Ok, I'm seriously worried now.. DOWNTURN

[Trevor Macken]

Hi All,

Forgive me for the severity of the heading but I'm seriously worried about my proposed training path due to the previous DOWNTURN thread.

My Story:

Self funding,31,married, no kids, moving to the UK in April to start full time modular,Wife understanding and willing to move but 'slightly' worried abt current market situation. The funding of this will come from re-mortgaging a rental property to abt 90% of its value.

My question's:

1)Should I wait 6/12mths+ to start. I appreciate I can get the PPL and ATPL theory out of the way before christmas and then review or should I just hold fire completely and wait until the start of '08 ?

2) Should I head for the U.S. instead and do a modular plus F.I. add on to bring me up to 1,000hrs.... Opinions appreciated...

This, ultimately is a decision that WILL affect the rest of my life, please feel free to voice your opinion be it negative or positive.

Thank you and keep up the good work...

T.M.

[Nichibei Aviation]

What's your current status?
Where do you live now?
Do you have a job?
What's your budget?

[Trevor Macken]

N.A.

DO NOT AND I REPEAT DO NOT turn this thread into a sales pitch for your FTO.As I said this is my future not a sales opportunity for you. Please do not respond to ANYTHING on MY thread.

T.M.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I the PPL and Atpl exams this year then assess. I would say more but I,m snorkelling off shark point right now and half way through lunch...

WWW

[che turner]

Hi, am in the same boat as you, am looking at starting my full ATPL,s in 3 mouths, I am going over to the US. my house in on the market this will pay for my training. I will just going out there to get my FAA PPL and some hours and then take my JAA ATPL,s ground school. As this is valid for bit. And if the job market looks good then do the rest. Or go down the root of full integrated in western Australia, as I have family that work for Qantas in oz and MAY help the cv to the top of the pile. I know that there is a big difference in price, from my two options.

This is how I fell. But I may wrong.

[A and C]

The way that I see it is the European economy is basicly sound but as always the stock market panics at the slightet thing.

One reason for this is that the traders are making money by moving stock around and as long as the market is moving they are making money.

The downturn in UK property prices is long overdue, the constant increase has been fueled by the UK's obsession with owning a house, endless property makeover programs on the TV and the estate agents trying to keep the market moving. Prices had to stop and stablize and as long as you don't want to move and can make the payments the "negitive equity" is not an issue as it will go away in 18 months.

At the moment I don't see Joe public going without his week in the sun he will just put off the new car for a year if required.

The advice from the Welshman is basicly sound, but remember if you can get into an airline at the start of the upturn you will be so much better places when the next downturn comes along so don't delay for too long.

[Bearing 123]

WWW I've got to get me one of those waterproof laptop thingys Cool:cool:

Trevor, The previous thread on the downturn kind of says it all really. Its all about research, contacts etc. Its always a risk and you have to listen to everybody, including Nichibel.

Good Luck:ok:

[gti200fsi]

Just go for it and forefill your dream. No one on this site have a nice clear crystal ball they can look into to predict what`s going to happen in the next few years.

I`m also 31 starting up this summer.

[5150]

You have to ask yourself; Would you rather have a licence during a downturn, or not have a licence when it picks up again?

I had to make that decision after 9/11 and decided I was much better off with a licence, than without. . . .

Get the licence out of the way, go back to work somewhere else in the interim, then at least you'll be ready to go armed with a CV saying 'Yes, I've got a licence'

No company in the world is gonna look at you if you're without a licence or in the process of getting one. . . .

[AlphaMale]

Trevor,

I'm in the same situation as you only a few years younger and minus the wife.

I'm looking to do my class1 medical in May and take 4 weeks off work in June to get my PPL done in the UK (B-F-C). I'll start my ATPL exams at the end of the summer and hopefully finish them by the start of the summer of '09. I'll assess my cash flow / pilot employment / our economic status and then make my decision on what else to do.

I'll either continue with plan 'A' ... MEP+IR & CPL.

or

Plan 'B' ... CPL & FI (cheaper option and a better chance of landing a job), then get my MEP+IR & MCC done two years after, I'll have over 1,000hrs instructing and probably over 1,200hrs TT.

