New routes & new aircraft, added at short notice

[Bushfiva]

I've been reading PPruNe for a while now, and it seems that operators can add routes at pretty short notice, depending on whether anticipated aircraft actually arrive or not. I suspect I'm asking a stupid question, but how long does it take for a new route to become generally known to the potential SLF? Do flights operate empty for days, weeks or months, or do they automagically fill up with people?

Many years ago I had to get to Tokyo. My agent was working on getting a seat when suddenly, someone called Virgin had a seat to Tokyo. So I grabbed it. It turned out to be the first flight. I was coach at the time, and I distinctly remember Business being packed with lots of apparent partying, and the rest of the aircraft being empty apart from something like 6 of us all seated, surrealy, in the same place.

So, how fast does news get out?

[PAXboy]

These days, the news gets out very much faster than it used to because of the Internet. If a carrier primes those sites that look across numerous carriers, then they will show up within an hour or two.

I also recall landing up on a first flight of a route by sheer chance, Frankfurt to Detroit in April 1999. Down the back was no more than half full. But when I landed up on the first Munich to Johannesburg in Dec 2001, I was in club but the whole a/c was pretty full and I guess that LH had done their homework. Although, as they also had an established route from FRA to to JNB, it would not have been difficult to redirect the connecting traffic - as happened to me.

The key question is: How long will it take a route to be self-sustaining? That is a vexed question and there is no simple answer. The carrier has to have deep pockets and be prepared to wait.

[DILLIGAFF]

A few years ago I was trying to get back to LHR from MIA on standby on BA. Our flights left at about 1600 and 2000, when I checked in the agent said both flights were overbooked and it didn't look good. He then said American had just started up a flight to LHR that left at 2200 and it wasn't too well known yet and had over 200 empty seats on it. I did not get on either of our flights so rushed round to American and queued up for ages only to be told yes they had plenty of empty seats but they could not accept my ticket (even though they are Oneworld) because it was not validated. The BA staff had all gone home by now as the flights had departed so I could not do anything.Next day when I tried again for the BA flights I asked the check in guy if he could validate my ticket for AA in case I did not get on again, all he did was write across my ticket "Valid AA" and gave it back.If I had known that last night I would have gone round the corner, done it myself and gone back to AA and said there you are its been validated.You live and learn.
D