The alleged NZ pilot shortage - THE FACTS

[Luke SkyToddler]

OK people

here's some hard cold statistics for you all.

Delta T gets all credit for doing the research, I'm just posting my thoughts on it.

Statistic # 1

From the stats office, 2001 census
-------------
for the Employed Census Usually Resident Population Count
Aged 15 Years and Over, 2001

31431Aircraft Pilot and Flight Crew 1,608
31433Flying Instructor 210
31434Helicopter Pilot 231

Statistic #2

From the CAA website

new CPL issue figures from 1993 - 2003
------------
1993 167
1994 231
1995 310
1996 270
1997 261
1998 223
1999 197
2000 186
2001 178
2002 265
2003 167

Statistic # 3

From the CAA website once again

Total number of pilot licences issued, with active class 1 / class 2 medical. i.e. for ATPL (A)'s, 2447 total, 1101 with active class 1, 552 with class 2
-------------
Licence Type Total Class 1 Class2
ATPLA Part 61 PL(Aeroplane) 2447 1101 552
ATPLH Part 61 PL (Helicopter) 91 43 18
CPLA Part 61 PL(Aeroplane) 4080 1405 1058
CPLB Part 61 PL (Balloon) 37 19 7
CPLG Part 61 PL (Glider) 8 3 2
CPLH Part 61 PL (Helicopter) 1257 604 318
PPLA Part 61 PL(Aeroplane) 8224 380 2890
PPLH Part 61 PL (Helicopter) 860 81 338
SCPLA Part 61 PL(Aeroplane) 50 5 8

Right you guys got all that?

Let's have a think here.

What we've got is (1,608 + 210) 1,818 people on the census who reckon they fly fixed wing airplanes commercially for a living (I would be very surprised if there were 210 full time paid flying instructor positions in NZ though!!)

There are (1,092 + 1,399) 2,491 active ATPLs and CPLs, (i.e. those with current class 1 medicals). Presumably the difference between the 2,491 and the 1,818 is those who are currently student CPL pilots, and those who are unemployed but maintaining their currency while they look for work.

There are a further ( (2,448 - 1,092) + (4,075 - 1,399) 4,032 holders of CPLs and ATPLs which are inactive, i.e. they only have current class 2 medical privileges or no medical at all.

The total figures of (2,448 + 4,075 -1,818) = 4,705 CPL or ATPL licences which aren't being actively used.

Of course, some of those licence holders are going to be retired, and some others will be flying overseas. If we do some hypothetical trickery with retirement-at-65 and average-life-expectancy figures, I reckon about 1/3 of them would be retired (or lost their medicals while they were younger). The other big factor is those kiwis like myself who have gone overseas to look for work, no idea how many of them are now in Cathay or Emirates or easyjet or Virgin Blue but it's got to be quite a few. Let's say a couple of thousand (I'd be surprised if it was as many as that but I've got no real idea of how to find out those figures). However, you can't actually use all of us as fodder for the alleged 'pilot shortage' in NZ though, because so many of us would actually love to come back home and fly for a living if the jobs were there! So let's say, half of them are gone for good with no intention of ever returning and flying in NZ, and half of them would come home if a suitable job was available.

Summary so far :

4,705 'inactive' commercial licences
1,568 retired
1,000 overseas and don't ever want to come back to NZ
=
----------------
A potential 2,137 pilots available to NZ airline operators, right this minute.

In addition to that we have the new CPL issue figures. Now this is the most critical and disturbing set of figures as far as I'm concerned.

Let's say those 1,818 active kiwi commercial pilots have an average 40 year flying career in NZ (first commercial flying job at 25 and retire at 65). That would make, on average, 45.4 commercial pilot positions available every year.

The number of new CPLs issued over the past decade, has been (average of those 10 year figures) average of 223 new CPLs issued every year. That is precisely 4.9 times more new CPLs than jobs, ever single year. Or to look at it another way, it's 79% of the total new pilots every year, 177 new holders of CPLs EVERY YEAR who statistically are heading straight for the dole queue. In addition to the 2,137 who are already on it.

Amazing.

Still reckon there's a pilot shortage Mr Sattler? Huh? Huh?

Your thoughts please everyone ...

[Carnegie Wah]

Good Math Sir! About time someone took the old bull by the balls, if you like.

[123567]

I'll believe that there is a pilot shortage when I pick up the New Zealand Herald and see a CPL job advertised with better conditions and wages than the job advertised for the forklift driver...

Luke

Excellent data. I have copied some information from a report that was done in 2002 on this subject. Note that numbers for people overseas and over 60 without current medicals was excluded.

Quote

"It is important when analysing the data above to subtract the number of document holders living overseas and also the number of holders over the age of sixty. The conclusion assumed is that these people will more than likely not be seeking employment in New Zealand. From this data and the statistics NZ census data various conclusions can be determined.

It is appreciated that the census was conducted in 2001 and the data was only collected from people resident in NZ at the time. Even if an allowance was incorporated for this discrepancy it will not alter the results obtained by the document holder statistics.


Q 15,005 licensed pilots, counting all fixed wing and helicopter document holders.

Q 6,840 not fit for any operations or 45% of total includes all fixed wing and helicopter document holders.

Q 5,755 total professional licenses excluding overseas residents and people over 60 without current medicals. This figure can be given as the total number of people who might be actively searching or available for work in New Zealand if it was available.

Q 2,223 Document holders are currently licensed for commercial operations (current medicals) 38.6% of total. This figure is within 1% of the 2001 Census data.

Q 3,532 Document holders are not currently licensed for commercial operations (NO current medicals) 61.5% of total.

Q 2,556 CPLS not flying 63% of total CPL document holders

Q 9,66 ATPLS not flying 56% of total ATPL document holders"


PM me if you want a copy of this report.

[haughtney1]

Glad im in the uk.....hey is old saddle bags still riding around in that young boy magnet..dayglo tomahawk...?

an amendment to that last post..........Ive just realised it will probably be construed in a fashion that is the opposite to what I was trying to convey.......1000 apologize to all concerned:(

[Speeds high]

I'll believe that there is a pilot shortage when I pick up the New Zealand Herald and see a CPL job advertised with better conditions and wages than the job advertised for the forklift driver...

Ok not that I believe in any mystical pilot shortage or anything, but didnt I see a pilot job advertised in the NZ Herald like 2 days ago, for a captain and co to fly a small jet?

:\ :\ :\ :\

Hehe just think its ironic

[nzmarty]

yup = here it is....

PILOTS

PILOTS Corporate Flight Services, based at Ardmore Airport Auckland, has been engaged in managing, crewing and operating business jet, jet-prop and piston aircraft for corporate owners since 1983. Emphasis is placed on customer service and professionalism. We invite expressions of interest from suitably qualified pilots to provide contract crew services either as Captain or First Officer on Citation 500 series jet aircraft operated in a private corporate role. Pilots should hold or prepared to obtain a Cessna Citation 500 series type rating. It is anticipated that Captains will hold an ATPL/ATR license, at least 4000 hours with appropriate multi-engine, instrument and turbine experience. First Officers should have at least 1000 hours flight time with multi-engine, instrument and preferably turbine experience. Pilots operate under the requirements of our Manager Flight Standards. A 2 year contract is envisaged. Further details may be provided following receipt in writing of a resume of flight experience and qualifications to: Corporate Flight Services Limited Private Bag 14 Ardmore Airport Papakura

• Published Saturday, September 11 2004

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/classifieds/linead.cfm?pillar=1&subpillar=28&adid=26263501201

[piontyendforward]

Humm,

"Pilots should hold or prepared to obtain a Cessna Citation 500 series type rating."

Fly to the US (own expense), do FAA ATP/CPL IR (own expense), Complete Citation course at Flight Safety (own expense) then sign up for two years!

Good deal!

[123567]

Treat this with the contempt it deserves.

Spend all your weekends in Dunedin with a pittance for an expense allowance and get LESS than $60K for the privilege - also don't complain when you are asked to valet the aircraft yourself.

PS It's a Citation ONE, and you'll need a US license and type rating.

Though I'll give it to Dennis - good on him for advertising. I guess all the guys he offered the job too must have turned him down?

I'll bet he's got all those 1000 hour CVs rolling in - "I am prepared to PAY you for the privilege"

[Luke SkyToddler]

Good link here http://www.kiwicareers.govt.nz/jobs/2d_air/j34460e.htm

The govt's own career website not only backs me up on my calculations, but predicts pilot numbers to remain static for the next two or three years.

As indeed they were for the 5 years between the 1996 and 2001 census's ...

--------------------
1996 census

31434 Helicopter Pilot 180
31433 Flying Instructor 249
31432 Agricultural Aeroplane Pilot 90
31431 Aeroplane Pilot and Flight Crew 1,470
-------------

Total pilots 1996 ... 1,989
Total pilots 2001 ... 2,049

A massive increase of 60 pilots over 5 years, counting helicopter pilots - or in other words an amazing 0.6% increase in pilot numbers per annum. And that was in the 5 years at the end of the '90s when the pilot business was apparently booming, BEFORE Sept 11th and the failure of Ansett etc.

Tough luck if you were one of the 1,137 people who got CPLs issued in that 5-year period eh.

Come on I find it hard to believe that no one from the whole AIA has noticed this thread yet ... speak to us Irene and explain to us how you came up with the numbers, cos it's got me beat :confused:

[intake]

Just looking at this thread from around the other side of the world. Very interesting- I hold an NZ passport and have been looking at returning to the land of the long white cloud. Have NZ ATPL plus 2 others, 5000 TT which includes 3000 jet and not one reply to any applications. Must be alot of high time girls/guys down there? Well good luck to those getting the call- cheers intake

[stillalbatross]

Intake mate, here's a trick I learn't. Wherever you are sending your CVs to, be it NZ or Oz or the UK, it is important that you organise a mailing address in that country. When the lady from the office of Goingbrokeslowly airlines is doing anything with your CV it is soooooooo much easier to stick a local stamp on it along with all the others she is sending out info to than fussing about with overseas mail and, it might make the difference between getting an interview or not.

As Luke has admirably pointed out, Goingbrokeslowly airlines is never going to be stretched for finding suitable applicants.

Luke, can you get records on how many have their ATPL subjects but don't have the flight test under their belts yet? That is the sad part. That there are guys out there with 1500 tt and the subjects that can't find the money for the flight test and thus can't easily work overseas on contract.

Can anyone remember the early 90's when that Falcon 10 (20?)was based in Dunedin and they couldn't find anyone to fly it as f/o because no-one wanted to move that far south :-)

[craven]

I've met a few Kiwi drivers and they will work for less and stuff it up for everyone else. Maybe they should go home and fight over the few jobs on offer and see how they feel.
Craven.:yuk:

[intake]

Hey dickh**d, get back in your AC50 and don't pop your head out unless you have something interesting to say.

[kumul1]

Interesting stats LST, Don't forget also that a lot of licences issued are to pilots from neibouring Pacific islands which I believe are included in the CAA stats.

[craven]

Thats not very choice eh bro!
Maybe you are working for less that the law stipulates.
Why don't you go for that citation job in NZ , thats the situation that you lot have created.
PS don't forget the kneepads.
Craven (A proud Australian and unionist)

[DeltaT]

Kumul1
That might be true, but its still NZ licences and people that can be employed to work here directly in NZ

[THE ANTICHRIST]

Hey Craven

You sound like a bitter and twisted redneck.
Is it true that your Mum and Dad were brother and sister and your first boyfriend was a potty calf?
Bet you are proud of that Aussie boy!


:ok:

[AT502]

Oh Dear, this is getting a little nasty girls!

Don't scream at me, but after reading what all of you have to say I would like to add another twist. We have a huge amount of Kiwi Ag Pilots in Aussie, because there quite simply is not enough work over there in NZ for them. And the pay is a hell of a lot better over here.

It really creates a lot of bitterness when the Kiwis start their own operations here and and only employee their mates from the homeland. And then they are the ones to go price cutting around the place and it just upsets the whole balance of things.

There seem to plane loads of pilots entering Oz each month. So you have plenty of commercial pilots, just also holding Ag Ratings on top of the commercial and trying to pinch our jobs. Which, I can understand why (before you all yell at me) but really it is just putting more pressure on our job situation here. So you must see why a hell of a lot of aussies are little (a lot in some areas) anti the kiwis.:\

ST

[DeltaT]

and in the balance JetConnect and Virgin Blue only seem to have Auz pilots.
But this is getting off topic!
We want to slam these people saying there is a shortage!!

[Luke SkyToddler]

Spot on Delta

This has got nothing to do with stereotyping and bickering between already-highly qualified-and-experienced-pilots working in other countries, so can you Aussies stop s h i t stirring please?

It's everybody's problem anyway, in that right now, the kiwi flight training industry keeps on flooding the market with enough taxpayer-funded muppets to take up every single available flying job in both NZ and Oz put together.

That is hurting everyone :

A) the 90% of kiwi wannabe's who aint got a show of getting any work when they finish their training, and are getting totally fleeced and lied to by a handful of unscrupulous politically well-connected flying school owners.

B) The kiwi taxpayer, who's laying on tens of millions of dollars to buy useless qualifications for people who are never going to repay their loans.

C) The career prospects of all of us on both sides of the ditch, who find that flying jobs aren't offered on the basis of who's the best person for the job, but who can afford to buy a type rating / work for free for the longest.

D) The hard working people (like Delta T) who've paid for it all themselves and done it the old-fashioned way, who've been driven to the brink of financial ruin after multiple years of hard slog in GA, because the employers know they can get away with paying peanuts or nothing and "if you won't do it for free then there's 20 others that will" :mad:

Anyone who is working in, has ever worked in, or just cares about the state of GA in this country, has got a big responsibility to put a stop to this right now. Even if you're now an airline pilot and you want your sons and daughters to have the opportunity for a crack at the same amount of meagre employment opportunities we now have, it's your problem too.

[doubleu-anker]

I wouldn't mind a $ for every Australian pilot that has taken a job off someone in the Northern hemisphere.

Yes, there are a lot of Kiwis there too but compared to an Australian, a Kiwi is genetically superior.

[Cypher]

settle down doubleu-anker......

For a thread that is supposed to be about a supposed pilot shortage... it reads a lot like a pi$$ing competition of whos got the bigger weenie...



:rolleyes:

[nzmarty]

that'll be me then :)