Thanks for that A+C,

You've amply displayed how so many of the voices here have an agenda. A business succeeding regardless of whether there are any jobs for wannabees to graduate to.

Rob

A and C

Sorry but you are losing credibility here. It really is amazing how alot of the "dispellers" of what WWW is saying are people who make money from wannabes, who are quick to defend the industry no matter what state the economy is in, who are quick to rubbish anyone who dares to tell people not to train, who are quick to call impartial people like WWW arrogant.
The common denominator here is that these people are people who have something to gain out of wannabes like yourself. Your opinions are based on an ulterior motive, and that motive is to make money.

Anyone with ½ a brain will know it isn't a good time to train. You know it, and I know it.

However that "good time" may not be far away. But for now I'd listen to WWWs advice over yours any day of the week.

Have a great weekend.

D777

Heli Port.....

Firstly, sincere congrats on the first time IR pass...nice work! Just a quicky on the Flybe interview you mentioned? I thought they had totally stopped recruiting? I've just finished my CPL and am about to start my IR at one of Flybe's 'favourite' school's (Cabair, FTE, OAA, Atlantic, Aero's, PTC and PAT)..... aparantly they've said they aren't taking any recommendations or referrals for the forseeable future from any of the above mentioned FTO's??? Interesting news if Flybe are still taking recommendations from OAA. Not sure how they are fairing at the moment but they seem to be very busy at EGHI even though they're summer schedule has been cut here and there.

Very best of luck with the interview, I work on the ramp at Southampton (one of Flybe's main base's) and they seem a friendly and vibrant airline to work for so wish you all the best mate!

2W2R :ok:

Do you think I went to Eton or something? Several of my year and two of my class have done long stretches for drugs and violence. I have the distinction of being the ONLY student who gained an A grade at A-level in my school - it was not good. We could do a 'three yorkshiremen' sketch about the shortcomings of our schools all day A&C and neither of us would win..
You're full of :mad:. I swear if you could award the nobel lauriate for aviation greats you'd award yourself. This thread should be renamed 'How great is WWW.. (http://WWW..).' He has a swimming pool, pilot job, came from a bad school and dispenses all his knowledge to us feeble beings aspiring to the good life.

WWW, we are not worthy....

You've got an inferiority complex mate. Stop ego :mad:nking. Please...

Flying_Shortly shut up you ignoramus, you're the one with the inferiority complex. You don't even know the guy. He speaks nothing but the facts, if you don't like it, don't read it. And don't say you are kidding again, number one, alot of truth is said in jest and number 2, you've said it countless times. It contributes nothing. You are probably working for an FTO, you seem like the sort. Now pipe down.

but i do have an interview with Flybe

Again that isn't as a pilot is it? I have mates working there (as pilots) who say there is definately no recruitment until at least the beginning of next year and that was backed up by the HR lady there. If you have managed to get one as a pilot you should go and buy a lottery ticket because you are VERY lucky, especally having finished so recently.

Using phrases such as "no hopers" and suggesting that those currently finishing their fATPL studies are not "the fittest" doesn't exactly make the target audience want to sit up and listen. People will read their own context.

No matter how correct the message, nor how noble the cause, if it isn't delivered in a way that will make people want to listen...

Au Contraire


The reference to no hopers was specific to the postings where people couldn't master basic spelling. This is an ongoing theme in aviation training. Those that have the money, spend the money, but will never earn the money. Seen it, taught it, talk about it.

Survival of the fittest was once again a comment on someone elses posting. The most fit right now are the ones who HAVE NOT spent any money getting an IR or an ATPL exam sequence. They are fit because their PPL and CPL and hours do not expire - they merely exist in a logbook, forever at no cost. Those that have acquired a Multi rating or an Instrument Rating are counting down against a £392hr clock.


I make people sit up and listen.


You just don't necessarily like it.



3 years ago I was pumping out the message to do an Integrated course, apply to CTC and to self sponsor your type rating if need be. I called it 'a golden age for wannabesim'.

Read your own context as is your right. But without knowing your history you're only going to make yourself look ignorant.

WWW



ps Flying_Shortly - now you mention it, you're not worthy, you're banned for a week - goodbye. :E

I think it was more to do with the unnecessary use of offensive language. If you can't express yourself without using those sort of words, (even if they're covered up with an emoticon) don't express yourself at all.

The reference to no hopers was specific to the postings where people couldn't master basic spelling.HAVE NOT spent any monty:E

(sorry couldn't resist)


Survival of the fittest was once again a comment on someone elses posting. The most fit right now are the ones who HAVE NOT spent any monty getting an IR or an ATPL exam sequence. They are fit because their PPL and CPL and hours do not expire - they merely exist in a logbook, forever at no cost. Those that have acquired a Multi rating or an Instrument Rating are counting down against a £392hr clock.
I think it comes down to the issue of money. If you can afford to keep yourself current then I would rather be on the 'keeping current' rather than the training end of the proverbial drag curve. Personally I’m going to buy a share in an aircraft once my licenses are done (probably a da42) and keep current and building hours.


:}

student88 - please point me towards the offensive language so I can moderate it.

Thanks,


WWW

You just don't necessarily like it.I am totally disinterested. I am neither a wannabe nor someone who works at an FTO. Whether I like the message or not is irrelevant.

For the record, I understand what you are trying to do here, agree with it and admire your efforts towards what is quite obviously a thankless task. However... if you are interested in reaching the target audience (the person just about to sign on the dotted line) then I beleive more could be acheived by toning down the rhetoric, which has become particularly strong recently.

Is the message really getting through? I see that Oxford is putting on an extra course due to not being able to meet demand on its August / September Integrated course!! :eek:

You hear lots of people saying that they don't even read pprune anymore because of the relentless slagging off of anyone who wants to train. As such, no matter how much good advice is given here, it won't even reach those most in need of hearing it. And all because its just delivered in such a rude way.

Flying Shortly's last post quite deservedly earned him "a rest" for his language, however, his feelings represent the silent majority here of hundreds of wannabes who equally deservedly feel a bit miffed at being called all manner of names for daring to suggest they want to fly professionally.

How about greater emphasis of the fact that the recruitment cycle by its very nature means things will inevitably pick up again at some time in the future? And that successful and enjoyable careers in aviation will still be there for those people willing to sit out this downturn for however long it lasts.

More people would listen.

well said artie :D

things will inevitably pick up again

Will they? In one year? In five years? Never? My guess is five years. Based on the fact that housing market correction has barely begun, that public spending cuts are yet to be implemented and that unemployement is predicted to get much worse. Plus, Mervyn King is not happy about the way government is stoking up the debt. And there are still concerns about the sate of the banks

It doesn't matter what you think of WWW and his attitude - the fact is, he has no axe to grind and clearly, he knows what he's talking about.

Artie - I'm not Jesus Christ. I used to be, I used to strive to be balanced, measured, always offer encouragement and be as positive as possible in a complex world.

Scroggs was like that. Loads of Mods have been like that. But it kills you. It is a chore. A millstone that drags you down.

The reason why I'm about the only Mod left standing from the original line up is that I don't filter my views and I no longer maintain an image. I post what I think and plenty hate me for it. But its so much easier internally. More rewarding. More honest.

PPRuNe make you brutal. You start ignoring PM's instead of composing a crafted personal reply. You start culling posts not with a scalpal but with a flame thrower. You stop worrying about people calling you names and just figure that two years from now it'll be someone else calling you different names.

Artie - do you really think PPRuNe could or would want to influence the numbers signing up to OATS? Sure lots of people say they don't read. Then do. And maybe lots don't. And maybe if I shut up more would.

But so what?

This isn't a popularity contest. The website needs fewer not more users.


Its as simple as this.



This is a shit time to start pilot training.



End of sermon.

WWW


PS swearing is a perk. :E

As said before, I like to concentrate on the positives rather than the negatives on this forum, I'll leave that to the pro's :ok:

So...

Ryanair plan to order 300 a/c by end of this year, true or not, time will tell!

Ryanair to order up to 300 new planes by year-end: O'Leary - Yahoo! News UK (http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20090627/tbs-ryanair-to-order-up-to-300-new-plane-5268574.html)


Times will change, you will see, talking about the bad stuff is all too easy, try the positive side. :)

If you enjoy flying, just fly privately until times change, keeping doing something that keeps you current and happy within yourself. Let time decide if the airlines is a wise move or not.

Yeah - I'm not sure about the RYR fleet expansion plan. It could be the ballsiest move since Maverick popped the speedbrake and Jester flew right by. Really - it could. Fortune favours the brave; the time to buy is when there is blood on the streets etc etc.

However, Stelios has blinked and said No. Apply the brakes. Is he cleverer than Michael O Leary. Probably not but maybe. Only time will tell.

History does contain a suprising number of airlines that over expanded into a downturn and bust themselves.

We shall just have to see.


I like talking about the positive side. Last year I had real fears that the worlds banking system might collapse. In the second week of September 2008 it VERY nearly did:

Banking Collapse of 2008: Three weeks that changed the world | Business | The Observer (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/28/markets-credit-crunch-banking-2008)


That's passed now and my bunker must become the hole for my swimming pool. My sniper rifle can be traded in for a shire horse and the gold buried under my begonias can be dug up and returned to the bank.

The rather more mundane and dull reality can now be confronted. Anemic growth, higher taxes and a rather tedious process of sorting out public sector pensions and other massive and massively boring issues.

There will be some jobs out there for Wannabes. Not many. But some.


WWW

Totally agree. Well at least we're now all on the right footing/path, sorting all this stuff out now.

Shows what a life style everyone lead before (on risk and greed) and the lack of safety nets in place (pre-Sept. 11th comes to mind). A new financial system will at least minimise this crap from happening again and also have a health/alert system in place. I'm sure that once things start to improve, the pension issues etc will be addressed in a reasonable manner and then flying will then become more realistic.

This will be major problem fixed, but what will be the next for the next recession? Is it possible to have a world without recessions with controlled growth and risk?

What we need to ask is what would have happend if this recession was delayed for a few more years = we would have had a bigger punch in the face.

This may stop people for the mean time getting loans, but my advice would be to try to save as much as possible for the future, therefore reducing your risk and size of loan required.

Be patient and let the governments/financial industries sort out the crap, especially as they caused it.

I see WWW can't take criticism. Just deletes posts he doesn't agree with. Maybe I should cancel the $225 USD I pay Pprune for my advertisement every month.

You really are on a power trip.

I'm really not.


Your deleted post from 21:03 last night was deleted by PPRuNe Towers. You make your living from owning a flying school do you not? If so then perhaps it is understandable that we have differences of opinion.

Unlike the various flying magazines the purchasing of advertising space doesn't dictate the editorial line here.

WWW

Still too much debt in the market and too little new lending.

Consistent with my post of last autumn, and some earlier comments I made last summer, I continue to await year-end results from companies (reporting Feb 2010) before I would call the bottom of this market.

Air travel is a leading indicator of recovery, and cargo / passenger yields are still falling, even if not as rapidly as before.

Ryanair is ordering for the continual Ryanair aircraft trading company that they try to operate. Contrast number of deliveries to Ryanair against number of aircraft operated...they flog them for many times what is paid to Boeing.:ooh:

Either the banks ain't lending or there is no appetite for housing still.



Weak mortgage lending hits UK housing recovery - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article6600881.ece)


Weak mortgage lending hits UK housing recovery

Hopes of a recovery in Britain's battered housing market were dealt a setback today when new data for May revealed a weaker than expected number of mortgage approvals and the lowest rise in lending on record.

A total 43,414 mortgages were approved in May, just up from 43,191 in April, the Bank of England said. Analysts had expected a figure closer to 46,000.

In a further illustration of the continued fragility of the market net mortgage lending during May rose by just £324 million, a third of the level in April and a tenth of the amount loaned at the same time a year ago. The increase was the weakest since records began in April 1993.




The BoE figures show that around £19 billion was being MEW'd (Mortgage Equity Withdrawal) into the general spending economy by 2007. Turning off a £19bn money tap was always going to cause a recession. Unless and until house price inflation returns we are going to have to live with a new, smaller economy, able to support fewer airliners and fewer pilots.

Shoes yet to drop include defaults on commercial mortgages, a slashing of public sector spending/jobs and, crucially, a return to normal levels of interest rates.

WWW

I have been of the opinion for a while that WWW is quoting articles and spouting off opinions to suit his own egotistical agenda there.

I've yet to see the end of the world as we know it.

Hard times; yes.

What the future has in store? Who knows... But I guarantee WWW won't be able to predict where we go with this one. Not even the best in business saw this recession coming. I'm sure not even WWW saw it coming and if he says he did I'd take that with a pinch of salt.

He makes himself out to be a God on this thread and it seems to be an obsession of his. Let him at it. I've no time for people who float their own boats and certainly have no time for those that suck up in the process...

Over and out...

Afternoon All,

Well it's certainly true that no-one knows what the future will hold. I've bashed WWW in the past for spouting doom and gloom but sadly most, not all, but most of said doom and gloom has come true. As I've bumbled on through my training I feel like I've matured and had a rude awakening with regards to the state of the airline industry. With that in mind and having just finished my CPL, I'm taking some time out before starting my IR and would advise others to do the same. It's been an awful 12 months and unfortunately I would have to concur with WWW that things are still remarkably fragile. On the plus side things WILL pick up, we don't know when, but things will definitely start getting better in the not too distant future. Something that does bother me is the number of people I seem to see diving head first into an FIC at a cost upwards of £5k but with no real hope of an instructors job on completion. It seems to be seen as a way out but in reality it could well be just a way of going further in debt. It's a great thing to do if you've got some prospect of even part time work from it but if not then it just seems like yet more money spent needlessly.

2W2R :ok:

Delivery of message aside, I cannot dispute WWW's sentiments and I am amazed he has the stamina to keep it up - and I hope he continues to do so even if it saves only a few people from making - IMHO - a poor decision. :ugh:

I think the party may come to an end soon as we must be approaching a potential sky rocket of training loan defaults which will cause the remaining bank(s) providing funding for pricey integrated courses to withdraw these risky products.

When I started integrated training in August 2007, the signs to the layman seemed relatively positive and this thread and its predecessor were not around. Unfortunately the poo hit the proverbial fan 4 months or so before my course finished and all the courses since then have been churning out with little or no prospect of useful employment. Even the former stalwart of Ryanair has dried up.

So I find it amazing that guys & girls (be they direct from school or career changers) are making what appears to me to be such a shocking decision to start training at the moment for a career where their decision making decisions really could be life or death. :confused:

I was incredibly fortunate to be among the last 7 taken on by NetJets and not a day goes by when I don't think about how much this lucky turn of events has saved me from continual sleepless nights worrying about money - and I largely funded my training with savings from my previous employment.

I can definitely identify with ambitious hopefuls wanting to get right on with it - but the necessity for a backup plan by way of a fall back career if/when things don't pan out is stronger than ever.

All well and good "wanting" to order 300 aircraft, however, aside from the PR aspect, it has to be taken into context of the orders and option terms.

This doesn't necessarily mean that Ryanair will expand from 200 to 500 aircraft in its fleet.

Without knowing the terms of the options / orders we have no idea over what term these order options will be integrated into the fleet; or if these will be replacing aircraft in the current fleet when maintenance support agreements expire or are due for renewal and current fleet aircraft are returned and shunted down to second and third tier operators, with their aircraft being shunted down to lower tier operators.

Or indeed, what the financial terms negotiated are.

It would be shrew move to negotiate option terms right now when the manufacturers are facing deferred deliveries and reduced orders right now, with options to defer delivery or trade off future positions during the next market upswing is a good move.

However, don't take it that a "want" to place orders for 300 aircraft means it "will" be done and that it means the fleet will "expand" by the amount ordered.

...crucially, a return to normal levels of interest rates.

WWW much of what you write makes a great deal of sense, but you've commented a couple of time on a return to "normal interest rate levels". Increasingly more and more economists and economic organisations are predicting a slow and protracted climb out of recession. This would tend to suggest low interest rates for a some time yet, similar to Japan's experience over the past two decades.

I'm pretty pessimistic about the immediacy of recovery, but see an extended period of low interest rates as being one of the few silver linings.

If anything is unnatural at the moment, it is the low cost of fuel - and it is quite possible that will rise even within an extended recession.

This is a shit time to start pilot training.

Well, with all due respect to WWW, it's always a shit time to start pilot training.

I rarely post in here, and when I have its usually to recommend people do not attempt to follow this career path. But the fact of the matter is that some people are going to do it anyway. Regardless of the expense, risk, and mediocre career prospects, there will always be people that will give it a go because it's a vocation; there are people that simply must fly.

If you are such an individual, then now is possibly a less shit time than it often is. Forget about who might be hiring in 18 months time; that's always pure conjecture. The only definite is the nature of the training market right now. I don't keep an eye on that side of things anymore, but on past experience downturns usually drive it towards being a buyers market.

Undergoing Pilot training is ultimately an emotional decision. My advice is get off the fence. If you're going to do it, get on with it. If you're not, get serious about some other career and stick with it.

pb

The Old FAT One ........
The low interest rate is one of the few saving graces at the moment as you rightly point out. If they were to sharply rise it would be a disaster for households all over the UK.

As for the fuel price.... anyone notice the 3p one hit increase at the pumps week before last? Most of my flying is done around the south coast where there have been several large tankers parked up off the Isle of Wight for weeks waiting for the oil price to rise before coming in to Fawley Refinery. The increase in oil has already started again and I fear it will be the final nail in the coffin for one or two carriers this winter if it continues. :uhoh:

Jbayfan has a very valid point.