Good luck.

[mustflywillfly]

Plan 'B' ... CPL & FI (cheaper option and a better chance of landing a job), then get my MEP+IR & MCC done two years after, I'll have over 1,000hrs instructing and probably over 1,200hrs TT.


Excatly the way I am going from April this year. Although I still have 52 hours to fly (A and C - I keep meaning to e-mail you will do it over the weekend promise) and the ATPL exams to get out of the way! I think this is by the far the best option (if you can afford to earn £10k a year). The worse case sceanario is no job and back to doing what you used to do but with the bonus of taking bods flying everynow and then with them paying you for the privelege or back to old job and do some part time instructing for free (still free hours building).

Ok back to the day job, shuffling paper around the desk whilst secretly studying groundschool on the computer! :E

Good Luck.

MFWF:ok:

[Trevor Macken]

Thanks guys I really appreciate your input.

t

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Just go for it and forefill your dream. No one on this site have a nice clear crystal ball they can look into to predict what`s going to happen in the next few years.

:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Dane-Ger]

I have a PPL and am currently studying for my APTL's with CATS.
My plan is USA later in the year.

You can worry put things of, play it safe, whatever, but at the end of the day I know this is what I am meant to do.

The worst case senario is that after selling our house to fund my training, myself, wife and three children will have to rent for a while. life will go on, I may be an unemployed pilot, but I WILL have that license.

I may have to work a while part time instructing, I may have to pay for the privilage of hiring a plane to keep current. But there are many things in life worse than being broke, ask anyone who is serously ill.

Life is short, I intend to enjoy it, fly it and be pilot, no money worries or possible downturn is going to stop me in that goal!

regards D-G:ok:

[gti200fsi]

G-spot. Are you afraid someone will cut in front of you in the line?

[Nichibei Aviation]

Dear Trevor,

A big part of "students" on this forum are not more than disguised flight school employees submitting beautiful stuff about their schools.

I'm a flight school employee but I'm not disguised and I repeat again, I don't sell JAA courses.

Why don't you consider an FTO in your own country instead of moving the entire company to the UK?
The UK is one of the most expensive aviation countries in Europe. Add to that living costs are very expensive there.

So what's the country you are living in now?
And what's your budget?

I'm happy to help.

[mcgoo]

Trevor


N.A.

DO NOT AND I REPEAT DO NOT turn this thread into a sales pitch for your FTO.As I said this is my future not a sales opportunity for you. Please do not respond to ANYTHING on MY thread.

T.M.


Great attitude Trevor, N.A as far as I can read was asking questions relative to your post, maybe nobody should reply to YOUR thread!

[BitMoreRightRudder]

A big part of "students" on this forum are not more than disguised flight school employees submitting beautiful stuff about their schools.



Really.............:hmm:


Trevor

Determination and the misty-eyed "it's my destiny" type posts from some on here are great but they won't help you pay back the debt you will be taking on. All that is being said is don't take on more debt that you can reasonably service. Jobs for low hour pilots could be very hard to come by for the next 1-2-3 years.

[Dane-Ger]

"Determination and the misty-eyed "it's my destiny" type posts from some on here are great but they won't help you pay back the debt you will be taking on"

of course you are right, but there are many levels of debt and various paths to flying for a career, some more sensible than others at this point in time.

but it doesn't change the fact that if you want it bad enough you will move heaven and earth for it.

Many of my friends think I'm crazy selling my house and uprooting my family, maybe they are right, but money is only money, having lost too many people close to me in my short life it is not important in the grand scheme of things.

I have read often on here recently "the party is over, make sure you have a seat when the music stops"

well I like to think that when the party starts again I will be ready with my license!

regards (and slightly misty eyed:)) D-G

[BitMoreRightRudder]

Nothing wrong with being misty eyed Dane-Ger! Just be careful.

Good Luck :ok:

[G-SPOTs Lost]

G-spot. Are you afraid someone will cut in front of you in the line?

Only at the bar.

