SAA’s fleet expand

[ERASER]

Interesting................

In the immediate phase, the board has approved that SAA should lease an additional six aircraft for delivery in 2008-09, three of which should be wide body and three narrow body. These aircraft will be deployed on existing and new profitable routes.

In the medium term, SAA will conduct an aircraft supply competition with suppliers during the course of this year for the acquisition of additional aircraft while the longer term strategic plan will see SAA’s fleet expand in line with forecast network requirements and the restructuring plan. Both the medium and longer term plans will be finalised following discussions with our shareholder.

E

[divinehover]

Now I just need another 200 senior to me to resign and I'm in the game. Hooray, command before 2050.

[TC737]

It is already being decided

3 B777
and
3 A320

[kat06sa]

If this is true. I can understand the A320's with the "family type rating" etc but B777? I love that aerie. But makes more sense if they expand their airbus wide bodies. From a maintence side anyway, try save us taxpayers a few bucks. :rolleyes:

[George Tower]

The B777 rumour does seem a little daft considering SAA's large fleet of Airbus widebodies.....but who cares about the financial implications when you have the tax payer to underwrite you:E

[Juliet Sierra Papa]

If these rumours are true about the 777's can anyone yet say if these will be 772's or 3's and where will the flightdeck crew come from? My understanding on this is that there is only 1 qualified captain for T7 in ZA.
Please correct me if I am wrong on this.

Thanks
JSP.

[Q4NVS]

and where will the flightdeck crew come from?

Possibly from the Simulator...:E

[PAXboy]

I am not in the least surprised to hear (read) the rumour of some Boeings and for a very simple reason.

For many, many years, SAA was a Boeing 'house' and there are many still there that mourn the change to Airbus (IGNORING any technical reasons) and so any chance to get an aerie that starts with '7' will be tried.

Had SAA have been a McDonnell-Douglas 'house' they would have been equally upset at the change. It is the change not the direction of the change. For others, of course, it is the direction but the unfamiliarity of a new everything, leaves people wanting what they had before. It's entirely normal. BUT, having made one big switch - SAA cannot afford to make another. For better or worse, stay with aeries that start with '3'.

[evanb]

They cannot get 777 for a few reasons:
1) SA do not have any ETOPS ratings and it would cost a fortune to get ETOPS ratings for only 3 birds!
2) There are no new build 777 available in the short term so they will have to lease older birds!
3) All the older birds are non ER and will have problems from JNB and will operate with load restrictions constantly.

[UncleJack]

SAA has ETOPS for A319's and 738. It hasalso held ratings for B767 in the past .:ok::ok::ok:

[Juliet Sierra Papa]

It hasalso held ratings for B767 in the past


And the A330?

[evanb]

Holding ETOPS certificates for 319 and 738 will have no impact on 777 since it is a different aircraft type. SA will have to build up an ETOPS record on the 777 which will take some time and will be difficult to do with only 3 aircrafgt! As far as I am aware SA have ETOPS on the 738 but not the 319 which are not certified for overwater at all - hence why they are not used on JNB-MRU at all! SA never held ETOPS for the 330s since they were operated by BMI and TAM who held ETOPS on them. The ETOPS certification has more to do with maintenance than anything else!

[Hobagoas]

ETOPS does not necessarily have to be over water.
The A319 did/does ETOPS between JNB-FIH regularly, 'twas just a matter of getting 2nd HF installed etc. The over water limitation comes about because they weren't fitted with rafts but slides only.

evanb, maybe some research is in order before making claims.......

[Shrike200]

Even so, I'd still like to hear an answer to points #2 and #3 that he makes, I think they're pretty valid as well.

[cigar]

Re point 2 (and hence point 3): What about the TAAG birds? There were rumours last year about SAA taking their 3 B772ERs since they (TAAG) are banned from flying into the EU.

[ERASER]

Don't think the TAAG B772's are an option, because SAA Technical does not have the staff or equipment to facilitate B772 schedule maintenance.
Should TAAG do it on SAA's behalf the TAAG ban will be applicable on SAA(B772).

Think SAA will look for A330, A342/A343 or maybe even A346's. The rumour around is that SAA could not cancel the A320 order and will have to take them.