He spends $225 a month to advertise on this site. Presumably that is an expense that is calculated to show a profitable return? The point of any advertising is get customers through the door spending their money with you rather than somebody else. It is also a considered investment that hopefully raises the profile of an advertiser within the target audience. I agree that a forum such as this should not simply pander to the wishes of its advertisers in regard to editorial matters. They pay for an advert not for editorial policy. The problem here is that the moderation however infuriating or annoying, should be perceived as balanced and fair. That is by definition the role of moderation or arbitration. Judges, moderators and arbitrators will make decisions that are perceived as unfair to one or other (and sometimes all) parties, from time to time. There is however a problem when the moderator, arbitrator or judge allows the cult of personality to overtake the role itself. I think any comparison to Jesus is perhaps unhelpful in this regard?

The moderator shouldn't normally be the resident opinion driver or expert witness, since that clearly compromises the role. Nothing wrong with being an opinion driver or expert witness, but it corrupts the balance and fairness of that opinion or comment, by hanging the badge of "moderator" on the participant. There is little perception of fairness in an argument when the other party or other parties expert witness is also the presiding judge.

Flying schools, are not fundamentally any different from most other businesses. They survive by profit. That can only happen by keeping customers coming through the door and spending money. It doesn't matter if its a flying school, an estate agent, a stockbroker or a Ferrari dealer. The same fundamentals of business apply. All of these businesses will market and promote their business. Everybody with a TV set and an ounce of wit, knows the economy is in trouble and spending is being strangled by the actual and perceived loss of disposable income, and the rapid and large reduction in the availibility of consumer and business credit. Despite the realities, the businesses will only survive if they can succesfully convince people that now is the right time to invest in flight training, invest in property, buy stocks and shares, and still make those aspirational purchases. They can sell you what you want, not necessarily what you need. It is much harder to to that today than last year, and they will all need to invest a lot of time effort to convince you that your desires should still be fulfilled and satisfied.

The problem flying schools and their customers face, although they naturally seek to mask it, is threefold. Firstly the economy is in rapid decline, and as well as having to work harder to get customers through the door, they also need to work harder to convince those customers that their own "dreams" will be ready to blossom at some convenient point in the future. This is the crystal ball factor, in that it is a prediction, and therefore anybodies guess.

The second problem is new competition. That competition is in the form of the airlines themselves, who have realised a new market in selling those "jobs" that their customers aspire to. A type rating and a few hundred hours of "vital and necessary" experience has become something of a money spinner for those companies that have seen the new business opportunity to sell a role that was previously a major expense. With no shortage of potential customers at this time, that business is expanding. In turn it has weakened wage pressure at the bottom of the existing F/O scales, for experienced and ex-military job seekers coming into the airline pilot market.

The third problem is a regulatory one. Compulsory retirement ages, and certainly in the major Western economies, have been raised significantly in recent years. In some cases by as much as 10 years from age 55 to age 65. Although the laws of natural attrition mean that not all senior pilots would necessarily be able to take advantage of those changes, it has nevertheless had a major impact on the role of retirement in the job market. The decline in the economy, the weakness in the pension market, and the fact that those affected normally enjoy some of the best terms and conditions in the industry means there is a strong uptake of senior pilots (and mainly Captains,) who are working for anything up to 10 years longer than planned. In many cases these pilots will also be enjoying the additional benefits afforded them by the fruits of their existing or historic pension planning. The nett affect is a rapid reduction of turnover at the top, which is also reducing wage pressure at the top and all the way through the pilot labour market.

Airlines have never had a burning desire to recruit 250 hour pilots. Never! That has only ever happened historically in a few isolated examples, where a large national carrier had its own training establishment (BOAC/BEA Hamble,) or in more recent times (CTC/FTE/Oxford etc.)when an airline saw a cost advantage in tying a structured licence training / type rating programme to its own seasonal needs, with the possibility of a permanent job at the end of the probationary period. Historically airlines sought the best and most experienced applicants from career improvers or crossover ex-military pilots. From a cost point of view, if they could have got away with only one expensive pilot in the cockpit, they would have jumped at the chance. They couldn't, but selling the second seat is certainly the next best (if not better) thing.

It might well be that this all changes at some point in the future, and I can certainly see potential causes of such a change, however the idea that an upswing in the general economy will create a raft of real new jobs for 250 hour pilots, who will be paid a good salary rather than expected to pay, is difficult to see. If these seats are not going to be cash generators, then the airlines will do what they have always done and seek the best experienced and qualified pilots to fill them, at whatever rates the spot market then dictates.

In summary, this is a little like the aftermath of an air crash. You can speculate all and as wildly as you like, however look carefully at the evidence and piece together the reality and you will likely come to a more accurate and beneficial reason, answer and conclusion, even if it is something you would rather not have to accept.

As for the fuel price.... anyone notice the 3p one hit increase at the pumps week before last? Most of my flying is done around the south coast where there have been several large tankers parked up off the Isle of Wight for weeks waiting for the oil price to rise before coming in to Fawley Refinery. The increase in oil has already started again and I fear it will be the final nail in the coffin for one or two carriers this winter if it continues. http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/worry.gif

Yes indeed the oil price has been creeping back up.. The situation in Iran is cause for concern over the oil prices. Further, OPEC are looking to cut production to push prices back up.

Not even the best in business saw this recession coming

Not true, what a sweeping statement.

You might want to watch this......

YouTube - Michael O'Leary Discusses Ryanair Profits (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wGkbzOk3Jc)

He clearly predicted it almost to the exact timing, extent and detail.

dublin_eire - I did predict a house price crash and a recession and a credit crunch. I spent the latter half of 2007 here arguing with people about it. To quote myself randomly from the period:


http://www.pprune.org/3556805-post87.html

17th Sept 2007

Getting loans for training is going to get a LOT harder and more expensive.

House prices are falling and probably will fall substantially and this removes the source of funding for at least half of all Wannabes (either releasing their own or parents equity).

There may be fewer training in the near future or possibly just more on the Modular path.

However, the real story is the looming recession and it effects on airline hiring. Airlines tend to lead in and out of recessions.

The music *may* be about to stop...

WWW



And

http://www.pprune.org/3703286-post21.html

15th Nov 2007

Parents with large equity pools and solid incomes may gift their children the means to go on any flying training course they wish. But this is only a fraction of the people who self sponsor their training every year.

Many remortgage their own modest properties. Sometimes to 125% of their market value (see Northern Rock's Together mortgage for an example). Many rely on a PDL, CDL, the Any Purpose loan topped off with a consolodation loan (hello - is that OceanFinance/PictureLoans etc) and a few credit cards on 0% interest.

It is the latter group - not the ones with wealthy parents - that are in most immediate trouble when credit dries up and house prices fall even slightly.

This will probably effect Modular just as much as Integrated. Though at a time when airline hiring is shuddering to a marked slowdown you might be considered a bit mad for going Integrated.

Remember, the house price falls and credit crunch are only just beginning. There is a long way to go yet. And at every stage there will be a Flying Training Industry telling you that there has never been a better time to train.

Its what they do.



Good luck,

WWW


So Son, you take what I say with a pinch of salt all you like, but I've called it early and I've called it correctly so far. Might be wrong next time but at least I've got a track record that Anatole Kaletsky and David Brown would kill for.




The Old Fat One - normal post war interest rates would be just above 5%. The bond market is pricing in UK Interest Rates higher than this. With the nation selling billion pound Gilts by the barrel the IR's will have to go up to entice foreign buyers to buy HM Treasuries debt. Public spending down, Interest Rates up, many years of hard slog and the countries finances MIGHT just be back to respectable. Interest Rates at 10% of their normal level was an emergency response to a crisis. It cannot and will not last because if it did Fiat currencies would start to fail. For the sake of forgoing 0.5% interest on paper money I for one would start using Gold and avoid the governments banking system with its taxes and fees..


Capt Pit Bull - thanks for your visit here and your comments. I am aware that its always a gamble and always difficult. But at work out of 6 dispatchers I deal with 2 of them has CPL/IRs. Trained at a well regarded Integrated school one of them was even sponsored by GAPAN. They are filling out loadsheets for Servisair on £16k with £80k's worth of expensive training going rustier by the day. They are both brilliant, personable, intelligent, gifted people with every box ticked. Nothing. Not a hope. No flying job. Anywhere. On anything. Trying all year. I don't want more people to put themselves in that hole. No other agenda.



Bealzebub - welcome back. We haven't had a chat since you got all shirty about planned bankruptcy amongst wannabes wish to train on credit and then dispose of their debts.

You say:

The problem here is that the moderation however infuriating or annoying, should be perceived as balanced and fair. That is by definition the role of moderation or arbitration. Judges, moderators and arbitrators will make decisions that are perceived as unfair to one or other (and sometimes all) parties, from time to time. There is however a problem when the moderator, arbitrator or judge allows the cult of personality to overtake the role itself. I think any comparison to Jesus is perhaps unhelpful in this regard?

Arsebiscuits to that. Frankly. I'm an immoderate moderator and always have been. This forum, unlike the dire dull attempts elsewhere, is lively and full of debate. It even has people who aren't wannabes contributing to it. Which is flipping unique..

I take a strong view in only one aspect of Wannabeism. I talk of the merits of Integrated or Modular for example. I just call the employment market as I see it and I do see it sometimes as shit because sometime it is. This MATTERS. This really really matters to youngster taking enormous debt obligations based on being able to find a proper paying job 18 months down the line. People lose their houses, their partners and their lives based on this decision.

I knew someone who topped themselves in the early 1990's recession because he ended up losing his house and putting his wife and children in a council house. He couldn't get a flying job and the banks bankrupted him.

This is, to coin a phrase, serious shit.

On this forum we have a deep pool of an audience in potentially exactly this situation. All around are glossy adverts, politicians and Vested Interests urging them to plunge in - the waters lovely. It bloody isn't, its full of jelly fish and weeds and its bloody freezing.

If me saying so pisses you off then instead of trying to shut me up then you are perfectly free, for free, to write here and persuade the readership otherwise. Fair?



WWW

WWW,

You are 100% correct. No-one in their right mind should lay down good money for pro flight training. Why?

I believe there is no good future in aviation. The industry has peaked and is in rapid decline. As is the car industry, the property market, the investment banking business, and many many others. And that is because our industrial world is in a dramatic era of slowdown. Which is not about to reverse itself. Probably never.

This is not news. This is a majority opinion in nearly every relevant news publication.

Pilots, including experienced bods, are notorious for adopting ostrich strategies. Been guilty of it myself. Prospective pilots be warned. Find work elsewhere and save your money. On no account borrow to do this. It's a profession I love, and it is on its knees. I discouraged my son, and he's thanking me for it.

And WWW. Please don't bust a gut trying to contradict the "experts" that are masters of wishful thinking, particularly those who also have vested interests. They aren't worth a bean.

Bealzebub - welcome back. We haven't had a chat since you got all shirty about planned bankruptcy amongst wannabes wish to train on credit and then dispose of their debts.

If you had searched a little deeper you would have seen that we have. In fact you have stickied a couple of more recent contributions. However on the subject of your promotion of planned bankruptcy (something I assume you haven't availed yourself of?) you then go on to say.
I knew someone who topped themselves in the early 1990's recession because he ended up losing his house and putting his wife and children in a council house. He couldn't get a flying job and the banks bankrupted him.

Not a strong position to be promoting the merits of bankruptcy then? Unless you believe doing it to yourself, is less potentially depressing than somebody else doing it to you?

Far from trying to shut you up, you have been given a pedestal from which to preach and you use it to full effect. Nothing wrong with been a campaigner for whatever cause you choose, or for being completely immoderate. However it is a contradiction to declare yourself immoderate and then hang the badge of moderator from your name. Your opinions, observations and predictions are no more or less valid than mine or anybody elses generally speaking, however this pedestal provides you with a pulpit that you truly believe gives you a greater stature than your comments would ordinarily deserve.

I have no other agenda than to say what I see is happening in the market. If anybody pays any heed to those comments, that is up to them. If you feel your role is to act as a counterbalance to the promises and claims of the pilot training industry, then that is fine. It is of course a counterbalance and not a moderation or arbitration. You are rather doing a David Ike I think, and shooting yourself in the foot in the process. Nevertheless if you feel you once were Jesus, and you have a Uri Geller insight into the future that others don't possess, who am I to argue while you bleed into your new swimming pool. It is not a case of shutting you up. If you read my other posts you will see that I argue for much of what you do. On the other hand you cannot complain that people disrespect the role of the moderator by throwing rotten fruit at it, when the role is used like a soapbox at speakers corner?

I've had my fair few encounters with WWW, particularly on the planned bankruptcy matter, but I completely disagree that moderating on this forum is anything other than fair.

This is the only forum (online or otherwise) of which I am aware that has such diversity of opinion and open analysis of the situation.

For someone about to spend £80k on a licence, this information is of paramount importance.

Yes, FIs and schools around the UK dismiss it as doom-mongering, but look where we are today, and how correct those predictions have proven to be.

Scroggs and WWW nurtured this place as a forum of debate an impartial information - where else is that the case?


Perhaps this thread (with this diversion) has run its course, and we should now start a new one entitled - "Have we reached the bottom?"

Perhaps this thread (with this diversion) has run its course, and we should now start a new one entitled - "Have we reached the bottom?"


Maybe when were a bit closer to the bottom, i still cant hear the pebbles land.

bealzebub - too right. I know a good man who orphaned his children and widowed his wife because of the banks bankrupting him. Perhaps it does colour my laissez faire attitude to using planned bankruptcy. Those bastards offered the loan, assessed the risk, ventured the money for profit and knew - ultimately - that if they got it wrong big enough that they would be rescued.

Money as debt.

Money as debt.

Money as debt.


Google it people.



Far from trying to shut you up, you have been given a pedestal from which to preach and you use it to full effect. Nothing wrong with been a campaigner for whatever cause you choose, or for being completely immoderate. However it is a contradiction to declare yourself immoderate and then hang the badge of moderator from your name. Your opinions, observations and predictions are no more or less valid than mine or anybody elses generally speaking, however this pedestal provides you with a pulpit that you truly believe gives you a greater stature than your comments would ordinarily deserve.



I haven't been given a pedestal. I've built a pulpit from scratch from 1998. Do you think Wannabes was automatically going to be one of the biggest busiest parts of PPRuNe? On most other sites the ever repeating dull nature of the the Wannabe forum exists as some echo chamber inhabited by 6 teenagers all trying to get excited by the Flyer roadshow and agonising whether to go to Oxford or Jerez.

David Ike, Uri Geller, Jesus; all these are utter losers whom I wouldn't piss on if fire - controversial enough yet? - so please don't bleat on my behalf that that people throw rotten fruit at me.

I have never deleted, supressed or punished people arguing the opposite of my position. Why would I - I spend a considerable amount of time working out how to generate animated discussion - when my vulantary role is to help provide a communication channel which didn't used to exist. IF I was a despot, tyrant I'd just delete your criticism at the wave of a mouse and nobody would be any the wiser. Its that easy. With three clicks and two button presses you would be banned and your last ten posts deleted.

Accusations of abuse of power are therefore hard to take seriously. Call me a pillock, say why, and I don't delete it. The power my postings have because I am a Moderator is slim. But earned. But earned.


I think 3 airlines will go bust this winter. I note Jerez has just knocked £5,000 of their course price...



WWW


ps For a change the tennis really is good..

Pluck this out of your bottom as we're being all frivolous - you're banned!

WWW

Well I suppose this allusion to megalomania is something of an act. I suppose I should be grateful that you haven't deleted my posts or banned me like the previous poster!

The power my postings have because I am a Moderator is slim. But earned. But earned. Earned from what? What is it you have earned that makes your opinion any more valid than anybody else who has either been a flying instructor or an airline pilot or both? There are plenty of vociferous posters on these forums and a spectrum of opinions. It is rare to see a moderator dominate a thread with their own partisan opinion. Even rarer to see one who threatens or actually bans a poster for taking a contrary viewpoint or position. Despite your protestation three posts above you then did that in the subsequent post.

Perhaps it would be better to take a step back and look at the wider picture rather than be too blinkered or overtly focused on only what you want to see. In fact isn't that the criticism you make of many of the posters on here?

David Ike, Uri Geller, Jesus; all these are utter losers whom I wouldn't piss on if fire - controversial enough yet?

Nice one WWW :hmm:. Up till now I was a keen follower of this thread and I enjoyed your insightful posts and agreed with much of what you said. But why the need for such comments? Have a rant by all means but comments like this just make you look like a prick.

I believe there is no good future in aviation. The industry has peaked and is in rapid decline. As is the car industry, the property market, the investment banking business, and many many others. And that is because our industrial world is in a dramatic era of slowdown. Which is not about to reverse itself. Probably never.

Yes... You forgot to mention the fuel.
First, nobody can predict what will be the fuel price if the recession stop. It was at 147$ one year ago.
Second we can speculate on the fuel reserve, but who can say we will have as much fuel as we want for the next 50 years?

I don' t think that good times are coming for airline pilots.
Better to be wise with your money spending and debts.

All what I hope is that I am wrong.

I have never deleted, supressed or punished people arguing the opposite of my position.

