Is this the end of the good times?

[Flyer14]

Maybe it's too early to say, but a buddy of mine, who just got turned down by one of the airlines after a successful sim check were talking.

With Nationwide going belly up and releasing approx 65 to 75 fairly to highly experienced jet drivers into the market, does this mark the end of the current hiring season? My guess is that if another airline, New Nationwide or whatever doesn't start up then movement in the industry may slow down alot in the near furture.

Your thoughts?

[saywhat]

I think you just hit the nail on the head. I can't believe that there are going to be too many takers to start up airlines with the oil price where it is. If anything, I think airlines might just scale down, operating less planes more full more frequently. World wide, I believe that there are going to be many pilots seeking employment after more airlines go under.

[freefly_rulz]

Saywhat, what you just said has been on my mind for quite some time, and you ht the nail even harder than Flyer14. This Nationwide crisis is temporary, but the oil prices are not.
With expected figures of over $200/barrel, things in the aviation world is going to change forever. The times are changing, and very rapidly.

Whilst I think in the short term, things will continue to boom (well, in the Middle and Far east for now), in the future I see Airlines canceling orders of new aircraft, and exchanging older aircraft for newer more efficient ones, as well as getting rid of some of their fleet. And that means more and more pilots will be filiing the market.

This does not bode well for us aviators, as things will be much tighter than it is now.

It is exactly as you said, less planes, more full, more of the time. Businessmen will rather use technology to do meetings, oversea vacations will become a luxury of the rich, people would rather take the train, or travel by road than pay the higher prices airlines will have to charge to cover costs, and aviation will suffer tremendously.

I hope my dim views of the career I love is somewhat unfounded, and that things will continue on the same trend, but at the same time I am very worried about what the future holds.

[powerstall]

Can i hit that nail one more time.... with the future predictions of oil costing $200 per barrel, it will be just a matter of time when some airlines will have to close operations and a lot of more of our colleagues will be out in the market... and as a rule of supply vs. demand .... if there is less demand... (jobs) trust me, there will be a whole lot of supply (pilots).

:{:{:{

[Whenwe]

Guys and Girls, don't be so negative.

50 years ago I filled my tank with R5.00. Now its more than R400.00. Bought a house for R20,000.00 , now its a million rand.
You know what, whilst my income has always lagged behind I earn a comfortable income, still have a job and always had a flying job when I could.

Thats life! Never forget that you are the creater of your own life. Now get out there and do it.

[Lynessa]

Looks like the days of us calling the shots might be over and the operators may be in a position to clean up all the dirt in the industry and let the hard workers to be looked after.
I also think we need to hold onto what we have at the moment and look after it, we never know who goes down next.
We sometime forget what a big role we as crew play in keeping most of the operators alive.
We all need to do our bit.

[JetPark]

Whenwe is correct. It's far from doom and gloom. Business Economics = Cycles. You will have variances that scare for sure. The US and UK economy is (supposedly) struggling. We'll feel the impact down south too and often do as we all know. Business aviation - on the other hand - is booming. European ramps are full and the order for the manufacturers keep rolling in. There are 40 + confirmed (deposits paid) for the new G650 which is still 3 years away from delivery. Pax number are up at most Airports around the globe - not indicative of rising costs. Aviation will never slow to the extent that Pilots are a thing of the past. Don't worry about it! Get on with it!:ok:

[saducees]

As long as Emirates /Jade and a few other still need pilots.the glut of pilots will only last a short time.
The shortage to the east and down/under continues

[kingpost]

With oil on the increase many airline will reduce frequencies. What does this equate to, new joiners will be furloughed, think twice before jumping ship in a recessionary market.

[Africrash]

The industry has always gone in cycles, good times and bad, I guess we are tipping over for a bit but it will come back up as well. As long as the oil does not run out completely!

Crash

[fly nice]

Airlines that have placed orders for aircraft need to weigh up the costs of cancelling orders vs biting the bullet for the mid term and recieving aircraft (hiring crew). I suspect there will be a compromise in this regard, so the order books (and jobs) will not dry up completely, Emirates et al notwithstanding.

Having said that, the pilot job market is like a game of musical chairs, make sure that when the music stops........

[Flyer14]

I had a chair when the music stopped, but then Vernon pulled it away from under my BUTT!:}

Interesting feedback, guys - I didn't really think about the fuel issue but true it is worrying. Are there any sustainable alternative fuels being researched to replace Jet A1?

[big buddah]

Boys remember the cost of fuel at the moment is not because it is running out but because they can't can't produce it quick enough.
The last oil crises was also because of production and it reached in todays dollars around $250 dollars a barrel. That was 30 odd years ago and here we are today.