E

[i-Robot]

SAA would've had the 330's yesterday (I was told this by the chief pilot himself). But there are just none available (the price of early indecision).

Regarding ETOPS. The only reason the 319 can't do it over water is due to the lack of rafts. But the 320 will easily fit into the ETOPS needs if so required. The company does not need to demonstrate realibility on the 777 to obtain 777 ETOPs. It's based on performance and history using the current and past a/c maintenance, training, etc. in the company. So, theoretically SAA could operate a 777 today, no problem.

Boeing already demonstrated to the pilot group during their presentation at Airways park a couple of months ago, how they would deploy a 777 on direct routes to and from New York/Joburg. I asked the product engineer where these trip7's were coming from, she said "don't worry, where there's a will there's a way, and the SA govt. has a special understanding with Boeing..."

so...who the heck knows what's really going on?

[divinehover]

I could be wrong but I'm sure you can order a/c from Boeing or Airbus with ETOPS certification. I think the 777 can come from the factory with 180 min ETOPS. Surely you don't have to fly them around for x amount of time before deploying them on ETOPS routes.

[TooBadSoSad]

The airline is looking to lease three Boeing 737-800s and three widebodies – either Airbus A340-300s or Boeing 777s - in the short-term. SAA is also about to release an aircraft purchase tender, covering its needs for more than 20 aircraft by 2017.

[Q4NVS]

...covering its needs for more than 20 aircraft by 2017.

Ironically it is the same year the Eishkom grid is expected to stabilise - No Jokes. :{

Who do they think will still be here to fly them :confused:

[evanb]

I am pretty familiar with ETOPS procedures so no need to do specific research. All aircraft are built (at least newer aircraft) with some out of the box ETOPS ability but not certification. ETOPS classifications are 60, 90, 120, 138 and 180 minute rules and yes they have nothing to do with over water but rather airports within the time limitation that could handle an emergency situation for that aircraft type. All aircraft and operators by definition have a default 60 minutes ETOPS. SA have on 90 minute ETOPS their 319s and 120 minutes on the 738s. You are correct about the liferafts.

ETOPS has four components: 1) engine health monitoring, 2) predeparture service check, 3) system maintenance practices and 4) event-orientated reliability programmes. In order to move from the default to a higher certification you need to satisfy all four components. One can satisfy 2, 3 and 4 generically (i.e. independent of aircraft or engine type) but one cannot satisfy point 1 without an operations history. You are required to operate the engine type successfully to gain certification and this is very difficult to do quickly with a small number of aircraft. It took SQ 6 months to get 180 ETOPS on the 77W and this only occured so quickly because they had a number of birds and a history with the 777 and engine types (by the way the 777 default is 120 mins). With 3 birds and an unknown engine and aircraft type it should take SA.

Whatever the CAA issues are with ETOPS SA will have to satisfy FAA requirements as well.

[Alternate Law]

Evan, ETOPS for this operator is the least of the worries.

[ByAirMail]

Heard from a family member working for V.I.P. Payroll that Pretoria was without power ( again ) on Thursday, pay day. Couple of company's could not release their payrolls.

Some of the biggest international contactors working on the Soccer WC missed pay day from V.I.P. Payroll as well. 6 Top directors on the 2010 SWC board already jumped ship. FIFA not happy.

No World Cup..... no extra aircraft required.

[evanb]

I agree that ETOPS is the least of their worries but enough of an issue to avoid the 777 for only 3 birds! 330 would be less of an issue since SA have an operational history of the 340 which will help get ETOPS 180 very quickly (possibly immediate).

[RunwayBlueOne]

While on ETOPS and the 319 What's the difference in config between the SA 319 and the MK319 which does the CPT-MRU nonstop? (not the SA 319)

[evanb]

1) Liferafts! But this is not an ETOPS issue but an overwater ETOPS issue!
2) Ability to evacuate the aircraft in good time without using overwing exits.
3) And 4 conditions mentioned earlier!

[777Contrail]

In SA (and SAA) today, if big money is mentioned (like that paid for new aircraft), its all about who's palm is being greased.

It has nothing to do with routes, ETOPS, pax numbers or yield figures.

ONLY, who's palm is being greased.

