Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....

[Grass strip basher]

From Ryanair this morning... not the most optimistic reading

DUBLIN, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Airline Ryanair <RYA.I> posted a sharper than expected drop in third-quarter net profit on Monday and warned high oil prices, an economic slowdown in the UK and weak sterling meant profits may fall up to 50 percent next year. Europe's biggest low-cost carrier said excluding a one-off gain from the sale of aircraft net profit in the three months to the end of December fell 27 percent to 35 million euros ($52
million) as winter fares fell almost 5 percent.

That was below an average forecast of 41.8 million euros and in line with the lowest estimate in a Reuters poll of 10 analysts. Ryanair stuck to its full-year forecast for a 17.5 percent rise in the year to the end of March. It warned, however, there was a "significant chance" profits would fall in its 2008/2009 business year.

"The European airline sector is presently facing one of these cyclical downturns, with possibility of a "perfect storm" of higher oil prices, poor consumer demand, weaker sterling and higher costs," the airline said in a statement. According to the most optimistic scenario, profit next year
could grow 6 percent to 500 million euros if average ticket prices, or yields, stay flat and oil prices drop to $75 a barrel. "But at our most conservative, if forward oil prices remain at $85, and consumer sentiment/sterling weakness leads to a 5 percent reduction in yields, then profits in the coming year
could fall by as much as 50 percent to as low as 235 million euros (excluding profits from aircraft disposals)," it said. The company also said it planned to spend up to 200 million euros buying back shares which, based on its current share price, would equate to 3 percent of Ryanair's share capital. Ryanair's stock has fallen 18 percent since the start of the year due to fears over the impact of rising energy costs and the company's limited fuel hedging for the year starting April 2008. "We remain essentially unhedged for next year," Ryanair said on Monday.

[Nichibei Aviation]

Actually we're in the downturn right now and this was expected:

On 26/06/07 we read:

"We have a very conservative outlook for the next 12 months," says Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary. "The market is soft, yields are soft."
O'Leary adds the softening arrived unexpectedly after a benign first three months of the year. He says it is difficult to know why the market has softened but cites interest rate rises, the doubling of the UK's air passenger duty, increased airport charges and the continuing fall-out from increased security measures at airports as possible factors.


http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2007/06/26/215163/europe-quarterly-results-is-the-market-going-soft.html

No need to fear for pilot jobs, China and India need at least 5000 new pilots each, Europe and USA around 4000 each, over the next 5 years.

Airbus and Boeing together registered over 2400 new orders in one year.
More than half of the orders were for expansion and not for replacement.
For every new airplane that is bought for expansion, you need at least 12 new pilots. 2400 x 50% x 12= 24400 new cockpit seats booked in one year!!

And we're not yet talking about the VLJ revolution and the bizjet boom....

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The US is in recession and we will be there by the summer. Europe will tear itself apart economically as the Euro brushes up to 1.50 euro to the dollar. House prices have gone lower for 5 months in a row and the shareprices of the 4 biggest UK housebuilders are all down by more than 65%.

Interest rate cuts will be small and in many cases not passed on to borrowers. New credit is drying up fast and now the credit card companies are just terminating accounts with 35 days notice.

Without the credit there is no spending. Without the spending there is no economy.

The party is over. Those with £80k of debt, 200hrs and a lovely stack of CV's have my sympathy.


WWW

[Nichibei Aviation]

Moderator,

you don't have to buy everything the media tells you.

Politics are manipulating the media to lower the prices of houses, to make you live in fear etc,...

The airlines aren't buying this and what proves it best is that in January, Airbus and Boeing have booked strong orders again, more than the 2007 average monthly orders.

The problem is in the USA and nowhere else.
The airlines there are doing bad... but that's a political problem.
Since Bush came to power the US economy is in bad shape, with fuel prices rising 80%, the dollar dropping 70% over the Euro and the Japanese Yen.

MOL's "no fuel surcharge" policy was a pain in the ass for Ryanair (and MOL said it himself, "fuel costs lowered their profits") when the oil struck the 100$ barrier, while other carriers adapted by applying surcharges, which is why carriers like Swiss, Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and Brussels Airlines did very well in 2007.

There's no need to panic because Ryanair had worse results than expected, no. LCC's are typically the first ones to benefit from a passenger number increase in a recession...

[kwachon]

I beg to differ, the problem does not solely lie with the US and the Dollar. It was not the US that told the European financial institutions to buy into hedge funds!, lets get real here, they wanted to make some quick money by doing as little as possible, had some of these institutions done their homework, they would have seen the downturn in the US housing market and increase in foreclosures almost 12 months ago and surely when Bush changed the bankruptcy regulations, did nobody ask why he did that?, hint, they were on the rise!
The root cause of most of this is nothing short of greed and some of the institutions have now got their fingers burnt.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I do my own research thanks. You will find that as we entered the last recession in 1990 both Airbus and Boeing had full order books and long waiting times. It means nothing.

There has never been a US recession without the UK following suit. Given the dire state of the public finances there is little scope for increasing government spending to take up the slack left by the consumer going on strike. If you run an economy based on credit then eventually a credit crunch is inevitable.

With average houses now at 9 times average earnings an unwinding of around 30% looks inevitable.

I hate to tell you that the airline business is hit hard and fast in any recession. In Ryanairs press release that goes with MOL's appearance in the media this morning they mention profits going lower still despite 'profits from aircraft disposals'. If RYR are contemplating shrinking their fleet then that it very big news indeed for the industry.


WWW

[Nichibei Aviation]

The economy is a world of offer and demand, between production and consumption.

Banks invested in area's where demand was increasing strongly till it reached a peak, resulting in short term gains as you say but long term losses.

Property values fall, which means buyers with less financial power will not easily get to buy a house but will more easily buy a car (car prices drop aswell), fuel, food and rent apartments for less money, which leaves more money for leisure and travel.

A downturn in the financials and real estate sector really don't harm the economy as much as the economists and media pretend.


In Ryanairs press release that goes with MOL's appearance in the media this morning they mention profits going lower still despite 'profits from aircraft disposals'. If RYR are contemplating shrinking their fleet then that it very big news indeed for the industry.


MOL is not contemplating shrinking his fleet.
"One hears what he wants to hear".

Anyway a recession in Europe and USA is very welcome for my company ;-)

[speedrestriction]

I wonder where the price of oil is going to figure in all of this. With recession in the US, will our governments be applying a pressure to get OPEC/oil companies to reduce prices to give the economy reprieve? Apparently Shell in Europe have just had their most profitable year ever. Would any reduction in fuel costs simply be irrelevant in the face of reduced disposable income?

If people do have to dispose of their overseas properties I imagine the knock on effects on the UK routes especially on the off season load factors will be quite serious.

[HZ123]

Nichibei Aviation

On the other side it may be that people will spend less on everything irrespective of the reduced costs of consumer goods. In the UK it is very clear to me that fuel and in particular foodstuffs have increased considerably since January 2008. Whereas car prices seem to have been reduced because there are too many of them around. I think that many of us in the industry have been predicting downturn for the last few years and the longer it is in coming the worse it will be for many of us.

On another note I have seen a decline in GA / leisure flying for the last couple of years and it was particularly noticeable last summer. Is this reflected worldwide.

[BitMoreRightRudder]

The problem with Shell's announcement of record profits last year (something in the region of $1.5million an hour:ooh:) is that they didn't announce the results of their oil reserve analysis at the same time. That has widely been taken as a sign that the results are not going to benefit the consumers.

In other words the results suggest Shell (and Exxon etc) are removing more oil from the ground than they are discovering elsewhere. Which means all the political lobbying in the world is going to have little impact on the price of a barrel. If their research suggests we are running low on known oil reserves, the price of oil simply cannot drop. More likely $85 a barrel will be a fond and distant memory.

So all this suggests Ryanair, one of the most profitable airlines in the world, are looking at anything up to a 50% reduction in profits. Ryanair losing 50% of it's profits?

Oh dear:uhoh:

The party is over. Those with £80k of debt, 200hrs and a lovely stack of CV's have my sympathy

Harsh, but looking increasingly accurate. Good luck to everyone, even those of us with airline jobs are going to need it.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/money/2008/02/04/cnjobs104.xml

More than 100,000 jobs will be slashed in the retail sector over the next two years as the economic slowdown beings to take its toll, writes James Hall.

Then you have Egg sending letters to 161,000 of its card holders informing them that they have 35 days until their card is revoked and how would they like to pay? Halifax is slashing their credit limits on loads of cards - a friend of mine saw his limit slashed from £7,000 to £500 last week.

Its goodbye easy credit which is what is going to result in lots of shops closing and from there we start the downward spiral already evidenced in house prices.

Interest rates won't make much difference if you can't get the credit in the first place. Or the Mrs loses her job in the shoe shop whilst you have a 98% LTV mortgage (on interest only) that's about to jump 30% as you leave your previously fixed rate.. :(

Holidays and short breaks you can live without - Tescos and a roof over your head you can't.


WWW

[Grass strip basher]

Nichiebi you are hysterical.... house price falls mean people will buy more cars... a recession is good for Ryanair.... a recession is good for my company (do you work for a debt consolidation company?). Ask however many pilots you know whether a recession was good for the industry in 01/02 or the early nineties....

You are right the press do tend to sensationalise news stories but equally sticking you head in the sand like a ostrich is the wrong approach as well. The recruitment industry will tighten very very quickly over the next 12 months and if you are just starting you training you do need to thing about where we are in the cycle.

[andyb87]

So in summary... i take it those who are just starting out, or in my case in the process of sending my loan application off, basically needn't bother? Or am i incorrect...?

I'm assuming that a loss in profits for airlines is, in turn bad news for new, & current pilots? But then again, is this a long term forecast?

[davey147]

I personally have put an hold on my flight training for the next 12 months or so, this is definately not the time to start, hold on a little while see how it develops.

It all depends on who is funding your training, I am funding my own, so I dont want to spend all my money and have nothing at the end of it. Some others may be using the parents money and may not care whether they loose it all or not, others and the majority are probably taking large bank loans, these are the people that need to have a backup plan, as they will have to pay off the loan when their training is complete.

You need to time your training so you complete as the next upturn starts, hold of a while and see if you can estimate when it will be (probably 2010 - 2011), that is the time to start.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

If I could predict the future I wouldn't be here typing this message. Its ALWAYS been a risk investing in flying training and there are always concerns that you've missed the boat, there is no boat or that the boat has sunk.

If you are 20 and you have no idea that there is a strong likelihood of a recession and you have no idea what a recession means for pilot recruitment THEN I would say you are underprepared. In the 1990 recession several major airline stopped trading. As a result there were hundreds of experienced jet pilots with no job, a pressing mortgage and willingness to take any flying job in any part of the world for any money.

You can imagine how this impacted the job chances of someone with 200hrs and no commercial experience..

Brutally the clock begins ticking the minute you complete training. Every month the school churn out another batch just like you. Except they are more current. You haven't flown for another month, and then another, and then another. You are getting rusty. Your IR will expire soon and renewing it will cost you thousands of pounds. The bank manager wants to know when you are going to start paying back the loan. The clock ticks louder. The school churn out more students all more current than you. You're now so rusty you stand little chance of passing a sim ride even if an airline offered you one.

Pop! Your time has passed.

Sure. The industry will recover. It may take a year it may take five. But can you wait for it? Can you service the debt and keep current? Because if not then you may just have wasted all your money.

THAT is the issue that should be gnawing away at you night and day. If it isn't then truly ignorance is bliss.

Good luck,

WWW

[Grass strip basher]

Nobody is saying don't do it at all.... you are a grown up and part of thats involves taking resposibility for your oown decisions. Personally I would think very carefully about securing a loan on your parents house with no back up plan.

All WWW et al are trying to do is provide a bit of balance because coming out of training into the jaws of a potential UK/US recession with £80-100k of debt to repay and no-one recruiting is certainly a possibility.... what probability you assign to it is up to you.... weigh up the information at hand and fact that into your decisions making process be it modular/integrated/continue working/go full time etc etc.

[Bearing 123]

Without sounding all doom and gloom, I have to agree with WWW and the others who have been in this industry for a while now.

From past experience an economic downturn is very bad news for anyone hoping to work in aviation. Forget facts and figures, forget scare mongering, just research the effects of the last two recessions in the early nineties and post 9/11.

During these times it was practically impossible for a pilot with no experience to get a job. In fact even with experience it was difficult due to competition being fierce for every job. As WWW said "A roof over the head, or a holiday?" Sounds like a no brainer to me.

If I was starting out now and about to invest huge amounts of money, I'm not sure I would in the current climate. In saying that, the industry does go in cycles and when things are bad they have to improve at some point, so who knows what the next five years will bring.

[outside_loop]

i broadly agree with WWW, things don’t look good really, although he has more faith in the 'economic cycle' concept than i have. i hope it doesn’t turn out to be as bad as it might be, but i'm glad i was able to do the licences at relatively low cost, earn the money in advance and had a good career to go back to, which has mitigated any risk..


i wouldn't advise anyone to take on an £80K debt right now (and lets be honest - it was great when it worked, but there was a proportion of people for whom it didn’t, even in the good times). at present, the risk is far too great. also, for peolpe at school leaving age - i would say that its essential to have another string to your bow, so you don’t end up stacking shelves on the minimum wage paying your £80K off for the next 40 years, should you find you're not one of the lucky ones...

lets hope things look up before long!:ok:

[RVR800]

Employment at record high

Interest rates no where near the 15% they were when Lamont was in charge
actually interest rates will fall again soon and are well managed

Growth still on target and in range 2 ish percent

Still a shorthage of houses in the UK, a legacy from Thatchers suspension of council house building

Share prices bounced back nicely and all those people who bought at the trough are quids in :p


British Airways has reported healthy profits for the last nine months of 2007, despite rising fuel costs and the consumer slowdown.

Pre-tax profits came in at £788m, up 34.9% from the same period of 2006.

[chris-squire]

Just wanted to comment on the 12.1m euro Net Profit on Disposal of 5 aircraft... Whilst it's difficult as I don't know what method and % depn RYR apply to their fixed assets, to make 2.42m euro profit on disposal per aircraft I would think they write off the bulk costs of their assets pretty quickly. With that in mind I wouldn't be worried about them. They do have to keep the NBV of their assets in check as overstating their balance sheet at year end can get them (and their accountants) into alot of trouble! The time to become concerned is when they start making massive losses on disposal which would point to them trying to artificailly sustain their share price for as long as possible by Overstating their assets and reducing the depn that gets put through the books so as to increase profit.

I know their are loads of other aspects to consider and we won't know the actual state of their accounts in detail until they are published in full in 2 years time. But...for the time being my point is DON'T worry about RYR, they ain't going anywhere and their finances indicate that. The disposal of assets doesn't neccisarily mean that they're in trouble and trust me, they will have enough retained profit to call up for some years to come before they run out of money!

Hope this serves to restore some confidence but only time will tell whats really going on. For me it's too late, the loan agreement is signed, levaing job in 5 weeks, security currently being organised and course booked with deposits paid. So....I'm hoping that things perk up but I'm not sticking my head in the sand over this, simply looking at what is going on now. My honest opinion is that threat on a recession coupled with RYR disposing of aircraft has frightened investors and shares have dropped as a result. If it is anything else more sinister then wish me luck for the ******* bumpy road ahead. :uhoh:

Cheers

CS

Accountant about to turn Student Pilot

[Grass strip basher]

Since when did a listed company have 2 years to publish audited accounts??

[chris-squire]

Bit off topic but....

They have to be submitted to Companies house ASAP after Year End. But, unless you actually apply to Companies House (for which there is a charge) or you own over 5% then you won't see the detailed accounts published anywhere for 2 years after Year End as far as I know.

[mustflywillfly]

Interest rates no where near the 15% they were when Lamont was in charge
actually interest rates will fall again soon and are well managed


Interest rates were at 15 % when Lamont was Treasurer because inflation was spiralling out of control.

The reason they are not at 15% now is because the current Government would have us believe that inflation is under control. They have done this by systematically removing everything that happens to push inflation up. House prices, ooops better remove that, Oil prices, ooops better remove that. True inflation is probably running at around 20 % due to increasing energy, oil, food and peaked house prices. Unfortunately Joe Public has proved to be rather stupid over the last few years and borrowed excessively due to the perceived boom and easy credit. Current result, shed loads of debt, increasing food, oil, energy prices and mortage interest rates much higher then a few years ago. The possible interest rate cuts over the next few months are unlikely to be passed onto Joe Public's mortgage. We haven't even mentioned all the carbon offsetting bollox and the environmentalists who are campaigning that flying is evil. I think we can expect a very heavy landing in 2008.

Bugger really as I start my CPL in July and am studying my ATPLs at the mo. Oh well, ****e happens, nothing ventured nothing gained. Doubt has been ripping me apart for months now and I have finally made my mind up. Despite the backdrop. Mad? Possibly, don't care anymore, sometimes you just have to go with the gut feeling and see where the dice land. Fortunately I have been saving for 3 years and can do it all and remain debt free. Worse case sceanario = Qualified and unemployed but debt free.

:)

[Grass strip basher]

It is off topic so I won't labour the point but I think you will find a listed company has to get an annual report out with 3-6 months or so, certainly not 2 years.... I know of no listed company that takes more than 3-4 months to get the annual report out.

More importantly Chris I think you missed the whole point with your post... no one was saying Ryanair was in trouble... or gives a stuff about their depreciation policy... the issue is the outlook.... an unhedged fuel position.... falling passenger yields etc etc... if costs go up and revenues come down airlines tighten their belts and put expansion plans on hold... period. As the biggest recruiter of low houred pilots I admire your optimism... it will hold you in good stead if their are tough times ahead in 12-18 months when you come out of training.

[chris-squire]

MFWF - Good post!

Unfortunately for me whilst I haven't actually started training and won't do so for another 6 weeks, I am too far down the road with the bank to actually stop anything and to be honest I don't know that I would even if I could!

My gut feeling still says go for it. There's never a right time to spend this sort of money and they'll always be something thats happening in the financial world to worry me.

Like MFWF says, are we bloody mad? Possibly but nothing ventured nothing gained so crack on is my approach.

CS :ok:

[Oveur]

Flying is cheaper than it has ever been.
There is an increase in emmigration from eastern european countries
Everyone still needs to travel.

Everything is going to be ok folks! Relax

[BitMoreRightRudder]

Chris I think you missed the whole point with your post... no one was saying Ryanair was in trouble... or gives a stuff about their depreciation policy... the issue is the outlook....

Exactly. If Ryanair are looking at such a sharp downturn in profit over the next 1-2 years then imagine the impact on smaller airlines who don't have RYR's low cost base and cash reserves. Ryanair will most likely survive the worst of recessions, others may well not. It all points to experienced and jet/TP rated pilots "competing" with 200hr guys for the few airlines positions that would be on offer. It's only a possibility, but it is looking more and more likely.

