UK Defence Procurement 'crunch' coming

[Lazer-Hound]

http://aviationnow.com/avnow/news/channel_awst_story.jsp?id=news/aw071706p2.xml

[500days2do]

Yet again we see the difference in thinking.What we would 'like' and what we 'really need' are poles apart. I still feel that the top brass are playing war games in the states with their interest in procurement.Sadly they aren't focussed on what is really needed in the 'east' and what we need to protect and supply our men on the ground out there. I think the retired 'Irish' officer had a good point when he said disband the Airforce.What is really needed is a 'Home Office' style cull of R.A.F. topbrass. To many of them are feathering their nest,CAS included, and sorting out their next job before retiring instead of getting the kit we really need.

Rant over.
5d2d

[Gaz ED]

Nasty man!:=

[BEagle]

The article only seems to cover the pointy-toys. Not much about the ageing FunBus, C130K etc - the aircraft which are always first to be called on when Bliar embarks on more Bush bum-licking.

When is FSTA going to happen?

When is Nimrod Y2K going to happen?

What will replace the PR9?

And RW aircraft......??

[South Bound]

Personally I am just interested in when someone is going to make a decision about what to cut. We have known about this problem for at least 5 years through the EP process and it is clear something has to give. Whatever is cut will leave a hole, possibly a reduced capability somewhere, but the longer we leave it the worse the issue will be and the less time the guys will have to sort an alternative/compromise.

Although IIRC the 'bow-wave' problem was caused by already committed funds and there was nothing that could be done to lower it except cut manpower. All the talk of cutting programmes made little difference to the the problem year/years, so that is possibly why nothing has been done so far.

[tucumseh]

SB

I understand the main decisions have been made long ago. They are known within DPA and more will become clear following the current plethora of "Industry days" in MoD. While projects may not actually be cancelled, the cuts will be spun as incremental acquisition, stretching the timescale, reducing performance (capability) and cutting numbers. In fact, all the things MoD have been criticised for by various committees, who rightly say they hide the real problems. What will not happen is a Home Office style cull of the most incompetent staffs, or those who practice or condone deliberate waste. Although one can hope.

[Bluntend]

While projects may not actually be cancelled, the cuts will be spun as incremental acquisition, stretching the timescale, reducing performance (capability) and cutting numbers...

I agree, what is more likely to happen is negotiaions with Industry will take place whereby the MOD will ask for what they want and industry will reply with how much that will cost. Because it will cost more than the MOD can afford, things have to be shaved off here and there. As a result rather than get the all singing all dancing 'solution', you get something that is barely better than what is already in place, at a cost, and probably late. The Adour Mk 106 'upgrade' is a good example of this.

[giblets]

When is Nimrod Y2K going to happen?


Well thats one we will know,
wonder if Bliars jet will take quite as long to sort out?

[GlosMikeP]

I agree, what is more likely to happen is negotiaions with Industry will take place whereby the MOD will ask for what they want and industry will reply with how much that will cost. Because it will cost more than the MOD can afford, things have to be shaved off here and there. As a result rather than get the all singing all dancing 'solution', you get something that is barely better than what is already in place, at a cost, and probably late. The Adour Mk 106 'upgrade' is a good example of this.

You've hit the essential point here. Looking from the outside in as I do these days (thank heavens!) everything points to MOD being utterly bankrupt. There simply isn't the budget available to buy even the essentials, and it's high time those with 3 and 4 stars said so very loudly upwards. I think taking hard steps like that with difficult messages is what is (or used to be) called leadership. All the chair shuffling and searching for economies costs money, too - and it doesn't buy so much as a bullet or a boot, let alone a CVF, MASC or any other future capability.:sad:

[Not_a_boffin]

Here's a novel idea for the brass. Instead of endless attempts to get a quart out of a pint pot through deferments, SEMs, reduced upkeep periods etc, why not try and get some real extra funding (EP and STP) for what is needed.

The MoD is the only government department that has actually met its "performance agreements" (and MORE!) since this shower of sh1t got in 10 years ago. People have given their lives for this and what do their comrades get in return? More cuts, less support and more ops!