Agreed. But, speaking as one who was banned for "contributing nothing but sniping at (a) moderator" I would have to say that Bealzebub has a point. At the time I was banned, I was merely trying to point out that many would not react well to the tone of delivery by the thread moderator. There has been a load of good stuff here but many people have switched off to the arrogant and condescending manner in which some of the messages have been delivered. Disappointing really - Judge and jury springs to mind. Indeed, if one were to try and report this thread or a particular post within the thread (for example one which allows the privilege of swearing) I guess that report would go straight to the accused.

Many forget that internet forum are the worst possible place to get a balanced view on life. Any who post here (self included), should be met with a degree of cynicism. This thread has been abused and should be looked at by the pprune hierarchy for what it is. Of course, they own the thread and will do whatever they wish. Finally, most of us aspire to 'earn' things to better ourselves. Earning one's position as a mod on pprune seems to me to be a sad, very sad, claim to fame. Then again, I've probably been sad enough to waste 10 minutes of my life typing this post which has a high risk of being deleted. :)

Adieu.

House prices rose by 0.9 per cent in June, the Nationwide Building Society said today, fuelling hopes the property market is beginning to stabilise.
The average house price in June stood at £156,442, compared with £154,016 in the previous month.
While the monthly rise of 0.9 per cent is below the 1.3 per cent increase in prices for May, the measure of growth over three months revealed the first rise since December 2007.


House price recovery edges ahead with 0.9% rise - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6607374.ece)

www may have predicted the house price crash but i'm predicting a house price boom starting now :suspect:

Pluck this out of your bottom as we're being all frivolous - you're banned!

WWW


Ummmm what's brought on this splurge of banning people WWW.....come (http://www.....come) off it, his comments were hardly offensive or even rude!

Out of interest which 3 do you think will go then??? I'm assuming you've got an idea to have come up with that figure.....

On the 9th of November 2008 WWW said:

I promise Wannabes on pain of eating my Kangaroo skin hat with salt and pepper that in 2009 several significant EU airlines will go bust. By several I mean >10 and by significant I mean having more than >30 jets.On the 29th of June 2009 WWW said:


I think 3 airlines will go bust this winterInteresting.

In only a matter of months WWW has revised his own supremely confident economic predictions by about 75%.

This forecasting lark might not be as easy as it looks...

WWW,

I sincerely hope you put all your psychic powers to good use and short sold on banking shares! A man of your talent should be wheeling dealing and not typing typing...

:}

Agreed with above... Your immoderate moderating is a bit sad...

Sincerely hope that doesn't get me banned for purely sharing an opinion...

WWW, you make a convincing argument and your advice to those considering starting training is sound. But I can't understand why you want to undermine your argument by banning anyone who may be a bit cheeky:confused:

I'm sorry people feel the way they do. Yes you may have dreams and aspirations of one day becoming an airline pilot. Hell, pay your money, do the courses, get the ticks in the boxes, stay current whilst you work elsewhere, but 5 years down the line, do not look back and regret it. You do it because you want to. You do it because your partners/parents/wives and children all backed your decision.

Just take a step backwards and look at the big picture. Common sense says it will be difficult for the 'foreseeable future' and even then, it's not going to be the same as it was.

I trained to fly helicopters with a dream to fly commercially years ago. I and many others took our time. Bit by bit, and when there was suddenly a hiring boom in the North Sea, we grabbed ourselves an IR (40k+ in some cases) and were lucky enough to get jobs. Others followed closely behind us and ended up with the same qualifications, all paid for by borrowing money and guess what? That boom finished. That was 3 years ago. Look where we are now. The companies are hurting. Money for leasing in aircraft, to replace the old, isn't easy to come by anymore. Swings/roundabouts.

WWW has made some absolutely spot on observations over the last couple of years and I totally agree with everything he says. maybe because we see it from the other side to the wannabes? I don't know. I get people ring me regularly asking if I know of any offshore jobs. I tell them all the same thing. Nope! Onshore helicopters is even worse. Just ask any onshore helicopter pilot about the market right now.

You may not like what WWW says, but hell, go to another forum and hear what you want to hear and good luck. As I said, go get those qualifications because at the end of the day, it's what you want to do. Just don't say you never knew about the harsh realities of life in aviation during boom and bust. :ouch:

It was a frivolous ban that expired at midnight like Cinderellas carriage. Spare me the indignant rages.

It was 3 UK airlines that I was referring to - my previous forecast was for the EU area.

I'd listen to helimutt - he sounds as if he knows what he is talking about.

dublin_eire - yep, thanks, I was plenty bearish on bank stocks before the collapse.


I think any talk of house price crashes being cancelled sits uncomfortably with the news today:


Video: UK economy shrinks at fastest rate for 50 years - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6608270.ece)

UK economy shrinks at fastest rate for 50 years


The UK economy shrank by 2.4 per cent in the first quarter at the fastest rate in more than 50 years and far worse than expected, according to official figures today.

Revised figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that, between January and March, the economy contracted by its fastest pace since 1958. The ONS revised down its initial estimate, showing a contraction of 1.9 per cent.

Analysts had predicted that the revised numbers would show a 2.1 per cent fall in GDP.

Today's shock data is in part due to a change in methodology in the way that the ONS calculates construction and services output, but will do nothing to boost Alistair Darling's hopes of a recovery by the end of the year.




WWW

It was a frivolous ban that expired at midnight like Cinderellas carriage. Spare me the indignant rages.
Spare yourself the indignant rages and lighten up my Welsh friend..I think we have all got to the point where the line between your 'humour', and apparent egotistical arrogance has become just a 'bit' blurred!

clear prop!!! - you're consistent, I will give you that.


WWW

According to the flyer magazine the CTC ATP scheme is accepting applications again :suspect:

A good sign :confused:

;)

Nope. Was talking to a CTC Cadet a couple of weeks ago.....at the moment the hold pool, which aparantly has upto 90-100 ex-cadets in it, is not getting cleared so I can't really see an advantage to it. If I was in the hold pool indefinitely then at least you're on a list somewhere for a job....however I found out the other day that you're only allowed to remain in the hold poole for 12 months after completion of training :eek:. I personally wouldn't like to bet that I would be top of that queue within the next 2 years. Then again it's probably no more risky than any other way of training at the moment. Swings and Roundabouts.

2W2R :ok:

Quant,

The CTC ATP scheme has been re-opened for a several weeks now.

If selected, you pay £8,000 for an MCC course (even if you already have one) and then enter the holding pool. Depending on who you believe, the holding pool is around 80 deep and growing.

Even the FAQ on the website states that you are only placed with an airline once everyone else has gone. Those who went to assessment were told 2 years at best. I think that is optomistic.

In a nut shell, they have opened the scheme to take a load of 8ks from desperate wannabes to fill up empty sim slots. They have no realistic chance of a placement.

It's the way of the world at the minute I'm afraid.....

If selected, you pay £8,000 for an MCC course (even if you already have one) and then enter the holding pool

How much ??

you can get an MCC course on a full motion for two and half to three grand in the UK !!

In a nut shell, they have opened the scheme to take a load of 8ks from desperate wannabes to fill up empty sim slots.

Correct.

But I wonder whether they set a time limit on when you must attend the course after passing the assessment?

This is just nothing short of criminal!http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-forum/wtf.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

Please please please tell me there are some intelligent, future-to-be Professional Pilots not buying into this...???

This is just nothing short of criminal!http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-forum/wtf.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

Please please please tell me there are some intelligent, future-to-be Professional Pilots not buying into this...???


Nail well bashed on head JB. This is a disgrace to the industry, and as I said above, even if you do go down this road and end up in the hold pool they only let you stay there for 12 months after which you're booted out on you're own having paid £8k for a chuffing MCC!!!!

What a sad state of affairs!

2W2R

There is worse happening, just ask the cadets who are doing around 400hrs of work at ezy for free this summer, only to be told to sling their hooks come the autumn.

Knowingly taking on pilots desperate for hours, paying them nothing and then letting them go - that's a disgrace to the industry, and it is totally :mad:ing everything up for those who may wish to follow. If you want "seasonality" then you take on contract pilots on a temporary basis, and you pay them. Unfortunately the scheme CTC set up that has worked so well for a few thousand pilots over the last decade or so is now in a dire state. Their desperation to place cadets is allowing the likes of easyJet to raise the bar on immoral practices towards inexperienced pilots.

This is just nothing short of criminal!http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-forum/wtf.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)


Funnily enough, it may well be.

This is just nothing short of criminal

The fact that we have heard of many young guys and gals now flying with EZ, Thomas Cook and Monarch as a result of going through the ATP scheme makes us overlook the reality of CTC. Some of their tactics are quite immoral if you think about it.

MCCs are supposed to be teaching skills which are universally accepted by all airlines, but not CTC!

At £8K and in the current climate one really needs to ask if they are in effect buying a job from CTC! (we have better airline links, will cost you more money). The fact of the matter is, they could easily incorporate whatever it is they think you didn’t learn properly during your MCC into the TR. Somewhere there is a very fat profit margin.

This would not be tolerated if Ryanair did it. Are we supposed to be accepting it just because it’s CTC? That’s probably what some bright spark in CTC is thinking.

CTC and Ryanair do have one thing in common ... they both DO NOT recognise BALPA! :mad:

Make of that what you will :ugh:

Careful guys and girls, you'll be branded bitter and twisted if some of the people on the CTC forum hear you say this. Of course it is a joke, it is unforgivable.

Its exploitation. It makes me angry and confused. Confused because I thought by this point nobody would still be spending so much so willingly on training and licenses and schemes. I thought people wouldn't have the money.

Obviously they still have.

Mystery where it comes from though. Surely even the bank of Mum&Dad have even stopped lending now?

WWW

I wonder if the incoming money stream from suckers paying £8k for MCC courses and the like goes to pay for temp assignments for earlier candidates, the beneficiaries being the airlines and CTC management. The feature of such a scheme is that when the people at the end suddenly want their money (or a job), nothing is forthcoming. The money or jobs are not there. I imagine CTC are reaching that point.

It's not a pyramid scheme .... this is a trapezoid scheme so MUCH better - LOL

WWW
If you want something enough foolishly thinking the only thing blocking you from your so called dream life you will find and pay the £8k. There is always prostitution which is a good apprenticeship for the rest of your career!

There is always prostitution which is a good apprenticeship for the rest of your career!

I tried that - failed the Multi-Crew Co-Op section...

From todays Times:


Virgin cuts flights, threatening 600 jobs - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6619494.ece)


Virgin Atlantic chief executive Steve Ridgway said: “The outlook for the industry is as bleak as ever and all airlines are having to shrink their businesses.


Winter programmes are being slashed by the majority of UK airlines now. This winter is going to be vicious.


WWW

Well I would generally agree that this winter is going be to hard but on the other hand I keep hearing from a variety of Captain's that their airline has rumours of recruiting again within the next 6 months. Seems to be a stark contrast between what I and many of us believe will happen and what I hear is rumoured to be happening later in the year. Rumours are just rumours but they must have started somewhere at management level. I think you could toss a coin at the moment, it could go one way or the other.

For what it's worth, we have a seen a surprisingly dramatic improvement in sales in the last few months, with May sales up 25% on April, and June sales up 30% on May. A number of airlines (not lots, but a handful) are conducting assessments now, not just the obvious Irish LCC!

British Airways (BA) today announced plans to axe its annual spending plans by 20 per cent, ground flights and reduce its capacity forecasts for summer and winter.
The flag carrier, which is still in talks with unions over jobs and pay cuts, said today that it will reduce this year’s capital expenditure from £725 million to £580 million.
The airline said it expects spending to remain in line with the reduced target in the next financial year to 2011.
BA has been exploring a number of options to cut costs after making a £401 million full-year loss on rising fuel prices and falling passenger numbers as cash-strapped holidaymakers choose to stay at home.


BA axes spending by 20% as traffic tumbles - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6631361.ece)

Hey guys, it looks like right now is a fantastic time to start flight training. The future looks so bright.

PS, I'm selling rose-tinted glasses on ebay if anyone wants some but I feel a fair few have already bought some!!!:rolleyes:

;)

British Airways announced plans last night to cut its spending by one fifth and to cut capacity as it tries to preserve cash.
BA, which six weeks ago reported a record loss of £401 million, also confirmed that it was looking to reduce its workforce by the equivalent of 3,700 full-time jobs this year. That is on top of the 2,500 posts cut by BA, which remains in talks with unions, between June last year and this March.


British Airways prepares to make new cuts - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6632892.ece)

:sad:

I agree with you helimutt but i got to fly even though that means keeping my crappy job and flying on the weekends.

:}

The worst of the recession is over, according to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) business group, but talk of a recovery is premature.
Its report, based on a survey of 5,600 companies, found there had been "welcome progress" in confidence levels between April and June.


BBC NEWS | Business | Worst of the recession 'is over' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8137424.stm)

:p:8

I wish it was over, but I realistically doubt that it is.

The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5742937/The-unemployment-timebomb-is-quietly-ticking.html)




Thread creep: what can happen should you pay up-front.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/business/05loan.html?_r=1&emc=eta1

Key word "Worst" its not completely over obviously !! Would nice to think we have reached the bottom.

You'll know when the bottom has been reached and passed when the unemployment figures are dropping month on month.

I'm afraid to say that is unlikely in 2009 or 2010.

What was a decade long unsustainable boom is now over. Returns to normality will not feature a return to the NICE decade (Non- Inflationary Consistently Expansionary) situation whereby Ryanair and easyJet could be invented and grow to a fleet of 357 jets (BA has 228, Thomas Cook 44, BMI 54 for comparison).

Recent years have been an aberration. No unemployment whatsoever. £30k a year unearned income from house price inflation and mortgage equity withdrawal. Unconfined credit.

This is not, was not and will not be sustained again. As a consequence the demand for airline pilots has dropped and will drop.

Don't let anyone lie to you otherwise.


WWW

All assets go down in price during deflation except one: cash. Cash is the only asset that assuredly rises in value during deflation.

People should save there pennies rather than wasting such a valuable "asset" on pilot training durining a deflationary period.... :)

You'll know when the bottom has been reached and passed when the unemployment figures are dropping month on month.

Yes and right now we are still losing jobs every month like never before.

We are not really in a recession, sorry to say that. We are at a corner stone, we are in a period of change.

Clearly, we don' t really know what's going on. And we can only speculate on the future.

Why? What is new?

1-fuel reserve (or unstable price)/environment

2-the globalization of the economy/Asia

3-the share holders need a salary, not the employee anymore apparently

4-a new finance world that is unable to share their profit

That what appeared in the 80s 90s.

And what is sensitive to fuel speculation, to economy? Aviation.

Aviation will have to change. It has no choice.

We are not really in a recession, sorry to say that. We are at a corner stone, we are in a period of change.

Agree, were in a perlonged period of Deflation after the great impulsive growth cycle which started from 1933 to 2007*.

People need to dig their history books out and have a look what happened in the last great deflation between 1711 & 1784... Not the lesser 1929-32 correction. :)

*It can argued that 1999 was the cyclical top if paper assets such as the Dow Jones index are potted against Gold.
http://pricedingold.com/charts/DJIA-1900.pdf

It seems quite weird to compare the 18th Century to the 21st. I'm not ready to buy it. Times have changed. Technology has come. Government intervention is more widespread, for better or for worse and hard to tell the difference. Automated trades, automated trade halts, derivatives, news traveling at lightspeed. All give the tools for a crash to be far worse or for one to be prevented with the ultimate outcome depending on far more variables than were around 300 years ago.

I'm not ready to buy it. Times have changed.

They said the same thing During John Law's time in the 1700's ;)

Have a read of Charles Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of crowds (1852).

or Neil ferguson History of Money (2008) for a more modern day slant....

History is our only guide we have when trying to look towards the future.....

:)

And those who forget history are condemned to repeat it....

The quiet 'industry cull' is still ongoing...speaking to a mate this week who flies for a LE45 operator in the London area, has been forced a 25% pay cut and part-time roster...he's very happy he's kept his job.

I work for the UK's 3rd largest airline and despite speaking to a Director on one of my flights this week and hearing July holidays are 100% sold, August is almost there too - we have a pilot surplus, we a removing more aircraft from the fleet this winter...increasing the pilot surplus...

Beware November onwards...I would actually advise anyone who is presently undergoing training to reach a sensible point to stop...and get a paying job.

The possibility of a position as a pilot for anyone with zero experience and a new licence is, maybe, further away than we originally forecast...

Beware November onwards...I would actually advise anyone who is presently undergoing training to reach a sensible point to stop...and get a paying job.

sound advice :ok: however potential 'button pushers' (aka pilots) should also be aware that the oil price will start to rise when the economy gets better thus pushing up the cost of training. My advice would be to finish and get a paying job, if you can and play the 'keeping current game' :)

Right time to go to my paying job ;)

This ol' timer hasn't always agreed with WWW...but his post (2754) I believe to be spot-on.... tragically and awfully spot-on. Even if (and that's a very big "if") the UK economy is heading for Hell more slowly, there'll be a protracted plateau as we stumble along the bottom before gradually starting to recover... but that's the ECONOMY remember...and when it comes to recession, our industry is always first in and last out. There's already a sizeable bank of rated and experiened crew out there looking for jobs... and many more will be joining them before next Spring. Who out there with more than a single brain-cell would throw huge sums of money at training right now? Sincere good luck to one and all, I've been through a number of recessions since the early 70s...but nothing like this. Cheers bm:ugh:

Heard from a friend in Netjets that they are looking to cull 1/3 of the pilot workforce from the smaller jet end of the business!