[chris-squire]

I take the above point regarding people not caring about RYR's depn policy. You're right they don't. But investors do and I think you'll find they're the ones that drive the economy up or down and indeed the reason we are even having this discussion so that's why I brought it up. Look forget about depn for a minute, my intention was to convey that selling 5 aircraft doesn't mean that RYR are worried about the future as has been mentioned on PPRUNE earlier and has subsequently spilled over into this thread aswell.

We all have our opinions about what's going on but I don't think it's as bad as made out to be by some. You only have to watch the news and you would think the end of the world is coming! The economy bounces back, always has and always will. ******* yanks have knackered us in the end but the rediculous ex Chancellor has screwed us for a long time to come with spirraling debt, tax and interest rates. Not the place for politics but thank you very much to the current government for the situation that we are now in. Im sure that will annoy someone and but thats my opinion and I'll be shot down in the next 30 mins or so but hey ho.

CS :ok:

[Nichibei Aviation]

Many of you seem to associate the post-9/11 aviation crisis to the 9/11 recession while they don't have alot in common.

The post 9/11 aviation crisis was based on fear for further attacks, which led people to cancel their flights for security's sake.

Just because the media and the economists are talking about a recession, thatdoesn't mean we're going to start paying a bottle of water at 5 bucks a piece.
Typical panic reactions are:


I personally have put an hold on my flight training for the next 12 months or so, this is definately not the time to start, hold on a little while see how it develops.


:ugh:

We are at the edge of recessions and we're at the edge of the greatest pilot shortage in history.
Isn't this what we call a buffet boundary limit? ;-)

Just because Ryanair announces a lower than expected Q3 profit figure of a mere 35 million euro, people start putting their flight training on hold :ugh:...

In this recession, prices of everything will drop including those of fuel.
Some members on this forum have good reasons to make people believe that it will be hard to find a cockpit job in the future: such reasons could be to reduce competition for their own "hirability".

Now let me tell you one thing wannabe economists: In Holland they held a competition between dolphins and the best economy analysts of the country on 2007 investment prognoses.
Guess what: the dolphins' prognose would have earned investors 30% gains while the economic analysts' prognoses resulted in 10% losses.

http://www.nieuws.nl/492464

So don't let the media or analysts tell you what's going to happen.
Do some research on your own.

Are house prices really dropping?
Or are you believing that they are dropping?
Is a bottle of milk more expensive now?
Do take indexation into account ;-)

What if the media says that tomorrow the earth will disappear? Are you going to buy that?

[Bearing 123]

Howe many times has it been said on this forum......
There is only a shortage of experienced pilots!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and if things keep going the way that the general opinion of this thread says it will, there will be plenty of them around.

[mustflywillfly]

Now let me tell you one thing wannabe economists: In Holland they held a competition between dolphins and the best economy analysts of the country on 2007 investment prognoses.
Guess what: the dolphins' prognose would have earned investors 30% gains while the economic analysts' prognoses resulted in 10% losses.

http://www.nieuws.nl/492464


It's all Dutch to me Guvnor.


On a more serious note. Wannabe Economist = Possible Realist.

Eyes wide open. It's better that way, or are you a strictly lights off kind of person? :}

[Nichibei Aviation]

Howe many times has it been said on this forum......
There is only a shortage of experienced pilots!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Yes.
There is a big shortage of experienced pilots.
Do you know why?
The industry is expanding faster than the airlines can train F/O's with enough experience to become captains. Training a captain is not like training a new F/O, it takes more time and resources.

and YES, there is a shortage of new pilots as well. The only problem is that new pilots are misinformed and mislead by their FTO's and think they can get a job the day they graduate with 200 hours. That may very well be so in desperate environments like India and China right now, but is not the case in Europe and USA.
Don't dream, with 200 hours (130 single prop + 70 sim) you have to be really lucky and the airline really desperate to give you a job.
The average time required for ab-initio is 500 hours in Europe.
That's why many don't even get replies to their job applications and start thinking it's the industry... :rolleyes:

It's not like your FTO where you are about to contract a 90 000€ loan over 12 years is going to tell you that you'll need to spend more money flying an additional 300 hours on average after your training to be elligible for a F/O position.

(Side note: What do you think an FTO with a USA flying program charging 90 000€ is earning on every student?
10%? 20%?
No, I can assure you it's more than 50%, just do the math yourself and you will realise.
You say that the quality of the training is good? I hope it is, for the price you pay... It's not by luck that they get to add a 10 million dollar simulator every year....)


As I mentionned on the other page, over the next 5 years there is a need for 5000 new pilots in each of India and China already and similar but slightly lower numbers are expected for Europe, Middle East and USA, this, without taking account of the VLJ revolution.

All what matters is to have a captain and an F/O in a cockpit.
There are plenty of 3000+ hours on type experienced F/O's in the world waiting for a captain upgrade, and almost as many new pilots looking for their first job.

[PosClimb]

As I mentionned on the other page, over the next 5 years there is a need for 5000 new pilots in each of India and China already and similar but slightly lower numbers are expected for Europe, Middle East and USA, this, without taking account of the VLJ revolution.
Do you own a flying school?

Edit: I think you do...
http://ncb-aviation.com/ (http://ncb-aviation.com/)

Quel surprise....

[A and C]

Not often that I agree with Nichibie but I do think that he has a point.

What I do see happening is airline bosses stopping recruting as a panic reaction only to find themselfs with an even bigger pilot shortage and after a short time panic recruting taking place.

No doubt Nichibie's thinking is influenced by his flying school ownership however the requirment for pilots will continue to grow and he makes this point well.

[Bearing 123]

Nichibei,

Hmmmmmmmm! I really admire your optimism and wouldn't it be nice for the newbies if what you're saying is true?

But, you're effectively saying and I agree that the FTO's just want to take a newbie's money and not inform them about the reality of the situation as well as making a huge profit into the bargain.

But if the website that was flagged up here as a training establishment is indeed your company, then I for one would have to say that your words are bordering on being extremely hypocritical. There are in my opinion too many FTO's (possibly like your self) who are fuelling this pilot shortage rumour for their own gain. Pulling the unsuspecting wannabe in, taking their holy grail pot of money and chucking them out the other end into a non existent market for a 200hr FATPL.

Not a nice way to do business I'm afraid.:=

[Nichibei Aviation]

Well the company's not mine so I don't really have personal interests, and I could have signed up as "student" to hide the fact that I'm a NCB employee, but I didn't.

If you don't believe me all you need to do is google "pilot shortage" and you'll realise what's happening. Sources range from the less reliable to the most reliable.

But there's a way to prove what I'm telling you:
In December the Portuguese senate wanted to vote the 65 retirement age extension, pilots went on strike.
In January the US senate voted about the same thing.

All I'm saying is that too many students are not realistic and let themselves get caught by the "big dream". What they forget to do is to analyse before they start and complain afterwards.
I highly criticise FTO's who do not inform their students appropriately.
But I also do criticise irresponsible students who blaim it to the market instead of admitting their mistakes and blaming their FTO.
How many students have had the courage to send a letter to their FTO telling them that they can't find a job?

There's a market of around 3000 to 4000 pilots over the next 5 years in Europe, but unfortunately only 10 to 20% of that market will be open to 200 hours pilots.
If I were an airline I wouldn't put a 200 hour + TR + line training pilot on the right seat of a 50 million $ 737. It's not only about the airplane but about the entire airline's reputation.

[Bearing 123]

Nichibel,

Well done for clearing that up.

All good facts and finally the point you are trying to make is getting across. For Wannabee's, the best advice I think is to not get to wrapped up in the dream and to review everything, research everything and ask as many people in the know as is humanly possibly. Then if you're still really passionate about it Go For It!

Its a great career, I love going to work and still after a few years as a jet pilot, I still have to pinch myself. The bottom line is....
Follow your dream but be realistic Good Luck:ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

India and china and all the rest will see lots of new pilot jobs I agree. That is of no use to most wannabes here. What we see today in new data is London house prices down 6.4% quarter on quarter and sales volumes down over a third - crash territory. The USA is IN recession.

You have MOL on TV telling you in plain language that he expects recession in 08/09. By this time next year it is going to be really horrid being a wannabe.

Sorry to say.

WWW

[Caudillo]

I'm not so sure.

It's in the nature of people to be ego-centric and to have short term memories and outlooks. Hence you get anecdotal evidence of global warming.

ie. -15 years ago it snowed in winter, now it doesn't.
- It's caused by chelsea tractors and set-top boxes

Meaningful measures of climate cover geological eras, yet we persist in extraoplating from minute, human-scale time periods.

Same with economics. We tend to think in the immediate and emphasise what's important to us. So a bit of talk and data produce the same sort of screaming reaction for which journalists are traduced when they write "jet seconds from disaster". Of course it depends on what you consider a recession to be - but given the rather bleak scenarios I've read in this thread, let's assume it's fairly nasty rather than a slowdown or a slight dip - to extrapolate a big recession from any of the data in this thread is as valid as making climate observations based on 15 years of watching the weather.

Recessions are not permanent. A slowing of growth (imho) is inevitable - perhaps underway right now - but recovery and improvement is also inevitable. Do you train to be a pilot now or when you have the recovery? I buy stock when it's low and sell high, so with training the goal is to position yourself for when you qualify.

[108.9]

So if MOL's prediction of a downturn in 08/09 is correct then starting your training late this year is the perfect time?! :hmm:

[JB007]

...so with training the goal is to position yourself for when you qualify.

Thank you.

It is what it is, and you adjust...

These threads have been doing the rounds since the new year began and for those wanting a career as a pro pilot and cabable of reading through the doom and gloom speculation: Plan it very very carefully, the above quote say's it all, I would be cautious of throwing alot of money at an integrated course right now, consider the modular route, a "chunk" at a time. Be VERY aware of your position in the market place at all times i.e. Your job potential with <200 hours and a fATPL. Be aware of what the industry is doing, I was shocked during my CPL/IR when I met chaps who didn't know what a Turbo-Prop was or what a B737 looked like. This will help you to judge what the above quote is saying!

My company and the other large Charter operator in the UK (TCA) have both announced that any speculation of an economic downturn has not affected bookings for summer 2008; both are above forecast. Although my company has some major changes yet to come that may affect pilot numbers! Still a good time to be an experienced pilot, I would suspect CTC will continue to fill the gaps...

I trained modular throughout the aftermath of 9/11, finishing my exams in August 2001!!!! September 2001 changed everything, including having to take my shoes off before getting into my seat! I went back to work, did my CPL, went back to work, did my IR...got my first job on a turbo-prop 5 months after my IR test, never paid for a renewal because timing was everything! Now B757/B767...

[ReallyAnnoyed]

I believe the Americans define a recession as two consecutive quarters of "negative growth". However, one can only really tell whether you are/were in one 6 months plus data processing time after the recession started, so as the wise, patient men say: Time will tell :)

However, it does not really help you to know what sold last year, you need to know what sells next year, if you are to be a good business man. In a downturn, airlines will still hire a number of pilots although a number smaller than in booming times and were I to start out again, I would not hesitate to sign up for CTC or another organisation with a proven track record.

In any respect, pilot training will always bear an element of risk in it and the risk is on the rise right now, but a dream is a dream and should be chased according to my life philosophy. Good luck :)

[Flying Squid]

Only the Americans could come up with a contradicting definition "Negative Growth".

As said above, there will always be an inhereant amount of risk in borrowing and spending 50k upwards on flight training. I cant think of one single thing other than this that requires so much money with absolutely no gurantee's at the end.

But there will always be a reason why something can't be done and economies always bounce back so the long term will be fine. It may be rough for newbie's like myself for a while but nothing this good comes easy so as long as you plan to get yourself through the really **** times of no money, no job and lapsing ratings then you'll be fine.

I'm just about to start my training and have planned for a hard time ahead with little or no job prospects and little hope of any improvement on the situation for a few years. If I get a job in the mean time then great but I'm not banking on it. All doom and gloom? Well I probably sound bloody miserable but just being cautious with the whole thing but none of my fears come close to stopping me from cracking on with it.

Flying Squid :ok:

[lc_aerobatics]

Hi,

Looking at econimic downturn maybe someone can give me advise.
I’m doing all my training on the continent paying for that in Euros, recent massive fall of GBP cost me a lot of money. :{

Are there any economists on the group ? Maybe somone has some sensible forecast for EUR/STG exchange ? :ugh:

Thank you !
LC

[Nichibei Aviation]

Maybe somone has some sensible forecast for EUR/STG exchange


We are also affected by this as we accept GBP/EUR payments and pay our bills in USD.

The big problem is that the UK is panicked by the U.S. recession, but mainland Europe isn't. Transactions are happening as usually, real estate prices are stabilising but still increasing.

The EUR will certainly go over the 1.50 USD barrier soon when the US enters recession and start selling its currency for a more stable currency.

Bush doesn't give a sh*t about his government anymore as he's leaving office end of the year.
Obama or Hillary (we'll know soon ;-) ) will relaunch the economy by a politic of trust and by ending the war.

All I can tell you is that when the economy worsens in the US over the next few months, the UK economy will tend to worsen aswell, the GBP will probably drop even more against the EUR.

Exchange at least 10 000GBP on every occasion, that will earn you a very good rate. Don't go to exchange banks, go to your own bank.

Do not catch me wrong though, a recession in the UK does not mean it is going to widely affect air travel or travel in general.
Actually the airline that can earn the most money from a recession in the UK is FR... people will tend to go for cheap hotels and cheap airline tickets. Not a surprise Mol's talking about a "big dowturn", he just wants to give the recession a push forward.

[Grass strip basher]

Nichibei have you seen property prices in markets like Spain and Ireland... still increasing??.... which planet are you living on??

As for asking for FX advice on Pprune... I would suggest that would be a rather foolish thing to do... a lot of "armchair experts" on here... would be similar to going and asking the bloke down the pub what to do with you hard earned pennies!

[G-SPOTs Lost]

JB - Spot On!

My UK IR 170A - September 10th 2001 :{

Went into Hedgehog Mode, got a proper job - instructed part time, learnt some very good jokes to tell in the cruise when I was PA'ing on my days off.

Things got better gardually - now P1 on a chunky bizjet

Forget integrated training, if you do not have a job within 6 months of graduating then modular/integrated does not matter.

All this 80k-100K bull needs to stop right now - go modular, speak to your boss explain that you may wish to have some unpaid leave in 2009, do it in chunks. Do the majority of the training in the US - cheeeeeeeap$ get FAA licenses as well, get as much license for your £££'s as possible.

Come back more rounded, more hours, more interesting to spend time with, more able to adapt to the Kingair Job you will probably get rather than programmed to the non existent airbus job you are longing after (and pissing off your kingair boss by telling him how much 737 FNPTII time you have). The days of living the 737 dream are slipping away, tell Oxford to shove it and paddle your own canoe and save yourself 50K.

Think less about the goal being getting the fATPL and consider the goal to be getting a job - any job, I've said it before but when the music stops make sure you have a seat!

best of luck - and to the accountant who borrowed the money and its too late to pay it back, - pay it back and go modular and keep your proper job. I know its dead easy to say that from FL410 but imagine one of your clients proposing to do what you are doing on a loan of 80k with a doubtful outcome - what would you advise?????

[Bearing 123]

G-Spot,

Finally someone talking sense and getting it in a nutshell.
Get a seat, any seat and weather the storm. It's a dream job yes but way too many people living in a dream world. :ok:

[MIKECR]

All this doom and gloom from MOL yet ironically he advertised in flightglobal only yesterday desperate for FO's! Looking for 400 new starts this year according to Ryanair website. Doesnt look like a down turn to me.

[Nichibei Aviation]

Nichibei have you seen property prices in markets like Spain and Ireland... still increasing??.... which planet are you living on??



Have you been on the spot for years or have you just "read it on the media"?

I can tell you for sure that this is not the case in France, Germany, Benelux and Italy.

As about FX, it is very simple, FX is unpredictable, not to economists, not to anyone, otherwise it wouldn't be going up and down all the time.
It's not like shares, those are predictable. No, there are too many factors in FX for a human being to handle and sort out on a human time scale.

If FX were predictable all Americans would have bought EUR currency 6 years ago and traded them for dollars now, a 70% investment.

[Grass strip basher]

Nichibei share price movements are "predictable" well you must be Warren Buffet then... I bow to your superior knowledge.... :ugh:

Yes I rely 100% on the press... I believe everything they tell me.... I am incapable of independent thought.... but despite all that I can still tell that you are no more reliable than picking up the Daily Mail so maybe I am not a complete lost cause ;)

(Oh if share prices are predictable clearly BA's share price halving in the past 12 months, Iberia share price halving, Ryanair's share price halving, Air France/KLM's share price more than halving.... outlook must be rosey for pilot recruitment because the management that run these companies won't care about that... oh but Easyjet is only down 40%... must mean the future is bright... the future is orange :E)

[clear prop!!!]

Boy….Talk about gloom and doom!!

What happened to the good old WWW of 2000? You know,..the instructor who posted positive contributions and helped us through what were VERY difficult times then, as he used his initiative, detemination and worked his way to EZY.

No, it’s not going to be easy for low hr pilots….It NEVER was!

£60 -£80k does not guarantee a job, never has done, never will!

As ever it’s those who show a little initiative and make it their business to at least appear employable that will win through in a recession (if it happens), or not.

With words of encouagement and avice from moderators like ‘ it is going to be really horrid being a wannabe’, And ‘The party is over. Those with £80k of debt, 200hrs and a lovely stack of CV's have my sympathy.’ Perhaps there is no hope and its time to give up, close the forum, and change it to 'Wannabe Economists’…..we seem to have enough of them!

BTW There are, and always will be jobs out there just don't expect them to land at your feet!

[ap9dm1]

There are too many variables in economics and financial services to come to a simpe conclusion ... those that beat on about "doom and gloom" are pessimists, and those that ignore the indicators with rose tinted glasses are optimists.

For what it's worth, there may well be a downturn in the financial markets, but reading the impact on the aviation business is far too difficult. You know, it could even be beneficial (e.g. encouraging growth in low cost travel). The reliance on the US as the engine of global growth is somewhat alleviated with China and (to a lesser extent) India surging on. EU and UK markets are stable, interest rates are low (and likely to get lower), employment levels are high. Outrageous housing values are dropping (moderately, which they NEED to), but equity levels remain high - this points more to readjustment rather than recession to me. Perhaps we are all missing the point - it is inevitable that markets will cycle, but I would argue we are in a better position now more so than ever to manage it and ride it out. The real worry is inflation ... but even that's not out of hand ... yet!

Bear in mind, those that think it's bad - I remember the days of >10% unemployment, >10% interest rates, high inflation. But still the profession and business survived, we all did.

Too much negativity is a bad thing. It's always a gamble getting into the aviation game. But believe it or not, you can make your own good luck.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I find the world to have no shortage of people in it encouragin wannabes to spend vast sums of money on training. I have been responsible for encouraging many on just how to do so for many years. However, unlike most, I don't actually make my living out of this industry (not since 2000). This allows me the luxury of being the dissenting voice if I so choose.

I didn't imagine a house price crash in the US and recession. I'm not being tricked when I check www.propertysnake.co.uk and see real house in my street dropping in price in the UK. My eyes do not deceive me when I gaze upon abandoned building sites in Southern Spain nor read the horror stories unfolding in the Dublin housing market. My ears did not misshear Michael O Leary's unequivocal prediction of European recession.

