8 year old predicts crash

[pulse1]

According to the BBC, an 8 year old boy predicted that a Cessna 172 he was due to fly in at Popham would crash. It did and, fortunately, no-one was badly hurt.

How would you react if one of your passengers made a similar prediction?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/hampshire/5236036.stm

[Captain Airclues]

How would you react if one of your passengers made a similar prediction?

Probably have another look at my weight and balance calculation.

Airclues

['Chuffer' Dandridge]

According to the BBC, an 8 year old boy predicted that a Cessna 172 he was due to fly in at Popham would crash.

I thought it was a Piper Tri-Pacer, G-ARCC...? But then nowehere in the BBC report does it mention the type. But hey, all 4 seat light aircraft are C.172s aren't they?

[Felix Saddler]

Complete coincidence! :eek:

[FakePilot]

If he'd gotten it wrong we wouldn't have heard of it.

[Felix Saddler]

I wonder how many people who are scared to fly say this before they board an aircraft! We never hear their stories!!!

[Felix Saddler]

Ah, you beat me to it Fake Pilot!!

[Mercenary Pilot]

Anyone seen "Final Destination"... :E:E:E

[Felix Saddler]

yeah its s**t :eek:

[Felix Saddler]

MP, I'll hold you responsible if anything usual becomes aparent! :E

[Phororhacos]

My passengers always say "We're going to crash," when we line up, and always scream "We're all going to die" when on final approach. I thought this was normal.:confused:

[Maxflyer]

Get me his phone number, I want him to give me six numbers between one and 49!

[Hairyplane]

My mates wife sits in the back with her hands over her face and enters some sort of trance until we tell her we've landed. You cant speak to her - nothing.

I can't resist saying to her afterwards 'Did you enjoy that?'

HP

[Captain Airclues]

Does anyone know which runway they used for the take-off at Popham?

Airclues

[Fliegel]

Hah that kid, theres a pic of him in the national papers, hes very excited and pointing at the upturned wreck- hell it could have been tragic but thank god it wasnt. Heres a link for anyone who fancies a view:

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006350429,00.html

[enq]

So what was the elapsed time between the 8 year old making the prediction then switching off the mags and hiding the keys?

[Sedbergh]

See the Daily Mail managed to get in the word "plummet" No mention of hero pilot avoiding school etc etc

[Pitts2112]

Funny that. There wasn't any press at the scene at all. I wonder how much the survivors got for their story...


Pitts2112

[ultimatepro63]

Anyone seen the film final destination ? :}

[Captain Airclues]

I owned a share of G-ARCC in 2000. When I examined the weight and balance figures, I discovered that a previous change in the datum position had not been reflected in the latest graphs, which made it difficult to check the balance. By applying a correction to the datum position I was able to come up with a calculation. It was a well run group so I'm sure that they would have corrected this, and pointed it out to the other group members.
Looking at the tables, I was aware that it would be posible to exceed the aft Cof G limit but I checked the figures for two adults in the front seats for all fuel loads and only ever flew it in this configuration. The photo in the Sun shows the child in the front seat with presumably the two adults in the rear seats. I'm sure that the pilot checked the aft limit, but it must have been very close. If this was the case then the pilot did a good job in avoiding fatalities if his engine failed on take-off.
I was also concerned about the aircrafts performance on runway 21, which is why I asked the question on this thread. The aircraft is certified with a maximum gradient of two degrees. I was unable to find out the gradient of runway 21 (even asked on PPRuNe) so, with a 50 screen height the performance calculations would need careful consideration if this was the runway in use.

Airclues

[gasax]

I have flown a friend's Pa22 quite extensively. After the rebuild and weighing we complied an excel weight and balance chart which allowed rapid checking of all the possible parameters.

Interestingly it was impossible to exceed the aft limit if there was 200lbs in the front seats - and this aircraft had the extra rear fuel tank. In other words if you could get the doors to close, had one fat boy in the front and were under 2000lbs weight and balance was not an issue.

Neither was take off performance, light it leap into the air, heavy it flew like your typical spamcan.

But like all light aircraft it didn't like the heat. We transited through Popham on a very hot day at mauw and there was none of the usual rocket like performance. But it is plenty long enough - however with some loss of power or turbulence it would require a steady nerve and confidence.

Be interesting to see what the cause is determined as.

[FBS]

Interesting to note that none of the people who witnessed the crash heard anything unusual in the engine note. They did see plenty of other clues.
The ATC guy dialled 999 before it hit the ground and at least two people were running towards it well before it hit. An AAIB inspector was on the airfield at the time.

The people on the ground at Popham were superb and the folks inside were lucky. However, the passenger is very unlikely to be welcomed into Popham again after selling his photos and sensationalist story.

[Squat-thrust]

But like all light aircraft it didn't like the heat. We transited through Popham on a very hot day at mauw and there was none of the usual rocket like performance. But it is plenty long enough - however with some loss of power or turbulence it would require a steady nerve and confidence.
Be interesting to see what the cause is determined as.

