumeage.


Indeed. Having done a little catch up reading I must say that my own ignorance of that situation has suprised me. I was clearly living with my head in the sand on that one! :ugh:

As for the person who suggests that what I said was a dry sense of humour: I wish it was!

B

[B772]

One news report quotes the Pope as praying for the survival of Alitalia.

[al446]

windytoo- How do you know about my personal life? I was hoping to keep my joinery skills hidden from the public but you have now outed me. shame on you, just dont come begging when you want a door hung.

As for Alitalia, it is correct that it is public knowledge that they have been bankrupt for ages but the change has come with the EU deciding that enough is enough. See other threads for that. I must get back to my homework now or teacher will be very cross.

[el #]

El446, actually EU hasn't decided anything. Surely they objected to the latest loan (should I say last ?), thing that has NOT prevented the Italian Gov to go ahead. In fact the italian gov. (past and present) embraces EU policies when it's convenient for them, and ignore them when it's not.

Now as I said in another thread, yet another bailbout from the Gov is unlikely, not because the EU watchdog, but for internal political reasonss that can be boring to repeat here.

[al446]

I bow to your knowledge

[WindSheer]

The frightening thing is that airlines that have good load factors, and good performance are in danger of going under. Who knows who could be next.
Airlines such as flybe and Ryanair must be really twitchy with a constant in- flow of new a/c......:eek:

Whoever is next to go, its a sad time and I fear that the bottom rungs have been chopped off the recruitment ladder for the forseeable future...:{

[XXXavier]

Alitalia will survive. I'm 100% sure... It's a question of national pride. Besides, most Italian companies are almost immortal. Take a look at the history of Fiat or Piaggio...

XXXavier

[SOPS]

Regarding Alitalia..I would like to bet.."not this time". I think it is all over, that the fat lady is about to sing. Yes, they have pulled it off time and time again, continued working with rules out of 1847, and taken "funding' from where ever they could get it.

But I think..this time it's different. The Piper is Playing the Tune, the Obese Chick is doing the Rap...the cards are about to fall.............

Lets see if I am right.

[100above]

Windsheer, Ryanair have cash in the bank, low operating costs and can undercut any of their competition for many years to come. Flybe have cash in the bank, record profits last year and £12m profit for first quarter this year. Flybe's new Q400 deliveries are just replacing departing 145s with a more fuel efficient aircraft. Both the airlines you mention are actually better placed than most to weather the tough times facing our industry.

[DUXBY]

Sadly the EU makes rules for the Brits to adhere to and for the rest of Europe to ignore.

[eastern wiseguy]

Flybe have cash in the bank, record profits last year and £12m profit for first quarter this year.

That they do....however with a recession looming will they have enough CUSTOMERS to fill their aircraft. I wonder how exposed they would be in a straight fight against other "lower cost" operators when every penny counts..?

£12m profit

Was that before or after the oil price spiralled up and down?

[BongleBear]

if any airline wants to survive, all they need to do is put all remaining funds on alitalia going bust next, they can get 6/4 on it. paddypower have drawn up the odds:


i saw willie walsh dropping into my local bookies putting a cheeky hundred quid on ba at 50/1

[spinnaker]

Paddypower is now giving odds of 5/4. Looks like that's where the money is going

[speedrestriction]

Eastern Wiseguy,

That they do....however with a recession looming will they have enough CUSTOMERS to fill their aircraft.

Yes

I wonder how exposed they would be in a straight fight against
other "lower cost" operators when every penny counts..?

There are no lower cost operators than flybe in their market segment. Flybe's biggest competitor is actually BMI (between the domestic routes of regional and baby). On what percentage of their routes do you suppose flybe are in a "straight fight" with RYR and EZY? Think about it now. 50%? 20%? 10%? 5%? Do a little research, then get back on here with some informed and valid questioning.

sr

[Cloud1]

I would like to know how Eastern Airways are doing??

[eastern wiseguy]

Think about it now

Patronising .......:hmm:

Think about BFS/BHD LGW GLA NCL MAN LBA CDF EDI (as examples).....think about Flybe and the CONSISTENTLY higher fares(yes I do check)...think about cutbacks when there is a recession.....think about choice when the travel department are spending money.

Your shiny new aircraft may well be efficient...but you still need bums on seats and that seems to be the one element which is evaporating quicker than snow of a sheugh.:bored:

[merlinxx]

Air Berlin, if the attitude of their CC is be a gauge, they should have gone already.

[Maude Charlee]

Of course, EZY haven't recently announced redundancies or large cutbacks on route frequencies out of BFS at all. Or did they? Maybe Wiseguy can fill us in.

BE have cut some rotations from BHD too, but nothing like EZY, and not one single redundancy at all.

Compare away dear friend, compare away. Oh and Tower Ranger sends his regards. :}

[daz211]

There is talk of EZY cut backs, closing the Stansted (base).

One thing I have noticed over the last few weeks is the rate Ryanair are
launching new routes out of Stansted and other Airports.

[Pontious]

Hang on a minute. Aren't we in danger of doing this Journo Hack's job for him?
He's from that same stable of sh*t that that other sensationalist anti aviation git Montague slithered out from. Does everybody remember him? Post EgyptAir he was trawling these forums surupticiously for snippets of 'could be this' & 'it's definately that'. He's now the 'media frontman' with EuroTunnel.

Calder is a spineless, chinless tw*t of the highest order & his literal arse gravy should be consigned to the toilet. It's factless, baseless, groundless supposition, rumour & 'what if' wrapped up as 'this is what's going to happen next', 'this one'll will probably not be around'. I wonder if he realises that his comments can actually put people off booking with a particular company thereby causing or potentially causing further collapses.