The halving of most airlines and holiday companies share prices in the last year persuades me that the City and the Analysts believe profits are at high risk. My reading of the broader economic cycle suggests a recession 18yrs after the last one fits a pattern. My understanding of what a credit crunch means to an economy based on credit leads me to believe we have only seen the early tremours of a quake yet to hit.

For a Wannabe in the US/UK/Eurozone who aspires to an airline job in the near future all this leads to a very gloomy conclusion. I can't help that. What I can do is try just a little to make sure people making large life decisions do so at least with some balance of opinion in the process.

It only takes one of the household airlines to go under and you have hundreds of pilots out of work. That several years supply of Wannabes. So its perhaps most sensible NOT to put yourself in a position where you owe lots of money. As I have said before over many years going Integrated DOES make sense in certain conditions. The most important of which is a frantic hiring market with Chief Pilots on the phone to Integrated schools on a weekl basis as the business plan expands yet again.

I think I can say with a high degree of confidence that the frantic hiring market is gone. So a major condition in favour of high debt, high intensity, training has also gone.

Whether we are staring into the abyss of a full blown UK/US/Eurozone recession is a more contentious issue. I think we are. I'm more than happy to be proved wrong and hope I will be. So I'm all for reading posts by optimists.

Right, back to the pool, :D


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article3321789.ece

And as I pick up my copy of The Times by the pool I see Anatole is coming rapidly around to my view - and he's one of the most optimistic economic commentators around..

Britain needs a big interest rate cut today to counter the possible disasters ahead Anatole Kaletsky

The British economy is in big trouble. I say this as someone who has stuck his neck out since the mid-1990s in arguing that the British model was basically sound and..


Protect yourself - keep your debt low.


WWW

[Nichibei Aviation]

Dear moderator,

I hope that the schools that are paying the expensive advertisements on this website don't get to read you, I'm not sure about them being happy about what you're writing there.

[speedrestriction]

MIKECR,

Don't be fooled; how many of these FOs do you thinks will be on permanent, full-time contracts?

sr

[BitMoreRightRudder]

Nichibei

Just because he's a moderator doesn't mean he has a vested interest in this site, or the financial wellbeing of those companies who choose to advertise here. That's what makes pprune so useful, in particular the wannabes section. You get accurate and honest advice from professionals who know what they are talking about, for free. It's the only place I know that offers this.

He's giving a totally objective point of view - can you honestly say that you are being just as objective with yours?

In other news easyJet have updated their careers webpage informing applicants that there will be no more openings for Type Ratings until late 2008. In easyJet speak that most likely means this time next year. So, it's february and one of the biggest airlines and biggest recruiters of pilots' in recent years has finished hiring for the year. Make of it what you will.

[JB007]

...and be aware of potential reductions within the TUI Travel empire...reasearch more than ever is required before commencing training!

Refer to post #40 of this thread and the quote;...so with training the goal is to position yourself for when you qualify.

I have no doubt that the experienced pilots will be fine, it's those with <200 hours, fATPL and nothing in the logbook but single pilot training that will struggle, I would hazzard a guess until 2010/11!

[MIKECR]

Speedstriction,

Im not being fooled. I was merely pointing out that Ryanair desperately require at least 450 new pilots this year to cope with their plans. The type of contract or who they are employed by is irellevant.

[dartagnan]

I agree with JB007 and WWW.

I got an email from an asian company telling me, until end 2008, they are full of 3000h pilots(for an A320 position).
Got an email from DHL telling me they got lot of applicants and they wish me good luck.
Then Rishworth telling us, they have received lot of emails for a job in Asia.

Then I 've applied in person in 3-4 different companies,gave my CV, they didn't show any interest, and still no answer.

so do yourself a favor, don't borrow money if you can not afford it!
(and forget these line trainings where you have to pay, these line trainings show us how bad the situation is).

if Alitalia go bust, you can say bye bye to your career!

[propogandhi]

Hello All. I've just passed all but one of my subjects on the OAT skills assessment two-day training. I'll go back in 3 months and re-sit that one part. If I pass I'm accepted onto the OAT ATPL 18 month course

Now ready through this thread and other sources my plan, if I pass would be this: Give myself a year to a) raise/save funds, b) secure loan from HSBC and most importantly C) let the winds of the current global financial storm settle and see how my prospects look. If the main forecast is correct 2008/2009 will be full of economically hard time affecting most if not all aspects of business in a negative way. But by late 2009/ going into 2010 thing should begin to look good again, and by this time (having started my training in spring 2009) I should have timed it right and will be able to enter an industry with greater employment opportunities for a recent ATPL graduate.

Please, I no expert, but how does that sound. What are my faults with this plan, any comments welcome.

Propogandhi.

[shaun ryder]

When things get tough its the contract pilots who get the chop first, then its last in first out for the ones on permanent contracts. Have a think about why some airlines employ contract pilots, then you might understand the relevance of it all.

[Nichibei Aviation]

What's your total time Dartagnan?

If you have more than 500 hours, I can give you so many airlines that are hiring: SN, AF, FR, VLM, Swiss, Vueling, Clickair, etc...


I should have timed it right and will be able to enter an industry with greater employment opportunities for a recent ATPL graduate.


The sooner you start, the better.
Go modular, don't go to integrated!
For the same price as OAT you can get CPL IR ME and 500 hours total time.
At OAT you get 200 hours of which 50 are on simulators....
What will make you so special compared to othe candidates?

If taking a loan is necessary to finance your training, you're not on the right path and should rethink your strategy. I know plenty of guys working as cab drivers or mailmen to finance their training and the level of satisfaction when they get hired is high+they don't have a 700£ monthly loan repayment runnning over 10 years+have the freedom of taking a loan if required to pay the TR by their airline.

The market outlook is great, pilot is a job for life: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/02/07/221383/airbus-forecasts-demand-for-24300-new-aircraft-by-2026.html

[Grass strip basher]

Nichiebi I am starting to think you are either very stupid or a wind-up merchant.... if there are sooo many jobs out there why would it matter if you went modular or integrated?.... you would be snapped up the second you left school.... or are you now saying that maybe you won't get a job straight out of flight training??.... but that would mean that WWW and others who dare suggest that the next 2-3 years might be quite tough for pilot recruitment might be right... and you have spent the last couple of weeks arguing they are totally wrong!?!?.

You acuse people of listening too much to the press but then you quote straight from management (do they always tell the truth??) and the press to support your case??

So what is it... are you a wind up merchant.... stupid... or are you sure you were 100% honest when you said you didn't work for a flight school?? You are certainly a "unique" individual.

[Nichibei Aviation]

Read my previous posts the answer is there, ie, no airline hires a 200 hour pilot unless it is desperate.
Airlines in Europe require an average of 500 hours total time.


As to your insults, you may keep them for yourself. :cool:

There are not many flight school employees wandering around on Pprune and it is because they don't take the time to answer to people like you.
So don't take advantage of my willingness to share information (within my field of expertise) to start throwing critics just to make yourself feel smarter or whatever emotions you are experiencing now.

We're not big money takers like traditional big aviation schools, but closer to volunteers, a quick look to our rates will tell you that we're the cheapest of the world.

And I'm going to disclose you a little secret because it's going to be on the website soon anyway:

We're looking to select Indian students with skills, no matter what social class they belong to, to give them the opportunity to have a good training for only around 30 000€ with Indian CPL, which will be on a loan that they'll start paying once hired.
That is in line with our philosophy that pilots should be selected on their skills and capabilities and not on their financial capacities.

If you are frustrated about high training costs and expensive advetising, go and throw critics to your local FTO.

I'm happy to help, because I can learn something from doing so.

There are alot of hypocrits in this world, but respect those that are not.

[dartagnan]

Nichibei,

come down to earth and listen the big guys like WWW...If you don't have a strong experience on an eavy jet, there is very few chance to get a job.

these companies you mention, don't hire guys with 200 hours, not even with 500h, or not even with 6000h. they want EAVY JET experience like 2000-3000 hours of bus/boeing and preferably captains.

you make me laugh with your Cessna 152 integrated/modular flight club and you story about pilots shortage!!!.

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Propaghandi.....

Heres a thought - go do a PPL see if you like flying :ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

No no no. Much better to focus on getting 'in' to Oxfords prestigious course.

Sometimes you do feel like you are banging your head!

WWW

[propogandhi]

trust me I do like flying that is never in doubt, but how does my plan stand up?

[ReallyAnnoyed]

Well, I was doubtful about Nichibei when he tried to play an expert on Scandinavian issues shortly after he opened his profile. It is always peculiar to be lectured by home issues by someone who has probably not even sat foot here. This thread has shown his true colours, though, and is little more than an advocate of the business he is an employee in i.e. flight training and anyone seeking advice should keep that in mind when reading his biased advice.

You can ask a the car dealer about the used car you are buying, but that certainly does not disclose the faults. The short Welshman seems to be a better source of unbiased advice, although he sees a bleaker picture than I do :)

[MIKECR]

Shaun,

Your not understanding my post. Im simply saying that Ryanair require at least 400 - 500 new pilots this year, they are desperate. What contract they are on is irrevelant. Im trying to get across the point that the lo'co's are rubbing their hands at present should a recession hit. Of course it will be the contract people who go first, thats the whole bloomin reason MOL employs contract people in the first place. Easy come, easy go! The fact is that many airlines and operators will probably pull the pennies should the recession take hold, many others however will profit from the misfortune.

[dartagnan]

they are desperate

I love this word (desperate), it seems you don't know really what desperate means?
when an airline receive hundred, thousand of CV every month, is the airline desperate?
they are not, because WE (pilots) are desperate to enter in the Ryanair club, and this is why Ryanair charge pilots 50 quids to send your desperate little CV.

[MIKECR]

dartagnan,

Ryanair are looking to recruit 400 to 500 pilots this year. If you tick all the boxes and have everyhting current then you will undoubtdely be called for interview if you apply. I filled in the online application overnight and had 3 phonecalls next morning either asking me to go to an open day or go for interview/assesment. If you want to line their pockets and pay £500 for interview/assesment and then 25k for TR and job then be my guest. My cv isnt that 'desperate' im afraid. If you have applied to Ryanair and havent heard anything from them then i would suggest YOU will be the one who learns the meaning of the word 'desperate'. If you cant get an interview with them then your situation really is dire straits!

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Propagandi

Your plan I understand is this

Give myself a year to a) raise/save funds, b) secure loan from HSBC and most importantly C) let the winds of the current global financial storm settle and see how my prospects look. If the main forecast is correct 2008/2009 will be full of economically hard time affecting most if not all aspects of business in a negative way. But by late 2009/ going into 2010 thing should begin to look good again, and by this time (having started my training in spring 2009) I should have timed it right and will be able to enter an industry with greater employment opportunities for a recent ATPL graduate

If you are asking me what is wrong with this plan then the answer I'm afraid its pretty much all of it.

You dont mention your age, that is probably the most critical thing to affect the process of you getting a license. To be honest you could probably get a PPL and the ATPL's done for maybe 10k pay that back over 3 years at £300 a month whilst having a proper job. In three years time pop your head above the parapet and have a look see, if things are improving you are ideally placed to jack in work borrow another 15-20k and do the CPL/IR and be ready in 6 months for all the new 737 jobs that will be miraculously appearing.

The PPL will probably take 12-18months involve either two winters or two summers, the JAR Exams probably another 9-12 months with distance learning. If you choose the right school you will be just as good as skilled as anybody else in your experience bracket

The alternative is to have HSBC chasing you for 3-4 Years and be struggling to keep current, keep the powder dry and expose yourself to Aviation in a way that minimises your exposure.

May I also suggest that you give your shoes a polish bob down to your airport and find some corporate or GA machine and ask if you can hitch a ride somewhere, you will probably get told to bugger off - you might get lucky. This shows bigger cahunas than begging 80k off HSBC and galantly putting up your parents home as security.

After 2001 the job market was truly terrible for around 5 years, listen to the people who were around then and learn from the mistakes that were made, just dont forget to be empathic about the 80k oxford "Graduates" who will be cleaning your car windscreen at the traffic lights because they are bankrupt or involved in an IVA

[MIKECR]

G-SPOT,

Well said!

[Nichibei Aviation]

these companies you mention, don't hire guys with 200 hours, not even with 500h, or not even with 6000h. they want EAVY JET experience


you don't have a strong experience on an eavy jet,

To my knowledge, they don't hire guys who don't start sentences with capital letters, and spell "HEAVY" as "EAVY".
Dartagnan I guess you're French, so visit www.devenirpiloteairfrance.com (http://www.devenirpiloteairfrance.com)
English is the worst obstacle when applying to Air France, not experience anymore.


and is little more than an advocate of the business he is an employee in i.e. flight training and anyone seeking advice should keep that in mind when reading his biased advice


The big irony of this is that I'm not selling JAA courses :ugh:

In the end, you believe what you think is best for you to believe.
With or without you, the airline industry will move forward and so will I.

Wait till EK starts getting their 150+ aircraft and watch European airlines loosing over 2000 crew members to them, and wait till FR starts flying longhaul. ;)

Here's an interesting graph to see: http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/2005%20Aircrew%20Age%20%20Sex%20Profile%20(Med%20Cert%20Hold ers%20Only)p2.pdf

[shaun ryder]

Haha! Good post MikeCR, very near the truth for me. In desperation whilst a wannabee I applied to the dreaded blue and whites for a job. I must have been rubbish because they never even acknowledged the application! I now grace the skies flying for an old school British airline!!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Yeah, its the hero worship that makes me love this job..

I'm no economist but I do read it. As I say dissenting views are always welcome. I am more convinced today than yesterday that the I'm faces recession. The figures out today for far east investment and US employment are firmly in crash territory.

This debate is a very important one for wannabes - how many times have we heard that timing is evertything..

WWW

[redED]

Ryanair will always recruit new pilots, as long as you pay them the thousands they want for the honour!

[MarcoFF]

Great guys, interesting thread.:D

Recession is a very good time to invest.

[apachelongbow]

What about the 100sands of Indian wannabe pilots rushing to US, Malayasia, Phillipines and where ever? Most of these folks are 18-20 yr old, not completed their basic education yet. If they now finish their course and come back say in late 2008 early 2009, get a CPL with 200 hrs, and the recession is in full swing.

For theory's sake lets assume the world comes out of this recession by say 2009 mid-early 2010. Then if aviation jobs increase, the world already has about 7000 almost fresh CPL holders, each holding 200 + hours. So where are the jobs for those who want to now 'invest' during the recession?

For the information of all. Currently (as of March 08) there are about 7000 Indian wannabe pilots studying in various schools across the world. Before the recession hits us all, may be 3000 more such folks would have started their studies. If we say 50% of these do get their CPL licences at all, we are still seeing about 5000 new pilots waiting for jobs in 2009-2010

[Persephone]

So in essense you guys feel that the supply is far greater than the demand for F/O's right now fresh from an FTO?

:sad:

Even fresh from an FTO with min hours surely there are other options rather than trying to get into an airline? i.e. flight instructor?

[Gbird]

I was under the impression from the plethora of other links on PPrune that this was perhaps one of the better times to be entering the industry for a newbie.

Expaning airlines, global pilot shortages etc. Its all i've read and heard about for the last 12 months.

Perhaps the state of the economy is a material consideration here in the UK and the States, but possibly not such an issue in countries such as Australia, Asia etc.....

[Grass strip basher]

Yeah but do you qualify from a residency basis for the jobs in Asia/Australia??

[Gbird]

Yeah but do you qualify from a residency basis for the jobs in Asia/Australia??


Personally yes... luckily I have a dual passport and am also conscious of how fortunate I am because of this.

However I was mentioning it simply to say that the state of play globally isn't all immediate doom and gloom, and if people have the opporuntity to study and work o'seas then maybe its a good option if it looks like the UK and the US have tough times ahead.

[SV3NN0]

I'm training in New Zealand and the guys qualifying ahead of me as C-cat instructors are getting jobs immediately at the school as the more experienced instructors are being snapped up by airlines or going to Australia. Things are looking good really but I'm still glad my student loan is interest free!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Earth to Wannabes - come in Wannabes...


I don't quite know where to start with just this afternoons crop of misery. Lets try this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/03/bcnitaly103.xml

Alitalia on brink of bankruptcy as Air France-KLM talks collapse

Do you have ANY idea of how many highly experienced pilots this airline could potentially release onto the open market in the coming weeks?!



Or

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7328191.stm

BAE confirms it will cut 600 jobs. Defence company BAE has confirmed it will cut almost 600 jobs at its Brough site, near Hull and its Woodford plant near Manchester.

Watch out - there's unemployment about..


Or


http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3673935.ece


Bank of England warns mortgage famine to worsen

Hell's Teeth - there goes the housing market..


Or


http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/03/news/companies/ata_bankruptcy/index.htm

ATA Airlines files for bankruptcy.The airline, founded in 1973, served major business centers - including Chicago, Dallas and Oakland - and popular vacation spots throughout the United States, including Hawaii, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. The airline also operated as a leading carrier for the U.S. military.

It operated 29 aircraft, including Boeing 737-800s, Boeing 757-200s, Boeing 757-300s, DC10s and Lockheed L-1011s.

At the time of its shutdown, ATA employed approximately 2,230 people, including approximately 600 pilots


So. We have housing market meltdown, airline starting to go bust in the US and the EU and job losses starting to emerge in the UK.

THIS IS NOT A MINOR SLOWDOWN. There is a financial hurricane on the weather radar for all airlines and EU and US ones in particular. Not all are going to be flying once it has passed. It will be deeply unpleasant for Wannabes.

You have been warned.


WWW

[HappyFran]

Thanks for that WWW.

Just what I need in week before first block of ATPL theory exams :{:{:{

Are you sure you are not Scots....sure remind me of a Scots bloke that was in Dad's Army :):O:)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Don't get me wrong. Like a great many people I have benefited from the economic growth and house price inflation of the last ten years. I know that nobody knows for certain the near future in the world of economics. I have a bullish attitude to life and money. Though this year I am a big grisly bear.

Its 18 years on in the cycle from the last recession. One is due. There is a phoney war at present. Although the sound of gunfire in the form of two thirds of mortgage products being withdrawn since August is just audible to most.

Belts are tightening, costs are rising, taxes are increasing, credit is tightening, houses are falling and airlines WILL be hit. Hard. They always are in every recession.

If you didn't know this then please be advised that it is so. It happens quicker and harder than anyone expects at the time.

Its NOT different this time.

WWW

[Dane-Ger]

I go into this with open eyes and I must admit that this thread does worry me.

but what should wannabes do? just give up? at the age of 33 I can't really afford to sit and wait it out.

what I do know is that The pilots I know have all one thing in common (apart from luck:p) in that they were doggedly determined to get to where they are now, and when I ask them "if someone told YOU whilst training, stop now it's not worth it, would you?" they all say the same thing.

My wish is to be an instructor, If I make that I will be ecstatic. my job is teaching, my love is flying. but instructing jobs will of course will also be affected by any downturn. so maybe part time, maybe I will have to travel far across the world. whatever it takes.

