Carlo Copp says!!!

[wessex19]

RAAF bases vulnerable to guided weapons: (Source:AAP)

A defence analyst says the infrastructure at Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) bases in northern Australia is inadequate and they are not properly protected in light of the expanding use of precision weapons.


Air Power Australia Group spokesman Dr Carlo Kopp says a number of RAAF fighter aircraft are housed under basic shelters, and concrete bunkers should be built to offer better protection from guided bombs and missiles.


He says money should also be spent on strengthening runways and developing underground fuel storages.


But the Australian Defence Force (ADF) says it does not see any need at this stage to strengthen its bases in northern Australia.


ADF spokesman Brigadier Andrew Nikolic says he is confident the bases are adequately protected.


"What I can tell you is the arrangements to protect our northern bases are continually re-evaluated and they ensure that our defences match whatever the threat is we assess," he said.


Brigadier Nikolic says the bases are constantly evaluated.


"Defence is satisfied that the current arrangements for protection of our people and aircraft at northern Australian bases do match current threat assessments and also strategic assessments of future threats at those bases," he said.

[tail wheel]

Not that I'm advocating spending a poultice on our northern airfields - but didn't the Yanks say the same thing before Pearl Harbour?

[Naked_recommiting]

'Air Power Australia Group'????

[L J R]

Should this story continue here (on this thread) or the Mil Forum thread..

...sorry I didn't check here first

[bilbert]

I think the Dr needs to get out more into the real world. He even quoted potential attacks by suicide bombers. Ah! - the 'Theoretical Terrorist' strikes again!.

[oldm8]

I thought nobody was listening to this git anymore, obviously I was wrong, and he is still spruiking ****.

[Shot Nancy]

Wessex19 posts.
The next five posts do not contribute and should be deleted. Back to the flight sim boiz.
Every asset is vulnerable to some form of attack. Build concrete revetments yet be susceptible to SAMs once airborne.
Quite a few papers are written for the purpose of professional discussion and for sowing the seeds of “what if”.
Anyhow do you ask Navy if Army bases are adequately defended?

[OZBUSDRIVER]

HooHum, this ol chestnut revisited. Two ways to defend against precision munitions. One, keep building stonger and stronger shelters as munitions increase in accuracy and penetration power. You still have no protection for your runway. Or, two, deployability off roads or made fields. And, three, V/STOVL aircraft combined with item two. The Swedes have been operating this way forever.

Stand off weapons make any fortification or establishment vulnerable. Thought that was the idea behind mimimum bases, we could be here, we could be there, we could be anywhere.:}

[aussie027]

Firstly to oldm8, Where do u get off calling Carlo a git and saying he is full of it??? :*
Care to share your credentials and background re defence analysis compared to his??

For everyone else who wants to be informed here is the link, Have a read-
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-2008-02.html
He is 100% correct in his assessment.

In time of limited conflict or outright war or when its outbreak is imminent it is too damn late to overhaul a countries defence infrastructure and equipment/platform types and numbers.
As we all know acquisition alone of large/ complex platforms like aircraft and ships costs a fortune and takes years to implement and they can be destroyed in a few minutes, literally.
Same for building or improving an airports infrastructure let alone an airbases. By the time all the wheels have turned and red tape processed it takes many years to get even a single runway built let alone all the suggested improvements at the end of the above article.

Our small air force cannot afford to lose even a tenth of its front line aircraft if it is to be able to fight even a limited regional conflict effectively. Every aircraft at one of these bases at the time of a well executed attack with cruise missiles or bombs would be gone in minutes.
That could be an entire fighter/strike Sqdn along with its tanker, AEW and transports if they are caught on the ground.
I have known Carlo for many years and he has worked tirelessly with no reward or thanks trying to help get our politicians and RAAF leadership better informed so their decisions do not leave Australia a sitting duck when the next shooting war breaks out which it will at some future date whether we are here to see it or not.

[ampan]

NZ has solved the whole problem: We have no need for any reinforced bunkers to protect our frontline aircraft, because we got rid of all our frontine aircraft.

It's worked brilliantly so far.

[Hempy]

Firstly to oldm8, Where do u get off calling Carlo a git and saying he is full of it??? :*
Care to share your credentials and background re defence analysis compared to his??

For everyone else who wants to be informed here is the link, Have a read-
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-2008-02.html
He is 100% correct in his assessment.

In time of limited conflict or outright war or when its outbreak is imminent it is too damn late to overhaul a countries defence infrastructure and equipment/platform types and numbers.
As we all know acquisition alone of large/ complex platforms like aircraft and ships costs a fortune and takes years to implement and they can be destroyed in a few minutes, literally.
Same for building or improving an airports infrastructure let alone an airbases. By the time all the wheels have turned and red tape processed it takes many years to get even a single runway built let alone all the suggested improvements at the end of the above article.

