Should we order DEFCON 1 for August 22nd?

[SASless]

WSJ: Scholar Warns Iran's Ahmadinejad May Have 'Cataclysmic Events' In Mind For August 22
Tue Aug 08 2006 10:22:35 ET

In a WALL STREET JOURNAL op-ed Tuesday, Princeton's Bernard Lewis writes: "There is a radical difference between the Islamic Republic of Iran and other governments with nuclear weapons. This difference is expressed in what can only be described as the apocalyptic worldview of Iran's present rulers."

"In Islam as in Judaism and Christianity, there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time -- Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined."

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad "and his followers clearly believe that this time is now, and that the terminal struggle has already begun and is indeed well advanced. It may even have a date, indicated by several references by the Iranian president to giving his final answer to the US about nuclear development by Aug. 22," which this year corresponds "to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to 'the farthest mosque,' usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1).

"This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind."

[Gainesy]

Winged horse? Yeah, right.:hmm:

[FFP]

It's true ! I've seen a pic of one. It's called pegasus I think !!!!

God help us all . . . . . .. (whoever he / she / it / they may be)

I'm on leave on the 22nd . . .. so I'm ok :ok:

[microlight AV8R]

SAS,

Get down in your bunker mate and we'll let you know when it's all clear.

If you're struggling for rations, go to the local store and acquire a load of honey as it has an indefinite shelf life.

Three feet of earth cover should give a protective factor of at least x1000. Stay down there for a fortnight, then you can come out for brief periods for the next month or so. After that, wash fruit and veg thoroughly to decontaminate. Don't eat the 6 legged cows.

Good luck :cool:

Edit: Excessive sideslip by No.2 finger

[Op Tastic]

I am on leave that day.

[SASless]

I am not too worried....the prevailing winds here are from the West....thus unless they hit the land of fruits, flakes, and nuts.....I am okay!

[Talking Radalt]

I am on leave that day.
Bollox. I'm Gd Cdr. :uhoh:

[Washington_Irving]

In a WALL STREET JOURNAL op-ed

Upon reading this, the appropriate Immediate Action Drill is to don a tinfoil hat and suspend all belief until reaching the the bottom of the page, at which time said page should be used to collect any and all dog faeces that may be on your lawn.

[neilmac]

Talking Radalt ur doomed call the standby guard in..........they may see ur reasoning......or not!

[Blacksheep]

If I was sitting on the target coordinates for a couple of hundred thermo-nuclear devices, I'd think twice about firing off one of my own. In the struggle between good and evil it can be difficult to work out which is which, but the universal general principle holds that Might is Right.

[SASless]

How does one deal with a "Suicide Bomber" with a Nuke?

"Might" might not work in that scenario.

[teeteringhead]

Winged horse? Yeah, right....bl:mad: dy 'ell ....

does that mean the Paras and 18 Sqn and 28 Sqn....

[boogie-nicey]

Yeah "winged horse" and now it's a regular at the Windsor Horse show :}

[green granite]

If I was sitting on the target coordinates for a couple of hundred thermo-nuclear devices, I'd think twice about firing off one of my own. In the struggle between good and evil it can be difficult to work out which is which, but the universal general principle holds that Might is Right.

Unfortuantly I don't think that Irans leaders think that way, nor will they worry about the death of a few million of their own in the retaliation thats bound to follow.

[Zoom]

August 22nd?? Why, that's the 521st anniversary of the Battle of Bosworth Field, which took place not a million miles from here. There will be a re-enactment of the battle, which is usually very realistic and energetic, and I suppose things might just get out of hand. I shall don my helmet and breastplate just in case, and leap onto a horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse...............etc. Definitely DEFCON 1.

[microlight AV8R]

Zoom ! I detect mockery in your post. Can't you see that we are having a serious discussion here.

[Navaleye]

I can't help feel that coalition attached the wrong arab country. Taking out Iran first would have been preferable.

[SASless]

Somehow I keep thinking France ought to have been a training stop on the way to Baghdad.