WWW you're posts are very sobering, and give a realistic insight into the immense problems ahead for newly qualified pilots (and I'm sure many experienced ones). but I'm curious, if you were a wannabe just now, would you give it up?

Regards

D-G

Edit - what i forgot to say was that the current uncertainty (and this thread) has made may alter my plans, I decided after the many downturn warnings to go directly from CPL to FI rating, instead of doing an IR first. Time to try and get a foot in the door I think:ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

At your age I would feel guilty about exposing my family to the risks and lifestyle of a career changing pilot. I wouldn't do it.

Life as an instructor is ****. I've done it at volunteer level, PPL level and CPL/IR level. Its **** and poorly paid. You will hate it and I'll stamp over your rose tinted glasses if you don't.

If I were a Wannabe right now then YES I'd stop training . My job prospects would be rubbish and getting worse. I'd do something else. Flying is driving taxis in the air. There is no glamour. There are no riches.

BE very very careful.

WWW

[Philpaz]

I see all the evidence, its there for all to see. Everythings going to hell and all signs point to it getting worse. All my instinct tells me to stop spending my hard earned on training for a career that i may never get a sniff at. Problem is dreams aren't born from common sense......I feel like the idiot looking for the end of the rainbow.
As always WWW offers only sound advice, but i suspect nobody will heed the warnings, I know i wont (at my age its now or never). Only myself to blame though if it all goes wrong, i'll make sure i save enough to buy the Welshman a beer for at least trying to warn us off.:uhoh:

[Dane-Ger]

Thankyou for your honest reply.

Firstly with regards to my family, we have decided to travel no matter what, we have lived abroad before and it is something we enjoy, so at worst six months in Florida will be an experience for them.

secondly, I know the money is crap as an instructor, but I have been lucky with property, we will get by, money is not the driving factor in this decision.

Maybe I will hate it, I doubt it, I teach already and enjoy it enormously, I would rather combine both and fly and teach. And you can't seriously tell me there is no thrill in seeing a student gaining his license or going on a first solo?

and lastly, there is no glamour in being an instructor anyway, I have no intentions of working for an airline, so I guess driving a taxi in the air is the height of my ambitions.

I guess the worst case scenario is we have a six month holiday that costs us 400k. I can live with that, and if all else fails I will always be able to return to teaching maths (fortunately recessions don't affect public schools).

regards (with rose tinted specs intact;))

D-G

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I salute every man who takes the plunge right now. I'll support you.

Those that think instructing at a basic level is rewarding or enough to support a family then you are wrong. Its poorly paid dangerous and monotonous work that destroys your soul. Every other PPL instuctor who wants a flightdeck agrees with me. I don't have to ask..

WWW

[roll_over]

WWW you are doing a great job. Hopefully when I come to apply with airlines in a about 4 years from now there will be a few less people to compete against thanks to you.

If it all goes kaput I will have a good degree to fall back on, but I don't think (hope) I will need it.


I remember seeing a programme a few years back about an imminent house price crash, experts told people to sell up and rent, waiting for the prices to fall massively then cash in, they are still waiting....


Wonder what the mood is like at investment wannabe forums :E

[Dane-Ger]

I would hope the challenge of making a career from instructing, and moving on to advanced instructing / examining would make it more attractive and less monotonous.

but only one way to find out.

btw, your advice IS appreciated, you are right, the most sensible thing would probably just be to stop. unfortunately I can't.

anyway, I have theory exams in 4 days so I'd better get back to studying or the only thing I'll be flying is a computer game!

regards

D-G

[ChriSat]

On a lighter note, its not all doom and gloom

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7327762.stm

The economy is impossible to predict, but yes, i do see the dip continuing into the forthcoming months, possibly into later next year. This is no 1929, more of an early 90's downtrun -- we can't expect continuous growth forever. I'm almost certain its not as bad as the pessimistic's are leading you to belive.

Chris.

[mason]

ohh ****ttt im on the back end of my training and this thread really scares me.
but maybe people could be wrong about this has the dynamics of the world economy not changed with the rise of China and India and this is just shaking the boat.
however im probably out of my debt but
I think it would be a good time for someone to come up with an
innovative way of flying without oil ,Nuclear doubt its possible though,
bio fuels ?solar powered plane test flight this year .

[JB007]

Within my company there is still quite alot of movement going on to pastures new, mainly due to BA's recruitment drive and holiday bookings are apparently higher than this time last year - so far, no-one seems to be giving up the annual holiday! And, like Thomas Cook, I wouldn't be suprised if a few more CTC cadets are taken on next year...

Rumours of the Emirate's payrise, 25%-30%, may generate some massive movement throughout Europe as the Middle East become worth it again!!!????

[Nichibei Aviation]

In March Ryanair has carried 19% more traffic compared to March 2007 with load factor up 1 percent.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

And their shareprice indicates the City expects a 60% fall in profitability.. Oh, and you work for a flying school.


And just because the Chavs are still booking holidays on their credit cards is no reason to believe the economy is rosy.


WWW

[Trevor Macken]

Incorrect WWW, the Chavs are booking holidays on other people's credit cards !!!! :}

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

This is copied from the Rumours And New forum. It illustrates what has happened in the worlds largest pilot market. The US is around 14 months ahead of us in terms of a recession but we beat the in the race to have the first bank collapse...

<snip>


Don't know, but this is probably only the beginning. (related to the past few months, copied from an US forum)


United stopped hiring
Delta stopped hiring
Continental stopped hiring
Northwest stopped hiring
Expressjet stopped hiring
Skywest stopped hiring
ASA stopped hiring
FedEx stopped hiring
UPS has stopped hiring
Expressjet is offering pilots unpaid leave of absences
United is grounding 15-20 737 aircraft
Delta is grounding 10? mainline aircraft
Northwest is grounding 24 DC-9 aircraft
Regional flying has been cut substantially
Comair, Skywest, Expressjet, ASA, Mesa, and others have had their regional contracted flying hours cut
Aloha Airlines filed for bankruptcy (again)
Skybus cut back almost 50% of their routes
Froniter sold 4 aircraft
Jetblue sold 6 aircraft
Big Sky went out of business
Skyway went out of business
Aloha went out of business
Champion Air went out of business

Edit: ATA out of business

<snip>


It will be the same in Europe next year.


WWW

[Trevor Macken]

WWW,

What is the general state of affairs in the Europe at the moment ?
Are carriers hiring, are they going into a similar mode as the US has?

TM

[Nichibei Aviation]

I already told you that share prices of airlines can drop as much as you want, it doesn't affect traffic figures and pilots/aircraft needed.

If less people are willing to invest into airlines, I can understand them, there are way more interesting and lucrative markets out there.

If less people want to invest, it doesn't mean that less people are going to fly.

I can already hear you scream to your wife:
"Oh my god darling, the share prices of BA have dropped 2% today, I'll have to cancel my next week's flight :eek:"

Now remember what I'm teaching you right now, I ain't gonna say it twice:
THE REAL INDICATOR OF PILOT JOBS ARE TRAFFIC FIGURES NOT AN AIRLINE'S SHARES' RISE & FALL.


The U.S. is hit by a bad blast, but it's their own fault.
The UK will also struggle out of compassion.

Mainland Europe is doing well just look at the traffic figures of February:

http://files.aea.be/News/PR/Pr08-012.pdf

The Association of European Airlines has released traffic and capacity data for its members in February 2008.
Overall, traffic, measured in passenger-km, increased by 6.0% and capacity (seat-km) by 8.6%

Note: If you analyse the end of the table, you see that the only figure that show a decrease are load factor figures. A capacity increase of 8.6% means that that many more pilots are needed.


Alitalia is doing bad but it has nothing to do with the US recession, just in case WWW would try to mention it.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I fear Nichiebi that the God of Economics is going to teach you a big lesson. Harshly.

Were you involved with aviation during the early 90's recession? Do you even remember the early 90's recession?

I've just opened todays Times:


British Airways hit by fall in business-class passengers


Virgin may scrap in-flight beauty service


Acacia Avenue could catch Commercial Street chill: Where commercial property goes, so goes housing.

Since June last year the average value of commercial property has fallen by 15 per cent, according to IPD. The actual prices being paid, however, are down by nearer 20 per cent. The property derivatives market is currently pricing in a fall of 18 per cent for the whole of 2008. That would mean prices would have fallen 26 per cent between June last year and the end of December this year.


My analysis is much more pessimistic than that which you find in the mainstream press reports that I refer to here and in other posts. Nevertheless such daily tallies of woe and gloom serve to show that I am not imagining this and I am not alone in my gloomy economic outlook.

European airline failures are just months away. With them will come the redundant pilot. With that the wannabe market closes. Overnight.


WWW

[Trevor Macken]

Over the last 6 years I have made two serious share investments of €30k and €22k through a particular well known loco based in Europe.(HHHmmmm I wonder who that could be!!!).

All told, they were a risk at the time as loosing that type of capital would hurt most people quite badly. Thankfully I have done relatively well on one and made a Gordon Ghecko style killing on the other(greed IS good my friends). I was fortunate enough to be able to read the market over those two specific periods in time. I feel flight training is similar, you are effectively trying to predict 18-24 months ahead of the current cycle.

My point, share prices go up, share prices go down. Its how their increase/decrease is interpreted is the key to the ongoing Pilot recruitment sector.

:cool: :ok: :D :yuk: :zzz: :ouch:

[Nichibei Aviation]

If Alitalia goes bust, 3000 pilots will be released on the market, with some being picked up by Italian airlines like Itali and Air One.

I think that this is a bigger challenge than any "European airline's failure because of dropping real estate prices".
And yet, it may slow down the market for a few months, that still doesn't mean that new students starting today will find themselves looking for a job for ages.

If Virgin Atlantic's beauty service isn't doing well, it doesn't mean that Virgin Atlantic itself is doing bad, though one would certainly expect that seen that a big part of their earnings is in USD.

If BA is not doing well, it's because the UK is hit by the same problems as the U.S. as I've already stated.

Let's inform people adequately.
I and my employer (which seems to be your greatest argument, while you allow camouflaged flight schools to post anything on here) don't gain much by saying that everything is doing fine in Europe.
A slowdown would mean students would look for cheaper training and more flexibility meaning modular and eventually one of our (future) programs.

I think that your argument is not the right one.

Saying that people should choose for cheaper traininig because of a simulated slowdown is not the right approach. We should confront the students to the reality of expensive schools instead, who are giving the same training for twice the price and misleading students with "quality".

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Trust the Evening Standard newspaper to tell it like I think it is:

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23472466-details/House+prices+are+30%25+over-valued+and+need+'correction'+says+IMF+as+Bank+warns+of+mortg age+famine/article.do



House prices 'will crash soon': Bank chiefs warn YOUR home is overvalued by 30 per cent


House prices are 30 per cent too high in the UK and could soon crash, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday.

After a decade-long housing boom, it fears Britain is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to a devastating price collapse.

In a further blow, the Bank of England warned that the mortgage meltdown is going to get even worse.


That's it. Recession guaranteed and with every recession there has ever been airlines go bust or get smaller. The pilot hiring market freezes instantly.

WWW

[Nichibei Aviation]

Banks earn interests on loans
=banks want more people to borrow money
=banks want more people to buy homes
=banks want to force more people to sell their homes for less money
=banks diffuse rumours that people's homes are overpriced on the media

We've seen airlines going bust in the past few weeks because of the recession. Yet, we haven't seen any banks go bust... :rolleyes:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Not sure of your point there given that Northern Rock and Bear Stearns have both gone bust in the last 6 months.


Its by no means a UK only problem. Ireland is in worse shape than us as is Spain:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/04/cnspain104.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

Foreign banks flee Spanish property debt

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Madrid
Last Updated: 1:06am BST 04/04/2008

International banks are scrambling to sell their holdings of Spanish mortgage debt at a steep discount, fearing that the country may be sliding into the worst economic downturn in its modern history.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Although to be fair the US is still showing us the future for Europe and the rest of the West. The IMF (THE IM conservative F!) will next week publish this:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3663457.ece

IMF to cut prospects for US growth by two-thirds
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor

The American economy faces a painful recession that will be deeper than the downturn at the start of this decade and the most severe since the early Nineties, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to predict next week.


Since WWII every US recession has resulted in a UK recession. Every UK recession has resulted in airline collapses. Every airline collapse results in no job for Wannabes.

That's enough joining the dots lessons for one morning I think. :ugh:


WWW

[RB311]

Dear WWW.

Can I ask what is your purpose on this forum, if it is not to try and put off wannabees as much as possible to start a career in aviation?

I do not think I have seen such pessmistic and negative opinions anywhere else.

There will always be a need for airlines, even in times of a downturn, if for no other reason than to fly administrators and liquidators around the world.

RB311

[Mercenary Pilot]

Take WWW's advice on board as he is talking a lot of sense. That's not to say you shouldn't go forward with flight training if you have done the proper research but just be aware of the very possible outcome and make sure you have a back-up plan in place.

Oh, and make sure you take off the rose tinted spectacles. :ugh:

PPPPPP :ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You may well not have heard such cautionary words elsewhere. Whom do you suppose would write them? The CAA? The Flying Schools? The airlines?

This place, this forum, exists as a somewhat unique resource for Wannabe where they may learn and exchange information about their desired career. If the information is that their desires may be thwarted by imminent and unfolding economic recession then whilst this is disheartening, saddening, and woeful, it is ultimately, useful information to have at hand.

I completed my basic training in a previous decade. I stopped being a commercial flying instructor early in this millenium. I am now a Captain in a growing EU airline with a fairly secure career. I have no Vested Interest in talking down the airline jobs market.

I serve only to provide a warning sign. A note of caution. To act as augury in a bid to protect a flock of Wannabes.

You are quite right. There is always a need for airlines. But with no growth there is little requirement for new pilots.. Splurging £80k on a dream right now might put you and your family in a nightmare tomorrow.

Please try to avoid the mistake of shooting the messenger.. ;)


WWW

[RVR800]

All this doom and gloom sells newpapers

Next month they'll be saying house prices due to double in the next year.

I dont believe any of it...

1. High employment
2. Low interest rates
3. Shortage of housing

Although

Shortage of credit but I know someone who easily got a mortgage; that said if your unemployed in Cleveland Ohio you might not get a mortgage anymore..

Is easyjet getting good load figures?

[99jolegg]

An interesting discussion. As someone has mentioned, I think it's important to draw a distinction between who this will affect. If you are half way through your training or are due to finish training in about 6 months, then the outlook may well be bad. You have a lot of debt, airlines go into hibernation mode to protect themselves from the future storm and in turn worsens the effect.

However, all that said, for the wannabe that is applying in 2 months, going on a course 2 months after that for the best part of two years, can you really apply the same negative forecast? Surely, 2 years and 6 months later, things should be picking up?

WWW, I part agree with you, although as a lot of it comes out of the media, it attracts some scepticism from me. They want to sell newspapers. What is the one thing that, without fail, will attract one's attention? Money.

Having said that, I'll be saving this page in my favourites, checking on what was said a few months down the line and suggesting WWW goes to work for Mervyn :E

[RB311]

Dear WWW,

I am coming at this from the inside, as I am already working for, like you, an expanding airline, which has an active recruitment process as well.

It just seems that a lot of your posts appear to paint such a un rosy like picture that it would be small wonder if any one embarked on a new aviation career.

But like all industries there is a constant turnover of staff, whether it be retirement, illness or just plain pissed off with their job, and so there will be a need to attract new, keen, un-bloodied guns to take up the mantle.

You are right to highlight the potential downsides, I agree, but perhaps not to focus on them too much!

RB311

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

"All this comes from the media" is a difficult criticism to counter. The fact that the media is reporting what my own analysis of the data suggests means that I am able to illustrate my sentiments by pointing to media articles that share it. In by so doing I hope that my sentiment gains greater weight by fact of being shared by others.

I could quite happily post about the M3 money supply, house price affordability graphs, economic cycle theory and the BaselII banking regulatory reforms resulting in a money-as-debt economy that is doomed to collapse. But it doesn't lend itself to readable debate and I'd be dismissed as an internet Nostradamus lunatic.

High Employment is false. Unemployment is hidden by the Disability claimant count. Already redundancies in the thousands are happening in the world of finance, insurance, construction and engineering. The US employment figures show steady and accelerating rates of unemployement and the backward looking UK statistics will follow.

Low Interest Rates are false. At least a third of those looking to remortgage and all those looking for a first mortgage face interest rates of 6.7% after fees are included. Thats IF you can get a mortgage with your credit rating and LTV ratio. Those that are forced on to SVR will be paying North of 7.2%. When this is on a negative equity loan equalling 5 times joint houshold income then we are already way past the early 1990's boiling point of 15% interest rates on 3.5 times main income earners lending prevalent at the time. Don't even get me started on the Buy To Regret disaster and Liar Loans..

Shortage Of Housing is also a myth. Nearly one million houses are held as second homes or holiday residences which are entirely discretionary. All major housebuilders have stopped buying land and are slowing all sites work rate as they have a glut of unsold new build properties. We build between 160,000 and 180,000 homes in the UK every year and this is more than enough to account for population growth and the rise of single living. Immigration puts pressure on housing stock it is true. However, as the economy freezes over Harry the Pole and his million mates are gone in the blink of an easyJet booking...


Its not different this time. Its worse.

Research the 1991 - 1993 recession and what it did to airlines and pilots jobs.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

But like all industries there is a constant turnover of staff, whether it be retirement, illness or just plain pissed off with their job, and so there will be a need to attract new, keen, un-bloodied guns to take up the mantle.

Funny. I seem to remember Sabena and Swiss going bust and Virgin and MyTravel announcing big redundancies just a few years ago and then there were NO jobs for Wannabes overnight. Indeed nobody resigned from any airline because they were pissed off with the job. They were too worried about their mortgage for such indulgence.

Just one small UK airline like xxxxxxx or xxxxxxxx going under would make enough experienced pilots redundant to replace every retiring and medically unfit pilots for years to come.

Meanwhile Joey Wannabe has a very expensive IR slowly expiring, a big loan and a job offer from Burger King.


And its ME that will have to sit here on this forum next year reading the endless wailing of despair from Wannabes bemoaning the lack of jobs, the debt misery and the endless agony of their lives post basic training!

;)


I do sincerely hope that things turn out better than I expect them to. But remember: British households are not just more indebted than their counterparts in America, but more than in any other western European or G7 economy. To make things worse all this debt is backed nearly entirely by house prices. A note by ABN AMRO, the investment bank, said — I quote for its full gore — ‘The UK looks more vulnerable to a housing correction than the US. The degree of overvaluation looks more acute, nearing 50 per cent in the UK compared with 25 per cent in the US.’


We live in a credit fueled country and are at the start of a huge credit crunch.. protect yourself and your family.


WWW

[RB311]

I do sincerely hope that things turn out better than I expect them to.
So do I!!

You really ought to be an economics adviser! I am a honours graduate of economics and most of what you said went over my head, but what I did understand was major depressing.