I've said my £0.02, I'm off back to usual forum :oh:

[nuclear weapon]

I wouldn't be too worried about a downturn if I were you. I started my training during one and now have a well paid job. There will always be a shortage of experienced pilots. And as long as there are humans on this planet people will always want to travel its like eating and looking for somewhere to put your head at night. My advice to you is to go for it.

[Brainstorm]

I have been in aviation for quite a long time (started in 1990), there has never been a good time to start. This business is just uncertain full stop, and it goes in cycles. I think aviation probably has peaked this time around, and there will probably be less jobs next year.

I think the question you should be asking is if you want a career in a rather uncertain industry that is very sensitive to economic trends etc. If so, then I think now is as good time as any to start.

And don't believe the flying schools, they have always predicted an enormous pilot shortage 'next year'!!

[Trevor Macken]

mcgoo,

I based my statement regarding N.A. from his input responded to on a previous DOWNTURN thread. Pardon me for not wanting to turn this thread into a school yard scrap... I want people's opinion's about the question's I asked not whether I should rent out Wallstreet, get myself a Gordon Gecko 3 piece and discuss whether I should buy buy buy or sell sell sell... Have I gone a little astray from the point of the thread or the context of my original question's !!!!!

Again, I'll repeat this is my future career, at my age I don't think i'll get a second chance. The feedback and some P.M.s have been very useful to date. I'd like to keep it that way...... If I sound grumpy, I am....

"Greed is good my friends......" Mr Gordon Gecko 1985.....

T.M.

[v6g]

The downturn over the next couple of years wouldn't worry me - it'd would probably make me train cheaper and slower and pay more attention to a backup career, but I think there will be job growth around by 2010-12.

what has swayed me against aviation as a career is the long term future for cheap oil. Just this week Chevron announced that they're only replacing 15% of their reserves despite massive increases in exploration investment. For the industry as a whole it's 75% - that's unsustainable - the cheap stuff is running out. I just can't see that the world has enough cheap oil to sustain a viable career for someone in their 20's early 30's and I don't want to be the first out of a career in a time of global recession. It's sad and I'd love someone to prove me wrong.

But hey - it's Friday afternoon and spring is just round the corner!

WWW: that's isn't 'Shark Point" in western australia by any chance? Watch out - it's called Shark Point for a reason - one of them came within about 3ft of 'avin my leg off a couple of years ago.

[chrisbl]

someone will have to fly them.

http://travel.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/travel/news/article3330668.ece

[v6g]

That report originates from Airbus. Manufacturers aren't known for playing down their products.

[IRISHPILOT]

Hello TM.

When I started my training, I was older than you and single. Completing studies in 2001 was not the best of times, but this is unpredictable. There seems to have been a peak now, which is usually followed by a downturn of several years, but again, this is unpredictable.

People do a JAA PPL only for sentimental reasons, as you loose it when you do the CPL from the same authority.

I do believe the path you are considering of doing a PPL followed by groundschool may be a suitable one: Do a PPL during your holidays preferable in the US (this PPL allows you to fly in Europe and is valid for life, is sufficient to start the JAA ATPL, remains current with minimum effort / expense). Then do a JAR ATPL groundschool part time (why in one of the most expensive countries in Europe - If you know no other language, then there are still plenty other countries - Bristol groundschool comes to mind with a German FTO in Croatia, which would be a place to keep the wife happy too).

So by that time it is 2009 and you have spent money from your income only. Now relax, sit back with the wife and reevaluate. - I can imagine the stress this would have been, had I been in a relationship at the time: First job in Southern Africa, followed by Eastern Europe, South America, Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa. (Now happily back home.) This does not have to go the same way for you, but once you are committed (when the real money starts: hour building + CPL, that's where you cannot afford compromises. - Can your wife support you financially from home or will she move around with you without a job and friends, living in your hotel room while you do what you love?

Good luck with whatever yous decide! IP

[Brainstorm]

The problem with becoming a pilot is that you are investing some 60-70k into obtaining skills that are essentially non-transferable. The only thing you can do with a pilots license is to fly airplanes, hence if there are any problems on the job market then it is not so easy to move on to a different type of job. Therefore I would recommend maintaining some other skill set on the side of your aviation career if you can, lots of pilots do.