Apparently the company are offering various 'options' including 1 year on, 1 year off, Redundancy package and off you go, x months on x months off etc.

Seems to be well run but is still a dramatic cull of up to 400 pilots!

BA are culling their winter schedule. The recently announced BALPA deal with BA to avoid compulsory redundancy has a line in it stating that the deal does not cover surplus generated due to reduction in future capacity!

The next year will continue to be extremely challenging. The 'surplus' sloshing around in the world will take a long time to be hoovered up. The future will be of longer rosters, fewer crew, shorter turrnarounds, reduced pay, more sectors etc.

Personally, if I were starting out now, I would take the advice above and either not start or, if I were in the process, finish and get another job until this all stabilises. Look at least two to three years from now and you might be ok.

Falls in house prices eased in June, offering fresh evidence that confidence is returning to the market, according to Halifax.
There was a 0.5 per cent decline in house prices in June, Halifax said. In the three months to the end of June, house prices declined by 1.9 per cent, the smallest quarterly fall since the first three months of 2008.
Martin Ellis, Halifax's housing economist, said: "These figures provide evidence that the underlying pace of house price decline is easing."
The June decline brought the annual fall in house prices to 15 per cent, taking down the value of the average home to £157,713.


Falling house prices ease in new recovery hope - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6666136.ece)

You could always do what I did. Go out and get the qualifications you need. Stay in your present job. When an opportunity arises in the future which is good enough to replace your present employment, then go for it. Some people get lucky. Some people wait 12 years! ppl 1994, full time pilot 2006! I was in no hurry though and even now, not bothered what happens.

Figures stated daily in the press about house price falls slowing, just means that things are still crap, but padded out to make it look like good news.
Oil finally dropping to more sensible prices today due to the slowdown. They'll fall further I feel. (wonder if petrol and diesel will come down in price?)

Estate agents and building societies are for ever stating that things in their market are "great, improving, you can't lose etc."
Of course it has nothing to do with the fact that they have a vested interest in talking up the market!
The fact is housing got to a vastly over-inflated level on the back of more borrowed money than the economy could withstand and until that problem is resolved, ie. a massive drop in prices, the ecomomy will continue to stagnate.
At least in the States they see that and slash prices to a level which becomes attractive. To my eyes property in the UK is still way over priced, especially when you consider how difficult money is to come by now.
This is going to take a very long time to see a real recovery.

Worldwide economic growth is expected to recover to 2.5% in 2010, says the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
That is higher than the IMF's earlier estimate of 1.9% growth next year, made in April, with the increase expected to be led by India and China.
But the IMF still expects the global economy to contract 1.4% this year.
For the UK, the IMF has revised down its 2009 economic forecast by 0.1% to -4.2%, but it now expects the economy to expand by 0.2% next year.
The IMF had previously said it expected the British economy to contract by 0.4% in 2010.


BBC NEWS | Business | IMF more upbeat on 2010 recovery (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8140357.stm)


:8

Every monthly fluctuation in average house prices tell us little as there is so much background noise.

The broad picture is amply illustrated by this graph:


http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs/generated/homepage.png



The reductions in public spending and period of high unemployment are yet to come into play. Interest rated cannot remain at 0.5% either. :( There are years of pain yet to come and so far things have been pretty mild.

Andy Harrison CEO of easyJet told me recently that he expects only three airline to post profits in the coming year. One of them was his, the other was Mr O' Learys and the third was Lufthansa.

I can believe that.


WWW

Nice chart....

The CMT's will say that £60 to £70K area is an easy eyeball first price target........

Interest rated cannot remain at 0.5% either.

Yes they will go lower.....;)

I don't think they will go lower. I believe what the Bond Market says. UK IR's are going back to normality and then higher. 7% would be my estimate. Commercial lending being 7% + margin.

Inflation beckons. Those who are hurt by inflation vote. A lot.

The Baltic Dry is collapsing again. The price of a shipping container from Japan to West Coast USA have slumped by a third to less than £700 since March. The system is badly badly damaged.

This Winter will be bad. Winter 2010 will be horrific for airlines.


WWW

Inflation..... in a self liquidating & non-self-liquidating credit contraction.....Kind of goes againsts your asset deflation posts?

It takes a long, long time to work off a 75 year credit cycle impulse.. before inflation can even think about rising its head...

Curve ball of course for (uk based) is a sterling crisis, but we wont panic retail just yet.... :))

We could indulge in a long and protracted discussion about deflation vs inflation and I've done so on other forums several times and know the arguments backwards. Suffice to say I'm not persuaded strongly either way but I have a bias towards inflation. I just bought a Stihl Kombi System petrol strimmer and they jumped in price by 9% on 1st July. My wifes Ford Focus was subject to a 4% price rise in June on all of Fords products. The Mars Bar in the vending machine at work is unchanged in price but now down to 27grams in weight.

I see asset deflation in houses. Inflation everywhere else.

But that would be a little too esoteric a discussion for this thread on this forum.


WWW

Yes we on the same page about inflation, just a question of time frame....:)

Of course you will see disparities between sterling & non sterling denominated core goods as you pointed out with your examples. Over all if we don't not have a significant Sterling correction againts the Major pairs then delfation is the primary driving force.

Its just good to see you pointing out some economic realities wannabes want to ignore..... :)

The following chart from FlightGlobal shows aircraft orders up to the first half of 2009.

After cancellations Boeing have a net order of just 1 aircraft and Airbus 68.

http://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getAsset.aspx?ItemID=29905

Full article: Airbus and Boeing see orders collapse as deliveries hit record levels (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/07/08/329407/airbus-and-boeing-see-orders-collapse-as-deliveries-hit-record.html)

What would also be needed to complete the picture is a table showing aircraft retirements. The deserts are filling up with parked aircraft..


WWW

The Nationwide Building Society has introduced a mortgage allowing borrowers to take loans worth 125% of the value of the home they are buying.


BBC NEWS | Business | Nationwide offers 125% mortgage (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8141584.stm)

A return to the bad old days? :sad:

Good time for a start up to buy a few a/c put them into storage and operate at a later date?

WWW

Your grasp of economics and the finanancial markets is impressive.

Presumably, armed with such foresight and knowledge, you are now fabulously wealthy, having played the markets like a true master of the universe?

Aircraft entering into the storage facilities in Az, Ca, Nm are not all retirements. Often these are placed into storage by the operators or lessors (asset owners) as economically that is the most appropriate implementation for them at this time.

In respect of retirements an aircraft is only retired when the data plate is cut off. That's it it will never fly again.

The decision to retire an aircraft is dependent on the type, the accumulated parts value its maintenance status and return to service considerations.

Often, it is the case that the lessor is better off to place the aircraft into storage and keep the write down on the asset, especially when there is little prospect of placing the aircraft onto contract at terms that are financially viable.

Yes there are aircraft going into storage, and yes retirements are occurring, though the retirements we have been working on are subject to maintenance status and recoverable parts values.

Likewise with the property market, many aircraft were bought at high values which are not achievable right now.

The Exec jet market is hurting too, there are a lot to choose from with both listed and un-listed aircraft. Its getting worse.

Right now i am seeing some very attractively priced assets for disposal, however, the financial capacity to fund acquisitions is not available.

Airbus and Boeing still have almost 7000 aircraft to build this tells a story in itself.

goods inflation is definietly on the cards for the next 12 months or so - in the retail head office i currently work in we are increasing prices across the board next year.

VAT likely to be returning to 17.5% (VAT reduction has been the biggest joke - 99% of retailers increased their prices after 3 months and have been pocketing the 2.5% difference thank you very much) but this has meant they are going to increase prices next spring summer to countinue the profit growth they have had from the VAT. Also poor $ exchange all means that retailers are have profit margins squeezed next spring summer seasons - standby for price hikes and inflation (80% of goods from China, paid for in $)

But perhaps the goverment wants inflation with the amount of money they have been printing (debt) that debt will now be worth less in real terms? perhaps an economist can clear that one up for me, I am just a wannabe CPL!

High inflation does erode the debts of those most heavily in debt in society which are people in their 30's and 40's with large mortgages and in paid employment. A few years of 8% inflation can make those mortgage debts shrink. The retired on fixed pension incomes would be much less happy.

However, broadly the retiring generation are in a much better financial position than their children so perhaps a transfer of wealth is in order. Unfortunately the older generation vote more often so this is politically difficult.

There has never been an example in a developed currency whereby printing money did not result in galloping inflation which usually needs constraining with high interest rates. Unfortunately the UK along with much of the West is in a least-worst scenario where all the options are pretty horrible.

Bottom line - the market needs not so many airline pilots as it once did.


WWW

But perhaps the goverment wants inflation

That hits the nail on the head.

They do want "monitorization" of debt. However like with any other large scale government "Projets" ... It makes the Deflation out look even stronger.

Money supply shows that "paper" is still being vaporized as soon as its coming of the press and will continue to do so for a long, long time...

Sadly we're in this for the long haul and it will have a devastating effect on aviation for years to come... :(

Sadly we're in this for the long haul and it will have a devastating effect on aviation for years to come... http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/sowee.gif

Quite true yet still there are people out there wanting to saddle themselves with huge debts and be tied into a contract with investors, just to rush and join the ranks of unemployed pilots! A recent advert on Angel Investment Network:

I am currently a student at *********** UK, I I have passed numerous assessments and currently hold a Private pilots license. However I am only 2 months into my course and have been told by Barclays bank that they will no longer fund it.
(There not funding it, you are with debt)

There is alot of security, in the way of life insurance, loss of medical license, loss of flying license insurance, as well as a skills protection plan, which states that if i fail due to lack of ability they will repay the full course costs.

I have done extremely well in my first set of exams. Upon completion of the course I am a fully qualified airline pilot. My family has invested the additional 29,000 required to complete the course, I simply need a corporate sponsor or investor that can lona the short fall of £37,200. This can be repayed within 5 years with a negotiable interest rate.The starting salaries are around £28,000+ benefits, and can expect around 71,000 after 5 years.

This is the best aviation training school in the world, I hope that an investor will be able to invest in me, to allow me to finish this training and enter a very skilled profession, with good stability and highly payed salaries to pay back the loan plus interest.

Thank you very much for your time
REQUIRED AMOUNT (http://www.angelinvestmentnetwork.co.uk/investor_tools/109?op=s1): £37,200
MINIMUM INVESTMENT AMOUNT (http://www.angelinvestmentnetwork.co.uk/investor_tools/109?op=s6): £10,000
INVESTMENT REASON (http://www.angelinvestmentnetwork.co.uk/investor_tools/109?op=s8): Other
Any takers?
What can I say, sand check, head check, bury head check......

People are still in a form of Bubble psychology... Can't blame them really.
Its become accepted behaviour over the past 30 years, that if "things" come down or pull back it must be a good time to buy into. Fine during a credit expansion but deadly in a credit contraction.

We just need to work through this mini "bailout bubble" phase before the herd reaches its "point of recognition" of true economic reality....

Recovery in the United States and other leading economies should herald a return to growth by the end of this year or early in 2010, Tim Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary said today.
In an upbeat message after talks with Alistair Darling in London, on the first leg of an international tour to Europe and the Middle East, Mr Geithner conceded that significant threats to the global outlook were still persisting.
But the Treasury Secretary said the foundations for an upturn in the US and elsewhere had been laid.
“I think the policies have been very effective in arresting, in mitigating the force of the storm and we’re starting to see a better basis for recovery starting to be made in the US.


US economy 'may return to growth this year' - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6701260.ece)

:hmm:

The market for business class travel, which has been in free-fall since the start of the recession, could take at least five years to recover, the head of British Airways’ American operations has said.
Premium rate passengers, first and business class, have traditionally been BA’s lifeblood. But Simon Talling-Smith, executive vice president for BA in the Americas, said that with nearly 70 per cent of businesses slashing their travel budgets and with companies increasingly moving executives into economy class or relying on video conferencing instead of face to face meetings, airlines had their work cut winning back that business.
"BA’s view is that it will take quite a long time, potentially more than five years, before the full value of the business market returns," he said.
"Right now [businesses] are putting more people into economy class. Our business and first class business volumes have fallen by around 15 per cent, but economy volumes have fallen by about 1 per cent [for the six months to June 2009]. One could reasonably guess that a certain number of business class customers are down trading to economy."


Plenty of time to get your licenses done and build hours :ok:

Well, just like me going modular is the best way to do it nowadays and I'm glad I have! 4/5yrs to play with is good, just keep current with the flying! ... With much less/minimal debt, it means that the salary can be spent on other things rather that paying back big loans.

Don't aim for BA after graduation unless your Integrated or have something like 1500hrs experience (I think on jet).

Found some other positive news from the other side of the world:

BBC NEWS | Business | Singapore's economy bounces back (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8149069.stm)

:ok:

FT.com - Cathay Pacific

Published: July 14 2009 09:01 | Last updated: July 14 2009 09:26

Eat my shoots. A month ago Tony Tyler, chief executive of Cathay Pacific, swatted away concerns over a rights issue by telling analysts that things had stopped getting worse. Traffic figures for June, released on Monday, tell a different story. Passenger numbers fell the most, year-on-year, since the peak of Sars. Even with big capacity reductions, load factors weakened further. Don’t even ask about premium, about two-fifths of total revenues.

Mr Tyler cannot be blamed for misreading the outlook, or for trusting faulty forecasting tools. Even so, it is time to ask the awkward questions again. Does Cathay need a recapitalisation? And could its shareholders be relied upon to back it? Swire Pacific, the largest holder with 40 per cent and manager of the airline, would presumably deliver the goods. But Air China, holder of 17 per cent, is living hand to mouth. Citic Pacific, with another 17 per cent, is still shaking off a record annual loss as it refocuses on specialty steel, iron ore and Chinese real estate.

There would be something absurd about Cathay, a company with net debt to equity of about 100 per cent, tapping up Air China, where the ratio is about 250 per cent. But the facts are uncomfortable. Cathay’s gearing is more than double its own 20-year average, at a time when operating metrics have rarely been worse. A succession of regional peers – including Qantas, ANA and Malaysia’s AirAsia – has raised equity in recent months.

And the capital gap between Cathay and Singapore Airlines, the sector prefect with net cash, is widening. Total debt to equity at the Temasek-backed carrier is not far off its average 10 per cent since 1990; it has said it is seeking opportunities in China or India. Mr Tyler will want to focus on signs of recovery at Cathay’s interim results next month. Investors may not let him.

BACKGROUND NEWS

Cathay Pacific Airways this week released combined Cathay Pacific and Dragonair traffic figures for June 2009 that show a sharp fall in passenger numbers compared to the same month last year, in part due to the impact of the Influenza A (H1N1) outbreak. There was also another marked year-on-year drop in the amount of cargo and mail carried.

In June, Cathay Pacific and Dragonair carried a total of 1,738,413 passengers – a drop of 18.1 per cent against the same month in 2008 – while the load factor fell by 4.5 percentage points to 76.8 per cent. Capacity for the month, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), was down 9.1 per cent.

Tipping points: sorry to say that we've arrived at one. This isn't a normal recession and what follows won't be a normal recovery. Chickens coming home etc and other metaphors. M3 + level of public debt is the narrative.

Turbulence ahead; fasten seat belt sign on; head between knees; barf bag at the ready: Barf. Feel better? You shouldn't - it's not over yet.

Not a good time to load up on debt with only the implied promise of a false dawn as a bail out.

The M3 figures are showing the same numbers that they did months before the Lehmans collapse and credit crunch I.


Eurozone falls into deflation as M3 money supply shrinks - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5700653/Eurozone-falls-into-deflation-as-M3-money-supply-shrinks.html)

Eurozone falls into deflation as M3 money supply shrinks
First time the region has tipped into deflation for the first time since modern records began half a century ago.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Published: 8:00PM BST 30 Jun 2009

The eurozone region has tipped into deflation for the first time since modern records began half a century ago. The M3 money supply has contracted over the last three months, flashing warning signs of potential trouble in six to nine months' time.



I'm not actually related to Ambrose..


WWW

'Hearing 100 more to go at Virgin!

Why its different this time...



http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/3793/totalcreditdebtpercenta.jpg





'nuff said,


WWW



Actually, it isn't. What this shows is that people are as poor as they ever were. Owning a newish BMW, a home and a Villa in Spain really is just for the wealthiest 3 or 4%. The only way such lifestyle extravagance was extended to around a third of the population was by extending credit. People were willing to spend on servicing debt and thereby fund massive consumption.

Part of that massive consumption binge was Air Travel. Which, with Ryanair and easyJet alone growing from 0 to 390 aircraft in 11 years, must come to an end and contract.

Pilots will be the Miners of this recession but without the violence or sympathy.

I'm on the deflation side of the fence

Were still in the minority XL, which is a good thing, let the crowds still believe the inflation hype... :)

The Print Press, just can not keep up with debt destruction. Again we'll go against the herd and say we need alot more printing of paper.

Webster's meaning of Deflation which is so appropriate to aviation....
A fall in the average prices of goods and services; - usually associated with contraction of economic activity. Opposite of inflation. Compare disinflation.
The reduction of available credit or a contraction of economic activity resulting from or associated with a decline of prices.