The discovery of a planet sized asteroid on a direct impact course would have a more cheering effect, me thinks.

[A and C]

I find it very sad that you have become so disillutioned with flying, to call flying being a "taxi driver" ( have you got a job with BA?) is showing how low you must have sunk.

I know that a lot of pilots sit around all day on autopilot and bitch about things but you realy take the biscuit, you have made your dream happen and now all you seem to be doing is pulling up the drawbridge after you.

I do think that we are going to have a tough time over the next year or two but that is no reason to not be at the forefront of the next upturn in the market.

I should take time to think how lucky you are with a flying job............ if you want proof then spend a seven day shift inside a Boeing 707 fuel tank with a rivet gun........ I know I have done both!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm not disillusioned. I love my job, my company and my base. Life could hardly be more chipper in the Welshmans household to be honest. I find my job rewarding, fun and well paid. Its better than I ever dared dream as a Wannabe.

I fail to see how I'm drawing any drawbridges up.

My concerns are somewhat more prosaic and paternalistic. Lets say a Wannabe is weighing the £80k Integrated option against the £50k Modular. Lets say he reads my words of caution and does a bit of research and decides to go Modular. Lets say there is a deep recession. The £30k he didn't borrow may well be the difference between bankruptcy and being able to manage.

Make your case against my cautionary argument of impending recession. I won't stop you. I can make my case all day long. Just leave out the aggression. I'm not causing this crisis. You may easily assert that we should mark your word that its going to be a mild downturn and there will then be a boom. What about providing a bit of meat on those bones? Do you see the de-coupling of the BRIC nations economies from the US providing an engine to the global economy during the current US and EU recessions? Are you hopeful that central bankers have better information and tools this time and will manage the downturn better than nearly 20 years ago?

Come on. I'm genuinely interested. I know you are a 28 yr old Air Traffic Controller who has booked an Integrated course at Oxfords price leading school of aviation and as such have a certain hysterical dislike of my talk of economic doom. I know you repeatedly call me a pub bore as a result. You don't like my views because they run counter to the decisions you have made. You have CRM issues already! ;)

Are we just lobbing bullets in the messengers direction?


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Because I am sitting here in front of a computer screen making fortunes in the City as you speak. Today I'm long on the FTSE and Sterling and doing nicely thanks.

You?

WWW

[sketchy]

He's quite possibly busy trying to sort out his loan for OAA.

[XX621]

Have to jump in here. Cannot resist.

I'm not overly impressed at WWW's rantings...but he is right to highlight the risk, based on possible experience of the industry, to persons about to risk their homes on training.

However, question for WWW: I am working in the City (right now in the FX markets - having my sandwich and checking in on pprune) I would be very interested to learn how exactly you are making such a fortune from day-trading. To stand even the remotest chace of making a living you need to have a) very expensive real time feeds, b) be live on the markets every second the markets are open PLUS offline research time, and c) have very considerable knowledege of the markets. That goes for spot, equity, derivs any form of trading.

Or have you written an algorithmic exectution system which sits there printing money whilst you cruise the blue skies? If you have, lets have a look, we'll buy it off you, and you can buy the airline you work for; recruiting all those poor wannabess your clearly care for so much?? If you fancy buying BA, you could probably get a good price right now too.

:ok:

[Nichibei Aviation]

My concerns are somewhat more prosaic and paternalistic. Lets say a Wannabe is weighing the £80k Integrated option against the £50k Modular. Lets say he reads my words of caution and does a bit of research and decides to go Modular. Lets say there is a deep recession. The £30k he didn't borrow may well be the difference between bankruptcy and being able to manage.


This is not only a problem in a recession but effectively a problem in day to day life for any new pilot looking for a job.
Leaving aside the wealthy, the average student pilot is putting his financials at high risk by going integrated.

Still, recession is not the only risk out there.
If Osama decides to have 100 planes blown mid-air at the same time tomorrow, commercial aviation is history.
If a student is involved in a car accident and gets injuries that won't allow him to hold a class 1 medical, his career is history.

But fear shouldn't be the way to convince a students to go modular or integrated because you'll discourage everyone including those people who are already in such courses or have graduated and are looking for their first job.

[paco]

I'm not saying that anything will or will not happen, but I remember just before Air Europe folded (many moons and buffalo ago) that you couldn't get on a flying course at any of the major schools for at least 4 years. Afterwards, of course it all vanished overnight. I think there were just 2 jobs in Flight that week, so it can happen.

However, it is true that we are now a service-based economy with not much in the way of heavy industry (or gold) to back it up and it is very fragile indeed. That's partly why there are wars, to keep the money circulating.

If you have a dream, carry on with it - what else are you going to do? The problem with this industry is that you have to think at least a year ahead, and all you have is your gut instinct.

Good luck whatever you do

Phil

[nickmanl]

WWW, I'm not even to going to pretend I'm as 'clued-up' on the markets as yourself. However, as you have whittled on about not shooting the messenger when people have responded to your 'concerns' for the market, I feel I have to say your response to Plastic787 is nothing short of immature and pathetic in my opinion. If the comment was deleted why do you feel in digging it back up and reprinting his response?

Whilst your prophecy of doom may ultimately be correct can you please step down of your high horse and consider for a second that not everyone will be unemployed and homeless in a year facing the financial nadir you predict.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

XX621 - not really making a fortune. My IGIndex account shows a modest yearly positive balance from various positions. The one thing I DON'T touch is Forex - I've been burnt too many times and finally learned my lesson there plus the smartest guy I know is a Forex trader and his stories give me sleepless nights.

But being a keen amateur economist and dabbling in markets I probably have an awareness that is better than most Wannabes about trends and prospects. I don't see many other commercial pilots with an interest in economics making postings on Wannabes about their career prospects. More would be welcome but then everyone just ****'s off from this forum the minute they get a job ;) !


Plastic 787 - lets kiss and make up - I've deleted the comments that were posted and deleted then reinstated, fair enough?

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

WWW, I'm not even to going to pretend I'm as 'clued-up' on the markets as yourself. However, as you have whittled on about not shooting the messenger when people have responded to your 'concerns' for the market

Ummm, point me to the posts that address in more than 5 words my concerns about the global economy, the credit crunch, the house price crash and the prospect of airline business collapses such as is not occurring at Alitalia? Most comments here are playing the man - not the ball.


Whilst your prophecy of doom may ultimately be correct can you please step down of your high horse and consider for a second that not everyone will be unemployed and homeless in a year facing the financial nadir you predict.

Of course your phrases such as prophecy of doom and and being homeless are chosen to deride my view that a major recession akin to 1991 is likely. You wish to portray such views as outlandish nonsense. Very well. This is why I have posted link after link after link to such mainstream sharers of this view as the Telegraph and Times and Economist and the IMF and others.

I have never said all airlines will go bust and everyone will lose their homes. Some airlines have gone bust, are going bust or will go bust and the 27,000 people who lost their homes last year will be joined by at least 45,000 other this year. This is reality and you either talk about it rationally, stick your head in the sand or shoot the messenger.

None of which will change the fact that recession certainly is happening in the US, certainly will happen in the UK and certainly will result in the job market for Wannabes contracting.

Which is the point of this discussion, unwelcome though that fact may be.

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

That's absolutely fine. Being a Wannabe is highly stressful and being able to share and express that here is part of the service we aim to provide.

My advice would be not to borrow such a large sum and to go Modular and keep the day job - you're not exactly old and there's really no need to rush given the current outlook... You think you're miserable now not having a pilots license - just wait until you've got one but no job!

WWW

[XX621]

WWW: You are very wise to keep out of forex! Most human forex traders are beginning to realise same!

I've started the ATPL g/s but don't give a stuff whether I get a job or not, but I am very fortunate in that I have a job which can finance it without too much discomfort. All I focus on is the fact I want a CPL and an IR as it feels like the next challenge.

I personally do worry when I hear the early 20somethings go on about landing an airline job as if it's the only thing worthwhile doing in their lives / the only think they want to live for. On that basis, I do think the forum needs a Simon Cowell to keep the tearful contestents, and their families, from too much grief.

I, personally, would doubt the downturn will be THAT bad. But, what do I know? ;)

[nickmanl]

WWW, at no point have I suggested the threat of recession is 'outlandish nonsense.' The possibility of a recession is, unfortunately very real. However, I have just conducted a very brief search in google regarding the possibilty of a recession. Whilst there are the articles supporting your point of view, there are also posts concerning a much more optimistic outlook.

Whatever happens it will be interesting to see how it develops.

[Diaz]

There is guaranteed to be a recession and a big one at that, the imaginary money that the UK has been living off for years is going to become exactly what it is- imaginary. The real question is just how low will the economy sink- and if the rest of the world will get dragged down by it. Although I haven't started any training yet, I have no intentions of doing so until I have gone through uni, and have a chance to see what the world is like after a few years- I can assure you it will be different.

[Rugbyears]

Come on chaps – I don’t see any need to attack each others personal character. This is a forum which encourages lively and informative debate. I think we should be advised to remember, each post is merely an opinion, held by the individual choosing to post. If one does not agree with this view point, then it is their right to counter this opinion, whilst arguing their grounds for doing so. We should all try to refrain from attacking users merely as a result of not agreeing with an opinion.

There have been several key points addressed in this thread so far. Nevertheless, for what it is worth, in my ‘humble' opinion WWW has kindly forewarned of a threatening storm on the horizon. For this reason, it is left to each individual to rationalise what is being warned and duly decide whether or not they choose to prepare and arrange the necessary precautions in order to limit the potential impact. As I am at the early stages of ATPLs, I am only too aware of expected costs. I therefore deem it prudent to listen to various predictions and opinion, and rationalise each appropriately – Can you imagine budgeting £70.000 but as a result of a down turn, you are required to pay a further £40.000 which could have been avoided through careful planning – Just my humble opinion, ‘Don’t shoot the messenger’!!!!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I concede that my view is merely that. I invite those holding contrary views to state them. This will help Wannabes come to their own views and thus make their own, informed, decisions.

Personally I believe the house price crash alone is enough to see the failure of at least one UK airline. The credit crunch and the recession are just added extras.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/44840/why-this-housing-crash-could-be-worse-than-the-1990s.html

Why this housing crash could be worse than the 1990s

The credit crunch is set to get even worse.

In a week where we’ve seen some lenders pull out of the mortgage market altogether – if temporarily – and others raise interest rates substantially in the hope of putting off customers, many borrowers may be wondering how much worse it could get.

But according to the Bank of England’s latest quarterly Credit Conditions survey, over the next three months lenders expect to cut lending further, raise charges, and be more demanding on terms, such as hiking deposit levels, for example.

So it’s little wonder that the IMF reckons Britain is one of the countries most vulnerable to a property crash…

Along with France and the Netherlands, the IMF believes Britain has one of the world’s most precarious property markets. It calculates that at least 30% of the value of homes cannot be explained by fundamentals such as demand or rising incomes, reports The Times.

Of course, this has been obvious to anyone with any sense and has been for a long time. High house prices aren’t about supply and demand, or rising incomes – they’ve been all about availability of credit for years now. And that’s vanishing rapidly, even for wealthy buyers. C&G now demands a £200,000 deposit if you want to borrow £1m, double what it was at the start of this week. So much for the unassailable London market.



My view is closely mirrored in the article above.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I note on the news right this second that the UK's largest mortgage provider the Halifax has just announced (as of Monday) a hike in its interest rates.

For those borrowers who can only afford to put a deposit of between 10-24.9 per cent, HBOS will charge them 0.14 per cent more.

So basically a Higher Lending Charge for LTV's above 75%. There goes the second holiday or weekend break plans...


WWW

[XX621]

There goes the second holiday or weekend break plans...
WWW

Not if you're travelling with Ryan or Easy!

[Rugbyears]

If for argument sake we are heavily affected by the recession, and it certainly looks plausible – what is the consensus of opinion regarding time frame.

My estimations would be 3 years at worst ,and 1 year at best. Although, I am no economist. :{:{

[SkyCamMK]

I bet that until fuel prices drop we will get deeper in. Finance rules most of the world after oil. We have no chance of escaping just look at the tax situation as well. The gravy train is still running but people and institutions are leaping aside to try and cover their backsides. When the current round of mortgage applications is sorted we will not all be worse off but with the oil prices everything is affected whether we like it or not. With low inflation and still some growth it is technically only a slow down but that can be bad enough. 3 US airlines failed in recent weeks, plus Alitalia perhaps BA? Virgin merger what next? Take out a £60k loan to fly? NO not likely!!!

[Trevor Macken]

IMHO, the recession could be 18-24 months at best. At worst try 36months. Any Irish (fellow) wannabee's should be aware that the ESRI released figures this morning to 'confirm' that we are now in a full blown recession..

Celtic Tiger = Celtic Kitty :{

Who will the Russians have as their V.B.F.'s on the slopes from now on in :sad:.........................................

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0404/economy.html

[JB007]

Sensationalism Copy and Paste Press Alert...!!!!

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3662046.ece

Even those successful LCC's could be hit too! Our boss, seems to think it's the stag parties in Amsterdam, those weekends in Nice and Venice that will go first...and that's LCC market territory...

Doom...Gloom...No one is safe...Doom...Gloom...:ok:;):p

[JB007]

Sort of Thread Creep but related to the UK economy and aviation industry:
A Thread starting in R&N with regards to a potential merger between Virgin and BMI...

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/02042008/323/virgin-atlantic-aims-merge-bmi-pushes-lufthansa-approve-deal.html

Even these sort of carriers feel the need to consolidate...markets such as UK/European scheduled and Long Haul...

As a UK pilot community the choice of employment is reducing year by year...significant for aspiring regional pilots and Wannabes...

Timing could be quite literally everything, once the dust settles on TCX/MYT and FCA/TOM mergers in terms of fleet capacity/buisness stratergy in approx 2 to 3 years time, the next cue ball arrives...

Doom...Gloom...Where Will It End...Doom...Gloom...

I've gotta stop drinking at lunchtime!

[nickmanl]

slow down but that can be bad enough. 3 US airlines failed in recent weeks, plus Alitalia perhaps BA?

What on earth makes you think BA will fail!? Do people really think the terminal 5 fiasco will hit them that hard? I for one very much doubt it will. Maybe for the next month or so it may creep into people's minds but after that people won't even remember. There are many more airlines closer to the wall then BA.

[SkyCamMK]

No I do not think it will fail in reality but what other sort of company given the monopoly it had for so long could continue given its recent history? Even if only some of the things discussed on here had a grain of truth then they would be ripe for failure, takover or some other way made to change their ways. Not that any other company may be any better - the airline business is a low margin high risk entreprise constantly being undercut. Only above average service and quality will keep it where it has come to be accustomed to reside. T5 will recover of course but if people voted with their brains and feet would they continue to pay for a substandard service that has been a foreseeable situation and not properly dealt with. Big bang changeovers are the highest risk are they not?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

US recession confirmed - here comes the job losses:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/04/bcnnonfarm10.xml

US job losses put recession in focus


The number of Americans losing their jobs hit a five-year high last month in a further sign that the US economy is firmly in recession mode.

New data from the US Labor Department shows 80,000 people lost their jobs in March - the third straight monthly drop and the biggest decline in five years.

The so-called "non-farm payroll" data would have been worse - a loss of around 100,000 - had it not been for a rise in government jobs.

In addition, jobs figures for both January and February were revised downwards, recalculated to a total of 152,000 losses from a previous estimate of 85,000.


US job losses just keep on coming and keep on being revised upwards. I strongly suspect this month will be revised up as well in the future.

People miss-remember the last recession. They attribute the house price crash as being a result of people losing their jobs with high interest rates. In fact it was the crash in house prices that caused the recession and high debt repayments were as a result of broader economic policy. Just as it will be this time.

If you want to see the future then just watch the USA. Whatever happens there will happen here. But as our house prices to disposable income is more highly stretched than here and as the Financial sector is an even bigger part of the economy over here it will be worse here than the States.

And that's pretty bad.

It is doom and gloom. It is real. It does affect Wannabes. I make no apologies for talking about it and will continue to do so.

Now go and enjoy this lovely sunny Friday afternoon - I am. :)


WWW

[RB311]

The last housing crash, and iam old enough to remember also had a lot to with the removal of joint income tax relief, which suddenly made mortgages a lot less affordable..

Throw into the mix the fiasco with the Exchange Rate mechanism, and you have a few extra factors to contend with.. such as interest rates at 15%....

Just a thought.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

That you fail to see the relationship between house prices, the economy and the airline industries recruitment requirements is a perfect illustration as to the ignorance of many Wannabes. All are strongly linked.

A recession is now happening in the USA. One is booked to arrive here in 2008. Make your training and funding plans accordingly. Thats all you can do.

Cheers

WWW

[Nichibei Aviation]

hey WWW an interesting thread on Airliners.net that illustrates how right you are: Will WN enter bankruptcy?

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/3917663/

To become or not to become a pilot, that is the question.

Sorry but I'm fed up. I expected a warmer information exchange on this website, in reality it seems that it's not worth it.
Moderators telling prospective students that the apocalypse is nearing, students disrespecting me while I try to help them.

To those who are joining us this summer: see you there :ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You want a warm exchange of information? Well here it is and its red hot. Did you want a back slapping sympathy club? If you are here to discuss aviation then that's lovely but a big element of aviation is money - because that and that alone make aeroplanes fly - and money comes soley from the economy and the economy here in the UK and there in portugal is in deep deep trouble (but not as deep as Spain).

Trillions of dollar losses are evidenced here. Despite the ECB literally pouring money onto their heads the Euribor rate is at high not seen since Christmas. There is only one reason for this mass banking panic - they KNOW that they are bust and that things will only get worse..

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinanci...03?rpc=401&

The US banks are INCREASING their desperate borrowing from the Fed. They are deep in a dark hole and digging like crazy.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/508fcb8e-01d6-11dd-a323-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1


House prices are opinion. The debt is real.


WWW

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Received this morning in my inbox, not once received anything like this. (I subscribe to Aviation Job Search to see who is and who isnt)

Storm Aviation Limited

A320 TYPE RATING COURSE STARTS 14TH APRIL 2008,ONE PLACE LEFT, REDUCED PRICE! placed on: 04/04/2008
LONDON

Details:

Storm Aviation has just one place left on our A320 Type rating course starting the 14th April in London.

This is a unique opportunity for any pilots looking to gain an A320 type rating and further their aviation career.

Due to last minute availability of this space we are pleased to offer this course at a vastly reduced price- Please enquire further for details.

You would just be delighted if you had paid full price for said course wouldnt you.

Quite telling in my eyes....:hmm:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

That's a very interesting anecdotal G-SPOT. For some months now I have been anticipating 'offers' from FTO's and price adjustments as the number flowing through the doors drops in response to the withdrawal of loans and the inability to MEW (Mortgage Equity Release - eating your house).

Up to today I have seen nothing much. This could be the start of it.

Good news for Wannabes - cheaper training.

Hurrah.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The last housing crash, and iam old enough to remember also had a lot to with the removal of joint income tax relief, which suddenly made mortgages a lot less affordable..

