Who can we blame when Avgas runs out?

[Creampuff]

The supply of oil will run out.

Long before it does, the manufacture of Avgas will become economically unviable.

Long before the manufacture of Avgas becomes economically unviable, it will cost $10pl. I expect that will happen before the end of this decade.

Who can we blame for all this?

I intend to blame Gaunty, but I’m not sure whether that’ll restore the supply of cheap Avgas.

Perhaps the better questions are: what are you all planning to do about the impending cessation of the manufacture of Avgas, and the interim premium you’ll be paying for it?

[Obiwan]

Hopefully GA aircraft will be moving to alternatives like diesel or ethanol

http://www.centurion-engines.com/
http://www.deltahawkengines.com/
http://www.baylor.edu/bias/index.php?id=111
http://www.eere.energy.gov/power/tech_access/docs/51_ethanol_as_aviation_fuel.cfm
http://www.stormingmedia.us/keywords/aviation_fuels.html

[OZBUSDRIVER]

An interesting post creamy . It would be interesting to draw a parrallel between the present day and the fuel shocks of the seventies. The induced shock forced most every country to re-think their position on the fuel efficiency of their respective auto fleets. Case in point- 1974 HQ holden 202 returning somewhere around 22-25mpg. 1998 VS Commodore V6 returning around 35mpg, similar weights but more efficient design results in better fuel economy as well as better reliability. Aviation industry especially GA has stagnated in 50's technology. Looking at the homebuilt fleets, we can see some extraordinary designs that are returning both performance and economy. My favorite is a little aussie contraption called an arrow. It uses an 80/100hp subaru motor, cruises at a leasurly 130kts and delivers 37mpg on the old scale. cheap flying :)

As for the current fleet of dinosaurs. My thoughts would be a re-engine program using the SNECMA diesel or the Thielert diesel or variations on the new Honda diesel. These engines will return similar power as the current avgas guzzlers and turn them into economical kero burners. At a price though. Bombardier is buliding two V6 geared prop engines, fully electronic firewall forward replacements for the current bigblocks. I understand these will run on avgas/97 unleaded as well as pump gas with no ill effects. Also regulators will have to bite the bullet on allowing full electronic control on the current fleet of bigblock direct drive engines. Fixed timing magnetoes and either carburation or farm tractor fuel injection will have to make way for ECU electronic fuel injection and either CDI or full electronic dual ignition. Water cooling could also be an addition to allow higher temps and closer manufacturing tolerences.

I feel the future will be a lot brighter than some would have us believe. Hydrocarbon based fuels are going to be around with us for a few more years yet. Mate, we have got two hundred years worth of gas deposits of the WA coast. Higher fuel prices will allow the economics of converting gas to liquids a viable reality. Not to mention bio-fuels and full electric power from fuel cells. ALSO with the availability of smaller and less expensive turbines opens up another market....Mate , the possibilities are endless.

TO INFINITY AND BEYOND

Mark

PS The march of the world economy will always have the price of commodities increasing. $10.00 a US gal could be feasable but it would also be intersting to see what the average wage is as well.

[poison_dwarf]

creamy

While I understand why, I feel it is most unfair to blame gaunty.

After all, has he not done his bit in conserving both avgas and jet-a1 by not flying anything for over a decade????

[I Fly]

I'll do my bit in conserving AVGAS. In a month or so I'll be flying a DA 42. Which of you will do the same?????????

[OZBUSDRIVER]

I Fly , I too would like to have the option of change. Would be VERY interested on your thoughts after experiencing the Diamond Diesel.

[dingo084]

I see the dopey dwarf fails to understand the importance of Creamy's question but inadvertantley adds methane to the thread.

I Fly, you MUST report to us on the DA42

ding

[OzExpat]

PNG has had a major problem with the supply of Avgas for over 12 months already, with no prospects for improvement in the situation any time soon. While the reasons are not specifically based on worldwide supply, Avgas usage has fallen over many years as operators replace piston engined aircraft with turbine engined aircraft, so there is no longer a need to import Avgas in the same quantities as there was in the past.