Bit more esoteric view....
Ben Bernanke blue print out on how to Prevent Deflation and see how were doing..

http://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/343768-sub-prime-mess-world-economics-75.html#post5054220

I'm not actually related to Ambrose..WWW

I'm no relation either, but he does have an uncanny way of successfully calling the shots - should be mandatory reading for the integrated dive into debt and subsequent (hopefully with an economic miracle) work my way out of it wannabe tribe.

I'm on the deflation side of the fence, but this is all so horribly messed up ( I own an aircraft on lease) that whatever happens next will most assuredly neither surprise nor delight me.

I should have gone for the swimming pool option. Hole in the ground full of water. So simple - nothing to deflate or depreciate. Brilliant!

Again we'll go against the herd and say we need alot more printing of paper.

cjd_a320, since you mention it: Deflation may well rule, but QE is the yellow brick road to even more trouble. Time to dig a trench, hunker down and hope that no shots fall short. Best learn to be happy with what we've got because in the intermediate term we'll not have more.

But now I sound like an armchair economist, and I do hope my pessimism is misplaced. Unfortunately I don't think that it is.

Well this is all rather depressing! To be honest I am going to employ an ostrich head in sand approach otherwise I am going to end up bloody topping myself! Ignorance is bliss and I'm fed up of actually knowing how crap things are so I'm going to join the majority (stupid British public) and let those that can actually do something about it worry.

I'll add to 350Z's rather tongue in cheek post about Ignorance... :)

The "sheepeople", always get the short straw through their own igorance. If ones aware of the situtation, you can adapt,anticipate and prosper. Some people/sectors did very well in the last depression, its cyclical like everything else.

Aviation had its time in the sun, now its set for a long period of Darkness...

Its just hard to take off these rose tinted aviation goggles(foggles) in order to really see whats happening...

you can adapt,anticipate and prosper

Trouble is, literally everything has gone to shit this time!? Any clues as to what a twenty something with university education (debt) and limited work experiencing should be doing to adapt and consequently prosper? :confused:

Just have to do a little bit of research we carn't post that sort of thing on an open aviation board... ;) :))

cjd_a320, since you mention it: Deflation may well rule, but QE is the yellow brick road to even more trouble.

I agree in the long term, however the powers that be have embarked on this route & alot more printing will be necessary on this long slow deflationary road....

New airline!!! They will need pilots!

BBC NEWS | Americas | Pet airline welcomes 'pawsengers' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8151011.stm)

Lets just hope they don't bump into turbulence, as it could get a bit smelly in the back! lol :E

Well some (if very few) are doing rather well out of this recession....my previous employer is a medium sized chain of pet sotres across the south of the UK.....they're doing better than ever and since the recession started have been opening at least one new store a month. The company has no real loans or HP to speak of continues to do very well. My point being, people are still spending on the highstreet but rather than a new sofa they're buying Fido a new bed!

The flip side to that is my family being in the metal industry.....my dad is currently seeing at least one business in the trade go tits up every week or so at the moment. And these arent one man bands, these companies are all legit and long standing firms in the employing at least 50 people upwards each. Companies that spent £100k a month with my dad this time last year are now spending £1k a month if that. :\. Manufacturing has gone well and truly down the toilet and its something that doesnt get that widely reported on by the media. All we seem to hear about is high street and finance sector businesses. The grim truth being that first in a very long line of dominoes in the manufacturing sector has been well and truly flicked....they're dropping like flies and I think this will lead to another sudden spike in unemployment very soon.

2W2R :uhoh:

China’s economy rebounded in the second quarter, boosted by a surge in state spending and in bank lending, setting the scene for the biggest emerging economy to lead the world out of the worst global downturn since the Great Depression.
Economists had expected the economy to show some strong improvement as a huge 4.0 trillion yuan (£365 billion) government stimulus package announced last November began to take effect, but few had foreseen that annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth would accelerate in the second quarter to 7.9 per cent, up from 6.1 per cent in the first quarter.
That made China the world’s the best-performing big economy. It is now the third-biggest in the world.
There was growth from several sectors of the economy, including investment in fixed assets in urban areas in the first half and in June industrial production. Retail sales, a rough proxy for consumption, rose 15 per cent in June from a year earlier after May's 15.2 per cent increase.


China state fillip sends GDP soaring to 7.8% - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6715807.ece)

:cool:

The housing market is showing the first signs of an upturn since 2006, the Home Builders Federation (HBF) has said.The body's survey of Britain's major home builders found 60% of those asked had seen an increase in sales compared to the same time last year.
BBC NEWS | UK | 'Upturn signs' in housing market (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8157072.stm)

:)

Thousands of workers and their families are expected to march on Teesside later in protest over the looming closure of a Corus plant in Redcar. The steelmaker has warned it may have to close the plant because a consortium of customers has withdrawn from a 10-year contract to buy its steel.
Unions say the closure will result in the loss of 2,000 jobs at the plant, as well as another 1,000 jobs elsewhere.


The dominoes of the Steel Industry that I mentioned earlier continue to fall....HARD!

Quant....I too saw the news from the HBF, however until the banks start widespread lending again its pretty meaningless. They can build all the houses they want but if there's no way for people to finance them then whats the point. According to the bloke who represents the banks that was on BBC breakfast, they're lending an additional £7bn a month but they're very reluctant to lend to anyone that they feel may not be able to meet the repayments.......Have the banks found their morals or is this just another excuse not to use the £billions of taxpayers money to start the market moving again????

2W2R :ok:

OFFICIAL FIGURES this week for Britain’s second-quarter gross domestic product will confirm the worst of the recession is over. But a report from the Ernst & Young Item club, using the Treasury’s economic model, will warn of a fragile recovery, with the threat of a “double dip” back into recession.
Second-quarter GDP figures, to be published on Friday, are expected to show the economy shrank only slightly after its record six-monthly fall in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year.
Some economists think the figures could even show a small rise but, according to Ideaglobal.com (http://www.ideaglobal.com/), the consensus among analysts is that there will be a fall of 0.3%, after drops of 1.8% and 2.4% respectively in the two previous quarters. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which produces monthly GDP estimates, expects a fall of 0.4%.
Signs that the economy is stabilising after its autumn and winter plunge will be welcomed – largely reflecting the start of a turnround in stocks, or inventories – but economists remain cautious.


UK economy heading for ‘fragile’ recovery - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6719052.ece)

:)

The timeline in the last recession was:

House price and stock market crash, recession, unemployment rises, recession ends, unemployment continues to rise, large airlines go bust.

Spread that out between 1989 and 1994 and you have a crude measuring stick that one might apply to the current situation.

Once the unemployment figures have breached 3 million and are falling and once the public spending totals have been slashed; only then will we see how big an aviation sector the new economy can support.


WWW

Some interesting imformations on site for new pilot may bee I not want to start so soon my studys?

Some interesting imformations on site for new pilot may bee I not want to start so soon my studys?

that's really up to you! oil is forcast to drop to nearly $20/barrel later on this year (probably won't be quite so dramatic) so i think it's a golden opportunity to start training...

The UK economy is set to shrink by 4.5% in this year, the biggest fall in a single year since 1945, according to an influential think-tank.
The downbeat forecast is more pessimistic than the consensus view, and considerably worse than the 3.5% fall predicted by the government.
The Ernst & Young Item Club also warned that hopes of economic recovery are "running ahead of reality".
It does, however, predict a return to modest growth of 0.5% in 2010.


BBC NEWS | Business | Economic recovery in UK 'on hold' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8157876.stm)

Why a golden opportunity?

With Avgas only being made in a couple of batches per year there's immense hysteresis in the pricing mechanism and it never approaches the lows for general fuel in a volatile market such as we have had in recent years. Those who actually pay for avgas can confirm this was the case when oil was at it's previous low.

Simply put: at any given time avgas costs don't reflect what you are paying at the pump to fuel cars unless it is upwards.

If you want to cut and paste your researches how about the section in the latest oil reports specific to transportation fuel?

Rob

The timeline in the last recession was:

House price and stock market crash, recession, unemployment rises, recession ends, unemployment continues to rise, large airlines go bust.

Spread that out between 1989 and 1994 and you have a crude measuring stick that one might apply to the current situation.

I'm not a financial expert - far from it, but can the same parallels be drawn with previous recessions as aren't they caused by different things? This recession was caused by the banking collapse and the availability of credit drying up.

Does that mean this recession will follow the path of previous recessions??

oil is forcast to drop to nearly $20/barrel later on this year (probably won't be quite so dramatic) so i think it's a golden opportunity to start training...

Was this forecast made by the same "experts" who said, around this time last year, that we'd soon be paying over $200/barrel?

We've already seen oil drop from $147 to around $30 and that hasn't made any difference to job availability, so why should a drop to $20 be any different?

ukdy - true that history doesn't completely repeat itself. Things will be different this time for sure. The whole industry is radically different now compared to 20 years ago if nothing else.

However, a knowledge of what happened in previous times of recession and surging unemployment at least provides a rough guide as to what to expect this time. Many Wannabes have little or no idea of how things were in commercial aviation in the period 1990 - 1994. I tend to bring it up a lot so as to encourage them to do a bit of research for themselves. Its all to easy to overwhelmed by the bullshit baffles brains approach of the Flying Training Industry and Her Majestys Government Ministers. Both are apt to lie.

Wikipedia provides suprisingly detailed and accurate articles on the demise of the likes of Dan Air and Air Europe.



At the end of the first week of March 1991 ILG and all of its UK-based subsidiaries entered administration resulting in 4,000 job losses.[6]:353 Many of the aircraft operated by Air Europe and its regional Air Europe Express affiliate were impounded, leaving a large number of passengers stranded at various airports in the UK and overseas.


[edit]Causes of collapse

The main causes leading to the collapse of ILG and its UK-based subsidiaries, including Air Europe and Air Europe Express, were:

A major, unforeseen downturn in traffic as a result of the recessionary economic conditions in the UK and a looming war to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation.[1]:169-70, 192

Undercapitalisation.
An unsound financial structure.
Being financially overextended.
Lack of ownership of any significant assets.
A high-risk strategy.


Against the background of a looming war in the Gulf as a result of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait during the summer of 1990 and a major recession in the UK at that time, ILG began suffering heavy losses and mounting debts.[1]:169-70,192

ILG/Air Europe's senior management was aware that ILG had been facing a cash crunch from as early as 1989 onwards. This had made it more and more difficult for the group to finance the aircraft it already had on order, notably the F100s and the MD-11s.

Air Europe - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Europe)


Wannabes are often unaware that in previous recessions large, household name airlines, who have recently grown and expanded and posted healthy profits - go bust. Can you think of any airlines that may currently be undercapitalised, with a somewhat unsound financial structure, who are arguably financially overextended whilst owning few significant assets? I think I can.

It is history that suggests to me that we will not see this period pass without the failure of some bigger beast airlines.

I hope for all our sakes that it doesn't happen. I don't think I could handle being a Wannabe again!


WWW

However, a knowledge of what happened in previous times of recession and surging unemployment at least provides a rough guide as to what to expect this time. Many Wannabes have little or no idea of how things were in commercial aviation in the period 1990 - 1994. I tend to bring it up a lot so as to encourage them to do a bit of research for themselves. Its all to easy to overwhelmed by the bullshit baffles brains approach of the Flying Training Industry and Her Majestys Government Ministers. Both are apt to lie.

I agree completely!

Mortgage lending to homeowners jumped 17 per cent in June according to new figures, but economists remain cautious over the strength of the property market.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said that gross mortgage lending hit a six-month high of £12.3 billion in June, up 17 per cent from £10.5 billion recorded in June.


http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6720261.ece

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/jumping/jumping0004.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=jumping/jumping0004.gif)

You've got to love the spin!


The CML's own figures show gross mortgage lending in the UK reached a record of £34.2bn in June 2007.

June 2009 is is £12.3bn.


And that is being spun as a recovery. Yeah. Right.

Lending is down to 36% of its level two years ago. The market is squarely on its arse and unemployment is rocketing and interest rates will HAVE to rise and rise. Any green shoots will be immediately sprayed with Agent Orange (look it up).

The Council of Mortgage Lenders and the British Banking Association are in competition to spin the most positive spin about the housing market. They almost make the Flying Training Industry look bluntly honest and impartial..


WWW

WWW - I agree with much of your analysis on the economy but eventually some good will come of this almighty clusterf*ck - one thing that will be better is that real UK house prices will be at least 50% lower than they were in 2007 ... or to put it another way, 100% more affordable to CTC/OAA/Jerez cadets who paid 80+ to get a summer only job that pays less than a tube driver. Also the lack of financing options - even most branches of Bank of Mater & Pater will stop lending soon - HAS to reduce the pool of low hours pilots which will eventually benefit T&C for existing drivers. The signs that the FTOs are getting desperate are there for everyone to see and the numbers coming through WILL drop dramatically very soon. In general I don't buy in to the theory that markets are self balancing but this one will.

I quit the UK last summer but for 15 years before that I was paid well by the industry that caused this mess. You've mentioned the shape of the curve before but it's no crystal ball - it can be wrong, it has been wrong before and it might be wrong now ... and since you know what it is supposed to mean would you rather see it inverted? We're in completely uncharted territory and nobody knows what the new economy will look like for airlines or anyone else when the dust eventually settles.

If you want to cut and paste your researches how about the section in the latest oil reports specific to transportation fuel?I can't do all the work for you towers so get of your lazy behind and find it for yourself! The research i have is what i get paid for and if you send me a cheque i'll share it with you otherwise go and 'cut & paste' it for yourself.

There is some truth in what you have said though.

WWW don't worry i'll convert you yet! we are in one big mess and it will take time to get out off but there a certain hopeful signs ;)

Research? The link to the last global oil report is already on the forum.

Now then - how about pointing out the 'some truth' bit given you were suggesting to a poster that avgas prices would be declining significantly? Or is is a continuation of your contention back in June that oil would be going up to $200 usd per barrel?

Rob

Ryanair - News : Ryanair Cuts Stansted Winter Capacity by 40% (http://www.ryanair.com/site/EN/news.php?yr=09&month=jul&story=gen-en-210709)

Caution, the place you are entering might not be entirely spin proof

Rob

Now then - how about pointing out the 'some truth' bit given you were suggesting to a poster that avgas prices would be declining significantly? Or is is a continuation of your contention back in June that oil would be going up to $200 usd per barrel?

If i could accurately predict the future i would be very wealthy indeed! However speculation of that sort did help me make lots of money so i'm really not fussed if i was wrong :)

I'll say it again get of your ass and find the figures for yourself i certainly won't help you.

But as I pointed out, I have the figures and they are on this forum.

What fuel pricing pressures and mechanisms make now a golden opportunity as you espoused?

Rob

No Inflation for a while yet ...... :)

Thus, theory and current evidence clearly point to deflation as the overwhelming economic risk.

Hoisington's Quarterly out look and Review...

http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2009Q2NP.pdf

Or Scribd link....
HIM2009Q2NP (http://www.scribd.com/doc/17513871/HIM2009Q2NP)

A quick message to "G-Spot lost"... in September last year we had a bet that Netjets would be laying of a significant number of people within a year.... I said they would... you said they wouldn't.... I believe the wager was a donation to the Pprune fund.... shall we declare this bet now closed?? :}

Things not bad as some peopes says for UK economy, I staying in Acton with Uncle Alexander he out of work actor at home but he get lot of work doing voice on advertizment.

I would like do this but for next flying lesson I must wash lot of cars.

Why are people in a rush....??

Come back in ten years with a pot full of savings and ride the wave* back up.... Untill then sit back and watch from a distance...while the herd try and catch the falling knife....

:)

*Countercyclical over the larger degree time frame...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still deflating.....

Continental Air to Cut 1,700 More Jobs as Loss Widens ..

Continental Air to Cut 1,700 More Jobs as Loss Widens (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUBS9ISrWjcw)

Ryanair is to cut 670 flights a week, close ten routes and reduce frequency on a further 30 routes in the biggest winter shake-up for the airline so far.Ryanair to put scheduled routes on ice over winter - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article6722585.ece)

and so it begins :sad:

A leading think-tank is predicting it may take another five years for income per head to return to the level it was before the recession hit in early 2008.

BBC NEWS | Business | UK faces slow economic recovery (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8162217.stm)

to those who have seen recessions before..

Just tryin to suss something out.. what happens to the contents of the pool of pilots during a long drawn out recession?? obviously it will expand because people are being put into it due to losing jobs and those coming out of FTO's but will it shrink a bit because of people deciding to leave the profession?? If so what sort of pilot (demographic) will it be that decides to leave?? Common sense would say it would be reasonably experienced folks (read older and with wife and kids) due to the fact they have responsibilities and need an income NOW.. The inexperienced ones tend to be younger and have no or few responsibilities and can live with mom where as very very experienced pilots may still be able to get work..

Sooo; when the hiring does start who will be in the pool of available pilots?? will it be an even mix or will it be inexperienced folks because of more experienced people leaving aviation?? a seperate question would be who would the airlines be after?? Presumably when they have let people go; it would have been those who had been around less and who had less experience under their belts. Does this then leave an airline who is top heavy and now needs to hire younger or less experienced pilots in order to even out the demograhic of pilots within their company??

It is a virtual reality version of the lobster/fish tank in a posh restaurant.

Candidates who might be deemed suitable for employment are told that they will be considered again as future vacancies arise. Sometimes those that are removed from employment will be told that they will be considered again if and when new opportunities arise. It gives the company a resource to possibly draw from at short notice rather than having to re-initiate a new recruitment programme.