Throw into the mix the fiasco with the Exchange Rate mechanism, and you have a few extra factors to contend with.. such as interest rates at 15%....

Just a thought.

RB11 - The removal of the married allowance on housing costs was announced 3 months before it came into effect. During those 3 months it did spurn an increase in the number of properties offered for sale to the market. The day the tax change came into effect was the day any such downward pressure on prices was removed. They went on to crash for 3 years by around 40% in real terms.

This time the Vested Interests in the property market will probably portray HIPS as being responsible for the current crash. Which will be nonsense. Its just prices are too high. Just like last time. Really quite simple.

WWW

[ChriSat]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7330311.stm

Nuclear Fusion (Nuclear Reactors as interim solution) = Unlimted Hydrogen = Unlimted Fuel = Cheap Flying!!

:ok:

Chris

[Yahweh]

WWW,

I'm probably wrong on this and feel free to correct me if I am, but I would have thought that the increased cost of fuel would have a negative effect on the cost of training which would mean that the training providers would be unable to lower their training costs, regardless of the impact of availability of loans?

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Yahweh

The larger schools have probably hedged their fuel, but even if they haven't I doubt that any subsequent increase is going to give wannabees a reality check.

If somebody is prepared to gamble 70k then another 20k for a 737 rating, then I doubt 10p per litre is going to make any difference.

[Artie Fufkin]

Storm Aviation Limited

A320 TYPE RATING COURSE STARTS 14TH APRIL 2008,ONE PLACE LEFT, REDUCED PRICE! placed on: 04/04/2008
LONDON

Details:

Storm Aviation has just one place left on our A320 Type rating course starting the 14th April in London.

This is a unique opportunity for any pilots looking to gain an A320 type rating and further their aviation career.

Due to last minute availability of this space we are pleased to offer this course at a vastly reduced price- Please enquire further for details. I know I really ought to have got over sifting through the :mad: in marketing by now, but how on earth can Storm Aviation keep a straight face and describe their SSTR as a "unique opportunity" :confused:

Sorry to go off topic.

[Speed bird 002]

I know im not just the only one on this forum who is worried about the current housing market situation. I thought i'd bring this thread up and running as the housing market does affect alot of us embarking on our goal in becoming an airline pilot. Its not as though everyone has rich parents who can folk the lot out in cash and therefore, you'll find many of us invest in the property market.

I was wondering whether anyone would agree with me that its getting harder and harder building equity for securing loans for training?

Bairing that in mind, would anyone agree that in the very near future, the major top flying schools would need to lower the costs of their training courses in order to make them more financially realistic?

any opinions appreciated.

Hayder.

[v6g]

I think your main concern should not necessarily be the housing market but what's causing the underlying problems. For most of your life and for all of your "conscious life", you've lived in an era of cheap money. All this cheap money has led to extraordinary growth in the value of assets in all classes. That era has now come to an end.

These are the questions that I would be trying to answer if I were in your shoes:
How will this affect student pilots ability to secure funding for their training? How will this affect the flight training industry?
How will this affect the ability of the paying punter to fly for leisure or businesses to send employees abroad for meetings?

And the demand for your skills as a new pilot? How will this affect the training costs for airlines? How will it affect your ability to pay back that loan? What interest rate can you expect to be paying?

Remember that the banks don't want you to pay back the principal, they just want you to keep paying the interest as long as possible, your entire life if possible.

[ampan]

Some good info there.

I suppose it depends on the market price for pilots over the next 30 years. Eventually, there will be one pilot, entrusted to watch the computer, but that's around 15-20 years away. So aviation is still a good industry to be employed in - although there have been better times.

Funding for the qualification is a separate issue. If the property is in a nil or negative equity situation, the banks won't lend on the property alone. But they still have you to lend on. In other words, if you go to the bank and explain what the loan is for, the bank may well feel that it's an acceptable risk (although they'll still want that second mortgage over the house, negative equity or otherwise.)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/graphics/2008/04/07/cccom107.gif


Above shows house prices related to wages. It is used alongside this article from Roger Bootle in Her Majestys Daily Telegraph today:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/07/ccom107.xml


Below shows house prices with retail inflation adjusted for so is therefore often referred to as 'Real Prices'


http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs/generated/homepage.png



You can clearly see that we are very much at the top of a very steep peak in the graphs. If history is any guide, and it usually is, prices will now fall to a point below the long term mean as it overcorrects. In the last house price crash of the early 1990s we saw a peak in July 1989 when the average house price hit £113,869. By Oct 1995 prices were £71,725.

The correction will be faster this time in my view. More perfect information due to the internet will counter the spin of the Vested Interests of the mortgage/construction/sales industry. More importantly the role of Buy-To-Let mortgages will prove disasterous. At the start of 1999 in the UK there were 58,800 BTL mortgages in existence.

The numbers rose in a sharp straight line up to the summer of last year when there were 938,500 such mortgages in the UK. 58 to 938 is one heck of a fundamental market shift. As these 'portfolios' of depreciating assets, assembled by amateurs with borrowed money, enters negative equity you will see them being offloaded or repossessed at a phenomenal rate.

This will be a turbocharged crash.

I expect the impact on the UK airline sectors to be worse than in the last recession of the 1990's as its bigger now, consists of more discretionary travel and lacks some of the protectionist rules that were in place 20 years ago.


As FTO's go bust the others will cut their prices to the bone to survive.

WWW

[A and C]

I have to say that I find WWW's gloom & doom a bit hard to take and wish if I my post is not removed for disagreeing with a moderator to offer another view.

Hours prices particlarly in the UK have been over-inflated for years, this is due to the actions of estate agents, morgage company's and the british obssesion with making money from your house.

The fact of the matter is that it matters not one iota how much your house is worth if you don't intend to sell it. In fact for most people a downward price correction is a good thing after all less Stamp duty (govermment house buying tax), lower estate agent charges and lower morgage charges.

It is unfortunare if you have a just got a house at top of the market prices that is now worth less than you owe for it but remember the rest of the market has fallen so you will pay less for your next house.

The real victims of lower house prices are the Mr 5%'s YES the leaches you have to use to buy and sell houses that work the percentage game, these people have driven houses out of the grasp of first time buyers for there own proffit.

What we need is lower house prices this will eventualy result in lower morgage payments and more free spending money, it will free the british from a 25 year enslavment to the morgage company's.

I have no doubt that the aviation market will slow and that getting a job might be a bit harder for about 18 months but one answer to all this is to go down the modular route to trainning and save your selfs £20,000 in trainning costs over integrated route. After all you get the same licence at the end of the course and £20,000 is a lot to pay for for a bit of help getting a job.

The doom & gloomers on this forum are busy putting peope off spending money on trainning so the first to be hit will be the expensive integrated courses so in 18 months when the market picks up the supply of these people will dry up quickly and the airlines will drop the obssesion with "integrated" pilots like a hot potato when they can't fill the seats on the flight deck.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Since when do I remove posts that offer an alternative opinion to my own?

You have to understand that millions of people in the UK for many years now have used rising house equity to clear their annual 0% interest credit card debts. With this option now removed they face crippling costs leading to bankruptcy OR heavily changing their spending habits. Either is enough to curtail growth to an extent where a recession is entered.

The market is defined at the margin. With marginal falls in prices the market is going into reverse with estate agents desperately applying pressure to sellers to lower prices before the agency goes bust.

Take a look at http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/site/search and check your postcode. In mine there are 45 properties who have reduced their asking prices in the last 7 days alone..

You don't like my doom and gloom views. OK. But is that sticking your head in the sand, shooting the messenger or just a plain refusal to stare facts in the face? In aviation we always consider the risks and the worst case likely scenario. A House Price Crash and Recession firmly fits into the likely range of outcomes.

A V1 cut is unlikely - but we practice it every 6 months and brief it on every departure..

WWW

[A and C]

I agree that we have to look at all the likely outcomes of the current situation but you are taking a very pesamisitc view, in fact in aviation terms you are allowing for two engines on the same side failing at V1.

If you took this view then you would never start the take off roll, and this is what your advice may do for some peoples flying careers.

During the mid 80's I was working on the ground for a large airline, a large number of the pilots were into share dealing big time and most people thought (including themselfs) that they were very very clever with all the money they were making. One day it all came to a very sudden stop when the city crashed, you could smell the fear of these people who had got themselfs involved in something that they did not fully understand and lost a lot of money.

Since then I have not taken advice from "flight deck" experts on anything except flying, you are welcome to your opinions but that is just what they are opinions.

[Grass strip basher]

Some awful US airline traffic stats have been released for March...

United and Amercian (2 biggest airlines) posted declines of -7% and -5.9% respectively despite the early Easter break.
US airways also down 3.5%... US also cutting by capacity by 3-4%.
Other domestic carriers have also announced capacity cuts of up to 10% in domestic fleets.

Did someone say it was all about traffic numbers and these weren't going to be impacted?.... hmmmmm and its only just beginning... :uhoh:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Opinions shared by many economists and backed by some fairly strong statistical data and historical precedent though.

My views may be responsible for someone never persuing their dream to their lifelong regret. They may save someone from committing financial suicide and ruining their life. Its been said that timing is EVERYTHING in this industry.

Right now I'd have to say there is a grave danger that the time is for recession and airline failures.

Anyway, lets stay on topic and keep this to house price inflation/deflation and its outcomes for wannabes and for funding training.

WWW

[plinkton]

I'll offer a more blunt opinion:

People are generally stupid, short sighted and greedy, I have seen hundreds of folk watch the value of their house rise and immediately go and get a conservatory built on the back. Last time I looked into the value this added, it was 10%, that's 10% the cost of the conservatory, not the house, so at 5k they have just spent 4.5k which they will not get back.

The next thing they must do is borrow against the house to get a secondhand, clocked, ex-fleet, silver 3 Series BMW on the drive to 'keep up with the Joneses'. (Older types will get a Golf)

Then comes the laminate flooring, and huge TV.

If there is any money left they MUST have a jet wash for the new brick drive and PS2, etc., etc., plus a mini moto, and other 'boys toys': All on credit cards.

It's a long story but I would come into contact with these types a lot and out of curiosity I would ask them if they thought there would be a house price crash. The answer, from just about all was no.

The credit crunch is more than a crunch IMO, it's the start of it and a lot of stupid, greedy people are going to lose their homes, some through not being able to re-mortgage and others through not being able to borrow more to live.

Borrowing money in the way we have been doing for the last few years is over.

Like I said people are generally stupid, short sighted and greedy.

[saccade]

Once again a bit more copy/paste

http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/04/06/skybus_aftermath_main.ART_ART_04-06-08_A1_4V9RIFN.html?sid=101

"At this current level, there's no such thing as a low-cost carrier," said Darryl Jenkins, a Virginia-based airline expert and aviation professor at George Washington University. "There's currently no airline in the United States that has a viable long-term plan for survival. Jet fuel is a killer category, and it's a desperate time for the industry."


Grass strip basher, it is interesting to read your opening post of this thread again, posted only two months ago. It is about 'high oil prices' of $75 and $85 p/b. Now everything less that $100 looks cheap...

[Grass strip basher]

To be balanced some "okay" traffic numbers out of the Big Easy this morning and Aer Lingus (although largely due to fleet expansion... thinnk load factor was down). But Easter in March may have helped Easy... April numbers will be interesting

BoE credit conditions survey released last week suggests banks are now really starting to turn the screw on consumers.... it is 3-4 months time that I think we have to worry about, but you are right the outlook has got a lot worse in the past 2 months if you ask me.

[SkyCamMK]

www thanks for the link to Snake - it's worse than I suspected near me. 15% drop in prices in the Cranfield area in the last 2 months.

plinkton yes and not only greedy but we now have a young tribe of property feeding predators that have been encouraged by previously cheap money too. Property renovation as promoted by TV as a hobby meams some of the gullible have also been trapped into thinking that property was fail-safe.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Things are happening faster than I thought possible.

This morning the Halifax (UK's largest mortgage lender) published its monthly house price survey results.

They have shown prices declining by 0.3% - 0.4% every month since September 2007.

For last month, March 2008, they report that UK house prices dropped 2.5% in the month. 2.5% in one month makes it the biggest monthly drop for 16 years since we were in the middle of the 1990's house price crash and recession.

Its really no longer a debate about whether there will be a HPC and a recession - its about how bad it will be.


WWW

[kj990]

WWW

Why do you post this stuff? I've never seen so many people in active denial, remind me what comes next - is it fear or panic?

Radio 4 'Listen Again' is a must this morning. Hearing the Halifax 'economist' and Mr Coogan from the CML is hilarious, both desperately trying to talk it up.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I post this stuff because:

a) Quite a few Wannabes are young and don't follow or read or consider the issues of broad economic conditions or the impact of a HPC on pilot jobs,

b) I find it easy to write as I'm actively involved in this field,

c) It is by far the most important thing for any Wannabe to get right, enter the industry at the right time and its Jets and Smiles all the way. Enter at the wrong time and its bankruptcy and regret and and a bedsit in Albert Square..


WWW

ps The next stage is Fear and within 3 months we should move on to Panic.

pps I agree - the Today programme was hilarious - it reminded me of Saddams spokesman in Baghdad denying there were any American tanks anywhere..!

[Grass strip basher]

Is this the chap who was talking up the UK housing market on the radio this morning??.... http://www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com/

[Mikehotel152]

A and C you took the words right off my keyboard! :ok:

The example of the conservatory is absolutely spot-on. I've seen so many people spending their equity, buying things they could never otherwise afford, completely ignoring warnings of a future house price fall. Someone close to me borrowed money to buy a car, spent that money on high-living, borrowed more to build a conservatory, spent much of that on other stuff, had to borrow more to finish the conservatory, and is now talking about getting a further loan to buy a TT...That person is a teacher and should know better :ugh:

There are a lot of ill-educated and naiive people in the world, and that's sad, but what angers me is the fact that itis all been fuelled by the money-grabbing irresponsibility of the lenders and the tax-grabbing antics of the Labour Government. As for estate agents, they have made fortunes out of the house price boom for doing pretty much nothing. I have no time for them.

So, I have absolutely no sympathy for people who are now crying about house-prices falling, negative equity, rising costs of borrowing etcetera. This was all entirely predictable. I've been saying it for awhile and have no economic training. :ugh: We bought a house at the tail end of last year despite the current situation because we worked out what we could afford irrespective of what the mortgage lenders were offering (three times what we wanted in fact). Unfortunately, we're probably the exception to the rule and those who borrowed enough to buy the ludicrously over-priced properties will be the first to go bankrupt.

The only thing that annoys me about the downturn is the effect it will inevitably have on the aviation industry if there is a recession.

I'm all heart me...:p

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

In my minds eye that was the chap the Council of Mortgage Lenders have hired to do their PR work ;-)

UK house price figured have already gone Year on Year negative, the average house price was:

March 2007: £194,094

now:

March 2008: £191,556
---------
-£2,538


The Halifax are reporting three month rolling average figures which are softening the blow.. It does however allow the various vested interests to use phrases such as "house price growth is slowing".

However this will change in a month or so times as even the massaged figures go Y-o-Y negative. Perhaps its happened already as The Sun wades in today (online - watch tomorrows paper for the print version) with:


House prices plummet

By SUN MONEY REPORTER
Published: Today

HOUSE prices have plummeted in the worst fall since the early-90s property crash, the latest monthly data from Halifax has shown.



Job losses in the City are going to hurt the Business and First traffic particularly on the London/New York route. Equity and inflation concerns will be hurting the middle class user of LoCos you enjoy several European jaunts a year. The bucket and spade working class Charter holidays may not get booked as the credit card is cancelled and the house repossessed.

Its going to hurt every airline. Badly. Which is what the shareprices were telling us months ago.


WWW

[kj990]

WWW.

Sorry didn't word my post very well, I agree totally with your point of view.

It seems like we are wrong though to worry according to Gordon Brown.

;)

[Philpaz]

Well on a lighter note, the new series of property ladder has started. Sarah Beeny telling us all how to be property developers :)

[Nichibei Aviation]

US regional airlines that faced serious pilot shortages a year ago have gotten a reprieve both through their own aggressive recruiting tactics and the slowing economy in the country.
The largest diversified regional operator, Republic Airways Holdings (http://www.republicairways.com/whoweare.html)whose subsidiaries fly for six US carriers, was forced to slow its growth last year after pilot attrition levels reached 20%.
Pinnacle Airlines Corp (http://www.flypinnacle.com/) posted an extra $1.5 million in pilot training costs during the first three months of 2007, and the carrier had to make a $1.1 million payment to partner Northwest Airlines for falling short of committed flying levels established in their air services agreement.
A year later current economic conditions in the US have mitigated that problem “naturally,” says Regional Airline Association (http://www.raa.org/)(RAA) President Roger Cohen.
Regional carrier efforts to strengthen recruitment and legislation passed by the US Congress in late 2007 extending the pilot retirement age to 65 have also contributed to an easing of shortages, Cohen explains.
But the head of RAA also cautions that the macro factors that served as triggers for the pilot shortage – fewer individuals interested in becoming pilots and growth in operators overseas and in the corporate and fractional business – remain intact.
While Cohen characterizes the current relief as a “twenty second timeout,” those issues will again become relevant within the next five years.


http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/04/08/222826/raa-economic-conditions-ease-pilot-shortages-at-regionals.html

[cirruscrystal]

The underlying factors are completly different to the 1990s. Is it a bad thing that prices are flattening off - it isnt a crash or a slump, but it will be if idiots keep spouting about being experts and having crystal balls.

I am no economist but the underlying factors are completly different to any time before, market drop is no doubt caused almost singularly by the tightening of mortgage lending. Let things settle and maybe slump a bit.

It seems that it may become a self-fulfilling prophecy seeing as everyone seems to know the future, which in turn eventually cannot doing anything but downturn houseprices due to lack of confidence about the future.

Electrolysis of water - HHO gas hydrogen fuels are on the cusp of being turned into the fuel of the future - research it and find out more. The Hadron Collider is coming online - the future is bright and breakthroughs are being made all the time.

If you want to fly, get a PPL and enjoy yourself, do the rest later when the market has recovered is my suggestion.

House prices historically double every ten years - let things settle and find a sensible level - and lets not build anymore f****** apartments :ok:

[cirruscrystal]

Learn to fly - you can go at the weekends, touring holidays up the country, Europe? I do agree WWW that now maybe not the time to go 0 - ATPL. PPL, learn to love flying and get some valuable organic experience in, get some hours under the belt and then maybe after a 100 hours or so, then go for it if things look good, but i know it all involves the wonga.

If you cant afford a PPL and flying at weekends, dont go near an ATPL i would suggest!

[saccade]

Electrolysis of water - HHO gas hydrogen fuels are on the cusp of being turned into the fuel of the future - research it and find out more. The Hadron Collider is coming online - the future is bright and breakthroughs are being made all the time.

This is what I have been doing for the last four years now and I'm not as optimistic as you are. Boeing definitely disagrees with you, and all the initiatives for alternatives are focussed on synthetic and bio fuels. Algae oil will be viable if oil is $800 + p/b, so this won't help much in the short term.