However, we still have many operators flying pistons and they face an on-going challenge in obtaining fuel around the country every day.

[Icarus2001]

It probably will not be an issue in Australia for the simple reason that there will not be many Avgas burning aircraft left flying.:rolleyes:

CASA, Dick Smith, AsA and AOPA are making sure of that. :*

All joking aside look at all the trend lines for GA in Australia. Number of pilots, hours flown etc. The only healthy sector is run by the RAA.

CASA admit quietly that they want all paying passengers flying in turbine aircraft.

[OZBUSDRIVER]

Understand the same thing as PNG in most parts of Africa. Also remember the two Q captains who circumnavigated the rock in a Lancair IV had troubles in rag-head country trying to source AVGAS.

[Obiwan]

There are only two sources of tetraethyl lead these days, one in UK and one in Russia. Google shows up a variety of interesting articles such as
http://www.aviationnow.com/content/ncof/ncf_n40.htm

[flichik]

Didn't phase cars when unleaded came in. Why can't the Lyco or Contis be redesigned to run on unleaded???

[Bevan666]

There is current work being done by both GAMI (http://www.gami.com/) (their priism system) and Teledyne Continental to produce FADEC controls for the current stock of 100LL burning aero engines. FADEC will provide variable timing and more precise control of mixture into the engine which will allow it to run on lower octane fuel (such as 96 octane unleaded and other fuels).

Variable timing will increase the detonation margins inside the engine, allowing reduced octane fuels to be safely burned. It should also increase reliability. It should bring aero engine technology into the 90's from its current state, which is stagnant in 50's technology.

Bevan..

[Bob Murphie]

Rather topical posts on a similar subject; Coal powered aircraft?

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?threadid=143820


http://www.ecology.com/ecology-today/coal-fuel-future/

[Obiwan]

Didn't phase cars when unleaded came in. Stuck some ULP in my old Ford Escort by mistake once - didn't like it at all. (although the engine wasn't stock)

[flichik]

Bevan

Unlike the fool above you, your post was helpful and informative.

Thank you.

Pity you are in the minority on this site.

FC

Edited to say, I didn't mean you obiwan :)

[tinpis]

Creampuff
Your opening statement
The supply of oil will run out.

Request for further particulars,can you please supply a date and time for this event?

[OZBUSDRIVER]

Was going to post this on greenhouse thread a couple of weeks ago but I think you all may be interested in a different theory

OK, Now for something completely different. Everybody remembers something about how hydrocarbons and coal were formed. In the case of coal, it was formed in the huge floating swamps of the carboniferous period about 1700 million years ago. Most all of the coal is found fairly shallow deposits down to 1km. This was about the time we were still part of Antartica. Oil was produced from an earlier time period from 1700 million years ago to 3.5 billion years ago mostly marine from zooplankton and phytoplankton literally falling in a blizzard on the floor of the shallow oceans of that time. Most of these deposits are now about 4miles down from the present surface and are a fluke of reservoirs forming in sandstones with some sort of permeable cap to stop the stuff evaporating away. Now to introduce you to Thomas Gold and a few Russian scientist In the case of Thomas Gold his theory is that ALL hydrocarbons are produced from geological activity from at least 100km down in the mantle. Pressures of at least 30Kbar and 1500C required to produce heavy hydrocarbon chains. He puts a good explanation to this theory. Explaining why hydrocarbons are found all thru the solar system. Why Titan and Neptune have atmospheres of methane

For me this explains why we find fields in tectonically active areas. Saudi lies near a rift. New Guinea is still going UP Indonesia (there was a theory that Indonesia and Borneo's oil was escaping from the Middle East(juggy stories) Indonesia is certainly not very stable. Where by contrast Australia's oil fields where more predominantly gas /condensate fields produced from higher temperatures and found in sedimentary basins from a similar age. Gold's theory is that in effect life on this planet originated from organic material from within the earths crust not from above it AND hydrocarbons are still being produced. I have often wondered about the processes required for a FINITE source like the Middle East to produce a million barrels a day or better of oil for the last forty years or so.??????