[Flatus Veteranus]

Why not go to "Condef 1" or whatever anytime Bush has a bowel movement?
I don't suppose that would make much difference to the pathetic remnants of our strategic forces. Why not send our man in Tehran around to tell to the current Ayatolah i/c that any WMD outrage on 22 Aug (or indeed any other day) will result in the obliteration of the following list of cities/shrines: Tehran, Mecca.... That's about what the Soviet ambo did in 1978.

More seriously, the Brit intelligence community used to maintain some sort of credibilty by acting as referee between the various warring factions among their US colleagues. I fear this was destroyed by various chiefs of our intel agencies allowing themselves and their organisations to be corrupted politically during the lead-in to Gulf 2.

If intel is to regain any sort of credibility, an international agency of "wise men" is needed to moderate the various agencies.

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

Let me get this straight. A Bernard from a big school in America reckons that, on 22/08/06, some unspecified 'Cataclysmic Events' are in the pipeline because of some quasi religious sudoku puzzle. The Mystical but Wily Oriental Gentlemen of Middle Eastebad have tickets for a "cosmic struggle" at the Flying Horse, near 2 hills outside Cambridge, all watched by some ****es. On the strength of that, we are all supposed to stock up the larder and stack some tinnies in; preferably under several feet of earth? I can't see where the MoD Contracts Form fits in, though.

I think I’m on leave that day as well.

[16 blades]

an international agency of "wise men"

That rules out the ultra-leftist, corrupt, Islampohillic, Anti-Semetic UN, then.

There is an easy way of ending Intra-national terrorism, forever. Unfortunately it takes big balls and political will, something that doesn't exist in the West anymore.

Every time a terrorist attack takes place, or Hizbollah fires an unguided rocket indiscriminately into Israel, or the Iranians / Syrians / whoever are found to be funding/arming a group such as Hizbollah, we vapourise a major city in an Islamic country.

Continue this until:
1) They get the message, or
2) There's none of them left.

Extreme? Certainly. Will it work? Of course it will. The alternative is to lock ourselves into a constant cycle of small-scale conflicts, each generating the next, that will most likely last the rest of this century and beyond, and kill just as many people if not more.

Notice how the Islamic world tends to make it it's business to intervene when it's 'brothers' in a completely different part of the world are being 'oppressed'. Until we see them as they see themselves, a unitary entity dedicated to the destruction of the Western way of life and supplanting it with worldwide religious fascism and legislated belief, and act accordingly, we will never achieve any degree of peace in this world.

16B

[microlight AV8R]

GBZ

Sounds like you're a party-pooper :rolleyes:

[Blacksheep]

How does one deal with a "Suicide Bomber" with a Nuke?
"Might" might not work in that scenario.The Might comes out in the afterrmath. New York is nuked today. Iran turns into a glass paved car park the following day. The question then is who are the good guys? The ones who get to write the history one supposes.

The worry with all these nutter states (Iran, North Korea etc.) is that they seem to thnik that a couple of fission warheads stuck on a souped up Scud turns them into a force to be reckoned with. The Cold War stayed cold because both sides had equal strength and nobody blinked. These Jihadi guys believe they are setting up Armageddon and that being the good guys, angels will ride in to whisk them off to paradise. They are dead set on having a scrap.

For the sake of international peace, they have to be made to understand that waving a nuke in your face is justification for a pre-emptive strike. Rather than that stupid invasion, perhaps "the coalition" should simply have nuked Baghdad to force the message home?





Its a good job I'm not the H of S of a nuclear power eh? You can see what that kind of thinking leads to... ;)

[Radar Muppet]

Blacksheep

Please, please tell us that your post was a piss-take.

[Captain Sand Dune]

Maybe August 22 is the scheduled date of their first nuclear weapons test. Remember the rhetoric leading up to Pakistans test?
In any case, the rhetoric coming out of Tehran is most probably for local consumption only. Got to be seen to be in control and acting tough in front of the "enemy". These types place a lot of store in that style of leadership.
The leaders of these places spend most of their time looking over their shoulders - and rightfully so, I reckon!