Our small air force cannot afford to lose even a tenth of its front line aircraft if it is to be able to fight even a limited regional conflict effectively. Every aircraft at one of these bases at the time of a well executed attack with cruise missiles or bombs would be gone in minutes.
That could be an entire fighter/strike Sqdn along with its tanker, AEW and transports if they are caught on the ground.
I have known Carlo for many years and he has worked tirelessly with no reward or thanks trying to help get our politicians and RAAF leadership better informed so their decisions do not leave Australia a sitting duck when the next shooting war breaks out which it will at some future date whether we are here to see it or not.

aussie027 is not affiliated in any way with "Air Power Australia Group" (but may have a significant commercial interest in the reinforced concrete industry :oh:)

[FoxtrotAlpha18]

I have known Carlo for many years and he has worked tirelessly with no reward or thanks trying to help get our politicians and RAAF leadership better informed so their decisions do not leave Australia a sitting duck when the next shooting war breaks out which it will at some future date whether we are here to see it or not.

Trouble is, he's aligned himself with the loony Goon mob :mad:, and his 'information' since, whether right or wrong, has been delivered in such a fierce manner that no one is willing to give him any time any more.:=

If he's so intelligent, why doesn't he realise that in order to play the game, you have to play by the rules. Stay engaged to be engaged etc. He overshot and the RAAF disengaged, game over.

[Buster Hyman]

Well, it's not limited to runways. Everytime they close a car factory, or production line, the oldies tell me "Where will they build the tanks & planes if a war breaks out?"

It's an old chestnut I know, but as a child during the Blitz, these things leave a lasting impression. If you've been through it, you'll always be thinking of how to defend against it happening again. Current generations believe that it won't happen or couldn't happen on the same scale, but history does tend to repeat.

We will be an extremely fortunate nation if a war never comes to our shore but, it's one thing to hope, and another to insure against it.:ok:

[aussie027]

aussie027 is not affiliated in any way with "Air Power Australia Group" (but may have a significant commercial interest in the reinforced concrete industry :oh:)No affiliation at all and no not in the concrete biz unfortunately,.....wish I was though tons of $$$$ to be made unlike in aviation :E:E:E
Ampan has made an excellent point, maybe people think we should follow the NZ strategy which was brilliant, lets bury our heads in the sand while sticking our asses in the air so it can get kicked (or worse :E) whenever any would be aggressor likes.

Buster Hyman said- Well, it's not limited to runways. Everytime they close a car factory, or production line, the oldies tell me "Where will they build the tanks & planes if a war breaks out?"

It's an old chestnut I know, but as a child during the Blitz, these things leave a lasting impression. If you've been through it, you'll always be thinking of how to defend against it happening again. Current generations believe that it won't happen or couldn't happen on the same scale, but history does tend to repeat.

We will be an extremely fortunate nation if a war never comes to our shore but, it's one thing to hope, and another to insure against it.:ok:That is exactly right and why we should all be worried.
The state of our defences despite all the ADF commanders and politicians bluster and spin is in a terrible state and in no shape to do more than barely defend us against a small regional threat let alone a large serious one. Decades of defence cutbacks as a result of the leadership failing to seriously consider many diff proposed possible scenarios from ever becoming a reality has already done its work and is continuing at a frightening pace.
If you look at the massive arms race going on in virtually every major country in Asia and the sub continent and the amount they have been spending on defence as a % of GDP compared to our own for the past 30yrs you will see the trends emerging.

As Wessex stated in his opening thread-
But the Australian Defence Force (ADF) says it does not see any need at this stage to strengthen its bases in northern Australia.
ADF spokesman Brigadier Andrew Nikolic says he is confident the bases are adequately protected.
"What I can tell you is the arrangements to protect our northern bases are continually re-evaluated and they ensure that our defences match whatever the threat is we assess," he said.
Brigadier Nikolic says the bases are constantly evaluated.
"Defence is satisfied that the current arrangements for protection of our people and aircraft at northern Australian bases do match current threat assessments and also strategic assessments of future threats at those bases," he said.This is the exact kind of DoD BS spin I am talking about.
Of course they think it is perfectly fine, they dont have 100s of millions of dollars or billions to spend on upgrading air bases as all the money has to go to buy the new platforms(aircraft in this case) to put on them.
As the world so tragically saw on 9/11 and the US on Dec 7th 1941 billions of dollars worth of infrastructure and 1000s of lives can be lost in minutes in an attack, even the one that was expected (attack in the Pacific by Japanese ) as outbreak of war was at that time imminent.