The pool or tank in a busy restaurant is a useful feature that lets the customer select their own choice of product, with the knowledge that it looks fresh and attractive. In a busy restaurant the pool can be added to as necessary, ensuring a ready source of supply.

Inevitably, sometimes the product will become damaged or cease to be fresh in the pool and it can then be removed, discarded and replaced with something fresher, or if the market contracts can be emptied altogether. The pool/tank is a resource for the restaurant. Not every fish or lobster will become a fine culinary presentation. The best will usually be selected first, the leftovers will be discarded or cycled into other products as their longevity and lack of freshness make them less appealing to the customer. Fresh additions will often be selected ahead of older survivors.

When the market for fresh lobster drops off, the product can be humanely thrown back in the sea. The tank can be emptied and cleaned with bleach. It may provide window dressing for a while, but if it is taking up space and/or costing money to run, it is likely to be put in a cupboard.

An airline holding pool has many of the same characteristics. It provides a resource for the company. It can pick and choose who it might want from that pool at its own whim. It can add to it at any time. It can empty the pool or discard items as it wishes. Unlike the real pool, in this virtual pool the product is only "an expression of interest" that might have moved on elsewhere. It costs little or nothing to maintain, and because it is virtual, it provides no guarantees of priority of supply, for either the candidate or the company.

Airline "holding pools" are therefore simply a group of people who have both given and received an "expression of interest," at a particular point in time. There is no particular commitment on either party. As time passes some of the denizens of the holding pool will cease to be as attractive to the company that interviewed them. Likewise some might have found employment elsewhere. A "holding pool" is not a job, or even a promise of a job. The companies expect the candidates to realise this and act accordingly. The candidates themselves should realize this and accept that as a product they have a definite shelf life in this respect.

Enjoyed the Tank Fish analogy Bealzebub.... :)


To add to Quant's point....
There was a note doing the rounds last month or so put out by GS's Jim O'neill. It pointed out, if we have a "robust" growth of 3% per year, it will take over 21 years just to get back to 2007 asset wealth levels, such as been the destruction.

Wait until next year, when it will be the UK's Public Sector turn to deflate. :eek:

Nice one Bealzebub, very much enjoyed your fish tank!

Bealzebub

Geez you must have just been waiting for a time to use that analogy.. liked it though..http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/thumbs.gif

After Delta Airlines reports a $257 million 2Q loss...

The eight biggest carriers, according to Michael Linenberg (BOA) will be on course for quarterly losses that may total $1.2 billion....

Still deflating....

"It's The Real Economy, Stupid"

We are now in the early stages of depression. The economic indicators we follow to track economic activity are all signaling a slowdown of massive proportions. You woundn't know it reading the mainstream papers of course..........This month we're keeping it simple by focusing on the real economy....... cont on below

Eric Sprott and David Franklin
sprot asset magament
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MarketsataGlance/July_2009.pdf

JB007 - I could watch your avatar for hours ......
http://www.avatarsdb.com/avatars/scroll_bar_guy.gif
I've obviously got a very small mind

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. economy shrank more than twice as much as economists forecast in the second quarter as a record annual slump in construction, banking and business services kept Britain mired in recession
Gross domestic product contracted 0.8 percent from the first quarter, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.3 percent drop, according to the median of 32 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, the economy shrank 5.6 percent, the most since records began in 1955.

U.K. Economy Shrank by 0.8% in the Second Quarter (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQU058hNE5Bw)

At least the reduction is less than before and we're through the worst and things are starting to improve everywhere. :ok: ... this doesn't mean that some ill sheep won't be slaughtered though.

It's best to make progress than none at all.

We're going in the right direction and that's what's important! "Up" ... quite literally for me anyhow.

The only two things sure to go UP this year and next are interest rates and unemployment.


WWW

The only two things sure to go UP this year and next are interest rates and unemployment.

And VAT, due to go back up to 17.5% in January. Buy your brand new car now!

I have no doubt interest rates will sky rocket... but probably late 2010 onwards when the Conservatives have the keys. Eitherway, the banks win.

I showz thees thread to my uncle alexander and he say that how the airlines know who in the pool?

Pilot not stupid and go for a lot of jobs and may be in lots of pools, if get a job then not in any pool. So when things get better airlines go to pool and find they all had the same fish and they all gone!

Any way Yesterday I get letter from home and my mother say that Lenka a girl I go to scool with give up her job in Prauge bar and now work as crew in the cabin for airline.

Mother say Lenka very pleased to no longer have to dance with pole but she still put on enough make up to paint two boats.

May be I go back east things not so bad coz eastern banks full of money from russan mafia.

The looming collapse of the emerging Eastern European countries is likely to cripple the Austrian and Swedish banking system.

Jobs for cabin crew are much more plentiful than for pilots as many cabin crew view their job as not a lifetime profession.

The nasty phase of the worst recession since World Way Two has yet to be seen in Western Europe. Just two headline today:


Fresh blow for recession recovery as UK economy shrinks by 0.8% | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1201880/Fresh-blow-recession-recovery-UK-economy-shrinks-0-8.html)

Recession twice as deep as 1990s and 'worst since height of the Depression'


Hard hit: Canary Wharf in London, where many workers have lost their jobs. The UK economy shrank by 0.8 per cent between April and June
Hopes of a swift recovery from the recession were dashed yesterday as it emerged the economy is shrinking at its fastest rate since the Great Depression.
Over the last year, gross domestic product has slumped by 5.6 per cent, the steepest crash since quarterly records began in 1955.

Read more: Fresh blow for recession recovery as UK economy shrinks by 0.8% | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1201880/Fresh-blow-recession-recovery-UK-economy-shrinks-0-8.html#ixzz0MHos0jF8)


or, try


British economic collapse rivals Great Depression

The collapse in Britain's economy now rivals the worst days of the Great Depression, it has emerged.

Economic output shrank by 5.6pc in the 12 months to the middle of the year, according to official figures which shattered hopes that the recovery has already begun.

The Office for National Statistics said that Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.8pc in the second quarter, following the unprecedented 2.4pc fall in the first three months of the year. Economists had expected GDP – the broadest measure of the country's economic performance – to shrink by 0.3pc.

According to calculations by Martin Weale of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research the profile of the current recession is now almost identical to the decline in Britain's output between 1929 and 1931. The 5.6pc contraction over the past year almost matches the 5.8pc fall in the year preceding the second quarter of 1931, during which Credit Anstalt in Austria collapsed, triggering a second wave of economic seizure across Europe.

British economic collapse rivals Great Depression - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/5901961/British-economic-collapse-rivals-Great-Depression.html)


History suggest to us that the large airline collapses come after the technical recession has passed..


WWW

Oh the joys of Euroland banks..... :ooh:

Remember the Telegraph who were "Politely" advised to censor (now
underestimated) figure of £16.3 trillion of toxic assets they're sitting on.....

Uncensored....
A secret 17-page paper discussed by finance ministers, including the Chancellor Alistair Darling on Tuesday, also warned that government attempts to buy up or underwrite such assets could plunge the European Union into a deeper crisis.

National leaders and EU officials share fears that a second bank bail-out in Europe will raise government borrowing at a time when investors - particularly those who lend money to European governments - have growing doubts over the ability of countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Britain to pay it back.

“Estimates of total expected asset write-downs suggest that the budgetary costs – actual and contingent - of asset relief could be very large both in absolute terms and relative to GDP in member states,” the EC document, seen by The Daily Telegraph, cautioned. “

"It is essential that government support through asset relief should not be on a scale that raises concern about over-indebtedness or financing problems.”

European Commission officials have estimated that “impaired assets” may amount to 44pc of EU bank balance sheets. The Commission estimates that so-called financial instruments in the ‘trading book’ total £12.3 trillion (13.7 trillion euros), equivalent to about 33pc of EU bank balance sheets.

In addition, so-called 'available for sale instruments' worth £4trillion (4.5 trillion euros), or 11pc of balance sheets, are also added by the Commission to arrive at the headline figure of £16.3 trillion.

Banks account for their assets in different ways. Assets put into the “trading book” have to be marked to current market values, while those in the “banking book” are loans and other assets which the institution believes it can hold to maturity. Other assets are classified as “available for sale”, which are also marked to market values.

The Commission figure is significant because of the role EU officials will play in devising rules to evaluate “toxic” bank assets later this month. New moves to bail out banks will be discussed at an emergency EU summit at the end of February. The EU is deeply worried at widening spreads on bonds sold by different European countries.

In line with the risk, and the weak performance of some EU economies compared to others, investors are demanding increasingly higher interest to lend to countries such as Italy instead of Germany. Ministers and officials fear that the process could lead to vicious spiral that threatens to tear both the euro and the EU apart.

“Such considerations are particularly important in the current context of widening budget deficits, rising public debt levels and challenges in sovereign bond issuance,” the EC paper warned.

Censored... :)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4590512/European-banks-may-need-16.3-trillion-bail-out-EC-dcoument-warns.html

It will be a while yet (years) before central banks even consider to rise rates....

They know that "paper" is being vaporized as soon as its coming off the press. Its takes time for central banks to work through 60 Trillon !( if they ever do)

Ex MPC member David Blanchflower even highlighted the great "unmentionable" truth in public... :eek:

Blanchflower
It’s very early days to say that you know the endgame is even in sight,
The bank should consider spending as much as 300 billion pounds in newly printed money, twice as much as the current total authorized by the government.
Blanchflower Says BOE Risks Choking Off Recovery (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aQ_ee3MnxDFY)

Well if the Euroland banks are sitting on 16.3 trillion of toxic waste they should try the same accounting wheeze as the US banks just did and turn them into Phantom record profits then pay themselves huge bonuses for doing so. As long as everyone agrees that banks are allowed to use mark-to-make-believe or accrual accouting the day of reckoning will be pushed far far into the future - ABS/MBS typically have notional maturity dates way off in the future (decades, often 50+ years).

"The looming collapse of the emerging Eastern European countries is likely to cripple the Austrian and Swedish banking system."

You've been reading Ambrose Cassandra-Malthus' column in the Torygraph again haven't you?! Not a good idea unless you want to end it all ;)

I very flattered to get reply from big financal commisar like WWW, and my Uncle Alexander who also work in british financal sector say that he right on the money but I not so sure, I wash a lot of cars this weekend and get enough for rent and leason effevt of control 2.

Actually, Ambrose just reads these pages and then uses that as the basis for his little Telegraph column.

WWW

Those looking for this mess to be over by 2011 ( 2011 .45 for the Armstrong model fans) will be dissapointed....

British Airways Seeks Delay in Boeing Payments:

British Airways Seeks Delay in Boeing Payments: Report - Companies * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/32214490)

WWW is of course absolutely right and I would go as far as saying only a fool would chose to ignore him.

Now the big question is, when do you think the upturn in professional pilot recruitment will take place? I'm guessing at 2013 earliest but what do you experts think?

..........it will end in tears Mr P

ft.com:

Airlines beset by heavy losses

By Kevin Done in London and John Burton in Singapore

Published: July 30 2009 19:11 | Last updated: July 30 2009 19:11

Leading airlines in Europe and Asia reported heavy losses on Thursday amid the deepening crisis engulfing the aviation sector.

Giovanni Bisignani, director-general of the International Air Transport Association, said carriers were being hit by “shocking” revenue falls on international routes of up to 30 per cent at the beginning of the busy June-August travel period, when airlines traditionally made their money.

He said: “The outlook remains bleak . . .  There are no signs of an early economic recovery.”

Air France-KLM, the largest European airline measured by passenger traffic, said it had been hit by an €823m ($1.1bn) downturn in the three months from April to June, as it fell to a pre-tax loss of €612m from a profit of €211m.

All three leading European carriers are deep in loss and have been forced into the capital markets in recent weeks to bolster their shrinking cash resources.

British Airways will on Friday announce an operating loss for the first time in its history for the three months from April to June, traditionally its second strongest quarter of the year.

Germany’s Lufthansa, which is taking over three smaller struggling European carriers, reported a pre-tax loss for the six months to June of €336m, down from a profit of €478m.

In Asia, Singapore Airlines, the world’s most highly valued airline by market capitalisation, warned it could make a full-year loss for the first time since it was founded in 1972, as it reported its first quarterly deficit since the Sars crisis in 2003.

Singapore Airlines reported a net loss of S$307m ($213m) in the April-June period against a profit of S$359m a year ago.

Revenues fell 30 per cent to S$2.87bn. Fuel hedging losses amounted to S$287m.

Long-haul network airlines are being hit by sharply falling revenues in particular from premium business travellers, previously their biggest source of profits, as well as from the plunge in demand for air cargo.

Mr Bisignani said airlines were also confronting the threats of a renewed rise in the oil price and the potential impact of swine flu.

“Cash flow is threatened by weak demand, exaggerated by fare discounting, and after years of cost reduction, the scope for further cuts is limited.”

Iata said that air cargo demand was 16.5 per cent lower in June than a year ago, while international passenger traffic fell 7.2 per cent year-on-year.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

For the winter after next BA plans already to have 22 aircraft out of its fleet grounded.

Thats the UK's largest airline planning on having 22 aircraft parked up all winter in 18 months time.

Wannabes woes will not be over for several years at best.


WWW

There will be a 'big' cull across most airlines this winter...not just flight crew! For those of us on the inside of UK companies; it's starting now, unions are talking to management!

Harsh but; <200 hours/fATPL = you're stuffed! If you want to start, simply don't!

Greg2041,
Years 2034 to 2037 look a reasonable time scale for this econmic mess to work its way out the system... :)

Still deflating.....
BA sees no upturn & continue to cut costs!
LONDON (Reuters) - British Airways said on Friday it saw no improvement in bleak trading conditions and vowed to continue to cut costs, rounding off another miserable week for Europe's airlines.
BA sees no upturn | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE56U15C20090731)

This is the poster on my office wall, I thought I'd share it. I think of it as a sort of big calender.



WWW


http://i407.photobucket.com/albums/pp151/PiXeL8r_PhotoBucket/Dominov3.jpg

you must have a big scanner !!

WWW

You keep posting graffics that you and only you seem to understand!

Well I say office, I mean study.

We are at point 6.6 on the calender.


The worst is yet to come.

WWW

Tell me, why would anyone but a manic depressive, extremely unhappy with life, negative person even think of puting this poster up on their office/study/fall out shelter/gunroom wall?????

Life goes on!

I think it is just one part of what is on the wall. Next to it should be a plan of action.

That reminded me I need to restock my food supplies in my bunker

clear prop!!! - you seem to labour under this delusion that I'm a manic depressive, extremely unhappy with life, negative person.

Just ain't so old chap.

If you don't like my view attack it, counter it, refute it. Attacking the state of mind of the view holder just makes you look weak.

But then I have to admire your consistency - you've been lobbing bricks at me for coming up a decade now:


http://www.pprune.org/61777-post12.html


19th Sept 2001

Just how many threads are you going to start telling would-be pilots that things look bad???

I think it is fair to say that we have all been shattered by recent events, and can see what has happened as a result, on the stock markets.. and beyond.

Yes, things look pretty shitty at the moment and yes, you have ‘made it’ before the dreadful events of last week, but for ##### sake lets not kill off the idea of aviation as a career.



WWW


ps Is there still a massive shortage of flying instructors and is your Scottish house still going up in value?

WWW: Let the ostrich keep his head in the sand.

It's almost as though you all treat www like a voodoo doll on which you pin the blame for the current situation.

Anyone who denies what is happeneing and what lies ahead is in deep denial. The power of positive thought will not change anything, the mass of the economy has much, much too great a momementum - the outcome is inevitable and unstoppable. From here we must let nature run it's course and be realistic. If you are not realisitc you are setting your life up for a good few years of shock, disappointment and acute worry. If you are realsitic the process will be a much more measured one.

Taking the p*ss out of WWW might make you feel like you are gaining acceptance with a small but pointless, pathetic group on PPRUNE but it is an ignorant, unfair (to the more suggestable) and ultimately for yourself, futile process. The purpose of this forum is to establish facts and advice, and, structures and methods on gaining and maintaining a career in aviation - specifically for most as a pilot. Saying the depression is going to be less severe and blatantly underestimating the timescale of things is not planning for the worst (something we all do/did/hope to do in the career we have invested so much in) and is reckless. Planning for the worst leaves you something in reserve. Give the guy a break, he is offering you excellent advice and for all the right reasons.

I can not guarantee a thing as to the timescale and magnitude of things to come (though I do have my opinions) but what I can assure with some weight to anyone lucky enough not to be too far gone into the disaster that is pilot training that you will not miss a thing by putting off your training for a couple of years. There is NO ship that will have sailed. However, train now and you could very well find yourself, with out the intense currency that will see you good in an interview and sim check, without the fresh, detailed knowledge that will help answer questions confidently and, quite frankly, without a prayer.

Anyone who starts now is an increadibly risky person and is not someone that belongs in a £40-50 million, 60 ton jet with 170 peoples lives in their hands. In this career, you fly by the book and the numbers, the facts and the rules NOT by your gut and your hopes, and, denial and 'positivity'. You are where you are, do NOT try and convince yourself you are somewhere you are not.

'The book and the numbers, and, the facts and the rules' are readily available on this site in the form of articles pasted from newspaper articles, newspapers themselves and from the much more credible posters on this site.

We will all end out with what we deserve. Don't train now.

Quote "Anyone who starts now is an increadibly risky person and is not someone that belongs in a £40-50 million, 60 ton jet with 170 peoples lives in their hands."