There is plenty of alternatives to oil but while oil is cheap no one is willing to invest in new technology. This will start in 20-30 years.

[snotneus]

I dont think that the downturn will be that long term. I read a while ago about an economist that went back to the roman times, and found that every 70 odd years there is an economic downturn as every generation has to learn how to manage and respect debt. The previous one should have happened during the Regan administration. Then came the idea to manipulate interest rates as soon as there is a slowdown.
Also interesting is that ontop of my screen is an ad for airarabia-now hiring.
Remember flightstar? most of their pilots ended up overseas. prob what will happen with the Nationwide crew. I know link is desperatly short of crew.

[Propellerpilot]

I just want to put some other thoughts and factors into this discussion:

Initial training will become less and less affordable to the common man, as the industry does not want to invest more than is needed for recruitment, especially cadet schemes. At the moment most individuals in South Africa wanting to get into the market do so by private finance (or except maybe BEE etc). So unfortunately only the "brats" of the upper class will be able to buy themselves the aviator privileges needed in the near future - I think already 75% of the guys getting into the charter market come from this background and there will be fewer and fewer who can afford it over time if the cost continues to rise=less pilots.
Why even want this for the rest of their lives: becoming a pilot (if your not an absolute enthusiast) is less and less attractive for many reasons and burdens - it is not the jetset life it used to be in the 70s-late 90s, with tendencies to low-cost carrier ops and remuneration in general is average-you definitely work more for less and it's odd hours with little or even no family life. In the end your social status is probably a whole lot less than daddy's, who paid for the initial stages... (sorry if that's how "you" got your license - but I'm just trying to make a point here, no offence).

Another thing to think about, is those few (but still plenty) tycoons or what you may call them, who do not feel the punch of fuel prices or worry about cost of living - they would never dream of having to travel on a all economy class A380 sitting next to average Joe... with 800 other souls on board, there will be a lot more movement in this market to individualize, while the mass market with airlines will have to consolidate. The fuel price has made the executive operation more costly, but the people using the service just take that into account because they can. Adding to this is also the fact that as long as there are resources to exploit in 3rd world countries, there will be more and more demand for contract services to operate in these areas, also in NGO work. Many airlines are also starting to invest into executive transportation=more or less the same jobs remaining stable.

So those pilots already operating and in the market, will probably always be in demand for their skills and experience and for the cost saving benefits to the company, training new people is expensive.

If there is less demand, it will regulate itself, because young blood will cease to enter the market drastically in the next couple of years. The flying schools might still be doing great at the moment (maybe also due to foreigners trying to escape high training cost at home), I think that might be the first thing in South Africa to change soon - I do not know what the local/foreigner ratio is at present.

So my point is, there will be more regulation on the mass market and more demand for special aviation services. Maybe supply and demand for pilots will become more balanced eventually. I think the jobs will remain pretty much the same, except specialist sector requiring more, but less pilots available to the market on the other side. The good times in aviation ended in the 90s - back then lots of GA and PPL flying for the fun of it - only very few can afford this luxury today... Airline Pilots earning a load of salary with long turnarounds and lots of time at swimming pools and beaches a thing of yesterday and the "GOD of the sky" status has also diminished drastically to a type of flight-deck administrator or bus-driver of the skies...

[Malagant]

The pilots released by NW might look like it is flooding the SA market but in reality the 100 or so pilots is not much and many of them will find jobs soon if they prepared to go work elswhere for awhile like the East and in Middle East, just check Flightinternational job section and see how many 737 positions available..even 75/76 positions, if you rated on the 767 you can also fly the 757 as it`s a common type rating. Many pilots are also close to retirement in the next 2 to 3 years and that will again offer positions in the market. It was mentioned that due rising costs many people cannot afford to become pilots anymore and in a global study that was done according to the Flightinternational magazine young people are more likely to do Itc and electronics studies etc as opposed to flight training and one of the main reasons cited was lack of grants to complete flight training yet these grants are much easier obtainable for study in other careers such as medical etc.

[nomoneynowek]

Been reported in the States that the issueance of ppl licenses in the last 6 years is down 50%. Airlines (regionals) have been snapping up every 200 hr wonder, and the schools are hurting for instructors, further compounding the problem.

Flying is a great job, but I'm having my doubts about it being a great career. Seems a lot of prospective pilots have come to that conclusion before even getting into the industry.

[Shrike200]

Great job, terrible career. It's been that way since I began, and only seems to get worse. Again, anybody who asks me, I tell them to become a doctor instead.