Typhoon export prospects, snowballs chance?

[jwcook]

Hi

I like some feed back on what you think the Typhoons export chances are in Japan and India or elsewhere!

The surprise exit/non entry of the Rafale from the Japanese contest leaves the Typhoon F18E/F and the F-15 in the race (The JSF is simply too late), can it possibly break the US stranglehold?, it does look like the Korean bid again... has it a snowballs chance?

Typhoon advantages (as I see them)
Technology transfer
Offer of local manufacture
Seem impressed with Typhoons performance

Disadvantage
US leverage on Japan.
Past purchase history.
Current inventory of F-15's.

In India it's still in competition again with F18E/F and F-16's or Various Mig/Su combo's, With India talking a split order, it should be in with some kind of chance, but I have little idea of what politics are involved.

And a fair few of the JSF nations are hedging their bets, non have signed up to commit to buy (that was scheduled for the end of 2006), tehy have signed up for the next stage with the caveat of a purchase decision in 2008.

Whats your take?, many thanks

John

[BossEyed]

Well, an export order is far more likely than a snowball's chance, that's for sure.
Here's a photo of the first flight - last Thursday - of an export Typhoon (for Austria):
http://www.aero-news.net/images/content/military/2007/Austrian-Eurofighter-0307a.jpg
Story here (http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?ContentBlockID=12901f69-1d99-4dbf-bc7b-0129e719ecdd#d).

[jwcook]

Ah yes 18 for Austria, and a Likely 72 for Saudi Arabia.

Austria should receive its first Block 5 Aircraft 1st July, the next to be delivered is also a block 5, but the remaining 16 will be block 8's however the first two are to me upgraded free.

The new Austrian government are trying to modify the support contract to make some savings (mainly face savings:) )

There has been a few developments which may help in Typhoons marketing..
During a March 21 hearing on Capitol Hill, Chief of Staff Gen. T. Michael Moseley was asked by Sen. Kit Bond, R.-Mo., if the Air Force wanted F-15Es to beef up the service’s fighter numbers. Bond’s home state, Missouri, is home to the Boeing Co. plant that is currently building variants of the F-15E to sell for foreign countries.

Moseley, an F-15 pilot, diplomatically turned down the idea.

“That airplane, as much as I love it, is not as survivable,” Moseley said, comparing the Eagle to the new fighters.
source http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2007/03/airforce_f15e_eagle_070323/

All foreign partners of JSF have now signed the Memorandum of Understanding for the program’s follow-on Production, Sustainment, and Follow-on Development (PSFD) phase. Several, however, say they will not commit to actually buy the JSF until late 2008 at the earliest while others, like Canada and Norway, are keeping their options open and others still – including Australia – say they have still not committed to purchasing the aircraft.

This falls far short of earlier expectations that the foreign partners would make final commitments to the program by late 2006. Lockheed Martin, the Pentagon and the US Air Force have not publicly acknowledged these uncertainties, and indeed the Pentagon press releases accompanying each country’s PSFD signature adopted a bullish tone.
Source http://www.defense-aerospace.com/cgi-bin/client/modele.pl?session=dae.25110320.1174737748.8jHGF38AAAEAACk2Ug wAAAAL&manuel_call_cat=5&manuel_call_prod=80526&manuel_call_mod=feature&modele=jdc_inter


So it looks like the time for some Typhoon marketing - ammunition supplied by Chief of Staff Gen. T. Michael Moseley (Bless him). It seems the push to get more F-22's by calling current US aircraft useless is playing into Eurofighters GmbH hands.

You also have Tom Burbage calling the F18E/F obsolete in 10 years (Bless his little cotton socks).


Turkey have just frozen the F-16 deal with the US...
Greece have a 'new' requirement :eek: .

So we have possibilities for Typhoon in Greece, Turkey, Denmark, Norway,Bulgaria, Romania, Switzerland, India, Japan, Now some of which have a chance! while others have a snowballs :)

Bulgaria\Romania they have got to be an outside chance!, Denmark\Norway depend on the course of the JSF, Switzerland is a possible!.

[Daysleeper]

So we have possibilities for Typhoon in ,......Bulgaria....... Now some of which have a chance! while others have a snowballs


I cant comment on the others but there is a JSF sales team practically living in Sofia just now. They seemed very confident, though anyone who has spent time in Sofia - lovely though it is - would probably think the government had better things to spend its money on.

[Chronic Snoozer]

JSF for Bulgaria??? They can't even keep the MiGs flying. :hmm:

Defence policy driven by LockMart et al.....just what they need.

[Elmlea]

So we have possibilities for Typhoon in Greece, Turkey, Denmark, Norway,Bulgaria, Romania, Switzerland, India, Japan, Now some of which have a chance! while others have a snowballs

Seems almost comical that 9 countries above see the need for an aircraft like Typhoon, along with Saudi Arabia and South Korea, while all we get are some very loud voices complaining that it's a pointless Cold War relic. :}

I know that, given the chance, there are more urgently-required needs across our fleets, and that money spent on Typhoon could probably have made some incredible differences in other places. Still, I'm curious why the Danes and the Swiss need an airframe like Typhoon and so many people seem to think we don't?

[mojocvh]

Ask Mr Putin.

[jwcook]

Re Bulgaria

The JSF team maybe confident but timing is critical, the JSF hasn't got a fixed price yet, nor a real delivery date (OK they have a date, but like all programs its going to be later or if it remains the same date then the product will suffer, it remains to be seen if they can avoid the mistakes of the F-22).

IMHO I think Gripen or the F-16 fits the bill for Bulgaria better, but Typhoon would only make sense if the offsets were huge, perhaps Bulgaria needs investment in certain industries!.

Re Russia, ISTR there getting a little more vocal of late, but has anything changed that much to warrant such a large leap in air capability for Bulgaria?

I'm just trying to understand the national context in which these competitions are run, so any help is gratefully received.

Cheers

[BombayDuck]

Chances of the Typhoon coming here are slim - the Su-30MKI gives us at least 70% of its capabilities with the addition of being able to upgrade it locally and maybe even arm-twist the Russians into some freebies, at half the cost of the typhoon.

[jwcook]

Is there anything in the Indian media regarding a split order?, as thats been mention in a few places!!, would the Russian equipment give India what its looking for in Technological transfer?

Cheers

[Pontius Navigator]

Defence policy driven by LockWalMart et al.....just what they need

Isn't dyslexia wonderful :)

[Chronic Snoozer]

Re: Bulgaria

My understanding is they are also looking at the F18E/F closely.

There will be a lot of resistance from the US to Bulgaria going for the Gripen for example due to the 'not made in/by NATO' argument.

[BombayDuck]

jwcook

Russia's always been very happy about technology transfer. We're building the Sukhois here, and have procured a deep license for manufacturing RD-33 engines for our existing MiG-29s.

No news in the media about splitting the MRCA order, but you hear grumblings from time to time... ')

[jwcook]

Many Thanks Mr Duck
Its great to hear from anyone in one of those potential export countries, as you get to hear some of the political and media content thats local to the issues.
Thanks again
BTW Portugal was also on the possible export list, and I hadn't heard that one before!!.
And I think Austria is about out of wriggle room trying to cancel the Typhoon order, best they can hope for is reduced maintainence cost (maybe!!!)