To find out more, start up Google and search "Origin of Hydrocarbons" and read on. Would be interesting to see what the flat earth soc¡..ER greens have to say about that!

Regards

Mark

[Obiwan]

Edited to say, I didn't mean you obiwan Just as well, or I might have to use my powers for evil;)

When will oil run out? Not for a while. I've read a few articles saying we will hit peak production within the next 10 years, but after that demand will outstrip supply, pushing prices up. We will start extracting oil reserves that were previously uneconomical to consider. But why wait til then? Oh, that's right - the oil companies bought the patents to all the revolutionary 1000mpg engines/ cars that run on water etc. :ok:

[Ultralights]

An interesting post creamy . It would be interesting to draw a parrallel between the present day and the fuel shocks of the seventies. The induced shock forced most every country to re-think their position on the fuel efficiency of their respective auto fleets. Case in point- 1974 HQ holden 202 returning somewhere around 22-25mpg. 1998 VS Commodore V6 returning around 35mpg, similar weights but more efficient design results in better fuel economy as well as better reliability. Aviation industry especially GA has stagnated in 50's technology. Looking at the homebuilt fleets, we can see some extraordinary designs that are returning both performance and economy. My favorite is a little aussie contraption called an arrow. It uses an 80/100hp subaru motor, cruises at a leasurly 130kts and delivers 37mpg on the old scale. cheap flying

what about the Aussie designed and Built Jabiru engines! my J2200, pulls me along at 150 Kts at 12L per hour! or i could chug along at 120Kts in an pa28/181 Archer for 35LPer hour!

the technology is already in our skies! Just not for GA, unless your prepared to mortgage a few houses.


this arrow you talk of! any more info?

[Creampuff]

My apologies to all for the delay in responding.

Obiwan: my thanks for all those links. Some extraordinarily useful information.

OzExpat raised an issue which I hadn’t considered: the demand side rather than just the supply side. As Australia and other countries changes to turbine and, to a lesser extent (so far) diesel, engines, the demand and consumption for Avgas will decline, irrespective of the various factors which determine the cost of supply. Even if we assume that there is an endless supply of Avgas, the diminishing demand will mean that the cost of supply will have to be distributed across a diminishing number of litres sold, thus increasing the price.

Flichik (uncharacteristically) asked a good question: why can’t the standard GA-certified engines be modified so that they can run on unleaded. That would be a short-term solution. Any engine LAMEs out there care to shed light on this one? My limited understanding is that the materials and specs of some engines are such that they can never run on ULP.

Bob Murphie: wouldn’t it be great if we could manufacture an engine that ran on ethanol produced by our ailing sugar industry? Dick Smith: where are when we need you?

Tinpis: you ask for the date and time when the supply of oil will run out. I can’t tell you that. Can you tell me the date and time of your death? Notwithstanding the fact that you can’t tell me the date and time of your death, you will surely die, and notwithstanding the fact that I can’t tell you the date and time when the supply of oil will run out, it will surely run out. What’s your point?

Ultralights: some fantastic, low consumption technology. I understand that the Jabiru engines are getting good press OS. Let’s hope it continues and expands.

[Obiwan]

creampuff Flichik (uncharacteristically) asked a good question: why can’t the standard GA-certified engines be modified so that they can run on unleaded.
One of the links I found had some stuff about changing to unleaded.

A variety of organizations, from oil companies to the FAA, are trying to find a lead-free substitute for 100 low-lead (100LL),but so far nothing viable has appeared. Proposed formulations often are more toxic than TEL, don't meet specifications and are expensive. Engine alterations may offer some relief, but this is far from certain.

Before my time but I understand similar pains were experienced in the change from 100/130 to 100LL?

