PDA

View Full Version : Which ones will be the next to go in Europe


ppbob
9th Mar 2008, 16:51
Hi

Affecting the industri in Europe and I wonder which ones will be the next 5 out of business....or merged or overtaken in Europe in the near future ??
VERY interesting to have the opinion of ALL of You PP guys?
My Call;

1. Alitalia
2. Spanair
3. BMI
4. LoT
5. SAS
............more

Cheers ppbob:ok:




Lets have a serious screening of what we expect, interesting........

clipstone1
9th Mar 2008, 16:57
Spanair is 95% owned by SAS anyway, so unless they're sold off they'll only be affected by whatever happens to SAS group......

F14
9th Mar 2008, 17:22
Well after reading the BA press release last week it seems that oil at 120 dollars spells the end to normal operations in the airline world. So the question I guess, is will governments take over the Legacy carriers again?

In the low cost game, obviously those with the lowest costs and the largest amount of cash in the bank will survive.

winners

1. anything from middle east oil rich countries
2. government backed national carriers(air france)
3. true low cost carriers (Ryanair)
4. the chinese


Losers

1. Legacy Carriers without government backing
2. Companies who pretend to be low cost but aren't
3. Charter
4. Commercial training schools (credit crunch)

Personaly I would expect a large number is failures during this part of the cycle and a number of consolidations.

For pilots though I would say the picture over the next 5 years is one of change but ultimately I think the credit crunch will restrict the number of "loans" available for new CPLs and therefore will restrict supply and increase our T & Cs at the succesful companies as they compete to keep their airframes working...

cesare.caldi
9th Mar 2008, 17:25
For me low cost airline near to be closed are Skyeurope and Vueling due to financial problem and price war.

befree
9th Mar 2008, 18:06
BA will still make a profit when oil is $120/barrel as it can reduce its flying programme in the off peak. $120/barrel is were the existing flying programme makes no money at current fares.

I am banned from saying what happens to S-------- if oil is $120,

Most airlines can just retire a few of their oldest planes and drop the odd rotation

PAXboy
9th Mar 2008, 18:25
Bear in mind that European govts cannot give large financial rescues to their former nationalised carriers.

Of the European legacy carriers, Alitalia and Olympic are high up the list to be taken over by others or simply to fail and close and then reopen in the style of Swiss Air / Swiss.

I reckon that British Midland are vulnerable - once the old man has finally retired. Their slots at LHR will make them a prize and it would not be a surprise of LH finally took them in.

Channex101
9th Mar 2008, 18:58
I wish people wouldnt start treads like this, it actually creates rumours, and airlines thrive on them, unfortunatly when your taking about "who will be the next to go" people start to get worried, its their jobs and lives at risk. I have a good friend working for SkyEurope and we have just read this, she is now worried after reading SkyEurope could be nex to go due to their financial state and price war. If this thread carries on then please tread carefully as people start to worry when they see their company name branded all over here as "NEXT TO GO"

Pilotdom
9th Mar 2008, 21:04
Jet2 to be purchased by Easyjet I reckon.

The point made above is a good one. A thread like this effects airlines and there employees however, financial newspapers are printed day in day out with rumours and facts and figures about how well a company is performing. How these opinions are formed could be hear-say, interpratation of fiancial data, or external market forces that could have an effect on performance and cash flow, such as the $100 a barrel oil. As a result this thread is no different, and people's opinions should be taken for what was paid for them..... Nowt:}

F14
9th Mar 2008, 21:14
Goldman Sachs are projecting a "Super Spike" of 200 dollars a bucket.

Because dollar bills are now toilet paper, everybody is jumping into gold,silver and oil to ride out the storm.

Lots of Nationalistion coming up.....

Crewing Gimp
9th Mar 2008, 21:27
What has Jet2 got that Ryan/Easy would want? Agree with Channex 101 rumours can be very dangerous...:oh:

The Gimp

Charlie Roy
9th Mar 2008, 21:39
For me low cost airline near to be closed are Skyeurope and Vueling due to financial problem and price war.

I think Vueling will merge with Click Air (previously rumored), but no idea as to what form this (new) airline would take.
Sky Europe are defo in bad form, if they don't make this summer work, then it'll be their last summer ever.

But before all others, I think Centralwings will be the first to fold.

Ryanair could take over most of Central's interesting routes without even setting up a Polish base. Wizz would also mop of a few of them up for sure. Maybe even Norwegian would be tempted to embark on a second Polish invasion, and reinforce themselves further in the region.

As for Sky Europe's routes, Ryanair are already present in Bratislava, and a Bratislava base wouldn't be such a bad idea, especially in the wake of Sky Europe when the airport would be desperate to replace lost routes / pax / jobs. Ryanair have had on and off negotiations with Vienna, maybe it won't be too long before we see them there.
Sky Europe disappearing off the Prague radar would probably encourage other airlines to look closer at this airport: Easyjet, Ryanair, A LCC version of Czech, Aer Lingus, Wizz, Air Berlin, German Wings, Air One etc...

