Will pilot shortage turn into a glut?
21 Oct 2007, 0000 hrs IST,Shobha John,TNN
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We’ve all heard of pilot shortage. This has led to many youngsters taking to flying like never before. But there are predictions that this shortage in commercial aviation, sometimes termed critical, is likely to be shortlived. Sounds pessimistic? But then, it’s better to be safe than sorry.
The present shortage has made these professionals among the highest-paid in any sector. And with the industry growing by leaps and bounds and airlines scrambling to buy new planes, the world is at their feet. As of now.
But this shortage won’t last, predicts Capt R S Shekhawat, technical and development pilot, Spicejet. ‘‘Spicejet has already gone in for a short-term contract with AI Express and Oman Air to lend 10 and 4-6 pilots respectively to them. In fact, the gestation period for a glut will become evident in 12-18 months.’’
How did he come to this conclusion at a time when pilot shortage has been pegged by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) at about 2,000 by the end of 2010 and some 20,000 by 2020? ‘‘This includes those needed for cargo airlines and general aviation,’’ says Kapil Kaul, CEO, Indian subcontinent and Middle East, CAPA. Also, by 2012, over 400 planes will be delivered, says Kaul, and these would need pilots. But with airlines making losses, some have rescheduled their plane delivery plans and these figures could change.
For Shekhawat, the arithmetic is simple. The number of those taking Class II medicals (for student/private pilot’s licence) was around 6,000 in the last 18 months, he says. ‘‘This will only increase. And the aviation growth won’t be enough to absorb and fulfil the dreams of all of them.’’ Some 50% of Class II medical candidates get through Class I medicals (for a Commercial Pilot’s Licence). Of these, only those who pass the DGCA written exam will finally get their CPLs.
However, Shekhawat says, a new DGCA rule last year put paid to the plans of many students. It made it mandatory for students to fly 50 hours before they could even take these written exams. Enrolling in a flying school just to get 50 hours was not easy. Many schools had few planes and instructors. Consequently, many went abroad where they got their mandatory 200 flying hours for CPL. Many of them will now be coming back. ‘‘In 2008, there will therefore be a sudden surge in applications for CPL from those who went overseas in late 2006 and 2007,’’ he says.
And with over 400 planes - let’s make it 500 to be on the safe side - expected to be delivered only over the next five years, where will these students find jobs? Most airlines have five sets of crew, i.e. 10 pilots per plane. That means about 5,000 pilots will be needed. Of these, 2,500 will be co-pilot vacancies. They will also take about three years to graduate to the advanced Airline Transport Pilots Licence (ATPL). Only after they become commanders, can the remaining 2,500 pilots find jobs. But that’s a long haul.
Though DGCA confirmed these figures, it was more optimistic. Some 5,000 passed Class II medicals last year, this year, it was 7,000. Of these, 3,227 and 2,305 respectively passed Class I medicals. Out of them, only 314 and 600 passed the CPL written exams, says a senior official. ‘‘Even if 800 pass CPLs this year, with a requirement of 5,000 pilots over five years, the shortage will there for about six years. Plus, pilots will retire and some will be found medically unfit.’’ But it still doesn’t address the issue of those who will come back from schools abroad, says Shekhawat.
Wg Cdr S K Buti, who runs a ground school for pilots in Delhi, agrees with Shekhawat. ‘‘The shortage won’t last. I have been warning students that the times of walk-in interviews are over. Airlines are getting stringent about training standards of these students during interviews.’’
Adds Mark Martin, senior advisor, KPMG,‘‘Pilots must get as much flying on multi-engine planes as possible as airlines are increasingly placing minimum criteria for total flying hours. Airlines in the US, for example, take pilots with a minimum of 1,000 flying hours.’’
In case these predictions do come true, here are some suggestions. ‘‘This is not a note of discouragement but guidance for the future,’’ says Shekhawat.
Government should encourage general aviation for business, tourism, etc. Why look only at commercial flying? There’s offshore helicopter operations, business, corporate and charter planes.
Do CPL training after graduation, instead of after Class XII as at present. Lessons need to be learnt from the boom-and-bust scenario of 15 years ago, when many wannabe pilots had to switch jobs in despair as airlines closed shop.
However, all is not gloom and doom this time. Hemant Shah, MD, Winnipeg Aviation, Toronto, says, ‘‘India could become a global outsourcing centre for pilots. There is shortage in Canada, North America, China and Middle East and many Indian pilots are joining airlines there. And this will continue for sometime.’’ Till then, fly high.
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