[tinpis]

Indeed I will surely die,a biological fact.
Where is your evidence that oil will run out?
It may well be that it becomes quite expensive to recover(ie expensive Quixotic military forays for one) and quite possibly fuel will be reserved in some part for aviation use until a CHEAPER fuel supply can be found(fuel cells?)
Motoring I believe will change in the next decade with more and more hybrid autos coming onto the market at affordable prices.
I believe most oil used in the UK is for home heating correct me if I am wrong, I would suspect a similar situation in Europe.

[OZBUSDRIVER]

G'DayUltralight Mate, my point exactly. The Jab as a 100% home grown product is an excellent example. Nearly all the yank tank designs as Gaunty put it on a post ages ago, are safe and easy enough that even your ailing grandmother could fly them without many hiccups. Not to say that most all the current designs and the Jab is included here are VERY safe.

As my economist-in-training brother used to put it. "If the average fuel consumption of the nations fleet is improved, it will increase the expected life of any oil reserve proportionatly"

With regard to the Jabs engine, when you look at the capacity of the engine at 2.2Litres I fear that the designers are trying to get too much torque at lower revs. I would be interested to see what the outcome would be if the revs were increased to 3 to 3500 rpm and gear the prop back to 2000rpm. I wonder if this would improve reliability. It would certainly help the power output :)

With regard to the arrow- I do not wish to advertise, I am no way involved with this mob , but I do wish to own one ,one day
:)
www.tomair.com.au

PS creamy have I upset you in some way, I have already broached some of these subjects that you credit other posters with...If I have, I am sorry mate:ok:

Regards

Mark

[The Chef]

Apparently the supply of Avgas has run out already, at BN that is. I was there today and could not by a single litre of it. One company competly out and the other with only enough to supply its regular customers for who knows how long.

Pretty good for a major airport.........NOT!

[Ultralights]

With regard to the Jabs engine, when you look at the capacity of the engine at 2.2Litres I fear that the designers are trying to get too much torque at lower revs. I would be interested to see what the outcome would be if the revs were increased to 3 to 3500 rpm and gear the prop back to 2000rpm. I wonder if this would improve reliability. It would certainly help the power output

The jab 2200 in the Joey, and the Jabiru aircraft i fly, have a cruise power setting of 2800 rpm, and a take off, max power at 3100 rpm.

the 2800 cruise in my Joey produces 155Kts cruise, 2650 gives 145 kts at a Fuel flow of 11L per hour!
2800 in the Jabiru gives 95Kts


this alone proves that ever increasing peformance in airframe and wing design will also go a long way in improving fuel economy. I am quite certain that the removal of parasite drag of thousands of rivets alone will provide substantial increases in cruise performance and fuel economy.

I have looked at the Cobra arrow, but i found them a little expensive for their performance, and i prefer a kit that required a little more work on my part. they are a great design and easy to build, but i liked the ability to make small improvements to all parts of my aircraft, that why i settled on the Joey, Timber and composite kit.

[OZBUSDRIVER]

ultralights mate, I stand corrected. I will have to learn more about the Jab motors and not listen to other peoples theories:O

Your choice of the Joey is what I think makes RAA so vibrant. The choice is there to do exactly what you feel you want to do. I have a friend in YMIA who has a Sonerai with a home turboed 912. I have yet to see it . It easily cruises in excess of 160kts. He also owns a Skyfox so am very envious.

Sorry to hijack thread. Just a question toTheChef. Are you talking about the GA terminal at YBBN?

[Creampuff]

I owe two apologies

OZBUSDRIVER - I should have acknowledged the very useful points you had made. I'm afraid my only excuse would sound like 'the dog ate my homework'. I just stuffed up!

tinpis - your point is devastatingly valid, and my point was invalid, and embarrassingly so, given how dogmatically I made it. As you say, if a change is made to alternatives before all the oil runs out, it will indeed never run out - we won't be using it. Sounds like BN needs some alternativs already!

[The Chef]

The GA it was at BN (not sure where else needs Avgas at BN). As there is not yet a shortage, one must wonder why fuel companys cant get their $h!t sorted so that there is always fuel available at major airports - especially for the price we pay for it these days.

[tinpis]

A friend drives a turbo diesel Citreon its as quiet and smooth as glass and sips fuel.
I have thought these engines would be useful in any class of light aircraft and of course they will run on avtur.
Does anyone know what the limitations maybe on these engines ? For instance weight, flight at altitude?
I would think a diesel would be much easier to prepare for aircraft use than a petrol auto engine.
Lawyers of course would be poised.
:*

[nzmarty]

the katana twin soon to be used as primary trainer by mcalpine is a diesel.

[tinpis]

Remarkable what you find on google :\

On August 16th, 2004 remarkably, the twin diesel engine DA42 Twin Star was flown from London, Ontario, Canada to Porto, Portugal, Europe with only one stop, in St. John's Newfoundland, Canada.
The leg from London to St.John's (1,300 nm / 2,407 km), took 7 ½ hrs. The trans atlantic leg of (1,900 nm / 3,518 km), from St.John's to Porto Portugal, was completed in 12 ½ hrs.

Had it not been for adverse weather conditions in Europe, the remaining 5 hrs of fuel upon landing in Porto would have been sufficient to reach Guillaumaud's planned destination of Toulouse, France, a planned non stop distance of over (2,500 nm / 4,630 km). Average combined fuel burn for the crossing, flown at 11,000 ft (3,353 m), was an incredible 5.74 gph /22 l (2.87 gph / 11 l per engine)! Guillaumaud set engine power at a fuel conserving 42% and achieved an average ground speed of 152 kts (281.5 km/h).

The total amount of Jet fuel consumed for the crossing, 72 gallons (272 l) cost less than US$ 200! The point to point travel time was considerably faster than any available commercial flight combination, illustrating the Diamond Star's practicality as a personal or business transportation alternative.

This flight represents the first non-stop transatlantic crossing by a diesel engine powered aircraft in general aviation and underlines the efficiency and reliability of the DA42 Twin Star TDI.

Had it not been for adverse weather conditions in Europe, the remaining 5 hrs of fuel upon landing in Porto .....

http://www.diamond-air.at/en/products/DA42/index.htm[

[Ultralights]

Great news! i just dont want to wait the 5 or 10 yrs before diesel powered composite aircraft become the norm for GA in Oz!

I wonder how long before Piper/cessna and other see the light and begin work on their own Modern aircraft?

[gaunty]

Ultralights

I wouldn't hold your breath waiting, this particular part of the GA scene now belongs to the DA's of this world.

What a fantastic acheivement, the only reason I didn't buy a new diesel motor car just recently instead of a petrol turbo is that for reasons I don't understand Oz decided to go with the US diesel standard which is yonks behind the european one where the huge advances in diesel power are being made.

It is changing and when we get Euro standard lo sulfur diesel available goodbye petrol cars.

The gaunty women are off to drive around Europe soon for a couple of months and have done the new car lease routine with one of the "new" diesel Peugeots, I look forward to their report.

[poteroo]

Superior 0-320 & 0-360 ULP Engines

In Experimental Category, these may be part of the answer to availability of avgas.

There's about a 30% saving per litre as well.

happy days,

[MLS-12D]

Didn't phase cars when unleaded came in. Why can't the Lyco or Contis be redesigned to run on unleaded???For many engines (up to and including the P&W R-1830), no re-design is necessary: the STC process to use mogas is essentially a paper exercise. See further Petersen Aviation (http://www.autofuelstc.com/autofuelstc/pa/PetersenAviation.html).

[Creampuff]

MLS-12D

Thanks

I'd be surprised if it's just a paperwork exercise.

Whatever the case, what's the approx cost (in $US) of the STC for, say, an average 180hp injected Lyc/Conti?

[tinpis]

What a fantastic acheivement, the only reason I didn't buy a new diesel motor car just recently instead of a petrol turbo is that for reasons I don't understand Oz decided to go with the US diesel standard which is yonks behind the european one where the huge advances in diesel power are being made .

Gaunty I feel lazy today what do you mean the Europeans are brewing diesel in a different way?
I know they seem to get fantastic economy from the little turbos, they wont run as well here?

[Ultralights]

I own and operate a transport company, running 2 tonne trucks, all deisels of course! Diesel engines are very picky when it comes to fuel quality. a diesel will run perfectly well on any quality, only the amount of soot, and economy is effected,
the newest 2.5 tonne Hino, 4.5 ltr CDI diesel usually gets around 1000Km a tank from 70 lts on a good quality fuel, (usually BP low sulphur) but a load of bad diesel will see no change in performance, only you will get about 5-600 Km from that tank of fuel. and a lot more soot.

basically the fuel quality we get here is the dregs of the world, Premium ULP is the Standard in Japan and the EU, here its an over priced up market fuel. (hence most, if not all European iport cars require Premium ULP Minimum)

the EU standard of fuels, especially diesel is much higher than ours, mainly for environmental concerns, and laws requiring their fuel to be efficient and environmentally friendly (as a fossil fuel can get)

[richarjm]

I suspect no-one's looking at this thread any more but wanted to offer up what my experience has lead me to believe. (4 years in offshore oil and gas).
The techniques for finding and extracting oil are improving at an incredible rate. Fields that would have been completely unviable 10 years ago are now turning a fine profit, even in the North Sea. The middle east has an unimaginable quantity of oil left. I've seen it! The problem is that if we use all the oil we have available to us we may well wreck the atmosphere. I say that as a man who loves flying and hopes for a long career as a pilot:O
Cleaner power sources are emerging although consideable time will be required before they can meet most needs, however i firmly believe that as the bronze age did not end for a lack of bronze neither will our oil age end for a lack of oil.

[scrubed]

No apologies required at all, Creampuff......

Peak Oil is forecast to be reached anywhere from 2005 to 2012. From that point demand will exceed production in by an ever-increasing margin.

Since oil derivatives include avtur and diesel as well as avgas, we can expect all sectors to be affected not just GA. Who the hell really cares about avgas when we'll all be starving and fending off our neighbours with our hunting rifles (oops, I forgot, fcuking Howard made us give them up...) when they come looking to raid our stash of baked beans......

We won't ever quite run out? Yeah that's true, there'll always be some dregs at the bottom of the barrel but really, tin of piss, does this matter? By then it will be that fcuking expensive it may as well have run dry because it will be out of reach of all of us.

Why are you being so peurile about the concept?

As to who we should blame, I'd point the finger at the yanks whose need for 12-lane freeways dominated by single-occupant V8 SUVs sucks the world of dino-juice dry.

Add to that the hordes of well over TWO BILLION chinese and indians, all climbing over each other in droves to CONSUME.... and more every single minute of every single day, and you have a recipe for a rapid decline in fossil fuel reserves.

Why haven't there been any new refineries built in recent years?

Why are we seeing clapped-out old tankers cruising around instead of brand-newies?

Could it be because the rate of discovery of new oil reserves has slid down the back side of the bell-curve????????

No one particularly cares about avgas because they can't think past the impact of paying $1.26 AUD per litre just to run their Toorak Tractor down to the kindy twice a day.

Why should you?

[gaunty]

tinny mate.

The US diesel standard is waay dirtier than the Euros which is ultra clean, low sulfur and waaay kinder on the environment.

The euro cars wont run, at least without choking up on it.

Oz is on the way to it but I suspect that the US dominated manufacturers in Oz aren't all that keen given the investment they have in petrol and size.

BMW have the first of the new diesels here already but we need to have the entire fllet in Oz on it.

Prejudice will be the hardest take to shift.

Mate of mine runs and oilex company in South America, there's heaps of stuff there they know about and as much again they haven't even found yet.

[tinpis]

gaunty I wonder if this stuff (http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s1126872.htm) will be any better?
Someone was going to try and drive from here to Adelaide nn a tank of diesel in a peugot
I dont know what happened to that?

[mattyj]

Can't wait till they start running aircraft on ethanol..two fingers out of the fuel drain with my orange juice would be a free head start on the way to the aeroclub bar:E :E