Channex101
9th Mar 2008, 22:19
Cant see Easyjet buying Jet2, Jet2 is going down a different market now to Easyjet, and althought LS is a PLC, its 2 main shareholders are the CEO an MD, so not enough left for the likes of Easyjet to buy them out.

eu01
10th Mar 2008, 21:00
Before all others, I think Centralwings will be the first to fold. Very likely. But first, I would legally ban them from using the term "low-cost airlines". :\
Sky Europe disappearing off the Prague radar would probably encourage other airlines to look closer at this airport.I'm not so sure. Relatively, Sky is a newcomer in Prague. Even before they came, the market there has already been saturated to some extent. Much incentive for lcc's to develop a bit further would rather give the opening of a brand new low-cost airport (like Vodochody, located 13 km north from Prague) even if PRG-Ruzyne isn't the most expensive in the region.

The Big Easy
10th Mar 2008, 21:05
My Thoughts

1. Globespan........Bust
2. Jet2.................Bought by Ryanair.
3. Virgin..............Bought by Lufty.
4. Openskies........None starter.

TBE.

840
10th Mar 2008, 21:53
F14->Although the price of oil has been going through the roof, the price is paid in dollars. As you say, that's looking like toilet paper at the moment. The price of oil in Sterling or even more particularly Euro doesn't look anything like as scary.

captainyonder
10th Mar 2008, 23:11
Just proof that this is no longer a forum for PROFESSIONAL pilots. Please mods move to the spotters forums. If there were some sensible posts then it may have a place here, but frankly I've never heard of All Italia! The prospect of Virgin being bought by Lufthansa is pure fantasy, as is Flybe going out of business. Globespan will not go bust, they are well financed, suprisingly succesful and load factors are good, the trouble with the long haul program was well documented, but generally they have done very well with their core Scottish routes to the sun. Openskies will happen whether you like it or not, BA have gone public with it, there will be no going back from that now, it would dent their reputation within that particular sector far too much. bmi, LOT and SAS are all perfectly secure, these are peoples jobs that spotters without a clue are so gruesomely enjoying speculating about. If you had a clue and any foundation then they might be valid, but they are uneducated stabs in the dark.

cesare.caldi
10th Mar 2008, 23:15
Skyeurope Passenger traffic figures

February 2007 202,851 Load Factor 85.3%
February 2008 254,609 Load Factor 67.2%
Change Passengers +25.5%
Change Load factor -18.1%

Richard Taylor
11th Mar 2008, 07:13
Captainyonder is correct, this thread is nothing more than a fishing expedition.:=

Utter waste of bandwidth, sorry.:ugh:

Mr A Tis
11th Mar 2008, 11:01
Yes a very negative, pointless & possibly damaging thread. Reckon this is one for the bin.

pee
11th Mar 2008, 11:25
Unnecessary negative - yes. Started in a wrong way - yes. Possibly damaging - yes. However, if the subject were expressed in an other way, like: "Why the financial situation of some European carriers is deteriorating?" it would't be totally pointless. It's good to have some idea about the economical status quo.

captainyonder
11th Mar 2008, 11:27
Agreed, but the fact that it is uninformed spotters talking utter rubbish means that there is no value to this thread at all.

speedrestriction
11th Mar 2008, 11:31
Yes, I can just imagine it, hordes of stockbrokers and financiers huddled over their computers, nervously awaiting each post on this thread. As far as I know PPRuNe is yet to sink an airline. Off to JB with this.

befree
11th Mar 2008, 11:49
Can I agree that we should have a tread on JB for how the airlines are going to do this year instead of doing it here. Then those who have a view can express it without upsetting the rest of you.

Airlines do fail and some like to know before and other do not. It is very important to those who are moving jobs to be careful. It is the oil price that will kill of airlines and not PPRUNe.

PAXboy
16th Mar 2008, 20:19
Alitalia accepts Air France offer

Troubled Italian carrier Alitalia has agreed to be bought by rival Air France for a cut-price 138m euros(£106m:$215m) in a move to save the state airline.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7299203.stm


Yes, it's true folks, AF saw my post that AZ was ripe for the picking and a mere 7 days later - they snap them up. The power of PPRuNe ... :p

Ian Brooks
18th Mar 2008, 23:47
Don`t know about those two but dropping Flybe after their announcement about BHX sounds a good idea

To be honest I don`t think this is doing anybody anygood and with banks getting themselves in a mess I think negative comments about any company could do a lot of harm

Ian

fredtheanorak
20th Mar 2008, 17:18
Jet2 share price has collapsed this week despite lower oil prices. Anyone know whats happening there?

FlyboyUK
20th Mar 2008, 20:44
It's time to stop all this speculation. Look what damage it has caused to the banks this week. It causes nothing but worry and upset to the employees of airlines when stupid mindless when un-founded rumours are started with no fact or substance.

The SSK
20th Mar 2008, 20:58
Oh, untwist your knickers. There's a monthly magazinr called Airline Business, a glossy stablemate of Flight, which will tell you all of this and more. There are very few secrets out there in the real world, and Pprune is a valuable source, but it's not the only one.

Charlie Roy
31st Mar 2008, 09:32
I see this on the Centralwings website under "Network Optimisation":

The list of flights to be made in the 2008 summer season
Warsaw - Lisbon
Warsaw - London Gatwick
Warsaw - Edinburgh
Warsaw - Dublin
Warsaw - Bologna
Krakow - London Gatwick
Krakow - Barcelona / Gerona
Krakow - Rome / Ciampino
Krakow - Bologna
Krakow - Athens
Krakow - Amsterdam
Gdansk - Edinburgh
Gdansk - Dublin
Gdansk - Rome / Ciampino
Poznań - Rome / Ciampino


Is this an even further reduction in routes that was already communicated?