[Pinky the pilot]

Where will they build the tanks & planes if a war breaks out?"



Indeed! Whilst some may think this an absurd question, consider another saying by some ancient Philosopher whose name escapes me just now.......

''Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it''

Anyone who thinks that Australia will never again become involved in some form of a major regional conflict is IMHO fooling no-one but themselves.

During WWII a great deal of various types of war materiel (Yes, that is the correct spelling; check the definition in a dictionary:=) was made in various factories around Australia that in peacetime made general consumer goods.

For instance; The General Motors Woodville SA (later GMH Woodville) made amongst other things, 3.7in Anti Aircraft Guns.

Lysaght Sheet Metal made the Owen Sub Machine Gun whilst Lithgow Small Arms turned out .303s and Bren Guns by the thousands.

Other ppruners may have other examples but the point is, the manufacturing base in Australia is unfortunately slowly declining.

[Pera]

but the point is, the manufacturing base in Australia is unfortunately slowly declining

I don't know how much difference this would make in a modern conflict. Our ability to receive goods from the USA and Europe (also maybe South Africa or South America) would make the difference in a major conflict with our northern neighbours.

The ability to receive manufactured goods/arms (ie lendlease) made the difference to Russia and the UK in WW2.

[Buster Hyman]

Our ability to recieve goods from the USA
made the difference to Russia and the UK in WW2
And, God bless 'em, the Poms just finished paying off that debt recently! And the Russkies started a cold war to just wipe it!:rolleyes:

So, could this be why the RAAF only had Boomerangs & Wirraways to put up against the Zero's? (Heroes, all of them!) Could good kit have made a difference in the early days of the Pacific war? Didn't we still build most of the British & American here later on, as we couldn't get it shipped in significant numbers?...IIRC. (correct me if I'm wrong, I was once before!)

[Flyingblind]

I was amazed when first arriving to Australia 25 years ago how little SAM coverage the top end had. Many years later i'm still surprised.

Was always inpressed with the Bloodhound gate gardean at RAAF Darwin though.

It wouldnt be hard to get off the self gear though Patriot/Arrow - S300/400 anybody?

Or do we allready have the gear and its sitting in one of the underground bunkers in the Blue Mountains:cool:

[Cap'n Bunghole]

Back in the 80's we spent many millions of dollars on an early warning system and we continue to invest heavily in that area today - Wedgetail being the latest example. If we have ample warning that an attack is coming, aircraft can be scrambled to intercept or move to another base out of range.

Presumably the intel community will inform Defence when they need to be cocked and locked, so why the hell do we need to spend millions on concrete structures that can be penetrated anyway??

An atomic weapon is going to ruin our day, bunkers or not. Spend the money where it's needed!

Back to the drawing board Carlo....:ugh:

[aussie027]

Ah yes the magic of JORN, it may be a great system but not infallible. Even its early warning may not be early enough.
For eg sub launched supersonic cruise missiles could be fired from very close inshore and at M1.5 plus speed , small size/stealth and low altitude profile by the time they are , if they are detected and a correct ID made of the nature of the returns it would be too late to scramble anything.
The Americans had the Jap strike force on Radar too on the morning of Dec 7th but fat lot of good that did em as we know what happened with that info.
For the more technically inclined this might be worth a read.
The author of CH 5 is the one whose work is the topic of this thread.
http://www.scitechpublishing.com/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWPROD&ProdID=408

Enjoy.

[Mr Bomb]

I can't believe it, a couple of threads in a week that I an provide useful semi-intelligent prose to...

Firstly Carlo Copp is an idiot, whilst he maybe a great theorist, he has absolutely NO practical knowledge on what is required to maintain and operate aircraft, he has no idea on what the actual capabilities of the nations closest to us in the region are (he MASSIVELY overstates this continuously) and lastly he must think that Australia has the budget of the US to spend on defence.

On this particular subject I would just like to say that Saddam in January 2003 was recognised as having the BEST HAS (Hardened Aircraft Shelters) in the world. Yep impenetrable. That worked well didn't it Carlo?

There is an actual defence against these types of attacks however this would cost hundreds of billions of dollars just to fit out our five northern bases. Plus the fact that geographically most of the land in Northern Australia is not suitable to this defence (that might give you a clue...)

