Amount of UK cpl's issued each year.

[GgW]

I came across this caa link in another forum for pilots.

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/srg_fcl_LRIssues_2004_05.pdf

The way I understand this document is that 963 new cpl's where issued last year in the UK. So the obvious 963 low hour pilots started to search for jobs. I know my next question is a shot in the dark, but does anybody know , more or less how many pilots retire each year. Just wants to do the math's.

I am doing groundschool at the moment, done the hourbuilding, but as most of you the '' Will I get a job ?'' question starts. Looks like if there is a lot of wannebees.:uhoh:

[Superpilot]

Bloody good question!!!

[AlexL]

Its a question oft asked, and I'm not sure anybody really knows the answer.

According to that same piece of paper, only 154 of those 963 CPLs had IR's attached, which I find hard to believe, but thats what the stats say.
The fATPL is a CPL and IR, so only that 154 will be looking for airline type jobs. This is at odds with the established idea that 'thousands' are coming out of the training system each year.

<<edit: You may find that the figure shows IR's that were issued by the UK CAA. With the Spanish option of not paying something in the order of £2,000 to take the flight test alone, I can see the figures for UK issues being even lower in the coming years.>>

[flyfish]

This table is a bemusing one to interpret. The I//R figures for instance show only 154 issues attached to the CPL/A. I guess as the CAA is producing it, it must be right, but I find it a difficult figure to swallow.
Canfield test centre for instance alone does, (I am making an assumption here based on my limited visits there) 2 tests per day 5 days a week, that’s 520 tests per year. Even if you half that figure to allow for failures, retakes, weather etc, it’s still a lot more than 154 and that’s only one test centre!
Not to sure on the retirement figures, but I think the less the better at the moment.
Strange statement I know, but here is my non experienced thinking on the subject.
The people likely to be retiring are those with the training qualifications and those are the people in demand. In the current climate, with continued fleet growth and apparent opportunities for low houred pilots, the hold up for many is likely to be lack of training pilots.
So the question we need to ask is when will the market begin to stagnate, and when will airlines stop buying new aircraft, as those are much more likely to have an effect on new hire demands rather than retirements.
Those are my thoughts, ready to be shot down for not reading the table correctly.
Flyfish

sorry AlexL, similar post to yours, you beat me to it.

[LFS]

The only thing I can guess is that if you apply for a CPL/IR at the same time this just goes down in the stats as a CPL application and the 154 represents people who have subsequently attached an IR to their licence be it CPL or PPL.

[GgW]

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/srg_fcl_LRIssues_2003_04.pdf

I have found the previous year's one aswell.
866 cpl's where issued thus an increse of 97 more in 2004 and 2005. Roughly a 10% (10!@#$%) increase in new pilots. But I am still positive, not enough for me to through the towel in yet.

[Leezyjet]

I read somewhere (forget where now) that thew worldwide reqirements for pilots between now and 2024 will be around 17,700 per annum. This was only based on the number of new a/c expected to be ordered between now and then, which will effectively be a doubling of the commercial a/c fleet, and was not taking retirements into consideration.

Now I'm not sure how many people globally are going through the "system", so don't know how well those figures compute, but should give an idea of the projected requirements.

:hmm:

[boogie-nicey]

Don't get too wrapped up in stats, they can be used to paint, illustrate or perpetuate all many of different interpretations. The issue is and always will be does the airline have any vacancies suitable for you? Whether you are the only one getting the job or one of thousands should matter little to you.

Another misuse or misconstrued use of stats is the FTOs themselves... "thousands of pilots required next year", "massive retirements occuring soon", etc.... just like a car salesman, it's got everything and just one lady owner, same old story......

Keep on eye on these stats as a general picture that appears "somewhat interesting", but don't start trying to make head nor tail of it. I'm sure as wannabes you've got far better things to be investing your time in :)

Good luck to you all, Boogie's rooting for 'ya ... :ok:

[High Wing Drifter]

AlexL,

My interpretation is that only 154 people applied for IRs independantly. The remainder applied for their CPL with the IR box ticked.

[GusHoneybun]

It seems the number of ATPL's being issued each year is greater than the number of CPL's. Most of these new ATPL's will have trained a few years ago. So in theory, there are less low hour CPL pilots these days than compared to 3 years ago.
Mind you, 86.2% of all statistics are made up.