[SASless]

Perhaps if they do in fact test a nuke.....we should lob a large one onto othe exact same spot one hour afterwards and show them the difference between prototypes and tested devices. It's not like we would be contaminating "clean" ground or air....although it might "clear" the air somewhat, so to speak.

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

Notice how the Islamic world tends to make it it's business to intervene when it's 'brothers' in a completely different part of the world are being 'oppressed'. Until we see them as they see themselves, a unitary entity dedicated to the destruction of the Western way of life.

With you so far and you sum it up quite well. A country is just somewhere to live and true allegiance is to Islam

This bit needs a bit more thought, though:


Every time a terrorist attack takes place, or Hizbollah fires an unguided rocket indiscriminately into Israel, or the Iranians / Syrians / whoever are found to be funding/arming a group such as Hizbollah, we vapourise a major city in an Islamic country.

These people do not see suicide as a sin if it’s a sacrifice in the cause of their God. Following your solution, we may well "vapourise" Bradford, Burnley, Derby, Leeds, Leicester, Luton etc. I'm not sure I like my curry that hot!

[Captain Sand Dune]

Originally Posted by 16 blades
Every time a terrorist attack takes place, or Hizbollah fires an unguided rocket indiscriminately into Israel, or the Iranians / Syrians / whoever are found to be funding/arming a group such as Hizbollah, we vapourise a major city in an Islamic country.

A little harsh, but basically true. Diplomacy and negotiation is seen as weakness when dealing with these nutters.

[FormerFlake]

Should we order DEFCON 1 for August 22nd?

Well that would mean changing the light bulb.

[BANANASBANANAS]

Well, Given all the hullabalu that is going on at UK airports at the moment I would say that was a pretty good call and we should all be bloody careful for the next couple of weeks.

Not looking forward to my next (civvy) trip AMS/JFK one little bit.:ugh:

[Carry0nLuggage]

Well I hope they keep the noise down! I think I'll be overhead and asleep around 0001 local. :uhoh:

[Sunfish]

I strongly suggest that before you post these opinion pieces, you check the internet for the background of the writer.

Bernard Lewis is Jewish, a great supporter of Israel and a scholar of Arabic affairs. However one can hardly claim him as an unbiased commentator.

It is no secret that Israel would desperately like to see America bomb Iran, because it would further entangle America in the region and stop them from disengaging from Israel.

[tablet_eraser]

The way I see it, these days there’s a war on, right and, ages ago, there wasn’t a war on, right? So, there must have been a moment when there not being a war on went away, right, and there being a war on came along. So, what I want to know is: How did we get from the one case of affairs to the other case of affairs?

I heard it was because a bin liner blew up a twin's trousers and then a sad man who stains got caught in a rack.

Would you like to hear my war poem? It's called "The Iranian Bombs".

Boom boom boom boom....

:ok:

[steamchicken]

I remember Bernard Lewis explaining to everyone how "ver Arab mind" meant that if we invaded Iraq, they would be so impressed with our might that it would all be roses, pretty girls, cheap fuel and democracy from Marrakesh to Lombok.

Personally, I think "deciding whether or not to launch a war of choice in the most politically unstable place on earth on top of 60% of the world's oil reserves or some such" is a career-critical function.

The CIA's official estimate, I believe, has Iran 10 years from a nuclear bomb. They base this on the opinions of nuclear engineers and overhead-imagery interpreters. I think I'll take that over Lewis's crystal balls.

[Ali Barber]

The Prophet's ascension (PBUH) is a public holiday in the Arabic world, so I doubt very much whether anything will happen!!!

[Almost_done]

The Prophet's ascension (PBUH) is a public holiday in the Arabic world, so I doubt very much whether anything will happen!!!

Now didn't that logic work during the 'Yom Kippur' War and the TeT offensive?

[Hilife]

Oh I do like a happy ending, especially as I’m off to see the Rolling Stones that day and I’d hate to think that all of London was in a rush to get out of the city whilst I was trying to get in.