The taxpayer is buying so its not important where the money is coming from, ONLY what percentage is filtered to the back pocket.

It's not about aircraft, you can call it Gautrain, Koega harbour, La Merci airport, new WC stadium, new SANDF arms, new power stations, etsc. etc.

The aircraft is just a way to the means.

[newcrew]

agree totally

[countingteeth]

The widebodies (77W) are for LHR - JNB service. Overwater ETOPS is not required. 120min is sufficient for over Africa operations. Sunair had some 77W slots reservered, I wonder if its not these. The narrow bodies are to replace frames that have gone to Mango.

EDIT : PS-> SAA did have 7 x 772s on order years ago. Cancelled them when Coleman left... (ZS-SCA to ZS - SCG)

[evanb]

Someone is a little confused here: the original talk was for short term leases for 3 long haul aircraft - not new builds! Any 77W would have to be new builds and would take years to arrive - there are currently 362 unfilled orders for 777 models, and Sunair hold no delivery slots! Conside3ring they only delivered 75 aircraft last year do the math to see how long the wait is! None of the leasing companies have any uncommitted deliveries, they last ILFC slots have already been allocated. Singapore has just ordered some more A330 since the order list for 777 is too long. If Singapore can't get earlier slots then I don't see how SAA can! I can understand SAA taking quite a few 77W in the long term but 3 frames in the short term would be impossible! However, they could get 772 or 773 A models (non-ER) but they would struggle to operate JNB-LHR (range is just too short given hot and high conditions in JNB). And if they only wanted the aircraft for JNB-LHR then why 3 frames when you only need 2?

SAA did have an order for 4 772 and an option for 3 more, but they were canceled and the deposits used as part payment for 2x 744 SAA got in 1998 (SBK and SBS).

SAA doesn't need to replace the frames that went to Mango since the 738 was underutilized in the SAA fleet which is why they were often leased out for the European summer charter season. They want the frames for some expansion within Africa and possibly to move more frames to Mango.

[SortieIII]

What is a 'frame'?

[Shrike200]

It's short for 'airframe', ie 1 X plane. ;)

[Malagant]

"Frame"...of mind at SAA..? Not many sound minds there anyway..but it will mean that some lucky crew will get to pole a 777..:ok:

[evanb]

That lucky crew will only get to drive a 777 in 2012 at the earliest and most likely in 2013 or 2014!

[SortieIII]

It's short for 'airframe', ie 1 X plane

Thanks, I was thinking pictures, sheesh!

[FMGEC]

At Khaya's feed back on Monday he reportedly said that first choice is A330s and B738s. I must agree that he could struggle to source those but lets wait and see.
As for ETOPS SAA needs those big twins to operate to Lagos, Accra, Luanda etc. If what evanb says is true (and I have no knowledge to challenge or doubt him) then SAA will be able to do this no proble. 60 minutes ETOPS is fine for those sectors and would enable them to build up the hours required.
A far greater benefit of these A330s or B777s would be that they release the longer range quads from this regional and domestic flying and allow them to do international flights. Plus the better economies of operating a twin on 5 and 6 hour sectors.
Khaya is also reported to have said that the reason for extra widebodies is to add on Buenos Aires to SAA's route structure and then increase frequencies to Munich and other non-daily destinations.

[ERASER]

The A330 and B738 sounds about the most viable option as this will fit the current SAA Technical maintenance capabilities if you take into account this is a short term target. Introduction of a "new" a/c type (B772 or B773) into the maintenance schedule will cause havoc as they are taking strain under an endless stream of resignations of their best maintenance staff.

E

[Woof etc]

On the subject of ETOPS - does Nationwide hold ETOPS approval for the 767? I would suspect that on JNB - LHR the number of suitable airports in Central / Northern Africa would make ETOPS approval neccesary for any sensible routing. If so - how did they get their approval with only one aircraft?

[evanb]

Nationwide has ETOPS 120 approval on its 767 since this is the default. ETOPS 120 gives one almost a clear route on JNB-LGW! What SAA would really need in the long run if it had a fleet of twins was ETOPS 180 which would make North America and parts of South America (and maybe even Australia not on a great circle route) viable on twins!