The 'man' is a sensationalist twit who, if brains, knowledge & insight into airline op's was dynamite, wouldn't have enough to clear his nose.

Make this swine know what it feels like to have sleepless nights about his job- boycott the 'Independant'

[BISH-BASH-BOSH]

From Todays telegraph,

The Icelandic owner of West Ham football club and his billionaire son are the major financial victims of the collapse of XL Leisure Group, nursing most of a £165m bad debt.

West Ham United has axed its £7.5m deal with XL
Banking magnate Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson and his son Bjorgolfur Thor Bjorgolfsson, along with other investors, have personally taken on the debt owed by XL to prevent the failed travel group triggering wider collapses in the Icelandic economy.

Their fear was that XL could also bring down Iceland's biggest transport company Eimskip, in which they have a controlling stake.

XL's three main creditors were revealed yesterday as British bank Barclays, owed around £10m, Icelandic bank Straumur, owed £36m, and Icelandic bank Landsbanki, owed £165m. Total debts are estimated to top £350m.

West Ham yesterday axed its £7.5m three-year shirt sponsorship deal with XL, though a spokesman for the club insisted: "There is no other fall-out from the collapse of XL."

Comment: XL Leisure Group is an extra large disaster
More on leisure
As XL's tearful chief executive Phil Wyatt said "ultimately I blame myself" for XL's administration, creditors rowed over who ended the refinancing talks that prompted its demise.

advertisementIn a last-ditch attempt this week, XL approached rival Thomas Cook over a potential rescue deal but the fledgling talks started too late. Administrator Kroll said it would be "grossly unjust" to place any blame on a single creditor, adding it would take months to work through XL's complex affairs.

One insider said: "It's the Icelandic backers that stand to lose the most from all this." XL's tangled web of debts to Icelandic companies leads back two years, when the tour operator's board staged a $480m (£267m) management buy-out from Eimskip.

The loan to complete the deal was provided to XL by bank Landsbanki, of which £165m was guaranteed by Eimskip.

Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson, who chairs Landsbanki, is the controlling shareholder in the bank while his son chairs Straumur. Straumur pumped £11m into XL in recent months in a doomed attempt to save the travel operator but settled for buying its French and German operations at "a considerable discount".

XL Leisure rivals ready to carve up business
XL highlights extent of Icelandic investment in the UK
Thomas Cook boss slams Government over XL
Phil Wyatt said he had worked "night and day" before admitting defeat. "We have made every effort to refinance the principal debt of the group but, despite significant interest, the group was unsuccessful."

He said XL would have needed an extra £70m to survive the winter. A Civil Aviation Authority spokesman said it was likely 1,700 jobs would be lost. XL's latest accounts for the year to October 31 2007 showed pre-tax losses of £7.1m on revenues of £549m.

[CP32]

Mungo man, are you saying that it is spelled Quantas? The spelling on the link is correct as Qantas. Queensland And Northern Territories Air Services.

[colinhunn]

VLM No way. Now owned by Air France KLM

[Carnage Matey!]

Lets not get too hung up on Willie Walshs prediction of 30 airlines going bust. In the Sky News interview they asked how many airlines would go bust and he simply said that thirty had gone bust in the last year and he wouldn't be surprised to see the same number go bust this year. It's not like he had any particular evidence of that, it was pure 'finger in the air' stuff that any one of us could have come up with!

[Pontious]

As for FlyGlobespan, I can't see them going bust anytime soon for the following reasons:

1)They have some very lucrative ACMI contracts, including the Falklands Airbridge which generates much needed cash for the airline.

2) There current load factors (if the last couple of flights I've operated are to go by) are very high with no empty seats & large ammounts of freight.

3) They hedged their fuel at a price well below $100/barrel.

4) The main rival on their 'Bread & Butter' UK- Canada Lo-Cost market has gone.

5) A serious rival on their SFB & Scotland- Med' routes has gone.

6) Bookings for next season are well up on this season despite the economic downturn.

7) They made a £20 million loss last year, whereas this year it's on track to make a (albeit humble) profit of £2 million.

8) It is a company owned by 1 man & isn't beholden to shareholders demands for dividends.

9) They've finally got their act together.
:ok:

[PAXboy]

chief executive Phil Wyatt said "ultimately I blame myself"I take my hat off to him. The first CEO in a very considerable number of years that has said that. :D

[eastern wiseguy]

Of course, EZY haven't recently announced redundancies or large cutbacks on route frequencies out of BFS at all. Or did they? Maybe Wiseguy can fill us in.

Of course they have. I see it every day on radar...and I apologise for not mentioning it....but that simply reinforces my point...there are less bums on less seats all round. Less bums means lean times for us all. Sad really.


Oh and Tower Ranger sends his regards.


Yeah ...he had faith in BHD, UK aviation and it's future:ok:
(Hi Mark)

[adz1616]

Well pax boy whilst phil whatt says that in one hand has his finger up at you on the other.

Ive had the unpleasantness of doing business with the man and whilst hes making money all is fine but the minute things go wrong he doesnt give a s...t about anyone else other than his pocket.

He ran caledonian and sabre airways into the ground and im sure this wont be the last weve seen of him.... im sure his cash has been put into XL france till the next venture...

[HZ123]

Fear not said he. I am sure it is only an oversight but we have some 1400 top professional airline managers coming onto the market any day now. These good people with their vast depth of aviation knowledge will be able to turn your airline around in a short space of time.

I am sure that for many of you it is an exciting prospect the thought of having a real big player on board. If any of you are interested please pm me as I have a list already of leavers with comprehensive skills base.