Turkey and Northern Iraq

[ORAC]

Youe remember how, supposedly, Saddam thought he had a green light to attack Kuwait because of the remarks of the U.S. Ambassador April Glaspie?

Well I hope the same thing isn't about to occur over Turkey and northern Iraq...

Turkey masses troops at border with Kurdish Iraq (http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/30/news/turkey.php)

Hurriyet: (http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/6594404.asp?gid=74) Did Rice green light Northern Iraq operation?

[ORAC]

Grauniad: Turkey warns of plans to invade northern Iraq (http://www.guardian.co.uk/turkey/story/0,,2115284,00.html)

Turkey has prepared a blueprint for the invasion of northern Iraq and will take action if US or Iraqi forces fail to dislodge the guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) from their mountain strongholds across the border, Turkey's foreign minister Abdullah Gul has warned.

"The military plans have been worked out in the finest detail. The government knows these plans and agrees with them," Mr Gul told Turkey's Radikal newspaper. "If neither the Iraqi government nor the US occupying forces can do this [crush the PKK], we will take our own decision and implement it," Mr Gul said. The foreign minister's uncharacteristically hawkish remarks were seen as a response to pressure from Turkey's generals, who have deployed some 20,000-30,000 troops along the borders with Iraq, and who are itching to move against the rebels they say are slipping across the border to stage attacks inside Turkey.

Among other things, Turkish military planners have been working on a scheme to establish a buffer zone on Iraqi soil to try to stop the rebels' movements.

The US and the EU regard the PKK as a terrorist outfit, but Washington is nervous of any military operations by its Nato ally that could destabilise Iraq's Kurdistan region. There are fears too that any instability in the north could play into the hands of Iran, facing growing problems with its own Kurdish population.

So far the Turkish military have confined themselves to shelling across the border and raids by units of special forces. In separate remarks yesterday, Mr Gul said, however, that Turkey was also considering air strikes against the PKK's bases in the Iraqi Kurdish mountains.

He said that, unlike a cross-border incursion involving troops and tanks, air raids would need no prior parliamentary approval. The Turkish parliament is in recess until national elections on July 22.

Mr Gul did not rule out the prospect of parliament reconvening before the elections to sanction an incursion. In a fresh bout of sabre-rattling on Wednesday, the chief of staff, General Yasar Buyukanit, asked the government in Ankara to set the parameters for an incursion across the border. "Will we go to northern Iraq just to fight PKK rebels, or, for example, what will we do if we come under attack from local Iraqi Kurdish groups?" Gen Buyukanit said.

The general's remarks rang alarm bells both in Arbil - the Iraqi Kurdish regional capital - and Baghdad, where they were interpreted as a request to also go after Iraq's Kurdish authorities, whom Turkey accuses of aiding the PKK fighters.........

[Green Flash]

Here we go a-bl00dy-gain.:(:sad: OK, so we (Brits) arn't in the north but Gordo, please please please get us out of this ever deepening pit of poo. Iraqi Army/US/Turks/Iran?/PKK/Kurds - a recipe for a mess if ever there was one.

[ORAC]

Oh boy, as if they didn't have enough problems with the Sunni and Shia in Iraq.... :ouch::ouch:

Bush's Turkish Gamble (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/29/AR2007072900859.html)

The morass in Iraq and deepening difficulties in Afghanistan have not deterred the Bush administration from taking on a dangerous and questionable new secret operation. High-level U.S. officials are working with their Turkish counterparts on a joint military operation to suppress Kurdish guerrillas and capture their leaders. Through covert activity, their goal is to forestall Turkey from invading Iraq.

While detailed operational plans are necessarily concealed, the broad outlines have been presented to select members of Congress as required by law. U.S. Special Forces are to work with the Turkish army to suppress the Kurds' guerrilla campaign. The Bush administration is trying to prevent another front from opening in Iraq, which would have disastrous consequences. But this gamble risks major exposure and failure.........

[Squirrel 41]

ORAC:

Thanks for the interesting link. It's very rare that I agree with anything that Novak has to say, but this is good. If true, this report feels like the Bush Admininstration's version of minimum pain required to avoid an all-out Turkish "intervention" in Kurdistan (nb, not "invasion", as that's naughty).

The problem is the "what's next?" question. If this report is correct, the Administration doesn't expect to kill all 4,000 PKK fighters, so how do they expect this to end? With the survivors throwing down their weapons and returning peacefully to Turkey? Hard to imagine...

S41

[west lakes]

The Turkish parliament is in recess until national elections on July 22.



This was reported on the UK news a few weeks ago (sorry can't remember exacly which station oe when), the above was suggested as one of the prime reasons!

[I've_got a traveller]

I wouldn't lose any sleep over this, those of us who were part of Op Northern watch/Warden know that the Turks are constantly "invading" Northern Iraq. It's an annual event for them. As Tracey from Big Brother would say " Deal with it".

ps not that I watch that drivel of course!!!

[Green Flash]

IGAT

One ginormous TSM coming up, eh?:uhoh: