Shortage of Pilots

[1DC]

If this is the wrong forum please put in the right one..

Read yesterday that whilst their isn't a shortage of pilots at the moment their will be in the next few years due to airline expansion. If this is the case who will lose out? The majors or the low cost carriers? Will pilots all move to the airlines with the best reputations or just to the best payers??
Just wondered!

[Pirate]

Whenever the pilot demand exceeds the supply, pilots migrate. Younger ones with mortgages etc. tend to go to big payers, older ones tend to opt for the better lifestyle option. A generalisation, of course, and the differences between carriers in terms of the lifestyle offered is probably less marked than it was during the last shortage.

It isn't the job it used to be, but then it never was!

[HZ123]

The media comes up with this subject regularly and there is always no shortage of applicants. Sometimes the shortage is on the type rating.

[mightymouse111]

It always amuses me when I hear that there is (or will be) a shortage of pilots.
I do not believe it for a minute, not in this era.

The training schools are again busy, more and more indivduals are paying for there own training, esp as its comparatively cheaper than before (eg USA etc)
The airlines have hundreds and hundreds of CV's (BACX Application > 1300)
Still more and more students are coming out the schools and adding to the growing list of unemployed pilots.
Many have opted for a TR but still cannot find employment. The SSTR courses are full.

I always think that the training schools will tell you that there will be a shortage to snatch the cheque out of your hand!

If there is going to be a shortage in the future, it may be in experienced pilots, then I think the airlines have themselves to blame for not having a proper structure in place whereby they take their fair share of student/graduate pilots.

Its a bit like a football club, that has no youth set up and only buys in the best players, eventually you get to a point where you go out of business because you cannot afford any more. The best teams (except for ££££Chelski) are those will excellent youth structures. This is the same in any other industry, companies recuit graduates because they are the companies future!

I would suggest that airlines need to take the blinkers off and throw out the phrase 'this is aviation, we are different to other businesses'! and start to re-structure for the future in a sensible manner, thereby utilising all the resourses available to them.

[BlueVolta]

The stories about shortage of pilots are coming out from time to time...
There is a shortage of qualified pilots, and even there you have to make a difference between captains and FO... There are plenty of captains jobs coming but if you are FO with the hours required but not yet captain you cannot find so many opportunities.
After that there are different "aviations", business, major, commuter, contract, charter are all different in many aspects and jumping from one to the other is not easy.
The problem with newly rated pilots is that many of them dream about the Jumbo's or 777 and when they realise that to get there it may take ages, time has passed, they haven't flown a lot, and are out of the loop. So companies have 1000 CV but how many immediatelly suitable not so much!

[BizJetJock]

Often the shortages come about because the airlines ignore all the warnings. They look at the 1000 CV's on the desk and say "we only need a couple of hundred, so what shortage?" Then when they come to call these guys they find that since the same 1000 CV's were on everybody else's desks as well, the reply is "no thanks, I've already got a job"
Things go round the same old cycle over and over again - it won't be long before the airlines are cold calling schools looking to poach instructors as well as scoop up students as soon as they graduate. Sadly it then won't be long after that that so many people will have jumped on the bandwagon that there will be a surplus again. Ah well....

[Abbeville]

BIZJETJOCK

You are right on the money

[Junkflyer]

It sounds like advertising bs. There's always too many applicants not enough jobs. The only shortage there ever that ever comes is highly experienced pilots.

[CanAV8R]

The term pilot shortage comes up from time to time but it may come true in the not so distant future. The MASSIVE expansion in China/India not to mention the growth in the western world are creating plenty of jobs. It takes a pilot a minimum from the begining of training to left seat in an airliner of seven years. Add to this a glut of retirements in the next 5-10 and you can count on the industry on the whole being short of experience.

I had the DFO of a respectable company in the UK say to me in the last week, we simply can not recruit FO's with more than 200 hours. The CP of a large UK carrier was quoted as saying that things for pilots will get better in the not so distant future.

There will always be more than enough people to fill seats of flight decks. The big question is what experience level companies want and can they maintain it.

[Docfly]

Interesting short article in yesterday's Telegraph.
See: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2005/11/28/cnpilots28.xml

[Stpaul]

Again its airlines after experienced pilots. Why do they not invest in their own future and recruit them early. This also breeds loyalty.

[scroggs]

The Telegraph article is padding, nothing more. It takes a possibility that demand for pilots in Asia will affect the European market in future and presents it as current 'fact'. There certainly has not been any effect on UK or European airline pay scales, which are still rising at inflation or less.

Pilot shortages in UK are the FTO marketing man's dream, but they've never happened yet. There are far too many of you out there desperate to thrust ever-more outrageous amounts of money at FTOs and TRTOs for there ever to be a pilot shortage here. That seems unlikely to change.

As ever, where there is a pilot shortage is in experienced, available, training and senior line pilots who, not surprisingly, are reluctant to leave their current secure employment to go chasing jobs in far-flung parts of the world.

Scroggs

[Flopsie]

It is now widely recognised by the industry that there will definitely be a pilot shortage in the future -when and by how much depends on whose statistics you look at. But the "experts" firmly predict that future demand exceeds the supply and by any interpretation, that is a shortage. Indeed,the EATS (European Aviation Training Symposium) held in Amsterdam recently, acknowledged this and some idea of the predicted shortfall in numbers can be found at:

http://www.halldalemedia.co.uk/eats2005/proceedings.htm

"Implicatons of the Demand for Pilots" - Paul Hinton

Again, this is just one set of statistics but as mentioned before, all predict the same outcome. The impending introduction of the MPL (mid 2006) is just one of the means that the airlines intend to utilise to overcome the forecast shortage. Scroggs is quite right and European FTOs can most likely meet the demand but the booming markets in Turkey, India and China are demanding numbers far in excess of the output of present FTOs. The future is looking bright for "suitably qualified" pilots.....

[BizJetJock]

Scroggs,
I don't know how long you've been in this business, but I certainly have first hand knowledge of major airlines (Britannia, BMI etc) cold calling flying clubs asking if any of the instructors or members are getting close to having the hours for a CPL (old system), sponsorship available. If that doesn't constitute a shortage then I'm not sure what does...

[scroggs]

One of the dangers of this kind of speculation is that it assumes a constant increase in the demand for aviation worldwide, and rarely considers historical variations and hiccups. Like politicians, statisticians like to feel that the current trend is the way it will always be.

There is no doubt that the demand for aviation in China and India will increase substantially in the short and medium term. However, the provision of infrastructure in both countries lags the airline entrepreneurs' ambitions, and will limit the rate of expansion considerably. I have a growing conviction that environmental concerns will limit expansion in the developed world quite a lot more than government predictions currently assume, and will catch up with the developing world in the not too distant future.

Both of these factors will, I believe, produce a very different airline expansion curve than those currently predicated by many 'expert' observers. However, the training industry will likely expand its capacity to allow for the most optimistic predictions, as it has in the past; this, of course, will prove fatal for some schools!

Over and above these factors, these predictions assume continuing, and even (in some studies) accelerating growth in the world economy. I am by no means convinced that this will be the case. Aviation is particularly sensitive to quite minor variations in economic confidence, and the results can be catatrophic for many in the industry. The reactions to consumer spending reining-in in 1987, 1991 and 2001 are just three of many downswings that have affected the industry quite disproportionately in the past. There are several indicators that suggest the world economy may soon enter a period of stagnation and, depending on the outlook for oil and its potential substitutes, could go into recession in two to three years' time. It's happened before and will again.

What does all this mean? Probably that the training industry will, once again, gear up to maximum output just at the time when the bottom falls out of the market. For those who get in in the years preceding the downturn, it won't be too bad. For those graduating, or entering training at or after the downturn, life will be tough - just ask those guys who were in that position in 2001!

It might happen next year, it might not happen for 5 years - but it will happen. When it does, yet again the stories of potential pilot shortages will be viewed with a withering eye...

Scroggs

posted 29th November 2005 17:09 Scroggs, I don\'t know how long you\'ve been in this business, but I certainly have first hand knowledge of major airlines (Britannia, BMI etc) cold calling flying clubs asking if any of the instructors or members are getting close to having the hours for a CPL (old system), sponsorship available. If that doesn\'t constitute a shortage then I\'m not sure what does...

That\'s good to hear, and will be encouraging for those currently in a position to be picked up by these airlines. However, at the recruiting end I can assure you that we are still overwhelmed with applications from people we will never use. Doesn\'t look like a shortage from where I stand, though I acknowledge that it\'s getting more difficult to find experienced A340 pilots...

Scroggs

[Flopsie]

Good point well made Scroggs and I can't argue against that but the FTOs have to flow about 15-16 months ahead of the market. The market by all accounts, is predicting expansion and this presently being reflected in the increased interest from many airlines in ab-initio training programs. The aviation industry runs very close to the edge and is perhaps affected more than any other industry by political, economic and social "downturns" but it always springs back. It's taken 4 years to recover from 9/11 - next time it may not take so long, but as long as the increasing demand for air travel exists, there will be a shortage of qualified pilots. There will always be a risk that the bottom falls out of the market and this is part of the risk assessment for FTO development but if the market demands, the FTOs must supply.

[Mr R Sole]

Interesting to read in the back of Flight that easyJet have stated that they have changed the experience requirements for joining.

After looking at their webiste...

Recently we’ve been looking for pilots with a minimum of 1,500 hours, but as a result of the feedback we have received, we will be relaxing this requirement, in favour of placing more emphasis on “quality” of hours achieved.