The second point on this I would make is that in order for there to be a threat, you have to have capability and INTENT!!! There are only two nations on Earth who could possibly hope to invade Australia and take over the country. That is the US and China. NO ONE in our region regardless of the pitiful few billion each country spends on Defence has even the remotest capability to put anymore than a couple of bombs on Darwin. yeah we might get a bloody nose but any country other than the US or China would find out very quickly not to piss off the West. How many countries would come to our defence. A lot of people say, yeah but what if they are engaged elsewhere? Very true, but I can assure you that most nation in our region along with nearly every western country in the world would come to our aid, probably even the French. People do talk of India and or Pakistan being a threat, and they do have the bomb, but I hate to tell you Carlo, there is **** all we can do militarily to defeat a nuclear device. No there is no THREAT to Australia’s security from conventional nations in our region.

As to a war, well hello everyone :ugh::ugh::ugh:, what do you think is currently happening. Our cities might not be under air attack and we might not be fighting the enemy on the streets of this country, but make no mistake, we are indeed in the middle of a war right now. If you think I am exaggerating mark my words that as previously stated Islamic Extremists want nothing other than the annihilation of our Western society and way of life. Yep we are relatively safe in Aus at the moment and this is because the enemy is too busy fighting the "good fight" in other parts, but this "war" isn’t going to be finished by the time everyone reading this today is long dead, it will go on for generations.

Carlo, defence against suicide bomber does not require Hardened aircraft shelters. I don't know if you have toured our northern bases, but other than Tindal and Darwin there is stuff all there. And my question to you is, why the hell would a suicide bomber who has high value, high impact assets as his primary would waste his miserable life on one Hornet (yes Carlo if we are at war we only put one aircraft per shelter...) when he could achieve a much bigger impact by walking into a daycare centre and detonating his bomb? Mate you really have no idea how the real world works, what the current and future threat is going to be. I reckon you should get out form behind you desk, head on over to Iraq, Afghanistan, Horn of Africa, anywhere like that, meet the people find out what they are pissed at and see if that changes your perception. Until then leave the real defence of this country to those who live in the real world sunshine. The cold war is over and it is a brave new world with new threats that will be here for generations.

Cheers
Mr B

[Cap'n Bunghole]

For eg sub launched supersonic cruise missiles could be fired from very close inshore and at M1.5 plus speed , small size/stealth and low altitude profile by the time they are , if they are detected and a correct ID made of the nature of the returns it would be too late to scramble anything.

Yes, but as Mr Bomb has already alluded to, what cracker is going to give away his sub's location and his nation's intent, to destroy a few Hornets that may (or may not) be under the shelters when the rockets hit?

In the real world, there are many, many factors that need to be considered for a particular scenario. Carlo hasn't visited the real world for a lot of years.
He has based all of his opinions on publically available material. This material will usually overstate the manufacturer's capabilities (eg: Sukhoi), while the operator (eg: RAAF) will usually understate his.

Add a Carlo bar chart with a Piggie at the top and you have a VERY skewed piece of writing that should be treated with suspicion. :suspect:

[rapiddescent]

Carlo Kopp has no idea. The more you listen, the more un-educated you become.

I am surprised he makes the press these days.

[Gundog01]

aircraft can be scrambled to intercept or move to another base out of range.

It humours me that people think a fighter can be scrambled at a moments notice. I'm pretty sure (read certain) no a/c at Tindal or Willy will be fully armed ready to scramble. Any one has a guess at the time required to retrieve and fit a serviceable AMRAAM or ASRAAM?

The state of our defences despite all the ADF commanders and politicians bluster and spin is in a terrible state and in no shape to do more than barely defend us against a small regional threat let alone a large serious one.

AUS27, you questions oldm8s credentials for defence analysis, where does your assessment of the above come from. Even if you are in the ADF you still only see one service and then only the small part you are involved in. It's a big call to say the ADF is in 'a terrible state'. Are you really that familiar with Army Airforce and Navy capabilities???

[sisemen]

the manufacturing base in Australia is unfortunately slowly declining.

That's no problem. We merely wait until the invading forces have settled then attack them with botulism served by our army of sous chefs and waiters. :E

But seriously folks..... Given the size of Oz then surely the best defence is lots of little diversionary strips with minimal facilities that could be upgraded within hours by a move out from main bases. Takes a heck of a lot of effort to find, target, acquire and destroy 2 or 3 assets hidden away.

The Normans reckoned that building bigger, stronger, impregnable castles was the right idea. Hmm.

[Magic Mushroom]

Is aussie027 WEBF's Australian cousin?!!!:rolleyes:

[BentStick]

the manufacturing base in Australia is unfortunately slowly declining.

You're kidding right :confused:

What about the ARH Tigers, MRH90s and Wedgetails built/being built in Brisbane :hmm:

It wouldn't surprise me if several more near future acquisitions also involve production in Brisbane (Air 9000 Ph7).

[Barry Bernoulli]

Nothing flies without fuel.