Every other department has had taxpayers money showered on it, including £8Bn for the developing world to make Gordon look cuddly rather than someone who frightens the children. Education - failing. Health service - billions wasted. Home Office - form an orderly queue! Is it too much to ask to put an extra £3bn pa into the EP/STP for five years or so?

[SirToppamHat]

Per Ardua Ad Bankruptcy.

Decisions are being made not by military people with an eye on operational capability, but by command secretariat staffs only savings in mind. Trouble is, these 'high-level' decisions frequently don't take into account the whole picture, so that their cancellations frequently cost more than letting existing plans come to fruition.

It's a situation strangely similar to Downing Street. The Prime Minister is supposedly in charge, but Brown holds the purse strings so whatever he decides can effectively be overruled by someone who is, in theory, junior to him.

STH

[GlosMikeP]

Per Ardua Ad Bankruptcy

It pains me to say so but the work 'bankruptcy' seems to be on everyone's lips at the moment; certainly it's a topic of wide conversation.

You can see the day rates MOD will pay going down, which means the high-end advice is moving (ahem, largely has moved) away to other markets that do pay sensibly.

There was some room for rationalisation of course, but it's gone to the point now where it's adding acquisition risk and so driving costs up, not down. The trouble is, no one seems overtly concerned which means the services are getting the worst of everything, and hassle beyond belief into the bargain.

[FormerFlake]

Quote: Jim Hacker:

"The three articles of Civil Service (MOD) faith: it takes longer to do things quickly, it's more expensive to do them cheaply and it's more democratic to do them in secret."

[tablet_eraser]

Hmm. All sounds strangely like the rumoured September cuts, but I guess we'll have to wait and see. There was a dining-in night at a secret base in Northumberland earlier this year (I think SirToppamHat was there too) where AOC 3 Gp was warning us to be prepared for "hard times ahead". It's not the last time people have heard this line from Their Airships. I do get the feeling we're going to feel the axe again soon.

Our problem is a weak-minded PM beholden to someone who he may or may not have made a promise to, and not having the guts to do what is right instead of what is easy. Right - tell the Chancellor to pi$$ off, since he should not dictate Defence Policy. Easy - let the Treasury steamroller over the MoD, cutting jobs, ac, ships, tanks, bases, support, infrastructure, training areas, catering, capability, budgets, etc etc etc, willy nilly so that it can shovel piles of money into the Health Budget Vortex. What a sick betrayal of the taxpayer.

[dallas]

If there are more cuts coming I read it as a good thing. Not even Tony is short-sighted enough to cut the forces further in the autumn if the much rumoured hidden agenda is to suck Iran into a fight.

There's still lots of fat in the military - you can see that every time they troop the colour, fly 30 jets over London or review the albeit smaller fleet over a 4 hour period. The problem is the pinch points simply can't take much more pinching, while other areas could afford to pinch several more inches yet. We just need the classic 'someone' to start making some tough decisions rather than relying on everyone to just work even harder with less, for less.

[Almost_done]

If there are more cuts coming I read it as a good thing.
There's still lots of fat in the military

Where I work work we are being forced to do more with less all the time and we are very LEAN no fat here, I'd like to see your idea of pinch points!!!!!

[FormerFlake]

There are certainly areas that have either a lot of waste, or do not acheive all that much in real terms. However, if they cut from an area that is not strictly needed/useful, you can garuntee the saved money will not be spent where it is 100% needed.

What they need to do is spend now, to save later. Fat chance of that happening.:ugh:

[tablet_eraser]

Trooping the Colour... are you suggesting that ALL of the guards regiments should be deployed ALL of the time? RN fleet reviews - should we NEVER have enough ships in the UK for such a review? Flypasts - should we never have enough aircraft for a flypast?

These are too superficial to be described as "fat". They are excellent PR for the Forces, and probably repay their value to the country through tourism and recruitment. Please don't even hint at ditching them! Hoon already tried to get rid of 90% of bandsmen / stretcher bearers a few years back. Where will it all end?