But I may have missed something. So when can we board your HHO gas planes? What is the cost of HHO gas? What is the role of particle accelerators? What breakthroughs have been made? Whoeoe, I'm so exited!

[cirruscrystal]

I have seen combustion engine running on it, self generated electrolysis, hydrogen production! Not rising - Hydrogen is the future:ok:

http://hydrogencommerce.com/

http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2008/q2/080403a_nr.html

http://www.intelligent-energy.com/index_article.asp?SecID=12&secondlevel=809

[MIKECR]

Well.....amongst all the doom and gloom, i'll add my tuppence worth:-

On the house front - just remortgaged and valuation has risen 15% in the last 7 months.

On the job front(im a low hour fatpl) - a year of nothing and low and behold 2regional TP interviews in the last 10 days. 2 mates in a similar position, one started TR last week, the other has had 2 offers in the last 3 weeks.

Theres still plenty jobs out there just now.

[saccade]

Thanks for the links, but it has been discussed before.

From the Boeing link:

"Boeing does not envision that fuel cells will ever provide primary power for large passenger airplanes"

[clear prop!!!]

OK WWW,

Just about every post from you of late has been problems problems problems.

Do you have some solutions for the members of this forum as to how they might progress their career choice?...or is it just gloom and doom from now on?

The half full half empty scenario stated earlier by one of our members less prone to moderator hero worship is very apt.

I think your pilot come economist roll took a bit of a dip when you started quoting from the Sun!!

Has your very own airline not just quoted a massive increase in passenger numbers?

Have not both Scotland and your homeland not just seen an Increase (all be it small) in house prices?

Yes, it bad out there for the moment, but airlines are still hireing, passenger numbers are up and predicted to increase. OK margins may well have reduced and share prices may fall, but that will not be at the expense of pilot numbers. Both Ryan and EZY continue to add routes and the Biz Jet market has never been stronger.

Let’s just temper the pessimism with a bit of positive thinking.

People will travel…they’ve got used to it! Margins will reduce, shares will fall, over priced property in the SE will find It’s true market value and….we will not go back to the horse and cart1

Are you suggesting that Wannabees just give up or do you have some wise words of advice from the 90’s which you and the industry survived?

[Nichibei Aviation]

Finally some common sense in this thread.
Nice post Clearprop, sums it up pretty well :ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

EZY has today closed the recruitment door and talk now is of reducing fleet size and headcount. Senior management have had their pay frozen. Hatches are being battened down.

ALL I can do is try to warn Wannabes about the storm that is approaching.

You say people will travel and they will. Maybe 90% of will travel in a recession. That leave 10% of airlines bust, hundreds of pilots out of work and all Wannabes as screwed as they were in the early 90's recession. Its really quite simple. Wannabes live and die at the margin of the industry. If the margin moves in slightly - they die.

Cirrus I am no economist but the underlying factors are completly different to any time before

You are right you are no economist. The underlying factors are exactly the same as before, namely, a rapid period of growth and lending leading to a house price bubble which stretches affordability far above the long term average. Which is where we are now with the average house costing 9 times the average income. Borrowing 5 times joint earnings means that 7% interest rates on mortgages feels just as bad as 15% interest rates did on 3.5 times single earnings in the last crash. This time the triggers may be slightly different, the underlying causes are not.

The airline industry is about to enter a major recession in Western markets. Get busy dealing with it and stop shooting the messenger.

I guess possible strategies involve training slowly, cheaply or not at all. Certainly do not rush into large debt and don't give up the day job is possible.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Its all encapsulated here today by a source as sombre as The Economist:


The bust begins

From Economist.com

Housing-market woes spread to Britain


FOR years the housing market in Britain has defied gravity. For a few months in 2004 and 2005 house prices moderated, before taking off again. But now, finally, tighter credit and overstretched household budgets are pulling prices down.


And particularly draw your attention to:


A period of falling house prices has been long overdue and may be welcomed by those who have been priced out of the market. But past experience suggests that it is likely to inflict economic damage by slowing consumption and GDP growth. When the market slowed in 2005 household spending rose by only 1.5%, its lowest since 1992. That augurs ill for Britain’s economic prospects


The 2005 housing market SLOWDOWN damn near drove the economy half way to recession. Just 3 years later its fairly obvious where the current much much sharper deeper slump will send it.


You know how sometimes its only your best friend that will tell you a horrible truth.....

WWW

[Nichibei Aviation]

Get our of your bubble WWW.

Zulu time might be centered on the Greenwich meridian but the UK is far from being the center of the world.

UK traffic doesn't even account for 5% of Europe's total traffic, so even if the UK does bad, there will be plenty of jobs available throughout Europe.

Ezy stopped hiring in early February already, this is old news.

You fail to mention that Airbus has received firm orders for almost 400 new aircraft in the first quarter and Boeing almost 300. At this pace, they're in for another record-breaking year with the upcoming Farnborough air show.

As said before, let's follow the Alitalia case instead, 3000 pilot jobs are at stake, which can be compared to the number of cadets OAA and CTC together can supply in 5 years. The last report said that they have over 200 million of cash and that they can hold for a while longer waiting for the next government to come up with more reasonable options.

[Grass strip basher]

The Ryanair Q3 presentation from a couple of months ago makes interesting reading. Every $1 on the oil price costs €12mn from PBT... there is also an interesting matrix on slide 14 that shows the impact of rising fuel costs on profits... if yields fall just 5% and the oil price stays at the c$106-108 range even this highly profitable airline may struggle to make much by way of profit. No wonder there is a management pay freeze at the airline... wonder what it does to the P&L of other airlines once hedges roll off over the next couple of years?

It never ceases to amaze me how some people on this website fail to see the bleeding obvious when it is staring them in the face.... record high oil prices.... falling house prices.... broad based inflation... falling consumer confidence... a dramatic reduction in the availability of credit.... US possibily in recession..... recrutiment freezes at several airlines and some on the brink (Easy, Thomson fly, Alitalia, pick a US airline).... maybe it is better to turn the question round on the optimists... what is so great about the outlook for pilot recruitment?? Which of the above is incorrect? What am I missing? Just because planes have been ordered can they not be deferred or cancelled?? I also never get the arguement "oh please stop saying nasty things because by saying them it may come true".... geeez well thats a reassuring arguement... the ostrich defence... bury your head and hope it all goes away!

The outlook to me appears the most sh*t scary to me for over a generation and I would love to be persuaded otherwise! I look forward to some optimistic well researched counter arguements (i.e. besides the "I work for a flight training organisation and think you should get into serious debt to keep me actively employed" brigade.... you know who you are). :ugh:

[Nichibei Aviation]

Oil quoted in USD and GBP is rising I agree, oil quoted in euro is rising but not at the same pace and it was lower in 2007 than in 2006.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2007/RES115A-1.gif

If their biggest customer, the US, buys less oil, the Sheiks will have to lower the barrel price.

I know what you feel people, everytime there's a recession all the media tells everyone that it's the end of the world, the banks start to panic and to merge or go bankrupt, etc... IT'S ALWAYS THE SAME THING. EVERY SINGLE TIME THEY SAID: "THIS IS IT". Shareholders trading meanless pieces of companies to make profits on the buy/sell difference are loosing money...so what?

On 9/12 everyone believed that all airlines would go bankrupt, guess what, it didn't happen.

No matter how the economy is, try to go modular people. Why pay twice the price for the same training? Even in the healthiest economy that is crazy!!

[Grass strip basher]

Shouldn't you have to pay to advertise your flight school on Pprune Nichibei??

... and here was me thinking loads of pilots got laid off post 9/11 and airline recruitment came to a grinding halt... and I thought many US carriers did go bankrupt.... but maybe I just imagined it though.... :ugh:

[saccade]

If their biggest customer, the US, buys less oil, the Sheiks will have to lower the barrel price.

:} You never give up do you?

The Sheiks don't set the price, the markets do. US consumption was down 4% in Jan 2008 compared to Jan 2007 but Global consumption is still going up. India and China are becoming very big players, and still only 1% of the Chinese population has a private car.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm aware that I am talking about a small island off the coast of Eurasia (though Spain, Ireland and Netherlands are all in a house price crash and France and Italy aren't too far behind). You might concede that to the average Wannabe here the pilot market in the UK, Europe and the US is of primary interest.

EZY's news of fleet contraction and being over crewed was very much news to me yesterday. Trust me - if the lean mean orange machine is seriously tightening its belt then there will be a bloodbath as other airlines go to the wall left right and centre.

Your comments about Sept12th provide a lovely example of how timing is so critical. There were many who graduated in the year after that who failed to find a first job. A year on their IR needed renewing and they somehow found the £thousands to renew it. A further year on and the thought of throwing good money after bad after hundreds of rejection letters meant they gave up. Dreams shattered.

Your repeated attempts to talk up the market and encourage people to undertake flying training also provides a useful illustration. Just like and Estate Agent will always tell you "there has never been a better time to buy" so will anybody in flying training always spin the state of the industry. They DON'T care a jot if you get a job, just as long as you write the cheques and they can move onto the next guy, they will be happy.


I would estimate from my time as an instructor at an Integrated school that two thirds of self sponsored student were funded by mortgage equity release from their own or their parents house. With house prices dropping fast and mortgage rates and LTV's increasing sharply this source of funding will be drastically cut back. As few airlines will consider any kind of cadetship during a recession the large and small flying schools face a bleak market. I'd push for a discount. It happened in the 18 months following Sept11th. Usually in the form of nothing off the main course but freebie MCC courses to those cheeky enough to negotiate at the beginning.


Good luck,

WWW

[peterinmadrid]

I am following this thread with interest. I would note that Oasis Hong Kong have just suspended services, which is a great shame and it is a lot that I feel personally as I knew this airline well and even was on the first fight. I am in the middle of an ATPL theory course right now. The cost of maintaining the IR rating has been mentioned several times. How expensive is this? What about maintaining a MEP rating and CPL? I ask this because I intend to follow WWW's advice by training slowly and wait it out. My basic idea is to leave the IR alone for now and take advantage of the low dollar to build hours in the USA. I would appreciate any advice as to the best strategy.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Every other IR renewal can now be done on a simulator which roughly halves the cost. However the renewal now contains all the elements of the initial IRT. Plan on maybe 8 hours in the Sim at £150 an hour plus then the test time (about one hour, no more) and the examiners fee of around £150.

Then next year doing it on the actual aircraft work on £330 an hour... gulp.

WWW

[peterinmadrid]

Thanks, WWW. What about the cost to renew a CPL or MEP, is that likely to be expensive? If I could find work as an instructor would I still have to pay to take extra training or would these just "renew themselves."

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Becoming a ME IR instructor takes care of renewal costs at larger FTO's but getting that job required lots of ratings and instructing hours and is not really a viable plan - though it worked for me.

WWW

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2008/04/09/matt.gif

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Oasis in Hong Kong has gone bust. So thats four airlines in the US and now one in the Far East that have announced ceasation of trading in the last week. Alitalia is on the very brink of going bust in Europe. BA share price is lower than Sept11th in real terms, the low cost carriers are cutting capacity plans and freezing wages, the charters are merging and 'gaining efficiencies'...

These are just the tremors people.


WWW

[MIKECR]

peterinmadrid,

You dont renew a CPL, it is a licence. You renew "ratings". After achieveing your frozen atpl then all you need to keep current for job purposes is the IR. The MEP will probably become irrevelant as you will undoubtedly be applying for TP or perhaps jet jobs, where you will be issued with a new rating. The IR however has to remain current to start a Type Rating course. The first renewal can be done in the sim, the second must be done in the aircraft. WWW's estimates of 8 hours plus test etc are perhaps a bit OTT. Myself and pals included have had to renew IR's recently - an hours sim refresher and a second trip with an exaimner has been more than sufficient.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Had you been flying in the year between IRT and Renewal?

You get rusty very quickly..

[JB007]

Globespan CEO, Mr Rick Green has an article in the Scottish press regarding seeking a merger scenario...

Choose airlines carefully, especially ones that charge you for type ratings on top of what you've spent already!!!! Research the industry more than ever guys!

MIKECR,

You dont renew a CPL, it is a licence. You renew "ratings".

I believe under JAA, a licence needs renewing every 5 years! At just shy of £300 quid!

[MIKECR]

OK if we're being picky then!! I think he was meaning more the rating side of things rather than the licence itself.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Globespan 'looking for a partnership'

By ALASTAIR DALTON
TRANSPORT CORRESPONDENT

FLYGLOBESPAN, Scotland's largest airline, is seeking a merger or acquisition to fuel further growth, its new chief executive has revealed.
Rick Green, head of parent company Globespan, has disclosed that the firm remains firmly focused on expansion despite its impending first full-year loss, caused partly by major problems with hired-in aircraft used last year.

http://business.scotsman.com/business/Globespan-39looking-for-a-partnership39.3956465.jp


Thats news to me - thanks for the heads-up. I don't like the smell of it from a Wannabe perspective.

WWW

[redsnail]

WWW, Checkers overheard in the LTN crew room that new hires were going on 6 month contracts. Have you heard any thing like that?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

No. I doubt it would happen as the legal rights of limited contract employees are now extensive and the savings and flexibility limited.

WWW

[JB007]

And just in case no-one had seen it, i'm sure flap15 wont mind if I quote his posting in here:

Bad news guys and girls. The Boeings and old GB Airbus's are being phased out quicker than originaly planned so the fleet total will be 5 less than originaly planned for 08. This means that easy have excess Flight deck and Cabin crew. Andy Harrison is sharpening his axe. Unless some of the smaller operators go out of business soon all will be quiet on the job front for a while

Andy Harrison Quote.

Accelerated fleet rationalisation: Our goal is to have an all Airbus (easyJet specified) fleet which means de-fleeting the Boeings and the GB aircraft fleet over the coming years. We will accelerate this programme which means that we shall have five fewer aircraft for W08 than previously planned. This means we shall need 200 fewer crew. We shall obviously aim to manage the crew numbers by stopping recruitment but this alone may not deliver the required numbers.

We are still working on which bases these aircraft will come from. The decision will depend both on airport cost negotiations and route profitability. We shall also need to accelerate the introduction of Airbus into Luton.

To minimise the impact on jobs, we shall be seeking to review our basing strategy. We cannot afford to have anybody (management or crew) sitting around with nothing to do. As you would expect, we shall then need to discuss the output of this with the relevant people.

[student88]

I can confirm easyJet are only offering temp contracts to it's new Cabin Crew.

S88:ok:

[Nichibei Aviation]

Shouldn't you have to pay to advertise your flight school on Pprune Nichibei??

... and here was me thinking loads of pilots got laid off post 9/11 and airline recruitment came to a grinding halt... and I thought many US carriers did go bankrupt.... but maybe I just imagined it though....


So you want me to advertise here at ridiculously high prices to fill the rude moderator's pocket? Do you know that those paying for these ads are ultimately the students themselves?


The Sheiks don't set the price, the markets do.


Never heard of OPEC have you?

You sound like little kids who don't have a clue of what you're talking about. History's greatest pilot shortage is right in front of us.

I've talked to a guy today as pessimistic as you guys: "they say that the recession will progressively become global, 20% of homes in Cleveland are empty and being plundered because banks want their money back, banks will go bust, the US is going back to stone age, their lifestyle is unsustainable, commercial aviation will disappear, etc..." he said.

:hmm:

I said: this is what THEY say, whoever that is. I won't believe it till I see it with my eyes. It's not the first time that people make money by diffusing bad news.
And it's about time that the people in the US switch to 4-cylinders anyway, with the environment in mind.

[JB007]

History's greatest pilot shortage is right in front of us.


Ha ha ha ha...that's funny! You sound like the bloke who sold me my CPL in 2001...

You're taking a BIG risk we these postings Nichibei Aviation, if it all does go Pete Tong as people think - you're gonna look like a right k*ob!!

[tailend]

Add Centralwings to the list of endangered species - they have massively reduced their schedule - see the website - and also talk with my angry sister-in-law who has just made it back to London via another airline.

[Nichibei Aviation]

Ha ha ha ha...that's funny! You sound like the bloke who sold me my CPL in 2001...


Just one question: are you still looking for that first job, 7 years later? :hmm:
I can answer for you: it's a NO. I don't see what's wrong with you then, except for the fact that you need to grow up.

This is not a game, it's about people who want to invest in a job training.
The lack of serious reflects how little you care about these people and how little you care to help them. Why don't you give them website adresses of cheap flight schools instead of showing how we will go back to stone age?

Try this one: www.gsaviation.it (http://www.gsaviation.it) or this one www.newcag.be (http://www.newcag.be) or even this www.hubair.be (http://www.hubair.be) (modular)

[Grass strip basher]

Nichibei do you therefore think people are not telling the truth/mistaken when they tell you about airlines that have recruitment bans, others are going under (Oasis in the past 48 hours)... and you tell others to get out of their bubbles and open their eyes!?.... do you honestly not think things have got significantly worse for pilot recruitment over the past 6 months??.... does it not worry you that pretty much everyone on this sight seems to place almost zero value on your input?? (Anyone wanting to stand up for his point of view please step forward now.....)

No wonder you are not working for an airline you must be a nightmare to sit next to for 5 minutes let alone all day.... if there was a "Pprune Prat of the year award 2008" the betting would have closed already on you :} I'm just greatful you make me laugh so much.... your posts always brighten up my day and make me feel better about myself :}

[hollingworthp]

GSB,

Couldn't agree more :ok:, I don't think a team of comedy writers could come up with funnier and more 'original' viewpoints than our friend in Tokyo. :ugh:


The only reason I come on here now is for a bloody good laugh!

[student88]

Statement A - There's a lack of pilots.
Statement B - There's a lack of quality pilots.

Spot the difference?

The truth is theres lots of guys out there looking for jobs who just don't have what it takes to a) get a job or be desired by an airline and b) have the natural ability to fly an aircraft. I remember hearing a member of management of a certain Oxford based flight school saying "if you've got a drivers license we can teach you how to fly an airliner". It's just not right and actually quite a dangerous mentality to have. I have a friend who's been accepted into a flight school who I know just don't have what it takes to work for an airline in such an important position. In some cases there could be as many as 200 passengers (or customers as my company now likes to call them) sitting behind a low hour FO and countless civilians on the ground...

No amount of money can make someone a good pilot. My view is that learning to fly simply installs the processes, methods and exercises the ability to fly well. Any instructors reading will, I hope, agree with me that there are just some who've completely made a mistake pursuing this career. Although they've spent lots of money - I cant help but think that they're just clogging up the CV in tray for those low hour applicants who really should get the job.

I'm not saying that I'm right - it's just my view. I'm open to criticism.

S88:ok:

[99jolegg]

I agree, which is why, to some airlines, integrated candidates are favourable because the element of risk is far lower in some cases. Those that weren't "meant to fly" shouldn't (the operative word) get through integrated selection.

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Integrated Selection

What a load of tosh, there is no way that by doing some GCSE physics brush up and passing the "Entrance exam" that you can tell if a wannabee is going to be a success in the flying world.

Its just a ruse by the larger schools to give added value to the product that they are selling to Airlines and wannabees.

Consider the time and effort spent on officer and aircrew recruitrment in the RAF and still a large %age get chopped.