I think aviation will always be there, it is essential ingredient to a strong economy, and I can't see us traveling by boat to Australia, but I think the days of low cost city hopping may be counted. Fuel prices keep going up exponentially and the environmental issue is not going to go away any time soon. Even if aviation is not the biggest threat to the environment it is a much debated issue, putting pressure on politicians to raise taxes etc.

My guess is that aviation will stagnate next year, but will probably recover in a couple of years again. However, I am not certain it is a viable alternative for the long term future.

[wangus]

The decision to go down this road is a very difficult and serious one. I decided five years ago to go for it, at the modular pace, as I was nearly laughed out the door by the HSBC bank manager in Redhill. Last week I passed my Multi IR in the UK, having funded the whole thing while working full time, with 2 periods of unpaid leave thrown in. My partner (wife to be) was always very supportive, but did grow tired of the process and very occasionally reminded me of the sacrifices she was was making as well. Passing the multi Ir at Bournemouth filled me with joy for about 2 days, and picking up licence with Rating from CAA three hours after I dropped it off was icing on cake. THEN the reality began to sink in. All the contacts I have made in the industry (numerous) so far are saying if you want to walk into an airline job, consider a type rating. (this old debate) Opinionless. I simply cannot afford a type rating. I have been investigating the air taxi option as I would happily do that. I would position post-maintenance singles/twins back to base. Aerial photography. Pleasure flights. Volunteering to be a safety pilot. Pilot's assistant. I did start my PPL with visions of sitting in a 757 a couple of years later. Most of us do I presume, and a few of us do land those positions. I suppose all I am saying is, yes, go for it. You only live once. Better to regret the things you do than the things you didn't do. But be under no illusions about the potential delays, massive increases in predicted costs, stress to partner, loss of income, and desperate feeling I am feeling at moment wondering where to find that first lucky break.

[HZ123]

Wangus; Very well put I am sure we all wish you every success and hope you will not have to wait long at all.

[Right Way Up]

Wangus,
I am sure with your positive attitude, your time will come. Good luck! :ok:

[rmoller]

Lol, if there is a downturn coming in the near future then now it is the time to start your training, you will be finished when everything is alright again :}.

[I am scared of not f]

Thats what I am thinking about doing save taking out that huge loan. Once the theory is out the way you can then work on your flying training.


:ok:

[Red max]

Downturn I thought the industry was heading to a boom!?!l As far as I've seen and by the simple logic more people = more customers :} , It's the safest and fastest way of travel!

"Airbus predicted that the trend of worldwide air travel doubling every 15 years would continue"

That's what I've been hearing lately and the shortage of pilots(mostly from aviation schools & companies) but that's some how true, from 10 students 3 might choose to become pilots and only one will eventually continue until the end, That's exactly what i saw happened many people applied few passed the tests then even fewer continued due to the high expenses and uncertainty.

I can't think of another career and I'd rather to snuff it, to do myself in(to die peacefully) than to go back to the uni and study something that I don't like Downturn or not I'm gonna start my training.

Good Luck to you All

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Look. I want you all to achieve your dreams. But a lot of you do not understand what happens to this industry when the economy enters a recession. It is much worse than many of you think.

Its just a friendly warning.

WWW

[dartagnan]

all this sound strange, 1 company contacted me, and told me they will pay me( a lot) if I come for the interview.(please don't PM me, I will not answer, just look at my profile))

then I got from another big big company' letter, which contacted me for an interview too:eek:.

so downturn?, maybe, maybe not?but if you want stay on the safe side, keep your money and go modular, so if things go bad or very bad , you are not in deep s....

[corsair]

The one thing, I would say to anyone considering becoming a professional pilot is to put away any misty eyed notions of it being a 'dream' or 'vocation'. It's not, it's a job, at best a profession. So you have to consider like any other job whether it be hairdresser/quantity surveyor/callcentre operater (sorry sales executive). You get training then you get a job, usually starting at the bottom. Once you are working as pilot, instructing, para dropping whatever you can look to the next step. Once you earn money off flying, you have achieved the 'dream'. You are a pilot. You go from there. I have detected recently the attitude among some people that unless you get straight into the right seat of some jet or other with 300 hours, then you're a failure.