What's thate statement supposed to mean? :ugh:

Stage 9 "loss of confidence amongst foreign investors" is the key. If things did follow the flow diagram then what you have to remember is that other parts of the world are NOT in the sh+te that the US and UK are facing. We will see the Far East, China, India etc continue with life/trading and the 'naughty boys' on the sidelines. The balance of power will change- America and the UK could become third world counties. Look at history and the rise and fall of great nations. Incidentally, Japan plodded on during the 90's producing some good stuff despite economically being in the poo.

Apart from the fact that I misspelled incredible I can't see what is difficult to understand in what I said. For those that can't see the wood for the trees, let me explain.

Someone willing to spend £60K + on flight training (in the most part secured against their dearest loved ones possessions) with the facts facing us now is a risky person. When faced with marginal weather, diminshing fuel available and a full load the airline needs someone who frees themselves from subjective feelings (like being bored of their current job and being 'desperate' to be a pilot) and looks at the facts. They need someone who has the foresight and prevents the situation from occuring infact.

People beginning training now, especially on an integrated course:
1. Have no foresight.
2. Are risk takers.
3. Have no situational awareness and are suffering from environmental capture.

Of course most who undertake pilot training at any time are taking a risk. But not like this. It has never been close to this in my opinion.

Risky people don't belong in the flightdeck. People who start training now on an integrated course are risky people. You complete the equation.

Someone willing to spend £60K + on flight training (in the most part secured against their dearest loved ones possessions) with the facts facing us now is a risky person. When faced with marginal weather, diminshing fuel available and a full load the airline needs someone who frees themselves from subjective feelings (like being bored of their current job and being 'desperate' to be a pilot) and looks at the facts. They need someone who has the foresight and prevents the situation from occuring infact.

I'm sorry beak but you trained with Oxford and now (regrettably), don't have a job. Why didn't you have the foresight to prevent this from occuring?

These pompous generalisations against current wanabes must stop. It could be argued that today's wanabes might have a better chance of employment in 18-20 months time than you did when you finished training.

Why shoot down someone who is following in your footsteps?

First customer this morning leave Daily Telegraph in office after I wash his car and ths is headline as I think you call it in english.
It not seem to match things said in post above, and on page 33 it say "US slump is almost over, IMF predicts.

It seem that financal commisar WWW and IMF not agree.

Tonight I show this to uncle Alexander and see what he say as he also work with financal experts.

Last night I get email from Lenka and see say she work very hard and airline going flat out. Also this airline promote from crew of cabin to pilot if you get ATPL and three guys already do this.
I might go back home and try for crew of cabin job as back home this OK job and it not requirment back home to be as Trevor my boss at car supermarket say "limp of wrist"

I show Lenka's email to Uncle Alexander last night and he say it may be way to get pilot job but it defanatly not first time Lenka flat out at work.

I hope Monday wather OK as I try to fly Effvect of controls 2

I'd have thought we're at about 15 on that schedule.

only two more fun-filled stages to go

Absolute nonsense, if you have the money do the training now, by the time you graduate this will all be coming to an end. Sure in the mean time ALOT of Pilots will be made redundant and due to the average age of the Pilot workforce being higher than the norm MANY of them will never fly commercially again. If your a Pilot in your fifties and you get made redundant now the likelyhood is that you will call it a day and go and buy a bar in Marbella or something to that effect. Have a look at the commercial flight training schools at the moment, they seem a little quite and desperate and are willing to bargin for a cut price deal. If you can afford to do this without prostituting yourself to a bank then get a good deal and do it now before we get back to peak oil and the price of training sky rockets! Thats my 20 cents!

Thats my 20 cents!

And that's about all it's worth.

Numerous unproven, unfactual, assumed, pointless statements:

by the time you graduate this will all be coming to an end

Back it up.

due to the average age of the Pilot workforce being higher than the norm

The norm being? Show us your information on pilot age averages.

the likelyhood is that you will call it a day and go and buy a bar in Marbella or something to that effect

Not every one is a chav. Have you seen the state of the economy in Spain? Almost 20% unemployment. Great place to set up yet another plebby British owned bar.

Have a look at the commercial flight training schools at the moment, they seem a little quite and desperate and are willing to bargin for a cut price deal.

The integrated schools are as busy if not more busy than ever. They have lowered the standards perhaps but they are just as busy. Show us your evidence again though by all means. There will not be any haggling on the price. DREAM ON.

If you can afford to do this without prostituting yourself to a bank then get a good deal and do it now

As always, state the obvious - easier said than done. Sure if you can get £60K + without going to a bank it lightens the load.

before we get back to peak oil and the price of training sky rockets!

Which will be the catalyst for more of the weak airlines going under.

I am starting to think some people are endulging in schadenfreude.

Reality czech :ok:

I'm sorry beak but you trained with Oxford and now (regrettably), don't have a job. Why didn't you have the foresight to prevent this from occuring?


Because I didn't listen to advice on here and because I did listen to an 'out of touch' BA 747 captain who told me to go for it and all would be well. Suffice to say he is quite happy in his million pound home with his sports car outside and I have 700 hours and a pityful amount of jet time and as you quite rightly mention, now, no job - not a sniff. I paid for all my training without any help or effect on anyone.


These pompous generalisations against current wanabes must stop

Uhhhhh no. Are they pompous because I bother to punctuate and spell correctly (most of the time)? Other than that I do not see anything that is affectedly grand or ostentaitous about my posts, relatively speaking. And they aren't 'against' current wannabes. They are advice to them, hopefully to go with them.

It could be argued that today's wanabes might have a better chance of employment in 18-20 months time than you did when you finished training.


I'd disagree, the depression we are in is far worse than I was aware of. I had a feeling things would plateau but this is dreadful. And it's here to stay a fair while. So I would definately disagree. These wannabes have the facts laid out in front of them.

Why shoot down someone who is following in your footsteps?

Anyone who takes it as shooting down is taking it the wrong way. It is advice. Friendly advice. Anyone who takes it as shooting down is not going to enjoy the chronic criticism pilot training entails.

As I have said I am not saying never train to be a pilot, just don't do it near to now. Some things are worth waiting for and if you all want to be a pilot as much as you say you do then it'll be no problem.

Take on board the advice, criticism and facts or I think you'll live to regret it.

My evidence is based upon what I see not upon what I read. Seeing is believing in this day and age. What I see as someone that works in Aviation is an awful lot of the bold and old calling it a day, and there are many.

I have just visited many modular FTO's recently and I have been offered a discount at several that would not have been possible even a year ago. This is without paying upfront, just simply based on the acknowledgement that I will complete both my CPL and IR at these schools.

I don't need 60K since I'm not integrated, its called years of hard graft and it works!

It seem that financal commisar WWW and IMF not agree.

An Item in today's news....

"Britain will have the biggest debt of any major economy next year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The Government budget deficit will soar to £191billion, the Washington-based organisation has warned. "

Re the IMF vs Me:

Whilst being guilty of blowing my own trumpet here I think you'll find my predictions of a debt and banking crisis and a very large recession were made much earlier and much more accurately than the IMF's.

I also advised following my jump out of the stock market at FTSE 6,300 in Spring 2007 and selling my house and renting from April 2007 (4 months before Northern Rock) in anticipation of a house price crash (now down 25%). I also mentioned buying gold at $820...

You're only as good as your next prediction but I'm happy to put my record up against the IMF or BoE or anyone else (other than Goldman Sachs maybe..).


We are in a horrible mess. Paying off this debt will be a task still shackled around the neck of my newborn son on his retirement day. History will judge the UK economic management of the last decade as a reckless disgrace. And whilst I'm having a rant why the hell did I spend yesterday morning at the funeral of an 18 year old boy killed in Afghanistan? This government has managed the trick of beggaring us financially whilst spilling our brave servicemans blood pointlessly. The country is a bloody shambles and I feel sorry for any youngster trying to get any career off the ground never mind an aviation one. <rant off>

<rant on> And another thing, is it ever ever going to stop bloody raining in this country?! Height of summer - cruel joke more like it, I've been towing cars stuck in mud and water this morning in what felt like a monsoon at the Somme.. <rant off>

;)


WWW

Sleepless nights, WWW? :)

I think you are right regarding government. History will show that the late 80s, 90s and early millennium was a pitiful time as far as leadership of this country was concerned.

A few - yeah ;)

In October 1991, in the depths of the last major recession in the UK, then chancellor Norman Lamont seized upon a couple of business surveys showing a little more optimism about the future to suggest that the economy was finally turning around:


‘what we are seeing is the return of that vital ingredient - confidence. The green shoots of economic spring are appearing once again.’


It took another 2 years for unemployment to peak and 5 years until house prices rose above general inflation. I expect to hear Darling make a similar speech within the next 9 months. Bear in mind though that it was 5 years before pilot recruitment recovered last time.


WWW

Not wanting to offer an opinion on where we are right now, I can state with absolute certainty that my particular side of aviation (standard PPL flying school/club) has yet to see any fall off in business. Indeed, our stats are well up on last year. That said, I 'm not burying my head in the sand. :ooh:

Reality Czech, do I spot the same faux pidgin that A320rider used to affect? (if so, welcome back, we missed you)

:ok:

Over on my other forum (flying Instructors) there has been a lot of talk about the high volume of new applicants and the low volume of new jobs..

faux pidgin - maybe, but if its well done it legit I think..


WWW

Artie Flifkin

I not this A320rider you talk off, but I go on A320 once and wen it start it sound like old flower grinder that Uncle Boris have on his farm. It make me think that all not OK with Airbus so I now fly with Ryanair 737 coz it not make this sound.

I now think even more of WWW he not only know all about financial market but play trumpet as well.

That would probably be the sound of the Power Transfer Unit which is a very noisy hydraulic motor which you sit overhead if you are in the middle of the cabin. If you feel safer on one of Mr O' Learys 737's then there is nowt so queer as folk.

If you're a troll you're good though. ;)


WWW

We are in a horrible mess. Paying off this debt will be a task still shackled around the neck of my newborn son on his retirement day. History will judge the UK economic management of the last decade as a reckless disgrace. And whilst I'm having a rant why the hell did I spend yesterday morning at the funeral of an 18 year old boy killed in Afghanistan? This government has managed the trick of beggaring us financially whilst spilling our brave servicemans blood pointlessly. The country is a bloody shambles and I feel sorry for any youngster trying to get any career off the ground never mind an aviation one.

Because rightly or wrongly, we choose to take this battle into the backyard of the adversary, rather than being forced to fight it on the airport concourses, high rise buildings and underground stations of our own backyard. We should be grateful and down on bended knees for the sacrifices that our military volunteers are prepared to make.

Having just returned from visiting the rain soaked military headstone, that adorns one of my own childrens final resting place, it is some small comfort to think that your own newborn son might be spared a similiar fate in the future, and that you can continue to pontificate your clever soothsayer and pundit views from your comfy armchair, swimming pool or whatever other location you wish to brag about this week.

I would join, but this discussion is edging towards JetBlast.

Lloyds results tomorrow. More write-downs expected to join the Rock's today, but then again, the rest of the business might be starting to recover...

Bealzebub....

Thats quite possibly the most powerful and thought provolking posts I've ever read on PPRUNE. Firstly, sincere condolonces for your loss and believe me as a citizen of Britain (won't call it Great anymore), I am extremely grateful and in awe of the sacrafices made by our armed services on our behalf. The poor sods shouldn't be out in Afghanistan or Iraq in my opinion but thats merely my view.

Perhaps now the public seem to be gathering strength in parliament its about time we put our foot down and demand one of two things happen....either our soldiers are immediately properly equipped with everything they need to do their job or they ALL, every single one of them, comes home and we look to fight the war in a different way. (Sorry rant off, but this is a subject that strikes close to home!)

2W2R

I introduced this subject to this thread so its my fault. The juxtaposition of my own sons birth whilst a neighbour buries her 18 year old son back from Afghanistan meant it was playing on my mind somewhat.

So we'll draw a line there Bealzebub and draw back closer to the thread topic.


------------------


The Northern Crock results were appalling. 39% of their book is in negative equity and as house prices continue to fall into the bleak winter of 2009/10 that is going to quickly get worse. And all that pious talk of "american sub-prime lending" - what the hell would you catagorise Northern Rock as if not a massive sub-prime lender?!

WWW

Still deflating....

Cathay Pacific Sees No Signs Of Sustained Recovery - CEO Memo

ONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (0293.HK) Chief Executive Tony Tyler said in a weekly memo to the airline's staff that he sees no signs of a sustained recovery for the airline, even though the latest revenue figures show the carrier's performance has bottomed out.
"Our latest revenue figures highlight the fact that we are still some way from climbing out of our deep hole," Tyler said in his latest weekly memo, seen by Dow Jones Newswires on Monday.

He said passenger revenue last week fell more than 15% short of the airline's weekly target, while cargo revenue missed the airline's target by 20%. "Not a pretty picture," he said.

Tyler said the Hong Kong-based carrier still faces a very challenging operating environment, and that other leading airlines have reported disappointing first-half results, reflecting the extent to which the economic downturn has hurt aviation.

Tyler also said Cathay Pacific's passenger revenue is 13% below its year-to-date target, while cargo revenue is 22.5% below target.

Article - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090803-700396.html)

The Northern Crock results were appalling. 39% of their book is in negative equity and as house prices continue to fall into the bleak winter of 2009/10 that is going to quickly get worse. And all that pious talk of "american sub-prime lending" - what the hell would you catagorise Northern Rock as if not a massive sub-prime lender?!

... and why would anybody be surprised by this? They securitized the good stuff and flogged it off to outfits like the one I used to work for. What was left on the NR books was the garbage including the 'non-conforming' aka 'liar loans' which in the US is tagged 'sub-prime'. This is true for pretty much all the lenders who had securitization programs - which is nearly everyone. And the good stuff that was securitized turned out to be garbage as well and/or they built the MBS with insufficient margins based on a ludicrously low assumption of default correlation. Still, if you now rebook those MBS as investment positions which will one day redeem at par (these arent the droids you're looking for ;)) you can show a huge profit and pay yourself a nice bonus at Christmas.

And its going to get MUCH worse. The public sector hasn't felt the axe yet but its coming - 'Nice Dave' will have no choice but to swing it hard. That is when you're going to see a firesale and prices down 50% from the peak. Congrats on your market timing WWW and stay in your rental if you're still there.

One thing I take issue with - why are you only peeved about the economic management of the last decade? - this cluster:mad: is the result of the ethos of self/no regulation and letting the dogs run free and it goes back to 79/80. Nouveau LieBlair was too spineless to swim against the tide but the die was cast by the 'Chicago Boys' a dead lousy B-movie actor and a dotty old lady from Grantham.

One thing I take issue with - why are you only peeved about the economic management of the last decade? - this clusterf*ck is the result of the ethos of self/no regulation and letting the dogs run free and it goes back to 79/80. Nouveau LieBlair was too spineless to swim against the tide but the die was cast by the 'Chicago Boys' a dead lousy B-movie actor and a dotty old lady from Grantham.
A point made by your's truely too. Suggest Adam Curtis' documentary series "The Mayfair Set" for some insight on why we are in this mess.

Still a lot of printing to do........


Few commentators care to mention that the total notional value of derivatives in the financial system is over $1.0 QUADRILLION (that’s 1,000 TRILLIONS).

US Commercial banks alone own an unbelievable $202 trillion in derivatives. The top five of them hold 96% of this.

By the way, the chart is in TRILLIONS of dollars:

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/4/saupload_banks_thumb1.jpg

As you can see, Goldman Sachs alone has $39 trillion in derivatives outstanding. That’s an amount equal to more than three times total US GDP. Amazing, but nothing compared to JP Morgan (JPM), which has a whopping $80 TRILLION in derivatives on its balance sheet.

Bear in mind, these are “notional” values of derivatives, not the amount of money “at risk” here. However, if even 1% of the $1 Quadrillion is actually at risk, you’re talking about $10 trillion in “at risk.”

What are the odds that Wall Street, when allowed to trade without any regulation, oversight, or audits, put a lot of money at risk? I mean… Wall Street’s track record regarding financial instruments that were ACTUALLY analyzed and rated by credit ratings agencies has so far been stellar.

After all, mortgage backed securities, credit default swaps, collateralized debt obligations… those vehicles all turned out great what with the ratings agencies, banks risk management systems, and various other oversight committees reviewing them.

I’m sure that derivatives which have absolutely NO oversight, no auditing, no regulation, will ALL be fine. There’s NO WAY that the very same financial institutions that used 30-to-1 leverage or more on regulated balance sheet investments would put $50+ trillion “at risk” (only 5% of the $1 quadrillion notional) when they were trading derivatives.

If Wall Street did put $50 trillion at risk… and 10% of that money goes bad (quite a low estimate given defaults on regulated securities) that means $5 trillion in losses: an amount equal to HALF of the total US stock market.

This of course assumes that Wall Street only put 5% of its notional value of derivatives at risk… and only 10% of the derivatives “at risk” go bad.

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall -- Seeking Alpha (http://seekingalpha.com/article/153555-five-reasons-the-market-could-crash-this-fall)

I wish I'd bought way back in January....

Maybe I missed the point but the instruments mentioned - MBS, CDS, CDO - those ARE all derivatives - their value is derived from other financial instruments. So they are included in the very very big numbers if the analysis was done properly, which I doubt. Some folks think derivatives = options but that is far from being the whole story, just one subset.