There should be a law against any company charging you to assess if they can relieve you of nearly 80k and then dump you onto probably the worst job market since the millenium. They will of course offer assistance with recruitment but only until the next course behind you qualifys.

If I was an airline recruiter and needed large amounts of "product" from the big schools to fly the endless orders of 737's sat at seattle then yes I would know what I buy and buy what I know, if however I was looking to recruit in smaller numbers (as it will be from now on) I would definetely be looking for somebody with aviation/life experience and some aviation related common sense.

What little recruitment there is will probably be offered to ME/IR instructors or higher time guys with instructor ratings. To say that integrated guys will respond better to high performance types because they managed to pass the OAT entrance exam is just naieve

[99jolegg]

I was referring to Pilapt tests, i.e. concentration, hand eye coordination and ability to retain information to name but a few. Wouldn't you say they are good factors to extrapolate whether someone will be of any use in a cockpit, strictly in terms of ability?

[mustflywillfly]

I think it was Del Amitri (an infamous scottish philosopher) who once said:

"Nothing really matters, nothing matters at all
The needle returns to the start of the song
And we all sing along like before."


An economic "downturn" is happening right now. Airlines are going bust and more will. The immediate future is not rosey. However, as my girlfriend always says "what goes down must always come up at some point".

Good time to be popping out of the training system with £80k debt, prob not. Keep the faith though, stay focussed always invest in yourself and stay positive and when the timing is right there will be a job.

To give up on ones dream is madness, to pursue ones dream without weighing up all the odds is also madness. At the moment there are more odds to way up. Taking a carte blanche view that we are all doomed though is just as bad as blind faith. Come on peeps, lighten up!

MFWF :O

[A and C]

Twelve pages of posts by and large predicting the end of the world as we know it, things are not looking to good for the near future, however undoubtidly things will pick up in a year or so when people cop on to the fact that things are not as bad as the doom merchants are saying and start to spend a little money.

I have to say that from the posts above WWW,s predictions are enough to make the faint hearted put knife to wrist, but look on the bright side mate you are at the front of the line if some one decides to remake Dad's Army......... that's if you can do a scotish accent!

[saccade]

undoubtedly things will pick up in a year or soReviewing the discussion so far, it seems that that people are either worried about a downturn because of the economy, or about the high oil prices (or a combination of both). In my view, the threat of the oil price is much greater than the weakening economy, and I also think an upturn is unlikely unless the oil price drops for some reason (application of alternatives).

After reading all the news articles about the problems with Northwest, Jetbleu, easyJet, Skybus, Oasis etc, all CEO's seem to agree that despite the slowing economy the load factors are still reasonable good but they can't cope with the fuel prices. From what I've read there is not a single airline in the US that has a viable long term plan for survival. The outlook for the oil price: not many 'experts' are willing to do predictions and it's far from an exact science, but the outlook is more bullish than ever. Goldman&Sachs said last month the oil price could reach $200 in 2010, and as soon as this year in case of a supply disruption. There is simply not much capacity left, basically the whole world is pumping as much as they can, except maybe Saudi Arabia which has a little to spare. Oil company's aren't planning to boost production, simply because they can't offset all the depleting fields with enough new production. At the same time global demand is booming, especially from Asia.

We are moving from an era with cheap, abundant oil to an era of expensive, scarce oil. And this is an huge change. Especially for aviation, but for example also for the people in third world country's who can't afford their food anymore.

[mustflywillfly]

Well said A and C. See you Saturday if the weather holds up. Fingers crossed.

[Flaperon75]

Silverjet the latest to join the list of those in trouble......

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article3718954.ece

[A and C]

Sliverjet may be having difficlties in the present market but I think that your statement that they are "in trouble" is a bit pesimistic.

Undoubtedly the current situation will hit the business travel sector harder than other sectors of the market but it would seem to me that you are rather looking on the dark side.

Perhaps the management are planning to change the business plan in light of the current situation to............ shall we call it "Easy Atlantic"?

Silverjet is small enough to change business direction quickly if required.

[Flaperon75]

Well...... they had long predicted that March would be their first break even month and have now recently reported that they failed to acheive this.

Silverjet can't continue to run as a loss making business indefinately and according to the news item above it seems the sharks are now circling....

[Yahweh]

"We are moving from an era with cheap, abundant oil to an era of expensive, scarce oil. And this is an huge change"

Well, we all knew it was'nt gonna last forever. Now, where did I put that perpetual motion machine :E

[A and C]

At the moment with "slots" in very short supply at UK airports merger is the name of the game if you want to expand.

It would seem to me that following the takeover of GB airways by easyjet expanding into the long haul sector would be the next logical step.
(please note that the GB LHR slots were not part of the easy jet deal and went to an American airline for a considerable sum)

To this end Siverjet must be a prime target with routes out of a big Easy jet base.

[outside_loop]

99jolegg,
the 'risk' is no different with an integrated candidate. any assessment prior to the course was done by a flight school with a huge vested interest. It has little credibility. Not knocking integrated courses - spend your money how you like.

Flight tests and exams on the other hand are done by an independent authority. Same standard for everybody in the UK.

It’s the equivalent of Cambridge or Oxford (the real Oxford, not the flying school) saying that they only want people from private school who once passed some puny entrance test, and not caring what their A-level results actually were. That would be ridiculous wouldn’t it?

[BitMoreRightRudder]

It would seem to me that following the takeover of GB airways by easyjet expanding into the long haul sector would be the next logical step

Ezy buying Silverjet and expanding into long haul? Mate ezy are downsizing the fleet, and quite possibly looking at a total profit wipeout with the cost of a barrel of oil at current prices. What on earth is logical about an LCC operating predominantly A319s buying a business class only airline operating 767s? It would be a huge and pointless gamble.

[HappyFran]

If we accept the rather inconvenient truth,:{:{ (rather difficult to ignore), that a significant economic downturn is upon us. And we want, nay need, with every beat of the heart to become a commercial pilot, I assume the logical route would be to slowdown our rate of training, and focus a bit more on the pennies.:=

So my question is what are the real economics of a FTO and how far can they go to reduce prices and still remain in business.

If we take a typical training flight hour in a PA28 at say currently £130 /hr, what is likely to be the cost build up.:E

I guess they are something like;

Variable: Fuel £25.00
Instructor £20.00
Maintenance £10.00
Land fees etc £10.00
Total Variable £65.00

Fixed: Depreciation £20.00
Admin £10.00
Overheads £10.00
Total Fixed £40.00


Total Cost £105.00


Profit £25.00 @ £130.00 /hr

N.B. these figures are my own work of fiction; I have no real knowledge or experience.:E

But if they are half way accurate then in the short term an FTO can forgo most profit and ignore depreciation (bit of a problem if need new aircraft in LT). So we have around £40.00 to discount off the cost of the flying hour, in order to get bums on seats.

This case is for a UK modular FTO.

What do the experts / wannabee experts think? :confused::confused:

[Philpaz]

Probably best to ask the guys that own there own, i can hardly see the FTO's being very forthcoming with the figures. Any 152/172/pa28 owners out there that could shed some light?

[A and C]

On the face of it you are correct but Sllverjet is quite small and it would not take very long to change the cabin to something more in keeping with a LCC.

All of a sudden intsant slots and you have transatlantic low cost all fed by a european low cost network.

Just becuuse an airlne is regarded as a LCC it will not nessesaraly stick to that one idea, a business should lead the market......... not follow.

[Re-Heat]

Take this for what it is worth - of the group of 30 I started work with in the City, 10% of the group have been laid off in the past 3 months...

And City folk travelling for business pay a great deal towards the industry...

[A and C]

Not a bad crack at the costings however you need to add £5/hour to cover engine overhaul and £8/hour for insurance.

The maintenance is real can of worms I am looking at the slow death of a once proud local FTO that is under pressure and letting maintenance standards slip, once an aircraft "gets away" from you in maintenance terms it will cost as much to get it back up to a good standard as it will to buy the thing in the first place.

The first thing to slip is the outward apperance, then reliability and if not checked safety.

Over the last few years I have spent a lot of money on maintenance of my fleet and now he costs have dropped dramaticly and reliability improved, I expect to see a number of other company's who have not invested in maintenance drop by the way side as the current situation bites along with the introduction of EASA part M that will drive up costs and tighten up maintenance practices.

What I do expect to see is a lot of cheap aircraft on the market as these issues bite, however all of them will be "old doggs" just waiting to cost the new owners a fortune in engineering bills.

The fact of the matter is that no one is getting rich in the GA business, under investment is rife and there is no room to cut costs just to as you say "put bums on seats" if you want to be in business next week.

If you a realy good deal comes your way I would guess that it will be cash up front and the company will be gone tomorrow along with most of your money.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You're on drugs if you think easyJet would be interested in SilverJet.

1) easyJet are tightening belts by disposing of the Boeing and A321 aircraft more quickly - adding some ageing 757's don't fit that plan

2) Luton ain't slot constricted and SilverJet don't hold any slot rights and even if they did then by going under those slots would be available for EZY to use for no cost - LTN ain't LHR !

3) Maxjet have gone bust, Oasis have gone Bust, Eos are bizzarely offering a free iPod Classic to encourage bookings, SilverJet are struggling.... Is this low-cost First/Business airline model good or poo...? Meanwhile EZY and RYR keep filing profits and keep growing.

4) EZY CEO Andy Harrison has said in the press and to my own ears that EZY has no intention of ever doing longhaul. I believe him.


And so back to the point:


House prices in the US, UK, Spain and Ireland are crashing and the US is certainly in recession with many believing the UK will follow soon. THIS IS 1990! Please take the trouble to learn the history regarding airlines from that period. By so doing you stand to learn from history. A valuable thing to be able to do and very rare.

Try looking up Air Europe, Laker, Caledonian and Dan Air for starters.

It is entirely consistent with history that several UK airlines will not be trading within the next 2 years. All will have hundreds of experienced and rated pilots.

Undertake and fund your training with this distinct possibility in mind. That's all I ask.

WWW

[99jolegg]

Frontier Airlines look to be scarcely treading water:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/04/11/222923/frontier-airlines-files-for-bankruptcy-protection-while-continuing-operations.html

[Re-Heat]

1) easyJet are tightening belts by disposing of the Boeing and A321 aircraft more quickly - adding some ageing 757's don't fit that plan

3) Maxjet have gone bust, Oasis have gone Bust, Eos are bizzarely offering a free iPod Classic to encourage bookings, SilverJet are struggling.... Is this low-cost First/Business airline model good or poo...? Meanwhile EZY and RYR keep filing profits and keep growing.
1) Silverjet fly 767s, not 757s
3) MAXjet were offering a terrible product at an odd price, with a bog-standard service. eos and Silverjet offer a premium product with strong service at a price less than BA - very different markets, and ones that could be aided by those looking for cheaper fares than BA in a downturn. The jury on their model is still out, and cannot be compared to Oasis and MAXjet in any way.

[mustflywillfly]

A thought for discussion, as I would like to know peeps opinion.

When all these fully qualified spammed up experienced Captains and FOs hit the market when countless number of airlines hit the wall over the next 2 years does this really mean the end to newbie recruitment??

I would argue that despite these bods being attractive to airlines they may not fit the airlines demograhics. Surely new blood, content with being an FO for 7 years, will still be needed. Otherwise, in the long term, airlines may have snags on their hands when the old and bolds die or retire to the Pitts special and the senior FOs want command. Noboody is left filling the RHS with the verve, commitment and ambition of someone who will pull out all the stops and work their little cotton socks off like a newbie would.

Of course the recruitment will thin out but it won't stop. Completely. Newbies will just have to try harder, be more patient and keep the faith a little more.

The RN and the RAF both screwed up when they turned off their recruitment taps thinking they were awash with pilots, only to find out that a few years later they needed to over recruit (I know I was there!). This recruitment process always seems to go in cycles. We are obviously just coming down off a peak at the moment to a slow trickle but eventually it will come back up again.

Also have we all been keeping an eye on EASA? There are very serious proposals (likely to happen) that will prevent ex military guys (even fast jet guys, multi engine etc) simply accrediting their military experience towards an ATPL. They will have to start from scratch. This may free up some more RHS space?

The future may not be bright but I don't think we are returning to the dark ages, no matter how many crappy headlines we read.

Just my 2 pence worth for today, now back to AGK Systems Urghhhhhhh......

[Mikehotel152]

Whatever happens there will be jobs going and I am going to do my best to get one of them. The more wannabes who are so uncommitted as to be put off by the doom and gloom of people like WWW the better. :p

[plinkton]

It would do no harm for any prospective pilot to take a very long term, objective view... and look at this business of investing stacks of money into flying as just that: An investment.

Coming straight out of uni and blowing 60-80K or whatever with no back-up plan is crazy. Far more sensible would be to attempt to run two projects or more simultaneously:


A small business that can be expanded or scaled down as market conditions (or other projects) dictate.
A serious stable career-type employment
Flying trainingI would never, ever invest the sort of money it takes to become a professional pilot without backup as above. The interests need to be diverse, so if you exited uni with a law degree and the 'no win no fee' business (for example) takes off, then get involved in this until it starts to fade and become less productive, then surf another wave.

Lets face it, one could blow the cost of a new house (once prices have corrected down by 30-40%) on getting a Professional Pilots Licence and lose ones medical the next day. Unlikely, but if not this, then there could be another 9/11 type event that scuppers your prospects.

Just my opinion.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The jury on their model is still out, and cannot be compared to Oasis and MAXjet in any way.

Apart from being a start up airline trying to undercut the legacy carriers on price whilst offering an alternative to their Business or First products. The mechanics of it are irrelevant. Whatever - a rip roaring success it does not appear to be.


When all these fully qualified spammed up experienced Captains and FOs hit the market when countless number of airlines hit the wall over the next 2 years does this really mean the end to newbie recruitment??

In every other downturn it has. I would concede that it might be different this time. Most airlines have come up with the idea that a FO can be recruited and persuaded to pay for his own type rating either up front or via a loan and reduced salary. They are often then tied to the airline, in debt and get paid less. They can't afford to leave and they are cheap labour. It MIGHT be the case that these employees will be more attractive than experienced rated guys newly unemployed who would qualify for full rate renumeration and would have career options as soon as the industry recovered. Its a thought. Not a nice one for anyone worried that their airline might be on shaky financial ground... they might find themselves being a less attractive recruit than a cadet. We shall just have to wait and see. Which we will.


Whatever happens there will be jobs going and I am going to do my best to get one of them. The more wannabes who are so uncommitted as to be put off by the doom and gloom of people like WWW the better

Whatever happens?! What about a Depression on the scale of the 1930's? In the 1990's recession you could not get a job for love nor money in this country and many had to go to the four corners of the earth to find one at any price.

Again people choose to label me Mr Doom & Gloom as if to imply its a personality trait that can be perhaps disregarded. If I'm on approach to say Barcelona and there is a wall of thunderstorms ahead. There is a CB over the field the wind is gusting to the maximum crosswind and the runway is under standing water. The night is dark and its rough as old boots. The first Alternate weather is worse than forecast and out of limits. The second alternate is filling up rapidly with diversions from Barcelona and it ain't sunny there either. My weather radar is a wall of red and magenta and the last two aircraft have gone around on approach but three got in during the last 20 minutes.

Am I Captain Doom & Gloom if I brief the pax that the approach will be rough and that a go around and diversion is a distinct possibility? Getting the cabin secure early and reviewing the fuel policy and windshear go-around with the FO is just scaremongering him right? Working out the actual below legal fuel for a distant bolt hole runway with good weather is just pointless speculation yes?

NO. In the job to which Wannabes aspire you are paid to consider the worst case, the most likely case and the inbetween AND then make a good judgement call. My posts on this topic serve merely as the weather radar, the ATIS and the Ops Manual.

They are things to be considered.

WWW

[A and C]

It would seem that your doom & gloom views are becoming confussed in your post above point 1 states that EZY are shedding Boeing and A321 aircraft more quickly and yet by point 3 you go on to say that Meanwhile EZY and RYR keep filing profits and keep growing.

These statments of yours seem to be at odds with each other, if you can't hang your doom and gloom theory together over a few paragraphs why should we put to much store by anything else you say?

The whole of my life has been plagued be the experts who have told me that I would ever amount to any more that "factorty fodder" and could come up with a thousand reasons to back up there pesimistic views of my career prospects and you appear to have the same cant do attitude.

Well it would seem that with a now as a Captain of a jet airliner, Licenced aircraft engineer and owner of a small aviation business I have rather proved the merchants of gloom and doom like yourself wrong.

Life is all about keeping a positive attitude but what I cant undertand is how someone like yourself who worked his way up via the GA route now has such a black view of the aviation business. It must be very sad for you to have worked so hard achived your goal only to find that things are in your view so bad.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Christ I hope you are never the engineer working on my aircraft if you can't understand that EZY are expanding, posting profits and plan to dispose of part of the fleet at an accelerated rate in the light of the clear economic crisis at hand. Its not exactly hard to grasp.

Life is all about keeping a positive attitude but what I cant undertand is how someone like yourself who worked his way up via the GA route now has such a black view of the aviation business. It must be very sad for you to have worked so hard achived your goal only to find that things are in your view so bad.


So if I keep a positive attitude on my hypothetical approach to Barcelona then things will be alright will they? No need to plan the contigencies then - just focus on keeping that attitude positive, perhaps I could smile a lot and pick up the paper??!

It is not very sad for me. I've got a pretty safe seat and a house price crash will work in my favour. I'm not depressed or worried. I'm trying to HELP wannabes. Don't spare a moment being sad for me - save your sympathy for those heavily in debt, at risk of losing their home and unable to find a flying job or go back to their old career.

WWW

[A and C]

Just seen your last post!

Whatever happens?! What about a Depression on the scale of the 1930's? In the 1990's recession you could not get a job for love nor money in this country and many had to go to the four corners of the earth to find one at any price.

Sorry to tell you that I got my first airline flying job at the start of 1991, the pay was above average for a first job, but you are right about one thing I did have to go to the end of the earth to find it..................... It was Birmingham based!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Lovely anecdotal - thanks. Cock all use to most wannabes though as you were the exception that proved the rule.

WWW

[Yahweh]

I don't believe that WWW has a black view on this, I would say he is just a realist.

We are heading for a recession whether people want to believe it or not, all the signs are there. Going into flight training with your eyes wide open is the the only way to move forward in the present conditions and definitely having a back up plan is the safest option. I have to admit although I don't like the thought, that hiring of pilots over the next few years is going to get more difficult, this industry is cyclical.

I would never try to disuade any wannabes from training but be prepared for a hard couple of years ahead. I for one am battering down the hatches and preparing a backup plan just incase things don't go the way I want them to ;)

[Re-Heat]

Frontier Airlines has just gone bust - still operating under C11, but for how long, who knows. 62 aircraft & hence crews potentially on the job market soon...

WWW - structure your arguments - what you mean is the GB A321s that do not fit the strategy are going, but that the A319 strategy continues, still replacing older B737s, albeit the whole company is growing at a reduced rate from the heady days of the past.