What I'm saying is if you want to become a professional pilot. Then go for it. You might not get a highly paid flying job immediately after training (or ever). You will probably get a lowish paid job, initially. You might have to travel further away than the UK to find work. Failing that, you must have had some kind of career before you took the plunge. You can go back to that and wait out the downturn.

It's just a job. If you wanted to be a Doctor or something else like that you would have to commit a similar amount of time and money to train for it too.

One thing though, you need to keep the wife onside. That means, she has no illusions about tough this can be. Mine is a brilliant but had her moments.

But in the end I got my first job when the boss rang me and offered me my first flying job over the phone without meeting me. It happens!

[Nichibei Aviation]

all this sound strange, 1 company contacted me, and told me they will pay me( a lot) if I come for the interview.(please don't PM me, I will not answer, just look at my profile))

then I got from another big big company' letter, which contacted me for an interview too:eek:.


Patience is the key my friend, good luck ;-)

[Smell the Coffee]

I'm thinking of starting training in the next couple of months, possibly autumn.

We are not yet in a recession. The fact is no one knows whether the US etc. will enter the technical definition of a recession and if so, its severity - not to mention the effect on other regions of the world.

How long would a recession last? Its effects typically take time to make themselves felt, but the airline industry usually feels the full blast first which in some ways is a good thing.

The structure of the airline industry has changed significantly in the US, Europe and now other regions of the world. Low-cost airlines and US-EU Open Skies have created new opportunities (and pitfalls).

Asia is increasingly becoming an industrial and financial-services powerhouse. It may yet escape the worst ravages of any recession elsewhere.

No one knows. We only know life is finite.

Follow your dreams, take a leap - just have that parachute ready.

[saccade]

Shell's CEO Jeroen van der Veer expects now that oil supply will decrease after 2015. Even Bush admitted that the Saudi's might not be able to boost their production. http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4140859

Unless a 'miracle' happens, this reality will take aviation back to the days when it was a rich mans' game. $100 oil might not be a big deal, but the real fireworks will probably start around 2015.

[Nichibei Aviation]

Miracle is already happening.

They're looking to produce jet fuel from CO².
Here's the article:http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/01/23/221024/jet-fuel-from-solar-powered-carbon-disassociation-process-possible-say-scientists.html

[wangus]

Athabasca Oil Sands, 400 years reserve at current production.

[saccade]

Miracle is already happening.

They're looking to produce jet fuel from CO².
Here's the article:http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...cientists.html (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/01/23/221024/jet-fuel-from-solar-powered-carbon-disassociation-process-possible-say-scientists.html)

Unfortunately they need another 15-20 years. By that time we have the new hypersonic airliner flying on hydrogen! http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=512375&in_page_id=1770

Unless we have already colonized Mars...

Athabasca Oil Sands, 400 years reserve at current production.

Yes, and their current production is about 1 m b/d, and they try to increase it to 3 m b/d by 2020. On a global demand of about 85 m b/d increasing to 115m b/d by 2020, this is only a small portion. The issue is that the Middle East is probably unable to compensate for the depletion of other oil sources around the world, and without this 'easy oil' global peak oil production is getting very close.

[Brainstorm]

The press and media are always coming up with new things that is going to kill us all, because fear and drama sells. SARs, super volcano, meteors, terrorism, global heating, bird flu, and on it goes. It is never as bad as they make it out, mainly because humans have a cunning ability to adapt and also to deal with problems.

Guess they have to sell their boring stories somehow....

Aviation may not grow at its current rate in the future, but it will always be there.

[rmoller]

http://www.shell.com/home/content/aviation-en/news_and_library/press_releases/press_release_20080201.html

And world's gas resources can still give us enough gas until 22nd century

[dartagnan]

enough fuel for planes if all cars run with less than 2-3l/100km.(hybrid engine)and if we use more solar energy,nuclear,hydrogen...

so I think there will be enough fuel for planes for another 60-100 years if we cut our fuel consumption by 2 or 3 in the next 5-10 years.(we will have to, price will go up and up)