If the point was to demonstrate the scary leverage of the casino-banks ... well, yes its pretty scary.

The interesting part of the article is the bit about the rationale behind high frequency trading ... if the article is correct that's a new one even to me and I've been in the financial markets for 15 years. Its cute though ... a pretty perfect arbitrage by gaming the computerized exchanges for a quarter point - if executed properly. No wonder Goldman were so upset when that Russian programmer walked off with some of the code.

An October stock market slump would hardly be a surprise ... its almost as predictable as a bull run in almost any given January.

High-speed rail 'spells demise of air travel' - The Scotsman (http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/uk/Highspeed-rail-39spells-demise-of.5528031.jp)

When our corrupt Government is trying to destroy the domestic aviation industry what hope do any of us have? :ugh:

One thing I take issue with - why are you only peeved about the economic management of the last decade? - this clusterhttp://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/censored.gif is the result of the ethos of self/no regulation and letting the dogs run free and it goes back to 79/80. Nouveau LieBlair was too spineless to swim against the tide but the die was cast by the 'Chicago Boys' a dead lousy B-movie actor and a dotty old lady from Grantham.

Penguin 68, you are right in one respect but people seem to forget that a certain opposition leader by the name of Dave, actually wanted further de-regulation. The suggestion is that things could have been even worse under that administration, if that were possible!

Spin this one? Are you serious?

The next monthly UK unemployment figures are due soon - lets wait and see what the raw data says before we break out the bunting and organise a street party.


The WSJ prints this today:


The Bank of England signaled doubts Thursday about the sustainability of a recent improvement in the U.K. economy, surprising markets with a larger-than-expected increase in a bond-buying program aimed at fending off recession.

Prices of U.K. government bonds surged and the British pound fell after the central bank announced that it would expand its so-called quantitative easing program by GBP50 billion to a total of GBP175 billion. Analysts had been split on whether the central bank would add even GBP25 billion to the program, under which it buys mostly government securities with freshly created money.

Article - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090806-717118.html)


IF ever I was a cocky son of a bitch its now when saying houses are going to go down, unemployment is going to go up and the economy is going to get much much much worse.

Lets see where UK house prices are in Oct/Nov/Dec this year and lets see how the unemployment figures look in Jan/Feb/Mar next year.


Its no suprise that printing £125,000,000,000 in the last 9 months has done *a little* to stimulate the economy. Shame the banks are parking most of it on reserve with the Fed/BoE....

Hyperinflation and massive Interest Rates for 2014 - someone print that and put it on their office wall and call me back on it 5 years on!


WWW

someone print that and put it on their office wall and call me back on it 5 years on!

That'll be to replace the poster that said oil would be $200 (or whatever) by last Xmas and that house prices will have fallen by 40% by now!....

WWW,

That apart , I missed this news somehow ....

The juxtaposition of my own sons birth

Putting the jousting pole aside for a bit, congratulations to you and Mrs Welshman and the very best to you both, and your new addition!....don't buy him 'My first book in economics'.. just yet!!

Regards

CP

Why? My first book of economics said "oil was a sideshow, sell you house, get out of the stock market and don't partake in flying training" on the dust cover blurb.

If you think *I* ever predicted $200 oil then I suggest you point me to the posting..

House prices are down 24%, then up a couple of % (cue actual Front Page Headlines in the Express proclaiming a "new boom" in house prices :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: !), and have another 15% to fall I believe.

Thank you for the congratulations.


WWW

That'll be to replace the poster that said oil would be $200 (or whatever) by last Xmas and that house prices will have fallen by 40% by now!....

Actually that would have been my trademark - not Weasley's. I was never able to convince him on that one.

And I still stand by it, BTW ... That within 5 years from now we'll see $200 a barrel oil. If you think that last years oil spike was a once-off that's history now then explain why oil isn't trading at $20 right now - that should be the middle-of-big-recession price, not $60-70.

And I still stand by it, BTW ... That within 5 years from now we'll see $200 a barrel oil. If you think that last years oil spike was a once-off that's history now then explain why oil isn't trading at $20 right now - that should be the middle-of-big-recession price, not $60-70.

Totally right.

Interesting link of UK Airline stats:

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/ERG_AviationTrends_Q1_2009.pdf


Disagree on $200 oil (and I mean in real terms, so with the exception of whether inflation takes us there), as on so many levels the $150 oil market last year was driven by speculative flows and not real demand. The market was in backwardation due to many people storing oil and creating short-term squeezes in supply, yet long-term there was a supply surplus.

Oil usage in the West is also a declining phenomenom. It is not particularly troublesome that supplies are declining as less is used per unit of output, and higher prices signal great capex, resulting in extraction of more difficult-to-extract oil in the long-term (eg oil sands).

A useful chart of oil prices in real terms (ie inflation is eliminated):

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

Read this to understand a little: Contango - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contango)

Hyperinflation and massive Interest Rates for 2014 - someone print that and put it on their office wall and call me back on it 5 years on!
Careful, WWW, you only get that if the BoE lost control of monetary policy in its entirety, which is about as likely as pigs flying. It is unlikely that speculative flows due to high interest rates would push inflation up further, based upon the control the BoE have over monetary policy. That occurs generally where central banks are politically controlled.

Rates up for sure (depending upon QE exit), but hyperinflation just won't happen. It is a myth that generating inflation will allow governments to exit their debt responsibilities quicker, as debt rollover is constant, not at one point in the future (as is the case for homeowners).

I would also estimate that the rate rises would be earlier - perhaps 2012-13, and at that point they realise they need to get out of QE extremely quickly.

I am in full agreement with you about the pit we have yet to reach though. My earlier posts are clear!

Oil at $200 in real terms is not going to happen for quite a while because it will induce a global economic collapse just as sure as 20% interest rates or another freezing of the money markets would. When the inevitable terminal nosedive in middle east production gathers momentum you'll see 200 for sure, but 5 years? - the people I know who are paid to know that stuff dont think it will happen on that timescale.

The casinos that own oil storage are playing a longer game - the feeding frenzy that was going on in 07/08 and got us to 150 was driven largely by 'tards hearing that the oil price is going up due to increased chinese consumption+constrained supply and putting their savings into commodity funds ... way too late ... both the boom and the bust were inevitable.

Backwardation? - it was hypercontango that killed all the morons that piled into commodity funds 3-4 years too late believing that oil would get to $200 by now - the funds dont have physical storage - they play the futures market and cash settle, hence in the feeding frenzy futures prices were running way ahead of spot. Come the value date(s), spot was falling due to supply rapidly easing (thanks to the recession) and the funds and their 'tard investors got absolutely spanked, and deservedy so. They completely missed the point that spot is driven by real supply and real demand - or they just didnt understand what they were buying into.

To ReHeat and Penguin - I know the market is not what most people think it is and I thank you for sharing informed opinion. This thread exists, at considerable length and effort, in order to provide Joe Wannabe with an informed caution argument.

Hyperinflation is still me call thus I am buying assets. From ride on mowers, to oil futures, to gold, to land, to reliable second hand cars. In the inflation rampant world - they were all cheap...


WWW

WWW - I'm not in the deflation camp - I think that is b*ll*cks. I just don't buy oil at 200 in 5 years. I have a friend who works for Shell in Canada who was worried about her job prospects when oil crashed - I told her that Shell know very well that it will be back > 100 within 5 years.

You're obviously shrewd and you're a big boy unlike the incomprehensible text speak yoof unintelligentsia on this board (who should never be allowed anywhere near a cockpit). Still, I advise you to be careful with futures - you can make the right directional call and still haemorrhage margin to the point where you get stopped out in a dip/spike, and then watch with horror as the underlying px goes exactly where you thought it was going. You need big enough balls and wallet to withstand potential adverse margin calls AND be right about the timing of the move you called.

When Sterling/Dollar a.k.a. 'cable' last hit 2.00 I thought it was a no-brainer, and of course it bl**dy was, but I wasnt prepared to bet on the timing of the break so instead of buying futures I rang FD and opened a USD holding account. I made an absolute killing in 6 months - but it could easily have taken much longer and thats a problem if your futures expire before the break happens.

Now with oil you cant do that - unless you own oil storage facilities, so if you're sure about 200 why dont you go long calls at 150? I don't have Bloomberg Pro anymore so I'm semi-guessing when I say that's probably out of the money for contract dates within the next 3 years at least and if that is the case those calls will be cheap. There's no margin - but you're risking every cent of the option premium you put up. If spot is below 150 on the underlying futures maturity date you're out of pocket. For every $ over 150 your payoff gets bigger - if its >=200 you can probably retire to Sandbanks before you hit 40 :D

You're right - much is cheap right now, but be careful on futures as Penguin says.

All I can guarantee is that few of us will be 100% right in life; thus informed debate is key. However, I would be willing to bet that if $200 oil arose, it would only be as a result of inflation taking us there as I allude to above (an not of the hyper variety).

Gold - careful, as it is already in bubble-land

Oil - careful, as prices are derived from ton-mile demand and location of extraction. It is not quite the homogenous asset that land is...


Wannabes - still, don't start training for at least another year!!

Wannabes should not borrow money for training, period. Even if you get a job the financial payoff is just not there but the interest sure will be. Work first, fly later.

Sorry for the delay - lying in the garden most of the day thinking about mowing the lawn, glorious weather for a change and all that.


Sorry to say that you shouldn't get excited by the weekly spin put out by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (the clue is in their title). In a normal non-crashed market an average month sees about 75,000 housing transactions. Higher in the summer and lower in the winter but about that level as an average.

To be in July with base rates at 0.5% and still only be managing 45,000 transactions is pathetic and perfectly illustrates a crashed market state. Just because they fell to the mid 30's before slowly climbing to the mid 40's means very little. How's your FTSE tracking ISA looking? Good for the last month. Dire for the last two years. Torture statistics long enough and they'll tell you anything.


In the last early 1990's crash you had months when prices rose. Sometime sharply. Sometimes for several months in a row. But they fell more than they rose for three straight years after the initial crash. This chart shows how it looked in terms of monthly fall and rises for UK property over three years post crash:



http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/files/2009/08/housingslump.gif



We've had a brutal 25% fall. Now we'll have several years of drifting down. Then a period of failing to keep up with inflation so a fall in house prices in Real Terms. Then housing will start to outperform as an asset and then it will do well again. I'll let you into a secret as to how I know.. I checked the history of all the previous house price crashes.. cheeky, I know.

Oh, and one other thing, house prices have never ever ever gone up whilst unemployment is rising. Given even Gordon in his bunker admits unemployment is set to surge upwards over the next 18 months then is it different this time?


I wouldn't have a clue about Heathrows monthly passenger numbers. Never been there and hopefully never will. Could mean anything. Though seeing as its biggest airline BA is losing over £2,000,000 a day I would again urge you to suppress any champagne celebrations a while longer.

WWW

Maybe I'm just lucky. I have just completed the sale of my house and made a 39% "profit" in a little under 6 years. It took 10 weeks to sell, made the asking price and was valued at 7% less than 18 months ago. I know it isn't exactly a meteoric return compared with the past, but I don't think I'm crying too much over it.

Sorry for the delay - lying in the garden most of the day thinking about mowing the lawn, glorious weather for a change and all that.

WWW, is it o.k. if I call you the deckchair economist so?

Nice to see in recessionary times some are living it large. You may spout off all your economic mumbo-jumbo but I'm getting on just fine. Thanks for wreckin' me head though! Scratching it here thinking "am I thick?" or "does some man on a distant land just like talkin' :mad:"? Where do you get all the figures though? They mustn't work you half as hard as they should in your airline if you have such time to consider all the reports you apparently read.

Good old copy and paste a new story,
BBC NEWS | Business | Fed says worst of recession over (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8197859.stm)

"Fed says worst of recession over"

I'm inclined to believe that, however aviation is a different matter. Look at pilot recruitment to increase in 2011, I don't hold out hope to be pulled from the hold pool until then.

Cows_Getting_Bigger ... you were very lucky to be living in Scotland.

I sold my 5 bed detatched in the 'saarf daahns' in Nov 2008. Bought it new in Jun 2002 - not peak of the market. Didn't make a cent on it over 6 years. If I'd sold it 1 year earlier I might have made 30-35% but we weren't looking to move at that point. The people 2 doors away still cant sell theirs (been on the market 16 months now) despite knocking 75k off the price.

Factor in maintenance and cost of carry and its pretty obvious I got spanked. Lucky I made 80% in 4 years on the previous one otherwise I'd be in the poor house now instead of at the beach :cool:.

FYI, as of today, been announced that France and Germany are no longer in recession, something like 0.3% growth. The GDP figure to be announced.

The UK will take a while longer, but the light is emerging at the end of the tunnel, or is that a 747? :ok:

The light at the end of the tunnel is a beacon guiding us into the next and longer tunnel. Sorry. Wishful thinking abounds at the moment, which is normal. But the pundits who called this recession believe it has a long way to run.

And the majority who missed seeing this one coming are those who are saying it is over, and all is well.

Not a chance. Hold tight, and do not spend money on type-ratings, line-training, or even fATPL courses. Trust me.

I agree, our turbulence will last a bit longer. I'm in no hurry, still progressing with Atpl but will wait for times to improve significantly before completing it. Things will improve, just got to be patient and not let impatience be your weakness.

What might be the "light at the end of the tunnel" may not be the landing lights of a 747, it could easily be car headlights rushing toward you, or equally the light on the front of Gordon Brown's economic bicycle...

bear in mind...

"time to pay off part of their £1.4trillion debt mountain, while the Government raises taxes"

"King warned that banks may further reduce the supply of loans to firms and households as they rebuild their own finances; ... 'the recession appears to be deeper' than the Bank's own Monetary Policy Committee thought likely at the time of their report in May."

"joblessness has soared to its highest level since 1995. The Bank of England predict the level of unemployment will carry on rising 'for some time'"

"'Mervyn King has once again underlined how hopelessly optimistic the Government's assessment of the length and depth of the recession really is."

"in a further blow to the Government's credibility, the Bank said that this year's downturn will be even sharper than previously expected, with gross domestic product tumbling around 4.4 per cent, according to the Bank's forecasts.. That is significantly worse than the Treasury's 3.75 per cent worst-case scenario, again suggesting Chancellor Alistair Darling's March Budget forecasts were far too optimistic"

"Mervyn King warned that the recession is 'deeper' than officials feared and the 'mayhem' caused by bank meltdown will do far-reaching damage to the economy... the Bank predicted only a 'slow and protracted' recovery in which redundancies will soar further and more firms will go bust. "

Don't break out the bubbly and race off to an integrated course just yet !

Guys,

I thought I would bullet point a few "Outlooks" from the CX Investor Meeting Document.

Cost saving initiatives (cont’d)
•Others
•Implementing a hiring freeze and offering voluntary unpaid leave
•Negotiation with manufacturers to defer deliveries of new aircraft
•Review of aircraft leases that expire
•Deferred completion of cargo terminal from 2011 to 2013
•Pushed back capital expenditure, eg. airport lounge renovations in HKG and LON
•Landing charges: various reductions at airports around the world including 10% in Hong Kong for 2009

Outlook
•General market
•Airline industry faces continued turmoil due to economic downturn.
•Seasonal nature of business means that second half is traditionally better than first half
•H1N1 flu still a threat
•Market capacity is down

Outlook
•Our situation
•Asian economic recovery still uncertain
•Demand and yields seem to have stopped falling but not started to recover
•Fuel has more than doubled in price since early March
•Fluctuations in currency will continue to affect our results
•Cargo prospects a little better due to a slight pick up in demand and reduced market capacity
•Commitment to future expansion
•Have not and will not cut customer-facing spend
•Pledged to keep network integrity intact for both pax and cargo services

Basically, things aren't as bad but still nowhere near good! It is still an uncertain world to live in at the moment. Best advice for any budding pilot is maintain flexibility if you are intent on starting training now (i.e go mod) or work and save for the next 18-24 months before you embark on an Integrated course.

By the way, I thought I would stoke the fire somewhat:

I've hard that the CAA will increase costs in the next couple of years for Integrated FTOs so an integrated course will cost even more. Apparently though, the loop hole around this is as long as an FTO has an "office" in another country, it can be approved by that country's own Aviation Authority.

Am I spouting BS?

Guess what happens next:



http://www.agoralifestyles.com/content/files/mm130809_1.jpg



Yesterdays jobless figures were truly awful. The percentage of the population without work hit its highest for some 13 years, while the nations dole queues reached their longest for 14 years. The actual number of employed Britons fell by a record 271,000 in the three months to June, as even more people left the workforce than claimed benefits.

The 1990/91 recession ended after just 2 quarters. Unemployment continued to rise for 6 more quarters AFTER the recession had ended. The unemployment peak is the killer for airlines.

I'd wait until the UK recession has actually ended (and France and Germany are only parts of a EuroZone deeply in recession) and then I'd wait before unemployment started falling before I even thought about looking at commercial flying training. We are talking several years at least.


WWW

Well, you've really splashed out on the economic modelling if you bought yourself a Bloomberg terminal, www!

Valuations in the area in which I live are down 40%, and have not yet stopped falling. :ooh:

I am not kidding when I answer this - believe WWW.

as of today, been announced that France and Germany are no longer in recession,


Ryanair could increase their German bases, not in France though as they require union recognition but they could increase flight frequency to/from the French airports. A great day for european aviation.

Take my comments with a tablespoonful of salt :eek: