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View Full Version : CX Aircraft order "Rumours"and Orders, (Merged).


Night Watch
15th Nov 2005, 07:12
OK.... since this is a rumour network and because the Fragrant Harbour forum has been boring as hell recently, I thought some might like to share there thoughts on what you think CX will choose.

So we know it's between the A340-600 and the B777-300ER.... Personally I don't really care, but would prefer the Airbus because there will be less chance of me having to sit through another conversion course!

My opinion is that it will come down to the last minute.... whoever has the cheapest bid wins (and not necessarily over the long term).

One way or the other I guess we will all hear soon, but in the mean time if you have a cool, funny, stupid or "absolute fact" rumours.... do share.

7FF
15th Nov 2005, 09:04
35 B777-300er's
25 B747-800's
30 B787's
Then I am biased for good reasons.

sizematters
15th Nov 2005, 09:47
why do you discount DeHavilland or the British Aircraft Corportaion so easily??? what about the Government aircraft factories in Australia.........

Fly747
15th Nov 2005, 10:04
Sorry to be such a spotter 7FF but it is actually 747-8 not 800!

Mr. Bloggs
15th Nov 2005, 11:12
IMHO 777-300ER’s to Europe in 2-4 years. The 744’s will be pulled off Europe to replace and expand the Freighter network. Excess will expand the pax fleet.

A340-600’s to replace the three we have and to replace the A340-300 routes. Excess A340-300’s will start new routes (long thin routes) or will be returned to Airbus.

When the 747 Advanced matures, it wiill start to replace the current B744 pax fleet. The 787’s are to small for CX.

A380’s at CX will not happen at Cathay. They will never get a new A/C until it is proven.

10 A340-600’s
10 777-300ER’s

CX is always conservative so don’t expect huge orders.

I believe high oil prices will curb world economies and less travel in the next 2-5 years. Asia (China) will always do well depending on H5N1.

mayday911
15th Nov 2005, 14:05
A so called "industry analyst" was predicting B777-300s with the order number being 15 airframes. This appeared in an article in Business Week magazine (November 7th issue I think). He was saying that the order would be placed by December of this year.
Just passing the infor along.

Mayday

Slapshot
15th Nov 2005, 16:16
Interesting that you mention the 747-8. Only two companies, Cargolux and All Nippon have committed to it so far according to this release... Interesting wingtip they've added to this model rather than the usual winglet we are used to on the -400...



http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2005/q4/nr_051114h.html (Boeing 747-8)

RB211-524G
15th Nov 2005, 18:24
ok i have a few questions on this topic that i would like answered.
1) why does CX not currently use the 777-200/300 on longer routes?
as well the comment was made that CX will not buy a new a/c until it has been proven,
so question #2) was the 777 not everything that they hoped for because, and correct me if i'm wrong, was CX not one of the first carriers to recieve the 777 when it was introduced?
thanks in advance :ok:

BuzzBox
15th Nov 2005, 23:49
1) why does CX not currently use the 777-200/300 on longer routes?

The 777 was originally purchased as a 'regional' aircraft, for the airline's intra-asian routes. Cathay's fleet strategy at the time was to use the B744/A340 on long haul routes, and the B777/A330 on short/medium haul routes. Cathay's B777-300s were therefore certified with de-rated engines (84,000lb thrust vs 90,000lb thrust for the standard RR Trent 892), and a lower MTOW (263.9T vs 297.5T for the standard version). Consequently, the airline's current B777-300s can't operate on longer routes unless they are re-certified, presumably at great expense. The -200s on the other hand, operate HKG-M.East non-stop, but with only 5 aircraft, there's not much else they can do.


2) was the 777 not everything that they hoped for because, and correct me if i'm wrong, was CX not one of the first carriers to recieve the 777 when it was introduced?

Cathay was a launch customer for the B777, and to my knowledge the aircraft has met its expectations. In terms of dispatch reliablity, the B777 far exceeds the French rubbish. The downside is that the B777 is much more expensive to buy than the Airbus.

The rumour mill seems to suggest that the B777-300ER is the hot favourite for Cathay's next order, but in the end it all comes down to a fine balancing act of airline economics. The final choice will no doubt come down to which aircraft is judged to provide the greatest overall cost benefit over the longer term.

betaboy
16th Nov 2005, 05:19
Seattle Times reports "Cathay may take six 747-8."


http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002624320_747advanced15.html

psy clops
16th Nov 2005, 12:12
The downside is that the B777 is much more expensive to buy than the Airbus. So much more that I think it might have some influence in the decision process.

404 Titan
16th Nov 2005, 14:35
CX has in the past said it preferred an Advanced 747 over the A380. Unfortunately the current bidding process is between the A340-600 and the B777-300ER. When this order is finally announced (at this stage sometime in December) it won’t be for just 20 or 30 aircraft. This will be a major order in the region of 70+ airframes over a number of years. 30 will be for direct replacements of older airframes and 40+ will be for expansion. The B747-8 may make up some of this order down the track but not in the near future. The A380 is definitely a non starter as the numbers don’t stack up and CX will never be a launch customer for Airbus again. Sometime in the future CX may look at this aircraft again but only after it has proven itself in service with other airlines. If previous Airbus products are to go by, the launch customers of the A380 are going to have a handful dealing with it when it enters service. My final bet is that CX will buy a mixture of both Airbus and Boeings as they have in the past.

mayday911
16th Nov 2005, 15:25
As someone who is awaiting a course date with CX, I hope that 404 Titan is seeing the future!!

From a passenger standpoint..the 340-600 was very comfortable in economy, even on the JFK-HKG-JFK nonstop. With lots of room to stand in the back and stretch your legs.

Mayday.

junior_man
17th Nov 2005, 14:27
I find it interesting that Boeing's new distance record was set with the 777 from Hong Kong to London.

Think there was a reason they started in HKG?

The Messiah
18th Nov 2005, 02:25
RB211-524G

CX were only the launch customer for the 777-300, which was well after the 777 had already been proven.

SMOC
18th Nov 2005, 16:10
I believe CX was one of the launch customers for the Rolls powered 777-200, Thai Airways got their RR powered 777 delivered first but HNA was the first RR powered 772, it remained with Boeing until testing was complete, just like HOO was the first RR powered -400, but was delivered after HOP.

I don't think CX has a problem with Boeing just the recent experience with the A330/340/-600 has cast some doubt about being a launch customer.

For info CX has the first built,

A330-300
B777-200
B777-300

RR powered B747-200F (ex BA)
RR powered B747-400
RR powered B747-400F
RR powered B777-200
& last but not least the first B747-400BCF

dartman
18th Nov 2005, 19:28
...well it has been an interesting month. The record flight from HKG, 747-8 launched last week, and now NR says the long haul order is imminent,...!? Coincidence....? Airbus, I think not! Phew!!

BuzzBox
18th Nov 2005, 23:07
HNA was the first RR powered 772
Don't mean to spoil your party SMOC, but HNL was the RR-powered 772 test aircraft. It was bought by Cathay after the first four aircraft were delivered. :8 :8 :8

SMOC
19th Nov 2005, 00:15
BuzzBox, you mean after it was re-engined with RR don't you it first flew with P&W engines.

http://www.airliners.net/open.file/056066/L/

BuzzBox
19th Nov 2005, 00:30
OOPS - a thousand apologies!!! :O :O :O

SkyCruiser
19th Nov 2005, 02:44
Ok,


I feel we are going to order some of the new 747-8, and some 777's.

:D ;)


Come on Boeing.....:ok:

Flying Bagel
19th Nov 2005, 04:47
Neck and neck still, I hear. Lots of 'analyst' rubbish floating around out there though.

But I reckon the 1-11 still has a chance. Well, just as much of one as the 787.

Go BAC.

Night Watch
19th Nov 2005, 06:40
When talking to SAA and Virgin tech crew, they have both said that there airlines a happy with there -600s. I think our problem has always been that we have the first of the line. If they do order the -600, hopefully they can send these 3 back at the end of the lease and get shiny new ones.

SMOC
19th Nov 2005, 06:50
If CX goes for the 777-300ER that means GE engines, which then opens the door for the 747-8 which is also powered by only GEs.

Or another way,

NO GE = NO BOEING

I'm off to the DXB airshow on Wednesday so hope to get a Rumour there.

Night Watch
19th Nov 2005, 07:09
SMOC

Good point.... is CX ready to walk away from Rolls after so many years of engineering knowledge, with such a big order for the 300ER.

mmmm.....

SMOC
19th Nov 2005, 23:48
Apparently the SCMP said 16 777-300ERs which leave 7 something else, please bring on the 747-8

BuzzBox
20th Nov 2005, 01:19
Given that CX has been pushing Boeing for a new 747 with greater capacity and range, an order for the the 747-8 would seem to make sense. If I was a betting man, I'd reckon a mix of 300ERs and 747-8s could be in the offing. I guess we'll have to wait and see...

Hellenic aviator
20th Nov 2005, 02:16
I had breakfast with a few of the Boeing Test pilots at the Headland yesterday, and one of the questions I asked them was whether they 'heard' or were aware of any new orders from CPA.

One of them replied that we had definately ordered 2 B747-8 as freighters. He said that he was quite sure of this. Nobody else confirmed this, or any other orders....

404 Titan
20th Nov 2005, 02:58
People are jumping ahead of themselves here. Sorry to tell you this but a Boeing test pilot would have no idea whether we have ordered anything let alone numbers for the B748. The reality is that Cathay hasn’t ordered anything yet, period so anything coming out of a Boeing or Airbus employee’s mouth at this stage is purely speculation and wishful thinking. There are strong indications that we could hear an announcement before the end of the month. It will be a decision between the A340-600 and the B777-300ER only. The B748 has not been evaluated at this stage and isn’t under consideration. CX will evaluate this aircraft and I am sure will probably buy it down the track but not just yet. Final orders including options I believe will be for 70+ airframes. 30 will be replacements for older airframes and 40+ for expansion. Initial order will be for 20-30 airframes. As I have said before I believe we will probably buy both A340-600’s and B777-300ER’s. I am sure that some of these options down the track will be converted into B748’s once CX has made a full evaluation of the aircraft. If I am wrong I will eat my humble words.

Sqwak7700
20th Nov 2005, 18:56
70+ order? You really think CX, being the conservative company that we all know, would place an order that would nearly double its fleet size? I would think the order would not exceed 25 aircraft. Maybe 35, tops. Which, considering the size of Cathay, is still a huge order.

I'm not sure what aircraft it will be, but judging from the articles in company wesites and publications, It certainly feels like it is coming down to the wire and they are playing both manufacturers to try and get the cheapest prize. That leads me to believe that they are planning an order for both, and are just trying to negotiate the best prize.

Either way I'm gonna take a stab at it for fun. I'm guessing an order for 15 or so 777s, that will be a mix of 300 and 200LRs, probably 10 300s and 5 200LRs. I also think they will take advantage of Boeing's lead over Airbus to negotiate a really good prize on a few more 346s, maybe a newer version which will fix some of the shortcomings of the current 346.

I don't think they will jump on the 747-8 bandwaggon. We have just spent millions on the 747-400BCF program, which means it will be the main source of freighter aircraft for the next few years. Its not like the 400-8 freighter will allow us to skip the stop in ANC or anything, so a few extra tonnes won't be worth the new aircraft price.

Either way, we should know which it will be in the next few weeks.

busdriver
25th Nov 2005, 02:49
Latest rumour

25x 777

made up of "300ER+" and "200LR"

Options on another 17

N1 Vibes
29th Nov 2005, 21:24
Fuel for the fire.....

The announcement is strongly rumoured to be today 30/11.

Was in the GE reps office yesterday and spotted the regional sales guy for their overhaul businness and a contracts lady from Cincinatti, both hunched over a steaming laptop thrashing out a 'document' on the GE90.

Mr Derek C, top of the pile in ENG, recently travelled to the US for 10 days on 'business'. Probably in the favoured seat 1A of course!

Read into this what you will. But, I suspect I'll to be taking the engine course in Cinci next year.

Brgd's:cool:

Cripple 7
29th Nov 2005, 22:57
The 747-400ERF can skip ANC and go HKG - ORD non-stop.

flyingkiwi
30th Nov 2005, 09:32
want another guess N1...

I hate to admit im thinking it will be 777s, not another ground course!!!

Plastique
30th Nov 2005, 11:15
Add to that the general long faced demenour of the guys in the Airbus office... can't win zem all etc etc.

SMOC
1st Dec 2005, 07:45
CX has purchased 16 777-300ERs and has options on 20 more they also have an order for 3 more A330-300s

Mr. Bloggs
1st Dec 2005, 08:21
So where are they flying? Didn’t think CX had the fortitude to go over the pole with a mere 2 engines. I speculate it will be to Europe and the 744’s will be deployed to North America.

Will CX be reduced to just the A330’s?

Team America
1st Dec 2005, 08:34
The plans are double daily non stop HKG-NYC

Double daily SFO

Toronto non stop service

All with the 777-300ER

340-600 will be retuned at the end of their lease period.

flyingkiwi
1st Dec 2005, 10:17
apparently all the 340s have had leases extended till 2011, I really am not looking forward to eating off my lap....

Turbo Beaver
1st Dec 2005, 11:23
What about Johannesburg? CX will have to order more pillows.

corporal klinger
1st Dec 2005, 11:46
which is the biggest aircraft order in cathay history, management today announced:

17x 777 ER plus options of 20 more

3x 330

delivery will take place between 2006 and 2010

(fleet size today 95)

moosp
1st Dec 2005, 12:06
Just to get the numbers correct before this goes off to the FH forum, here is what Philip Chen put out in the press release.

"I am delighted to be able to announce that we have just placed orders for 16 brand new Boeing 777-300ER long haul aircraft with Purchase Rights for 20 more. In addition we have placed orders for three regional Airbus A330-300s."

Not sure where you got 17 from.

Fly747
1st Dec 2005, 14:21
SCMP says 36 boeings which is 16 + 20, I think!

411A
3rd Dec 2005, 01:30
Now, with all these new aeroplanes a commin', I wonder when the CX pointy end folks will begin to feel their collective oats and ask for more pay?:ooh:

Mr. Bloggs
3rd Dec 2005, 01:48
They are the best paid in the industry already. Besides that would require balls, but we covered that in another thread.

Tornado Ali
4th Dec 2005, 03:53
I see Bloggs.....tell a lie enough times and it becomes truth eh...? There are still several European and US airlines that pay more (total package terms) than CX does to it's A-scalers. Why don't you start with UPS or FEDEX for starters, both on about 25% more than CX. How about Air France? You get the idea. Stick a sock in it if you can't tell the truth. Obviously your mommy didn't spank you enough when you were a child....:mad:

corporal klinger
5th Dec 2005, 14:07
let's keep it it civilized, t.a, but you are absolutely right:

it is an urban legend that cx is the best paying airline, miracously frequently told by cx pilots...

Nippon Cargo,Jal,UPS,the list is long..

petitfromage
6th Dec 2005, 03:29
If only I knew what "miracously" meant?

Even if you meant "miraculously" its still not a proper sentence. :confused:

It think your sentence is a malapropism with a spelling mistake? Either way its a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.........

Thread creep & erroneous junk best sent to Terms and Endearment. This thread was about aircraft purchases......and the facts are now known.

Endex. Kapput and Bobs your Uncle!