I fully agree about the heat we have been having at the moment, myself and a friend flew out in a PA38 via RW 21 at Popham a few days before the accident.
The temp was around 33 and we noticed a reduction in our normal performance, our weight and balance was fine. We cleared the trees beyond 21, but there was a brief anxious moment that we thought we might 'brush our ass' on the trees:mad:

[Mike Cross]

In the current weather there's an additional hazard.

Nice hot day, not much wind. All of a sudden a thermal lifts off and you have a very localised change in wind direction which could turn your 5 kt headwind into a tailwind.

Mike

[Captain Airclues]

our weight and balance was fine.

At last, someone who can answer my question. What is the gradient of runway 21?

[Pitts2112]

At last, someone who can answer my question. What is the gradient of runway 21?

I don't know the exact runway gradient but in that direction and for the amount he was on the ground or in ground effect, it's downhill.

Pitts2112

[FBS]

No Pitts2112, he is asking a general question about 21, the Tripacer failed to fly from 26.

[Pitts2112]

No Pitts2112, he is asking a general question about 21, the Tripacer failed to fly from 26.

Oh, right. Good point. Sorry, got lost in the details.

Sorry, but I don't know the exact slope. Why not give them a call?

01256 397733

All I know is that the slope on the approach end of 03 seems to exactly match the descent angle of my Pitts. I just seem to float forever on that d*&n runway just feeling for the ground....

Pitts2112

[scottish_ppl]

The people on the ground at Popham were superb and the folks inside were lucky. However, the passenger is very unlikely to be welcomed into Popham again after selling his photos and sensationalist story.

Having seen the photos I would say this is one passenger that is fully entitled to tell his story as sensationally as he likes, to whoever he likes...

[Mike Cross]

We cleared the trees beyond 21, but there was a brief anxious moment that we thought we might 'brush our ass' on the trees

Do what the rest of us do, hang a right at the end of the runway and exit along 26. On the other hand, if you're offering to strim the trees for us......:E

[Pitts2112]

Having seen the photos I would say this is one passenger that is fully entitled to tell his story as sensationally as he likes, to whoever he likes...

Sure, everyone has that right, but it still makes him a self-centered &%*@%. He made some money out of the deal but didn't think at all about the negative publicity it created for:
General Aviation overall
Popham airfield which kindly hosted him and looked after him and his family
His mate who was flying the airplane
The group of owners of the aircraft

Every right to do it. Still seems a very low-rent thing to do and he'll get very short shrift from me if he comes up to the field again.

Pitts2112

[pulse1]

Perhaps he has contributed any revenue from this publicity towards the cost of replacing the aeroplane. If it was out of limits on take off performance it is unlikely that the insurance company will contribute.

[Captb747]

Of course he could have done something quite simple in forgetting to turn the fuel on...........And before anyone says that its impossible........Its not

[Pitts2112]

Of course he could have done something quite simple in forgetting to turn the fuel on...........And before anyone says that its impossible........Its not

Except that the engine sounded to be running perfectly normally right up to the abrupt stop when it hit the ground.

But could it have been a mere oversight on a checklist item as opposed to gross incompetence on behalf of the pilot as some would suggest? There would certainly be that possibility. That's the kind of issue we wait for the AAIB report to tell us.

Pitts2112

[Mike Cross]

Or it could be as simple as hauling it off and staggering along on the back of the drag curve with the airspeed reducing until it fell out of the sky.

None of us know the answer but if you want to speculate on why an aircraft within w&b limitations and fully serviceable fails to get away from the field that's one of them. Another would be localised windshear, caused for example by a thermal lifting off as alluded to earlier. In stronger wind conditions it could be turbulence of nearby obstructions that does it. It could be flying too close to the critical AoA so that it stalls in a gust.

All speculation as to the cause of course, and barring any evidence of mechanical failure the AAIB report is likely to to end up offering an opinion as to the factors that may have contributed rather than a definitive cause.

[Captb747]

Yes absolutely correct. Speculation at this stage does not get anyone anywhere. Real Shame though. Enjoyed many trips to Sandown and Compton Abbas in CC along with IJ and PZ.........(when PZ was around)

[Monocock]

Popham is undoubtedly the best all round airfiled in the UK.

Any non-flying individuals who choose to shine a dark light on it for financial gain should walk the plank as far as I'm concerned.

Thousands of flyers pass through its visitors book annually. Some fly well. Some fly badly. Some can't fly for toffee. They all choose to visit though and make it what it is. Having Popham Airfield in the red-tops first five pages for bad reasons made my heart sink the morning after the incident.

If I went as a first time visitor to a Erotica event and sold my pictures to The Sun I would expect a bunch of perverts to chase me for my actions.....

[Pitts2112]

If I went as a first time visitor to a Erotica event and sold my pictures to The Sun I would expect a bunch of perverts to chase me for my actions.....

Come on, Mono. You know the rules - no blatant advertising here on PPrune!! :)

Pitts2112

[Captb747]

Well said Monocock, I absolutely agree with you. Popham is by far the most friendly and inviting airfield I have ever visited. for my own reasons it will always hold a special place in my heart..........As will CC IL and PZ...Cheers :)