I can only read in between the lines and see that easyJet are strating to feel the pinch?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Hours requirements are dropping at nearly all airlines and it started as far as 18 months back. Lately it has accelerated.

This is one of the few 'Hard' indicators of the pilot hiring market. There are loads of more anecdotal "My mate got two offers last week" indicators around. Yet seeing published printed hours requirements is one of the clearest measures by which to judge the market.

I honestly think airline recruiting departments see a stack of CV's 2000 thick and conclude there is plenty of supply. Only to be taken aback by the fact those same 2000 CVs are on every other airlines desk as well. Suddenly they find 7 out of 10 have got an offer elsewhere or are no longer interested.

There will be several themes in the coming year or two:

Non-UK nationals may return to their home country as jobs there become available once again, i.e. the Sep12th tidal wave of unemployed pilots may leak back across the channel.

Some experienced pilots will be lured into the world of contracting on the international market and leave their UK based positions.

Pilots will continue to retire or lose their medicals at a time when nearly every airline has expansion plans and nobody looks like going bust. Ryanair and easyJet alone have a requirement for circa 400 pilots next year. I can't think of a brandname airline that isn't going to recruit in 2006.

There probably aren't enough people desperate enough to pay for their own type ratings and once their aren't then that chapter will close. Nobody is going to stump up £20k to secure a job which last week was given to someone without a type rating. Either you can satisfy ALL your recruitment with a paid for type rating clause or you can't put it in ANY contract.

So, the worm is turning.

Good luck, this is the right time to be getting into commercial flying. And in this industry it had ALWAYS been the case that timing was everything.

WWW

[EGBKFLYER]

Just in case anyone gets too excited about the Easyjet 'relaxation' that Mr Sole speaks of, it applies only to Total Time. The requirement for at least 500 hours in a multi-crew commercial environment still applies (which in my view actually won't change things much).

For me, this just backs up what others are saying - there is a shortage of experienced pilots but not for the low timers...

[High Wing Drifter]

Probably that the training industry will, once again, gear up to maximum output just at the time when the bottom falls out of the market.
Remind me what PIO means again :\

[Pirate]

Heigh Ho. Maybe there's a chance for us over- 50 pilots. My feeling is that we get weeded by an electronic age filter on the on-line applications, so our considerable experience never gets seen by a human being. Maybe I'm just an old(ish) cynic!

[Mr R Sole]

EGBKFLYER

Just in case anyone gets too excited about the Easyjet 'relaxation' that Mr Sole speaks of, it applies only to Total Time. The requirement for at least 500 hours in a multi-crew commercial environment still applies (which in my view actually won't change things much).

For me, this just backs up what others are saying - there is a shortage of experienced pilots but not for the low timers...

If I try and put myself back into your shoes - I agree it does not help in the great scheme of things. However it is a positive sign that things are moving in the right direction. The days of long turboprop apprenticeaships are over and career progression can be quick. 500 hours nowadays on a commercial type is a figure that will probably be achieved in a year and probably exceeded. I would not regard someone with 500 hrs commercial time as being experienced!

That's if you want to work for easyJet... that would actually mean I would have to work! ;)

[captbod]

Having recently recieved an E-mail from easyjet saying I did not meet their current requirements I am a little confused by their announcement regarding a reduction in their requirements.

I have 1600+ hrs multi crew turboprop including command time however I am 42. Does anyone know whether age is an issue with easyjet?

Many thanks

CB

[scroggs]

I don't really want this thread to get diverted into specific cases, as this is an interesting topic worthy of discussion. I don't know what EZ's age limits are (if any), but I suspect they're fairly flexible at the moment! No doubt WWW can comment further.

As WWW suggest earlier, the next 12 to 18 months are likely to be the best in this cycle for ab-initio pilot recruitment. If the upswing continues we may well see a temporary end to SSTRs, but - and be certain about this - they will return as soon as the market softens. It seems to me that in each cycle we lose a little more financial ground to the employers, and although the cycle has peaks where things look quite good, each peak is less good (from the financial point of view of the Wannabe) than the last. However, we might be lucky and enjoy a sustained period of growth that could force the airlines to think more long-term and start thinking about pilot supply over the whole cycle. And pigs might fly. Ho hum.

Things are good right now. They won't always be. Make the most of it!

Scroggs

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Indeed easyJet are now stating online that they require 500hr MultiCrew and that TotalTime will be at their discretion. Times they are a changing. I would guess this move is going to allow for an exodus from the night freight, reigonal commuter airline and anyone with a lot of airwork time such as fisheries patrol who operate multicrew.

Next rung down will be the flying instructors if they drop the multicrew hours requirement to 50 or something.

Good luck,

WWW